Volume 56 - Number 4 - Winter 1990

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

56:40585 Komlos, John; Artzrouni, Marc. Mathematical investigations of the escape from the Malthusian trap. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1990. 269-87, 325 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We present a simulation model that synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the way population growth and economic development were intertwined. The non-linear stochastic model consists of a system of equations whose dynamics culminate in an industrial revolution after hundreds of iterations. The Industrial Revolution [in Europe] can thus be conceptualized as a permanent 'escape' from the Malthusian trap that occurs once the economy is capable of permanently sustaining an ever growing population. We investigate the conditions for such an escape and their sensitivity to the parameters of the model....Our results show that the likelihood of an escape is sensitive to the savings rate and to the output elasticities of the two sectors of the economy. When not in a subsistence crisis, the chances that an escape will occur increase for larger values of the ratio of the savings rate to the growth rate of the population. The chances of an escape also increase substantially for larger values of the output elasticities of labor."
Correspondence: J. Komlos, University of Pittsburgh, Department of History, 4200 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15260-0001. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

56:40586 Boserup, Ester. Population growth as a stimulant to agricultural development. In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 61-75 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author discusses the circumstances under which the positive effects of population growth are most likely to outweigh the negative effects in developing countries. "The stimulating effect of rural population growth on agricultural development is due to the advantages of scale in rural activities, but the advantage may be outweighed by increasing scarcity of natural resources, or by government policies which have negative effects on rural development....The stimulating effects are largest in rural areas, which before the demographic transition (or before mass immigration began) had densities below the minimum level for economical investment in many types of rural activities, but come to exceed this minimum during the period of population growth."
Correspondence: E. Boserup, Casa Campagnola, Nevedone, CH-6614 Brissago, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40587 Canales, Jorge L. Demographic effects of large-scale development projects. [Efectos demograficos de grandes proyectos de desarrollo.] CELADE Serie E, No. 1005, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/CR/G.23. Jun 1990. xviii, 347 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica; Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This is a collection of some of the papers presented at a seminar and workshop on the demographic effects of development projects in Latin America, which was held in Cuba in July 1989 and was attended by more than 60 representatives of 14 Latin American countries and the United States. Sections are included on theoretical and methodological considerations; a group of case studies conducted in various countries in the region; descriptions of the experiences of professionals and national institutions in the incorporation of demographic variables in global and sectoral development planning; and new methods and available techniques for the analysis of development plans and disaggregated information.
Correspondence: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Apartado Postal 5249, San Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40588 Chesnais, Jean-Claude. Can the third world fight back? In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 130-7 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author examines the prospects for social and economic development in the third world and discusses possible means of reducing the gap in per capita income between developed and developing countries. He concludes that the prospects, even in Africa, are not as bad as is frequently held to be the case.
Correspondence: J.-C. Chesnais, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40589 Chevallier, Agnes; Kessler, Veronique. Developing economies and demographic challenges: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia. [Economies en developpement et defis demographiques: Algerie, Egypte, Maroc, Tunisie.] Notes et Etudes Documentaires, No. 4878, 1989. 148 pp. Documentation Francaise: Paris, France. In Fre.
This study examines the efforts of Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia to achieve economic and social development in the face of both rapid population growth and financial constraints. The first chapter examines the demographic transition in the countries concerned and looks at population prospects up to the year 2025. Other chapters are included on the labor force and employment, education and health, budget constraints, and the food situation, with a focus on how the demographic factor affects progress in these areas. The author concludes that these countries have coped reasonably well to date in the face of demographic pressures, but that their ability to continue to do so is limited by financial constraints.
Correspondence: Documentation Francaise, 124 rue Henri Barbusse, 93308 Aubervilliers Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (UN).

56:40590 de Haen, Hartwig. Must development policy pay greater attention to demographic trends in third world countries? [Muss die Entwicklungspolitik der demographischen Entwicklung in den Landern der Dritten Welt grossere Aufmerksamkeit schenken?] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 296-303 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The negative impact of population growth on socioeconomic development in the third world is discussed. It is suggested that development policy should concentrate on strategies such as rural development and the promotion of labor-intensive technologies.
