F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

56:30192 Acsadi, George T. F.; Johnson-Acsadi, Gwendolyn; Bulatao, Rodolfo A. Population growth and reproduction in Sub-Saharan Africa: technical analyses of fertility and its consequences. ISBN 0-8213-1397-5. LC 89-21470. 1990. x, 251 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This volume contains papers by various authors commissioned by the World Bank in 1984 concerning population growth and fertility patterns in Sub-Saharan Africa. "The volume begins with information on demographic conditions in the region....In part II, the economic consequences of population growth are viewed from the perspectives of agriculture, household energy, resources...employment, [and urbanization]....Part III contains analyses of the impact of reproductive patterns upon the health of women and young children and of the region's high fertility upon the family and its resources. Part IV deals with the main component of rapid population growth, very high fertility....analyses of the proximate determinants of fertility, how they operate within Sub-Saharan African cultures, the constraints enforced by culture and tradition, and the causes and consequences of the high demand for children and low demand for contraception. Part V traces the changes during the past decade in the way Sub-Saharan government leaders and scholars view population policy and development, and specifically the control of population growth and organized family planning." Data are from World Fertility Surveys and other official sources.
Correspondence: World Bank, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Publications Department, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30193 Adioetomo, Sri Moertiningsih; Kitting, Ayke S.; Taufik, Salman. Fertility transition in Indonesia, trends in proximate determinants of fertility, based on the 1987 NICPS/DHS. Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 16, No. 32, Dec 1989. viii, 49-87 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng. with sum. in Ind.
The authors "estimate proximate determinants of fertility in Indonesia from the 1987 National Indonesia Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (1987 NICPS). For Java and Bali, the results will be compared to the 1976 Indonesia Fertility Survey's estimates of proximate determinants [to]....provide a better understanding of the causes of fertility decline in Java-Bali during 1976-1987." A theoretical model is used to estimate biological and behavioral proximate determinants of fertility, including marriage and divorce, infertility, postpartum amenorrhea, contraceptive use, induced abortion, fecundability and coital frequency, and fetal death.
Correspondence: S. M. Adioetomo, Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Lembaga Demografi Fakultas, Salemba 4, Jakarta, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30194 Agrawal, Pratibha; Srivastava, O. P. Effect of shift in marriage age on number of children. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jun 1989. 53-7 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"The distribution of duration of n conceptions is obtained where fecundability is taken as a function of age and parity. The expected number of children in [the] total reproductive span of a woman is obtained as a function of marriage age and the effect of shift in marriage age is studied for a noncontraceptive population."
Correspondence: P. Agrawal, Osmania University, Statistics Department, Hyderabad 500 007, Andhra Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30195 Arias de Blois, Jorge. Age of woman at first marriage and at birth of the first child. [Edad de la mujer al primer matrimonio y al nacimiento del primer hijo.] DHS Further Analysis Series, No. 9, Apr 1990. vi, 65 pp. Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Instituto de Investigaciones: Guatemala City, Guatemala; Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"Recognizing the demographic significance of the woman's age at first marriage or union and age at birth of the first child in the establishment of fertility levels, the information derived from [Guatemala's] Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno-Infantil 1987 was utilized to analyze both variables. Median age was analyzed by ethnic group, residence, education, marital status, and characteristics related to the work force. In all of these aspects, consistent differences were found. In addition, life tables were calculated for both events, applying the Coale model and utilizing the program NUPTIAL....The model adequately describes the behavior of the ladino and Indian populations separately, thus indicating the generalizeability of the model. Finally, demographic impact on the level of fertility of both age groups was determined and calculations made of the interbirth interval."
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30196 Arora, Y. L.; Singh, Padam. Conditions of fertility decline in India through path analysis. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 353-6 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The present study has been undertaken to assess the conditions of fertility decline [in India] and to disentangle the effects of family planning efforts and developmental efforts and [social and economic] developmental efforts, in reducing the fertility level."
Correspondence: Y. L. Arora, Indian Council of Medical Research, Institute for Research in Medical Statistics, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30197 Bailey, Mohamed. Female education and fertility in rural Sierra Leone: a test of the threshold hypothesis. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1989. 87-112 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This study tests the female education threshold hypothesis, which posits that there is a critical level of educational attainment beyond which fertility begins to decline from traditional high levels. Using data from a sample of currently married women of childbearing ages 15-49 in rural Sierra Leone, non linear regression analyses reveal a threshold value of six years of schooling for rural women. Women below and above the threshold value exhibit the expected positive and negative coefficients on fertility respectively. Although the coefficients are not statistically significant at the five per cent level, they are consistent for broad age groups 15-24, 25-34, and 35-49, which shows that the observed results are not an artifact of inter-cohort differences."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30198 Barmby, T.; Cigno, A. A sequential probability model of fertility patterns. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1990. 31-51 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The present paper analyses the fertility histories of a sample of women within a stochastic framework. Recognising the sequential nature of reproductive decisions, the probability that a birth will occur at any given date is related to the realisations of past decisions and to all new information accrued since the last decision date, as well as to the characteristics of the potential mother. Time series are combined with survey data [from Great Britain] to provide information about the changing economic environment facing all women in the sample. The results of the analysis show the effects of wage rates, child benefits and various personal characteristics on birth probability profiles. The conclusions of the econometric analysis are related to existing theory and to the results of other empirical studies of the economic factors affecting the timing and spacing of births."
Correspondence: T. Barmby, Loughborough University of Technology, Department of Economics, Loughborough, Leicestershire LE11 3TU, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30199 Becker, Gary S.; Barro, Robert J. A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 103, No. 1, Feb 1988. 1-25 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper develops an economic analysis of the linkages in fertility rates and capital accumulation across generations. It considers the determination of fertility and capital accumulation in each generation when wage rates and interest rates are parameters to each family and to open economies....Our model is based on the assumption that parents are altruistic toward their children....Section II sets out the model of altruism toward children and derives the budget constraint and utility function of a dynastic family....Section III applies the model to the Great Depression and World War II....Section IV considers the effects on fertility of child mortality, subsidies to (or taxes on) children, and social security and other transfer payments to adults....Section V considers fertility and population growth in economies fully linked to an international capital market but not to an international labor market....Section VI extends the analysis to include life-cycle variations in consumption, earnings, and utility."
Correspondence: G. S. Becker, University of Chicago, National Opinion Research Center, 1155 East 60th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

56:30200 Behrman, Jere R.; Taubman, Paul. A comparison and latent variable test of two fertile ideas. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1990. 19-30 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
A test is constructed to distinguish between the Becker and the Easterlin models of the economics of fertility. Both suggest possible biases due to unobserved variables. It is demonstrated that "while the Becker endowment and Easterlin taste models can be expressed in terms of the same variables, it is possible to identify each of the models because of different signs in a latent variable system that uses information from individuals, siblings, and cousins. Estimates of this model are consistent with the Easterlin, but not the Becker formulation. But neither model results in significant income coefficient estimates." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: J. R. Behrman, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30201 Bhattacharya, B. N.; Singh, K. K.; Singh, Uttam; Pandey, C. M. Model for birth intervals and traditional factors. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 381-99 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"A probability model to describe the length of interval between successive live births in [traditional societies] has been proposed. It is an extension of the model proposed in Bhattacharya et al...by introducing intra-uterine mortality and a distribution for the non-susceptible period. The model is applied to the data taken from [a 1978 survey of a rural population in India]....Possible modifications in the model suitable for various situations where the practice of post-partum taboos on sexual intercourse exist are also indicated."
For the article by Bhattacharya et al., published in 1988, see 55:20709.
Correspondence: B. N. Bhattacharya, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 Barrackpore Trunk Road, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30202 Birg, H.; Filip, D.; Flothmann, E.-J. Parity-specific cohort analysis of reproductive behavior in the Federal Republic of Germany after World War II. [Paritatsspezifische Kohortenanalyse des generativen Verhaltens in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland nach dem 2. Weltkrieg.] IBS-Materialien, No. 30, ISBN 3-923340-23-0. 1990. 326 pp. Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik: Bielefeld, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Results are presented from a cohort analysis of fertility in the Federal Republic of Germany. The data are analyzed by mother's age, mother's year of birth, birth order of the child, and parity. The study is based on official statistics and on a 1986 research project that surveyed 1,576 persons born in 1950 and 1955. Findings concerning parity-specific birth probabilities are discussed in light of the biographical theory of fertility. Extensive tables and charts are included.
Correspondence: Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Universitatsstrasse, Postfach 8640, D-4800 Bielefeld 1, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30203 Blossfeld, Hans-Peter; Huinink, Johannes. The improvement of women's educational and occupational opportunities and its influence on the process of family formation: a longitudinal study of developments in the Federal Republic of Germany since the end of World War II. [Die Verbesserung der Bildungs- und Berufschancen von Frauen und ihr Einfluss auf den Prozess der Familienbildung: eine Langsschnittuntersuchung uber die Entwicklung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland seit dem Ende des Zweiten Weltkriegs.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 15, No. 4, 1989. 383-404 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"In this contribution, some propositions of the economic theory of family formation concerning the relationship between education, occupational career, marriage, and [fertility] for women are tested using data [for West Germany from a longitudinal study conducted since the end of World War II]. Higher education has a delaying effect on age at marriage which is mainly due to the longer duration of the educational career....With regard to first birth, women with higher education accelerate the family formation process after leaving the educational system. On the other hand, in accordance with the economic theory, we find evidence that success in the occupational career leads to a delay or even [permanent avoidance of childbearing]."
