Volume 57 - Number 1 - Spring 1991

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

57:10068 Arkadiev, Dimitar. Changes in the population and the number of households (families) in Bulgarian territories. [Izmeneniya v broya na naselenieto i na domakinstvata (semeistvata) po Balgarskite zemi.] Naselenie, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1988. 41-57 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
In this study, the author attempts to estimate the population and total number of households within the present boundaries of Bulgaria from prehistoric times up to 1878. Data are from a variety of archaeological, literary, and other sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10069 Botev, Nikolai. What do age-specific growth rates reveal? [Za kakvo "razkazvat" povazrastovite koefitsienti na prirast.] Naselenie, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1989. 69-85 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"This paper summarizes a generalization of the stable population theory pioneered by S. H. Preston and A. J. Coale, and elaborates on a particular case of this generalization suggested by Horiuchi and Preston. Based on the properties of age-specific growth rates to reflect in an indirect manner past population dynamics, an attempt is made to shed light on some aspects of the population history of Bulgaria, which until now have been 'hidden' due to the lack, or the unreliability of the statistical data."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10070 Drouin, Francois. The urban population of Quebec, 1795-1971: origin and other census characteristics. [La population urbaine de Quebec, 1975-1971. Origines et autres caracteristiques de recensement.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 19, No. 1, Spring 1990. 95-112 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper presents the first results of a comprehensive study devoted to the history of the population of the city and the region of Quebec, between 1795 and 1971. Data on origin, place of birth, religion and language have been used in order to analyse the degree of homogeneity of the population. In 1971, the Quebec region [contained] almost exclusively persons from French-Canadian origin, born in the province of Quebec, baptized in the catholic church, and speaking French. This image of [a] highly homogeneous population should however be retouched, particularly with regard to the genetical contribution of British and especially Irish immigrants."
Correspondence: F. Drouin, Universite Laval, Departement d'Histoire, Cite Universitaire, Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10071 Klein, Ira. Population growth and mortality in British India. Part II: the demographic revolution. Indian Economic and Social History Review, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 33-63 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author continues to examine the causes of the rapid growth of population that occurred in India following World War I. In this second part of a two-part article, he looks at the causes of the mortality decline that occurred in the interwar period, particularly why mortality declined so rapidly without significant evidence of material advances among the population as a whole. The causes of the decline are identified as a reduction in mortality from diseases, such as the plague, and the expansion of a general biological immunization in the population, rather than as the development of successful social policies.
For Part 1, published in 1989, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: I. Klein, American University, Department of History, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20016. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:10072 Klein, Ira. Population growth and mortality. Part I: the climacteric of death. Indian Economic and Social History Review, Vol. 26, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1989. 387-403 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author examines the causes of the rapid growth in population that occurred in India following World War I. His primary thesis is that the decline in mortality that led to a population explosion was not caused by better material or medical conditions; it primarily reflects involuntary causes, particularly the impact on human immunities of changes in disease ecology. In this first part, the author focuses on mortality in the 50-year period from 1871-1921. He concludes that "death-rates remained high for the fifty years, 1872-1921, for 'traditional' reasons of ill-health, poverty, malnutrition, insanitation, ineffective medical care, scarcity and famine--immemorial facets of the human condition in India. But death-rates increased because changes in disease ecology maximised exposure to new disease microbes among a vulnerable, poorly immune population."
Correspondence: I. Klein, American University, Department of History, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20016. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:10073 Konar, Dhirendra N.; Konar, Birendra N. A profile of India's demographic pattern since 1891. Economic Affairs, Vol. 34, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1989. 249-56 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
The authors analyze population growth and the components of growth in India since 1891.
Correspondence: D. N. Konar, Kalyani University, Department of Commerce, Kalyani, India. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

