Volume 57 - Number 1 - Spring 1991

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

57:10631 Arrau, Patricio. Human capital and endogenous growth in a large-scale life-cycle model. Population, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 342, Dec 1989. 42 pp. World Bank, International Economics Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to build a model where the roles of human capital as an engine of growth and as a component of the life-cycle profile of earnings and labor supply are simultaneously treated. We aim to study in a general equilibrium setting the way the long-run rate of growth is related to structural, policy and demographic parameters." The results indicate that "life-cycle models of growth can yield a negative relation between population growth and income per capita growth, where the direction of causality goes from the exogenous rate of population growth to the endogenous rate of income growth. Tax policy can affect the proportion of human and physical capital in household portfolios. Tax policy that favors human capital over physical capital produces higher growth in per capita income."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10632 Becker, Gary S.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Tamura, Robert F. Human capital, fertility and economic growth. NBER Working Paper, No. 3414, Aug 1990. 32, [10] pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"Our model of growth departs from both the Malthusian and neoclassical approaches by including investments in human capital. We assume, crucially, that rates of return in human capital investments rise, rather than decline, as the stock of human capital increases, until the stock becomes large. This arises because the education sector uses human capital more intensively than either the capital producing sector [or] the goods producing sector. This produces multiple steady states: an undeveloped steady state with little human capital, low rates of return on human capital investments and high fertility, and a developed steady state with higher rates of return, a large, and perhaps, growing stock of human capital and low fertility. Multiple steady states mean that history and luck are critical determinants of a country's growth experience."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10633 Becker, Gary S.; Murphy, Kevin M.; Tamura, Robert. Human capital, fertility, and economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, Pt. 2, Oct 1990. S12-37 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
Some theoretical aspects of the relationships among human capital, fertility, and economic growth are considered. "Our analysis of growth assumes endogenous fertility and a rising rate of return on human capital as the stock of human capital increases. When human capital is abundant, rates of return on human capital investments are high relative to rates of return on children, whereas when human capital is scarce, rates of return on human capital are low relative to those on children. As a result, societies with limited human capital choose large families and invest little in each member; those with abundant human capital do the opposite. This leads to two stable steady states. One has large families and little human capital; the other has small families and perhaps growing human and physical capital."
Correspondence: G. S. Becker, University of Chicago, Department of Economics, 1126 East 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:10634 Carlberg, Michael. The macroeconomics of demographic unemployment. Jahrbucher fur Nationalokonomie und Statistik, Vol. 207, No. 1, Feb 1990. 1-13 pp. Stuttgart, Germany. In Eng. with sum. in Ger.
"What are the macroeconomic consequences of an increase in labour supply? In the short run, unemployment occurs, due to both lack of aggregate demand and capital shortage. Demand-side policy and money wage restraint prove to be ineffective in this situation, owing to capital shortage. On the other hand, a reduction in working hours without wage compensation as well as a policy mix of both demand-side policy and investment policy turn out to be effective. The reduction in working hours lowers individual income and raises individual leisure, as compared to the policy mix."
Correspondence: M. Carlberg, Universitat der Bundeswehr, Department of Economics, Holstenhofweg 85, D-2000 Hamburg 70, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:10635 Simon, Julian L. The unreported revolution in population economics. Public Interest, No. 101, Fall 1990. 89-100 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author suggests that a revolution occurred during the 1980s in scientific thinking about the effect of population growth on economic development, in that "economists stopped asserting that population increases must exhaust natural resources and preclude economic growth." However, the popular media continue to promote the message that population growth is a primary cause of the world's economic and environmental problems. The reasons for this apparent dichotomy are reviewed.
Correspondence: J. L. Simon, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

