56:40717
Bhattacharya, B. N.; Singh, K. K.; Singh, Uttam; Pandey, C.
M. An extension of a model for first birth interval and
some social factors. Sankhya: Indian Journal of Statistics,
Series B, Vol. 51, No. 1, Apr 1989. 115-24 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
"A model for the time of first birth is presented under certain
assumptions, which involve biological and socio-cultural factors." The
model is illustrated using data from Rural Development and Population
Growth--A Sample Survey, 1978, conducted in Varanasi, India, and
involving some 3,514 households.
Correspondence: B. N.
Bhattacharya, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 Barrackpore Trunk Road,
Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
56:40718 Caselli,
Graziella; Lombardo, Enzo. Graphics and demographic
analysis: some aspects of their history and the present
situation. [Graphiques et analyse demographique: quelques
elements d'histoire et d'actualite.] Population, Vol. 45, No. 2,
Mar-Apr 1990. 399-414 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The authors review how demographers have used graphs and figures to
illustrate demographic concepts from the seventeenth century to the
present. "During the first half of the nineteenth century, J. B.
Fourier and A. Quetelet used graphic methods efficiently, to help in an
understanding and synthesis of demographic phenomena. Between 1860 and
1880, a number of authors (Berg, Knapp, Zeuner, Becker, Lexis and
Lewin) tried to solve the problem of plotting demographic data in three
dimensions by age, period and cohort. Their efforts resulted on one
hand in the famous Lexis diagram, and on the other in stereograms, of
which those by Perozzo were warmly received, and which are briefly
described here. Finally, the authors present the recent method of
contour maps as a representation of demographic surfaces, which make it
possible for the reader to look at age, period and cohort
simultaneously."
Correspondence: G. Caselli, Universita
degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche,
Via Nomentana 41, Rome 00161, Italy. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
56:40719 Chu, C. Y.
Cyrus. An existence theorem on the stationary state of
income distribution and population growth. International Economic
Review, Vol. 31, No. 1, Feb 1990. 171-85 pp. Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"Through a utility-maximizing process,
individuals derive their optimal fertility and bequest decisions both
as functions of their initial socioeconomic backgrounds. The
combination of these two decisions form a multi-type Galton-Watson
process. Under weak assumptions, it is proved that the economy will
converge to a unique stationary state which implies both a constant
population growth rate and a time-invariant income distribution. As
such, this paper extends the Becker-Willis static micro-level fertility
demand model to a dynamic macro-level population growth model.
Alternatively, our model can be viewed as a generalization of Laitner's
stochastic income theory where no differential fertility is
allowed."
Correspondence: C. Y. C. Chu, National Taiwan
University, Department of Economics, 1 Roosevelt Road IV, Taipei,
Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
56:40720 Copas, J.
B.; Hilton, F. J. Record linkage: statistical models for
matching computer records. Journal of the Royal Statistical
Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 153, No. 3, 1990.
287-320 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"We wish to measure the
evidence that a pair of records relates to the same, rather than
different, individuals. The paper emphasizes statistical models which
can be fitted to a file of record pairs known to be correctly matched,
and then used to estimate likelihood ratios. A number of models are
developed and applied to U.K. immigration statistics. The combination
of likelihood ratios for possibly correlated record fields is
discussed." A series of comments on the paper is also included, as
well as a reply to those comments by the author (pp.
312-20).
Correspondence: J. B. Copas, University of
Birmingham, School of Mathematics and Statistics, POB 363, Birmingham
B15 2TT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
56:40721 Dionne,
Claude. Three questions concerning methods of calculating
life expectancy. [Trois questions sur le mode de calcul de
l'esperance de vie.] In: Populations agees et revolution grise: les
hommes et les societes face a leurs vieillissements, edited by Michel
Loriaux, Dominique Remy, and Eric Vilquin. [1990]. 219-31 pp.
Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Editions CIACO: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
In Fre.
Problems concerning the use of life tables to study the
mortality of the oldest among a population are examined. A new
approach to the study of mortality at advanced ages is proposed, which
the author describes as the method of
origin-destination.
Correspondence: C. Dionne, Bureau de la
Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40722
Feichtinger, Gustav; Dockner, Engelbert J. Capital
accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles.
Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1990. 73-87 pp. New
York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"In
this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in
industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference
between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an
endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an
adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth
paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic
system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population)
swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The
reason behind this 'strange' optimal behaviour is identified to be an
intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of
consumption."
Correspondence: G. Feichtinger, Technical
University of Vienna, Institute for Econometrics, OR and Systems
Theory, Argentinierstrasse 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40723 Hartmann,
David J. Longitudinal analysis with census tract
data. In: Essays in human ecology, No. 3, edited by Donald J.
Bogue and David J. Hartmann. 1990. 68-78 pp. Garcia-Bogue Research and
Development: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The author presents an
argument for the use of longitudinal analysis of census tract data for
predicting urban change and its causes. He describes the application of
such an approach to both policy evaluation and housing policy. The
geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence:
D. J. Hartmann, Southwest Missouri State University, 901 South
National, Springfield, MO 65804. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
56:40724 Hoem, Jan
M. Limitations of a heterogeneity technique: selectivity
issues in conjugal union disruption at parity zero in contemporary
Sweden. In: Convergent issues in genetics and demography, edited
by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin, and Peter E. Smouse.
1990. 133-53 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford,
England. In Eng.