57:10074 McCarthy, Justin. The population of Palestine: population history and statistics of the late Ottoman period and the mandate. Institute for Palestine Studies Series, ISBN 0-231-07110-8. LC 90-1641. 1990. [xxvii], 242 pp. Columbia University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This publication contains a selection of demographic data on the population of Palestine during the late Ottoman period (primarily the nineteenth century) and the period of the British mandate (the inter-war period). The available data sources are first described. The statistical data are then presented, with separate sections on Ottoman statistics; European statistics of the Ottoman period; mandate statistics on population, age distribution, fertility, mortality, nuptiality, rural and urban population and population density, and migration; and Zionist statistics.
Correspondence: Columbia University Press, 562 West 113th Street, New York, NY 10025. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10075 Tsubouchi, Yoshihiro. A re-examination of Raffles's statistics on the population of Java in the early nineteenth century. Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 28, No. 2, Sep 1990. 206-21 pp. Kyoto, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes the accuracy of the population data published by Sir Thomas Raffles concerning early nineteenth-century Java, Indonesia. Specific topics considered include "a. errors in computation, b. distribution of household size by sub-district, c. distribution of sex-ratio by sub-district, d. variation of age-structure by sub-district, [and] e. problems of Chinese population. Special attention was given to the consistency of the definition of categories and the distribution patterns of the reported figures."
Correspondence: Y. Tsubouchi, Kyoto University, Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Shimoadachi-cho 46, Yoshida, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

57:10076 Begum, Sharifa. Population birth, death and growth rate in Bangladesh: census estimates. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 18, No. 2, Jun 1990. 51-75 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"The present estimates of the population vital rates [for Bangladesh] for various intercensal periods during 1951-81 with the help of census data and [the] South Asian Pattern of Model Life Table suggest that the previous estimates for the same [period] using the same data but [the] West Model Life Table were overestimates. The present estimates suggest that the population birth and death rates during 1951-61 and 1961-74 periods were respectively 43 and 18 and 45 and 16 instead of 49 and 24 and 47 and 18 estimated earlier. The present estimates further suggest that these vital rates during [the] 1974-81 period were 44 and 15. The population growth rates suggested by the study during 1951-61 is 2.5 per cent and during 1961-81 is 2.9 per cent. The present study therefore suggests that Bangladesh during the past two decades of l960s and l970s has experienced little demographic change."
Correspondence: S. Begum, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, E-17 Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

57:10077 Bloch, Dieter. Soviet Union--number of inhabitants of administrative units and large cities. [Sowjetunion--Einwohnerzahlen der Verwaltungseinheiten und Grossstadte.] Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, Vol. 134, No. 1, 1990. 49-52 pp. Gotha, German Democratic Republic. In Ger.
The paper presents population statistics, taken from census results published in Pravda, of various administrative areas and large cities in the USSR as of January 12, 1989. Data are included on population size, population growth since 1979, proportion of the population living in urban areas, and population density.
Correspondence: D. Bloch, VEB Hermann Haack, Geographisch-Kartographische Anstalt, Gotha, Germany. Location: New York Public Library.

57:10078 Dominican Republic. Oficina Nacional de Planificacion [ONAPLAN] (Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic); Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo [IEPD] (Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Dominican Republic: population estimates and projections by planning regions and subregions, by calendar year, sex, and age. 1980-2000. [Republica Dominicana: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion por regiones y subregiones de planificacion, segun anos calendario, sexo y edad. 1980-2000.] Fasciculo F./REPDOM.2, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/CR/R.6. ISBN 9977-58-127-4. Jul 1989. 93 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections from 1980 to 2000 are provided for the Dominican Republic by year, age, and sex, for regions and for subregions. An introductory chapter analyzes trends in the major demographic indicators over the period 1970-1980 and discusses the assumptions on which the estimates and projections are based.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Av. 6a y Calle 19, Edificio Unibanco, Apartado 5249, San Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10079 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident population as at December 31, 1989, by sex and age and by district and autonomous region. [Estimativas de populacao residente em 31.XII.1989 segundo o sexo e por idades nos distritos e regioes autonomas.] Serie Estimativas Provisorias, No. 11, Oct 1990. [53] pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are presented for Portugal for 1989 by sex and age and by district and autonomous region.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos, Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10080 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident population as at December 31, 1989, by sex for regions. [Estimativas de populacao residente em 31.XII.1989 segundo o sexo nos concelhos.] Serie Estimativas Provisorias, No. 12, Nov 1990. [22] pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are presented for Portugal for 1989 by sex and by autonomous region, district, and minor civil division.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Gabinete de Estudos Demograficos, Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10081 Uruguay. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Uruguay: estimates and projections of the urban and rural population by sex and age, 1975-2025. [Uruguay: estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion urbana y rural por sexo y edad, 1975-2025.] 1989. 97 pp. Montevideo, Uruguay. In Eng.
Estimates and projections of the urban and rural population of Uruguay are presented for the period 1985-2025. Details of the methodology used are provided.
Correspondence: Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