Correspondence: H.-P. Blossfeld, European University Institute, Department of Political Social Sciences, Badia Fiesolana, Via dei Roccettini 5, 50016 San Domenico di Fiesole, Florence, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30204 Bravo, Jorge H. The geographical distribution of fertility around Mecxico City. [La distribucion geografica de la fecundidad alrededor de la ciudad de Mexico.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 17, No. 48, Dec 1989. 11-34 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"A spatial analysis of fertility around Mexico City reveals an 'inverted U' pattern which appears, on the face of it, inconsistent with both conventional economic location analysis and a spatial diffusion process. A closer examination of the problem implies that economic variables, when integrated in a proper model, may account for the observed cross-sectional spatial pattern, whereas pure diffusion can not. Spatial diffusion, however, may be responsible at least in part for the observed fertility changes over time. The geographical patterns of fertility in two states neighbouring Mexico City (Mexico and Hidalgo) are examined empirically. The interpretation of the non-monotonic distance effect is that there are significant locational advantages to childrearing at medium distances that are not enjoyed by households located either very close or far away from the city."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30205 Canova, Eliska. Seasonal movement of birth in the pre-statistical period. [Sezonni pohyb narozeni v predstatistickem obdobi.] Demografie, Vol. 32, No. 1, 1990. 41-4 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The seasonality of births in the parish of Broumov, Czechoslovakia, is examined for two periods, 1670-1689 and 1750-1769. Findings indicate that the highest number of conceptions occurred in June. The results are compared with those from similar research carried out in France.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30206 Chaudhry, Mahinder D. Fertility behaviour in India, 1961-86: the stalled decline in the crude birth rate. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 89-104 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The objective of the paper is to analyse the fertility behaviour in India over the last 25 years, 1961-86. Within the analytical framework of the biosocial proximate determinants the observed decline in the crude birth rate (CBR) is examined. In particular, the focus is upon the stalled decline in the CBR since the mid-1970s. The analytical tool employed is the Standardisation Approach, alternatively referred to as the Composition Model, a subset of the broader biosocial framework. The entire period of study is divided into five five-year intervals."
Correspondence: M. D. Chaudhry, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario K7K 5LO, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30207 Chen, Jain-Shing A.; Hicks, W. Whitney; Johnson, S. R.; Rodriguez, Raymundo C. Economic development, contraception and fertility decline in Mexico. Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 26, No. 3, Apr 1990. 408-24 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In recent years the observed rate of population growth in Mexico has shown evidence of decline from previous high levels. This decline in fertility has been linked to a shift from 'natural fertility' to deliberate family size limitation. This article utilises a choice theory based on a three-equation simultaneous model to analyse determinants of contraception, desired number of children and fertility. Information for the empirical application is from the 1976 Mexican Fertility Survey. The results show that a simultaneous choice model predicts the consequences of modernisation on human fertility and suggests ways that modernisation affects fertility by proximate or intermediate variables."
Correspondence: W. Whitney Hicks, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:30208 Chen, Wei. An analysis of major proximate determinants of fertility in China. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 3, Sep 1989. 14-23 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
"An in-depth fertility sampling survey which was similar to the pattern of the World Fertility Survey was conducted in 1985 in the Shaanxi and Hebei provinces and Shanghai Municipality [in China]. The survey has provided abundant data about fertility, marriage, contraception and breastfeeding, enabling us to use the newly-developed Bongaarts model to analyse the relations between fertility level and the major proximate determinants in these three places."
Correspondence: W. Chen, Institute of Population Research, People's University of China, 39 Haidian Road, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30209 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile); Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA] (Ottawa, Canada). The fertility transition in Chile: an analysis by socioeconomic group and geographic area, 1950-1985. [La transicion de la fecundidad en Chile: un analisis por grupos socioeconomicos y areas geograficas, 1950-1985.] Fasciculo F/CHI, No. 7, 1989. 260 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Fertility trends in Chile over the period 1950-1985 are analyzed using data from both census and vital statistics sources. Chapters are included on geographical differences in fertility, fertility differentials by mother's education, and fertility differentials by social class and occupation.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30210 China. State Statistical Bureau. Population Division. A preliminary report on the second phase of an in-depth fertility survey in China. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 3, Sep 1989. 31-47 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
This is a preliminary report on the second phase of an in-depth fertility survey conducted in China in April 1987. It includes data for age-specific fertility and nuptiality, age at marriage, family size, infant mortality, and a cohort analysis of age at first birth.
For a continuation of this report, see elsewhere in this issue; for Phase I, see 53:20826, 20827, and 20828.
Correspondence: State Statistical Bureau, Population Division, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30211 Congdon, Peter. Graduation of fertility schedules: an analysis of fertility patterns in London in the 1980s and an application to fertility forecasts. Regional Studies, Vol. 24, No. 4, Aug 1990. 311-26 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"The fitting of a parametric function to fertility in the London boroughs is described, together with an application at the Greater London level to fertility forecasting. There are wide contrasts between boroughs in the level of fertility (the total fertility rate) and in the timing of fertility over the reproductive span, as revealed by the most common and average ages of birth and by the extent of dispersion around the average. These differences are shown to be related to the social and ethnic composition of boroughs, and to different levels of female work participation. Over time there is evidence that cyclical fluctuations rather than secular trends are dominant....In particular, relative cohort size and female job opportunities are found to influence fertility changes over time."
Correspondence: P. Congdon, London Research Centre, Population and Statistics, Parliament House, 81 Black Prince Road, London SE1 7SZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

56:30212 Conway, Dennis. Rural family enterprises, fertility and rural migration relationships in Latin America. PIRT Working Paper, No. 6, Dec 16, 1987. 23 pp. Indiana University, Population Institute for Research and Training [PIRT]: Bloomington, Indiana. In Eng.
"In this paper a schema is presented which relates rural farm enterprises, fertility and rural migration interactions. Stressing the importance of differential impacts on rural fertility of rural migration behavior of individuals and households the schema is incorporated into a classification of Latin American social class structure. Particular note is made of the contrasting relationships between rural household mobility, and rural residence effects on fertility decline and between individual migrations of members, rural household immobility and fertility maintenance. Although other processes are likely to influence rural fertility norms, this portrayal of the overlooked relations between rural-to-rural migration, farm enterprises and fertility is forwarded as a blueprint for future theoretical research in a specific societal context, with the understanding that similar schemas will need to be developed for other social systems."
Correspondence: Indiana University, Population Institute for Research and Training, Memorial Hall East 220, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30213 Cornwell, Gretchen T.; Chou, Bi-her. Work and fertility in the context of Chinese family structure. Population Issues Research Center Working Paper, No. 1989-17, Oct 1989. 15, [6] pp. Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"This study examines the relationship between female labor force participation and fertility in Taiwan, incorporating women's work-related satisfaction and commitment into the opportunity costs/role incompatability framework. We posit that the work-fertility association may be conditioned by the family context in which it occurs. Multivariate techniques (OLS) are used to examine data collected in face-to-face interviews with 800 currently married women living in Taipei and its surrounds in 1985. Work-related factors are found to be more important for the expected completed fertility of women living continuously in nuclear households as compared with women who have [experienced] living in extended households, either continuously or in the period immediately after marriage. The implications of these findings are discussed."
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Institute for Policy Research and Evaluation, Population Issues Research Center, 22 Burrowes Building, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30214 Das, N. P. A model to study the effects of sex preference and mortality on current fertility. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 327-40 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The present paper proposes a probability model to estimate the effect of sex preference and child mortality on current fertility, so as to measure the impact of allowing couples to attain the minimum number of living children of each sex on the current fertility of a population. For illustration, the model is applied to Indian data. The results regarding the effect of sex preference on fertility are basically consistent with those of the earlier work of the author where mortality among children born was not considered. The results indicate that sex preference does affect current fertility. For any given size of family, the expected total fertility rate or the birth rate of a population increases with increasing preference for one sex over the other."
For related studies, published by the same author in 1987, see 54:40217 and 54:10246.
Correspondence: N. P. Das, Population Research Centre, Faculty of Science, Lokmanya Tilak Road, Baroda 390 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30215 Dumont, Gerard-Francois; Descroix, Pierre. The uniqueness of demographic trends in France: the measurement of excess fertility in France in comparison to other industrialized countries with early low fertility in the period 1963-1986. [La specificite du comportement demographique de la France: mesure de la surfecondite relative de la France par rapport aux autres pays industriels a faible fecondite precoce de 1963 a 1986.] Histoire, Economie et Societe, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1988. 419-32 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Trends in fertility in France and in a group of 12 developed Western countries are compared for the period 1960-1986. The authors conclude that if France had conformed to the average fertility trends of this group of countries, the number of births recorded in this period would have been 10 percent lower. Reasons for the higher fertility experienced by France are considered.
