F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

57:20212 Arioka, Jiro. Fewer babies: a private matter? Japan Quarterly, Vol. 38, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1991. 50-6 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
The author describes the national debate that has occurred following the publication in 1990 of a white paper pointing out that Japan's fertility rate has been below replacement level since 1975, and fell as low as 1.57 in 1989. The reactions of political and economic leaders concerned about the socioeconomic consequences of this trend are contrasted with those of women's rights advocates who reject government interference into an area of individual decision making and who fear a setback for women from governmental emphasis on the need for women to have more children.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:20213 Audinarayana, N.; Thenmozhi, N. Modernisation and fertility in an urban community. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 35, No. 5, Sep 1989. 64-71 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author analyzes the impact of modernization and the resulting changes in value orientation on fertility levels in India. Data are from a survey of 325 women residing in Coimbatore city, Tamil Nadu. Findings reveal a direct connection between women's higher educational levels and reduced fertility.
Correspondence: N. Audinarayana, Bharathiar University, Department of Population Studies, Coimbatore 641 046, Tamil Nadu, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20214 Bernhardt, Eva. Having a first birth in Stockholm before the age of 30. [Avoir un premier enfant a Stockholm avant 30 ans.] Population, Vol. 45, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1990. 1,013-36 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The characteristics of first births in Sweden are analyzed using data for 7,392 women born in 1953 living in Stockholm at their tenth birthday who were followed until 1983. "The births of their first children were classified by mother's age and a number of socio-cultural variables. Biographical information was obtained and a proportionate hazards model with interaction terms was applied. Two types of factors were found to have a significant effect....[The first] was a negative association between the birth rate and the level of the woman's education, and social background, as measured by father's occupation, mother's level of education and mother's age at first delivery....[Second,] a relation was found between fertility and the results of a test on verbal fluency administered to the subjects when they were 13 years old."
Correspondence: E. Bernhardt, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20215 Berquo, Elza S. Concerning the decline in fertility and contraception in Sao Paulo (a preliminary analysis). [Sobre o declinio da fecundidade e a anticoncepcao em Sao Paulo (analise preliminar).] Textos NEPO, No. 6, May 1986. 51 pp. Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Nucleo de Estudos de Populacao [NEPO]: Campinas, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
This preliminary analysis is primarily concerned with the current level of contraceptive practice and the decline in fertility that occurred in Brazil during the 1980s, using the example of the state of Sao Paulo. The level of fertility decline up to 1980 is first briefly reviewed. The analysis is then developed using preliminary data from surveys carried out in four municipalities in Sao Paulo in 1984. The widespread prevalence of female sterilization is attributed to the fact that local programs have encouraged this method of contraception.
Correspondence: Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Nucleo de Estudos de Populacao, Cidade Universitaria Zeferina Vaz, CP 1170, 13100 Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20216 Biswas, Suddhendu; Shrestha, Ganga. Correlation between successive conceptive delays. Demography India, Vol. 17, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1988. 204-15 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The authors evaluate a model that illustrates the bivariate distribution of two successive conception delays.
Correspondence: S. Biswas, University of Delhi, Faculty of Mathematics, Department of Mathematical Statistics, Delhi 110 007, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20217 Botev, Nikolai. Features of the transition to new reproductive behavior in Bulgaria (an attempt to explain the "Bulgarian anomaly"). [Osobenosti na prekhoda kam novo vazproizvodstveno povedenie v Balgariya (opit za obyasnenie na "balgarskata anomaliya").] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1989. 88-101 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author examines demographic trends in Bulgaria in the twentieth century. Emphasis is on factors affecting regional changes in fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20218 Calot, G. Fertility in Europe: past trends and future perspectives. [La fecondite en Europe: evolutions passees et perspectives d'avenir.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 3, Dec 1990. 56-82 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
The author outlines the main developments concerning European fertility over the course of the last two centuries. Particular attention is given to the possible causes of the most recent observed trends. These include the development of modern contraception and social change. The article concludes by considering the possible future course of fertility trends in Europe. Data are from published sources.
Correspondence: G. Calot, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20219 Centro Paraguayo de Estudios de Poblacion [CEPEP] (Asuncion, Paraguay); Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems. Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Columbia, Maryland). National Demographic and Health Survey, 1990. [Encuesta Nacional de Demografia y Salud, 1990.] Feb 1991. xxii, 172 pp. Asuncion, Paraguay. In Spa.
This is a summary report of the 1990 National Demographic and Health Survey of Paraguay. Information is provided on demographic and socioeconomic features of the country; survey methodology; general population characteristics according to household and individual questionnaires; fertility, including levels, trends, and differentials, maternal age, birth intervals, and adolescent fertility; nuptiality and exposure to risk of pregnancy; family planning, including knowledge of methods, source of contraceptives, and method use and discontinuation; fertility preferences, including desired family size and demand for family planning services; infant and child mortality; maternal and infant health; and lactation and nutrition. Appendixes contain information on survey design, implementation, and data quality.
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20220 Charbit, Yves; Ndiaye, Khardiata; Ndiaye, Salif; Sadio, Abdoulaye; Sarr, Ibrahima. Nuptiality and fertility in Senegal. [Nuptialite et fecondite au Senegal.] Annales de l'IFORD, Vol. 13, No. 2, Dec 1989. 37-74 pp. Yaounde, Cameroon. In Fre.
The relationship between fertility and nuptiality in Senegal is analyzed using data from the fertility survey carried out in 1978 as part of the World Fertility Survey. The authors show that high fertility is associated with early and almost universal marriage, frequent remarriage, and the social status of children. In the absence of widespread contraception, the main factors limiting fertility are breast-feeding, infertility, and, to some extent, polygamy.
Correspondence: Y. Charbit, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20221 Chimere-Dan, Orieji. Proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. Social Biology, Vol. 37, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1990. 162-71 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Data from the 1981-82 Nigeria Fertility Survey (NFS) are used to identify the key proximate determinants of fertility in Nigeria. The patterns of their individual and collective effects are analyzed in a search for possible sources of fertility change. Exposure to the risk of childbearing through first marriage is found to be the most important proximate determinant of Nigerian fertility. Subsequent to marriage, fertility is determined mainly by breastfeeding and postpartum sexual abstinence. Where fertility shows significant socioeconomic variations, there are equally identifiable patterns of the impact of the proximate determinants which explain these differentials to a large extent. On a national scale, the observed patterns of the impact of the measured proximate determinants do not appear to suggest that Nigerian fertility is soon to experience a large decline."
Correspondence: O. Chimere-Dan, London School of Economics, Department of Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20222 Chojnacka, Helena; Adegbola, Olukunle. Family limitation and fertility increase. Genus, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1990. 163-93 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The focus here is on the gravidity-fertility link and its implications for mortality, especially child mortality. Further, we attempt to verify underlying behavioral and biological factors that account for continuing high or increasing natural fertility among women exposed to socioeconomic change at an early stage of development, in populations with early and universal marital patterns. Second, an explanation for the delayed commencement of sustained fertility decline under early and universal marriage is offered. We argue that under early marital patterns the onset of demographic change takes place in nuptiality, while fertility may actually increase due to improving living conditions (nutrition, hygiene, education). We further contend that these changes in nuptiality are the most potent factor affecting the rate of population growth downward." The research is based primarily on data from Nigeria.
Correspondence: H. Chojnacka, Manhattanville College, Purchase, NY 10577. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20223 Coale, Ansley J.; Wang, Feng; Riley, Nancy E.; Lin, Fu De. Recent trends in fertility and nuptiality in China. Science, Vol. 251, No. 4992, Jan 25, 1991. 389-93 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Recent trends in fertility and nuptiality in China are analyzed using data from two large-scale fertility surveys carried out in 1982 and 1988. The extraordinary 60 percent decline in fertility between 1970 and 1980 is first described. The focus then switches to the effect changes in the pattern of entry into marriage have had on childbearing since 1980. "There was a sharp increase in overall fertility (the total fertility rate) from 1980 to 1982; after falling to slightly below the 1980 level in 1985, the rate rose in 1985 and 1986 to well above that of 1980. A major factor in this arrested and partially reversed decline was a boom in marriage that followed a relaxation in 1980 of locally administered restrictions on marriage before the officially designated desirable age. In fact, the total fertility rate of married women (summed over duration of marriage rather than age) averaged much lower in the mid-1980s than in 1980."
Correspondence: A. J. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SQ).

