K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

K.1. Economic Development and Population

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

57:30620 Benhabib, Jess; Nishimura, Kazuo. Endogenous fluctuations in the Barro-Becker theory of fertility. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 29-41 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
Self-generating fluctuations in population growth are explored based on a model of fertility and economic growth. "Our results show that under a broad class of preferences, fertility and per capita incomes not only move together but endogenously oscillate." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: J. Benhabib, New York University, Washington Square, New York, NY 10003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30621 Bental, Benjamin. Capital accumulation and population growth in two sector closed and open economies. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 94-115 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"An overlapping generations model with endogenous capital accumulation and population growth is explored. The rate of return on children is set exogenously, and dictates the required rate of return on capital. If that return is believed to be low, no capital is accumulated. In an international trade context it is shown that a fast population growth economy will have a high interest rate but may accumulate no capital. The policy conclusion is that high population growth countries may be justified in supporting capital accumulation in order to direct domestic investment away from children." The geographical focus is on developed and developing countries.
Correspondence: B. Bental, Israel Institute of Technology, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management Technion, Haifa 3200, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30622 Berthold, Norbert; Pfluger, Michael. Market failure, population growth and government intervention in a life-cycle growth model. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 73-93 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper firstly gives a detailed, modified analytical and graphical description of the allocation process in the one-good Diamond life-cycle growth model. The independence of the optimal growth path and the optimal division of output--making up the Two-Part-Golden rule--is stressed. Market failure resulting from the additional Modigliani-Diamond capital market conditions is discussed. Using an endogenous population growth rate, a more comprehensive 'modified' Two-Part Golden rule...is derived."
Correspondence: N. Berthold, Universitat Hamburg, Edmund-Siemers-Allee 1, 2000 Hamburg 13, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30623 Demeny, Paul. Rural development, population growth, and the international system. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 345-65 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
Global trends in rural development, per capita income, population dynamics, and the international system are examined. The author "outlines some of the conditions that ought to be satisfied if sustained economic progress is to be achieved in the less developed world, and briefly discusses some of the influences emanating from the international system that bear on success or failure in satisfying those conditions of progress. In doing so, special attention...[is] given to outside influences [that affect] domestic demographic change."
Correspondence: P. Demeny, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30624 Gray, H. Peter. "Population drag" and the role of the international sector. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 116-29 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"Differing policies toward international trade and investment in the course of economic development may have implications for the pressure of excess population within a country. The relative merits insofar as population pressures are concerned of an internationalist set of policies are contrasted with those of an inward-looking strategy of import substitution. Internationalist policies as featured in export-led growth strategies, seem to have distinct advantages over a strategy of import substitution provided that the industrialized countries of the world do not set arbitrary limits to the volume of imports from the developing world."
Correspondence: H. P. Gray, Rutgers University, School of Business, New Brunswick, NJ 08903. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30625 Hill, Kenneth. Demographic response to economic shock. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper, No. WPS 652, Apr 1991. 29 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author analyzes the demographic response, particularly changes in mortality, to economic fluctuations. He cites the cases of Chile, 1967-1987; China, 1955-1965; preindustrial England; and developing countries during the great depression. "The apparent lack of response of mortality to the economic crisis of the 1980s may not be surprising. The historical record does not support the existence of strong short-run responses of mortality to economic change, and in some cases does not even support the existence of strong longer-term relationships....The clearly-documented cases of mortality crises, such as the case of China in the late 1950s, have been associated with widespread famine....Thus economic downturns not associated with famine appear to have little short term impact on mortality, whereas famines, whether associated with major economic downturns or not, appear to have large short-term impacts on mortality."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:30626 Sato, Takashi. Finding the balance. Populi, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1991. 46-50 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author advocates the use of rural development programs that create employment opportunities and stimulate local economies, and thus both reduce urbanization and increase food production. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30627 van Praag, Bernard M. S.; Pradhan, Menno P. A flexible programming model to study problems of population economics. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 306-24 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"In this paper, a normative model is constructed in order to calculate optimal growth patterns for [economies] with arbitrary population development, arbitrary social welfare functions, production functions and social security systems. It turns out that in almost all cases an optimal growth pattern is not synonymous with full employment, except in the classical case of exponential population growth." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: B. M. S. van Praag, Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam, Econometric Institute, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, POB 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30628 Wenig, Alois; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Demographic change and economic development. Studies in Contemporary Economics, ISBN 3-540-51140-7. 1989. xii, 325 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The articles in this volume cover issues related to the interaction between demographic processes and economic activities. They are revised and refereed versions of papers presented at a conference on 'Demographic Change and Economic Development' held [in Germany] at the Fernuniversitat Hagen in Fall 1986....The book has two parts. The first part deals with theoretical studies of both macroeconomic and microeconomic nature and with policy issues. The second part is a collection of applied studies." It focuses on economic change and demographic development. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Springer-Verlag, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

57:30629 Al-Asaly, Saif M. Migration, balance of payments and economic growth: the case of the Yemen Arab Republic. Pub. Order No. DA9029158. 1990. 182 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of South Carolina.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(5).

57:30630 Bhattacharyya, Dilip. Interaction between macro-economic activities and demographic changes in selected developing countries. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 233-50 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"A dynamic macro-economic model is specified assuming that the Government minimises a loss function and uses government expenditures and money supply as instruments for control. Through this model we examine the Malthusian theory as well as Simon and Steinmann's theory of population growth and technical progress [in developing countries]." Empirical results from the United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and the Central African Republic are used to examine the theories.
