Volume 56 - Number 2 - Summer 1990

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

56:20065 Asseo, David; Monney, Daniel. A note on the population of the world in 1910. [Note sur la population des pays du monde en 1910.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1989. 395-411 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors estimate the population of the world by region and country in 1910 using data from a variety of published sources. Available sources and data quality are assessed.
Correspondence: D. Asseo, Centre d'Histoire Economique Internationale, Geneva, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20066 Clarke, John I. A quarter of a millennium of world population movements, 1780-2030s. Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1989. 295-304 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The author briefly sketches the main underlying influences which have dominated population changes over the past two centuries and those that are likely to persist over the next fifty years: the peopling of many of the lesser populated areas of the world by Europeans, the massive improvements in human mobility, the division of the world's population into states, the growth of the secondary and tertiary sectors, the widespread and large scale urbanization, growing concentration of population in economic core areas, differential demographic transition, major social changes, the spread of education and the universalization of information flows, [and] the growing influnece of governments upon population change."
Correspondence: J. I. Clarke, University of Durham, Science Laboratories, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20067 Dupaquier, Jacques. Population trends in the west of France in the nineteenth century. [La dynamique demographique de la France de l'Ouest au XIXe siecle.] Norois, Vol. 140, 1988. 409-14 pp. Poitiers, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Demographic trends in the west of France in the nineteenth century are assessed. Significant differences within the region are observed, with the Normandy-Maine region losing population and the Brittany-Poitou area gaining population. Reasons for these differences are discussed.
Correspondence: J. Dupaquier, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Laboratoire de Demographie Historique, 54 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20068 Kidane, Asmerom. Reestimating the Ethiopian population by age and geographical distribution, 1935-1985. Northeast African Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1987. 59-73 pp. East Lansing, Michigan. In Eng.
The author recalculates estimates of the population of Ethiopia over the past 50 years using data from the 1984 census. Estimates are made for the country as a whole and for its administrative regions. The primary objective is to present estimates that are not subject to the underestimation prevalent in earlier estimates.
Correspondence: A. Kidane, Addis Ababa University, POB 1176, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:20069 Levy, Michel L. Potsdam, Versailles, Potsdam (concerning the population of Germany). [Potsdam, Versailles, Potsdam (de la population de l'Allemagne).] Population et Societes, No. 246, May 1990. [4] pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a historical review of the dynamics of the German population, with particular reference to the effects of political changes resulting from the two world wars. Comparisons are made with French population trends.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20070 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Fertility and mortality in Norway, 1771-1987. [Fruktbarhet og dodelighet i Norge, 1771-1987.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 89/17, ISBN 82-537-2840-9. 1989. 44 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The tables in this publication illustrate trends in migration, fertility, and mortality in Norway between 1771 and 1987. Historical data are presented concerning vital rates by individual year, 1771-1987; marital fertility; illegitimate births; total fertility; infant mortality; age- and sex-specific mortality rates; and age- and sex-specific mortality rates by marital status.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 Dep., Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