Correspondence: H. de Haen, Georg-August-Universitat Gottingen, Institut fur Agrarokonomie, Postfach 3744, 3400 Gottingen, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40591 Deolalikar, Anil B. The relationship between nutrition and income in developing countries. In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 97-106 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The relationship between income and nutrition in developing countries is examined.
Correspondence: A. B. Deolalikar, Harvard University, Department of Economics, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40592 Gupta, Kamla. Industrialisation, urbanisation and rural development in India. In: Population transition in India, Volume 2, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 335-43 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper aims to study the relationship between industrialisation, urbanisation and rural development in the context of major Indian states based on 1981 census data. The paper is divided into two sections. In the first section we discuss industrialisation, economic and technological development and urbanisation links. Ten variables have been selected to determine industrial, economic and technological development of a state....Section two deals with the impact of urbanisation [and] industrialisation on rural transformation of the state concerned."
Correspondence: K. Gupta, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40593 Husain, Irfan; Ali, Reza. Pakistan A.D. 2006. 2nd ed. 1989. v, 74 pp. Family Planning Association of Pakistan: Lahore, Pakistan. In Eng.
This report describes current demographic trends in Pakistan and their probable impact on socioeconomic development over the next 17 years. The authors conclude that demographic trends are the major factor affecting the country's ability to achieve successful development.
Correspondence: Family Planning Association of Pakistan, FPAP House, 3-A Temple Road, Lahore, Pakistan. Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

56:40594 Ramachandrudu, Gudena. Determinants of population growth in India. ISBN 81-210-0248-6. LC 89-906191. 1989. 300 pp. Inter-India Publications: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a statistical analysis of population growth in the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh from 1901 to 1981. It is based on data from various official sources, including the census and Sample Registration System. The analysis separately considers the three main components of population change, namely, fertility, mortality, and migration. The study concentrates on the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic variables, particularly the relationship between fertility decline and socioeconomic development. It concludes with recommendations for developing a policy designed to reduce fertility.
Correspondence: Inter-India Publications, D-17 Raja Garden Extension, New Delhi 110 015, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40595 Rosenzweig, Mark R. Population growth and human capital investments: theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, No. 5, Pt. 2, Oct 1990. S38-70 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"This paper presents evidence from empirical studies that test hypotheses derived from models of household behavior pertaining to the interrelationships among population growth, human capital, and economic development. These studies have exploited quasi-natural experiments embodied in the cross-area variability in the wage rates of children in a number of low-income countries, the intercouple variation in the biological propensity to conceive, and the geographically selective introduction of new high-yielding seed varieties in India in the period 1961-71. The different varieties of evidence support the hypotheses that alterations in the returns to human capital associated with exogenous technical change lead simultaneously to increases in human capital investments and to reductions in fertility and that the costliness of fertility control is a significant but modest factor in inhibiting human capital investments."
Correspondence: M. R. Rosenzweig, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40596 Schmid, Josef. The controversies over population growth and economic development. [Die Kontroversen um Bevolkerungswachstum und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung.] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 19-35 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The controversies over whether population growth helps or hinders economic development in the third world are reviewed. The relevance of the historical European experience is also assessed.
Correspondence: J. Schmid, Universitat Bamberg, Lehrstuhl fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Kapuzinerstrasse 16, 8600 Bamberg, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40597 Sibanda, Arnold E. Population and development problems: a critical assessment of conventional wisdom. The case of Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe Journal of Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jan 1988. 81-100 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
The author critically analyzes the Whitsun Foundation's 1983 Report on Population and Development Problems in Zimbabwe. In particular, he suggests that it is not possible to consider the issue of population realistically without accepting the need for a radical program of land reform. The author maintains that population problems, although serious, can only be resolved through industrialization and agricultural modernization, and a break with the Western capitalist economy.
Correspondence: A. E. Sibanda, Zimbabwe Institute of Development Studies, Ministry of Manpower Planning and Development, Private Bag 7750, Causeway, Harare, Zimbabwe. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40598 Steinmann, Gunter. Population growth, resources, and economic development. [Bevolkerungswachstum, Ressourcen und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung.] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 36-59 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The author contends that population growth in the third world can have positive rather than negative consequences. Questions examined include whether there is a population explosion, the impact of population growth on natural resources and economic development, and the desirability of population growth.