57:20224 Cross, Anne R.; Obungu, Walter; Kizito, Paul. Evidence of a transition of lower fertility in Kenya. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 17, No. 1, Mar 1991. 4-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Data from the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey provide evidence that the country's population growth rate, historically among the highest in the world, has begun to slow. The total fertility rate in 1989 was 6.7 live births per woman, down from 8.1 in the mid-1970s; most of the decline appears to have taken place in the past few years. Contraceptive prevalence has increased sharply, with 27 percent of married women using a method, up from 14 percent in 1984 and six percent in 1977-1978. Periodic abstinence remains the most widely used method (7.5 percent), followed by the pill (5.2 percent) and female sterilization (4.7 percent). The survey results suggest that the fertility decline is likely to continue."
Correspondence: A. R. Cross, Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys, Anglophone Africa and Asia, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20225 Deshpande, R. V. Trends and correlates of fertility in the districts of Karnataka, 1951-81. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 35, No. 6, Dec 1989. 32-44 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"The present paper attempts to study the trends in fertility in the districts of Karnataka [India] at quinquennial time intervals for the three decades--1951-56 to 1976-81, and to identify the correlates of fertility in the districts of Karnataka during 1976-81." Selected indicators include female marriage age, contraceptive use, female literacy, income, and Muslim proportion of the population. Data are from the censuses of 1961, 1971, and 1981.
Correspondence: R. V. Deshpande, JSS Institute of Economic Research, Population Research Centre, Vidyagiri, Dharwad 580 004, Karnataka, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20226 Duraisamy, P.; Malathy, R. Impact of public programs on fertility and gender specific investment in human capital of children in rural India: cross sectional and time series analyses. Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper, No. 596, Feb 1990. 30 pp. Yale University, Economic Growth Center: New Haven, Connecticut. In Eng.
"This paper examines the impact of the public programs, namely family planning, health and education, on household child investment decisions within a household production framework using district level aggregate time series of cross section data for two periods, 1971 and 1981 for rural India. The cross sectional estimates show that the own program effects of health reduce family size in both years and education increases the investment in the sex-specific schooling of children only in 1971. Family planning clinics exert a significant negative effect on fertility only in 1971. The cross program effects show that the presence of a secondary school in a village reduces the demand for number of children in both years whereas the primary health centers and hospitals increase the schooling of both boys and girls only in the most recent period. An important finding is that an increase in the proportion of females with matriculation and above would reduce the family size and increase schooling of female children, and thus reduce the inequality in male and female enrollments."
Correspondence: Yale University, Economic Growth Center, Box 1987, Yale Station, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20227 Entorf, Horst; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Interrelationships between mortality and fertility in Germany: rural and urban Prussia and modern Germany. Genus, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1990. 133-46 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The paper investigates the interrelationship between fertility and infant mortality and its economic determinants by time-series methods for historical and modern Germany. It is studied whether the causal effects of infant mortality on fertility have to be considered as hoarding or replacement, and whether the costs of nutrition have an influence on family decision making about demographic variables. Results show that there are indications for replacement motives, and that economic factors matter."
Correspondence: H. Entorf, University of Mannheim, Schloss, Postfach 103462, 6800 Mannheim 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20228 Faria, Vilmar E.; Potter, Joseph E. Development, government policy, and fertility regulation in Brazil. Texas Population Research Center Paper, No. 12.02, 1990-1991. 19, [11] pp. University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center: Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"This paper offers a new perspective on the fertility decline in Brazil, and argues that a number of government policies have had substantial unintended and unanticipated effects on the rapid changes in reproductive behavior that have taken place since 1960. The four policy areas we focus on are consumer credit, telecommunications, social security, and health care....We address the question of how Brazilian development yielded values and norms consistent with controlled fertility. We claim to have identified significant institutional changes that had a direct and immediate bearing on the way people thought about sex and reproduction, and that facilitated the massive adoption of modern contraception. Our approach to the role of the state differs from that of most Brazilians in that we focus on the unintended effects of real policies rather than the intended effects of a non-policy....[Data are from] the 1980 Northeastern Brazil Survey of Maternal Child Health/Family Planning...."
This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 400).
Correspondence: University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center, Main 1800, Austin, TX 78712. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20229 Florez, Carmen E.; Echeverri, Rafael; Bonilla, Elssy. The demographic transition in Colombia: effects of family formation. [La transicion demografica en Colombia: efectos en la formacion de la familia.] ISBN 958-9057-14-4. 1990. 242 pp. United Nations University: Tokyo, Japan; Universidad de Los Andes, Ediciones Uniandes: Bogota, Colombia. In Spa.
The authors analyze the fertility decline in Colombia at the household level based on a comparison of cohorts of women who represent behavior before and after the demographic transition. The focus is on changes in the different stages of family formation, as well as the effect of women's status on these stages. The first two chapters provide an overview of the demographic transition and socioeconomic change in Colombia and describe the survey design and methods of analysis. In Chapter 3, regional and socioeconomic characteristics are described. In Chapter 4, the authors use retrospective life histories to analyze trends in family formation as well as the socioeconomic determinants of those events, with a focus on women's productive and reproductive behavior over the life course. Chapter 5 provides a discussion of women's own perceptions of their life course, with a focus on sexual behavior, maternity, abortion, family planning, dependency, division of labor, and use of time. Data are from surveys conducted in 1984 and 1986 in Bogota and in the rural area of a central Andean region.
Correspondence: Universidad de Los Andes, Ediciones Uniandes, Apartado Aereo 4976, Bogota, Colombia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20230 Fukushima, Yasumasa; Hayashi, Kenji. A study on the effect of socio-economic factors on fertility: an analysis from 1950 through 1980. Japanese Journal of Health and Human Ecology, Vol. 55, No. 5, 1989. 208-16 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The effect of economic development on fertility in Japan for the period 1950-1980 is examined. A model was devised to test the impact of modernization, industrialization, and urbanization on fertility decline.
Correspondence: Y. Fukushima, Higashi-Matsuyama Health Centre, Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Location: Center for Research Libraries, Chicago, IL.

57:20231 Gupta, S. P. The implications of socio-economic model of fertility. Journal of Sociological Studies, No. 9, Jan 1990. 144-50 pp. Jodhpur, India. In Eng.
The author reviews some theoretical studies concerning the factors affecting fertility in developing countries. Separate consideration is given to economic and sociological models of fertility. The author concludes that in order to understand the determinants of fertility, both the socioeconomic and cultural dimensions need to be considered.
Correspondence: S. P. Gupta, University of Jodhpur, Department of Sociology, 342 001 Rajasthan, India. Location: Center for Research Libraries, Chicago, IL.

57:20232 Heckman, James J.; Walker, James R. The third birth in Sweden. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1990. 235-75 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper considers the formulation, estimation and interpretation of microdynamic models of fertility. Our model explains parity choices, sterility, childlessness, interbirth intervals and initiation of pregnancy within a unified framework. We develop a general methodology for estimating the determinants of transition times to births of different orders. Our procedure incorporates time-varying explanatory variables and unobservables. We present conditions that justify conventional formulae relating hazards to survivor functions when time-varying variables enter hazards. We also consider the validity of widely-used piecemeal estimation strategies that focus on one birth at a time. We consider methods for selecting a best model among a class of non-nested models. Two criteria are set forth and used to evaluate the determinants of third births in Sweden."
Correspondence: J. J. Heckman, University of Chicago, Department of Economics, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20233 Hoem, Jan M. Social policy and recent fertility change in Sweden. Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, No. 4, Dec 1990. 735-48, 812-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This note describes the increase in Sweden's period total fertility rate (TFR) in recent years. The TFR has now reached the replacement level despite Swedish women's record-high labor force participation and their unusually late entry into motherhood. The demographic mechanism behind this development is an increase in the tempo of childbearing. Direct empirical evidence for a significant demographic response to specific public policies is rare in Western societies. In Sweden, however, a marked reduction in the length of time between first and second, and between second and third births appears to be largely a response to financial incentives to extend maternity leave."
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20234 Hull, Terence H.; Hatmadji, Sri H. Regional fertility differentials in Indonesia: causes and trends. Working Papers in Demography, No. 22, 1990. 34 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"Indonesia experienced a major fertility decline between the late 1960s and the mid 1980s. This paper uses an institutional framework to describe and analyse the causes for that decline. In particular, emphasis is placed on the changing nature of structures of governance and socialization which have transformed institutions of the economy and the family in ways generally conducive to fertility decline. The authors conclude that these institutional transformations are such as to guarantee a continuing decline in fertility levels for years to come." Some attention is also paid to regional differences in fertility.
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20235 Huq, M. Najmul; Cleland, John. Bangladesh Fertility Survey, 1989. Mar 1990. x, 118, 51; xii, 264 pp. National Institute of Population Research and Training [NIPORT]: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
This two-volume report presents results from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey of 1989. The survey objectives were "(i) to assess the current level and recent trends in fertility that have taken place in the last 10 years and to document the direct causes, namely marriage, contraception, and breastfeeding; (ii) to collect information on variations in fertility and childhood mortality by region, residence, socio-economic status and other characteristics." The survey covered 11,906 ever-married women under 50 years of age. Following introductory chapters on survey methodology, the first volume includes chapters on household characteristics, marriage, fertility preference, contraception, contraceptive use in relation to need, breast-feeding, fertility, and child health care and survival. The second volume contains detailed analytical tables.
Correspondence: National Institute of Population Research and Training, Azimpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20236 Jones, Gavin W. Consequences of rapid fertility decline for old age security in Asia. Working Papers in Demography, No. 20, 1990. 29 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
Fertility decline and its impact on old-age security are analyzed for several Asian countries, particularly Japan, China, and countries in the ASEAN group. The author finds that "there will be a movement towards Western family patterns and old age support systems, but that for two main reasons we can expect a higher level of family involvement in the support of the aged than in the West. The first reason is that some Asian countries are likely to reach an advanced level of ageing at lower levels of urbanization-industrialization than in the West, making it unlikely that government resources will be sufficient to provide comprehensive care for the aged; the second is that the cultural underpinnings of Asian familial systems can be expected to show a degree of durability in the face of socio-economic change."
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Division of Demography and Sociology, P.O. Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20237 Kesarwani, B. R. Fertility and differential fertility. ISBN 81-7169-001-7. LC 89-906365. 1989. xxix, 441 pp. Commonwealth Publishers: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
Fertility in India is analyzed using data from a sample fertility survey carried out in Allahabad in 1965 which included some 800 households. Chapters are included on marriage conditions, age at first birth, fertility, differential fertility, age at marriage and fertility, and fertility and mortality.
Correspondence: Commonwealth Publishers, 4378/4B, Ansari Road, Darya Ganj, New Delhi 110 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20238 Khalifa, Mona. Fitting a theoretical model to the waiting time to first conception, with an application to Sudan. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 23, Dec 1989. 26-57 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
The author proposes a model to analyze the impact of the length of the interval between two successive live births on the fecundability of Sudanese women. "It was shown that in spite of the high fertility rates of Sudan, the level of fecundability is very low."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20239 Lapan, Harvey E.; Enders, Walter. Endogenous fertility, Ricardian equivalence, and debt management policy. Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 41, No. 2, Mar 1990. 227-48 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The paper develops a model in which dynastic families optimally determine fertility. Government debt represents a tax on future generations and on childbearing; the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis does not hold. Debt is welfare reducing in that it distorts the fertility decision. An increase in government debt induces a decline in fertility and an increase in the steady state capital/labor ratio. If a government inherits an existing stock of debt, the first-best policy is to eliminate the debt immediately. In other situations the optimal debt management policy will not, in general, entail a total elimination of the debt."
Correspondence: H. E. Lapan, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:20240 Loh, Shirley; Ram, Bali. Delayed childbearing in Canada: trends and factors. Genus, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1990. 147-61 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"Using period and cohort birth order statistics, an overview of the phenomenon of delayed childbearing in Canada is presented. Data employed in the period analysis were mainly from the years 1944 to 1985, while women born between the years 1935 and 1960 were the subjects of the cohort analysis. An examination of selected indices, namely, age-specific first-birth fertility rates, median ages of women at first-order birth and cumulative first-order birth rates shows that there is an overall trend for women to postpone the initiation of childbearing until late twenties or early thirties....The results indicate that work experience, education, occupation and year of marriage are important variables influencing age at first birth and first-birth interval."
Correspondence: S. Loh, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20241 Lutz, Wolfgang; Pirozkov, Sergei; Scherbov, Sergei. Modelling Ukrainian fertility since 1925. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-90-25, Jun 1990. vii, 16 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This paper gives a full account of all empirical information on Ukrainian fertility trends since 1925. To fill the wide gaps of information between 1930 and 1960, a period for which only 4 data points are given, a model fertility schedule for cohorts is used to reconstruct the missing years. The result is a full series of annual age-specific fertility rates since 1925 with some extrapolations....With a TFR of 2.07, the Ukraine presently has the lowest fertility level of all Soviet Republics. Fertility has been rather stable at this level for the past 25 years and the fertility projections...do not indicate a change for the rest of this century."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20242 Lyatukh, Mikolai. General and structural changes in the social process of population reproduction in Poland up to the year 2000. [Obsti i strukturni izmeneniya v obstestveniya protses na vazproizvodstvo na naselenieto v Polsha do 2000 g.] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1989. 52-62 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author analyzes prospective fertility trends in Poland up to the year 2000. Consideration is given to social attitudes and family planning policies.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20243 Macfarlane, Alison; Botting, Beverley; Price, Frances. The study of triplet and higher order births. Population Trends, No. 62, Winter 1990. 26-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"High order multiple births remain uncommon and unexpected, but the numbers of these births doubled [in England and Wales] during the 1980s and more of the babies are surviving. As a result, a greater number of people, both parents and professionals, are faced with the extraordinary demands of caring for triplets, quadruplets, quintuplets, and sextuplets. This article summarises and discusses the main findings of a recent study."
Correspondence: B. Botting, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, St. Catherine's House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20244 Macunovich, Diane J. Some new perspectives on the issue of countercyclical U.S. fertility. 1989. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author examines the effects of unemployment on fertility in the United States for the period 1958-1984. She concludes that unemployment, especially female unemployment, has a strong negative effect on fertility at both macro and micro levels. The results are compared with those of Butz and Ward, who found evidence of countercyclical fertility.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Southern California.
Correspondence: University of Southern California, Micrographics Department, Doheny Library, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0182. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(1).