57:10636 Brown, Lawrence A. Place, migration and development in the third world: an alternative view. Routledge Series on Geography and Environment, ISBN 0-415-05337-4. LC 90-32406. 1991. xx, 252 pp. Routledge: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This study concerns the relationship between migration and development in the developing world, with particular attention to Latin America. It begins with an attempt to redefine the concept of third world development in the context of global economic and political conditions, donor country activities, and government policies. The author applies these concepts to the analysis of aggregate migration flows and development in Costa Rica. Two chapters are included on migration and labor market experiences in Venezuela. The policy aspects of development and regional change are analyzed in two chapters on Ecuador. The need to consider both the characteristics of an individual locale and the generalized implications of the data as a whole is stressed.
Correspondence: Routledge, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10637 Centro Peruano de Investigacion Aplicada (Lima, Peru). The population of Peru in 2050: demography and underdevelopment. [La poblacion del Peru en el ano 2050: demografia y sub desarrollo.] 3rd ed. 1987. 363 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
This is a collection of studies by various authors concerning population growth in Peru and its implications for the country's development. Chapters are included on population projections to the year 2050; population growth and health; spatial distributions and migration; labor force and employment; food production; political aspects of demography; development strategy; family, sex, and population education; population legislation; population policy; human resources; the population dynamics of central Peru; and population trends in southern Peru, 1940-2000.
Correspondence: Centro Peruano de Investigacion Aplicada, Lima, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10638 Ghosh, Bahnisikha. The Indian population problem: a household economics approach. ISBN 81-7036-181-8. 1990. 180 pp. Sage Publications: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The relationship between economic and demographic forces in India is examined from the analytical perspective that individual reproductive behavior is a reflection of underlying parental preferences for children. The author attempts to adapt the household model of fertility analysis to take into account the constraints specific to a low-income country. "With per capita incomes that are generally stable and declining birth rates, it is clear that, belying the Malthusian view, India is now headed towards a population equilibrium that is mainly determined by increases in the value of human time relative to that of materials. An attempt is made here to explore this dynamic development, using the household model and other quantitative approaches." Data are from official sources, including the census, national sample surveys, and the Sample Registration Scheme.
Correspondence: Sage Publications India Pvt, 32 M-Block Market, Greater Kailash 1, New Delhi 100 048, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10639 Kabagarama, Daisy; Mulford, Charles L. The relationship between women's education, nutrition, fertility, GNP per capita and infant mortality: implications for the role of women in development. International Journal of Contemporary Sociology, Vol. 26, No. 3-4, Oct 1989. 189-200 pp. Ghaziabad, India. In Eng.
"Traditional, mainstream development theories have had little to say about factors which could influence the role that women play in development. The present study, through zero-order correlations and multiple regression analysis, examines the relationship between women's education, nutrition, fertility, GNP per capita and infant mortality. Conclusions are based on the 1984 basic indicators data compiled by the World Bank. Results from seventy-two developing countries, ranging from the poorest to middle-income show that women's education and nutrition are positively associated with lower fertility rates, higher GNP per capita, and lower rates of infant mortality. Fertility is positively associated with infant mortality and negatively with GNP per capita."
Correspondence: C. L. Mulford, Iowa State University of Science and Technology, Ames, IA 50011. Location: Pennsylvania State University Library, University Park, PA.

