Volume 57 - Number 3 - Fall 1991

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

57:30060 Tsubouchi, Yoshihiro. A re-examination of Raffles's statistics on the population of Java in the early nineteenth century: some problems of early censuses. Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 28, No. 4, Mar 1991. 481-93 pp. Kyoto, Japan. In Eng.
The author evaluates the reliability of the population statistics for early nineteenth-century Java, Indonesia, which were published in 1817 by T. S. Raffles. Data on household size, sex ratio, age structure, and Chinese and other nationalities are analyzed. It is noted that a main problem with the data is underestimation of household sizes.
This is a translation of the Japanese article published in 1990 and cited in 57:10075.
Correspondence: Y. Tsubouchi, Kyoto University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Shimoadachi-cho 46, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

57:30061 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas (Havana, Cuba). Population by province, municipality, and zone, by sex and age group, on December 31, 1988. Median population by province and zone. Provincial and municipal population estimates by major age group. [Poblacion por provincias, municipios y zonas, segun sexos y grupos de edades, al 31 de diciembre de 1988. Poblacion media por provincias y zonas. Estimaciones provinciales y municipales de la poblacion por grandes grupos de edades.] Estudios y Datos sobre la Poblacion Cubana Publicacion, No. 18, May 1989. xix, 230 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This annual publication contains information on the resident population of Cuba on December 31, 1988, at the national, provincial, and municipal levels. Data are included on population by age group, sex, and urban or rural area. In addition, the publication provides municipal and provincial estimates of the working-age population by sex, urban or rural area, and age group, as well as estimates for Cuba and its provinces of the mean population by age group, sex, and urban or rural area.
For the 1986 edition, published in 1987, see 54:20086.
Correspondence: Comite Estatal de Estadisticas, Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas, Gaveta Postal 6016, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30062 Ernst, Friedhelm. Population trends among Palestinians between 1952 and 1987: a critical study of available demographic material. [Die Bevolkerungsentwicklung der Palastinenser zwischen 1952 und 1987: eine kritische Untersuchung vorliegenden demographischen Materials.] Ethnizitat und Gesellschaft Occasional Paper, No. 19, ISBN 3-923446-66-7. 1990. 63 pp. Das Arabische Buch: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
Various estimates of the size and growth of the Palestinian population between 1952 and 1987 are critically reviewed. Sources of data include individual authors, the PLO, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). Breakdowns for Israel, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, Arab countries, and non-Arab countries are provided. The findings indicate that the total Palestinian Arab population throughout the world is over 5 million and that rapid population growth is continuing. Political implications are also discussed.
Correspondence: Das Arabische Buch, Horstweg 2, D-1000 Berlin 19, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30063 Laos. Government (Vientiane, Laos). Population of Lao PDR (01-03-1985). 1986. Vientiane, Laos. In Eng.
This report includes population estimates for Laos in 1985. Data are included on families and households, age and sex distribution, population by district or province, and educational status.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