Correspondence: D. Bhattacharyya, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30631 Blanchet, Didier. On interpreting observed relationships between population growth and economic growth: a graphical exposition. Population and Development Review, Vol. 17, No. 1, Mar 1991. 105-14, 202, 204 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Transition theory can explain a lack of observed association or even a positive association between population growth and economic growth following the onset of demographic transition even if the underlying long-term relationship between these variables is negative, because the theory assumes that population growth is, at least partially, driven by economic change, resulting in simultaneity bias. This note demonstrates the existence of such bias through a simple graphical exposition [focusing on developing countries]. The illustration can account for a variety of patterns of association between population growth and economic growth, including the reemergence of a negative correlation at a later stage of development."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30632 Boserup, Ester. Population, the status of women, and rural development. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 45-60 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This essay deals with one...microeconomic [factor], namely the subordinate status of rural women as compared with men of the same age and social group. I consider how women's status varies under three types of family organization and land tenure arrangements prevalent in rural areas, and argue that the response of rural populations to economic and demographic change is more or less flexible depending on the type of family organization....Family organization and the status of women are related to the agricultural system, which in turn is related to population density and technological levels. Therefore, it is possible to simplify the analysis by distinguishing a few major patterns of interrelationships between population, status of women, and rural development that together describe most rural communities in the Third World."
Correspondence: E. Boserup, Casa Campagnola, Nevedone, CH-6614 Brissago, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30633 Bueno Sanchez, Eramis; Valle Rodriguez, Gloria. Population and the standard of living in underdeveloped countries. [Poblacion y nivel de vida en los paises subdesarrollados.] Apr 1990. [viii], 126 pp. Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This study is concerned with the relationship between poverty and demographic factors in the developing world. The authors describe how thinking about the role of population growth in the development process has changed over time and discuss how the available labor force can be utilized more effectively. The key role of women in resolving development problems is stressed.
Correspondence: Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demograficos, Avenida 41, Numero 2003 entre 20 y 22, Playa, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30634 Deng, Yiming. On the transfer of the rural labor force in undeveloped areas in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1989. 263-73 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author describes conditions in underdeveloped rural areas in China and discusses what changes need to be made to transform these areas into ones of higher productivity. Consideration is given to the surplus in and quality of the rural labor force, natural resources, types of crops grown, and government policies concerning development.
Correspondence: Y. Deng, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Rural Development, 5 Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30635 Dharmalingam, A. Agrarian structure and population in India: a selective survey. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 26, No. 26, Jun 29, 1991. A46-62 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to interpret India's demographic regime in general and that of the agrarian population in particular in a historical perspective. The agrarian structure and population are examined on the premise of the salience of the social relations of production. The focus is on the historical emergence of the agrarian class in India and the accompanying processes of population change." The study covers the precolonial, colonial, and postcolonial periods.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:30636 Du, Yajun. Intergenerational exchanges and the system of supporting the aged. Population Research, Vol. 7, No. 3, Sep 1990. 18-25 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author examines intergenerational transfers in China, emphasizing support systems for the elderly. Consideration is given to social security, rural-urban differences, and the role of the family. Proposals are made for the reform of China's social security retirement system.
Correspondence: Y. Du, People's University of China, Institute of Population Research, 39 Haidian Road, Haidian District, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30637 Feige, Edgar L. Monetary methods of estimating informal activities in developing nations. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 211-32 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper presents a simple monetary model for estimating the size and growth of the informal sector in developing nations. The model is empirically estimated for the Peruvian economy under a variety of specifications. Studies of the relationship between demographic change and economic activity are enhanced by knowledge of both the secular and cyclical patterns of growth of the informal economy."
Correspondence: E. L. Feige, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30638 Gilbar, Gad G. Egypt on the way from "laissez-faire" to "soft revolution": population growth, savings behavior, economic growth. [Agypten auf dem Wege vom "Laisser Faire" zur "Soft Revolution": Bevolkerungswachstum, Sparverhalten, Wirtschaftswachstum.] Orient, Vol. 31, No. 1, Mar 1990. 97-109 pp. Hamburg, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Trends in population growth, savings behavior, and economic growth in Egypt during the period of Nasser's rule are examined. An effort is made to analyze the attempted reforms of this period against the background of developments in pre- and post-Nasser Egypt. Topics discussed include birth and death rates, rapid population growth, and the family planning program.
Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

57:30639 Hyden, Goran. Local governance and economic-demographic transition in rural Africa. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 193-211 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This article attempts to explore the role that local institutions may play in [the process of economic and demographic transition] in rural [Sub-Saharan] Africa. 'Local' here refers to institutions above the level of the family and includes all those that have a direct bearing on the livelihood and welfare of the rural population, be they local administration officers, local government officials, cooperatives, self-help groups, other member organizations, or private business. 'Governance' is used instead of 'government' to emphasize that many matters that bear on the economic-demographic transition in rural Africa are handled by institutions other than the official government, whether central or local. We first examine how the conditions of governance in Africa are different from those of other regions of the world, then discuss the implications of these conditions for governance, and finally analyze the extent to which local governance in rural Africa may be a factor in reducing fertility. Kenya and Tanzania will be used as principal empirical cases."