57:10640 Kelley, Allen C.; Nobbe, Charles E. Kenya at the demographic turning point? Hypotheses and a proposed research agenda. World Bank Discussion Paper, No. 107, ISBN 0-8213-1692-3. LC 90-19533. 1990. xvi, 97 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors first describe how Kenya has attempted to develop policies and programs designed to lower the rate of population growth and discuss the country's success in achieving a measure of socioeconomic development despite the programs' relative failure. They then speculate that Kenya's demographic trends may be entering a phase of declining growth rates and consider the reasons for this. "This new phase may well be substantially caused by those very adverse impacts of rapid population growth highlighted by analysts and political leaders in the past. Indeed, 'population pressures' may be naturally, and without fanfare, giving rise to a moderated pace of demographic change by reducing the benefits and raising the costs of children to the household." They conclude with an agenda of needed research in this area.
Correspondence: World Bank, Publications Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10641 Keyfitz, Nathan. Population growth can prevent the development that would slow population growth. In: Preserving the global environment: the challenge of shared leadership, edited by Jessica T. Mathews. ISBN 0-393-02911-5. LC 90-46672. 1991. 39-77 pp. W. W. Norton: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"Our task in this chapter will be to examine whether the circular chain of poverty--many children--poverty can be broken." The author suggests that current opportunities for the solution to such problems may disappear within a generation or two through a combination of factors involving population growth, economic output, urbanization, individual expectations, and debt. The threat of an ecological crisis in the context of population growth is also examined. He concludes by looking at the implications of his analysis for U.S. foreign policy.
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz, IIASA, Population Program, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10642 Li, Shaomin; Chen, Kuanjeng; Tu, Edward J. Population growth and economic development: a critical review. Journal of Population Studies, No. 13, Aug 1990. 107-24 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
The authors examine the relationship between economic development and population growth during the period 1960-1989 in China and Taiwan. They focus on the differences between the two countries.
Correspondence: S. Li, Harvard University, Fairbank Center, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10643 Martin, Susan. Boserup revisited: population and technology in tropical African agriculture, 1900-1940. Journal of Imperial and Commonwealth History, Vol. 16, No. 1, Oct 1987. 109-23 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author examines the validity of the hypothesis of Ester Boserup, which states that population growth has been an essential stimulus to technological change in tropical agriculture, using historical evidence from two densely populated agricultural areas in Africa. These two regions are the former rain forests of southeastern Nigeria and the mountain and lakes area of Rwanda and Burundi; the period considered is 1900-1940. The author concludes that the evidence throws little light on the causes of agricultural change, although it emphasizes certain characteristic African forms of change in labor and land use.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:10644 McNamara, Robert S. Population and Africa's development crisis. Populi, Vol. 17, No. 4, Dec 1990. 35-43 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Africa must grapple with three major trends which have deeply affected its past development and which will largely determine its future prospects: agriculture stagnation, explosive population growth, and degradation of its natural resource base....The urgency of curbing Africa's population explosion is not due to the present size of the population, but rather to the accelerated and increasingly unmanageable rate of increase. In short, population growth is running ahead of economic growth and swamping Africa's development effort."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10645 Schiotz, Arne. Population and the environment. Populi, Vol. 17, No. 4, Dec 1990. 30-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The interrelationship between development trends and population growth in developing countries is discussed in terms of poor and unstable economies, environmental degradation, and increasing population growth.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10646 Seya, P. T. The population challenge in Africa and the prospects for the African Development Bank's intervention. African Development Review/Revue Africaine de Developpement, Vol. 1, No. 2, Dec 1989. 30-51 pp. Abidjan, Ivory Coast. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper advocates that unchecked population growth may lead to serious social and economic burdens in developing countries in general, and particularly in Africa....The theoretical stand advocated here is that population and development are intimately linked and strongly influence each other. Therefore, an attempt to foster economic growth and hopefully improve the standard of living of the people without taking into consideration the population factor would be as illusory as an attempt to control population without involving economic variables." Using this perspective, the author examines prospects for the African Development Bank's intervention in the population sector.
Location: Yale University, Social Science Library, New Haven, CT.

57:10647 Shrestha, Nanda R.; Patterson, John G. Population and poverty in dependent states: Latin America considered. Antipode, Vol. 22, No. 2, Aug 1990. 121-55 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Malthusians maintain that rapid population growth aggravates poverty, while Marxists contend that social formations determine its nature and extent. Each perspective is incomplete, however, since it ignores the insights of the other. Latin American states, characterized by dependent capitalism formations and dominated by ruling elites, are generally incapable of solving the problems of population and poverty. Since population growth under dependent capitalism weakens labor's bargaining position against capital, reduced population growth is emphasized as a labor empowerment strategy the poor can implement on their own to improve their socioeconomic conditions."
Correspondence: N. R. Shrestha, University of Wisconsin, Department of Geography, Whitewater, WI 53190. Location: New York Public Library.

57:10648 Somalia. Ministry of National Planning and Jubba Valley Development. Human Resources Department (Mogadishu, Somalia). Report on the proceedings of a seminar on population development linkages and socio economic planning in Somalia. LC 89-980157. Jun 1988. iii, 191 pp. Mogadishu, Somalia. In Eng.
This publication comes from a seminar on the linkages between population factors and socioeconomic planning and development, which was held in Somalia in March 1988. It contains papers on UNFPA activities in Somalia; the ILO project; population factors and economic development; the Somalia human resources planning model; women in development; work, health, and the vulnerable; urbanization; employment; effects of maternal age, parity, and birth intervals on pregnancy outcomes; and declining school enrollments.
Correspondence: Ministry of National Planning and Jubba Valley Development, Human Resources Department, P.O. Box 1742, Mogadishu, Somalia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:10649 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Socio-economic development and fertility decline: a review of some theoretical approaches. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/102, 1990. vi, 29 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This is a review of some of the major theoretical approaches that link socioeconomic development with fertility decline. The discussion includes the theory of demographic transition, microeconomic theories of fertility, theories concerning styles of development affecting fertility decline, and the wealth flows theory. The focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