57:20245 Maglad, Nour E. Fertility in rural Sudan: the effect of landholding and child mortality. Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper, No. 604, Jul 1990. 13 pp. Yale University, Economic Growth Center: New Haven, Connecticut. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the response of fertility to child mortality and landholding of the agricultural household in rural Sudan. The micro-economic framework of fertility behavior is used as a basis for the analysis of a demand function for children....Two equations are estimated using the method of Two Stage Least Squares. In one equation the cross-sectional mortality rate is used as an instrumental variable for child deaths. In the other a regional health variable is used to identify the demand function. The results indicate that fertility responds positively to child mortality and that the replacement response to child deaths is less than unity which indicates that a given percentage decline in child mortality is expected to be partially offset by a reduction in fertility. Also fertility responds positively and inelastically to cultivated land. The effect of some other socio-economic variables on the demand for births is also discussed."
Correspondence: Yale University, Economic Growth Center, Box 1987, Yale Station, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20246 Martinelle, Sten. New fertility trends in Sweden. Bakgrundsmaterial fran Demografiska Funktionen, No. 4, 1990. 5 pp. Statistiska Centralbyran: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
This publication includes two short pieces on recent fertility trends in Sweden that were previously published in Swedish. The first piece notes that recent increases in fertility are due primarily to the fact that women are having children in rapid succession. In the second piece the author observes that the later a woman postpones childbearing, the greater the risk of her remaining childless.
Correspondence: Statistiska Centralbyran, Karlavagen 100, S-115 81 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20247 Meekers, Dominique. The effect of imputation procedures on first birth intervals: evidence from five African fertility surveys. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 2, May 1991. 249-60 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In most African societies there is little motivation to remember dates of demographic events with the level of precision required in demographic surveys. Consequently it is common that the large majority of survey respondents can provide only the calendar year of occurrence or their age at the time of the event. The World Fertility Survey Group decided to handle the problem of poor date reporting by using a computer program to impute the missing information. This article illustrates the effect of these imputation procedures on cross-national differentials in the proportion of premarital first births in Benin, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. The analysis demonstrates that the exceptionally low proportion of premarital first births in Ghana is an artifact of the imputation procedures."
Correspondence: D. Meekers, National Research Council, Committee on Population, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20248 Nieuwoudt, W. L.; Fairlamb, C. D. An economic analysis of human fertility in KwaZulu, southern Africa. South African Journal of Economics/Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Ekonomie, Vol. 58, No. 3, Sep 1990. 357-63 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
The authors analyze the economic factors affecting family size in KwaZulu, South Africa, using data from a 1988 family survey conducted in both rural and urban areas. They conclude that "a major distinction between developed wealthier nations and poorer less developed nations is the quality and quantity of education and training, seen as human capital. Findings reported here suggest that upgrading schooling of women and children increasing the opportunity cost of their time, will depress family sizes. This is seen as an important policy measure improving the quality of life for the poor."
Correspondence: W. L. Nieuwoudt, University of Natal, POB 375, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20249 Niraula, Bhanu B. Further evidence of the onset of fertility decline in Nepal. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 5, No. 4, Dec 1990. 57-66 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The author attempts to verify that Nepal is currently experiencing a fertility decline, using data from a study conducted between August 1988 and January 1989 in a village in central Nepal. Results are compared with those from prior studies, including the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey. "Judging from the consistency of estimated fertility obtained from various sources, it can, therefore, be concluded that fertility has started to decline in the study village and probably has done so in other parts of rural Nepal."
Correspondence: B. B. Niraula, Agricultural Projects Services Centre, Kathmandu, Nepal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20250 Njogu, Wamucii E. Fertility change in Kenya: evidence from the proximate determinants of fertility. Pub. Order No. DA9009577. 1989. 195 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"For several African countries, including Kenya, the recent availability of relatively comparable data derived from special surveys conducted in the 1970s and the 1980s provides a unique opportunity to study fertility change in Africa. Four proximate determinants were identified as of particular relevance for fertility levels and trends in Kenya: marital patterns (the proportions married among women of reproductive age and type of marital unions); the length of time following each birth during which the woman is not susceptible to a new pregnancy (post-partum infecundability resulting from breastfeeding and/or post-partum abstinence); contraceptive use; and the extent of secondary or primary sterility. Due to the multiplicity of population sub-groups in Kenya, the dissertation analysed fertility change at the aggregate and sub-group level. The groups considered in this analysis were classified according to ethnicity, education, type of current residence (rural and urban) and religion....The dissertation concludes that the beginning of the fertility transition may have started in Kenya and that some groups are farther in the process of change than others."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Wisconsin.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(2).