57:30064 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica. Direccion Tecnica de Demografia (Lima, Peru). Peru: projections of the population aged less than five by single years, by district, 1990. [Peru: proyecciones de poblacion de menores de cinco anos por edades simples, segun distritos, 1990.] Boletin Especial, No. 13, Dec 1990. 110 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates for children aged under five are presented for Peru for 1990. The estimates are provided by region, department, province, and district for individual years of age from under one year of age to age four. These estimates are based on the revised projections for Peru for the period 1980-2025.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica, Direccion Tecnica de Demografia, Avenida 28 de Julio No. 1056, Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30065 Sommer, Bettina. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1989. [Eheschliessungen, Gerbuten und Sterbefalle, 1989.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 1, Jan 1991. 28-32 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, and deaths in 1989 in both West and East Germany. Comparative data for earlier years since 1970 are also provided. Topics discussed include marriages by previous marital status, age at marriage, illegitimate births, age-specific birth rates, and life expectancy.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:30066 Sommer, Bettina; Fleischer, Henning. Population trends, 1989. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1989.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 2, Feb 1991. 81-8 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends in West Germany in 1989, with a focus on international migration. Topics covered include live births, deaths, total migration, immigration and emigration of Germans and foreigners, and population size. Sections are also included on population trends in East Germany and preliminary findings for 1990.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:30067 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). World urbanization prospects 1990: estimates and projections of urban and rural populations and of urban agglomerations. No. ST/ESA/SER.A/121, Pub. Order No. E.91.XIII.11. ISBN 92-1-151232-8. 1991. viii, 223 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This publication presents the 1990 revision of the United Nations estimates and projections of urban and rural populations and of urban agglomerations for countries, regions and major areas of the world." The data are presented for each five-year interval from 1950 to 2025 for regions and major areas and from 1950 to 2000 for countries.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30068 Uruguay. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay). Uruguay: population estimates and projections by age and sex. The whole country, 1950-2025. [Uruguay: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion por edad y sexo. Total del pais, 1950-2025.] No. LC/DEM/DGF/R.9, 1989. 86 pp. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos: Montevideo, Uruguay; U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Uruguay from 1950 to 2025. They are based on census data, including the census of 1985, and on data from the vital statistics system. The initial text describes current population trends, and includes sections on fertility, mortality, and international migration.
If requesting this study from CELADE, ask for Document No. DOCPAL 13951.00.
Correspondence: Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.

57:30069 Wolter, Kirk M.; Causey, Beverley D. Evaluation of procedures for improving population estimates for small areas. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 86, No. 414, Jun 1991. 278-84 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"We provide and illustrate methods for evaluating across-the-board ratio estimation and synthetic estimation, two techniques that might be used for improving population estimates for small areas. The methods emphasize determination of a break-even accuracy of knowledge concerning externally obtained population totals, which marks the point at which improvement occurs." The techniques are illustrated using 1980 U.S. census data.
Correspondence: K. M. Wolter, A. C. Nielsen Company, Northbrook, IL 60062. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

57:30070 Dinh, Quang Chi. Population aging will be greater than expected. [Le vieillissement de la population sera plus important que prevu.] Economie et Statistique, No. 243, May 1991. 53-60, 111, 113 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Population forecasts for France are reassessed in the light of data from the 1990 census. The author notes that although the total fertility rate is close to the anticipated 1.8, mortality is lower than expected. In consequence, the increase in the number of the elderly will be faster and larger than was originally projected.
Correspondence: Q. C. Dinh, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 Boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30071 Greenwood, M. J.; Hunt, G. L. Forecasting state and local population growth with limited data: the use of employment-migration relationships and trends in vital rates. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 23, No. 7, Jul 1991. 987-1,005 pp. London, England. In Eng.
In this study, the rate of growth of state and local populations in the United States is related to the growth rate of national employment, and to demographic and economic features of the regions concerned, in order to make more realistic long-term population projections. Both natural increase and migration are taken into account in the model developed. "The model is estimated for two regions, the El Paso, TX, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) and the State of New Mexico. Several statistical problems arise because of the limited number of available time-series observations. Fully dynamic historical simulations track the population quite closely, in one case never differing from the actual value by more than 1.17% and in the other never differing by more than 1.36%."
Correspondence: M. J. Greenwood, University of Colorado, Department of Economics, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