57:10082 Cieslak, Maria; Dittmann, Pawel; Kuropka, Ireneusz; Oktabska, Ewa; Pawlukowicz, Roman; Radzikowska, Barbara. Polish demographic trends--analysis and forecasts. [Rozwoj demograficzny Polski--analiza i prognozowanie.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 319, 1990. 178 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This is a collection of separate studies on aspects of projecting future demographic trends in Poland. The first chapter, by Maria Cieslak, examines the concepts and methods available for measuring demographic trends. The second chapter, by Ireneusz Kuropka and Barbara Radzikowska, is concerned with international comparisons of demographic trends. The third chapter, by Ewa Oktabska, introduces the concepts involved in measuring the quality of life. The fourth chapter, by Kuropka and Radzikowska, considers econometric models of the components of demographic change. The fifth chapter, by Pawel Dittmann and Kuropka, forecasts population trends in Poland up to the year 2000. The sixth and final chapter, by Roman Pawlukowicz, looks at the applicability of probability models to the forecasting of fertility distributions among hypothetical female cohorts in Poland up to 2000.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10083 de Beer, J. Population forecasts 1990: higher population growth caused by more immigration. [Bevolkingsprognose 1990: hogere bevolkingsgroei door meer immigratie.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 38, No. 12, Dec 1990. 20-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population trends in the Netherlands are forecast for the next 30 years and determinants of projected population growth are discussed. The major cause of population increase is considered to be international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10084 Granados, Maria del P. Methods of subnational population projection. [Metodos para proyecciones subnacionales de poblacion.] CELADE Serie OI, No. 42, Nov 1989. 313 pp. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadistica [DANE]: Bogota, Colombia; U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This volume contains papers from a 1988 international seminar on subnational population projection in Latin America held in Girardot, Colombia. Topics covered include population projections and socioeconomic structure; development planning; use of the components method for national and small-area projections; the cohort relation method; evaluation of projection techniques for small areas; and use of the PRODEM system developed by CELADE for processing population projections. Papers are also included on a simplified multiregional model and other regional projection techniques, illustrated with data for Brazil and Chile; provincial projections for Argentina by sex and age, 1970-1990; estimates and projections for Bolivia by department, sex, and age for urban and rural areas, 1970-2000; and systems to elaborate subnational projections for intermediate and small areas by sex and age group.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10085 Hecht, Jacqueline. The future was their business: some examples of demographic projections in the eighteenth century. [L'avenir etait leur affaire: de quelques essais de prevision demographique au XVIIIeme siecle.] European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 6, No. 3, Sep 1990. 285-322 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses European population projections made in the eighteenth century and the cultural, ideological, and scientific philosophies that influenced them.
Correspondence: J. Hecht, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10086 Inoue, Shunichi; Wils, Anne B. United Nations population projections. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991. 487-501 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The purpose of this chapter is to give an overview of the population projections prepared and published by the United Nations. In the first section, we discuss various types of projections. In the second section, we explore the methods and components used to make projections and efforts to improve our knowledge of influences on the factors we are trying to project. The third section focuses specifically on recent U.N. population projections and the ingredients that went into them."
Correspondence: S. Inoue, U.N. Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10087 Keilman, Nico. National population projection methods in developed countries. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991. 465-86 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This chapter discusses methodological issues of current national population projections in the 31 developed countries that participated in a survey in early 1988. The aim of this survey was to collect information on methodological aspects of national population projections in industrialized countries....The international comparison in this chapter includes the demographic characteristics of future populations; the various approaches used to extrapolate fertility, mortality, and external migration...; the time horizon of the projection results; and a discussion of the projection model's equations."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, NL-2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10088 Keyfitz, Nathan. On future mortality. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-89-59, Aug 1989. iii, 16, [2] pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"Since the future population of any area depends on the three components (future births, deaths, and migration) in a simple accounting identity, its forecasting comes down to forecasting these components. The present paper looks into the mortality component, examining past mortality on the basis of Canadian data for the period 1921 to 1981. The examination shows that which past interval one takes as the indication of the pace of future population improvement is the most important element of the forecast of mortality."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10089 Lutz, Wolfgang; Prinz, Christopher; Wils, Anne B.; Buttner, Thomas; Heilig, Gerhard. Alternative demographic scenarios for Europe and North America. In: Future demographic trends in Europe and North America: what can we assume today? edited by Wolfgang Lutz. 1991. 523-60 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