57:20251 Okojie, Christiana E. E. Fertility response to child survival in Nigeria: an analysis of microdata from Bendel state. Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper, No. 592, Nov 1989. 23 pp. Yale University, Economic Growth Center: New Haven, Connecticut. In Eng.
"The paper analyzes the response of fertility to own child survival among respondents in Bendel State of Nigeria. The micro-economic theory of fertility behavior provides the theoretical framework for the analysis. Fertility is specified as a function of price and income variables and the survival ratio--two equations were estimated. Actual survival ratio is used as a regressor in the first equation. A preferred two-stage procedure is also used in which the survival ratio is estimated by the method of instrumental variables, because of its endogeneity. The survival ratio has a negative and statistically significant association with fertility for all sub-groups--all women, age groups and rural-urban women respectively....Results suggest the need to reduce mortality levels significantly and fertility will respond rapidly to changes in mortality levels."
Correspondence: Yale University, Economic Growth Center, Box 1987, Yale Station, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20252 Pathak, K. B.; Ram, F.; Singh, B. S. Estimation of birth rates from age distribution of population for India and its major states 1971-81. Demography India, Vol. 17, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1988. 197-203 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In the present paper, an attempt is made to estimate the birth rate for India and its states using different methods. The selected methods are those which are generally used at the national and sub-national levels."
Correspondence: K. B. Pathak, International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20253 Perrenoud, Alfred. Aspects of fertility decline in an urban setting: Rouen and Geneva. In: Urbanization in history, edited by A. D. Van der Woude, Jan de Vries, and Akira Hayami. 1990. 243-63 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author examines the importance of urbanization in the process of fertility decline in the towns of Rouen, France, and Geneva, Switzerland, during the period 1625-1810. Questions considered include: "How did the practice of birth control become diffused throughout the population? How was it transmitted from one social group to the remainder of the population? What were the processes of diffusion and their several stages?" The author uses family reconstitution to estimate the spread of birth control activity throughout the urban areas. He concludes that there is ample evidence to support the view of a specifically urban system of reproductive behavior.
Correspondence: A. Perrenoud, Universite de Geneve, Faculte des Sciences Economiques et Sociales, Departement d'Histoire Economique, 3 place de l'Universite, 1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20254 Perusse, Daniel. Social success and reproductive success in modern societies: a socio-biological analysis. [Succes social et succes reproductif dans les societes modernes: une analyse sociobiologique.] Anthropologie et Societes, Vol. 12, No. 3, 1988. 151-74 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
A socio-biological hypothesis is presented that predicts a positive relation between social and reproductive success among individuals. "A detailed theoretical model of the relation is formulated, and tested by means of a review of the pertinent studies done in modern societies, where the positive relation between the two forms of success seems the less likely."
Correspondence: D. Perusse, Universite de Montreal, Departement d'Anthropologie, C.P. 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:20255 Rashad, Hoda; El-Issawy, Ossama. Period effects on fertility for parity cohorts, Egypt: 1965-1980. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 24, No. 1, Jun 1990. 1-16 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
"This paper presents a detailed investigation of period fertility trends in Egypt. It focusses on parity groups and changes in quantum and tempo of fertility of these groups. The analysis is further refined by controlling for age within each parity considered. The source of data...is the Egyptian Fertility Survey (EFS 80)....a retrospective fertility survey collected from a sample of 8,788 ever married Egyptian women in 1980."
Correspondence: H. Rashad, 12 Ahmed Fouad Nessim, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20256 Raut, L. K. Capital accumulation, income distribution and endogenous fertility in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 34, No. 1-2, 1991. 123-50 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper studies the intertemporal relationships among population growth, income distribution, inter-generational social mobility, skill composition of the labor force, and household income in an overlapping generations general equilibrium model that aggregates household decisions regarding fertility, savings and investment in human capital of children. It shows that as a consequence of endogenous fertility, the equilibrium path attains steady state from the second generation. Income tax transfer, child taxation, and social security taxation policies that can be devised to affect these variables are also analyzed. The model provides a structural explanation for the inverse household income-child quantity and negative child quality-quantity relationships that are observed in developing countries. It also shows that group interests may hinder the emergence of perfect capital markets with private initiatives."
Correspondence: L. K. Raut, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:20257 Rogers, Alan R. Evolutionary economics of human reproduction. Ethology and Sociobiology, Vol. 11, No. 6, Nov 1990. 479-95 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The 'Leslie matrix' of demography is extended to deal with categories of wealth, rather than age, and is used to build an evolutionary model of the effect of heritable wealth on reproductive decisions. Optimal reproductive strategies are assumed to be those that maximize the long-term rate of growth in the numbers of one's descendents. In poor environments, the optimal strategy is to maximize the wealth inherited by each offspring, which requires limiting their numbers. In rich environments, on the other hand, it pays to maximize the number of offspring. Strong positive correlations between wealth and the number of offspring are predicted only in rich environments. Therefore, evidence that the rich reproduce more slowly than the poor is not inconsistent with the hypothesis that reproductive strategies have been shaped by evolution."
Correspondence: A. R. Rogers, University of Utah, Department of Anthropology, 102 Stewart Hall, Salt Lake City, UT 84112. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

57:20258 Ruseva, Anastasiya. Probabilities for family increase with a child from the next rank. [Veroyatnosti za uvelichavane na semeistvata s dete ot sledvast rang.] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1989. 74-81 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author analyzes the number of live births by cohorts of Bulgarian women, based on data from the censuses of 1965, 1975, and 1985. She concludes that there is a trend toward smaller families representing a changed attitude among women concerning desired family size.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20259 Sardon, Jean-Paul. Cohort fertility in member states of the Council of Europe: with contributions by the members of the Committee of Experts on cohort fertility. Council of Europe Population Studies, No. 21, ISBN 92-871-1790-X. 1990. 187 pp. Council of Europe: Strasbourg, France. In Eng.
This is a report on trends in fertility by cohort in Europe since 1901 which was prepared for the Council of Europe's European Population Committee. Fertility trends over the course of the twentieth century are first reviewed. The author considers completed fertility by cohort, the replacement of generations, the comparison of period and cohort indices, changes in maternal age, age-specific fertility, family structure, parity progression ratios, family size, and childlessness. The publication includes country reports and the conclusions of the Expert Committee on Cohort Fertility.
Correspondence: Council of Europe, Publications and Documents Division, F-67006, Strasbourg Cedex, France. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20260 Sardon, Jean-Paul. The replacement of generations in Europe since 1900. [Le remplacement des generations en Europe depuis le debut du siecle.] Population, Vol. 45, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1990. 947-67 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The focus of this article is on population replacement in Europe since 1900. The author discusses changes in fertility by cohort and the effect mortality decrease has had on the replacement of the population. He notes that this decline in mortality has reduced the number of children required to achieve replacement fertility. However, few cohorts born during the course of the twentieth century have so far achieved the level of fertility necessary to ensure replacement.
Correspondence: J.-P. Sardon, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20261 Sato, Ryuzaburo; Hayashi, Kenji. A study on the proximate determinants of fertility decline in China. Japanese Journal of Health and Human Ecology, Vol. 56, No. 3, 1990. 131-41 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The proximate determinants of fertility decline in China are examined for the period 1971-1981. Findings reveal that contraceptive use, marriage postponement, and induced abortion have all contributed to reduced fertility levels. The impact of family planning policy is discussed.
Correspondence: R. Sato, Institute of Public Health, Department of Public Health Demography, 4-6-1 Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20262 Sprague, Alison. Work, marriage and births: an economic analysis of British women born 1920-1964. Pub. Order No. BRD-88672. 1987. 242 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The thesis presents a number of empirical investigations into [British] female labour supply, fertility and marriage. Two sets of data are employed in the analysis, both based on twentieth-century women: firstly, aggregate time series data on age-specific fertility and female labour force participation rates, and, secondly, data from the 1980 Women and Employment Survey....Finally, the retrospective data are used to model durations to marriage, first, second and third births. Logistic hazard models are estimated for a full sample and by cohort. Covariates entered are potential earnings, age and social class variables. The results suggest that high potential earnings delay marriage (for all women) and child-birth, shorten the interval between the first and second birth, but have no effect on the risk of a third birth. Age effects on each duration are positive. Social class effects are found for the second birth model only."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Oxford.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(1).

57:20263 Suffian, Abu J. M. Socioeconomic factors and fertility in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. Biology and Society, Vol. 7, No. 4, Dec 1990. 186-93 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"To assess the effects of socioeconomic factors on the number of living children in a sample from the city of Al-Khobar, Eastern Province, Saudi Arabia, three groups of families were examined: Saudis only, all Arabs (i.e. Saudis and other expatriate Arabs), and the total sample (Saudis, other Arabs, and non-Arabs combined). Wife's age, her education (both high and medium), and family income are the variables common to all the three groups that significantly affect the number of living children."
Correspondence: A. J. M. Sufian, King Faisal University, Dammam 31451, Saudi Arabia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20264 van Mechelen, Frans. Is Europe dying out? [Sterft Europa uit?] Horizonreeks, No. 71, ISBN 90-6152-492-2. LC 88-104866. 1987. 138 pp. Davidsfonds: Louvain, Belgium. In Dut.
The author analyzes the causes of the rapid decline in fertility in contemporary Europe, considering factors such as changes in family life, urbanization, medical improvements, and religion. He then examines ways to increase fertility to avoid further declines in population.
Correspondence: Davidsfonds, Vzw, Blyde Inkomststraat 78-81, 3000 Louvain, Belgium. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:20265 Wachter, Kenneth W. Elusive cycles: are there dynamically possible Lee-Easterlin models for U.S. births? Population Studies, Vol. 45, No. 1, Mar 1991. 109-35 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The performance of formal demographic feedback models, like Ronald Lee's, provides a test of whether theories of endogenous fertility adjustment, like Richard Easterlin's, can explain the cyclic swings in U.S. and other births that they were designed to explain. This paper shows how the specification of a demographic feedback model determines its ability to sustain cycles of a given period and amplitude observed in data. Only a few of the many versions of Easterlin-style theories imply formal models which do prove capable of matching U.S. targets, and then only by narrow margins. The general methods presented here are suitable for a broad investigation of the possible role of age-specific feedback in the diversity of more and less cyclic patterns in birth series in the developed world."
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20266 Xie, Yu. What is natural fertility? The remodeling of a concept. Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 4, Winter 1990. 656-63 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
This paper applies three log-linear models to Louis Henry's original 1961 natural fertility data in order to test various assumptions leading to ways of obtaining a standard natural fertility schedule through explicit modeling. "The models specify that births follow an independent Poisson distribution for each age interval of each population. All parameters are estimated through an iterative maximum-likelihood procedure." The author suggests that the model selected provides better estimates of the standard natural fertility function than previous models.
Correspondence: Y. Xie, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20267 Yadava, Surendar S. Migration and fertility in India. Pub. Order No. DA9012087. 1989. 141 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The main focus of this dissertation is to investigate the relationship between internal migration and the overall fertility of developing countries....Because of the differences between rural and urban fertility rates, the overall fertility of a country at a given time is largely a function of the rural-urban distribution of its population, and since the main stream of migration is typically from rural to urban areas, the future fertility rate of a country is importantly a function of the rates of rural to urban migration....This dissertation will examine the relationship between migration and fertility in India, and provide an empirical test of some of the explanations of these relationships."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Michigan State University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 50(12).