Correspondence: G. Hyden, University of Florida, Department of Political Science, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30640 Krishnaji, N.; Sekhar, P. Satya. Population and agricultural growth: a study in inter-regional variations. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 26, No. 26, Jun 29, 1991. A63-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"The Indian experience of the two decades, 1961-81, offers some scope for analysis of the interrelationships between the components of population growth and the characteristics of agrarian change. A dramatic improvement has taken place during this period in technology and productivity in some parts of the country even as other regions have demonstrably stagnated. Did the prosperous regions experience higher rates of population growth either through higher rates of natural increase or through immigration? What is the demographic picture of areas of stagnation and decline: Are they marked by high rates of mortality and out-migration? One can ask similar questions about the extent to which population pressure has led to land or labour intensification in areas experiencing drastic declines in land-man ratio. This paper is concerned with these questions."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:30641 Lipton, Michael. Responses to rural population growth: Malthus and the moderns. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 215-42 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between population growth and food availability in developing countries. He contrasts Malthusian theories concerning the effects of agricultural productivity on fertility with those of modern theorists. Questions raised include: "How important, in determining fertility change, is couples' demand for net income from children--and hence for child quantity and quality--as opposed to the 'supply' of children from natural fertility, and to the costs of fertility regulation?...How important are institutions (of family, lineage, community, and state) in transmitting--or resisting--pressures, old or new, to reduce fertility?...What is the evidence on 'demographic transition,' and on the effects of income distribution on it?...Brevity also dictates simple assumptions. Most of the following arguments assume a single, food-staple crop; a rural society rather equal internally, and rather closed to external trade and factor movements; a fixed responsiveness to technical progress; and population growth determined only by health status, family size norms, and access to food."
Correspondence: M. Lipton, University of Sussex, Institute of Development Studies, Falmer, Brighton, Sussex BN1 9RH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30642 McNicoll, Geoffrey; Cain, Mead. Institutional effects on rural economic and demographic change. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 3-42 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors examine the effects of demographic change on rural institutions in developing countries. "As background, we begin by sketching the demographic outlines of the rural demographic situation in the Third World and covariant trends in agricultural resources and technology. The essay then lays out the rationale for explicit treatment of institutional contingency at various levels of economic and social organization. The institutional configurations of chief interest here, in addition to property and labor relations, are family patterns, community organization, and government administration. We draw on both topical and country illustrations of rural development-population change relationships. Following from that discussion, the final section deals with the policy issues thereby raised--variants, for the most part, of the dictum 'getting institutions right.'"
Correspondence: G. McNicoll, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30643 McNicoll, Geoffrey; Cain, Mead. Rural development and population: institutions and policy. Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, Suppl., ISBN 0-19-506847-5. LC 90-43047. 1990. vii, 366 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
In 1987, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization convened a meeting of social scientists to discuss how rural development is influenced by demographic change in developing countries, with the aim of building a sound development strategy. "The present volume includes a wide selection of papers presented and discussed at the meeting extensively revised in the light of debate, and three new papers by participants at the meeting." Sections are included on family and gender systems, community and government, property rights, class structure and labor relations, and the international system.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, 200 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30644 Pingali, Prabhu L. Institutional and environmental constraints to agricultural intensification. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 243-60 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This essay reviews and synthesizes case study evidence from Africa and Asia on the institutional and environmental constraints to successful [agricultural] intensification. The following are identified as the major causes of the unsuccessful transition to sustainable permanent cultivation systems: (1) Institutional innovations, especially the evolution of long-term rights to land, although induced by population growth, often tend to occur at a slower pace. (2) Despite secure long-term tenure to land, free rider problems may prevent collective action for making watershed-level investments to prevent land degradation. (3) In marginal environments, the returns to preventive land investments may be low. And (4) government policies may prevent migration from marginal environments despite rapidly declining productivity levels. The first part of this essay describes the population and market demand-induced process of agricultural intensification from shifting cultivation to permanent cultivation systems....The second part of the essay provides a typology of the conditions under which soil fertility degradation and soil erosion occur, along the lines mentioned above."
Correspondence: P. L. Pingali, International Rice Research Institute, Agricultural Economics Department, POB 933, Manila, Philippines. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30645 Sala-Diakanda, Mpemble. Population and development in Africa: what future? [Population et developpement en Afrique: quel avenir?] Annales de l'IFORD, Vol. 11, No. 2, Dec 1987. 37-52 pp. Yaounde, Cameroon. In Fre.
The relationships among socioeconomic development and population factors in Sub-Saharan Africa are reviewed. The emphasis is on what has been achieved in meeting basic human needs, and what should be done to help Africa break out of its current low socioeconomic condition.
Correspondence: M. Sala-Diakanda, Institut de Formation et de Recherche Demographiques, B.P. 1556, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30646 Tangri, Shanti S. A case for some simple analytics of demographic change and economic development. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 205-10 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author reviews methods of analyzing the relationship between population growth and economic development and discusses how that relationship affects policy-making in developing countries.
Correspondence: S. S. Tangri, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08903. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30647 Tapinos, G.; Blanchet, D.; Horlacher, D. E. Consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries. [Consequences de la croissance demographique rapide dans les pays en developpement.] Congres et Colloques, No. 5, ISBN 2-7332-4005-6. 1991. xi, 367 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France; U.N. Population Division: New York, New York. In Fre.
These are the proceedings of an international conference on the consequences of rapid population growth in developing countries, held in New York in August 1988. The papers are grouped into chapters on global trends in population and economic growth; adaptations to rapid demographic growth; specific aspects of rapid demographic growth; and normative problems. An English version of these proceedings is scheduled for publication.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30648 Thangkasemvathana, Benjaporn. Fertility change and economic development in Taiwan. Pub. Order No. DA9100241. 1990. 169 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Missouri at Columbia.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(8).