57:10650 Auerbach, Alan; Kotlikoff, Laurence J. Tax aspects of policy towards aging populations: Canada and the United States. NBER Working Paper, No. 3405, Jul 1990. 31 pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
A simulation model is used to analyze and compare the impact on savings and taxation of future demographic trends, particularly demographic aging, in the United States and Canada. "The simulations indicate that demographics are likely to have significant effects on rates of saving and taxation in both the U.S. and Canada. However, the more abrupt demographic transition in Canada combined with the projected maturation of [the] Canadian social security system leads to a more severe predicted long term decline in Canadian saving rates. Despite the predicted lower saving rates, capital deepening is likely to occur in both countries, and the associated increase in real wages is likely to more than offset projected higher tax rates, leaving the growth-adjusted welfare of future generations higher than that of current generations."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10651 Auerbach, Alan J.; Kotlikoff, Laurence J. Demographics, fiscal policy, and U.S. saving in the 1980s and beyond. NBER Working Paper, No. 3150, Oct 1989. 43 pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on U.S. saving, demographics, and fiscal policy. We use data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys of the 1980s to consider the effect of demographic change on past and future U.S. saving rates. Our findings indicate that demographic change may significantly alter the U.S. rate of national saving and current account position over the next 50 years. The gradual aging of the population is predicted to lead to higher saving rates over the next three decades with decline in the rate of saving thereafter. Associated with these predicted saving rate changes is a predicted improvement in the U.S. current account position [in] the 1990s, with a very gradual deterioration during the subsequent decades."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10652 Auerbach, Alan J.; Cai, Jinyong; Kotlikoff, Laurence J. U.S. demographics and saving: predictions of three saving models. NBER Working Paper, No. 3404, Jul 1990. 33 pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030."
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10653 Crone, Theodore M. The aging of America: impacts on the marketplace and workplace. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, May-Jun 1990. 3-13 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
The author reviews short-term population projections for the United States up to the year 2000 and attempts to assess their implications for business and the labor force, with particular reference to the region that consists of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. The author notes that this region will be particularly affected by the aging of the labor force and the decline in fertility that occurred in the 1970s, which will result in a shrinkage in the young working-age population.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:10654 Currie, David; Holly, Sean; Scott, Andrew. Savings, demography and interest rates. CEF Discussion Paper, No. 01-89, Mar 1989. 35 pp. London Business School, Centre for Economic Forecasting: London, England. In Eng.
The causes of the decline in the savings ratio that has occurred in the United Kingdom since 1985 are examined. "In this paper we offer a new consumption function that helps to explain the decline in savings. We provide evidence that a combination of lower interest rates, a booming housing market, which has substantial effects on people's wealth, and the decline in the proportion of the population in the 45 to 64 age group, can help to explain what has been happening to savings during the 1980's."
Correspondence: London Business School, Centre for Economic Forecasting, Sussex Place, Regents Park, London MW1 4SA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10655 de Jouvenel, Hugues. Europe's ageing population: trends and challenges to 2025. 1989. 54 pp. Butterworths: Guildford, England. In Eng.
"This report examines the trends of demographic ageing in Europe up to 2025. By that date one European in four could be aged 65 or over. With trends continuing towards the contraction of working life, severe imbalances may occur in individual life cycles, in the structure of the workforce, and in socioeconomic provision for an ageing population. The report further considers the potential impacts of these emerging imbalances on living conditions, consumption patterns, and socio-medical/health care provision for the old. Finally, a range of responses are outlined to the challenges of possible intergenerational conflict surrounding the nexus of issues related to demographic ageing."
For the French version of this report, published in 1989, see 55:40583.
Correspondence: Butterworth Scientific, P.O. Box 63, Westbury House, Bury Street, Guildford GU2 5BH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:10656 Fortin, Pierre. The impact of the demographic crunch on standards of living over the long term. [L'impact du choc demographique sur le niveau de vie a long terme.] Actualite Economique, Vol. 65, No. 3, Sep 1989. 364-95 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The long-term implications of the radical decline in fertility that has occurred in all modern industrial societies are analyzed, with particular reference to Canada. "On first approximation, calculations based on the Solow growth model predict a decline in the time path of aggregate consumption per adult that could reach 5 or 6 per cent in Canada in 2011-2016, but would become smaller thereafter. The demographic shock would therefore not generate economic tragedy. This result is the outcome of the opposite effects on aggregate consumption of the declining population growth rate and of the rising dependency ratio."
Correspondence: P. Fortin, Universite du Quebec, Departement de Sciences Economiques, CP 8888 Succursale, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3P8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:10657 Horioka, Charles Y. Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance. ISER Discussion Paper, No. 239, Dec 1990. 45 pp. Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research [ISER]: Osaka, Japan. In Eng.
The future of Japan's saving rate is discussed, with a focus on the effect of the population's age structure. The author examines the impact of this factor through projections to the year 2020 based on regression analysis and other methods. It is predicted that savings will decline due to population aging.
Correspondence: Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, 6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10658 Horioka, Charles Y. The importance of life cycle saving in Japan: a novel estimation method. ISER Discussion Paper, No. 225, Aug 1990. 56 pp. Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research [ISER]: Osaka, Japan. In Eng.
"In this paper, I attempt to assess the applicability of the life cycle hypothesis and the importance of life cycle saving [in preparation for retirement] in the case of Japan. Survey data suggest that the basic premise of the life cycle hypothesis is valid in the case of Japan, and my calculations indicate that (net) life cycle saving is a large but not dominant component of household saving....However, the amount of life cycle saving can be expected to decline sharply as the population ages."
Correspondence: Osaka University; Institute of Social and Economic Research, 6-1 Mihogaoka, Ibaraki, Osaka 567, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10659 Krishnan, Parameswara; Das, Manoshi. Dependency ratios: conventional and real. Population Research Laboratory Research Discussion Paper, No. 68, Jun 1990. 13 pp. University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
"The conventional notion of dependency is refined and a concept of 'real dependency' proposed....An attempt is made here to evaluate this concept and see the extent to which the conventional measure satisfies, or fails to satisfy what is expected of it....Dependency rates for Canada are computed for 1976, 1981, and 1986 from the census data."
Correspondence: University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10660 Mankiw, N. Gregory; Weil, David N. The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 19, No. 2, May 1989. 235-58 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper examines the impact of major demographic changes on the housing market in the United States. The entry of the Baby Boom generation into its house-buying years is found to be the major cause of the increase in real housing prices in the 1970s. Since the Baby Bust generation is now entering its house-buying years, housing demand will grow more slowly in the 1990s than in any time in the past forty years. If the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues into the future, real housing prices will fall substantially over the next two decades."
Correspondence: N. G. Mankiw, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:10661 van Imhoff, Evert. The economic consequences of demographic change. In: Emerging issues in demographic research, edited by Cornelius A. Hazeu and Gerard A. B. Frinking. 1990. 219-31 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: New York, New York/Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The author discusses the economic consequences of demographic change. "The objects studied by population economics can roughly be divided into two categories....[The focus of this paper is on] the second category, which I usually refer to as 'demographic economics.' [It] takes the demographic phenomena as such as given, and studies its effects on economic variables. That is, it studies the way in which the demographic situation affects the demand for and supply of scarce resources, and the way in which these changes in demand and supply in their turn affect human behaviour and social welfare." The geographical focus is on the Netherlands. A comment is included by Pierre Pestieau (pp. 229-31).
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