57:20268 Zavala de Cosio, M. E. The decline of fertility in Mexico from 1970 to 1981. [La baisse de la fecondite au Mexique de 1970 a 1981.] Documents de Recherche du CREDAL, No. 59, May 1988. [93] pp. Institut des Hautes Etudes de l'Amerique Latine, Centre de Recherche et de Documentation sur l'Amerique Latine [CREDAL]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The fertility decline that occurred in Mexico from 1970 to 1981 is analyzed, based primarily on official Mexican sources. The author examines changes in cohort fertility, changes over time in age at marriage, marital fertility, and age-specific fertility. A final chapter assesses the contribution of the country's population program to the demographic transition that has occurred. The author concludes that the adoption by a small section of the female population of new attitudes toward marriage and the family was followed by the rapid spread of contraceptive practice among all sectors of society after 1976.
Correspondence: Institut des Hautes Etudes de l'Amerique Latine, Centre de Recherche et de Documentation sur l'Amerique Latine, 28 rue Saint-Guillaume, 75007 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20269 Zhang, Junsen. Mortality and fertility: how large is the direct child replacement effect in China? Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 4, 1990. 303-14 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"Olsen (1980) proposed a method for quantifying the fertility response to child mortality. He showed how to correct for bias in the OLS [ordinary least squares] estimator. He also proposed the use of mortality rates as an instrumental variable....The objectives of this paper are to test Olsen's method using data from China's 1985 In-Depth Fertility Survey, and to estimate the size of the direct replacement effect in China and compare it with similar effects in other developing countries. It is found that Olsen's method seems to work well with the Chinese data. The replacement effect is about 0.6, three times as large as those found in similar studies; several explanations are provided for this result."
For the 1980 article by Olsen, see 47:2328.
Correspondence: J. Zhang, Australian National University, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

57:20270 Arora, D. R.; Agarwal, B. K.; Gupta, A. K. A study on fertility variations among rural women of Ludhiana (Punjab). Punjab Agricultural University Journal of Research, Vol. 26, No. 2, Jun 1989. 311-4 pp. Ludhiana, India. In Eng.
This is a report of a study to identify the socioeconomic characteristics associated with fertility differences among rural women in Ludhiana, India. Findings indicate that caste, married life span, and age at marriage were significantly associated with both number of children and spacing of births, while occupation, family income, and employment had little impact.
Correspondence: D. R. Arora, Department of Economics and Sociology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20271 Darsky, Leonid; Scherbov, Sergei. Parity-progression fertility tables for the nationalities of the USSR. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-90-53, Sep 1990. vii, 26 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"Using data from a socio-demographic survey conducted in 1985 in the USSR, fertility parity-progression tables were constructed for the 17 most populated Soviet nationalities. These tables give the probability of a woman who gave birth to a child between 1970 and 1974 to have her next child by the time of the survey. Using World Fertility Survey data, the model of natural fertility by parity was built and two subgroups of women were identified: those who control family size and those who do not. Nationalities differ considerably by the proportion of women who control childbearing (from 17% for the Tajiks to 99% for the Jews), and by TFR for those who control family size (from 4.2 for the Tajiks to 1.5 for the Jews)."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20272 Gubhaju, Bhakta; Shahidullah, M. A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 5, No. 4, Dec 1990. 47-56 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The authors examine differentials in fertility decline among Fijians and Indians in Fiji for the period 1966-1986. The results show that a decline in marital fertility, an increase in age at marriage, and a rising family planning acceptance rate are the main factors for the decline. The family planning acceptance rate among Indians is almost twice as high as among Fijians.
Correspondence: B. Gubhaju, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, Graduate Programme in Demography, P.O. Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20273 Hari, M. Modernisation and fertility differentials. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 35, No. 4, Jun 1989. 13-21 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The impact of modernization on fertility behavior in India is examined. "An attempt has been made in the present paper to examine whether those who are less modern differ from the more modern with regard to fertility measures such as cumulative fertility, ideal family size, desired family size and additional family size." Data are from a sample survey carried out in Andhra Pradesh.
Correspondence: M. Hari, Sri Venkateswara University, Department of Population Studies, Tirupati 517 502, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20274 Lee, Bun Song. The effects of income level, income distribution, education and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 administrative regions of China. Korea Journal of Population and Development, Vol. 19, No. 1, Jul 1990. 91-111 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the effects of income level, income distribution, education, and urbanization on fertility rates among 28 major provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions of China, circa 1982." Data are primarily from the 1982 census. "The existing evidence on this important issue is inconclusive. In particular, our use of cross-province data for a single country improves upon the existing literature which employed either cross-country data or individual household data."
Correspondence: B. S. Lee, University of Nebraska, Department of Economics, Omaha, NE 68182. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20275 Okojie, Christiana E. E. Women's status and fertility in Bendel State of Nigeria. Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper, No. 597, Feb 1990. 30 pp. Yale University, Economic Growth Center: New Haven, Connecticut. In Eng.
"This paper reports empirical evidence on socioeconomic fertility differentials from a 1985 sample of 15 rural and urban communities in Bendel State of Nigeria. A review of the literature on female status and fertility explores distinctions between the economic framework of fertility determinants, based on factors affecting market productivity or 'public status,' and the sociological framework that emphasizes intrafamily relationships that determine 'private status' of women and men. Among the factors that are particularly important in accounting for fertility differences in this survey are female education which decreases completed fertility, and husband education which increases fertility."
Correspondence: Yale University, Economic Growth Center, Box 1987, Yale Station, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20276 Poston, Dudley L. Voluntary and involuntary childlessness among Catholic and non-Catholic women: are the patterns converging? Social Biology, Vol. 37, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1990. 251-65 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Data from 1976 and 1982 show [U.S.] Catholics less likely than non-Catholics to be voluntarily childless and more likely to be involuntarily childless. Declining differences in fertility and contraception are discussed."
This is a revised version of a paper coauthored with Kathryn Beth Kramer and presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 507).
Correspondence: D. L. Poston, Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Ithaca, NY 14853. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20277 Ram, B.; George, M. V. Immigrant fertility patterns in Canada, 1961-1986. International Migration/Migrations Internationales/Migraciones Internacionales, Vol. 28, No. 4, Dec 1990. 413-26 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This paper has examined the fertility of immigrants who arrived in Canada at various periods in the recent past. Cumulative and current fertility measures derived from 1961, 1971, 1981 and 1986 censuses have indicated that immigrants tend to have children at a lower rate during the periods when they are immigrating, but at a higher rate after immigrating. However, once they have resided in the host country for a certain length of time, their fertility may either converge with that of the native-born population or may become even lower."
Correspondence: B. Ram, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20278 Schoorl, J. J. Fertility adaptation of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands. International Migration/Migrations Internationales/Migraciones Internacionales, Vol. 28, No. 4, Dec 1990. 477-95 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"After a short overview of fertility trends among Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in the Netherlands, based upon population and vital registration data, determinants of these trends are analysed using survey data on cumulative fertility as well as on desired fertility." The author concludes that although "a long time series of data is not yet available due to the fairly recent history of the migration of Turkish and Moroccan women to the Netherlands, it appears that their fertility level is declining. Migrant fertility levels are lower than in the countries of origin....Factors in the decline of overall immigrant fertility are variables related to the country of destination: work and education, insofar as this education was received in the Netherlands."
Correspondence: J. J. Schoorl, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20279 Srivastava, J. N.; Saksena, D. N. Hindu-Muslim differentials in family size ideals by socio-economic status. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 35, No. 4, Jun 1989. 38-48 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The authors investigate the fertility differentials among Muslims and Hindus in India. Family size ideals are compared for the two religions after controlling for socioeconomic factors.
Correspondence: J. N. Srivastava, Lucknow University, Department of Economics, Population Research Centre, Badshah Bagh, Lucknow 226 007, Uttar Pradesh, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20280 Trovato, Frank. Rural-urban migration and fertility in Costa Rica. International Review of Modern Sociology, Vol. 17, No. 2, Fall 1987. 257-71 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Costa Rica is explored using data from a random subsample of ever-married women taken from the 1973 census. "Using a regression standardization methodology as a proxy for the assimilation process, the results are generally consistent with the established literature that migrants in urban areas eventually reduce their fertility once assimilation to the urban milieu has taken place."
Correspondence: F. Trovato, University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: New York Public Library.

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

57:20281 Akam, Evina. Infertility and subfertility: an evaluation and investigation of the determinants. The case of Cameroon. [Infecondite et sous-fecondite: evaluation et recherche des facteurs. Le cas de Cameroun.] Les Cahiers de l'IFORD, No. 1, ISBN 2-905327-11-1. Feb 1990. 281 pp. Institut de Formation et de Recherche Demographiques [IFORD]: Yaounde, Cameroon. In Fre.
An analysis of the geographic differences in fertility and subfertility in Cameroon is presented using data from various official sources, including the demographic survey of 1960-1965 and the national fertility survey of 1978. The literature on infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa is first reviewed. A methodology for identifying the major factors affecting infertility is outlined, and the quality of the available data sources is assessed. Infertility in Cameroon is then compared to other countries. The primary factors affecting infertility are identified as method of delivery, educational status, number of marital unions, and religion, with the same four factors plus age at first marital union affecting subfertility.
Correspondence: Institut de Formation et de Recherche Demographiques, B.P. 1556, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20282 Larsen, Ulla; Menken, Jane. Individual-level sterility: a new method of estimation with application to Sub-Saharan Africa. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 2, May 1991. 229-47 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper extends work on measures of population proportions sterile to propose a new estimator of an individual woman's age at sterility and consequently her sterility status at given ages. Accuracy and reliability, examined in a simulation study, appear satisfactory. From World Fertility Survey data for five African counties [Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, and Sudan], the proportions sterile by age estimated by the individual measure and by the population estimator are almost identical. Cameroon and Kenya show substantial variation in prevalence and incidence of sterility across ethnic groups and by number of marriages. Unexpectedly, the evidence suggests that sterility increased from 1960 on in Kenya and remained unchanged in Cameroon."
Correspondence: U. Larsen, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, Stony Brook, NY 11794-4356. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20283 Riphagen, F. E. Fecundity, fertility, and sterility: assessment and controversy. [Fertilite, fecondite et sterilite: evaluation et controverse.] Contraception--Fertilite--Sexualite, Vol. 18, No. 3, 1990. 193-9 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews problems concerning infertility in developed countries. Topics covered include natural fertility, "demographic and social trends in family planning such as increasing maternal age at first childbirth, the increase of age-specific infertility rates through known ([adnexitis]), unknown (the environment) or debatable (induced abortion, certain contraceptive methods) causes, and the availability of highly developed techniques to assist conception. The actual prevalence of infertility is poorly documented and is either derived from demographic surveys or from hospital populations. To record the true prevalence of infertility, population-based surveys including infertility specialist confirmation of the etiology are needed. One survey of this type indicates a lifetime prevalence of 17% of couples."
Correspondence: F. E. Riphagen, Generaal de Longuevillelaan 6, 1150 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