Correspondence: G.-F. Dumont, 16 rue de Lorraine, 78100 Saint Germain-en-Laye, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30216 Ermisch, John. European women's employment and fertility again. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1990. 3-18 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author examines questions concerning women's employment and fertility in Europe and considers the implications of relevant economic models "for differences in fertility and labour supply patterns between women and for econometric analysis....I review the main economic models...and explore what extensions to these models may be required. The review of models is limited to those which consider both fertility and employment decisions."
Correspondence: J. Ermisch, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3HE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30217 Fargues, Philippe. Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia: toward family limitation? [Algerie, Maroc, Tunisie: vers la famille restreinte?] Population et Societes, No. 248, Jul-Aug 1990. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Trends in fertility in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are briefly discussed. Consideration is given to the decrease in the average number of children born to a woman, fertility rates and educational status of women, female illiteracy rates, and fertility and petroleum exports in Algeria from 1981 to 1987.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30218 Foster, Andrew. Cohort analysis and demographic translation: a comparative study of recent trends in age-specific fertility rates from Europe and North America. Population Studies, Vol. 44, No. 2, Jul 1990. 287-315 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper the author proposes an alternative formulation of Ryder's equations of demographic translation by constructing a filter which relates period and cohort-based parametric fertility schedules. The resulting filter is used to study fertility data from eight countries in Europe and North America. The author concludes that although a cohort-based model can explain all but the short-run variations in period fertility, the resulting model would have to be quite complex. In particular, it would need to explain the observed tendency for changes in the tempo and spread of cohort fertility to lead changes in the quantum of cohort fertility by several years. An analysis of the spectral properties of the translation filter indicates that a period-based model could easily produce this pattern. The fact that the period-based model provides a more parsimonious description of the observed patterns sheds doubts on the predictive value of cohort-based models of fertility."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 53, No. 3, Fall 1987, p. 430).
Correspondence: A. Foster, University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6398. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30219 Fournier, Daniel. Why the revenge of the cradles? A hypothesis of sociability. [Pourquoi la revanche des berceaux? L'hypothese de la sociabilite.] Recherches Sociographiques, Vol. 30, No. 2, May-Aug 1989. 171-98, 331 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author examines the relatively high fertility of French Canadians living in Quebec. "Until the middle of the century, the French Canadians maintained a very high level of fertility for a population living in an industrial country. This phenomenon has been called the 'revenge of the cradles'. It has never been explained. The classical interpretations, based on the economy, religion or education, do not hold up to scientific examination....Instead, the 'overfertility' of French Canada appears to be a response to a certain type of sociability which is distinguished by the prevalence of extended family ties."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30220 Freedman, Ronald; Lee, Joseph. The fertility transition in Hong Kong: 1961-1987. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 89-159, Sep 1989. 13, [6] pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The fertility transition in Hong Kong is examined. "Between 1961 and 1987 the total fertility rate fell by 75 percent from an estimated 5,170 to a very low 1,271....A replacement-level total fertility rate of 2,120 was reached by 1979. The net reproduction rate, which reached 1.00 in 1979, had fallen to 0.61 by 1987." Consideration is given to changes in the crude birth rate and their determinants, including age distribution and nuptiality patterns.
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30221 Grasland, Claude. Demographic systems and supranational systems: European fertility from 1952 to 1982. [Systemes demographiques et systemes supranationaux: la fecondite europeenne de 1952 a 1982.] European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jul 1990. 163-91 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The analysis of fertility for 22 European countries and 8 Soviet Republics between 1952 and 1982 reveals different evolutionary models for socialist Eastern Europe and capitalist Western Europe. These models function as attractors (in the sense of fractal geometry) and suggest that demographic evolutions occur at a supranational level. Is it a matter of a bifurcation related to the geopolitical division established after 1945? Or should it rather be seen as a resurgence of the old historical division which cuts Europe into two parts along either side of a line from Trieste to Saint Petersberg?"
Correspondence: C. Grasland, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique 1243, Equipe P.A.R.I.S., 13 rue du Four, 75006 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30222 Greenhalgh, Susan. New directions in fertility research: anthropological perspectives. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 3, 1989. 437-49 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The author discusses the contributions anthropologists can make toward the understanding of fertility decline. She presents "an anthropological critique of demographic approaches to the demographic transition following it with suggestions for, and illustrations of, some new directions that might be taken in fertility research. A conclusion considers how a more anthropologically informed demography of fertility might be achieved."
Correspondence: S. Greenhalgh, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30223 Guest, Avery M. What can we learn about fertility transitions from the New York State census of 1865? Journal of Family History, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1990. 49-69 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
Fertility trends in 60 New York counties are examined using data on children ever born from the 1865 state census. "Aggregate variations in average children ever born and parity progression ratios across counties in New York...show that while some of the inter-areal variation is due to differences in age structure and marital status, social characteristics of the counties are also quite important. In particular, housing values or living standards strongly depress the probability of additional births....The present study also finds that the decision to have a first child (not to be childless) has some different areal correlates than the decision to proceed from a moderate to a large family; in particular, areal emphasis on schooling and Baptist religious affiliation are associated with high childlessness."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 469).
Correspondence: A. M. Guest, University of Washington, Department of Sociology, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30224 Gulati, S. C. Role of contraception and development factors in fertility transition in the Asian region: a cross-country analysis. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 161-72 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
Natural fertility trends from 1960-1965 to 1980-1985 in Asia are analyzed. Consideration is given to the effects of health, education, contraceptive use, socioeconomic status, urbanization, and women's status.
Correspondence: S. C. Gulati, Population Research Centre, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30225 Haines, Michael R. Western fertility in mid-transition: fertility and nuptiality in the United States and selected nations at the turn of the century. Journal of Family History, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1990. 23-48 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
Marriage patterns and fertility trends in the United States and Europe at the beginning of the twentieth century are analyzed and compared. "Estimates of age-specific fertility were made for the periods 1900-1910 and 1905-1910 for the whole United States and for whites, native whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Notable was the low marital fertility among young American women....Comparisons to data for selected European countries from this period suggest that this was uncommon, except in France. Measures of female nuptiality also reveal that the United States had earlier and more extensive marriage, again similar to France and unlike other Western European nations. The peculiar nature of both marital fertility and nuptiality in both the United States and France at the turn of the century is likely related to the extended period over which both nations experienced fertility declines during the nineteenth century."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, pp. 468-9).
Correspondence: M. R. Haines, Wayne State University, Department of Economics, Detroit, MI 48201. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30226 Heckman, James J.; Walker, James R. Estimating fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 410, Jun 1990. 283-94 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article tests assumptions invoked in the demographic literature to estimate the population distribution of fecundability from data on waiting times to first conception. In continuous time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of exponentials distribution. In discrete time, the key assumption is that waiting times are realizations from a mixture of geometrics distribution. The [U.S.] Hutterite data analyzed by Sheps (1965) are consistent with this assumption. Various models, however, have one representation in mixture of exponentials form. A fundamental identification problem plagues the conventional estimation procedure. Our analysis calls into question the conventional practice of checking model specification by using goodness-of-fit tests. The practical importance of the indentification problem in duration models is demonstrated."
Correspondence: J. J. Heckman, Yale University, Department of Economics, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:30227 Henriques, Maria H. F. T. Brazil: changes in nuptiality and their fertility implications. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 3, 1989. 163-74 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
In recent decades Brazil has undergone social, economic, and political changes and has experienced a decline in fertility levels. In light of these changes, the author examines alterations in nuptiality patterns and their impact on fertility levels. She examines age at initiation of intercourse, various types of unions including marriage and consensual unions, the duration of unions, and the socioeconomic, urban, and rural differentials among them. Data are from censuses, annual household surveys, and the 1986 demographic and health survey.
Correspondence: M. H. F. T. Henriques, Fordham University, Department of Sociology, Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30228 Hirosima, Kiyosi; Bando, Rieko. Fertility rates for male, female and total population of Japan: 1970-1987. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 45, No. 3, Oct 1989. 29-40 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Total fertility rates by sex for the Japanese population are presented for the period 1970-1987.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30229 Hirschman, Charles; Guest, Philip. Multilevel models of fertility determination in four Southeast Asian countries: 1970 and 1980. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 3, Aug 1990. 369-96 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies--Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women's status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility....The women's status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses."
Correspondence: C. Hirschman, University of Washington, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, DK-40, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30230 Hoem, Britta. Do all good things come in threes? Third births to Swedish women born in 1936-1950. [Alla goda ting ar tre? Tredjebarnsfodslar bland svenska kvinnor fodda 1936-50.] Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 59, ISBN 91-7820-046-6. Apr 1990. 134 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe. with sum. in Eng.
"This report presents the outcome of a demographic analysis of the determinants of third-birth rates to Swedish women born in 1936-50, mostly based on the data from the Swedish fertility survey of 1981. Our analysis reveals that on the individual level, traditional demographic variables such as the woman's own age and the ages of her first two children have had the strongest impacts on third birth rates." Additional findings are that third birth rates are greater for women with a higher educational level and that there are no direct negative effects from labor force participation to third births.