57:10662 Ahmad, Aijazuddin; Clarke, John I.; Shrestha, Chandra B.; Trilsbach, A. Mountain population pressure. ISBN 0-7069-4944-7. LC 90-903767. 1990. xvii, 316 pp. Vikas Publishing: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This volume contains a selection of papers presented at a symposium on mountain population pressure, held in Kathmandu, Nepal, in 1983, under the auspices of the Commission on Population Geography of the International Geographical Union. The focus is on mountain regions in developing countries, particularly the Himalayas and Nepal. The 17 papers are grouped under four subject headings: population pressure and its consequences, population dynamics, economic development and its impact, and policy issues.
Correspondence: Vikas Publishing House, 5 Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002, India. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

57:10663 Eder, James F. Deforestation and detribalization in the Philippines: the Palawan case. Population and Environment, Vol. 12, No. 2, Winter 1990. 99-115 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Palawan Island contains the largest remaining expanse of unbroken forest cover in the Philippines. The forest is currently threatened by agricultural colonization, as numerous migrants from throughout the Philippines settle annually in the island's forested uplands. Further, Palawan is being heavily logged....This paper examines how land alienation and other forms of socioeconomic marginalization attending these pressures have undermined the well-being of Palawan's indigenous tribal peoples. It also explains how lack of secure tenure and failure to achieve popular participation so distort the gap between the ideal and the practice of agroforestry programs aimed at these peoples that such programs not only fail to ameliorate the ecological situation but further undermine tribal well being."
Correspondence: J. F. Eder, Arizona State University, Department of Anthropology, Tempe, AZ 85287. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10664 Factoran, Fulgencio S. Population, resources and the future of the Philippines. Populi, Vol. 17, No. 4, Dec 1990. 20-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses Philippine deforestation and its effect on human welfare. "The inescapable lesson of the forest metaphor is that we must alter the existing political economy of natural resources if we are to achieve the seemingly unattainable goals of economic progress, stable population growth and balanced ecology." An argument is presented for the revival of a strong national family planning program.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10665 Feeny, David; Berkes, Fikret; McCay, Bonnie J.; Acheson, James M. The tragedy of the commons: twenty-two years later. Human Ecology, Vol. 18, No. 1, Mar 1990. 1-19 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors take up the hypothesis originally proposed by Garrett Hardin that resources held in common, such as oceans, rivers, air, and parklands, are bound to be subject to massive degradation. Specifically, they "examine the accumulated evidence pertaining to common-property resource management and provide a critique of the conventional theory expounded by Hardin." They conclude that recent evidence suggests that users of such resources are able to restrict access to them and establish rules among themselves for their sustainable use.
Correspondence: D. Feeny, McMaster University, Department of Economics, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

57:10666 Allak, Mohammed H. The composition and growth of the labor force in Kuwait. Pub. Order No. DA9004755. 1989. 184 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Economic and development trends are discussed as they affect the composition of the labor force in Kuwait. Human resources, female labor force participation, labor migration to Kuwait, changes in educational trends, and the evolving occupational structure during the last three decades are considered.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 50(9).

57:10667 Baker, Susan G. Many rivers to cross: Mexican immigrants, women workers, and the structure of labor markets in the urban Southwest. Pub. Order No. DA8920655. 1989. 163 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This research identifies the work patterns of the increasingly active and diverse female labor force in the urban Southwest [United States], then examines [the] impact of Mexican immigration, documented and undocumented, on the earnings and employment of non-Hispanic white, black and Chicana women in the region....The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 is then evaluated in the context of [the] findings."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Texas at Austin.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 50(4).

57:10668 Desai, Sonalde; Michael, Robert T.; Chase-Lansdale, P. Lindsay. The home environment: a mechanism through which maternal employment affects child development. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 20, 1990. 37 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper argues that seeking a simple, universal effect of maternal employment on the welfare of very young children is not a fruitful strategy. Instead, it suggests that: (1) maternal employment affects children through a variety of mechanisms, some positive and others negative, and (2) the consequences of maternal employment depend on the family's socioeconomic circumstances and the social context. Using data for pre-school aged children in the United States, the paper examines the impact of maternal employment on children's verbal abilities in different family economic contexts."