Correspondence: G. Steinmann, Universitat Paderborn, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Warburger Strasse 100, 4790 Paderborn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40599 Uthoff, Andras. Population and development in the Central American Isthmus. [Poblacion y desarrollo en el Istmo Centroamericano.] Revista de la CEPAL, No. 40, Apr 1990. 139-58 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
The author analyzes the interrelationships between demographic factors and socioeconomic development in the countries of the Central American mainland. The theme of the paper is that these interrelationships should be analyzed in the context of their impact on the standard of living of the population and that this can best be done by studying the labor market.
Location: Princeton University Library (UN).

56:40600 Wander, Hilde. Population growth and income security in the development process. [Bevolkerungswachstum und Einkommenssicherung im Entwicklungsprozess.] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 108-29 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The impact of demographic trends on income levels and employment is analyzed for 85 developing countries. The countries are grouped according to region and per capita income. Effects of declining mortality and fertility are considered.
Correspondence: H. Wander, Herderstrasse 4, 2300 Kiel, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

56:40601 Bos, Dieter; von Weizsacker, Robert K. Economic consequences of an aging population. European Economic Review, Vol. 33, No. 2-3, Mar 1989. 345-54 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Some of the economic consequences of demographic aging are examined as they affect developed countries.
Correspondence: D. Bos, University of Bonn, D-5300 Bonn 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:40602 Diamond, Charles A. Cost-of-living indexes and demographic change. Applied Economics, Vol. 22, No. 6, Jun 1990. 739-57 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author examines alternative measures for estimating cost-of-living increases in the United States, taking into account changes in population characteristics, particularly the growth in the number of families in which both husband and wife work. Particular attention is given to the usefulness of the Consumer Price Index as an indicator of cost-of-living increases. An alternative method of computing a cost-of-living index is proposed that is inexpensive to update, does not require statistical estimation, and is more flexible concerning changes in consumer preferences.
Correspondence: C. A. Diamond, Clemson University, Department of Economics, 222 Sirrine Hall, Clemson, SC 29634-1309. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:40603 Ganley, Ged. Forecasting financial services markets. In: Population projections: trends, methods and uses, by the British Society for Population Studies. 1990. 83-5 pp. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"A brief background to the requirements for [financial] market estimates and forecasts is provided. Some problems are discussed involving data and methodology, and some thoughts for the future are outlined." The geographical focus is on the United Kingdom.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40604 Johansson, Marten. Perspectives on demographic trends in the Nordic countries. [Perspektiv pa befolkningsutvecklingen i Norden.] Ekonomiska Samfundets Tidskrift, Vol. 43, No. 2, 1990. 103-15 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Swe. with sum. in Eng.
"The article highlights the demographic changes in the Nordic countries in the 20th century. Two aspects are paid special attention. First, the author discusses the possibility of forecasting the future development of the population in the light of the changes that have taken place in the 1980s. Secondly he analyses the consequences of the projected demographic changes, which focus on the impact of an ageing population on the dependency burden."
Correspondence: M. Johansson, Ministry of Domestic Affairs, Helsinki, Finland. Location: New York Public Library.

56:40605 Johnson, Paul. Our ageing population--the implications for business and government. Long Range Planning, Vol. 23, No. 2, Apr 1990. 55-62 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This article outlines the basic demographic facts about population ageing, details the nature of the economic problems that will arise, and analyses the ways in which corporations and governments can begin to take account of this demographic development in their medium and long term plans." The geographical focus is on developed countries.
Correspondence: P. Johnson, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40606 Loriaux, Michel. The time will come...for the grey revolution. What is at stake in a major social change. [Il sera une fois...la revolution grise. Jeux et enjeux autour d'une profonde mutation societale.] In: Populations agees et revolution grise: les hommes et les societes face a leurs vieillissements, edited by Michel Loriaux, Dominique Remy, and Eric Vilquin. [1990]. 3-32 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Editions CIACO: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
This is a general review of the consequences of demographic aging in modern industrialized societies. The author develops the theme that the major task of contemporary society will be to adapt to this fundamental change in a positive way.