Correspondence: University of Stockholm, Section of Demography, Stockholm S-106 91, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30231 Horne, Amelia D.; El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil; Suchindran, Chirayath M. Statistical modeling of selected aspects of the childbearing process with application to World Fertility Survey countries. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1990. 183-207 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age-specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter-birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well-known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS [World Fertility Surveys conducted in developing] countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30232 Ishikawa, Akira. Age-specific fertility rates by live-birth order for Japanese females: 1988. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 45, No. 3, Oct 1989. 79-84 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Age-specific fertility rates by live birth order for Japanese women in 1988 are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30233 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Fertility tables for Japanese women: 1950-1988. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 263, Mar 1, 1990. 119 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Fertility tables for Japanese women are presented for the period 1950-1988. Data are included for age-specific fertility rates by birth order, total fertility rates, cohort fertility rates, parity, and birth probabilities by parity of women.
Correspondence: Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30234 Kapoor, P. N. Recent decline in birth rate in India and its relationship with contraceptive prevalence. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 105-19 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"Changes in the birth rate [from 1966 to 1986] at the all-India level and for the major states with population exceeding 4 million in the 1981 census...have been presented in this paper. The trend in percentage of couples effectively protected (CPR), as estimated from the services statistics, is related to the changes in the birth rate at the all-India and the state level for the period 1966 to 1986. The contribution of the changes in age-sex composition of the population and marital status of women in reproductive age groups towards decline in birth rate has also been examined."
Correspondence: P. N. Kapoor, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30235 Khan, Zubeda. Fertility histories: with and without restrictions--an analysis of PLM data. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 4, Winter 1988. 671-4 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"In this paper we will initially discuss the ways in which biased histories produce a biased sample of births. Later we will evaluate the effects of the restrictions by using the fertility data from the Population Labour Force and Migration (PLM) Survey. This data contains detailed reproductive histories of 9,416 currently married women....There are two distinct issues in this regard. The first is the extent to which the selection of the last closed and open interval leads to biased estimates of the duration of breast-feeding and the levels of contraceptive use. The second is whether such restrictions bias the findings regarding the structure of relationships between the variables of interest."
Correspondence: Z. Khan, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30236 Kiani, M. Framurz K.; Nazli, Samina. Dynamics of birth spacing in Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 4, Winter 1988. 655-7 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
Recent changes in birth spacing in Pakistan and differentials according to marriage age, urban or rural residence, educational and employment status, and contraceptive use are examined. Data are from a 1979-1980 survey.
Correspondence: M. F. K. Kiani, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30237 Kravdal, Oystein. Who has a third child in contemporary Norway? A register-based examination of sociodemographic determinants. Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 90/6, ISBN 82-537-2919-7. 1990. 98 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng.
"Trends and variations in third birth probabilities from the mid-1960s to the mid-1980s are examined with individual life histories from the Central Population Register of Norway and information from the Population Censuses of 1960, 1970 and 1980. During the late 1960s and most of the 1970s it became gradually more common to stop childbearing after the second birth, but the decline in third birth probabilities came to a halt at the end of the 1970s....Place of residence, the mother's age at second birth, and the interval between first and second child are strong determinants of third birth probabilities."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 Dep., Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30238 Krishnamoorthy, S. Estimation of fertility of parents' generation from data on surviving siblings. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 319-25 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author develops a model using data on surviving siblings to estimate the fertility of the parents' generation. The method is applied to a sample of men from a village in India to estimate the fertility of women born in 1919.
Correspondence: S. Krishnamoorthy, Bharathiar University, Department of Population Studies, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu 641 046, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30239 Kritz, Mary M.; Gurak, Douglas T. Women's position, education and family formation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Program: 1989 Working Paper Series, No. 1.06, 1989. 17, [5] pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
Women's status and its relationship to fertility patterns in Sub-Saharan Africa are examined. The authors are concerned with traditional culture, spousal relations, female autonomy, marriage, age, sex preference, and women's educational status and with the impact of these factors on fertility and family size.
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30240 Krotki, Karol J. Why are the Canadians dying out? Population Research Laboratory Discussion Paper, No. 65, Apr 1990. 41 pp. University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
Fertility decline to below-replacement levels in Canada is discussed. Consideration is given to the decrease in proportion of the population ever married, the rise in age at first marriage, the increase in divorce, contraception and abortion, female labor force participation, and the effects of poverty and discrimination against women.
Correspondence: University of Alberta, Department of sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30241 Kurkiewicz, Jolanta. Modelling fertility changes in selected European countries. [Modele rozwoju plodnosci w wybranych krajach europejskich.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/97, 1989. 19-36 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Fertility changes for selected European countries are estimated using stochastic models. The author discusses the relationships between current and past fertility trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30242 Kurup, R. S. Reconciliation of family planning evaluation and fertility trend with special reference to Kerala. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 135-42 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper has...presented a model based on the proximate determinants of fertility. Empirical analysis of Indian and Kerala situations with approximate data has been made to show that it is possible to reconcile the fertility change due to family planning programme with the fertility rate obtained from independent sources like the sample registration scheme in India and the states."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30243 Lavely, William; Freedman, Ronald. The origins of the Chinese fertility decline. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 3, Aug 1990. 357-67 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale's m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun."
Correspondence: W. Lavely, University of Washington, Department of Sociology, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30244 Luther, Norman Y.; Feeney, Griffith; Zhang, Weimin. One-child families or a baby boom? Evidence from China's 1987 one-per-hundred survey. Population Studies, Vol. 44, No. 2, Jul 1990. 341-57 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"China's one-per-hundred population survey, conducted in mid-1987, provides the first nation-level data with which to study recent fertility change in China. Using a recently developed extension of the 'own-children' method of fertility estimation, period parity progression ratios are computed from the survey data....The level of fertility...rose by 13 per cent between 1985 and 1987, compared with an increase of eight per cent in conventional total fertility ratios. Nearly 90 per cent of the increase was due to rising levels of progression from first to second birth. There can be little doubt that this, in turn, was due to a relaxation in the one-child family policy. Overall levels of progression to births of higher orders have been declining since 1982, but the evidence suggests that this is so only because of stringent government efforts to control births of third and higher orders."
Correspondence: N. Y. Luther, Hawaii Pacific College, Department of Mathematics, Honolulu, HI 96813. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30245 Lutz, Wolfgang. Comparative analysis of completed parity distributions: a global WFS perspective. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 28, 1989. 25-57 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper studies completed parity distributions for all the industrialized and developing countries that participated in the World Fertility Survey (WFS). This is done by means of a table based on parity calculated for all ever-married women above age 40 by educational and residential sub-categories. The information is also used to compare mean family and mean sibship sizes and to study changes in the concentration of reproduction independent of the level of fertility. The cross-section of countries considered implies that, as fertility declines, the transition from high to low fertility is associated with an increase in the concentration--i.e., a smaller proportion of women having half the children. The big exception is China, where fertility declined steeply without an increase in concentration."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30246 McDaniel, Susan A. Reconceptualizing the nuptiality/fertility relationship in Canada in a new age. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 16, No. 2, 1989. 163-85 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper, the traditional demographic conceptualization of the nuptiality/fertility relationship is assessed, followed by a look at contemporary Canadian trends in nuptiality and fertility. In an attempt to work toward a reconceptualization of the relationship, one that may be more reflective of contemporary realities, recent research and theory from family sociology and from feminist sociology are reviewed. The basic parameters of a theoretically reconceptualized nuptiality/fertility relationship are outlined, in the hope that a new model might eventually emerge."
Correspondence: S. A. McDaniel, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30247 Mukerji, S. On the myth of lower urban fertility in India and the controversy between programme and SRS birth rates. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 121-33 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The paper discusses two different topics, namely, the pattern of rural-urban fertility in India and its states; and why the crude birth rate (CBR) and couple protection rate (CPR) should not be compared....Fertility data from 1972 to 1984 indicate significant increase in urban fertility in ages below 30 years for all states of India. Also the share of urban areas in overall fertility has been increasing faster than the rate of urbanisation. In rural areas, between 1981 and 1984, the age-specific fertility rate had gone up significantly in 40-44 and 45-49 age groups in some states....It has been argued that straightforward comparison of couple protection rate...and crude birth rate...is not possible as the two indicators do not come from the same statistical population."
Correspondence: S. Mukerji, IIPS, Department of Mathematical Demography and Statistics, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30248 Nag, Moni. Alternative routes of fertility and mortality decline: a study of Kerala and Punjab. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 143-57 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author examines and compares fertility and mortality decline in the Indian states of Kerala and Punjab. Findings indicate that "good family planning and health facilities, their effective utilisation, and delayed age at marriage of women in Kerala and Punjab are the proximate variables that have contributed significantly towards a greater degree of their fertility and mortality decline than average India. Superiority in education, particularly among females...is found to be the most important determinant of changes in proximate variables leading to demographic decline in both Kerala and Punjab."
Correspondence: M. Nag, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30249 Nugent, Jeffrey B.; Anker, Richard. Old age support and fertility. Population and Labour Policies Programme Working Paper, No. 172, ISBN 92-2-107633-4. Jul 1990. vi, 104 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"The present working paper presents a detailed review of the relevant research literature along with theoretical models and arguments that support or refute the expected relationships between the old age security motive and fertility [in developing countries]. The present working paper also discusses in detail the reasons for our choice of case studies, methodologies to be used and types of information to be collected. The bibliography at the end of this working paper provides a comprehensive list of the relevant research publications." Countries chosen for case studies are Costa Rica, Thailand, and India.
