57:10068 Arkadiev,
Dimitar. Changes in the population and the number of
households (families) in Bulgarian territories. [Izmeneniya v
broya na naselenieto i na domakinstvata (semeistvata) po Balgarskite
zemi.] Naselenie, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1988. 41-57 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In
Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
In this study, the author attempts to
estimate the population and total number of households within the
present boundaries of Bulgaria from prehistoric times up to 1878. Data
are from a variety of archaeological, literary, and other
sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10069 Botev,
Nikolai. What do age-specific growth rates reveal?
[Za kakvo "razkazvat" povazrastovite koefitsienti na prirast.]
Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1989. 69-85 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.
"This paper summarizes a generalization of the
stable population theory pioneered by S. H. Preston and A. J. Coale,
and elaborates on a particular case of this generalization suggested by
Horiuchi and Preston. Based on the properties of age-specific growth
rates to reflect in an indirect manner past population dynamics, an
attempt is made to shed light on some aspects of the population history
of Bulgaria, which until now have been 'hidden' due to the lack, or the
unreliability of the statistical data."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:10070 Drouin,
Francois. The urban population of Quebec, 1795-1971:
origin and other census characteristics. [La population urbaine de
Quebec, 1975-1971. Origines et autres caracteristiques de
recensement.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 19, No. 1, Spring
1990. 95-112 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper presents the first results of a comprehensive study
devoted to the history of the population of the city and the region of
Quebec, between 1795 and 1971. Data on origin, place of birth,
religion and language have been used in order to analyse the degree of
homogeneity of the population. In 1971, the Quebec region [contained]
almost exclusively persons from French-Canadian origin, born in the
province of Quebec, baptized in the catholic church, and speaking
French. This image of [a] highly homogeneous population should however
be retouched, particularly with regard to the genetical contribution of
British and especially Irish immigrants."
Correspondence:
F. Drouin, Universite Laval, Departement d'Histoire, Cite
Universitaire, Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10071 Klein,
Ira. Population growth and mortality in British India.
Part II: the demographic revolution. Indian Economic and Social
History Review, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 33-63 pp. New Delhi,
India. In Eng.
The author continues to examine the causes of the
rapid growth of population that occurred in India following World War
I. In this second part of a two-part article, he looks at the causes
of the mortality decline that occurred in the interwar period,
particularly why mortality declined so rapidly without significant
evidence of material advances among the population as a whole. The
causes of the decline are identified as a reduction in mortality from
diseases, such as the plague, and the expansion of a general biological
immunization in the population, rather than as the development of
successful social policies.
For Part 1, published in 1989, see
elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: I. Klein,
American University, Department of History, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue
NW, Washington, D.C. 20016. Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
57:10072 Klein,
Ira. Population growth and mortality. Part I: the
climacteric of death. Indian Economic and Social History Review,
Vol. 26, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1989. 387-403 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author examines the causes of the rapid growth in population
that occurred in India following World War I. His primary thesis is
that the decline in mortality that led to a population explosion was
not caused by better material or medical conditions; it primarily
reflects involuntary causes, particularly the impact on human
immunities of changes in disease ecology. In this first part, the
author focuses on mortality in the 50-year period from 1871-1921. He
concludes that "death-rates remained high for the fifty years,
1872-1921, for 'traditional' reasons of ill-health, poverty,
malnutrition, insanitation, ineffective medical care, scarcity and
famine--immemorial facets of the human condition in India. But
death-rates increased because changes in disease ecology maximised
exposure to new disease microbes among a vulnerable, poorly immune
population."
Correspondence: I. Klein, American University,
Department of History, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
20016. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
57:10073 Konar,
Dhirendra N.; Konar, Birendra N. A profile of India's
demographic pattern since 1891. Economic Affairs, Vol. 34, No. 4,
Oct-Dec 1989. 249-56 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
The authors
analyze population growth and the components of growth in India since
1891.
Correspondence: D. N. Konar, Kalyani University,
Department of Commerce, Kalyani, India. Location: World Bank,
Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.
57:10074 McCarthy,
Justin. The population of Palestine: population history
and statistics of the late Ottoman period and the mandate.
Institute for Palestine Studies Series, ISBN 0-231-07110-8. LC 90-1641.