Correspondence: M. Loriaux, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Department de Demographie, 1 Place Montesquieu, Boite 17, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40607 McMillan, Henry M.; Baesel, Jerome B. The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, No. 2, Spring 1990. 167-95 pp. Baton Rouge, Louisiana. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the impact of the Baby Boom generation on macroeconomic relationships in the United States. Using quarterly postwar data, it finds that measures of population age composition influenced real interest rates, income, inflation, and unemployment. The demographic variables complement or dominate other economic variables in reduced-form macroeconomic specifications. The paper also projects how the aging of the generation may influence future macroeconomic activity."
Correspondence: H. M. McMillan, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Washington, D.C. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40608 Ogawa, Naohiro. Population aging and household structural change in Japan. In: An aging world: dilemmas and challenges for law and social policy, edited by John M. Eekelaar and David Pearl. 1989. 75-97 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England; Nihon Kajo Publishing: Japan. In Eng.
"The principal objective of the present paper is to discuss the impact of the aging of the Japanese population upon (i) the future financial needs in the provision of health care services at the government level, (ii) the changing allocative pattern of such government health resources by type of household, and (iii) the manpower requirement in taking care of elderly patients at the familial level....The method of projecting the total medical expenditure is discussed, together with a short description of a long-term macroeconomic-demographic modeling framework."
Correspondence: N. Ogawa, Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40609 Schmitt, Gunther. What effect does world population growth have on the European agricultural market? [Welche Auswirkungen hat das Weltbevolkerungswachstum auf den europaischen Agrarmarkt?] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 218-40 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The effects of world population growth on the agricultural markets of the European Economic Community are analyzed. The impact of European agricultural protectionism is also considered.
Correspondence: G. Schmitt, Georg-August-Universitat Gottingen, Institut fur Agrarokonomie, Postfach 3744, 3400 Gottingen, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40610 Tapinos, Georges; Blanchet, Didier; Ekert-Jaffe, Olivia. Population and demand: demographic change, demand, and the structure of consumption. [Population et demande: changements demographiques, demande et structure de consommation.] INED Dossiers et Recherches, No. 23, Feb 1989. 43 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors examine the effect of probable future demographic trends on economic development, with particular reference to France. The focus is on the effect of such trends on demand rather than supply, with consideration given to changes in the age distribution of the population and in household size and type. Particular attention is given to the impact of such changes on the health and housing sectors. The authors conclude that given the assumptions made in the study, the expected demographic trends would have only moderate effects on economic demand in the foreseeable future.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40611 Wiseman, A. Clark. Projected long-term demographic trends and aggregate personal saving in the United States. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol. 11, No. 4, Summer 1989. 497-508 pp. Armonk, New York. In Eng.
The potential effect of the changing age distribution of the U.S. population on the level of aggregate saving is examined. "The Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle model predicts a relationship between age distribution and the aggregate saving ratio via the population growth rate, which affects the ratio of earner/savers to retiree-dissavers. Aging resulting from slower population growth will result in a decline in the aggregate saving rate. This paper utilizes empirical age-saving relations, together with projected long-run population age distributions, to estimate the age distribution effect on aggregate personal saving. Results predict a much smaller decline in the saving ratio than is generated by the basic life-cycle model."
Correspondence: A. C. Wiseman, Gonzaga University, School of Business Administration, Spokane, WA 99258-0001. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

56:40612 Ambirajan, S. Food, famine and hunger in Tamil Nadu: 1850-1900. In: Population transition in India, Volume 2, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 357-70 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author describes the relationships among food supply, hunger, and famine in India during the period 1850-1900. Attitudes toward hunger, religious aspects, the impact of British colonial rule, the social impact of famines, and the development of a labor class are examined, and their effect on the availability of food is assessed.
Correspondence: S. Ambirajan, Indian Institute of Technology, Madras, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40613 DeGregori, Thomas R. Population growth, resources, and pollution. In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 156-70 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The relationships among population growth, natural resources, and environmental pollution are explored. The author concludes that technological change and problem solving are integral parts of human development and are inherently polluting. The problem is to achieve a balance between progress and pollution and to apply technological solutions to facilitating resource availability.
