Volume 57 - Number 2 - Summer 1991

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

57:20078 Macafee, William. The population of Ulster, 1630-1841: evidence from mid-Ulster. Pub. Order No. BRDX89061. 1987. 456 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This thesis traces the growth of population in the province of Ulster [Northern Ireland] from 1630 until the eve of the Great Famine and examines the possible causes of that growth." Chapters are included on the demographic history of Ireland, research methodology using parish registers, seventeenth-century migration, the severe mortality increase during the period 1700-1750, and population dynamics from 1750-1900. The study is in two volumes.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Ulster.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 51(2).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

57:20079 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division. Population Estimates Section (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal estimates of families, Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1990. [Estimations postcensitaires des familles, Canada, provinces et territoires, 1er juin 1990.] Pub. Order No. 91-204. Jan 1991. 31 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Estimates of the number and type of families in Canada are presented by province and territory. The estimates are based on data from the 1986 census.
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20080 Conim, Custodio; Carrilho, Maria J. The demographic situation and future prospects in Portugal, 1960-2000. [Situacao demografica e perspectivas de evolucao, Portugal, 1960-2000.] Caderno IED, No. 16, Jun 1989. 182 pp. Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento [IED]: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
This report summarizes current and future demographic trends in Portugal. The first part, on population trends over the period 1960-1987, includes sections on fertility, mortality, nuptiality, emigration, return migration, internal migration, population characteristics, and the population situation in the European context. The second part presents projections up to the year 2000 and includes consideration of both natural increase and international migration.
Correspondence: Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento, Rua de Sao Domingos a Lapa 111, 3o, 1200 Lisbon, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20081 Das Gupta, Prithwis. Estimates of households by age of householder and tenure for counties: July 1, 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1040-RD-2, Mar 1991. iii, 52 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of households by age of householder and tenure for 3,138 counties and county equivalents in the United States as of July 1, 1985. The two categories of age of householder are 15-64 and 65 and over. Owner households and renter households constitute the two categories of tenure. The report also includes July 1, 1985 estimates of population for counties for age groups 15-64 and 65 and over, that are available in the Census Bureau."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20082 Guatemala. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Guatemala City, Guatemala). Guatemala: urban and rural population estimated by department and municipality, 1985-1990. [Guatemala. Poblacion urbana y rural estimada por departamento y municipios, 1985-90.] Jul 1989. 77 pp. Guatemala City, Guatemala. In Spa.
Population estimates are presented for Guatemala for the period 1985-1990 for rural and urban areas and for departments and municipalities. The estimates are based on the census, including that of 1981.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Edificio America, 8a calle 9-55, zona 1, Guatemala City, C.A., Guatemala. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20083 Levy, Michel L. The population of France in 1989 and 1990. [La population de la France en 1989 et 1990.] Population et Societes, No. 255, Mar 1991. [1-3] pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A summary review of recent demographic trends in France is presented, based on the latest official sources, including the 1990 census.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20084 Minkov, Minko; Donkov, K.; Marinov, St. Population by region, district, and urban and rural settlement. [Broi na naselenieto po oblasti, obstini i naseleni mesta.] LC 89-183935. 1988. 302 pp. Tsentralno Statistichesko Upravlenie: Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul.
Population estimates for Bulgaria are provided by region, district, and rural and urban area according to the new administrative districts established in 1987. Data are from the 1985 census.
Correspondence: Tsentralno Statistichesko Upravlenie, 2 P. Volov, Sofia, Bulgaria. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:20085 Motorin, R. N. Statistical features of demographic development in the USSR and the United States. [Statisticheskaya kharakteristika demograficheskogo razvitiya SSSR i SShA.] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 14, 1990. 131-6 pp. Kiev, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng; Ukr.
"Dynamics of size, composition, natural movement and other demographic indices of...population development in the USSR and USA [are] considered in the paper."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20086 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. The sex and age distributions of population: the 1990 revision of the United Nations global population estimates and projections. Population Studies, No. 122; ST/ESA/SER.A/122, Pub. Order No. E.90.XIII.33. ISBN 92-1-151220-4. 1991. viii, 387 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high and low variants for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1985. The data for smaller countries or areas are included in the regional population totals but are not given separately." The data are based on the twelfth round of population estimates and projections undertaken by the United Nations Secretariat. "A magnetic tape and a set of diskettes containing the major results of the present estimates and projections are available for purchase. A description of the tape and diskettes, and an order form, can be found in the annex to this report."
