57:20738 Biaye,
Mady. Being in a state, the succession of states, and the
length of stay in each state in event history analysis: a review of
where we stand in the analysis of mortality. [La presence des
etats, leur ordre de succession et la duree de sejour dans chacun d'eux
dans l'analyse des histoires de vie: un essai de prise en compte dans
l'analyse de la mortalite.] Institut de Demographie Working Paper, No.
154, ISBN 2-87209-131-9. 1991. 27 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain,
Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
This
paper is an attempt to adapt the concepts of the order of succession of
states and duration of stay in each state to event history analysis by
a process of adapting some existing analytic methods. The author notes
that not only is the value of the new models dependent on the
correctness of the hypotheses on which they are based, but the results
obtained from their application depend on the quality of the data
available.
Correspondence: Universite Catholique de
Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1, Boite 17, 1348
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:20739 Boozer,
Michael A.; Guinnane, Timothy W. The consistency of
reported marital status and information drawn from own-child checks in
the 1910 census of the United States. OPR Working Paper Series,
No. 91-4, Dec 1990. 9, [15] pp. Princeton University, Office of
Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"The 1990
Federal Census of the United States did not ask married individuals
whether they had previously been married. Several researchers have
used 'own-child checks' to substitute for direct information on
remarriage in selecting couples for marital fertility analysis from the
Public Use Sample of the U.S. Federal Census of 1900. This note
compares the results of such checks to direct information on remarriage
in the Public Use Sample of the U.S. Census of 1910. The 1910 census
did ask married persons whether they had been married previously.
Comparison of the direct and indirect information on remarriage shows
that the checks detect fewer than two-thirds of wives who report they
are remarried. On the other hand, parity distributions for women who
say they are remarried but are not identified as such by the own-child
checks are very similar to those for the population of remarried women
as a whole. The own-child checks are a poor method for the study of
remarriage per se, but the checks perform remarkably well as part of
fertility analysis of the 1900 Public Use
Sample."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of
Population Research, Working Paper Series, 21 Prospect Avenue,
Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:20740 Brant, L.
J. Methodological issues in the epidemiology of risk
assessment and mortality. Collegium Antropologicum, Vol. 14, No.
1, Jun 1990. 107-22 pp. Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In Eng. with sum. in Scr.
"Risk factor analyses are widely used in epidemiological studies of
morbidity and mortality. This paper discusses different models that
are used for such studies and addresses numerous issues that arise in
the subsequent analyses. Methodological issues are illustrated by
examining the relationship between relative body weight and mortality
in a cohort of [U.S.] males participating in a longitudinal study of
normal aging."
Correspondence: L. J. Brant, National
Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging, Gerontology Research
Center, 4940 Eastern Avenue, Baltimore, MD 21224. Location:
Stanford University Libraries, Stanford, CA.
57:20741 Denton,
Frank T.; Feaver, Christine H.; Spencer, Byron G. The MEDS
projection and simulation system. QSEP Research Report, No. 263,
Jun 1990. 27 pp. McMaster University, Faculty of Social Sciences,
Program for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population: Hamilton,
Canada. In Eng.
"MEDS is an acronym for Models of the
Economic-Demographic System, a system that consists of a series of
interrelated models designed for use in projecting or simulating the
development of the Canadian population and economy over the longer
term. MEDS now includes four models, and each of these is discussed
briefly. The models are designed for easy use on standard DOS-based
microcomputers. Recent changes incorporated in them are discussed, and
plans for further development of MEDS are noted."
For earlier
reports on the MEDS models, including a machine-readable data file, see
56:20768 and 30074; for a related study by the same authors, see
elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: McMaster
University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Program for Quantitative
Studies in Economics and Population, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20742 Denton,
Frank T.; Feaver, Christine H.; Spencer, Byron G. The MEDS
system of models: an instrument for economic-demographic simulation
and projection. QSEP Research Report, No. 269, Oct 1990. 33 pp.
McMaster University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Program for
Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population: Hamilton, Canada. In
Eng.
"MEDS (Models of the Economic-Demographic System) is a series
of interrelated user-friendly computer models designed for use in
projecting or simulating the development of Canadian population and
economy over the longer term. There are currently four MEDS models,
each designed for easy use on standard DOS-based microcomputers. The
models are discussed briefly, and some recent extensions relating to
life cycle behaviour, human capital calculations, and education and
training expenditures are illustrated."