Correspondence: T. R. DeGregori, University of Houston, College of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, University Park, Houston, TX 77004. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40614 Harrison, Paul. Beyond the blame-game: population-environment links. Populi, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1990. 14-21 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"To combat environmental problems, the author recommends a holistic approach: population programmes plus measures with more immediate impact, such as changes in lifestyle and consumption, land reform, and reduction of rural poverty."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40615 Koizumi, Akira. Aging and population-carrying capacity. In: An aging world: dilemmas and challenges for law and social policy, edited by John M. Eekelaar and David Pearl. 1989. 99-103 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England; Nihon Kajo Publishing: Japan. In Eng.
The interrelationships among demographic aging, life expectancy, and fertility and their impact on the carrying capacity of Japan are discussed.
Correspondence: A. Koizumi, Showa University, School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40616 Smil, Vaclav. Planetary warming: realities and responses. Population and Development Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, Mar 1990. 1-29, 206-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Appreciation of basic realities and possible implications of planetary warming driven by accumulation of greenhouse gases should be part of any well-founded appraisal of civilization's prospects for the next century. This review...outlines risks and benefits of planetary warming, and reviews policy options, their chances for adoption, and desirabilities....A global strategy to counter planetary warming would combine major population growth cuts in large poor countries with major reductions of resource consumption in the richest nations."
Correspondence: V. Smil, University of Manitoba, Department of Geography, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40617 Tickell, Crispin. Human effects of climate change. Populi, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1990. 5-13 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author reviews the effects of global climatic changes and pollution and projects that the number of "environmental refugees...could reach [400 million] by the year 2020. To mitigate the effects, a revolution in human society as significant as the Industrial Revolution may be required....[The author] urges conclusion of an international climate convention and calls on industrialized countries to take the lead in corrective action."
Correspondence: C. Tickell, United Kingdom Delegation, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40618 United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment (Washington, D.C.). The global food and population equation: a fragile balance. Serial F, Pub. Order No. 20-481. Aug 1989. v, 48 pp. U.S. Government Printing Office: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a report of the global food and population situation, approved by the Subcommittee on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment for the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. It is based on three days of hearings held in February 1989 on the prospects of future food production meeting the needs of global population growth. "While some witnesses professed optimism that the world can meet future food needs, all agreed that the challenge is an extremely difficult and important one, whose successful resolution depends both upon declines in population growth as well as increases in food production. The experts also agreed that the natural resource base upon which futher agricultural productivity depends is itself in jeopardy, threatened by environmental degradation fueled by rapid population growth and the use of unsustainable agricultural technologies."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40619 Weber, Adolf. The agricultural carrying capacity of the earth. [Agrare Tragfahigkeit der Erde.] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 76-96 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The agricultural carrying capacity of the earth is analyzed on a country-by-country basis. The results are then compared with the projected stationary population in each country.
Correspondence: A. Weber, Christian-Albrechts Universitat zu Kiel, Institut fur Agrarpolitik und Marktlehre, Neue Universitat, Olshausenstrasse 40, 2300 Kiel, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

56:40620 Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]. Centro de Documentacion en Poblacion y Desarrollo [CENDOP] (La Paz, Bolivia). Population and employment in Bolivia (an annotated bibliography). [Poblacion y empleo en Bolivia (bibliografia anotada).] Informacion sobre Poblacion, Vol. 5, 1989. 414 pp. La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
This annotated bibliography covers population and employment in Bolivia. It consists of some 500 citations to the literature, most of which are in Spanish and were published after 1970. There are 11 indexes, including authors and institutions, titles, acronyms, projects, conferences, geography, series, and subject.
Correspondence: Consejo National de Poblacion, Avenida Acre 2147, Casilla 686, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40621 Efimkin, M. M. The Siberian labor force from the late 1950s to the mid-1980s. [Rabochie Sibiri konets 50-x--seredina 80-x godov.] ISBN 5-02-029373-3. 1990. 220 pp. Nauka, Sibirskoe Otdelenie: Novosibirsk, USSR; Akademiya Nauk SSSR, Sibirskoe Otdelenie, Institut Istorii, Filologii i Filosofii: Novosibirsk, USSR. In Rus.