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10669 El Biblawi, Hayam. Unemployment and the loss of economically active years of life in Egypt. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1989. 1990. 373-418 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The aim of the present paper...is to study the impact of unemployment on the expectation of economically active life and to measure the waste of economically active years due to the unemployment rates prevailing among different age groups of [the] labour force....To achieve its objective the study has to construct the tables of economically active life and employment life which permit...comparisons of the length and pattern of total expectation of life, economically active life and employment life (work life) at different times and among different age groups....The present study is based on the data on economic activity of [the male] population available in the 1976 and 1986 population censuses of Egypt."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10670 El Yazidi, El Hassan. Manpower requirements in urban Morocco, 1971-1984. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1989. 1990. 609-45 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the estimation of labour requirements in urban Morocco for the year 1984 based on the study of the prevailing economic development status. To this end, a discussion of factors determining labour demand is attempted. The paper...[includes] an assessment of the urban employment situation by relating the estimated labour requirements to the actual labour supply."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10671 Guhl, Nora L. Children's patterns of work in Egypt: evidence from the Literacy and Numeracy Retention Study. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1989. 1990. 349-71 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The specific purpose of this study is to describe the characteristics of children's work in Egypt. Several issues will be addressed: (1) What kinds of work do children perform in the household and in the labor market? (2) How much time do they devote to work in the household and in the labor market? (3) How much do they earn? (4) What kind of skills do they use on their jobs?...The data for this study come from the [1980] Literacy and Numeracy Retention Study (LRNS) conducted by the World Bank and the Egyptian Ministry of Education."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10672 Hsieh, Yeu-sheng. The effect of age-sex composition change in the labor force on inadequate labor utilization in Taiwan. Journal of Population Studies, No. 13, Aug 1990. 59-82 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
The author examines changes in labor force participation resulting from variations in the age and sex distribution of the population of Taiwan during 1980-1988. The focus is on the under-utilization of the labor force.
Correspondence: Y.-s. Hsieh, National Taiwan University, Department of Agricultural Extension, 1 Roosevelt Road IV, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10673 Kimenyi, Mwangi S. Immigration and black-white unemployment rates in the United States. Konjunkturpolitik, Vol. 35, No. 5, 1989. 297-309 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The possible impact of immigration on the widening gap in unemployment rates for black and white teenagers in the United States is examined. The author concludes that although immigration has been good for the long-run economic growth of the United States as a whole, "to the extent that immigrants are better substitutes for black youth than they are for white youth, short term displacement effects are more pronounced among the blacks. This proposition is supported by data for the period 1951-1980."
Correspondence: M. S. Kimenyi, University of Mississippi, University City, MS 38677. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10674 Mayaka, William C. Some current aspects of the Zambian labour force (1986). In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1989. 1990. 805-47 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Characteristics of the labor force in Zambia are discussed, including levels of participation, growth, sex and age composition, educational status, unemployment, and underemployment. Data are from the 1986 Labour Force Survey.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10675 Owen, John D. Labor supply over the life cycle: the long-term forecasting problem. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 5, No. 2, 1989. 249-57 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Problems concerning the development of long-term forecasts of age variations in the labor supply are discussed. The author examines problems related to using the life cycle theory of labor supply to analyze such variations. An alternative theory, which suggests that the labor supply of younger and older groups is influenced by subsidies from prime-aged groups, is proposed and tested using U.S. data for the last 60 years.
Correspondence: J. D. Owen, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10676 Parliament, Jo-Anne B. Labour force trends: two decades in review. Canadian Social Trends, No. 18, Autumn 1990. 16-9 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng.
Labor force trends in Canada from 1969 to 1989 are reviewed. The author suggests that some basic trends will continue into the 1990s, such as increased aging, a growth in the labor force due to increasing participation by women, and a growth in the service sector.
Correspondence: J.-A. B. Parliament, Canadian Social Trends, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