57:30649 United Nations. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development (New York, New York). Workshop on population and development, Uganda: Jinja, Uganda, 11-15 October, 1988. Proceedings and recommendations. No. TCD/SEM.90/6; UGA-85-P03, 1990. xii, 203 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
These are the proceedings and recommendations from a workshop on population and development held in Uganda in 1988. The first part presents eight papers on aspects of the relationship between population and development in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the focus on Uganda. The second part presents the background papers prepared for the workshop. These cover topics such as population growth and basic needs, spatial distribution, food supply and agricultural development, women's roles, environmental issues, and the integration of population policy in development planning.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of Technical Co-operation for Development, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30650 Wang, Sijun; Wu, Hanliang. A very rapid urbanization in rural area under the Wenzhou economic model. Population Research, Vol. 7, No. 3, Sep 1990. 26-31 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The authors analyze urbanization and economic development in the Wenzhou City area of China since 1980. While the region is popularly regarded as a model of development, the authors note the lack of a solid industrial base. They call for increased investment by the state for industrial construction and the liberalization of household registration to permit increased migration of merchants and small entrepreneurs from rural towns to cities.
Correspondence: S. Wang, Hangzhou University, Population Research Centre, 34 Tian Mu Shan Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30651 Wang, Xiangming. The impact of China's rural industrialization upon the urbanization of population and its theoretical significance. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989. 11-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author examines the impact of industrialization on urbanization and the rural structure in China. "The development of rural industries and industrialization of rural areas are the most feasible and effective ways to help in the transference of rural population and...urbanization. The growth of rural industries will help expand and re-direct rural labor from agricultural resources to non-agricultural resources, to the processing of farm produce and by-products, to pre- and pro-production services for agriculture and to cooperation with urban industries....The results will include the expansion of laboring fields, a more elaborate social division of labor, changes in social, economic and employment structures as well as an increase in employment opportunities...."
Correspondence: X. Wang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Population Research Institute, 5 Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing 100732, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

57:30652 Blanchet, Didier; Kessler, Denis. Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, May 1991. 137-54 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies....We will first present the model for the pension system and the economy and discuss a general one-parameter form for the intergenerational utility function. We will then present the simulated optimal paths for different numerical specifications of the model and the utility function. The last section will show by how much a simpler policy with fixed transfers and purely individual funding can depart from optimal paths...."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, F-75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30653 Cohen, S. I.; Tuyl, J. M. C. Growth and equity effects of changing demographic structures in the Netherlands: simulations within a social accounting matrix. Economic Modelling, Vol. 8, No. 1, Jan 1991. 3-15 pp. Guildford, England. In Eng.
"This paper deals with the economic consequences of a changing demography in an industrialized country, namely the Netherlands. The analytical framework chosen is that of general equilibrium as statistically given by the social accounting matrix (SAM) in which we introduce households by size for the present economic demographic situation (1981) and for a future simulated situation (2010) featuring in particular a relative increase in one-person households (individualization). The income (output) multipliers of both SAMs show a positive growth bias towards three and more person households and towards mining, public utilities, trade and banking."
Correspondence: S. I. Cohen, Erasmus University, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:30654 Coleman, David. Demographic trends in the industrial world: Europe's declining population? Economic Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 5, Jun-Jul 1989. 6-10 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author examines some of the economic and social consequences of a potential population decline in Europe between 1990 and 2020. The trends discussed, which are affecting below-replacement fertility in developed countries, include "life expectation of 75 or more, birth rates chronically low, actual or incipient population decline, age-structures where the numbers of the elderly approach or exceed the numbers of children, a fragmented family pattern and a small average household size, [and] substantial and growing non-Western racial minorities."
Correspondence: D. Coleman, University of Oxford, Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:30655 Drissen, E.; van Winden, F. Social security in a general equilibrium model with endogenous government behavior. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, May 1991. 89-110 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In this paper attention is focused on the economic and political effects of an aging population. For that purpose, a general equilibrium model is used that allows for an endogenous analysis of decision making on government policies. We concentrate here on the effects of an aging population on expenditures and levels of social security benefits, the provision of public goods and services, the private output and intergenerational conflicts. Special attention will be paid to the effects of changes in the retirement age and in capital endowments. Furthermore, the effects of issues related to aging, as changes in the political influence structure and the motive of other-directedness by others, are investigated."
Correspondence: F. van Winden, University of Amsterdam, Department of Economics, Section Microeconomics, Jodenbreestraat 23, 1011 NH Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30656 Gauthier, Herve. The economically active population in an era of low fertility. [La population active dans un regime de faible fecondite.] Action Nationale, Vol. 81, No. 4, Apr 1991. 527-41 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
The links between demographic trends and the evolution of the labor force are analyzed in the context of Quebec, Canada. Four aspects are considered: the presence of children, the numerical changes between generations, migration, and demographic aging. The author notes that consequences of current trends include increased participation in the labor force by women and young people.
