Volume 56 - Number 3 - Fall 1990

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

56:30739 Batey, Peter W. J.; Rose, Adam Z. Extended input-output models: progress and potential. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 13, No. 1-2, 1990. 27-49 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This article presents a critical survey of research on extended input-output models, emphasizing recent developments in demographic-economic and socio-economic analysis. Basic principles of model design and construction are reviewed, by reference to a representative selection of extended models. Two research themes--labor market analysis and income distribution--are pursued in greater detail as examples of the directions of current work. A comparison is made between extended models and social accounting matrices."
Correspondence: P. W. J. Batey, University of Liverpool, Department of Civic Design, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

56:30740 Brown, Warren A.; Hirschl, Thomas A. How extension uses demographic information. Population and Development Program Working Paper Series, No. 1.04, 1989. 19 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"This paper reports findings from a survey of cooperative extension systems in 50 [U.S.] states plus Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The purpose of the survey is to determine how many systems have regular access to applied demographic programs, and what types of activities these programs are engaged in....The expressed purpose of the cooperative extension system is to develop programs which link the research and knowledge base of land-grant universities with society."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, Population and Development Program, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30741 Heitjan, Daniel F.; Rubin, Donald B. Inference from coarse data via multiple imputation with application to age heaping. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410, Jun 1990. 304-14 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Multiple imputation is applied to a demographic data set with coarse age measurements for Tanzanian children. The heaped ages are multiply imputed with plausible true ages using (a) a simple naive model and (b) a new, relatively complex model that relates true age to the observed values of heaped age, sex, and anthropometric variables. The imputed true ages are used to create valid inferences under the models and compare inferences across models, thereby revealing sensitivity of inferences to prior specifications, from naive to complex. In addition, diagnostic analyses applied to the imputed data are used to suggest which models appear most appropriate....It is concluded that knowledge of the interval widths and heaping process sharpens valid inferences from data of this kind, and that given a specified process, simple and easily programmed multiple-imputation methods can lead to valid inferences."
Correspondence: D. F. Heitjan, Pennsylvania State University, College of Medicine, Center for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Hershey, PA 17033. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:30742 Huttly, Sharon R. A.; Barros, Fernando C.; Victora, Cesar G.; Beria, Jorge U.; Vaughan, J. Patrick. Do mothers overestimate breast feeding duration? An example of recall bias from a study in southern Brazil. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 132, No. 3, Sep 1990. 572-5 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The problem of recall bias when reporting breast feeding duration is investigated. Data are presented from the follow-up of over 1,000 children from a birth cohort (1982) in southern Brazil....Women who were richer and/or better educated were significantly more likely to report longer durations, while those poorer and less educated did not tend to misclassify more in one direction than in the other."
Correspondence: S. R. A. Huttly, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Departamento de Medicina Social, Pelotas, RS, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:30743 Mitra, S. Some ways of incorporating both sexes in models that become stable. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 2, Dec 1989. 71-81 pp. Kerala, India. In Eng.
The author presents "four models of birth trajectories in which the female age-specific fertility rates have been assumed to depend on the relative age compositions of both sexes. In each case, the rates fluctuate but approach their limiting values and the age compositions become stable."
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University, Department of Sociology, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30744 Nath, D. C.; Kalita, P. A two-sex quasi-stable population in the presence of immigration. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 463-81 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this paper we have developed a two-sex model with the effect of migration under the conditions of changing fertility and mortality over time. It is shown that the results have been the same as those obtained by [others]...for the one-sex model. Later, we have derived the computational techniques of the intrinsic growth rates and birth rates of males and females separately and shown that a combination (weighted average) of the male and female rates give rise to the common intrinsic growth rate and birth rate."
Correspondence: D. C. Nath, Gauhati University, Department of Statistics, Gauhati 781 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30745 Suchindran, C. M. Heterogeneous risk models. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jun 1989. 1-19 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper briefly reviews the heterogeneous risk models in demography. With a specific model, it is shown that in a heterogeneous population, the marginal hazard need not be monotonic. Procedures described in the literature to recover individual hazards from marginal hazards without precise knowledge of structural parameters can lead to biased results. Strategies of parameter estimation and testing are discussed. The results are extended to [the] multistate life table."
Correspondence: C. M. Suchindran, University of North Carolina, Department of Biostatistics, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30746 van Imhoff, Evert. The exponential multidimensional demographic projection model. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1990. 171-82 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper presents the multidimensional demographic projection on the basis of an exponential specification, which avoids the problems associated with the widely used specification on the basis of the linear integration hypothesis. It generalizes earlier work by Gill (1986) on Markov models for closed populations to include the case of open populations. A numerical illustration is also provided."
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30747 Wilmoth, John R. Fitting three-way models to two-way arrays of demographic rates. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 89-140, Apr 1989. 20 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"In another paper...we have suggested that [a] general model...may be a useful means of depicting the structure of a large array of age-specific demographic rates. In this report we provide certain technical details necessary for the successful application of this model. We also give supporting evidence for its properties under a least-squares fit, which are merely asserted but not proven in the other paper, and discuss the possibilities for alternative fitting procedures to ordinary least squares (OLS)....We begin by discussing the problem of re-expression, followed by two large sections which outline fitting routines in the OLS and non-OLS frameworks, respectively. In a final section we discuss possibilities for application of the model to aggregated data."
For the earlier article by the author, also published in 1989, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30748 Wilmoth, John R. Variation in vital rates by age, period, and cohort. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 89-141, Apr 1989. 40 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The analysis of age-specific vital rates is studied in this paper, with special attention given to the problem of decomposing an array of rates into factors related to age, period, and cohort....[The author focuses] on the age and period dimensions and [derives] an initial description of the matrix structure with regard to changes...in those two directions. This two-dimensional description is then augmented by a consideration of residual patterns which seem clearly linked to cohorts. The empirical section of the paper describes in great detail the structure of an array of mortality rates for French males ages 0-89 over the years 1946-1981."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, pp. 375-6).
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30749 Yadava, K. N. S.; Singh, S. K.; Kumar, U. A probability model for the number of migrants. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 2, Dec 1989. 83-92 pp. Kerala, India. In Eng.
The authors present a probability model to describe the pattern of dependent migrants per rural household in India. It is based on a compound distribution and is tested on the distribution of households according to the number of migrants.
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Centre of Population Studies, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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