56:20071 Byerly, Edwin. State population and household estimates: July 1, 1989. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1058, Mar 1990. 62 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains population and household estimates for [U.S.] States for July 1, 1989, revised household estimates for July 1, 1988, revised annual estimates for the resident and civilian populations for July 1, 1981-88, and components of population change for the 1980-89 period. The annual estimates of the resident population are further disaggregated by sex and age. The age detail includes 10-year and selected broad age groups."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20072 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Structure of population by municipality, 31.12.1988. [Vaestorakenne kunnittain, 31.12.1988/Befolkningens sammansattning kommunvis, 31.12.1988.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1990, No. 1, 1990. 80 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Data on the characteristics of the population of Finland by age and sex are presented by province, regional planning area, and municipality. Data are also included on the characteristics of the population under age 18 by age and sex, and on marital status. Some retrospective data back to 1888 are also provided.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20073 Fleischer, Henning. Population development, 1988. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1988.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1989. 774-9 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Population trends in the Federal Republic of Germany in 1988 are described, with an emphasis on international migration of both Germans and foreigners. A brief review of trends in births, deaths, migration, and population size over the past two decades is also provided, and prospects for the future are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:20074 Hollmann, Frederick W. U.S. population estimates, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1989. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1057, Mar 1990. iii, 24 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population of the United States by single years of age to 100, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Included are revised estimates for July 1, 1986, to July 1, 1989....Race categories for which age-sex distributions are shown include White, Black, and Other races. Estimates of resident population by sex are also presented for the Asian or Pacific Islander, and the American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut populations....Also included is an analysis of the year-to-year change in the total population of the United States from 1980 through 1989 and its major components: births, deaths, and net civilian immigration."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20075 Hollmann, Frederick W. United States population estimates, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1980 to 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1045, Jan 1990. v, 98 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents annual estimates of the population of the United States by single years of age to 100, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Total population figures are also presented for the Asian or Pacific Islander, as well as the American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut populations. Included are estimates for each year from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1988; comparable census figures are also shown for April 1, 1980....Also included in this report is an analysis of the year-to-year change in the population of the United States from 1940 through 1988 and its major components: births, deaths, and net civilian immigration. Components of change by race are shown beginning with the census of April 1, 1950; for the Hispanic-origin population, beginning with April 1, 1980. Estimates of the Hispanic population, the Asian or Pacific Islander population, and the American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut population, as well as the estimation of single-year age detail above age 85 appear for the first time in this report."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20076 Hopken, Wolfgang. First results of the population census in Albania. [Erste Ergebnisse der Bevolkerungszahlung in Albanien.] Sudosteuropa, Vol. 9, No. 38, 1989. 542-8 pp. Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Preliminary results of the 1989 population census of Albania are presented, and trends since 1945 are reviewed. Information is included on population size and growth, sex structure, and urbanization. Special attention is given to ethnic minority groups.
Location: New York Public Library.

56:20077 Jamison, Ellen. World population profile: 1989. No. WP-89, Sep 1989. v, 93 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents summary demographic information for all the countries and territories of the world with a population of at least 5,000 in 1989." Separate consideration is given to world population trends, the components of population change, contraceptive prevalence, and urbanization. Data are taken from a variety of national and international sources.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20078 Levy, Michel L. The population of France before the 1990 census. [La population de la France avant le recensement de 1990.] Population et Societes, No. 244, Mar 1990. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a summary of recent data on the population of France included in the 1990 publication Donnees Sociales. Comparisons are made with data available from other official sources such as the census.
Correspondence: INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20079 Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (New York, New York). United States, Canada: population changes. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 71, No. 2, Apr-Jun 1990. 29-35 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for U.S. states and Canadian provinces for 1980, 1985 or 1986, 1989, and 1990. Data are also provided on annual percent population change over the decade.
Correspondence: Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20080 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). East North Central: 1988 population and 1987 per capita income estimates for counties and incorporated places. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population Estimates, No. 88-ENC-SC, Mar 1990. iii, 130 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report is one of five regional reports containing current population estimates for July 1, 1988, and estimates of per capita income for calendar year 1987 for all general purpose governmental units in each [U.S.] State....The detailed tables show the July 1, 1988, population estimate and the April 1, 1980, census population for each area, along with the numerical and percent change between 1980 and 1988. In addition, they present the 1987 per capita money income estimates, together with the 1979 per capita money income and the percent change between these two figures." The data are presented by state, county, incorporated place, and minor civil division. Other reports present similar data for the West North Central, South, West, and Northeast regions.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20081 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Population estimates for metropolitan statistical areas, July 1, 1988, 1987, and 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population Estimates, No. 88-B, Jan 1990. 31 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents population estimates as of July 1, 1988, revised estimates for July 1987 and 1986, and components of population change, 1980-88, for the metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) in the United States and their component counties. Included are 20 consolidated MSA's (CMSA's), their 71 component areas, called primary MSA's (PMSA's), and the remaining 263 MSA's which are not subdivided into PMSA's."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-9325. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