Correspondence: H. Gauthier, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30657 Hjerppe, Reino T.; Summanen, Kari. Population development and the public sector economy in Finland. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 29, 1991. 5-27 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The article deals with the effects of population aging on the public economy and social expenditures [in Finland]. Possible ways to avoid unwanted economic development caused by population aging are also discussed. The article starts by reviewing...public finance and population development since [the] 1960s....Future trends are discussed in the following section....The final section concerns the possibilities of influencing population development. The authors review economic theories concerning population development and present a microeconomic model for fertility in modern society, discuss population policy measures especially with regard to the Finnish society and try to examine to what extent family policy support has influenced fertility. In addition, the impact of various alternatives for population and economic development on future social expenditures is described."
Correspondence: R. T. Hjerppe, Government Institute for Economic Research, Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30658 Kephart, George C. Economic restructuring and out-migration from United States counties. Pub. Order No. DA9033780. 1990. 318 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(9).

57:30659 Luptacik, M.; Schmoranz, I. An extension of a static input-output model for demographic-economic analysis. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 253-71 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the modelling of demographic-economic linkages within a static Leontief input-output model. The emphasis of the paper is the quantitative analysis of economic consequences (production of goods and services, employment and the financial equilibrium of the public retirement system) of a change in the exogenously given demographic variables. Using [an] activity-commodity framework, useful information about demographic and economic multiplier relationships is obtained. The application of the model is demonstrated with reference to data for Austria. The computations show a significant structural effect and not a negligible impact for the labour market."
Correspondence: M. Luptacik, Universitat Wien, Institut fur Okonometrie und Operations Research Technische, Dr. Karl Lueger-Ring 1, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30660 Masson, Paul R.; Tryon, Ralph W. Macroeconomic effects of projected population aging in industrial countries. International Monetary Fund Staff Paper, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1990. 453-85 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The effects of population aging [in developed countries] are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased in all countries, and net foreign assets would be increased in the United States and decreased in the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan."
Correspondence: P. R. Masson, International Monetary Fund, Research Department, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20431. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:30661 Peters, Wolfgang. Public pensions in transition: an optimal policy path. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, May 1991. 155-75 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"The main purpose of this paper is to analyze problems of financing an old-age insurance when birth rates are low and population declines or fertility fluctuates with time....[The author] investigates a theoretical model which analyzes the welfare optimal combination of private savings via the capital market and the state forced savings via a PAYG [pay-as-you-go] financed public pension system. Long-run effects as well as short-run implications are considered. The economic properties of an optimal steady state are determined and additionally an optimal transition path--the best feasible conversion policy--which leads to the new steady state is specified."
Correspondence: W. Peters, University of Bonn, Department of Economics, Adenauerallee 24-42, W-5300 Bonn 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30662 Recktenwald, Horst C. The decline in fertility--long-term consequences. A symposium of the Academy of Sciences and Literature, Mainz, June 22-23, 1988. [Der Ruckgang der Geburten--Folgen auf langere Sicht. Ein Symposion der Akademie der Wissenschaften und der Literatur, Mainz, 22.-23. Juni 1988.] Okonomische Wissenschaft und Technisch-Politische Evolution, ISBN 3-87881-046-6. 1989. 336 pp. Verlag Wirtschaft und Finanzen: Dusseldorf, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This work contains papers presented at a symposium held in Mainz, Germany, in June 1988. The symposium focused on the long-term socioeconomic consequences of fertility decline in West Germany. The first group of papers deals with causes of the current demographic situation, forecasts of future trends, and the possibilities and limitations of population policy. The second section covers the impact of a declining population on economic growth, public finance, the labor market, spatial distribution of the population, the family, education, social security, and public health. A final paper deals with policy consequences.
Correspondence: Verlag Wirtschaft und Finanzen, Postfach 1102, Kasernenstrasse 67, D-4000 Dusseldorf 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30663 Schneider, Ulrike. Effects of population dynamics on the demand for consumer goods: previous development and future tendencies. [Auswirkungen der Bevolkerungsdynamik auf die Konsumguternachfrage: bisherige Entwicklung und zukunftige Tendenzen.] Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 68, 1991. ix, 132 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
The impact of demographic trends on the demand for consumer goods in West Germany is analyzed. Changes in mortality, fertility, and migration from the 1960s to 1989 are first examined, and projections to the year 2020 are reviewed. The effects of population decrease, smaller household size, and demographic aging on consumption are then investigated.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, 6200 Wiesbaden 1, Postfach 5528, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30664 Steinmann, Gunter. Malthusian crises, Boserupian escapes and longrun economic progress. In: Demographic change and economic development, edited by Alois Wenig and Klaus F. Zimmermann. 1989. 3-28 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The model presented in this paper features the characteristics of long-run growth cycles in West European economic history. Population is considered as the key factor for the dynamic process. Population growth leads to capital dilution in the short run but increases the rate of technical progress in the long run. Population density also determines the optimum technology and, therefore, the technique to be adopted. The model takes into account all three functions of population. By implementing a production function for new technical knowledge and the possibility of technical choices into a neoclassical growth model, we were able to explain and simulate the historical experience of recurrent and persistent economic crises, technical revolutions, temporary escapes from crises and, finally, unlimited and steady economic progress."
Correspondence: G. Steinmann, Universitat-Gesamthochschule Paderborn, Warburger Strasse 100, 4790 Paderborn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30665 Wildasin, David E. The marginal cost of public funds with an aging population. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 4, No. 2, May 1991. 111-35 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"As populations in the United States and other advanced economies grow older, the burden of social security and health care financing is expected to rise markedly. Payroll, income, and other taxes on working populations are projected to rise accordingly. The marginal welfare cost to workers of social security and other public expenditures is analyzed within the context of a two-period life cycle model. By relaxing separability assumptions that have become common in the literature, the theoretical structure properly incorporates the effect of these public expenditures on labor supply. Comparative statics results indicate that changing age structure is likely to raise the marginal welfare to workers of social security, education, and other public expenditures. Illustrative calculations for the United States confirm this result, suggesting that the cost to workers of incremental social security benefits may easily double by 2025-2050."