1990. [xxvii], 242 pp. Columbia University Press: New York, New
York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This publication contains a selection
of demographic data on the population of Palestine during the late
Ottoman period (primarily the nineteenth century) and the period of the
British mandate (the inter-war period). The available data sources are
first described. The statistical data are then presented, with
separate sections on Ottoman statistics; European statistics of the
Ottoman period; mandate statistics on population, age distribution,
fertility, mortality, nuptiality, rural and urban population and
population density, and migration; and Zionist
statistics.
Correspondence: Columbia University Press, 562
West 113th Street, New York, NY 10025. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:10075 Tsubouchi,
Yoshihiro. A re-examination of Raffles's statistics on the
population of Java in the early nineteenth century. Southeast
Asian Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2, Sep 1990. 206-21 pp. Kyoto, Japan. In
Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes the accuracy of the
population data published by Sir Thomas Raffles concerning early
nineteenth-century Java, Indonesia. Specific topics considered include
"a. errors in computation, b. distribution of household size by
sub-district, c. distribution of sex-ratio by sub-district, d.
variation of age-structure by sub-district, [and] e. problems of
Chinese population. Special attention was given to the consistency of
the definition of categories and the distribution patterns of the
reported figures."
Correspondence: Y. Tsubouchi, Kyoto
University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Shimoadachi-cho 46,
Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606, Japan. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:10076 Begum,
Sharifa. Population birth, death and growth rate in
Bangladesh: census estimates. Bangladesh Development Studies,
Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1990. 51-75 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"The
present estimates of the population vital rates [for Bangladesh] for
various intercensal periods during 1951-81 with the help of census data
and [the] South Asian Pattern of Model Life Table suggest that the
previous estimates for the same [period] using the same data but [the]
West Model Life Table were overestimates. The present estimates
suggest that the population birth and death rates during 1951-61 and
1961-74 periods were respectively 43 and 18 and 45 and 16 instead of 49
and 24 and 47 and 18 estimated earlier. The present estimates further
suggest that these vital rates during [the] 1974-81 period were 44 and
15. The population growth rates suggested by the study during 1951-61
is 2.5 per cent and during 1961-81 is 2.9 per cent. The present study
therefore suggests that Bangladesh during the past two decades of l960s
and l970s has experienced little demographic
change."
Correspondence: S. Begum, Bangladesh Institute of
Development Studies, E-17 Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207,
Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
57:10077 Bloch,
Dieter. Soviet Union--number of inhabitants of
administrative units and large cities.
[Sowjetunion--Einwohnerzahlen der Verwaltungseinheiten und
Grossstadte.] Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, Vol. 134, No. 1,
1990. 49-52 pp. Gotha, German Democratic Republic. In Ger.
The
paper presents population statistics, taken from census results
published in Pravda, of various administrative areas and large cities
in the USSR as of January 12, 1989. Data are included on population
size, population growth since 1979, proportion of the population living
in urban areas, and population density.
Correspondence: D.
Bloch, VEB Hermann Haack, Geographisch-Kartographische Anstalt, Gotha,
Germany. Location: New York Public Library.
57:10078 Dominican
Republic. Oficina Nacional de Planificacion [ONAPLAN] (Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic); Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo
[IEPD] (Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic); United Nations. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica).
Dominican Republic: population estimates and projections by
planning regions and subregions, by calendar year, sex, and age.
1980-2000. [Republica Dominicana: estimaciones y proyecciones de
poblacion por regiones y subregiones de planificacion, segun anos
calendario, sexo y edad. 1980-2000.] Fasciculo F./REPDOM.2, Pub. Order
No. LC/DEM/CR/R.6. ISBN 9977-58-127-4. Jul 1989. 93 pp. U.N. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections from 1980 to 2000 are provided
for the Dominican Republic by year, age, and sex, for regions and for
subregions. An introductory chapter analyzes trends in the major
demographic indicators over the period 1970-1980 and discusses the
assumptions on which the estimates and projections are
based.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia, Av. 6a y Calle 19, Edificio Unibanco, Apartado 5249, San
Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:10079 Portugal.
Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Gabinete de Estudos
Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident
population as at December 31, 1989, by sex and age and by district and
autonomous region. [Estimativas de populacao residente em
31.XII.1989 segundo o sexo e por idades nos distritos e regioes
autonomas.] Serie Estimativas Provisorias, No. 11, Oct 1990. [53] pp.
Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are
presented for Portugal for 1989 by sex and age and by district and
autonomous region.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de
Estatistica, Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos, Avenida Antonio Jose de
Almeida, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:10080 Portugal.
Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Gabinete de Estudos
Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident
population as at December 31, 1989, by sex for regions.