57:30072 Hungary. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal (Budapest, Hungary). The population of Hungary, 1986-2006. Regional population projections. [Magyarorszag nepessege, 1986-2006. Teruleti nepessegeloreszamitas.] Apr 1987. 443 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections by age and sex for Hungary are presented by region up to the year 2006. They are based on data from the 1980 census and the vital statistics system. Four alternative projections are given for each region, primarily with regard to alternative assumptions concerning fertility trends.
Correspondence: Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly U.5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30073 Kotowska, Irena. Application of the LIPRO model to project Poland's population to 2050. [Zastosowanie modelu LIPRO do prognozowania ludnosci Polski do roku 2050.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 311, 1991. 196 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Demographic projections for Poland to 2050, which were developed using a multidimensional projection model called LIPRO, are presented. The initial three chapters discuss the LIPRO model, some basic information on the computer program, and the use of the model for projecting Poland's population. The next chapter provides selected projection results, including population size and composition by age, sex, residence, and marital status.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-544 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30074 Kupiszewski, Marek. Application of two types of migration data to multiregional demographic projections. Geographia Polonica, No. 54, 1988. 43-61 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author presents a comparative analysis of the use of multistate models developed by Andrei Rogers with two types of migration data. A Rogers-type model is used to forecast population changes by urban and rural region, sex, and age for the period 1978-1983 using official Polish data. The results show the importance of selecting the data to be used in making population forecasts, and demonstrate the usefulness of a model of this type for making population forecasts.
Correspondence: M. Kupiszewski, Polish Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, 00-927 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:30075 Lagerne Redie, Maria; Kovacs, Tibor. On regional population projections in the mid-1980s. [Teruleti nepessegeloreszamitasokrol a 80-as evek kozepen.] Demografia, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1988. 11-25 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The authors assess the reliability and usefulness of regional population projections for Hungary covering the period 1986-2006. They point out the improvements and the shortcomings of the projections and then analyze the major trends indicated.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30076 Larrivee, D. Projections of households and families for Canada, provinces and territories, 1989-2011. [Projections des menages et des familles pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires, 1989-2011.] Pub. Order No. 91-522. ISBN 0-660-54224-2. Mar 1990. xii, 75 pp. Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
These are official population projections for Canada. "They include three alternative series, encompassing a high, a medium and a low-growth scenario, along with such breakdowns as family and non-family households, lone-parent families, as well as the sex and age distribution of household maintainers. For the first time, projections of households and families by size are included."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Ottawa K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30077 Lindgren, Jarl. End of Finnish population growth. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 29, 1991. 99-113 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The author deals with population trends in Finland during the coming decades. He states that...population growth will come to an end at the turn of the century. The most typical features of the coming population decrease are examined. These include the changing of the age distribution towards a growing proportion of older adults in working life and of the aged, resulting in 25 percent of the population being older than 65 in 2030....[Changes in] the sex ratio...and the proportion of widows and widowers...are dealt with. Finally, the impact of the projected changes on the labor force is focused on, and the means for compensating for the diminishing supply of labor force are discussed."
Correspondence: J. Lindgren, Population Research Institute, Kalevankatu 16, SF-00100 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30078 Lutz, Wolfgang. A demographic forecasting model with reference to population groups that intermarry, using the example of the Evangelical Church in Austria. [Ein demographisches Prognosmodell mit Berucksichtigung von Bevolkerungsgruppen, die sich durch Heirat mischen, am Beispiel der evangelischen Kirche in Osterreich.] Osterreichische Zeitschrift fur Statistik und Informatik, Vol. 20, No. 1-2, 1990. 41-52 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"This research note develops a multi-state population projection model in which inter-marriage between the states and the following uncertainty about the state of the children plays a major role. Since only 5% of the Austrian population belong to the Evangelical Church, but more than 80% of their members marry partners not belonging to the church, the question of the percentage of children from mixed marriages that become church members turns out to be vital for the future size and age composition of the church." Five different scenarios to the year 2030 are examined.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30079 Pasquini, Lucia. On the borderline of the national demographic scene: the case of Bologna. [Una situazione limite nel panorama demografico nazionale: il caso di Bologna.] Statistica, Vol. 50, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1990. 347-62 pp. Bologna, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
The author describes population decline in Bologna, Italy. "Since the first half of the seventies the population of Bologna has undergone a continuous decrease caused by the natural and migratory balance deficit. This has deeply changed the age composition of the population: a drastic decrease in the number of [those aged less than] fourteen years and an increase in the number of [those] older. Assuming that, in the [next] ten years, [fertility] and mortality keep constant and the migratory balance becomes negative, a further reduction of the resident population of Bologna may be foreseen together with [more changes] in the demographic pattern." The consequences will include a large increase in the demand for health services, as well as increased employment opportunities.
Correspondence: L. Pasquini, Paolo Fortunati, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Bologna, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30080 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Centro de Estudos Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal); Portugal. Comissao de Coordenacao da Regiao do Alentejo (Lisbon, Portugal). Population projections, 1980-2000. [Projeccoes demograficas, 1980-2000.] 1988. 142 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE], Centro de Estudos Demograficos: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Population projections for Portugal are presented for the period 1980-2000 by age and sex. Various alternative estimates are made using different assumptions concerning migration.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Centro de Estudos Demograficos, Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida 5, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30081 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Projections of the resident population: Portugal, 1990-2020. [Projeccoes da populacao residente: Portugal, 1990-2020.] Jan 1991. 77 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Population projections are presented for Portugal up to the year 2020. The data on which they are based are those published before the results of the 1990 census were available. Three alternative scenarios concerning fertility are considered, as well as four scenarios concerning migration, resulting in 12 alternative projections.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos, Rua Soeiro Pereira Gomes, Edificio America, lote A/B, sala 10, 1600 Lisbon, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30082 Povlosky, Ronald M.; Green, James; Hay, Lee; Steahr, Thomas; Tirinzonie, John; Strictland, Rae; Saxe, Jeff. The shape of things to come: demographic forces reshaping America's future. LC 89-175070. Nov 1988. ix, 190 pp. Ron Povlosky: East Hartford, Connecticut. In Eng.
The author examines probable economic and demographic changes in the United States to the year 2000, stressing the effects of such changes on the size, composition, age, and other characteristics of the work force. He points to a decline in the growth rates of both the population and the work force; notes the changes in the proportion of jobs held by women, minorities, and immigrants; and considers how the aging of the labor force will affect employers. He then addresses the impact of these changes on society, the economy, the job market, and education.
Correspondence: Ron Povlosky, 48 Stanley Street, East Hartford, CT 06108. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30083 Rele, Jay R.; Bauer, John; Xenos, Peter. Analysis of population trends and projections in Asia, 1980-2010. May 1990. East-West Center, Population Institute: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
This report on population projections in Asia is in two parts. The first part consists of an executive summary and the second part is comprised of three background papers concerning trends in urbanization, the labor force, and the youth population.
Correspondence: East-West Center, Population Institute, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