57:10677 Podhisita, Chai; Havanon, Napaporn; Knodel, John; Sittitrai, Werasit. Women's work and family size in rural Thailand. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2, Jun 1990. 31-52 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"The effect of child-bearing and family size on women's work is examined for two rural areas in Thailand based on a combination of quantitative data collected in a survey and qualitative data yielded by focus group discussions. Although reproduction does not prevent rural Thai women from working, it does have some impact on women's work by temporarily interrupting economic activity following the birth of a child and by young children interfering with work after economic activity is resumed. Given that these periods of interruption and interference cumulate with each birth, it can also be said that family size has impact."
Correspondence: C. Podhisita, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, 2 Prannock Road, Bangkok 10700, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10678 Psacharopoulos, George; Tzannatos, Zafiris. Female labor force participation: an international perspective. World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 4, No. 2, Jul 1989. 187-201 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In most economies women are less attached than men to the labor force. This has important implications for development. This article examines definitions and theories of female labor supply and relates them to statistical evidence from 136 countries in the early 1980s. The findings support the view that, during the transformation from an agrarian subsistence economy, the participation of women in the labor force initially decreases and picks up later after a critical level of development has been achieved. Education is seen as a potential booster of the officially recorded female labor supply in developing countries."
Location: Princeton University Library (UN).

57:10679 Steahr, Thomas E. Local labor market areas in New England. Jun 1990. iii, 85 pp. Pennsylvania State University, Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"It is a basic purpose of this research to define and identify the most relevant geographic areas containing local labor markets that affect economic growth and change [in the New England region of the United States]." These local labor markets are defined in terms of towns, or 1,508 minor civil divisions. The analysis also takes into account the commuting links among towns.
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development, University Park, PA 16802.

57:10680 Zayyan, Ezzat S. N. Unemployment problem in Egypt: non-demographic causes. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1989. 1990. 419-42 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author examines the economic causes of unemployment in Egypt for the period 1975-1988. Findings reveal that "unemployment is a widespread problem: for both sexes and in rural as well as urban areas....The unemployment problem is not only due to the high rate of population growth and rapid increase in the number of new entrants to the labour market, but it is also a result of the irrational economic behaviour that prevailed during the study period."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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