57:20284 Angeli, Aurora; Salvini, Silvana. Family planning and reproductive behavior in the Islamic countries of the Mediterranean. [Pianificazione familiare e comportamenti riproduttivi nei paesi Islamici dell'area mediterranea.] Genus, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1990. 109-32 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The relationships among reproductive behavior, socioeconomic factors, and family planning programs in the Islamic countries of the Mediterranean are examined, with particular emphasis on Morocco, using data from the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. Findings reveal that the educational level of women and the availability of services have the greatest impact on fertility decline and contraceptive use.
Correspondence: A. Angeli, Universita degli Studi, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Via Zamboni 33, 40126 Bologna, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20285 Arowolo, O. O. Contraceptive use dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 196-201 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter reports early results of an investigation of the social and behavioural circumstances of contraceptive choice, discontinuation and failure using data collected in a survey of currently married women of reproductive age at Lagos, Nigeria. The questionnaire instrument included a retrospective calendar of reproductive behaviour, which caused a number of problems, including high non-response and inadequate recall of timing of reproductive events, especially among less educated women. As a result, life-table techniques could not be used to analyse contraceptive continuation or failure. Nevertheless, the new indirect current-status failure rate method yielded plausible estimates of annual failure rates."
Correspondence: O. O. Arowolo, International Labour Organisation, Regional Department for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20286 Choe, Minja Kim; Zablan, Zelda C. Contraceptive use discontinuation and failure rates in the Philippines: estimates from the 1986 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 83-96 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"Following a critical discussion of the types of information on contraceptive use that were gathered in the 1986 Philippines Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, this chapter examines selected indicators of the quality of data obtained. Based on information from the calendar data, the paper presents estimates of average annual contraceptive discontinuation rates, by reason for discontinuation (including contraceptive failure), as well as life-table use-failure and continuation rates for the first 12 months of use. The discussion focuses on methodological issues. Consistent with results from several earlier surveys in the Philippines, the 1986 survey shows high levels of use failure for most types of contraception and high rates of method switching."
Correspondence: M. K. Choe, East-West Center, East-West Population Institute, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20287 Choe, Minja Kim; Tsuya, Noriko O. Why do Chinese women practice contraception? The case of rural Jilin Province. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 22, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1991. 39-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study focuses on the relationship between contraceptive behavior, family size preferences, and perceptions of the one-child policy among young Chinese women in rural areas of Jilin Province. In 1985, about 85 percent of rural married women with one surviving child were practicing contraception, although most of them reported two as their ideal number of children. Most women with one surviving child, including those with one-child certificates, were practicing contraception in response to the government campaign, while more than half of women with two or more children were doing so voluntarily. Most of the women with one child were using the IUD, whereas more than half of women with two or more children were sterilized."
Correspondence: M. K. Choe, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20288 Chung, Sung-Ho. Determinants of fertility control in Korea. Korea Journal of Population and Development, Vol. 19, No. 1, Jul 1990. 27-46 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng.
"The objective of this study is to examine the socioeconomic and intervening determinants of fertility control in [the Republic of] Korea....The data come from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey, which was conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey. The study focuses on the relative importance of the socioeconomic factors and intervening variables in the determination of fertility control. The most interesting finding is that there are only small differentials in fertility control by socioeconomic factors. The analysis emphasizes the importance of examining the determinants of fertility control in terms of the intervening variables, which include the components of natural fertility, desired family size, and costs of fertility control."
Correspondence: S.-H. Chung, Yonsei University, Department of Sociology, 134 Shinchon-dong, Sudaemoon-gu, Seoul 120, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20289 Dackam Ngatchou, Richard; Mfoulou, Raphael; Sala-Diakanda, Mpembele. Population and family health in Central Africa. [Population et sante familiale en Afrique centrale.] 1990. 125 pp. International Planned Parenthood Federation [IPPF]: London, England. In Fre.
This document was prepared as background material for a workshop on family planning in Central Africa and Madagascar, which was one in a series of regional workshops in Africa organized by IPPF. The report first describes traditional methods of fertility control practiced in the region. Next, the factors affecting natural increase are examined, including fertility, infertility and mortality. The following two chapters are concerned with the factors affecting maternal morbidity and mortality. Family planning policies and programs in the region are then described. The report concludes by spelling out the health arguments for family planning.
Correspondence: International Planned Parenthood Federation, Regent's College, Regent's Park, London NW1 4NS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20290 Diczfalusy, Egon. Contraceptive prevalence, reproductive health and our common future. Contraception, Vol. 43, No. 3, Mar 1991. 201-27 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The author discusses future prospects for contraceptive use and reproductive health worldwide. The situation "will depend not only on the availability of a wider choice of safe, acceptable and affordable contraceptives and greatly increased international and national funding, but also on fundamental changes in a number of behavioural, educational, sociocultural, economic and, last but not least, political factors. The perception of many governments must also change; they must realize that contraceptive prevalence represents the key not only to improved reproductive and environmental health, but also to demographic and economic development."
Correspondence: E. Diczfalusy, Karolinska Institutet, Solnavagen 1, POB 60400, 104 01 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20291 Goldman, Noreen; Moreno, Lorenzo; Westoff, Charles F.; Vaughan, Barbara. Estimates of contraceptive failure and discontinuation based on two methods of contraceptive data collection in Peru. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 171-83 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter compares and evaluates two approaches to the collection of information on contraceptive use: a monthly status calendar (the experimental questionnaire); and a set of questions employed in the core questionnaire of the Demographic and Health Survey. The data are derived from an experimental field-test carried out as part of the DHS project in Peru. The analysis indicates that estimates of current contraceptive use as well as estimates of contraceptive failure are reasonably similar between the two questionnaires. However, estimates of use for periods prior to the survey and estimates of contraceptive discontinuation based on the experimental calendar are considerably more accurate than those based on the core questionnaire. There are several additional advantages of the calendar data over the information collected in the core: there are fewer inconsistent pieces of information; the format of data collection allows the analyst and interviewer to check for certain types of inconsistencies; fewer data are missing; and heaping of reported durations is much less frequent."
Correspondence: N. Goldman, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20292 Hammouda, Ahmad A. Policy implications and future program issues of family planning and fertility reduction in Jordan. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 23, Dec 1989. 1-25 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper is to deduce the main issues and future policies and program directions of family planning and related development (i.e. non-family planning) activities to reduce fertility levels in Jordan....The study utilizes the available published data provided mainly by the 1976 Jordan fertility survey and the 1983 Fertility and Family Health Survey, and the 1985 Jordan Husbands Survey. Differentials and changes in the 'age at marriage', contraceptive use, breastfeeding and postpartum infecundability were discussed, with regard to their correlations with the socio-economic, cultural background characteristics and their impact on fertility levels and trends."
Correspondence: A. A. Hammouda, University of Jordan, Faculty of Arts, Department of Population Studies, Amman, Jordan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20293 Kamalanathan, J. P. Comparative study on the acceptance and use of contraceptive methods in a rural population in Kelantan. Malaysian Journal of Reproductive Health, Vol. 8, No. 2, Dec 1990. 66-71 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng.
The author examines the impact of cultural beliefs, education, and ethnic group on family planning acceptance and contraceptive use in a rural population in Malaysia. Findings reveal that 44.85 percent of women use some form of contraception and that birth spacing is probably due to the prevalence of breast-feeding.
Correspondence: J. P. Kamalanathan, Krai Clinic, 129 Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, Kuala Krai 1800, Kelantan, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20294 Kay, Bonnie J.; Germain, Adrienne; Bangser, Maggie. The Bangladesh women's health coalition. Quality/Calidad/Qualite, No. 3, 1991. 24 pp. Population Council: New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The authors present an overview of the Bangladesh Women's Health Coalition (BWHC), which was founded in 1980 and operates family planning and women's health clinics. Consideration is given to the service setting, staffing and supervision, counseling activities, menstrual regulation services, management structure and record-keeping systems, training of government paramedics, and service costs. Profiles of typical clients are included.
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20295 Kost, Kathryn; Forrest, Jacqueline D.; Harlap, Susan. Comparing the health risks and benefits of contraceptive choices. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1991. 54-61 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Simulation models were used to compare the health consequences of birth control methods currently relied on by American women with those of using no method. The incidence of morbidity and mortality related to unintended pregnancies, live births, abortions, upper genital tract infections, tubal infertility, cardiovascular disease and reproductive cancers were estimated for hypothetical cohorts of 100,000 women aged 15-44. Women who never use any method and who never have an abortion would have an average of 18 births during their reproductive lifetime, compared with no more than five among women using any of the available birth control methods. Consequently, use of any method prevents more deaths from pregnancy and childbirth than are associated with method use."
Correspondence: K. Kost, Alan Guttmacher Institute, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20296 Lambrecht, Petra; Mertens, Heide. Small family--happy family: international population policy and family planning in India. [Small family--happy family: internationale Bevolkerungspolitik und Familienplanung in Indien.] Sozialwissenschaftliche Frauenstudien an der Universitat Munster, ISBN 3-924550-39-5. LC 90-186246. 1989. 203 pp. Westfalisches Dampfboot: Munster, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The first part of this book deals with the theoretical, ideological, and political background of the debate concerning overpopulation in developing countries. The family planning programs of international organizations are also described. In the second part, population policies and family planning in India are examined. The actual situation and family size expectations of Indian women are contrasted with the approaches and goals of government policy.
Correspondence: Verlag Westfalisches Dampfboot, Achtermannstrasse 10, 4400 Munster, Germany. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:20297 McFarlane, Carmen; Warren, Charles. 1989 Jamaica Contraceptive Prevalence Survey: final report. Dec 1989. ix, 263 pp. National Family Planning Board: Kingston, Jamaica. In Eng.
The results of the 1989 contraceptive prevalence survey, the fourth in a series carried out in Jamaica since 1974, are presented in this report. As well as information on contraception, data are included on fertility, infant and child mortality, maternal and child health, utilization of health services, and behavioral factors related to reproduction. The survey covered a national sample of 6,112 women aged 15-49.
Correspondence: National Family Planning Board, 5 Sylvan Avenue, Kingston 5, Jamaica. Location: New York Public Library.