56:20082 Akkerman, Abraham. Household and population projections for the counties of England and Wales, 1986-2021. ISBN 0-55033-003-9. Jan 1988. 117 pp. DemoSystems: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
Population and household projections are presented to the year 2021 for the 46 counties of England and the 8 counties of Wales. The projections are provided for five-year age groups and at five-year intervals. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: DemoSystems, 1405 Macdonald Place, 9925 Jasper Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T5J 2X4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20083 Arnold, Fred. Revised estimates and projections of international migration, 1980-2000. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 275, Aug 1989. 88 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author "reviews the World Bank's previous estimates and projections of international migration through the year 2000 and recommends revised figures--on the basis of recent information about immigration and emigration. Net international migration figures should be revised upward for most of the sending and receiving countries."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:20084 Bouvier, Leon F. U.S. population in the 21st century: which scenario is reasonable? Population and Environment, Vol. 11, No. 3, Spring 1990. 193-202 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author evaluates assumptions made in a January 1989 report by the U.S. Bureau of the Census projecting the U.S. population to the year 2080. "Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are: (1) that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population (2) that the high TFR [total fertility rate] of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow (3) that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's 'high' assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic."
Correspondence: L. F. Bouvier, Old Dominion University, Sociology Department, Norfolk, VA 23529. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20085 Bracalente, B.; Colantoni, M.; Di Palma, M.; Giordano, E.; Livi Bacci, M.; Todisco, E.; Vitali, O. On the threshold of the year 2000: reflections on demographic, economic, and environmental characteristics. [Alle soglie dell'anno 2000: riflessioni di carattere demografico, economico, ambientale.] LC 88-112326. 1987. 185 pp. Franco Angeli: Milan, Italy. In Ita.
This book contains seven articles on speculations as to what the world will be like in the year 2000. Topics covered include the two demographic systems into which the countries of the world are divided; demographic aging, using the example of Italy; international migration; technological progress and the labor force; the lack of infrastructure in the third world; economic accountability and the environment; and the role of agriculture and forest resources in the economic and environmental equilibrium of the world.
Correspondence: Franco Angeli, 106 Viale Monza, 20127 Milan, Italy. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

56:20086 Bulatao, Rodolfo A.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T. Africa region population projections: 1989-90 edition. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 330, Nov 1989. lxxxiii, 173 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population projections prepared for the World Bank in 1989-1990 are presented for Sub-Saharan Africa. "The majority of populations in the...region are growing rapidly. In some countries, where the average woman continues to have seven or more births, growth is as rapid as 4 percent a year. The population of the region as a whole is likely to double in slightly more than two decades, and slightly more than two decades after that, the region will be contributing more to annual world population growth than the far larger Asia region."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:20087 Bulatao, Rodolfo A.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T. Asia region population projections: 1989-90 edition. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 331, Nov 1989. lxxxiii, 151 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population projections prepared for the World Bank in 1989-1990 are presented for Asia. "Population growth is slowing for Asia, though quite unevenly across subregions. Three of the five Asia departments are growing at 1.4 percent annually, China is growing at 1.0 percent, and Other South Asia (excluding India) at 1.9 percent. The dependency burden is exceptionally variable across Asia. A country like Bangladesh has one dependent per person of working age (15-64). Nonborrower, economically vigorous economies like Singapore and Hong Kong have fewer than half as many."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:20088 Bulatao, Rodolfo A.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T. Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMN) region population projections: 1989-90 edition. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 328, Nov 1989. lxxxiii, 183 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population projections prepared for the World Bank in 1989-1990 are presented for the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region (consisting of Western Asia, Eastern and Southern Europe, and Northern Africa). "Total fertility in the region, excluding its European part, is above five children per woman, and life expectancies are around 60 years. Replacement fertility, where the average woman only reproduces herself, will not be reached until the middle of the next century. About that time, the region will be contributing more to world population growth than the far larger Asia region."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:20089 Bulatao, Rodolfo A.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region population projections: 1989-90 edition. Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper, No. WPS 329, Nov 1989. lxxxiii, 155 pp. World Bank, Population and Human Resources Department: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population projections prepared for the World Bank in 1989-1990 are presented for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Latin America and the Caribbean contributes 10 percent of annual world population growth, slightly above its 8 percent share of world population. Although demographically advanced, the region is growing faster than the Asia region. Previous high fertility, which continues in some countries, has left many young people and high population momentum: even if the young only reproduce themselves, their large numbers ensure that population will grow 60 percent."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:20090 Dittmann, Pawel. Disaggregation problems in demographic projecting. [Zagadnienie dezagregacji w prognozowaniu demograficznym.] Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 34, No. 6, Jun 1989. 30-1 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
Methodological aspects of population projections using disaggregation by age, sex, and place of residence are examined. The concepts discussed are illustrated using Polish data for the period 1976-1985.
Correspondence: P. Dittmann, Akademia Ekonomiczna we Wroclawiu, Komanderska 118/120, 53-345 Wroclaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20091 Exter, Thomas. How big will the older market be? American Demographics, Vol. 12, No. 6, Jun 1990. 30-6 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
Projections of the size and demographic characteristics of the elderly U.S. population to the year 2020 are analyzed. The focus is on the implications of this information for the business sector.
Correspondence: T. Exter, American Demographics, 108 North Cayuga Street, Ithaca, NY 14850. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20092 Italy. Istituto Centrale di Statistica [ISTAT] (Rome, Italy). Projections of the resident population by sex, age, and region: based on available data at January 1, 1988. [Previsioni della popolazione residente per sesso, eta e regione: base 1.1.1988.] Note e Relazioni, No. 4, 1989. 274; 710 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections are presented for Italy based on official data available at January 1, 1988. The cohort-component method is used to project the population up to the year 2038 without migration and including three alternative fertility assumptions, with a second projection to 2008 for the same three fertility assumptions but including migration.
Correspondence: ISTAT, Centro Diffusione Libreria, Via Cesare Balbo 11a, 00184 Rome, Italy. Location: New York Public Library.