57:30084 Rogers, Andrei; Woodward, Jennifer A. Assessing state population projections with transparent multiregional demographic models. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1991. 1-26 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Population projection models that are conceptually simple enough to be called transparent may be used to check the validity of projections generated by 'black box' models whose behavior may be somewhat shrouded in mystery. This paper adopts a multiregional demographic model to illustrate how such a validation procedure might be carried out on state population projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1988."
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado, Department of Geography, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30085 Steenkamp, H. A. Demographic segmentation of the population of the RSA and TBVC countries, 1970-2000. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 160, ISBN 0-947459-03-0. LC 90-100437. 1989. ix, 152 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
"This report examines changes in selected parameters of the population of the RSA [Republic of South Africa] and TBVC countries [Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, and Ciskei] over a thirty-year period from 1970 to 2000. Historical demographic data from three population censuses are used in the comparisons of the first fifteen years (1970 to 1985) and combined with...[projections] of demographic movements of the total South African population...to arrive at forecasts for the next fifteen years (1986 to 2000)." Data are included on age and sex distribution and projection, educational levels, and marital status by ethnic groups. The author concludes "that the white population is aging and is increasing at a very slow rate. The coloured and Asian populations are also declining but at a slower rate than the whites. Projections of the black population do not suggest any real deceleration in the present rapid rate of growth. Coupled with soaring black education levels, this will have a profound effect on the future development of the RSA, especially in the spheres of job creation, employment and politics."
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30086 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]. Demographic Analysis and Vital Statistics Division (London, England). World population: trends and projection. Population Trends, No. 63, Spring 1991. 36-9 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"World population is projected to increase from just over 5 billion in 1986 to 8.5 billion in 2025--although this latter total could, quite plausibly, range from 7 billion to over 9 billion. This article...looks at differences between major geographical subdivisions of the world in terms of overall growth, fertility, mortality, and age structures."
For the United Nations publication on which this article is based, see 55:30086.
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Demographic Analysis and Vital Statistics Division, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30087 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: percentage urban, 1990. [America Latina: porcentajes urbanos, 1990.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 24, No. 47, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.97. Jan 1991. 153 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for rural and urban areas for Latin America and its 20 constituent countries by sex and five-year age groups for five-year intervals from 1970 to 2000.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