[Estimativas de populacao residente em 31.XII.1989 segundo o sexo nos
concelhos.] Serie Estimativas Provisorias, No. 12, Nov 1990. [22] pp.
Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are
presented for Portugal for 1989 by sex and by autonomous region,
district, and minor civil division.
Correspondence:
Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos,
Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10081 Uruguay.
Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay); United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Uruguay: estimates and projections of the urban
and rural population by sex and age, 1975-2025. [Uruguay:
estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion urbana y rural por sexo y
edad, 1975-2025.] 1989. 97 pp. Montevideo, Uruguay. In Eng.
Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population of
Uruguay are presented for the period 1985-2025. Details of the
methodology used are provided.
Correspondence: Direccion
General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.
57:10082 Cieslak,
Maria; Dittmann, Pawel; Kuropka, Ireneusz; Oktabska, Ewa; Pawlukowicz,
Roman; Radzikowska, Barbara. Polish demographic
trends--analysis and forecasts. [Rozwoj demograficzny
Polski--analiza i prognozowanie.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 319,
1990. 178 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut
Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This is a collection of separate studies on aspects of projecting
future demographic trends in Poland. The first chapter, by Maria
Cieslak, examines the concepts and methods available for measuring
demographic trends. The second chapter, by Ireneusz Kuropka and Barbara
Radzikowska, is concerned with international comparisons of demographic
trends. The third chapter, by Ewa Oktabska, introduces the concepts
involved in measuring the quality of life. The fourth chapter, by
Kuropka and Radzikowska, considers econometric models of the components
of demographic change. The fifth chapter, by Pawel Dittmann and
Kuropka, forecasts population trends in Poland up to the year 2000.
The sixth and final chapter, by Roman Pawlukowicz, looks at the
applicability of probability models to the forecasting of fertility
distributions among hypothetical female cohorts in Poland up to
2000.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i
Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162,
02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:10083 de Beer,
J. Population forecasts 1990: higher population growth
caused by more immigration. [Bevolkingsprognose 1990: hogere
bevolkingsgroei door meer immigratie.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 38, No. 12, Dec 1990. 20-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population trends in the Netherlands are
forecast for the next 30 years and determinants of projected population
growth are discussed. The major cause of population increase is
considered to be international migration.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10084 Granados,
Maria del P. Methods of subnational population
projection. [Metodos para proyecciones subnacionales de
poblacion.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 42, Nov 1989. 313 pp. Departamento
Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica [DANE]: Bogota, Colombia; U.N.
Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This volume contains papers from a 1988 international seminar on
subnational population projection in Latin America held in Girardot,
Colombia. Topics covered include population projections and
socioeconomic structure; development planning; use of the components
method for national and small-area projections; the cohort relation
method; evaluation of projection techniques for small areas; and use of
the PRODEM system developed by CELADE for processing population
projections. Papers are also included on a simplified multiregional
model and other regional projection techniques, illustrated with data
for Brazil and Chile; provincial projections for Argentina by sex and
age, 1970-1990; estimates and projections for Bolivia by department,
sex, and age for urban and rural areas, 1970-2000; and systems to
elaborate subnational projections for intermediate and small areas by
sex and age group.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91,
Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10085 Hecht,
Jacqueline. The future was their business: some examples
of demographic projections in the eighteenth century. [L'avenir
etait leur affaire: de quelques essais de prevision demographique au
XVIIIeme siecle.] European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de
Demographie, Vol. 6, No. 3, Sep 1990. 285-322 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses
European population projections made in the eighteenth century and the
cultural, ideological, and scientific philosophies that influenced
them.
Correspondence: J. Hecht, Institut National d'Etudes
Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10086 Inoue,
Shunichi; Wils, Anne B. United Nations population
projections. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North
America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991.
487-501 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England;
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The purpose of this chapter is to give
an overview of the population projections prepared and published by the
United Nations. In the first section, we discuss various types of
projections. In the second section, we explore the methods and
components used to make projections and efforts to improve our
knowledge of influences on the factors we are trying to project. The
third section focuses specifically on recent U.N. population
projections and the ingredients that went into
them."
Correspondence: S. Inoue, U.N. Population Division,
United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
57:10087 Keilman,
Nico. National population projection methods in developed
countries. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North
America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991.