Correspondence: International Labour Office Publications, 4 Route des Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30250 Ortiz, J.; Alcantara, E. Changes in Peruvian fertility. [Cambios en la fecundidad peruana.] 1988. 103 pp. Centro de Investigacion en Poblacion Cusco: Cusco, Peru; Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco: Cusco, Peru. In Spa.
The authors apply a model developed by Bongaarts to analyze fertility differentials in Peru from 1969 to 1978, using data from two surveys conducted in 1969-1970 and 1977-1978. The impact of selected intermediate variables is assessed. Aspects considered include national and regional fertility trends, women's educational level, and degree of urbanization.
Correspondence: Centro de Investigacion en Poblacion Cusco, Apartado Postal 354, Cusco, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30251 Pathak, K. B. Some approaches for estimating levels and tempo of fertility from the data on the current status of women. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 305-17 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this paper we present some approaches to [analyzing] data on open birth interval and open status of the currently married women in their reproductive ages in order to measure the level and pace of fertility [in India]."
Correspondence: K. B. Pathak, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30252 Poston, Dudley L. The fertility transition in the People's Republic of China. Population and Development Program: 1989 Working Paper Series, No. 1.11, 1989. 28 pp. Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology: Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
"In an attempt to gain a better understanding of the fertility transition in China, this paper will have two objectives: we will first review the empirical patterns of fertility in the country as a whole, and in its urban and rural parts, from 1949 to 1986, and will discuss these patterns and transitions in light of China's 'on-again-and-off-again' family planning policies. We will then turn to a cross-sectional investigation of Chinese fertility in 1981 among China's 2,300 counties. This latter part of the paper will enable us to appraise the extent to which socioeconomic factors may have played a role in accounting for variation in fertility in China."
Correspondence: Cornell University, Department of Rural Sociology, 134 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853-7801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30253 Ram, F.; Pathak, K. B. An application of life table approach to the analysis of fertility in India. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 341-52 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In the present study, the concept of life table has been used to study the family building process of women in India and the states. An attempt has been made to estimate parity progression ratios, average age of mother at first birth, last birth, parity distribution and effective reproductive span with the help of age-specific fertility rates." The results of a comparison among the Indian states indicates the relative effectiveness of various family planning strategies.
Correspondence: F. Ram, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30254 Richter, Kerry; Adlakha, Arjun. The effect of infant and child mortality on subsequent fertility. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jul 1989. 43-62, 117 pp. Nakhonpathom, Thailand. In Eng. with sum. in Tha.
"The focus of this study is the replacement behavior of individual couples who have experienced the death of a child, and the differences in the ability and/or motivation of families to replace children who have died. The hypothesis is that the replacement effect, a direct behavioral response to the death of a child, varies by such factors as socioeconomic status, use of contraception and parity. These differentials as well as cross-cultural variations are examined using World Fertility Survey Data from Colombia, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Pakistan....The findings suggest that women in these four countries are motivated to replace a child that dies and that their subsequent fertility is higher. Women with more education (in Sri Lanka and Pakistan) and women who have close to ideal family size (in Pakistan and Kenya) are significantly more effective at replacing a child who dies."
Correspondence: K. Richter, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, Salaya, Nakhonchaisri, Nakhonpathom 73170, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30255 Santow, Gigi. A sequence of events in fertility and family formation? In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 3, 1989. 217-29 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"Fertility and nuptiality are now being maintained at new low levels in the industrialised world. Countries that were very different in broad demographic terms 30 years ago are now virtually indistinguishable. The question is, did they arrive at their present situation through essentially the same route? This paper addresses this question by examining the course and rate of recent changes in fertility and nuptiality in the West, and searching for evidence of a common sequence of events through which each country has passed....[findings indicate that] each country has followed the same sequence of demographic events, although from different starting points, at different speeds and with occasional false starts and reversals. Fertility fell first, most notably marital fertility. Marriage rates fell later, but after divorce rates had begun to rise. Cohabiting unions are a recent development in some western countries."
Correspondence: G. Santow, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30256 Sarkar, B. N. Fertility level changes in India. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 2, Dec 1989. 103-19 pp. Kerala, India. In Eng.
The determinants of fertility decline in India are examined using data from national and regional surveys and censuses. Family size, educational levels, female age at marriage and first birth, and family planning programs are considered. Findings reveal that a reduction in fertility is dependent upon female education beyond the primary level.
Correspondence: B. N. Sarkar, Survey Research Centre, Calcutta, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30257 Sathar, Zeba A.; Akhtar, Afifa. Evidence of fertility decline in Karachi. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 4, Winter 1988. 659-70 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
The authors examine fertility decline in Karachi, Pakistan, which is the major modern center of Pakistan and is expected to lead the demogrphic transition in the country. Conclusions reveal that "there does seem to be concrete evidence that fertility in Karachi may [have fallen] in the recent past and, certainly, fertility levels are lower than in the rest of the country. These fertility levels are largely an outcome of the higher age at marriage of females and higher contraceptive use as compared to other areas of Pakistan. This is despite the shorter length of breast-feeding and smaller proportions who breast-feed their children. However the motivation for smaller families may be emerging as an important contributing factor given the higher schooling ratios and the lower infant morality rates found in the city." Comments by Arif A. Zaidi are included (pp. 669-70).
Correspondence: Z. A. Sathar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30258 Sathar, Zeba A.; Kazi, Shahnaz. Female employment and fertility: further investigation of an ambivalent association. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 28, No. 3, Autumn 1989. 175-93 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"This study of the relationship between female employment and fertility is based on a survey of 1,000 ever-married women in Karachi, [Pakistan]. A distinct pattern of differentials in actual performance and in desired fertility is observed across working and non-working women....Women in higher status occupations marry much later than and have half the completed family size of those women working in lower status occupations. The fertility of non-working women lies somewhere in between these two groups. Some reasons for the fertility differentials found are identified in variations in point of entry into the labour force relative to the stage in child-bearing, in expectations from sons in old age support, and in relative facility in seeking means of fertility control. Working women in higher status occupations also have better chances of their children surviving, whereas women in lower status occupations suffer a greater toll of child deaths."
Correspondence: Z. A. Sathar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30259 Sathar, Zeba A.; Kazi, Shahnaz. Women, work and reproduction in Karachi. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 16, No. 2, Jun 1990. 66-9, 80 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"A survey of 1,000 women in Karachi [Pakistan] was undertaken to measure the effect of both education and employment on women's fertility and status....Results show that women's status improves with 10 or more years of education and with employment in professional or other salaried positions outside the home; however, having less than 10 years of schooling and working in low-paying service sector jobs or in income-earning activities at home shows little effect. Employment in professional or higher paying jobs appeared to have more effect than education on lowering women's fertility in the five years prior to the survey."
Correspondence: Z. A. Sathar, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30260 Schellekens, Jona. Socio-economic determinants of marital fertility in two eighteenth-century Dutch villages. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 6, No. 1, May 1990. 51-68 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
Socioeconomic determinants of marital fertility in eighteenth-century Netherlands are examined through analysis of birth intervals. "The findings...suggest that economic factors may affect marital fertility in pre-transition societies. In the example presented here, economic factors seem to affect marital fertility in the lower class mostly unconsciously, through changes in breastfeeding practices. Economic factors seem to affect the marital fertility of upper-class women in the early stages of the reproductive cycle through the conscious practice of contraception."
Correspondence: J. Schellekens, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Department of Demography, Jerusalem 91905, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30261 Singh, K. K.; Singh, Uttam; Bhattacharya, B. N. An extension of the model for interior birth interval. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 363-80 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this paper we have derived a probability distribution to describe the variation in the length of interior birth interval under assumptions such as the start of the interval...is a distant point since marriage, and the fertility parameters before the start of observational period are different from those during the period of observation and a conception may or may not terminate in a live birth....The parameters involved in the model are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation procedure. Suitability of the model is illustrated through real data [from India]."
Correspondence: K. K. Singh, Banaras Hindu University, Centre of Population Studies, Varanasi 221 005, UP, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30262 Singh, V. K. Estimation of fecundability and risk of foetal wastage from data on straddling birth intervals. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 401-9 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made here to ascertain current levels of fecundability and foetal wastage through [straddling birth interval] data in a population where data on pregnancy termination are hampered by low literacy level and ethical resistances. Bearing in mind the fact that the period of non-susceptibility is a key factor in birth spacing and varies considerably depending upon the mode of termination of a pregnancy, a generalised model has been presented for the purpose of estimation of fecundability and risk of pregnancy wastage." The geographical focus is on India.
Correspondence: V. K. Singh, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, UP, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30263 Sinha, Arun K.; Kumar, Dilip. An application of the symmetrical bivariate negative binomial distribution. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 435-44 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"We have made an attempt to employ the symmetrical bivariate negative binomial distribution (SBNBD) to investigate and predict the behaviour of fertility....In order to illustrate the technique we have used the two entirely different sets of data related to live births. The first set is based on the births that occurred at the Patna Medical College Hospital, India during 1983 and the second set is related to the family history of [mothers living in France]."