Correspondence: D. E. Wildasin, Indiana University, Department of Economics, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

57:30666 Downing, Thomas E.; Lezberg, Sharon; Williams, Cara; Berry, Leonard. Population change and environment in central and eastern Kenya. Environmental Conservation, Vol. 17, No. 2, Summer 1990. 123-33 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"This paper, in compiling a case-study of six districts in Central and Eastern Provinces of Kenya, addresses the two poles of theory regarding population, environment, and economy--restricted growth and degradation versus induced change and intensification. The paper presents data on population change, and explores its relevance for changing patterns of resource use and economic opportunity....Changes in population density between the 1969 and 1979 censuses are compiled, using regions of agroclimatic potential as surrogates for indicators of economic development....Trends in urbanization are also analysed, to illuminate the dynamics of rural-urban linkages."
Correspondence: T. E. Downing, University of Birmingham, School of Geography, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (ST).

57:30667 Dyson, Tim. On the demography of South Asian famines. Part II. Population Studies, Vol. 45, No. 2, Jul 1991. 279-97 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This paper "deals with the 1943-44 famine in Bengal and the 1974-75 famine in Bangladesh. The paper presents important and hitherto unanalysed demographic data on the Bengal famine....It argues that because of flaws in the data which have been used, there is a need to reconsider some of the judgements which have been made about the demographic consequences of both the 1943-44 and 1974-75 famines. It is contended that some serious misconceptions have arisen concerning short-term demographic responses to famine. Finally, possible implications for famines in other parts of the world are discussed."
For Part I of this study, also published by the same author in 1991, see 57:20657.
Correspondence: T. Dyson, London School of Economics, Department of Population Studies, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30668 Gendreau, Francis; Meillassoux, Claude; Schlemmer, Bernard; Verlet, Martin. The ghosts of Malthus: food and population imbalances. [Les spectres de Malthus: desequilibres alimentaires, desequilibres demographiques.] ISBN 2-85139-102-X. 1991. 442 pp. Etudes et Documentation Internationales [EDI]: Paris, France; Institut Francais de Recherche pour le Developpement en Cooperation [ORSTOM]: Paris, France. In Eng; Fre.
These are the proceedings of a conference held in Paris, March 14-16, 1990, on the topics of imbalances between population and food supplies. The main themes of the interdisciplinary conference were demographic transition and social reproduction; tensions and ruptures; theoretical questions; and policy implications. The papers, of which 19 are in French and 3 in English, are organized under five headings. The first section looks at theoretical aspects of the Malthusian relationship between food supply and population. The second presents case studies of New Guinea, Gabon, Togo, Ecuador, the Society Islands, and Cameroon. The third section looks at women's roles in the Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Bangladesh, and Zaire. The fourth deals with three countries at war, Mozambique, Guatemala, and Viet Nam. A final section examines problems in Indonesia, Nigeria, and Ghana.
Correspondence: Editions de l'ORSTOM, 70 route d'Aulnay, 93143 Bondy Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30669 Hill, Allan G. Demographic responses to food shortages in the Sahel. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 168-92 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this essay, my main interest is in demographic changes associated with food shortages arising not from war but from other dislocations or breakdowns of the economy--some provoked by natural calamities but most if not all having roots in the structure and organization of production and its social and cultural context....I shall argue that there is a marked historical break between the past and the post-independence era in Africa, specifically in the Sahel, that affects the way in which food crises are related to demographic trends. The sharpness of this break has been underestimated, since the focus in seeking explanations has wrongly been on the climate and ecology rather than on the more important processes of social change and adjustment. These processes operate on at least three levels, international, national, and local, each of which has a bearing on food production and availability."
Correspondence: A. G. Hill, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30670 Hinrichsen, Don. Nepal--struggling for a common future. Populi, Vol. 18, No. 1, Mar 1991. 43-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author "writes about the efforts of the Government of Nepal, international agencies and NGOs to reverse 30 years of high population growth and environmental neglect with the development of basic health care and family planning services."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30671 Hinrichsen, Don; Marshall, Alex. Population and the food crisis. Populi, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1991. 24-34 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors examine the effects of population growth on the food supply in developing countries and offer some strategies for improvement. "Explosive population growth in the developing countries is damaging the environment and threatening food production beyond subsistence levels. Ensuring world food security will require an integrated approach that combines agricultural production with water management, soil conservation, and afforestation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30672 Jodha, N. S. Depletion of common property resources in India: micro-level evidence. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 261-83 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This analysis of village- and farm-level data from 82 villages demonstrates the very important role played by common property resources [CPRs] in the sustenance of rural people in dry tropical regions of India. In recent decades, CPRs have declined both in their area and in their productivity. Population growth leading to increased pressure on land has historically contributed to decline in CPRs, which often represented an extensive pattern of land use. This is borne out by the comparative analysis of the initial period (1950-52) in the present case. Following the initial period, however, the effect of rapid population growth must be assessed in conjunction with public policies, which probably would have led to decline of CPRs even in the absence of population pressure. The erosion of traditional effective CPR management systems is clearly a consequence or side effect of public interventions."