57:30088 Fassmann, Heinz; Kytir, Josef; Munz, Rainer. World population today and tomorrow. [Weltbevolkerung heute und morgen.] Demographische Informationen 1990/91, [1991]. 5-16, 153 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"In 1989/90 the world's population was approximately 5.2 billions. According to U.N.-projections (medium variant) every 10 to 11 years this figure will grow by one billion, corresponding to an increase of 100 [million] people per year....This article discusses the causes for the population growth and the impact on the settlement system, the food-situation, the ecological system, and the development process in the Third World."
Correspondence: H. Fassmann, Instituts fur Demographie, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2b, 1033 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30089 Glyn-Jones, Anne. The repopulation of the countryside in Devon and Cornwall. Local Population Studies, No. 46, Spring 1991. 20-31 pp. Matlock, England. In Eng.
The author traces the population decline in the counties of Cornwall and Devon, England, from 1841 to 1961 and the subsequent increases in population up to 1981. She first examines the causes of the decline and then evaluates various hypotheses to explain the turnaround, including retirement migration, improvements in rural infrastructure, and tourism. "It appears, then, that the century-long history of rural depopulation or stagnation has substantially ended, although we shall have to wait for the findings of the 1991 census to clarify this."
Correspondence: A. Glyn-Jones, University of Exeter, Western European Studies Centre, Exeter, Devon EX4 6DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30090 Hablicsek, Laszlo. Demographic transition in Finland and in Hungary: a comparative study. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 29, 1991. 36-60 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to compare the demographic transition in Finland and Hungary during the period 1881-1986. The article deals with the transition of mortality and fertility, changes in reproduction, population growth and age structure. The analysis centers on the classical two-factor model: the development of fertility and mortality, changes in the size and in the age structure of the population by calendar periods and by birth cohorts. The basis of the study [is] population figures by sex and by five-year age groups....As a supplement to the study...six population scenarios have been prepared by the cohort component method, by five-year age groups and by five-year steps from 1991 to 2041."
Correspondence: L. Hablicsek, Central Statistical Office, Demographic Research Institute, Keleti Karoly U.5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30091 Martin Ruiz, Juan F. Regional imbalances in the population growth of the Canary Islands. [Los desequilibrios territoriales en el crecimiento demografico de la poblacion de Canarias.] Estudios Geograficos, Vol. 50, No. 195, Apr-Jun 1989. 215-33 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The author discusses changes in the population size and growth of the Canary Islands from 1950 to 1986. Due to a high birth rate, a decrease in mortality, and increasing migration to the area, the population of the Canary Islands has doubled during this period. The spatial distribution of the population and the factors influencing it are considered.
Correspondence: J. F. Martin Ruiz, Universidad de la Laguna, Departamento de Geografia, La Laguna, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:30092 Miettinen, Anneli. Population data on Finland, 1900-1990. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 29, 1991. 142-51 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Tabular data are presented for Finland, including age structure, population size, fertility rate, live births, maternal age, marriage, abortion, divorce, consensual union, family size, and labor force participation. The data are for the period 1900-1990.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30093 Muller, Herta. The population explosion in Algeria: the causes, the effects, and the solutions. [Bevolkerungsexplosion in Algerien: Ursachen, Folgen, Losungswege.] Asien, Afrika, Lateinamerika, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1990. 654-63 pp. Berlin, German Democratic Republic. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"For decades Algeria has had one of the highest population growth rates in the world, arising directly from a steady gap between deathrates and birthrates. The reasons are of a complex social, economic and cultural kind, such as high infant mortality, traditionally early marriage, family models largely determined by religion, the common practice of child labour and other factors. As a consequence of the mismatch between economic and demographic growth the society is confronted by growing mass unemployment, underemployment, food supply problems, housing shortages and ecological crises. The critical economic situation in the eighties reduced the prospects for constraining the population explosion by quickly conquering socioeconomic underdevelopment. Nowadays Algeria is deliberately following a programme for family planning, which is also supported to a certain extent by the Islamic clergy."
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:30094 Nanjo, Zenji; Kobayashi, Kazumasa. Measuring the demographic discontinuity. NUPRI Research Paper Series, No. 57, Mar 1991. vi, 25 pp. Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"The concept of 'demographic discontinuity' and a technique concerning how to measure it were first introduced by Keyfitz (1987...). In the present paper we developed his method for somewhat more detailed measuring of the bend in the curve of age distribution and tested our techniques by applying them to the population data for the world total and several Asian countries....We used the world population estimates and projections as assessed in 1984 by the United Nations...[for China, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand] as our base material. Using the age-time distribution of the world total population from 1950 to 1980, we calculated not only the first but also the second differences. Both were calculated with respect to time as well as with respect to age....[The focus was] on the bend occurring in cohort-to-cohort growth of population."
Correspondence: Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR). Source: For the paper by Nathan Keyfitz referred to, see 55:30107.