The author examines the causes and forms of the reproduction of the working class in Siberia, the USSR. Sections are included on class and social factors; the impact of various types of employment, education, and military training; and the material well-being of the working class.
Correspondence: Nauka, Sibirskoe Otdelenie, U1. Sovetskaya 18, 630099 Novosibirsk, Russian RSFSR, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:40622 Elias, Peter; Thomas, Wayne. Population projections and the labour force: supply and demand effects. In: Population projections: trends, methods and uses, by the British Society for Population Studies. 1990. 43-53 pp. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the role of the population projections in the development of forecasts of employment and unemployment. In particular, the relationships between employment, unemployment and the population of working age embodied within three major macroeconomic models are presented, together with a review of recent evidence concerning the nature and stability of these relationships. The paper concludes with a critical review of the procedures developed at the Institute for Employment Research [in England] for linking employment and population forecasts." The geographical focus is on the United Kingdom.
Correspondence: P. Elias, University of Warwick, Institute for Employment Research, Coventry CV4 7AL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40623 Flaim, Paul O. Population changes, the baby boom, and the unemployment rate. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 113, No. 8, Aug 1990. 3-10 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The aging of the U.S. baby-boom generation and its impact on the decline of the unemployment rate during the 1980s are discussed. The author considers "the effect that population changes might have on other key indicators of labor market activity, such as the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio." Included is a decennial analysis of unemployment and labor force participation by sex and age for the period 1959-1989.
Correspondence: P. O. Flaim, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Division of Labor Force Statistics, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

56:40624 Kadi, A. S. Demographic analysis of economically active population: differentials between developed and less developed countries. In: Population transition in India, Volume 2, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 43-53 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
Using data from the 1984 U.N. Demographic Year Book, the author compares age and sex distributions, marital status, occupational status, and employment status of the economically active population in developed and developing countries.
Correspondence: A. S. Kadi, Karnataka University, Department of Statistics, Dharwad, Karnataka 580 003, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40625 Karcheva, A. T.; Nikitenko, V. V. Pendulum migration and the balance of labor resources of the middle town (the example of Belaya Tserkov). [Mayatnikovaya migratsiya i balans trudovykh resursov srednego goroda (na primere Beloi Tserkvi).] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 13, 1989. 75-86 pp. Kiev, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The authors discuss methods of improving the use of labor resources in mid-sized towns in the USSR. "A procedure and results of the investigation of the pendulum migration in the town of Belaya Tserkov are described."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40626 Lloyd, M.; Fergusson, D. M.; Horwood, L. J. A longitudinal study of maternal participation in the full-time workforce: Part II: exit from the full-time workforce. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, May 1990. 39-52 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"The duration of full-time employment was studied for a sample of 385 women [in Christchurch, New Zealand] who entered full-time work within ten years of childbirth. The analysis suggested that for the majority of women, length of full-time employment was relatively short and that just under 80% of women had withdrawn from full-time work within five years of entering such employment....It is argued that a critical factor in determining maternal attachment to the workforce was that for the majority of women participation in the paid workforce was a matter of choice rather than economic necessity."
For Part I of this study, published by the same author in 1989, see 56:30665.
Correspondence: M. Lloyd, Christchurch School of Medicine, Department of Paediatrics, Christchurch Child Development Study, Christchurch, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40627 Meusburger, Peter. The educational level of the labor force in relation to the size of the communes where the jobs are located. [Das Ausbildungsniveau der osterreichischen Arbeitsbevolkerung im Jahre 1981 nach der Gemeindegrosse des Arbeitsortes.] Osterreich in Geschichte und Literatur, Vol. 32, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1988. 31-54 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
The relationship between the educational status of the labor force in Austria and the size of the communes in which their jobs are located is explored. In general, the higher-status jobs are located in the larger cities and the lower-status jobs in smaller cities and communes. The degree of spatial concentration for jobs requiring university degrees and the steepness of the decline in the percentage of university graduates between center and periphery vary considerably by economic activity. Data are from official Austrian sources.