Correspondence: N. S. Jodha, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Farming Systems Division, 4/80 Jawalakhel, POB 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30673 McNicoll, Geoffrey. Social organization and ecological stability under demographic stress. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 147-67 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author analyzes two groups of factors that affect the economic and ecological outcomes of population growth in developing countries. "One set of factors influencing the outcome describes the resilience of the ecosystem under human impact--how difficult is it to raise its productivity without endangering ecological stability?...A second group of factors influencing economic-ecological outcomes describes the nature and intensity of human activities impinging on the ecosystem....Ultimately, economic-ecological outcomes under conditions of population growth are determined by the interactions of these two groups of factors. For exposition, however, it is convenient to start by discussing the factors separately. I take most of my illustrations from alpine agrarian settings, particularly in South Asia, where the population-environment nexus is becoming fairly well documented and the time-scale of many relevant processes is foreshortened."
Correspondence: G. McNicoll, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30674 Ness, Gayl D. Population, development and global change. Populi, Vol. 18, No. 1, Mar 1991. 24-33 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Population growth and economic development lead to increased energy use, especially fossil fuel consumption, resulting in the release of greenhouse gases. The author traces the history of population growth and its effect on global environmental change." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: G. D. Ness, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30675 Wahren, Carl. Population, environment, development: an inseparable troika. Populi, Vol. 18, No. 1, Mar 1991. 4-23 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Environmental security, poverty eradication and population programmes are now integral parts of the international development agenda. The author discusses the impact of population growth on development and the environment in the developing countries and the need for a holistic policy to balance environmental needs with population growth."
Correspondence: C. Wahren, OECD Development Co-operation Directorate, Aid Management Division, 2 rue Andre-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

57:30676 Barrett, Richard E.; Bridges, William P.; Semyonov, Moshe; Gao, Xiaoyuan. Female labor force participation in urban and rural China. Rural Sociology, Vol. 56, No. 1, Spring 1991. 1-21 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"The objective of this study is to examine female labor force participation and its determinants in rural and urban China....With the use of data on countries and cities...from the 1-percent sample of the 1982 census of the People's Republic of China, it was found that female labor force participation is likely to rise in areas with increased agricultural employment, educational levels, proportion of female-headed households, and higher male-to-female sex ratios....Although, on average, rural places have slightly higher levels of female labor force participation, when other variables are controlled, urban places have a higher rate of female participation. In addition, the findings suggest that market factors (i.e., education) are more likely to determine the rate of female labor force participation in urban areas; whereas demographic and social factors (i.e., sex ratio and household structure) play a more important role in explaining the female labor force participation in rural counties."
Correspondence: R. E. Barrett, University of Illinois, Department of Sociology, Chicago, IL 60680. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30677 Blanchet, Didier; Marchand, Olivier. Adapting to a shortage of labor beyond the year 2000. [Au-dela de l'an 2000, s'adapter a une penurie de main-d'oeuvre.] Economie et Statistique, No. 243, May 1991. 61-8, 111, 113 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Future labor force trends in France are reviewed. The impact of these trends on the current disequilibrium between job supply and demand is assessed. Factors considered include increases in immigration, extension of working life, female employment, and increased productivity.
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30678 Breman, Jan. Agrarian change and class conflict in Gujarat, India. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 301-23 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
Using South Gujarat as an example, the author examines the consequences for labor of the changes brought on by agricultural development in many regions of India during the last two decades. The discussion covers topics including the capitalist mode of production, land ownership, labor supply, labor migration, financial inequalities, and government policy.
Correspondence: J. Breman, University of Amsterdam, Centre for Asian Studies, Spui 21, 1012 WX Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30679 Feng, Litian; Wang, Shuxin; Meng, Haohan. A survey on the costs in the upbringing of new labor forces. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1989. 21-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors analyze human capital investment, with a focus on the cost of raising a child to age 16 in China. Results indicate that investment in children increases with family income, parents' educational level, and smaller family size.
Correspondence: L. Feng, Beijing College of Economics, Institute of Population Science, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30680 Gauthier, Herve. Changes in the age structure of the labor force by occupation in Quebec, 1981-1986. [Changements dans la structure par age de la population active selon la profession au Quebec, 1981-1986.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 19, No. 2, Autumn 1990. 215-40 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author examines trends in the age structure and size of the labor force in Quebec, Canada, for the period 1981-1986. "Using simulations, the author shows that the occupational structure of workers as a whole is less influenced by the decrease in the number of young workers...than by occupational changes observed among young workers."
Correspondence: H. Gauthier, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30681 Kempeneers, Marianne. Career breaks among Canadian women: permanence and change. [La discontinuite professionnelle des femmes au Canada: permanence et changements.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1991. 9-28 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Have recent cohorts of women been more successful in remaining in the labour market than their elders? To answer this question retrospective data are needed, extending over several cohorts and containing information about entries into and exits from the labour force. In this paper the data comes from the Survey of Birth Rates in Canada, carried out in 1984, on cohorts of women born between 1934 and 1965. The data make it possible to trace breaks in employment (defined as periods of at least 12 months outside the labour market) in different cohorts....The question...arises whether the presence of children affects the frequency and duration of such career breaks. A comparison of career breaks and birth rates suggests that the two do not seem to be related. The presence of children is no doubt a factor, but its impact has always been weak, and has tended to decrease from one cohort to the next."