For the related machine-readable data file, see 57:10809.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20087 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). World population prospects, 1990. Population Studies, No. 120; ST/ESA/SER.A/120, Pub. Order No. E.91.XIII.4. ISBN 91-1-151223-9. 1991. xiii, 607 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the world, regions, and individual countries. They are based on the twelfth round of global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat. The data are presented for each five-year period from 1950 to 2025. Four alternative projections are provided for the period 1985-2025. The data concern population by age and sex and 28 major demographic indicators. A magnetic tape and IBM and Apple Macintosh diskettes containing the data are also available.
For these data in machine-readable form, see 57:10809.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20088 Vincur, Pavol. Demographic trends in Slovakia. [Tendencie demografickeho vyvoja SSR.] Ekonomicky Casopis, Vol. 37, No. 11, 1989. 955-1,007 pp. Bratislava, Czechoslovakia. In Slo.
Recent demographic trends in Slovakia, the eastern part of Czechoslovakia, are reviewed. In addition to current estimates, various alternative population projections are presented up to 2005 for total population by sex and for families and households.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

57:20089 Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T.; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Asia region population projections: 1990-91 edition. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper, No. WPS 599, Feb 1991. lxxxix, 113 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the countries of Asia and Oceania. Asia as defined here excludes the Middle East and parts of Southern Asia. The projections, which are prepared annually, are calculated to the year 2150. "The presentation of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new feature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contraceptive use and on population policy where this is available."
For a previous edition of these projections, see 56:20087.
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20090 Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T.; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Europe, Middle East, and North Africa region population projections: 1990-91 edition. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper, No. WPS 601, Feb 1991. lxxxix, 145 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the countries of Europe (including the USSR), the Middle East (including Afganistan, Iran, and Pakistan), and North Africa. The projections, which are prepared annually, are calculated to the year 2150. "The presentation of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new feature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contraceptive use and on population policy where this is available."
For a previous edition of these projections, see 56:20088.
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20091 Brhlovic, Gerhard. Future changes in the population reproduction potential of Slovakia. [Perspektivne premeny reprodukcie l'udskeho potencialu SSR.] Ekonomicky Casopis, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1990. 17-29 pp. Bratislava, Czechoslovakia. In Slo.
The author examines likely future trends in the population of Slovakia up to the year 2010. He concludes that the population may increase to 5.5 million, whereas the Czech part of the country may experience a decline in population to around 10 million. Long-term changes in the reproduction of the working-age population in Slovakia are analyzed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:20092 Bucher, Hansjorg; Gatzweiler, Hans-Peter; Kunz, Anton. The regional population forecasting model of the BfLR: status and purposes. Appendix: construction and testing of homogeneous migration groups using Bavarian migration data. [Das regionale Bevolkerungsprognosemodell der BfLR: Ausbaustand uad Ausbauabsichten. Anhang: Bildung und Uberprufung homogener Wanderungsgruppen anhand von bayerischen Wanderungsdaten.] In: Regionalprognosen. Methoden und ihre Anwendung. ISBN 3-88838-001-4. 1988. 131-71 pp. Akademie fur Raumforschung und Landesplanung: Hannover, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The regional population forecasting model developed at the Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung (BfLR) in Bonn, Germany, is described. The formal structure and underlying assumptions of the model are outlined, regional population forecasts for West Germany up to the year 2000 are presented, and the model is then critically evaluated. An appendix contains an analysis of interregional migration in Bavaria for the years 1972, 1977, and 1982.
Correspondence: H. Bucher, Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung, Bonn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:20093 De Vita, Carol J. America in the 21st century: a demographic overview. LC 89-169602. May 1989. 28 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report discusses seven major demographic trends that will have a significant impact on the social and economic fabric of [U.S.] life in the century ahead. These include: the aging of the population; changes in our household and family structures; changes in our racial and ethnic composition; changes in our residential patterns; changes in the distribution of income and wealth; changes in our labor force needs; and the changing global demographic picture....[Various sections] take a closer look at these key demographic factors, review past trends, project their likely future courses, and analyze their implications for public policy and private actions in the years ahead."