Correspondence: A. K. Sinha, Patna University, Department of Statistics, Patna 800 005, Bihar State, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30264 Srikantan, K. Sivaswamy; Balasubramanian, K. Stalling of fertility decline in India. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 75-88 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper investigates the important factors accounting for a slow decline in [the crude birth rate], in the face of an increasing couple protection rate in the major states of India....The paper also explores some of the linkages between fertility and contraception and their determinants. The data sources for this study are population censuses, the Sample Registration System (SRS) and family planning service statistics provided by the Department of Family Welfare Programme of the Government of India. Data from contraceptive prevalence surveys carried out in various developing and developed countries have also been examined to understand the nature and strength of the association between the levels of contraception and fertility."
Correspondence: K. S. Srikantan, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30265 Srinivasan, K. Natural fertility and nuptiality patterns in India: historical levels and recent changes. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 173-92 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this article, an attempt has been made to study the interstate differentials and associated factors in three major components in Indian fertility, viz., natural fertility, nuptiality pattern, and contraceptive use, using primarily the data on the 1972 and 1984 age patterns of fertility." Consideration is given to the effects of modernization, breast-feeding, sexual abstinence, family planning programs, and age differentials.
Correspondence: K. Srinivasan, International Institute for Population Sciences, Govandi Station Road, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30266 Srivastava, U.; Singh, K. K. A probability model for number of conceptions when sterility is age dependent. Janasamkhya, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jun 1989. 59-70 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the development of a probability model with a view to describe the distribution of conceptions to females within a given time period, when the start of the observational period is a distant point since marriage. In the derivation of the model, allowance is made for the onset of secondary sterility during the observational period. The application of the model is illustrated through real data." Data are from a 1978 survey conducted in India by Banaras Hindu University.
Correspondence: U. Srivastava, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Mahila Mahavidyalaya, Varanasi 221 005 UP, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30267 Tactuk, Pablo; Molina, Maritza; Jansen, Senaida; Ceballos, Zenon; Taveras, Marina. Fertility determinants, levels, and trends in the Dominican Republic. [Determinantes, niveles y tendencias de la fecundidad en la Republica Dominicana.] DHS Further Analysis Series, No. 8, Apr 1990. v, 61 pp. Asociacion Dominicana Pro-Bienestar de la Familia, Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"Based on the Bongaarts model, the study analyzes total fertility rates and establishes the effects of the most important proximate determinants of fertility (contraception, marriage, and postpartum infecundability) for each of the categories of the variables: geographic zone, marital status, women's education, occupation of the partner, and female economic activity. The study is based on the analysis of the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in the Dominican Republic in 1986. The results of the study show that marriage and contraceptive use both inhibit fertility and reduce the theoretical rate by 44 percent and 46 percent, respectively, for the total population, whereas postpartum infecundability attributable to breastfeeding patterns has a less significant effect (16 percent)." Findings also reveal differentials among urban and rural populations and between literate and illiterate women.
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30268 Thane, P. M. The debate on the declining birth-rate in Britain: the "menace" of an ageing population, 1920s-1950s. Continuity and Change, Vol. 5, No. 2, Aug 1990. 283-305 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"Between the 1920s and 1930s, concern was expressed in Britain, chiefly by politicians, demographers and economists, about the possible effects of the decline in the birth-rate. This paper focuses upon fears about the effects of the ageing of society which would result. These fears were at a peak between the mid 1930s and late 1940s, but took on a different, more optimistic character amid the full employment of the post-war period compared with that of the pre-war depression. The chief sources are the publications of leading protagonists, official, semi-official and academic investigations."
Correspondence: P. M. Thane, University of London, Goldsmiths' College, Department of Social Sciences and Administration, Lewisham Way, New Cross, London SE14 6NW, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30269 Tuladhar, Jayanti M. The persistence of high fertility in Nepal. ISBN 81-210-0227-3. LC 89-9009. 1989. 407 pp. Inter-India Publications: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author describes and analyzes the fertility behavior of Nepalese women. Chapters are included on marriage and fertility patterns, family planning programs, factors affecting use and nonuse of contraception, and determinants of contraceptive use. The effect of family planning programs on Nepal's fertility is examined, and the factors that underlie the persistence of high fertility in Nepal are discussed. Data are from a 1976 fertility survey, a 1981 contraceptive prevalence survey, and the Longitudinal Fertility and Family Planning Survey of 1975-1978.
Correspondence: Inter-India Publications, D-17 Raja Garden Extension, New Delhi 110 015, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30270 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). A study on the relationship between fertility behaviour and size, structure and functions of the family: country report of Japan. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 70, Pub. Order No. ST/ESCAP/418. 1985. iii, 43 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
Socioeconomic and cultural factors are examined as causes of changing fertility patterns in Japan. "These factors include (a) an economic slow-down triggered by the 'oil crisis', (b) the improved status of women, (c) unfavourable housing conditions, (d) increasing educational cost, (e) the use of efficient contraceptives, etc....In chapter II, the main findings from our analysis of a structural equation model of individual fertility behaviour in Japan are presented....In chapter III, the functions of the family in the determination of micro-level fertility are sketched. In chapter IV the impact of the family structure upon the nuptiality pattern and reproductive goals is analysed. In chapter V, the major part of the present report, the degree of persistence in family size on the basis of paternal and maternal sibling effects in the context of individual fertility behaviour is analyzed."
Correspondence: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30271 United Nations. Secretariat. Correlates of fertility in selected developing countries. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 28, 1989. 95-106 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The impact of differentials in key socio-economic variables on fertility levels in 32 developing countries is assessed through multiple regression analysis of aggregate-level data on 27 developing countries for three recent quinquennia, grouped into four categories according to region (Latin America vs. Asia/Oceania/Africa) and stage of fertility transition (recent vs. relatively prolonged fertility decline). The results demonstrate the substantial impact of differences in child survival and educational attainment on the intercountry variance of fertility (the total explained variance in the total fertility rate ranges from 46 to 84 per cent), while economic indicators (per capita gross national product and per cent labour force in agriculture) have slight net impact."
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Secretariat, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30272 Valkovics, Emil J.; Pollard, John H. Some experiments in the fitting of Pearson curves to age-specific fertility rates using Hungarian data. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 15, No. 4, 1989. 427-42 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Ger; Fre.
"Over the years a variety of curves has been fitted to age-specific general fertility rates and marital fertility rates. Hoem and his co-workers recommend that such functions be fitted by least squares. This sometimes poses a problem, and in this paper we report on experiments we have made in fitting Pearson Type III and Pearson Type I curves and simplified special cases of these curves to Hungarian data using moment methods. Our aim has been to find curves which provide adequate fits and which do not require excessive calculation."
Correspondence: E. J. Valkovics, Hungarian Central Statistical Office, Demographic Research Institute, Veres Palne u.10, H-1053 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30273 van de Walle, Etienne; Foster, Andrew D. Fertility decline in Africa: assessment and prospects. World Bank Technical Paper, No. 125, ISBN 0-8213-1600-1. 1990. x, 63 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This study from the [World Bank's] Africa Technical Department represents the first phase of a two-phase program on 'Fertility Determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa' with the goal of identifying effective policies to reduce fertility and slow rapid population growth in the region. The study evaluates fertility trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, based on the most recent results of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), and reviews the literature on the economic and cultural explanations for continued high fertility. Family planning services are still not widespread in the region and there are signs of unmet need for contraception among some groups of the population. The authors find, however, that the most important reason for low contraceptive use in Africa is high desired family size--over 6 children per woman, on average."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30274 Wineberg, Howard. Delayed childbearing, childlessness and marital disruption. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 21, No. 1, Spring 1990. vii, xi, 99-110 pp. Calgary, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Using data from the June 1985 [U.S.] Current Population Survey, this paper examines the relation between delayed childbearing and childlessness and marital dissolution among white and black women married at least five years; marital dissolution is measured by separation. Results of a multivariate analysis indicate that among whites those having their first birth while married have a reduced risk of separation whereas childless women and those having a premarital first birth have an increased risk of separation....Differentials in marital dissolution occur among other subgroups of the population (e.g., age at first birth and to a lesser extent education)."
Correspondence: H. Wineberg, Portland State University, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Center for Population Research and Census, Box 751, Portland, OR 97207. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:30275 Yadava, R. C.; Saxena, N. C. On the estimation of parity progression and instantaneous parity progression ratios. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 357-62 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The objective of the present paper is to derive an expression to study the inter-relationship between PPR [parity progression ratios] and IPPR [instantaneous parity progression ratios] under certain assumptions and consequently to estimate both PPR and IPPR....It is further demonstrated that though both PPR and IPPR are probabilities of progression, PPR, by definition, depends only upon the pattern of limiting births while IPPR is dependent not only on the pattern of limiting births but also on the spacing pattern between births. The application of the proposed technique is illustrated with a number of sets of [Indian] data collected under the auspices of various agencies."