56:20093 Louvot, Claudie. Projection of the number of households up to the year 2010. [Projection du nombre des menages a l'horizon 2010.] Collections de l'INSEE, Serie M: Menages, No. 129, Feb 1988. 99 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Population projections for households in France up to 2010 are presented based on data from the 1982 census. The data concern number of households by age and sex of person of reference, 1976-2010; number of households by type, 1983-2000; and number of households by size, 1983-2000.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20094 McCaa, Robert. Populate: a microcomputer projection package for aggregative data applied to Norway, 1736-1970. Annales de Demographie Historique, 1989. 287-98 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
Populate, an interactive PC-compatible microcomputer package for making inverse population projections, is described. "This paper briefly compares results from Populate with official figures and ordinary inverse projection using data for Norway from 1736 to 1970, then lays out the technical foundations of the program, and concludes with a discussion of some of its features and flaws." The results are compared to projections using conventional inverse methods.
Correspondence: R. McCaa, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20095 Rees, Philip. Population projections for development planning. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 534, Nov 1989. 14 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
The author explores aspects of constructing a population projection within the context of development planning. Consideration is given to "(i) the definition of the geographic units, (ii) the definition of the population units, (iii) the attributes of the population units, (iv) the components of population change to be incorporated, (v) the accounting concept to be adopted, (vi) the age-time plane to be used, (vii) the estimation methods needed, (viii) the methods of forecasting component rates, (ix) the role of exogenous variables and (x) the type of software to be used to implement the projection model."
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20096 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Spanish population projections for the period 1980-2010. Volume 1: results for the whole country. [Proyeccion de la poblacion espanola para el periodo 1980-2010. Tomo 1: resultados para el conjunto nacional.] ISBN 84-260-1719-3. 1987. 156 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
This is the first of two volumes providing population projections for Spain for the period 1980-2010. It contains the projections for the country as a whole, with the data presented by sex and age. Complete life tables by sex are also included for 1980-1981.
For Volume 2, published in 1988, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: INE Artes Graficas, 183 Paseo de la Castellana, 28071 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20097 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Spanish population projections for the period 1980-2010. Volume 2: results for autonomous communities. [Proyeccion de la poblacion espanola para el periodo 1980-2010. Tomo 2: resultados por comunidades autonomas.] ISBN 84-260-1720-7. 1988. 206 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
This is the second of two volumes providing population projections for Spain for the period 1980-2010. It contains the regional projections, with the data presented by age and sex for each of the 18 autonomous communities and for provincial capitals.
For Volume 1, published in 1987, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: INE Artes Graficas, 183 Paseo de la Castellana, 28071 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20098 Szwarcwald, Celia L.; de Castilho, Euclides A. Proposal for a model to disaggregate demographic projections relating to large areas into their geographical components. [Proposta de um modelo para desagregar projecoes demograficas de grandes areas em seus componentes geograficos.] Revista de Saude Publica, Vol. 23, No. 4, Aug 1989. 269-76 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
Problems concerning the use of 1980 census data to prepare population projections at the regional level in Brazil are examined, with particular attention to the preparation of estimates of future mortality trends. A mathematical model to prepare regional projections is developed and applied to data for the state of Rio de Janeiro for the period 1981-1990.
Correspondence: C. L. Szwarcwald, Centro de Informacoes para a Saude/Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Av. Brasil 4365, 21040 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:20099 Umpleby, Stuart A. The scientific revolution in demography. Population and Environment, Vol. 11, No. 3, Spring 1990. 159-74 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author reviews aspects of the ongoing debate between demographers and natural scientists over world population projections and methods for constructing them. "Underlying this debate is a disagreement over the factors which influence human population growth....Also at issue are different philosophies concerning the manipulation of data. The debate between demographers and natural scientists bears many of the features of a scientific revolution as described by Thomas Kuhn. The new theory also meets the criterion of scientific growth contained in the correspondence principle. The theories used by demographers and natural scientists have political implications, since the demographers assume stability whereas the natural scientists observe instability."