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, Circulation Department, P.O. Box 96152, Washington, D.C. 20090-6152. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20094 Diamond, Ian; Tesfaghiorghis, Habtemariam; Joshi, Heather. The uses and users of population projections in Australia. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 7, No. 2, Nov 1990. 151-70 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"It is widely recognized that population projections are increasingly used in formulating policy in many public and private sectors. However, little information exists on the nature of the projections or their users. This paper reports the results of a survey conducted to rectify this situation. The results confirm that the applications of projections are very broad and that the prime area of increase has been in small-area projections. At this level many users make their own projections rather than use official projections and the paper reviews the methodology used to make these projections. A number of suggestions are made for improving communication between national and subnational producers and local users." The geographical focus is on Australia.
Correspondence: I. Diamond, University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics, Southampton S09 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20095 Gateva, Nedka. Methodological aspects of the regional analysis of the heterogeneity of the population. [Metodologicheski aspekti na analiza na kheterogennoto povedenie na naselenieto v prostranstvoto.] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1989. 102-11 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author presents a methodology for analyzing regional differences in population growth in Bulgaria. The process is illustrated using projections up to 2050 for seven regions in Bulgaria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20096 Grobbelaar, J. A. Forecasts of the South African population for the period 1985-2020. Business Series, Economic Environment Occasional Paper, No. 17, ISBN 0-7972-0310-9. Nov 1990. iii, 64 pp. University of Stellenbosch, Institute for Futures Research: Stellenbosch, South Africa. In Eng.
Population forecasts are presented for South Africa up to the year 2020. The forecasts were produced by computer simulation using the cohort component method and are presented by sex separately for whites, Coloureds, Asians, and blacks.
Correspondence: University of Stellenbosch, Institute for Futures Research, PO Box 2010, 7535 Bellville, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20097 Haub, Carl. World and United States population prospects. Population and Environment, Vol. 12, No. 3, Spring 1991. 297-310 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population growth rates worldwide and in the United States are discussed. Consideration is given to natural increase; immigration; population projections by region, 1990-2100; and current U.S. age distributions by sex.
Correspondence: C. Haub, Population Reference Bureau, 777 14th Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20098 Keilman, Nico W. Uncertainty in national population forecasting: issues, backgrounds, analyses, recommendations. ISBN 90-265-1141-8. LC 90-45023. 1990. [v], 211 pp. Swets and Zeitlinger: Lisse, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This book includes an investigation into uncertainty in population forecasts produced by statistical agencies. It is argued that the limited predictability of demographic trends is not caused by insufficient knowledge of the population processes involved. Hence more intensified demographic research will not result in satisfactory behavioural theories of individuals, and thus the accuracy of national demographic forecasts will remain limited. Instead, both forecast producers and forecast users should recognize that population trends are inherently uncertain....The limited predictability of population processes is illustrated by an extensive evaluation of the national forecasts produced by the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics (NCBS) since 1950....Confidence intervals around forecast results regarding total population size and a few selected age groups for the NCBS-forecast of 1989 are presented."
Correspondence: Swets and Zeitlinger, Heveweg 347B, 2161 CA Lisse, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20099 Kinsey, Jean. U.S. demographic trends and their relationship to food markets. Staff Papers Series, No. P90-14, Mar 9, 1990. 99 pp. University of Minnesota, Institute of Agriculture, Forestry and Home Economics, Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics: St. Paul, Minnesota. In Eng.
"The direction of [U.S.] demographic trends and their likely influence on food consumption is explored in this paper. Topics covered are population growth and composition, ethnic diversity, household composition of families and nonfamilies, aging, regional, educational and income trends and changes in lifestyle that have come about because of new patterns of labor force participation. The impact that each of these demographic trends has on food consumption and demand is discussed within each section and summarized at the end."