Correspondence: R. C. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Centre of Population Studies, Varanasi 221 005, UP, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30276 Zang, Luoqian. A study on Beijing's fertility peak. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 4, Dec 1989. 26-35 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The fertility of Beijing, China, is studied for the period 1953-1985, with a focus on peaks in the birth rate. The impact of both family planning and migration on fertility changes is discussed, and population projections to the year 2050 are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

56:30277 Alter, George. Fertility patterns of urban natives and rural-to-urban migrants in the nineteenth century, Verviers, Belgium, 1849-1880. PIRT Working Paper, No. 2, Apr 1985. 16, [9] pp. Indiana University, Population Institute for Research and Training [PIRT]: Bloomington, Indiana. In Eng.
"The study described here was designed to examine differential fertility in an urban population, the city of Verviers, Belgium, during the first stage of the fertility transition....First, it describes differences in the fertility patterns in a transitional and a pre-transition cohort. The level of fertility in Verviers was actually rising at the time that family limitation began to be practiced, and the evidence points to changes in the effect of breastfeeding on post-partum amenorrhea. Second, the paper describes differences in fertility by occupation, literacy, and urban/rural background....Neither occupation nor literacy are important in identifying couples in the vanguard of the fertility transition. Urban background, however, was a very important characteristic of couples practicing family limitation."
Correspondence: Indiana University, Population Institute for Research and Training, Memorial Hall East 220, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30278 Aneshensel, Carol S.; Becerra, Rosina M.; Fielder, Eve P.; Schuler, Roberleigh H. Onset of fertility-related events during adolescence: a prospective comparison of Mexican American and non-Hispanic white females. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 80, No. 8, Aug 1990. 959-63 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Ethnic differences in the first occurrence of fertility-related events are assessed for non-Hispanic White and Mexican American female adolescents. A community-based sample of 1,023 females ages 13 to 19 years was interviewed in 1984-85; 874 (85.4 percent) were reinterviewed approximately two years later. Mexico-born Mexican Americans have the lowest rate of early sexual intercourse, but the highest rate of early births because they are most likely to become pregnant if sexually active, and most likely to have a birth if pregnant. Non-Hispanic Whites have the highest rate of early sexual intercourse, but the lowest rate of early births because pregnant non-Hispanic Whites terminate pregnancies most often. U.S.-born Mexican Americans are intermediate between the other two groups. Delays in the onset of sexual activity among Mexican Americans are not converted into corresponding delays in first pregnancies and births. Early marriage among Mexico-born Mexican Americans, however, accounts for much of the ethnic difference in early fertility."
Correspondence: C. S. Aneshensel, University of California, School of Public Health, Department of Community Health Sciences, Division of Population and Family Health, 21-245 Center for Health Sciences, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1772. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:30279 Balakrishnan, T. R.; Wu, Zheng. Regional patterns of nuptiality and fertility in Canada: 1921-1986. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 90-4, Mar 1990. 28, [5] pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"Largely inspired by the European Fertility Studies, the present paper intends to document the levels and changes in regional nuptiality and fertility in Canada from 1921 to 1986 using the Canadian Census and Vital Statistics data, and to provide some tentative explanations for the changes. Coale's decomposition method will be employed to examine the changes in nuptiality and fertility over time and the changes of relative importance of each of the three components in determining the period fertility. However, a more important objective of this study is to test three hypotheses, two of which are directly based on the findings of the European Fertility Project Study." The hypotheses state that "regional differentials exist in the changes in nuptiality and in the process of fertility decline....The regional differentials in nuptiality and fertility within a country (or across countries) become less significant as modernization in the country (or countries) proceeds....There is a regional variation in non-marital fertility in the demographic transition."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, Department of Sociology, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30280 Ben-Barak, Shalvia. Fertility patterns among Soviet immigrants to Israel: the role of cultural variables. Journal of Family History, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1990. 87-100 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"The conclusion of research on the European fertility decline that cultural variables play a significant role is supported by questionnaire data from a study of 1979-1980 Soviet immigrants to Israel. The study was carried out using a causal model with path analysis and latent variables, and revealed that the specific number of children in a Soviet family was determined by family attitudes and values about the role and status of the woman in the family, by the number of children in the parental home, and by the amount of assistance the parents gave to the young couple. The causal model enabled the measurement of the relative direct and indirect effects of cultural variables."
Correspondence: S. Ben-Barak, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, School of Education, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30281 Bronfman, Mario; Garcia, Brigida; Juarez, Fatima; de Oliveira, Orlandina; Quilodran, Julieta. Social sectors and reproduction in Mexico. DHS Further Analysis Series, No. 7, Apr 1990. v, 30 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"The objective of this research project is to carry out an in-depth study of reproductive patterns among different sectors of Mexican society. We concentrate on nuptiality, fertility, and infant mortality, important components of generational replacement, and on female work, which is closely related to the daily up-keep of individuals and social groups. The study is based on the consideration that the determinants of socioeconomic behavior are to be sought not only at the individual level but also at different levels of social reality, which condition individual action....We consider that inequality in objective living conditions among different social sectors implies inequality in choices and opportunities, which most directly influences the behaviors under study." Data are from the National Fertility and Health Survey conducted in 1987.
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30282 Casper, Lynne M. Does family interaction prevent adolescent pregnancy? Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 22, No. 3, May-Jun 1990. 109-14 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study uses data from the 1982 [U.S.] National Survey of Family Growth to ascertain whether family interaction can avert adolescent sexual activity, pregnancy, childbearing and parenthood. The results...indicate that the family may be effective in increasing adolescents' use of contraceptives and selection of abortion or adoption as alternatives to parenthood. Family interaction, however, was not associated with forestalling adolescent sexual activity or with providing for the well-being of the adolescent and her child....Characteristics associated with effectiveness in preventing adolescent pregnancy included race, religion, residence, mother's education, the adolescent's age and family income."
Correspondence: L. M. Casper, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Sociology, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30283 Chimere-Dan, Orieji. Determinants of rural and urban fertility differentials in Nigeria. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 22, No. 3, Jul 1990. 293-303 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The author analyzes determinants of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria. "Whatever proximate variables are examined, their differential effects on rural and urban fertility are small. This indicates that no major disturbance has taken place in urban or rural reproductive norms. However, two possible reasons for the converging pattern of rural and urban fertility in Nigeria are identified. One is that urban mothers in the first half of the childbearing age range have higher fertility than their rural counterparts. The other is that breast-feeding and post-partum abstinence, which are the major determinants of marital fertility, exert a more depressing influence on rural than urban fertility....[The study is based on] the histories and selected background data collected from 9,727 women aged 15-49 years in the Nigeria Fertility Survey (1981-82)...."
Correspondence: O. Chimere-Dan, London School of Economics and Political Science, Population Studies Department, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30284 Grindstaff, Carl F. Socio-demographic associations with fertility: a profile of Canadian women at age 30. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 16, No. 1, 1989. 43-60 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to examine the social, demographic and economic characteristics of ever married women at age 30 in Canada in 1981, in relation to their level of fertility. The data are developed from the 1981 Census of Canada two per cent public use sample tape....Both bivariate and multivariate analyses indicate that economic variables (level of education, level of income) account for the most variation in fertility among these women, while cultural factors have no important relationship to numbers of children ever born. While the data do not allow for systematic causal analysis, it would also appear that children in the household reduce the probability of adult women being involved in important economic roles outside of the home, thus contributing to the overall lower level of attainment of the major economic variables of education, occupation and income." The impact of women's age at childbearing and at marriage is also considered.
Correspondence: C. F. Grindstaff, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30285 Harpending, Henry; Draper, Patricia. Estimating parity of parents: application to the history of infertility among the !Kung of southern Africa. Human Biology, Vol. 62, No. 2, Apr 1990. 195-203 pp. Detroit, Michigan. In Eng.
"In this article we present a technique to make inferences about fertility in the generation of the parents of a set of informants. We compare the imputed parity distribution of the parents of a sample of !Kung Bushmen over age 50 in 1988 with the parity distribution derived from direct interviews of older women in 1968....Our purposes are to explore the reliability of our procedure for making inferences about fertility in a parental cohort and to examine the history of fertility among the !Kung, because the historical depth of low !Kung fertility and of African infertility in general is poorly known."
Correspondence: H. Harpending, Pennsylvania State University, Department of Anthropology, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30286 Kane, Thomas T. Streams of change: fertility, nuptiality, and assimilation of guestworker populations in the Federal Republic of Germany. Garland Studies in Historical Demography, ISBN 0-8240-5093-2. LC 89-29804. 1989. xiv, 211 pp. Garland Publishing: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"This study examines the fertility trends, levels, and differentials of five guestworker populations residing in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and explores the effects of migrant selectivity and assimilation on guestworker fertility behavior....Using population and fertility data from the annual microcensuses, decennial censuses, and population registration system, the fertility of the five migrant groups (Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Turks, and Yugoslavs) is estimated for the 1961-1981 period and compared to native-German fertility and fertility in the home countries." Consideration is given to determinants of fertility differentials, including age, sex, marital status, and origin; cultural assimilation; duration of residence; migrants' knowledge of German; and intermarriage to natives.