"It is the purpose of this chapter to contribute
to an assessment of [unobserved heterogeneity techniques] by reporting
on an attempt to gain improved insight by incorporating persistent
unobserved heterogeneity explicitly into a model for a behavior where
it is manifestly present and is easily detected by simpler
procedures....[The experiment fails, but] it is published as a warning
against undue optimism concerning the usefulness of current
heterogeneity techniques. Since unobserved heterogeneity is likely to
be present in situations studied in genetics as well as in demography
(and in many other fields), there is a message here for geneticist and
demographer alike." The method is applied to data from a 1981 Swedish
fertility survey concerning dissolution of marital
unions.
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University,
Demography Section, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40725 Lam, David;
Smouse, Peter E. Heterogeneous frailty analysis in
demography and genetics. In: Convergent issues in genetics and
demography, edited by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin,
and Peter E. Smouse. 1990. 97-109 pp. Oxford University Press: New
York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors present an
overview of methods of analyzing heterogeneity in the fields of
demography and population genetics. They pay particular attention to
heterogeneous frailty modeling.
Correspondence: D. Lam,
University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South
University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40726 Larner,
Wendy. Feminist methodologies and population
research. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, May 1990.
26-38 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"In this paper I will
discuss how the insights of feminist social scientists can be of
revelance to methodological discussions in population research, drawing
on research conducted during 1989 which looked at the labour force
participation of Samoan women in New
Zealand."
Correspondence: W. Larner, University of Waikato,
Geography Department, Hamilton, New Zealand. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40727 Rogers,
Andrei. The multistate stable population model with
immigration. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1990.
313-24, 325 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum.
in Fre.
"This paper outlines the discrete-time and continuous-time
formulations of the stable population model with immigration, showing
their commonality. It then illustrates how the model can be extended
to include multiple interacting populations, and goes on to consider a
multistate version of reproductive value that further illuminates the
evolutionary dynamics of an 'open' model of multistate population
growth and redistribution. Attention is restricted to results arising
from a fertility regime that is below replacement level." Data are
from the 1980 U.S. census.
Correspondence: A. Rogers,
University of Colorado, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO
80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40728 Sawyer,
Diana O.; Castilla, Francisco M. Data, methods, and
indirect techniques of estimating mortality. [Dados, medidas e
tecnicas indiretas de estimacao de mortalidade.] Revista Brasileira de
Estudos de Populacao, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1989. 39-61 pp. Sao Paulo,
Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
The author compares alternative
methods for estimating infant and adult mortality using data from
various Brazilian sources. Methods of estimating child mortality
considered include those of Brass, Feeney, and Preston and Palloni.
The focus is on the selection of the most appropriate method for
estimating mortality in Brazil. The importance of information on
deaths in the previous year for the accurate estimation of current
mortality is stressed.
Correspondence: D. O. Sawyer,
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Centro de Desenvolvimento e
Plenajemanento Regional, Departamento de Ciencias Economicas, Rua
Curitiba 832, Belo Horizonte MG, Brazil. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
56:40729 Schuur,
Jan. The micro model in spatial planning. [Het micro
model in de ruimtelijke planning.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Aug 1990.
39-54 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"What is a
micro model? What does it add to existing tools in demography? These
and related questions are considered both from a methodological and
from an empirical point of view. The role of rational choice theory in
micro modelling is reviewed. The current discussion on population and
planning models in the Netherlands is used as an illustration of the
argument. Particular attention is given to the migration
decision-making process."
Correspondence: J. Schuur,
Postbus 90618, 2509 LP The Hague, Netherlands. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40730 Trussell,
James; Rodriguez, German. Heterogeneity in demographic
research. In: Convergent issues in genetics and demography, edited
by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin, and Peter E. Smouse.
1990. 111-32 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford,
England. In Eng.
"In this chapter, we have examined the
incorporation of covariates in three statistical models appropriate for
the analysis of demographic data....We also address, for each of the
models, the value of incorporating an extra source of variation by
adding an unobservable. Unobservables have been extensively explored in
the context of hazard regressions used for event history analysis. We
review this prior work and explore critically its implications. We
conclude that the methods proposed to correct for unobservable
heterogeneity deliver less than is commonly assumed, particularly
because of an inherent non-identifiability involved when the analyst
must rely on observables to assess
goodness-of-fit."
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Princeton
University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue,
Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
56:40731 Valkovics,
Emil. Contradictions between different degrees of
aging. [Contradictions entre differents degres de vieillissement.]
In: Populations agees et revolution grise: les hommes et les societes
face a leurs vieillissements, edited by Michel Loriaux, Dominique Remy,
and Eric Vilquin. [1990]. 233-59 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain,
Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Editions CIACO:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
Comparisons are made among
various stable populations with regard to different criteria for
defining optimal population in the context of demographic aging.
Various stable populations of the Coale-Demeney East model with the
same mortality levels but varying rates of natural increase are
compared using different economic and noneconomic criteria of
optimization. Methods of calculating the net reproduction rate that
would result in the minimum demographic change are
presented.
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kozponti
Statisztikai Hivatal, Institut de Recherches Demographiques, Keleti
Karoly U. 57, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
56:40732 Verbon,
Harrie A. A. Transfers to the old, government debt and
demographic change. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No.
2, 1990. 89-104 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Eng.
"In this paper we take the view that policy
makers...take the relationship between (explicit) intergenerational
transfer systems (including public pension schemes) and government
deficits into account. It is assumed that policy makers are behaving
altruistically towards past and future generations. Given the
behavioral model, an analysis is made of the effects of demographic
changes (such as the 'baby-boom' of the 1940s and 1950s and the decline
of birth rates in the 1970s) on the decisions to be taken with respect
to the tax rate of the public pension system and the size of government
debt. From the analysis it appears that, with the assumption of
altruistic decision-makers, periods of increasing or decreasing debt
can occur alternately in periods of demographic change." The
geographical focus is on developed
countries.
Correspondence: H. A. A. Verbon, University of
Tilburg, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