Correspondence: M. Kempeneers, Universite de Montreal, Departement de Sociologie, CP 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30682 Livingstone, Ian. Population growth and rural labor absorption in Eastern and Southern Africa. In: Rural development and population: institutions and policy, edited by Geoffrey McNicoll and Mead Cain. 1990. 284-98 pp. Population Council: New York, New York; Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author describes rural labor absorption in eastern and southern Africa, with a focus on the situation in Kenya. "Rapid population growth in the countries of eastern and southern Africa, together with the attraction of the urban formal sector, might have been expected to stimulate high rates of rural-to-urban migration and greatly worsening problems of urban unemployment....In fact, much of the expanding population was absorbed in the rural areas. A follow-up study of Kenya...found that the rural areas served as a very effective 'sponge,' absorbing and retaining a great part of the additional population and labor....Also like a sponge, however, the rural areas will at some point become saturated. The labor excess may then begin to appear quite rapidly, and in many places at once. This possibility motivates interest in the processes that have been in operation within the rural sector affecting income distribution, on-farm and off-farm employment, and access to land....The policies in all countries of the region, many with agricultural resource bases far inferior to Kenya's, must be to extend the effectiveness of the rural 'sponge' as long as possible."
Correspondence: I. Livingstone, University of East Anglia, School of Development Studies, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30683 Neyer, Gerda. Children or profession: there is no alternative. The effects of child care leave provisions on women in the labor force in Austria. [Kinder oder Beruf: eine Alternative, die keine ist. Auswirkungen von Mutterschaftsleistungen auf die Arbeitsmarktsituation von Frauen in Osterreich.] Demographische Informationen 1990/91, [1991]. 53-9, 154 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"The author presents results of a study investigating the effects of maternity and child care leave on women's participation in the labour force in Austria. The data cited show that maternity legislation so far has not significantly reduced the risk of unemployment for women. The unemployment rate for women on maternity and child care leave is about four times as high as the average for actively employed women aged 15-44."
Correspondence: G. Neyer, Instituts fur Demographie, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2b, 1033 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30684 Oppong, Christine. Relationships between women's work and demographic behaviour: some research evidence in West Africa. World Employment Programme Research Working Paper, No. 175, ISBN 92-2-107989-9. Apr 1991. v, 53 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"This working paper focuses on the inter-relationship between women's labour force participation and the sexual division of labour on the one hand and demographic behaviour, especially fertility on the other--focusing on the context of West Africa and Ghana. For example it calls attention to the ways in which the complex system of social norms, kin networks and kin support/responsibilities in West Africa affect the extent to which child care and labour force activity/work are incompatible and conflictual; and how the complex nature of labour force activity...affects our ability to measure labour force activity accurately, as well as relate it to other behaviour such as reproduction....[The] paper goes on to provide an agenda of important policy relevant research topics for West Africa...." The paper is also available in French.
Correspondence: International Labour Office, 4 route des Morillons, CH-1211, Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30685 Presser, Harriet B.; Kishor, Sunita. Economic development and occupational sex segregation in Puerto Rico: 1950-80. Population and Development Review, Vol. 17, No. 1, Mar 1991. 53-85, 201, 203 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"In this article we address the issue of occupational sex segregation in Puerto Rico, a country that has recently undergone rapid industrialization. We demonstrate that it is possible for a country to experience a steady decline in occupational sex segregation at a time when women's labor force participation rates are not steadily rising, and attribute this to the nature of the development process, which differentially affected men and women. Moreover, we provide data to suggest that there might be substantial occupational sex segregation, with most women working in traditionally female jobs, at a time when, overall, women's median annual earnings reportedly are close to those of men--and, indeed, may exceed men's earnings." Data are from decennial censuses for the period 1950-1980.
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 426).
Correspondence: H. B. Presser, University of Maryland, Center on Population, Gender, and Social Inequality, Baltimore, MD 21201. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30686 Saw, Swee-Hock. Population and labour force growth and patterns in ASEAN countries. Philippine Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 25, No. 3-4, Sep-Dec 1988. 187-203 pp. Quezon City, Philippines. In Eng.
"The paper shows that the diverse labor dimensions prevailing in the ASEAN region can be attributed to changes in the structure of the society and economy in the course of recent economic development. It observes the considerable variety in the growth of the population and its effect on the labor force in the ASEAN region....The paper details the similarity and diversity in the level and type of labor force participation rates. A common feature shared by ASEAN countries is a general pattern in the age-specific participation rate of men. In contrast, the women, aside from participating in the labor force at a much lower level than men at almost all ages, display diverse patterns of participation over the working age range. Lastly, the distribution of the labor force according to major industrial sectors in the six ASEAN countries is presented...."
Correspondence: S.-H. Saw, National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 0511. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:30687 Shihadeh, Edward S. The prevalence of husband-centered migration: employment consequences for married mothers. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 53, No. 2, May 1991. 432-44 pp. Saint Paul, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This study examines the employment-related returns to migration among married mothers in Canada. Based on a 1987 sample of migrant couples, this analysis shows that wives most often defer to their husbands in the decision to move. A subsidiary role for wives was most apparent when husbands indicated an employment reason for moving and was also positively associated with the annual income of the married couple....The odds of obtaining postmigration employment were substantially decreased for those wives who deferred to their husbands in the reason to move. It is argued that these findings can be conceptualized by gender-role theory, which emphasizes the familial roles husbands and wives have been socialized to accept."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 459).
Correspondence: E. S. Shihadeh, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Sociology, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).