Correspondence: University of Minnesota, Institute of Agriculture, Forestry and Home Economics, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, St. Paul, MN 55108. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20100 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica (Lima, Peru); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Peru: revised population projections, 1980-2025. [Peru: proyecciones revisadas de poblacion, 1980-2025.] Boletin de Analisis Demografico, No. 31, Oct 1990. 72 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Peru by age and sex for the period 1980-2025. The data are from official sources. The projections take into account four alternative hypotheses concerning fertility and two alternatives concerning international migration. Abbreviated life tables for the same period are included in an appendix.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica e Informatica, Avenida 28 de Julio No. 1056, Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20101 Romaniuc, Anatole. Population projection as prediction, simulation and prospective analysis. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 29, 1990. 16-31 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"After discussing the concept of predictability in projection, the paper addresses issues of practical importance to the producers of projections. Theoretical frameworks such as logistic growth, demographic transition and the probabilistic conceptualization of demographic events are considered in terms of their relevance to population forecasting. From a programme management point of view, a challenging question is raised as to how to enhance analytical capability so as to enable formulation of plausible assumptions about the future, while at the same time increasing the operational efficiency of the model in order to minimize costs. Other issues examined include the time horizon, the frequency and the advisability of single versus multiple projection scenarios." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: A. Romaniuc, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A OT6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20102 Smith, Stanley K.; Sincich, Terry. An empirical analysis of the effect of length of forecast horizon on population forecast errors. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 2, May 1991. 261-74 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this article we address these questions using two simple forecasting techniques and population data from 1900 to 1980 for states in the United States. We find that in most instances there is a linear or nearly linear relationship between forecast accuracy and the length of the forecast horizon, but no consistent relationship between bias and the length of the horizon."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 411).
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Department of Economics, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20103 Stephens, Patience W.; Bos, Eduard; Vu, My T.; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Africa region population projections: 1990-91 edition. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper, No. WPS 598, Feb 1991. lxxxix, 133 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the countries of Africa, excluding North Africa. The projections, which are prepared annually, are calculated to the year 2150. "The presentation of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new feature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contraceptive use and on population policy where this is available."
For a previous edition of these projections, see 56:20086.
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20104 Vu, My T.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Latin America and the Caribbean region population projections: 1990-91 edition. Policy, Research, and External Affairs Working Paper, No. WPS 600, Feb 1991. lxxxix, 119 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. The projections, which are prepared annually, are calculated to the year 2150. "The presentation of the data has undergone a major revision in this edition. Included as a new feature are selective demographic indicators for the recent past, as well as information on contraceptive use and on population policy where this is available."
For a previous edition of these projections, see 56:20089.
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

57:20105 Cawley, Mary E. Population change in the Republic of Ireland 1981-1986. Area, Vol. 22, No. 1, Mar 1990. 67-74 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Population patterns in the Republic of Ireland remain anomalous in the context of Western Europe. Marked inter-regional and urban-rural disparities in growth rates persist notwithstanding some evidence of counterurbanisation during the 1970s. Renewed migration overseas is contributing to net population decline while birth rates, albeit declining, remain relatively high."
Correspondence: M. E. Cawley, University College, Department of Geography, Galway, Ireland. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:20106 Horiuchi, Shiro. Measurement and analysis of cohort-size variations. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 30, 1991. 106-24 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article discusses two measures of cohort-size variations: the age-standardized cohort size, and the growth rate of the number of births....The usefulness of the two measures in analysing recent demographic trends is demonstrated....[The author] discusses meanings and usefulness of the ratio of the crude birth rate (CBR)/total fertility rate (TFR) in studying the effects of age structure changes on population growth." The geographical scope is worldwide, with particular attention to China, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Estimates and Projections Section, United Nations Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:20107 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Concise report on the world population situation in 1989: with a special report on population trends and policies in the least developed countries. Population Studies, No. 118; ST/ESA/SER.A/118, Pub. Order No. E.90.XIII.32. ISBN 92-1-151219-0. 1991. ix, 31 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is the seventh in a series of periodic reviews of world and regional developments in the field of population prepared by the Population Division of the Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat....Part one presents a report on population trends and policies in the least developed countries. The second part reports on population trends and policies from global and regional perspectives. In both the first and second parts, the topics covered include population rate of growth and structure, mortality, fertility, internal distribution of population and international migration. Part three of the report describes the leading global social and economic conditions that are the essential context of population trends. The information on which this report is based is drawn from the files and data bases maintained by the Population Division [for the period 1980-1985]...."
Correspondence: U. N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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