Correspondence: P. Meusburger, Universitat Heidelberg, Geographisches Institut, Im Neuenheimer Feld 348, Postfach 105760, 6900 Heidelberg 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40628 Pedrero Nieto, Mercedes. Trends in female economic participation in the 1980s. [Evolucion de la participacion economica femenina en los ochenta.] Revista Mexicana de Sociologia, Vol. 52, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 133-49 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author analyzes trends in female labor force participation by age in Mexico during the period 1978-1987, using data for Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara. Aspects considered include the increase in the number of employed married women, changes in type of occupational activity, and changes in the motivations for women seeking employment, especially changes due to the need for additional household income.
Correspondence: M. Pedrero Nieto, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinarias, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40629 Pissarides, Christopher A. Unemployment consequences of an aging population: an application of insider-outsider theory. European Economic Review, Vol. 33, No. 2-3, Mar 1989. 355-66 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
Some aspects of the impact of demographic aging on unemployment in developed countries are explored, with particular reference to the way different age groups are treated in labor union utility functions. The author develops an equilibrium model of a decentralized but completely unionized economy in which unions tend to attach greater weight to older than to younger workers' wishes.
Correspondence: C. A. Pissarides, University of London, London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:40630 Puur, Allan. Female labour force participation in Estonia. Rahvastiku-Uuringud/Population Studies, No. 8, 1989. 19, [9] pp. Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre: Tallinn, USSR. In Eng.
"The present paper gives an overview of the FLFP [female labor force participation] development in Estonia during the 20th century. In the paper available data sources, trends in activity rates and in the length of working-life, the evolution of woman's working role, the place of work in [the] female life-cycle, and the connections between FLFP and fertility are examined....[Data are from] censuses, vital statistics and 2 surveys."
Correspondence: Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 3012, 200090 Tallinn, Estonia, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40631 Stelcner, Morton; Kyriazis, Natalie. An analysis of the labour force behaviour of the elderly in Canada, 1980. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1990. 71-105 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This study investigates the labour force behaviour of elderly men and women in Canada using data from the 1981 census. In estimating the model of labour force participation, wage rates and labour supply (annual weeks and hours of work), the econometric technique uses the Heckman procedure to mitigate selection bias and incorporates the effects of the income tax system. The estimates show that, among those already working, there are small wage and income effects on labour supply. These economic factors, however, have strong influences on the labour force participation decision."
Correspondence: M. Stelcner, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve West, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40632 Stier, Haya; Tienda, Marta. Family, work and women: the labor supply of Hispanic immigrant wives. Population Research Center Discussion Paper Series, No. OSC 90-3 (PRC), Apr 1990. i, 23, [10] pp. University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center [NORC], Population Research Center: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"The paper focuses on the economic circumstances and the family arrangements that govern the labor supply of Hispanic immigrant wives in the United States....The analysis, based on a sample of Hispanic immigrant wives obtained from the 1980 U.S. Census, examines immigrant wives of Mexican, Puerto Rican and Other Hispanic origin, and compares their labor supply with that of native white wives. The findings indicate that immigrant women from all national origin groups are rational actors who take their earning potential into account when deciding whether to enter the paid labor force. Hispanic immigrant wives are unresponsive to intra-familial economic pressures, however, their economic activity, like that of native white wives, is constrained by their familial role as mothers. Our results suggest that policies that are aimed to improve the employability of married women must offer programs for child care that will permit women to leave home and market their skills."
This paper was originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 458).
Correspondence: National Opinion Research Center, Social Demography Group, Ogburn-Stouffer Center, 1155 E. 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40633 Young, Christabel. Balancing families and work: a demographic study of women's labour force participation. ISBN 0-644-11867-9. 1990. xii, 110 pp. Department of Employment, Education and Training: Canberra, Australia; Australian Government Publishing Service: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
The author "investigates the effect that substantial interruptions to labour force participation have on the career structures, job security, employment conditions, and financial independence of Australian women." The study is based on official population and labor force data. The primary focus is on absences from the labor force associated with having children and with the needs of retired husbands or elderly relatives.
Correspondence: AGPS Press, Australian Government Publishing Service, GPO Box 84, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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