Correspondence: Garland Publishing, 136 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30287 Krishnan, Vijaya. The effects of religious factors on childlessness: the Canadian case. Biology and Society, Vol. 7, No. 2, Jun 1990. 73-9 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Using the Canadian Fertility Survey of currently married or cohabiting women in the age group 35-44, this study evaluates the role of selected demographic and socio-economic factors on childlessness (voluntary, involuntary, and temporary)....The findings show that, contrary to earlier assertions, Catholics are more likely than non-Catholics to be childless. Women who attend church services quite frequently are less predisposed to choose to be childless. Also, the results indicate that the higher the woman's wage, the more likely she is to remain childless. Religious factors make a particularly important contribution to the incidence of childlessness among first- and second-generation women."
Correspondence: V. Krishnan, University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30288 Kunstadter, Peter; Kunstadter, Sally L.; Podhisita, Chai; Ritnetikul, Prasit. Hmong demography: an anthropological case study. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 3, 1989. 317-30 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper describes features of Hmong culture relevant to population behaviour, and discusses results from demographic studies of Hmong minority people living in Thailand and Laotian Hmong refugees in the U.S. Hmong were chosen for this study because of their high fertility, and because of their very large Chinese-like patrilineal, patrilocal, extended family households, which are economically collaborating units. We examine relationships between Hmong ideals regarding family and household and their population behaviour, and variations in demographic behaviour in relation to economic differences, especially constraints on resources, at the village level." Data are from 1988 surveys in the Chaing Mai province of Thailand.
Correspondence: P. Kunstadter, University of California, Institute for Health Policy Studies, 3rd and Parnassus Avenues, San Francisco, CA 94143. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30289 Leoprapai, Boonlert; Thongthai, Varachai. Fertility and family planning in Thailand, 1987. Journal of Population and Social Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jul 1989. 21-41, 121 pp. Nakhonpathom, Thailand. In Tha. with sum. in Eng.
The authors examine regional fertility and contraceptive use differentials in Thailand. Contraceptive prevalence rates and method use among regions are compared. Although fertility was found to be higher in rural areas, contraceptive use in urban and rural areas was found to be equal, due to the proliferation of government sponsored family planning centers. Urban residents received services more often from the private sector.
Correspondence: B. Leoprapai, Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research, Salaya, Nakhonchaisri, Nakhonpathom 73170, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30290 Mahdavi, Saeid. A simultaneous-equations model of cross-national differentials in fertility and female labourforce participation rates. Journal of Economic Studies, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1990. 32-49 pp. West Yorkshire, England. In Eng.
The author constructs an empirical model to analyze differences in fertility and female labor force participation rates among less- and more-developed countries. "In its theoretical section, the article will emphasize SETF [socioeconomic theories of fertility] as a suitable foundation for demand-oriented population policies based on promotion of socio-economic equity. After a brief review of some major propositions of SETF...a formal model of household behaviour will be developed....Specific attention will be paid to patterns of income distribution...as a major aspect of socio-economic equity."
Correspondence: S. Mahdavi, University of Texas, San Antonio, TX 78285-0655. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:30291 Markland, Robert E.; Vincent, Murray L. Improving resource allocation in a teenage sexual risk reduction program. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 24, No. 1, 1990. 35-48 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Teenage pregnancy is one of America's greatest social and economic problems. This paper presents and discusses a multiobjective modeling approach to allocating scarce resources to the problem of teenage sexual risk reduction. This model is developed using information from a successful teenage sexual risk reduction program which has been implemented in Bamberg County, South Carolina. Test results for several resource allocation scenarios are presented and discussed, and implications for use of the model are noted."
Correspondence: R. E. Markland, University of South Carolina, School of Public Health, Columbia, SC 29208. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:30292 Trent, Katherine. Teenage childbearing: structural determinants in developing countries. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 22, No. 3, Jul 1990. 281-92 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Data for a sample of 50 developing countries are analysed to investigate the social correlates of the teenage birth rate. Of five major factors considered as predictors of national birth rates (socioeconomic development, family planning programmes, women's status, the sex ratio, and marriage patterns), regression analyses reveal that only the average age at marriage for women has a significant effect on the teenage birth rate. In contrast, all variables except the sex ratio and the average age at marriage for women have a significant effect on the total fertility rate."
Correspondence: K. Trent, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, 430 Park Hall, Buffalo, NY 14260. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30293 Underhill-Sem, Yvonne. Fertility differentials in the Auckland region 1983-1986. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, Nov 1989. 23-34 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to describe the complex sub-regional and ethnic fertility patterns that exist in the Auckland region [of New Zealand] and to begin to discuss how they may have contributed to the recuperation of fertility in the region." It is found that "fertility rates for young Maori women seem to be increasing: Pacific Island fertility remains high and is increasing for women aged 25-29, and rates for European women have risen slightly for ages 25-29 and more markedly for ages 30-34. In addition, Maori women in South Auckland have higher fertility rates across all age groups than Maori women living elsewhere in Auckland."
Correspondence: Y. Underhill-Sem, Auckland Area Health Board, P.O. Box 5546, Auckland, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30294 Wijewickrema, S. Fertility adaptation to local conditions: Maghrebians in Belgium. Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1990. 55-76 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"A detailed study of Maghrebian fertility in Belgium in so far as it depends on duration of residence (in Belgium) is followed by an investigation into the links between the same (Maghrebian) fertility and age of entry into Belgium....The results obtained document the fall [of Maghrebian] fertility...with increasing length of residential duration and decreasing age at entry." The demographic consequences of migrant fertility behavior on the below-replacement fertility experienced in Belgium since the 1970s are discussed.
Correspondence: S. Wijewickrema, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Centrum voor Sociologie, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30295 Williams, Linda B.; Zimmer, Basil G. The changing influence of religion on U.S. fertility: evidence from Rhode Island. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 3, Aug 1990. 475-81 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is twofold: (1) to examine the relationship between religion (Catholic vs. non-Catholic) and fertility [in the United States] during a time of considerable realignment in the church and (2) to discover how fertility has varied among Catholics who differ in their religious practices, as measured by frequency of attendance and frequency of communion. Our analysis is based on two random-sample household surveys of the Providence, RI, metropolitan area....The first survey was conducted in 1967...and included 1,127 households. In the 1980 replication, the members of 1,160 households were surveyed....In this sample, fertility was found to be higher among participating Catholics than non-Catholics when socioeconomic factors such as education and income were controlled. Because in much of the rest of the United States, Catholics are not members of a majority group, however, attempts to generalize our findings to the country as a whole must be made with caution."
This paper was originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, pp. 515-6).
Correspondence: L. B. Williams, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 3700 East-West Highway, Room 1-44, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30296 Zei, G.; Lisa, A.; Astolfi, P. Fertility and malaria in Sardinia. Annals of Human Biology, Vol. 17, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1990. 315-30 pp. London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"In this paper, female fertility in Sardinia is analysed in relation to the incidence of malaria in 335 towns and villages on the island, with a view to testing the hypothesis that differential fertility is a selection-induced mechanism in this unfavourable environment. The data for this survey are based on the fertility of married or widowed Sardinian women in postreproductive age, and are taken from the 1961 Italian population census...." It is found that "cultural factors measured by women's level of education are negatively correlated with fertility, just as the 'urban' character of the area in which the women lived has a lowering effect on the fertility rate. The hypothesis of differential mortality according to social class, affecting lower-class women and in particular the more prolific among them, seems to be supported by data analysed through time."
Correspondence: G. Zei, Institute of Genetics, C.N.R., Via Abbiategrasso 207, Pavia, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

No citations in this issue.

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

56:30297 Abdulah, Norma. Selection, change, and discontinuation of contraceptive methods in Trinidad and Tobago. DHS Further Analysis Series, No. 4, Mar 1990. viii, 50 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro Systems, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
"The paper explores the extent to which the use of contraceptives generally, the choice of specific methods, and the shifting and/or discontinuation of these methods vary according to the demographic characteristics of the women [of Trinidad and Tobago]. Current age had an overwhelming impact on the selection of specific methods, although the contraceptive pill and the condom remain the two most widely used methods in all age groups except the youngest, among whom withdrawal was very popular. Method shifting is also highest among the 15-19 age group. The impact of education on method selection appears minimal. There is also no real difference according to education in the incidence of contraceptive drop-out, but method shifting is higher among the more educated and younger group. The pill and the rhythm method are more popular among urban women, who are more prone to method shifting than rural women." Data are from the Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 1987.
Correspondence: Institute for Resource Development, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30298 Bhatia, P. S. India's family planning programme: emerging issues. In: Population transition in India, Volume 1, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 227-41 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"An intriguing aspect of the Indian family planning programme is the gap between expressed favourable attitude towards the small-family norm and knowledge and practice of family planning methods amongst Indian couples. In spite of a long existence of more than three and a half decades of its family planning programmes, India has been able to achieve a CPR [couple protection rate] of only 39.8 per cent by the end of March 1988. Another aspect causing concern is the phenomenon of non-reconciliation of CPR and birth rate witnessed during the last eight years or so: increase in CPR has not been reflected in a proportionate decline in birth rate....An attempt is made here to discuss how other factors such as high infant and child mortality, preference for a male child, decisions taken at the policy-making levels and actions taken at the motivational and service-providing levels affect the acceptance of family planning methods."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:30299 Botswana. Central Statistics Office. M