57:20298 McLaren, Angus. A history of contraception: from antiquity to the present day. Family: Sexuality and Social Relations in Past Times, ISBN 0-631-16711-0. LC 90-34917. 1990. viii, 275 pp. Basil Blackwell: Cambridge, Massachusetts/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This is a study of the history of fertility regulation throughout the world and is based on two premises. "The first is that there have always been societies, or at least important groups within them, who have for one reason or another, at some periods in their history, taken steps to limit their progeny....The second premise...is that reproductive decisions are of greater significance to women than to men....In each of the book's seven chapters--devoted to the Greek world, the Roman Empire, the Christian west, the Middle Ages, early modern Europe, the industrializing west and the twentieth century--the intent has been to flush out the intended and unintended consequences of fertility control and the relationship to changing family forms and gender roles."
Correspondence: Basil Blackwell, 3 Cambridge Center, Cambridge, MA 02142. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20299 Milsom, Ian; Sundell, Gunilla; Andersch, Bjorn. A longitudinal study of contraception and pregnancy outcome in a representative sample of young Swedish women. Contraception, Vol. 43, No. 2, Feb 1991. 111-9 pp. Stoneham, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"The prevalence of contraception and pregnancy history in the same women, aged 19 and 24 years, was assessed in a longitudinal cohort study by means of a postal questionnaire. A one-in-four random sample of all the women born [in] 1962, [residing] in the city of Goteborg [Sweden] in 1981, was obtained from the population register (n=656)....Respondents from 1981 were re-assessed in 1986...(n=488)...." The two groups were compared with respect to contraceptive use, type of contraceptive chosen, reasons for discontinuing contraception, pregnancies reported, and pregnancies terminated by legal abortion.
Correspondence: I. Milsom, University of Goteborg, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, East Hospital, S-416 Goteborg, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20300 Moreno, Lorenzo; Goldman, Noreen; Babakol, Ozer. Use of a monthly calendar for collecting retrospective data on contraception: an evaluation of the DHS experimental field studies. OPR Working Paper Series, No. 91-2, Sep 1990. 17, [9] pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"A methodological experiment was conducted as part of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) project to determine whether different approaches to measuring the same variables would yield similar results. The experiment consisted of the use of a new questionnaire, incorporating variants of many of the traditional approaches to the collection of demographic and health data....The most salient feature of this new questionnaire was the use of a six-year monthly calendar to record recent events....In this paper, we evaluate whether the use of the calendar in the experimental questionnaire improved the quality of the resulting information on contraception in the Peru and the Dominican Republic DHS surveys. Specifically, we determine whether the monthly calendar led to better estimates of contraceptive prevalence, failure and discontinuation, and discuss the advantages and drawbacks of the calendar over the more standard approach."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, Working Paper Series, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20301 Oakley, Deborah; Parent, Jeffery. A scale to measure microbehaviors of oral contraceptive pill use. Social Biology, Vol. 37, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1990. 215-22 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"The ways in which contraceptive methods are actually used is of increasing interest to researchers, clinicians, and policy makers. Although contraceptive 'use' has multiple dimensions, existing indicators measure only one aspect of use or combine unidimensional measures to produce a questionable pastiche. This study uses a subsample of 612 respondents from a larger study of first-time patients at a public-health-department family planning clinic to develop a new measure. Psychometric properties of this measure are examined and discussed."
Correspondence: D. Oakley, University of Michigan, School of Nursing, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20302 Oheneba-Sakyi, Yaw. Socio-economic and cultural differentials in contraceptive usage among Ghanaian women. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, Vol. 20, No. 2, Autumn 1990. 139-61 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This study uses data from the Ghana Fertility Survey (GFS) 1979-80 to examine the impact of birth cohort, age at first marriage, formal education, occupation, religion, ethnicity, place of residence, region of residence and desire for future births, on current use of contraception among currently exposed Ghanaian women. The empirical evidence from our study generally suggests that high socio-development and modernizing influences on women help to promote contraception."
Correspondence: Y. Oheneba-Sakyi, State University of New York, Potsdam College, Potsdam, NY 13676. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20303 Raikes, Alanagh. Pregnancy, birthing and family planning in Kenya: changing patterns of behaviour. A health service utilization study in Kisii District. CDR Research Report, No. 15, ISBN 87-88467-17-1. 1990. 192 pp. Centre for Development Research: Copenhagen, Denmark. In Eng.
The author examines the combined impact of antenatal, delivery, and family planning programs on reproduction in Kenya, using the example of Kisii District. The focus is on determining the effectiveness of the integrated approach of providing services to women in a developing country setting, rather than providing family planning service with an emphasis on fertility control.
Correspondence: Centre for Development Research, Ny Kongensgade 9, DK 1472 Copenhagen K, Denmark. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

57:20304 Robertson, William H. An illustrated history of contraception. ISBN 1-85070-108-3. LC 89-9339. 1990. 152 pp. Parthenon Publishing Group: Park Ridge, New Jersey/Carnforth, England. In Eng.
"This is the story of man's attempt to understand and control procreational aspects of human sexuality." The emphasis is on the social and biological factors that have influenced progress from preliterate times to the present. The study concludes with an assessment of the current situation and a review of future prospects.
Correspondence: Parthenon Publishing Group Limited, Casterton Hall, Carnforth, Lancashire LA6 2LA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:20305 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use: proceedings of the United Nations Expert Group Meeting on measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use, New York, 5-7 December 1988. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/106, 1991. xii, 201 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The Population Division [of the United Nations] convened an Expert Group Meeting on Methodologies for Measuring Contraceptive Use Dynamics, which was held at United Nations Headquarters in New York from 5 to 7 December 1988. This publication presents the proceedings of that meeting, which focused primarily on methodological aspects of recently developed techniques for assessing rates of contraceptive use-failure and continuation, and related issues of data collection and data quality. The overview discusses the papers presented in this volume, in the context of the discussions that took place during the Meeting. Part one presents the Meeting's conclusions and recommendations. The papers presented at the Meeting have since been revised by the authors and are presented as chapters in parts two to six of this volume."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20306 Wang, Jichuan. Family planning and fertility transition in Shifang county, Sichuan, People's Republic of China. Pub. Order No. DA9018067. 1990. 306 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"In this dissertation the author systematically introduces one of the Chinese model examples of the family planning program in Shifang County, Sichuan, People's Republic of China. The process and characteristics of the County's fertility transition, as well as other related topics, such as the preference for children and the rapid aging of the County population in the future, were discussed. Focus was placed on exploring the determinants of fertility at both macro and micro levels. The data used is from the author's fertility survey conducted in 1987 in Shifang County....Findings from the study provide evidence that a well managed family planning program can be considered a form of social engineering which is able to promote postponement of marriage, increasing prevalance of contraceptive use, and thus induce fertility decline in the absence of developed socioeconomic conditions. However, changes in the social setting, such as mass education and the diversification of agricultural production, as well as individual characteristics, also have significant effects on fertility."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Cornell University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(1).

57:20307 Weisman, Carol S.; Plichta, Stacey; Nathanson, Constance A.; Ensminger, Margaret; Robinson, J. Courtland. Consistency of condom use for disease prevention among adolescent users of oral contraceptives. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1991. 71-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A six-month prospective study examined consistency of condom use for disease prevention among 308 [U.S.] adolescent women who had received a prescription for oral contraceptives at a family planning clinic. Only 16 percent used condoms consistently over a six-month period, yet 30 percent were considered at high risk for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) because of multiple, sequential or concurrent relationships with male partners. The type of relationship in which the adolescents were involved did not predict consistency of condom use....The findings suggest that family planning providers need to more strongly emphasize to adolescents the importance of consistent condom use to protect against STD infection."
Correspondence: C. S. Weisman, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20308 Winter, Laraine; Breckenmaker, Lynn C. Tailoring family planning services to the special needs of adolescents. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 23, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1991. 24-30 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Experimental service protocols tailored to the needs of teenage family planning patients were developed that emphasized in-depth counseling, education geared to an adolescent's level of development, and the provision of reassurance and social support. These protocols were tested against usual service delivery practices in a study involving 1,261 patients under 18 years of age at six [U.S.] nonmetropolitan family planning clinics. A comparison with teenagers obtaining services at control sites found that six months after their first clinic visit, patients at the experimental sites were more likely to be using a method, were less likely to experience difficulty in dealing with problems, were more likely to continue using their method despite problems and had learned more during the educational session."
Correspondence: L. Winter, Family Health Council of Central Pennsylvania, Camp Hill, PA. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4.2. Clinical Aspects & Use-Effectiveness Studies