465-86 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England;
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This chapter discusses methodological
issues of current national population projections in the 31 developed
countries that participated in a survey in early 1988. The aim of this
survey was to collect information on methodological aspects of national
population projections in industrialized countries....The international
comparison in this chapter includes the demographic characteristics of
future populations; the various approaches used to extrapolate
fertility, mortality, and external migration...; the time horizon of
the projection results; and a discussion of the projection model's
equations."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, NL-2502 AR The
Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
57:10088 Keyfitz,
Nathan. On future mortality. IIASA Working Paper, No.
WP-89-59, Aug 1989. iii, 16, [2] pp. International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"Since the future population of any area depends on the three
components (future births, deaths, and migration) in a simple
accounting identity, its forecasting comes down to forecasting these
components. The present paper looks into the mortality component,
examining past mortality on the basis of Canadian data for the period
1921 to 1981. The examination shows that which past interval one takes
as the indication of the pace of future population improvement is the
most important element of the forecast of
mortality."
Correspondence: International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10089 Lutz,
Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Wils, Anne B.; Buttner, Thomas; Heilig,
Gerhard. Alternative demographic scenarios for Europe and
North America. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North
America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991.
523-60 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England;
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
The authors present "actual alternative
projections...calculated for three regions of the industrialized
world--namely, Western Europe, Eastern Europe (including the European
parts of the USSR), and North America. The consequences of alternative
assumptions on future mortality, fertility, and migration that are
mostly based on alternative suggestions directly or implicitly made by
the authors in this volume are compared with each other and with U.N.
projections as a point of reference. Generally, we find that the range
of possible population futures up to the year 2050 is surprisingly
large even when comparing it to the range of other areas with much
greater uncertainties, such as economic
trends."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Program, A-2361 Laxenburg,
Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10090 Lutz,
Wolfgang. Future demographic trends in Europe and North
America: what can we assume today? Studies in Population, ISBN
0-12-460445-5. 1991. xx, 585 pp. Academic Press: San Diego,
California/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The present volume
of papers, partly arising out of a conference sponsored by IIASA in
October 1988, is an attempt to...[forecast demographic trends. The
authors] examine in turn the three inputs to population
projections--longevity, reproduction, and migration--making use of
trends, of breakdowns (deaths by cause, births by parity, etc.) and of
professional opinion in medicine and other relevant fields." The
geographical focus is on North America and Europe.
Selected items
will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population
Index.
Correspondence: Academic Press, 24-28 Oval Road,
London NW1 7DX, England. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:10091 Morrison,
Peter A. Pictures of the future--childhood, the workplace,
our communities. Rand Paper, No. P-7656, Jul 1990. iii, 14 pp.
Rand Corporation: Santa Monica, California. In Eng.
The focus of
this paper is on future demographic change in the United States and the
effects on the state of childhood, the workplace, and communities. The
author discusses the demographic impact of economic inequality among
children, specifically, inadequate prenatal care and child care needs;
the changing age structure as it affects the workplace; and the
increasing diversity of the racial and ethnic makeup of U.S.
communities.
Correspondence: Rand Corporation, 1700 Main
Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90406-2138. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10092 Population
Reference Bureau. Innovative Materials for Population Action [IMPACT]
(Washington, D.C.). African population images. 1990.
24 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population dynamics of Africa are
projected for the period 1950-2025. Color computer graphics are
utilized to represent population increase, population and urban growth
for the continent and individual countries, age distribution,
differential fertility levels, and contraceptive use. Data are from
the United Nations and from selected national demographic and health
surveys.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau,
Innovative Materials for Population Action, 777 14th Street NW, Suite
800, Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:10093 Prusa,
Ladislav. Projection of changes in the number of full
old-age pensions. [Prognoza vyvoje poctu plnych starobnich
duchodu.] Demografie, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1990. 337-42 pp. Prague,
Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The Czechoslovak
population is projected by sex and age cohort to the year 2010 for the
purpose of determining old-age pension needs. Data are from 1987 life
tables.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10094 Rogers,
Andrei; Woodward, Jennifer A. Using transparent
multiregional demographic models to assess the recent U.S. Bureau of
the Census state projections. Population Program Working Paper,
No. WP-90-1, Feb 1990. 30, [13] pp. University of Colorado, Institute
of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"In this paper we have combined multistate (multiregional)
mathematical demography with parameterized model schedules to develop a
modeling procedure that can be used to produce conceptually simple and
operationally transparent population projections....We illustrate how
the [U.S.] Census Bureau's projections of Florida's and Colorado's
population can be usefully assessed and interpreted by the construction
of a transparent multiregional model that mimics the procedures used by
the Bureau's model. We then also offer examples of multiregional
output measures that the Bureau should produce to ease the assessment
problem for the user. And, finally, we introduce a parameterized model
schedule perspective that can be adopted to increase the transparency
of the Bureau's input data and
assumptions."