Correspondence: S. A. Umpleby, George Washington University, Department of Management Science, Washington, D.C. 20052. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20100 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS] (London, England). Population projections. Microfiche. Population projections by sex and age for United Kingdom, Great Britain and constituent countries from mid 1987. Series PP2, No. 16, ISBN 0-11-691268-5. 1989. vi, 38 pp. London, England. In Eng.
These projections, prepared by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, are for the United Kingdom, the island of Great Britain, and the four constituent countries. They are presented by age and sex for the period 1987-2057. The report contains a summary of the projections, which are available in greater detail in microfiche as part of the publication.
Correspondence: HMSO Publications Centre, PO Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20101 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projections, 1950-2025. [America Latina: proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 23, No. 45, Jan 1990. xi, 144 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the period 1950-2025 for Latin America and the Caribbean and also for individual countries. More detailed data are provided for Latin America and the 20 countries in that region. The estimates and projections are provided by age group and sex for five-year intervals from 1950 to 2025.
Correspondence: Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20102 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. Volume 1: methods for comprehensive planning. Module 2: methods for preparing school enrolment, labour force and employment. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/90/Add1, 1990. xxx, 471 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is the second of three projected modules of the first volume of a manual on projection methods for integrating population concerns into development planning, which is being prepared [by the United Nations]....Module Two describes methods for making projections on school enrolment, labour force and employment, which are part of a larger set of techniques described in the volume. These techniques can be used to make a series of interrelated projections of demographic and socio-economic variables for comprehensive planning that take into account key linkages between population and socio-economic change."
For Module 1, published in 1989, see 55:40094.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20103 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Projections of the voting-age population for states: November 1990. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1059, Apr 1990. 19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents projections of the [U.S.] population of voting age (18 years and over) for States to November 1, 1990, by broad age groups and sex and for the White, Black, and Other races populations....In addition to projections of the voting-age population for States for 1990, this report includes voting-age population estimates and the percent voting for President in 1988 and 1984 and House of Representatives in 1988, 1986 and 1982."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20104 Vining, Daniel R. The 'demographic problem' in Israel. Mankind Quarterly, Vol. 30, No. 1-2, Fall-Winter 1989. 65-9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the question of the relative rate of growth of the Jewish and non-Jewish population of Israel, including the Occupied Territories. Using official Israeli data, he concludes that if present conditions continue, the non-Jewish population of Greater Israel will continue to grow more rapidly than the Jewish population and will constitute a majority of the population within 30 years.
Correspondence: D. R. Vining, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

56:20105 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Population trends in Luxembourg. [L'evolution demographique au Luxembourg.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 35, No. 9, 1989. 231-55 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population trends in Luxembourg in 1988 are reviewed. Separate consideration is given to fertility, nuptiality and divorce, mortality, natural increase and migration, adoption, age and sex structure, and spatial distribution. Data are provided separately for the foreign resident population.
For a previous report concerning 1987, see 54:40083.
Correspondence: STATEC, Boite Postale 304, 19-21 Boulevard Royal, 2013 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20106 Smith, Stanley K.; Ahmed, Bashir. A demographic analysis of the population growth of states, 1950-1980. Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 30, No. 2, May 1990. 209-27 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
Factors affecting regional differences in population growth in the United States are explored. "In this study, we estimated the contributions of births, deaths, and migration to changes in population size between 1950 and 1980 for the 48 contiguous states in the United States. We found that population momentum (i.e., the growth that would occur in a closed population if fertility and mortality rates remained constant) had the largest effect on population growth in most states, but that differences in net migration were the major cause of state-to-state differences in growth rates. We also found that net migration has been gaining in importance compared to natural increase as a component of population growth. We expect this trend to continue in coming decades."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 429).
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Gainsville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).


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