For earlier reports on the
MEDS models, including a machine-readable data file, see 56:20768 and
30074; for a related study by the same authors, see elsewhere in this
issue.
Correspondence: McMaster University, Faculty of
Social Sciences, Program for Quantitative Studies in Economics and
Population, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20743 Feeney,
Griffith. Untilting age distributions: a transformation
for graphical analysis. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol.
4, No. 3, Fall 1990. 13-20 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"This
article presents a new approach to the plotting of age distribution
data. 'Untilting' is a way of transforming data that vary
systematically from very high to very low values so as to show local
variation more clearly. The article derives an untilting
transformation from the formal structure of age distributions. The
transformation turns out to be closely related to two familiar
demographic techniques, reverse-survival estimation of births and birth
rates, and comparison of observed with stable age distributions. The
ideas are illustrated by application to age distributions from the 1979
and 1989 censuses of Vietnam."
Correspondence: G. Feeney,
East-West Center, East-West Population Institute, 1777 East-West Road,
Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:20744 Ferguson,
Brian S. Optimal population control with uncertain
output. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1990.
291-302 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In
Eng.
"This note has shown how the techniques of stochastic control
theory can be used to analyze the impact of uncertainty about
non-labour inputs on optimal population control expenditure. While we
have chosen very simple structure, it has allowed us to isolate the
channels through which uncertainty affects the optimal plan, in this
case causing expected expenditure on control to rise more slowly or
fall more rapidly than its deterministic counterpart. Given the
long-term implications of changes in population growth at any instant,
and the stochastic nature of the environment in which control decisions
are made, it is likely that useful insights could be obtained by
extending the stochastic control approach to more complicated
population control structures."
Correspondence: B. S.
Ferguson, University of Guelph, Department of Economics, Guelph,
Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:20745 Gray,
Alan. Analysis of components of demographic change.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1991. 21-38 pp.
Reading, England. In Eng.
"There exist a number of approaches to
analysis of the components of difference between demographic rates
using standardization techniques. A generalization of some of these
methods, for an arbitrary number of components and an arbitrary
analytical function of them, is shown to be the theoretically best
choice when the analytical function is linear in each of the components
and when linear change is assumed for each of the components. Also, a
very close approximation to an exact decomposition for the most general
case can be obtained when dealing with change over time and time series
data are available."
Correspondence: A. Gray, Australian
National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population
Health, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20746 Greenhalgh,
David. An epidemic model with a density-dependent death
rate. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology,
Vol. 7, No. 1, 1990. 1-26 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper
deals with a mathematical model for a disease where the death rate
depends on the number of people in the population. This sort of model
would be suitable for diseases in developing countries....We also
assume that the population under consideration is regulated by the
disease so that there is a mortality induced by the disease. We use a
compartmental model and perform an equilibrium and stability analysis
to find that there is a threshold condition. If the threshold is
exceeded, then there is a unique equilibrium with disease present which
is locally stable to small perturbations."
Correspondence:
D. Greenhalgh, University of Strathclyde, Department of Mathematics,
Livingstone Tower, 26 Richmond Street, Glasgow G1 1XH, Scotland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20747 Khalifa,
Mona. The loglinear model as a tool for the analysis of
demographic data. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review,
Vol. 24, No. 1, Jun 1990. 17-41 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
The author
discusses the use of loglinear models in demographic analysis,
particularly with regard to the analysis of contingency tables. Their
use is illustrated using data from the 1980 World Fertility Survey for
Sudan to analyze the determinants of fifth-birth intervals. The
results show "the ability of the technique to improve our understanding
of the mechanism of fertility differentials using individual--instead
of aggregate--data. It has shown how each variable affects the process
when all other variables are held
constant."
Correspondence: M. Khalifa, Cairo University,
Department of Statistics, POB 1055, Khartoum, Sudan. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20748 Marshall,
Roger J. Mapping disease and mortality rates using
empirical Bayes estimators. Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society, Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 40, No. 2, 1991. 283-94
pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Methods for estimating regional
mortality and disease rates, with a view to mapping disease, are
discussed. A new empirical Bayes estimator, with parameters simply
estimated by moments, is proposed and compared with iterative
alternatives suggested by Clayton and Kaldor." The author develops a
local shrinkage estimator in which a crude disease rate is shrunk
toward a local, neighborhood rate. The estimators are compared using
simulations and an empirical example based on infant mortality data for
Auckland, New Zealand.