The authors present "actual alternative projections...calculated for three regions of the industrialized world--namely, Western Europe, Eastern Europe (including the European parts of the USSR), and North America. The consequences of alternative assumptions on future mortality, fertility, and migration that are mostly based on alternative suggestions directly or implicitly made by the authors in this volume are compared with each other and with U.N. projections as a point of reference. Generally, we find that the range of possible population futures up to the year 2050 is surprisingly large even when comparing it to the range of other areas with much greater uncertainties, such as economic trends."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10090 Lutz, Wolfgang. Future demographic trends in Europe and North America: what can we assume today? Studies in Population, ISBN 0-12-460445-5. 1991. xx, 585 pp. Academic Press: San Diego, California/London, England; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"The present volume of papers, partly arising out of a conference sponsored by IIASA in October 1988, is an attempt to...[forecast demographic trends. The authors] examine in turn the three inputs to population projections--longevity, reproduction, and migration--making use of trends, of breakdowns (deaths by cause, births by parity, etc.) and of professional opinion in medicine and other relevant fields." The geographical focus is on North America and Europe.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Academic Press, 24-28 Oval Road, London NW1 7DX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10091 Morrison, Peter A. Pictures of the future--childhood, the workplace, our communities. Rand Paper, No. P-7656, Jul 1990. iii, 14 pp. Rand Corporation: Santa Monica, California. In Eng.
The focus of this paper is on future demographic change in the United States and the effects on the state of childhood, the workplace, and communities. The author discusses the demographic impact of economic inequality among children, specifically, inadequate prenatal care and child care needs; the changing age structure as it affects the workplace; and the increasing diversity of the racial and ethnic makeup of U.S. communities.
Correspondence: Rand Corporation, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90406-2138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10092 Population Reference Bureau. Innovative Materials for Population Action [IMPACT] (Washington, D.C.). African population images. 1990. 24 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population dynamics of Africa are projected for the period 1950-2025. Color computer graphics are utilized to represent population increase, population and urban growth for the continent and individual countries, age distribution, differential fertility levels, and contraceptive use. Data are from the United Nations and from selected national demographic and health surveys.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, Innovative Materials for Population Action, 777 14th Street NW, Suite 800, Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10093 Prusa, Ladislav. Projection of changes in the number of full old-age pensions. [Prognoza vyvoje poctu plnych starobnich duchodu.] Demografie, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1990. 337-42 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The Czechoslovak population is projected by sex and age cohort to the year 2010 for the purpose of determining old-age pension needs. Data are from 1987 life tables.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10094 Rogers, Andrei; Woodward, Jennifer A. Using transparent multiregional demographic models to assess the recent U.S. Bureau of the Census state projections. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-90-1, Feb 1990. 30, [13] pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"In this paper we have combined multistate (multiregional) mathematical demography with parameterized model schedules to develop a modeling procedure that can be used to produce conceptually simple and operationally transparent population projections....We illustrate how the [U.S.] Census Bureau's projections of Florida's and Colorado's population can be usefully assessed and interpreted by the construction of a transparent multiregional model that mimics the procedures used by the Bureau's model. We then also offer examples of multiregional output measures that the Bureau should produce to ease the assessment problem for the user. And, finally, we introduce a parameterized model schedule perspective that can be adopted to increase the transparency of the Bureau's input data and assumptions."
Correspondence: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10095 Singh, Mohan. Population projections for India: 1981-2016. Asian Profile, Vol. 17, No. 6, Dec 1989. 533-52 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
Revised population projections for India up to the year 2016 are presented. The projections were made using the FIVFIV package developed by F. C. Shorter applied to 1981 census data. "The basic objectives of this paper are to review the previous population projections, to frame base-line assumptions, and, finally, to discuss the findings of these projections in the light of national population policy and planning. In addition, size of rural and urban population is projected for each tenth year during the projection period. The doubling time of the population is also calculated with a view to finding out the possibility for stabilization of population in the future."
Correspondence: M. Singh, Australian National University, National Centre for Development Studies, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).