Correspondence: University of Colorado,
Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO
80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10095 Singh,
Mohan. Population projections for India: 1981-2016.
Asian Profile, Vol. 17, No. 6, Dec 1989. 533-52 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
Revised population projections for India up to the year 2016 are
presented. The projections were made using the FIVFIV package
developed by F. C. Shorter applied to 1981 census data. "The basic
objectives of this paper are to review the previous population
projections, to frame base-line assumptions, and, finally, to discuss
the findings of these projections in the light of national population
policy and planning. In addition, size of rural and urban population
is projected for each tenth year during the projection period. The
doubling time of the population is also calculated with a view to
finding out the possibility for stabilization of population in the
future."
Correspondence: M. Singh, Australian National
University, National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra ACT 2601,
Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).
57:10096 United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Demographic elements for the educational sector:
Latin America, school-age population, single ages and calendar years,
1980-2000. [Insumos demograficos para el sector educacional:
America Latina, poblacion en edad escolar, edades simples y anos
calendarios, 1980-2000.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol.
23, No. 46, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.92. Jul 1990. 288 pp. Santiago,
Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Data are presented on the population of Latin
America and its 20 major countries for single years of age from 0 to 24
by sex for each calendar year from 1980 to 2000. Data are also
included on total population by country, 1950-2025, and on population
growth rates, 1980-2000, for different young age
groups.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10097 USSR.
Gosudarstvennyi Komitet SSSR po Statistike (Moscow, USSR).
Population projections for the USSR. [O prognoze chislennosti
naseleniya SSSR.] Vestnik Statistiki, No. 10, 1990. 41-3 pp. Moscow,
USSR. In Rus.
Population projections for the Soviet Union are
presented up to the year 2015. Separate figures are provided for rural
and urban population by republic, and for the economically active
population by rural and urban area and
republic.
Correspondence: Gosudarstvennyi Komitet SSSR po
Statistike, ul. Kirova 39, 103450 Moscow, USSR. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10098 Willekens,
Frans J. Demographic forecasting; state-of-the-art and
research needs. In: Emerging issues in demographic research,
edited by Cornelius A. Hazeu and Gerard A. B. Frinking. 1990. 9-76 pp.
Elsevier Science Publishers: New York, New York/Amsterdam, Netherlands.
In Eng.
The state of the art of demographic forecasting is
summarized, and future directions are discussed. The author emphasizes
the change in forecasting from pattern-oriented to process-oriented
analysis. "I firmly believe that a breakthrough in our ability to
foresee the future can only be expected if we come to grasp with the
causal factors and processes that determine the level, sequence and
timing of demographic events as we observe them. It requires not only
to identify the factors and processes as well as their
interrelatedness, but also to understand the mechanisms by which they
produce the picture of demographic change that we are able to witness."
Comments are included by Nathan Keyfitz (pp. 67-9) and Leo J. G. van
Wissen (pp. 71-6).
Correspondence: F. J. Willekens,
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650,
2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
57:10099 Ales,
Milan. Population development in Czechoslovakia in
1989. [Populacni vyvoj v Ceskoslovensku v roce 1989.] Demografie,
Vol. 32, No. 4, 1990. 289-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population dynamics in Czechoslovakia are
examined for the year 1989. Trends described include fertility,
nuptiality, mortality, and international migration. The effect of
induced abortion on fertility is discussed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
57:10100 Sutton,
Keith; Nacer, M'hamed. Population changes in Algeria,
1977-87. Geography, Vol. 75, Pt. 4, No. 329, Oct 1990. 335-47 pp.
Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"The Algerian population census of 1987
reveals that previous inter-censal trends between 1966 and 1977 have
not always been continued. Coastal urban poles have decelerated in
their growth and the primacy of Algiers has not been strengthened. A
belt of interior High Plains regions has shown strong acceleration,
again a marked reversal of earlier trends. In part this may reflect
success for a regional planning strategy but other such policies may
need to be re-evaluated in the light of these 1977-87 population
trends. Particular emphasis is given to the unexpectedly slow growth
rate of the coastal metropolises and especially the appearance of
'inner city' population decline in Central
Algiers."
Correspondence: K. Sutton, Victoria University of
Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