Correspondence: R. J. Marshall,
University of Auckland, School of Medicine, Department of Community
Health, Private Bag, Auckland, New Zealand. Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
57:20749 McCall,
Brian P. Testing the proportional hazards assumption in
the presence of unmeasured heterogeneity: an application to the
unemployment durations of displaced workers. Center for Population
Analysis and Policy Research Report, No. 91-03-2, Mar 1991. 38 pp.
University of Minnesota, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center
for Population Analysis and Policy: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This paper develops tests of the proportional hazards assumption
when duration data is grouped and when some heterogeneity, which
influences the duration of an event, is unmeasured....These tests are
applied in studying the determinants of unemployment durations among
displaced workers. Unemployment duration data is derived from the 1986
and 1988 [U.S.] Current Population Survey's Displaced Worker
Supplement. The proportional hazards assumption is rejected for the
full sample but cannot be rejected for a subsample of individuals who
are eligible for unemployment insurance
benefits."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota,
Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, Center for Population Analysis
and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Room 230, Minneapolis, MN 55455.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20750 Mitra,
S. About Holland's "On the adequacy of Mitra's model of
the life table: a technical note" Demography India, Vol. 17, No.
2, Jul-Dec 1988. 329-30 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a
response to a critique by Bart Holland of the author's 1983 article on
modeling life table functions.
For the article by Holland, published
in 1987, see 54:20209.
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory
University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:20751 Poltavtsev,
Yu. G. A problem of modeling population growth.
[Problema modelirovaniya vosproizvodstva naseleniya.] Demograficheskie
Issledovaniya, Vol. 14, 1990. 34-43 pp. Kiev, USSR. In Rus. with sum.
in Eng; Ukr.
"An attempt is made to simulate [population]
reproduction which is considered as a [combination] of labour and
demographic activity."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:20752 Potter,
Joseph E. Demographic approaches to survival and
reproduction: parallels between the mortality transition and the
fertility transition. Texas Population Research Center Paper, No.
12.07, 1990-1991. 24 pp. University of Texas, Texas Population Research
Center: Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"In this essay, after offering a
brief and rough caricature of recent social science research on
fertility, I will look at what appear to be the reasons why social
scientists have considered mortality and fertility to be quite
different phenomena, subject to quite different sorts of inquiries. The
discussion will proceed from there to take up the numerous similarities
between the two fields of research. The thrust of the argument is
that, at least among demographers, the 'social' and 'behavioral' nature
of health and mortality has been severely underestimated heretofore,
that there is considerable overlap and complementarity between
fertility research and mortality research, and that most of the
customary reasons for thinking that mortality research is inherently
less social and behavioral than fertility research are not 'good
reasons'." Attention is given to the methodological implications of
this approach. The geographical focus is on developing
countries.
Correspondence: University of Texas, Texas
Population Research Center, Main 1800, Austin, TX 78712.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20753 Rees,
Philip. Old model faces new challenges: a review of the
state of the art in multistate population modelling. School of
Geography Working Paper, No. 531, Sep 1989. iii, 49 pp. University of
Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"The paper
reviews the state-of-the-art in multistate population modelling. After
a thumbnail sketch of the projection version of the model, a series of
challenges to the model structure and utility are considered....The
multistate model's cousin, the dynamic microsimulation model, is then
analyzed as a response to the challenge to enrich model outputs.
Finally, the paper discusses two new challenges to...multistate
modellers: to deal with the AIDS pandemic, and to respond to the
[general information system] challenge."
Correspondence:
University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20754 Sugarev,
Zdravko. Some generalizations of the net coefficient of
population reproduction. [Nyakoi obobsteniya na neto-koefitsienta
za vazproizvodstvoto na naselenieto.] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1989.
40-51 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Estimation techniques for predicting population growth and
fertility are discussed, and a mathematical model is
developed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:20755 Wrigley,
Neil. Unobserved heterogeneity and the analysis of
longitudinal spatial choice data. European Journal of
Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 6, No. 4, Dec 1990.
327-58 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This
paper tackles the problem of handling uncontrolled heterogeneity due to
unobserved influences on the decision process of spatial choice. It
concentrates upon a discrete-time/'random-effects' approach to the
problem of unobserved heterogeneity and documents parametric and
non-parametric methods of specifying and estimating models which can
cope with unobserved heterogeneity." The model is applied to data from
Wales.
Correspondence: N. Wrigley, University of Wales,
Department of Town Planning, P.O. Box 906, Colum Drive, Cardiff CF1
3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