57:30095 Ritamies, Marketta. Population development in Finland in the 1980s. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 29, 1991. 114-26 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"This article describes population development in Finland in the 1980s....The emphasis in this article is on the development of fertility, mortality and migration....[The author finds that] the 1980s signified a period of stable development. The downward trend in fertility and mortality ceased and migration stabilized. The continuing low level of fertility and mortality was reflected in the aging of the population structure. The aging of Finland's markedly large working-age population will strongly increase the proportion of the elderly in the future."
Correspondence: M. Ritamies, Population Research Institute, Kalevankatu 16, SF-00100 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30096 Sari, Djilali. The necessity of controlling population growth in Algeria. [L'indispensable maitrise de la croissance demographique en Algerie.] Maghreb-Machrek, No. 129, 1990. 23-46 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The case is made for controlling Algeria's rapid rate of population growth. The author notes that at the present rate of growth the population is doubling every 20 years. The decline in the labor market and increases in unemployment and underemployment are also examined. The need for strong population policies and programs is stressed.
Correspondence: D. Sari, Universite d'Alger, 2 rue Didouche Mourad, Algiers, Algeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

57:30097 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Population trends and congressional apportionment. 1990 Census Profile, No. 1, Mar 1991. 4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This is the first in a series of profiles on results of the 1990 Census of Population and Housing." This profile focuses on population growth in the United States from 1980 to 1990 and changes in state congressional apportionment due to gains or losses in population size. Current population distribution by geographical region and changes in population size and rank for each state are presented for 1900, 1950, 1980, and 1990.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30098 Wu, Cangping. Population, environment and sustainable development. Population Research, Vol. 7, No. 4, Dec 1990. 1-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
Trends in world population growth are examined using U.N. data and estimates for the period 1750-1990 for both developed and developing countries. The author then focuses on population growth in China, the impact of population size on the environment, and the effect of family planning programs on fertility.
Correspondence: C. Wu, People's University of China, Institute of Population Research, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:30099 Wu, Jianhua. Population growth in the Jiangnan area in the Qing dynasty: an analysis. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1989. 235-49 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"It is the purpose of the present paper to conduct, by using genealogical data, a preliminary study on population growth in Jiangnan [China], an area which had the greatest population density according to official Qing census data." Data are for the period 1619-1870.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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