57:20309 Akhter, Halida H.; Ahmed, Saifuddin. Contraceptive continuation and failure in rural Bangladesh. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 184-95 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter presents contraceptive use-failure and continuation rates for rural Bangladeshi women, drawing on data gathered in the 1988 Contraceptive Use Dynamics survey. The paper presents both life-table rates and average annual rates based on retrospective data from a month-by-month calendar. The data collection process and data quality are also briefly discussed. Administration of the month-by-month calendar proved feasible, despite the low level of literacy of the study population. Average annual failure rates (Pearl pregnancy rates) for the entire 36-month retrospective period were about 5 per cent for the pill, 2 per cent for intrauterine devices, 6 per cent for rhythm and 18 per cent for the condom. These methods together account for roughly 85 per cent of the use of reversible contraceptives reported in the retrospective calendar. Average annual continuation rates for these methods range from 65 per cent for the condom to 89 per cent for rhythm."
Correspondence: H. H. Akhter, Bangladesh Fertility Research Programme, 3/7 Asad Avenue, Mohammadpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20310 Bongaarts, John; Rodriguez, German. A new method for estimating contraceptive failure rates. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 52-67 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"The first part of this chapter addresses the common perception that contraceptive effectiveness is not a main determinant of fertility levels. The analysis indicates that contraceptive failure rates--which thus far have been primarily of interest to clinicians and to couples choosing a method--can also be of considerable demographic importance....The main purpose of this chapter is to propose a simple new approach to the estimation of average contraceptive failure rates from survey data, which does not require detailed retrospective information and does not involve complicated life-table calculations. This approach is illustrated with applications to data from developing countries collected as part of the World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Surveys."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20311 Doring, Gerhard. Natural methods of family planning: model project for scientific testing and controlled use, National Catholic Advisory Group. [Naturliche Methoden de Familienplanung: Modellprojekt zur wissenschaftlichen Uberprufung und kontrollierten Vermittlung, Katholische Bundesarbeitsgemeinschaft fur Beratung e. V.] Schriftenreihe des Bundesministers fur Jugend, Familie, Frauen und Gesundheit, Vol. 239, ISBN 3-17-010593-0. LC 89-185135. 1988. 249 pp. W. Kohlhammer: Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Findings are presented from a model project designed to study natural family planning methods (NFP) in West Germany. Topics covered include the goals of the project; results of an initial pilot project; background information on family planning in West Germany and characteristics of NFP users; the provision of information on NFP to interested couples; education of NFP counselors; psychological aspects of NFP use; and clinical findings concerning factors such as use-effectiveness, the impact of breast-feeding on fertility, and the acceptability of NFP while breast-feeding.
Correspondence: Verlag W. Kohlhammer, Hessbruhistrasse 69, Postfach 800430, 7000 Stuttgart, Germany. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:20312 Entwisle, Barbara; Sayed, Hussein A.-A. Estimation of use-failure rates for the pill and intrauterine device in Egypt: an assessment of life-table and current-status approaches. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 97-110 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter compares the life-table technique and the new indirect current-status technique for estimating contraceptive failure rates, using data from the Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. It discusses the problem that these data pose for estimating failure rates, including heaping of responses on selected deviations of use, recall errors and different definitions of failure. With both techniques, the authors derive failure rates for the intrauterine device that are within the range of previous studies. The pill rates, however, appear implausibly high. They conclude that each approach is sensitive to the particular definition of failure and the wording of questions."
Correspondence: B. Entwisle, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square 300A, Chapel Hill, NC 27514-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20313 Hammerslough, Charles R. Alternative methodologies to estimate contraceptive use-failure rates applied to the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 71-82 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter uses the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth conducted in the United States to explore different procedures for estimating a variant of the indirect contraceptive failure rate measure. It discusses the relationship of the new measure with Pearl pregnancy rates and life tables and describes in detail the procedures for using NSFG data to estimate the constituent parameters. A bootstrap procedure derives the variances of the indirect failure rate and its sensitivity to variation in the underlying parameters. The chapter concludes that the new measure is insensitive to varying definitions of the parameters, but sensitive to the precision in measuring the p parameter."
Correspondence: C. R. Hammerslough, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20314 Harlap, Susan; Kost, Kathryn; Forrest, Jacqueline D. Preventing pregnancy, protecting health: a new look at birth control choices in the United States. ISBN 0-939253-21-6. 1991. 129 pp. Alan Guttmacher Institute: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This book examines the health consequences of birth control methods used in the United States today. It examines the most up-to-date information available on how the methods affect the likelihood of avoiding an unintended pregnancy, of preventing infertility and of maintaining good health." Sections are included on contraceptive methods and use; future fertility and the effects of sexually transmitted diseases, infections, ectopic pregnancy, and tubal infertility; health effects of contraception, with a focus on cancer and cardiovascular disease; and comparing health effects of contraceptive methods and contraceptive failure.
Correspondence: Alan Guttmacher Institute, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20315 Jejeebhoy, Shireen. Measuring contraceptive use-failure and continuation: an overview of new approaches. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 21-51 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter provides an overview of some recently formulated approaches to measuring contraceptive continuation and failure rates using retrospective survey data rather than more traditional data from clinical trials or programme statistics. These approaches fall into two categories, one relying upon retrospective contraceptive histories, the second upon current-status information. The need for new methodologies is discussed first: conventional applications using clinic and acceptor data are described; some recent results from less developed countries are presented; and their limitations are illustrated. Secondly, and most central to this chapter, each new approach is presented in terms of its data requirements methods of calculation and empirical applications. Lastly, the chapter discusses the sensitivity of these approaches to potential sources of bias."
Correspondence: S. Jejeebhoy, U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20316 Jones, Elise F.; Forrest, Jacqueline D. Use of a supplementary survey of abortion patients to correct contraceptive failure rates for underreporting of abortion. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 139-52 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter addresses the problem of underreporting in fertility surveys of pregnancies that result in induced abortions and the resulting downward bias in estimated contraceptive failure rates. A methodology for correcting the failure rates is developed and applied to the National Survey of Family Growth conducted in the United States in 1982. Using data from an Alan Guttmacher Institute Survey of Abortion Patients in 1987, the correct number of abortions is estimated and incorporated into the numerator for the failure rates. The result is a substantial rise in the number of unintended pregnancies during the first year of use of most methods, from 26 to 91 per cent. Using multivariate models, the chapter also discusses the relationship between the corrected level of contraceptive failure and selected characteristics of contraceptive users. Prospects for applying this correction procedure in other countries, particularly developing countries, are poor, because the data required are not available and, for a variety of reasons, are unlikely to become so in the foreseeable future."
Correspondence: E. F. Jones, Alan Guttmacher Institute, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10211-0500. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20317 Rutenberg, Naomi; Blanc, Ann K. The analytical potential of Demographic and Health Survey data on coital frequency and its implications for estimation of contraceptive failure rates. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 153-67 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter assesses the analytical potential of Demographic and Health Survey data for quantifying the effect of coital frequency on contraceptive failure rates....The chapter first discusses the quality of data and describes patterns of coital frequency for both groups and individuals in three countries: Brazil, Ecuador and Sri Lanka. The DHS data replicate findings from other studies on the covariates of coital frequency. However, indirect annual contraceptive failure rates do not have the expected correlation with coital frequency. Thus, although the DHS data on coital frequency prove to be useful for ascertaining general patterns of coital frequency and for classifying women according to current exposure status, the data have limited utility for explaining variations in failure rates among individuals within a population. The chapter concludes with a discussion of prospects for improving data collection."
Correspondence: N. Rutenberg, Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys Program, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20318 Thapa, Shyam; Hamill, David N. A comparison of two methodologies for estimating contraceptive use dynamics. In: Measuring the dynamics of contraceptive use. 1991. 111-20 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter reports the contraceptive continuation, failure and effectiveness rates from the Sri Lanka Rural Family Planning Survey conducted in 1986. The resulting rates are generally consistent with other surveys, although combination methods, which include the safe period (calendar rhythm) had surprisingly low failure rates. It finds that failure rates calculated with retrospective reproductive behaviour calendars are consistent with indirect current-status estimates. The indirect estimates are robust with respect to variations in definitions of the underlying parameters. The chapter concludes that the simpler indirect approach offers significant advantages in surveys for which underreporting is not a serious problem."
Correspondence: S. Thapa, Family Health International, 1 Triangle Drive, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20319 Trussell, James; Hatcher, Robert A.; Cates, Willard; Stewart, Felicia H.; Kost, Kathryn. A guide to interpreting contraceptive efficacy studies. Obstetrics and Gynecology, Vol. 76, No. 3, Pt. 2, Sep 1990. 558-67 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Results of trials of various birth control methods and contraceptive products may provide misleading data and engender unrealistic expectations regarding efficacy. An analysis of published efficacy trials reveals numerous fallacies in their design, performance, and reporting. Consequently, family planning clinicians find it virtually impossible to make valid comparisons among the methods or products. This article reviews the definitions and measures that have been used to assess contraceptive efficacy, describes and illustrates some of the flaws that confound interpretation and comparison of studies, and presents a set of recommendations for future studies. A summary table providing comparative failure rates for all methods of contraception is included." The geographical focus is primarily on the United States.
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20320 Trussell, James. Methodological pitfalls in the analysis of contraceptive failure. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 10, 1991. 201-20 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"Although the literature on contraceptive failure is vast and is expanding rapidly, our understanding of the relative efficacy of methods is quite limited because of defects in the research design and in the analytical tools used by investigators. Errors in the literature range from simple arithmetical mistakes to outright fraud. In many studies the proportion of the original sample lost to follow-up is so large that the published results have little meaning. Investigators do not routinely use life table techniques to control for duration of exposure; many employ the Pearl index, which suffers from the same problem as does the crude death rate as a measure of mortality. Investigators routinely calculate 'method' failure rates by eliminating 'user' failures from the numerator (pregnancies) but fail to eliminate 'imperfect' use from the denominator (exposure); as a consequence, these 'method' rates are biased do