57:10096 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Demographic elements for the educational sector: Latin America, school-age population, single ages and calendar years, 1980-2000. [Insumos demograficos para el sector educacional: America Latina, poblacion en edad escolar, edades simples y anos calendarios, 1980-2000.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 46, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.92. Jul 1990. 288 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Data are presented on the population of Latin America and its 20 major countries for single years of age from 0 to 24 by sex for each calendar year from 1980 to 2000. Data are also included on total population by country, 1950-2025, and on population growth rates, 1980-2000, for different young age groups.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10097 USSR. Gosudarstvennyi Komitet SSSR po Statistike (Moscow, USSR). Population projections for the USSR. [O prognoze chislennosti naseleniya SSSR.] Vestnik Statistiki, No. 10, 1990. 41-3 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Population projections for the Soviet Union are presented up to the year 2015. Separate figures are provided for rural and urban population by republic, and for the economically active population by rural and urban area and republic.
Correspondence: Gosudarstvennyi Komitet SSSR po Statistike, ul. Kirova 39, 103450 Moscow, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10098 Willekens, Frans J. Demographic forecasting; state-of-the-art and research needs. In: Emerging issues in demographic research, edited by Cornelius A. Hazeu and Gerard A. B. Frinking. 1990. 9-76 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: New York, New York/Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The state of the art of demographic forecasting is summarized, and future directions are discussed. The author emphasizes the change in forecasting from pattern-oriented to process-oriented analysis. "I firmly believe that a breakthrough in our ability to foresee the future can only be expected if we come to grasp with the causal factors and processes that determine the level, sequence and timing of demographic events as we observe them. It requires not only to identify the factors and processes as well as their interrelatedness, but also to understand the mechanisms by which they produce the picture of demographic change that we are able to witness." Comments are included by Nathan Keyfitz (pp. 67-9) and Leo J. G. van Wissen (pp. 71-6).
Correspondence: F. J. Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

57:10099 Ales, Milan. Population development in Czechoslovakia in 1989. [Populacni vyvoj v Ceskoslovensku v roce 1989.] Demografie, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1990. 289-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population dynamics in Czechoslovakia are examined for the year 1989. Trends described include fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and international migration. The effect of induced abortion on fertility is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:10100 Sutton, Keith; Nacer, M'hamed. Population changes in Algeria, 1977-87. Geography, Vol. 75, Pt. 4, No. 329, Oct 1990. 335-47 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"The Algerian population census of 1987 reveals that previous inter-censal trends between 1966 and 1977 have not always been continued. Coastal urban poles have decelerated in their growth and the primacy of Algiers has not been strengthened. A belt of interior High Plains regions has shown strong acceleration, again a marked reversal of earlier trends. In part this may reflect success for a regional planning strategy but other such policies may need to be re-evaluated in the light of these 1977-87 population trends. Particular emphasis is given to the unexpectedly slow growth rate of the coastal metropolises and especially the appearance of 'inner city' population decline in Central Algiers."
Correspondence: K. Sutton, Victoria University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).


Copyright © 1991-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.