Volume 56 - Number 1 - Spring 1990

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

56:10688 Barro, Robert J.; Becker, Gary S. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 2, Mar 1989. 481-501 pp. Evanston, Illinois. In Eng.
"Altruistic parents make choices of family size along with decisions about consumption and intergenerational transfers. We apply this framework to a closed economy, where the determination of interest rates and wage rates is simultaneous with the determination of population growth and the accumulation of capital. Thus, we extend the literature on optimal economic growth to allow for optimizing choices of fertility and intergenerational transfers. We use the model to assess the effects of child-rearing costs, the tax system, the conditions of technology and preferences, and shocks to the initial levels of population and the capital stock."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10689 Bhat, P. N. Mari. Estimating transition probabilities of age misstatement. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 149-63 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The author proposes "an indirect method of estimating gross age errors from essentially the same data needed for the computation of net age errors, namely, a population's recorded age distribution and an estimate of its true age distribution. The estimation methodology is based on the biproportional adjustment algorithm, which is outlined in the next section. Later sections deal with the application of the procedure to Indian data of 1971-1981, which helps elucidate some of the finer points of the estimation procedure as well as the insights to be obtained from knowing gross age errors."
Correspondence: P. N. M. Bhat, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum 695 011, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10690 Blanchet, Didier. Population growth and increase in per capita product during the demographic transition: their interaction viewed in the light of a Malthusian model. [Croissance de la population et du produit par tete au cours de la transition demographique: un modele malthusien peut-il rendre compte de leurs relations?] Population, Vol. 44, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 613-29 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper examines how the relationship between economic and demographic growth rates will vary in a model of the demographic transition where both growth rates are simultaneously pulled by an exogenous trend of technical progress. Such a model can be labelled Malthusian, by comparison with models of endogenous technical progress, to which it is usual to associate the name of E. Boserup. We show that such a model can predict some correlations between the two growth rates which are first positive and then negative." World Bank data are used to illustrate the model's accurate reflection of the situation in developing countries.
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10691 Chandrasekaran, C.; Narayana, K. R. A comparative study of the application of the cross-check and indirect methods for estimating vital rates using data of the Mysore Population Survey, India. Demography India, Vol. 17, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1988. 161-85 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a comparative study of two procedures for estimating vital rates in developing countries. The authors examine the quality of the estimates of birth and death rates provided by the cross-check method and an indirect estimation technique using data obtained from the Mysore Population Survey conducted in 1961 in India.
Correspondence: C. Chandrasekaran, SRI KRIPA, 79/3 Benson Cross Road, Bangalore 560 046, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10692 Clogg, Clifford C.; Massagli, Michael P.; Eliason, Scott R. Population undercount and social science research. Social Indicators Research, Vol. 21, No. 6, Dec 1989. 559-98 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The undercount problem in the [U.S.] decennial census has important implications for social science research based directly or indirectly on census data. Because undercount rates (or coverage rates) vary by age, race, residence, and other factors typically studied in social research, important conceptual difficulties arise in using census results to corroborate sampling frames or to validate survey results. Differential undercount, particularly for analyses based on small areas, could produce substantial variability in prevalence rates in cases where the denominators for those rates are derived from the census. Several examples where the undercount problem arises in social science research, including survey research, are considered. The adjustment problem--whether to adjust, how to adjust, and how much to adjust--is also considered from the point of view of social science research."
Correspondence: C. C. Clogg, Pennsylvania State University, Sociology Department, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10693 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. A biographical approach to demography. [L'approche biographique en demographie.] Revue Francaise de Sociologie, Vol. 31, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 55-74, 169-70, 172-4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
The merits of a biographical approach to demographic analysis are examined using survey data. "The analysis of complex interaction between diverse phenomena, using bivariate or multivariate models has been elaborated, and it allows the discovery of various types of dependence between events (reciprocal or unilateral) or of their independence. At this stage, heterogeneity of the observed populations was introduced, with the help of parametric or semi-parametric models, which point out the different strategies followed. The problems caused by non-observed heterogeneity have been partially solved but interdisciplinary collaboration would now appear to be necessary."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10694 Feichtinger, Gustav; Sorger, Gerhard. Capital accumulation, aspiration adjustment, and population growth: limit cycles in an Easterlin-type model. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990. 93-103, 161 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"One of the recent interesting hypotheses of population growth is due to Easterlin who suggests the possibility of self-generating fluctuations in birth numbers. The present paper tries to answer the question whether feedback mechanisms produce persistent oscillations in population growth. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the per capita capital stock and the aspiration level is studied by a phase portrait analysis. Using the Poincare-Bendixson theorem we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a stable limit cycle."
Correspondence: G. Feichtinger, Technische Universitat, Institut fur Okonometrie, Operations Research und Systemtheorie, Argentinierstrasse 8/119, 1040 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10695 Gill, Richard; Keilman, Nico. On the estimation of multidimensional demographic models with population registration data. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990. 119-43, 161 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper the estimation of multidimensional demographic models is investigated in situations where population registration data are available. With this kind of aggregate data, estimation by traditional methods is not possible. We look at two versions of the multidimensional model: the constant intensities model and the linear integration model. Some logical inconsistencies in the derivation of the latter are discussed. In particular, we argue that the linear integration model is not compatible with a Markov process. A new algorithm for the estimation of the constant intensities model with population registration data is proposed. Some preliminary results on the mathematical and statistical properties of this method are given. The algorithm is applied to Dutch nuptiality data."
Correspondence: R. Gill, Centre for Mathematics and Computer Science, P.O. Box 4079, 1009 AB Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10696 Gonul, Fusun F. Comparison of hazard functions with duration dependence and stayer-mover structure with an application to divorce. Economics Letters, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1989. 31-6 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Performances of hazard functions with an implicit stayer-mover structure are examined in Monte Carlo samples. The results are then applied to data on duration of first marriages." The data concern 649 women from the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey aged 14-24 when first interviewed in 1968.
Correspondence: F. F. Gonul, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10697 Graham, Wendy; Brass, William. Evaluation of field work on the sisterhood method for measuring maternal mortality. [Evaluacion del trabajo de campo del metodo de la sobrevivencia de hermanas para medir la mortalidad materna.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47, Apr-Aug 1988. 77-103 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The authors describe the use of the sisterhood method for estimating maternal mortality. An introductory chapter considers characteristics of maternal mortality that affect its measurement. The main section of the article describes the collection of information in field trials conducted in the Gambia and Peru. In the last section, the method's effectiveness is compared with that of other techniques for measuring maternal mortality.
Correspondence: W. Graham, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10698 Guzman, Jose M. The previous birth technique: the Latin American experience. [El procedimiento del hijo previo: la experiencia latinoamericana.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47, Apr-Aug 1988. 41-75 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The author describes the use of the previous birth technique, developed by Brass and Macrae, in Latin American countries. The technique involves the estimation of infant and child mortality using data on the survivorship of previous children. The focus is on the experiences of CELADE in collecting data in maternity hospitals in Argentina, Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras. The inclusion of survey questions related to dates of birth and death of the previous child is evaluated.
Correspondence: J. M. Guzman, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10699 Keyfitz, Nathan. The profile of intercohort increase. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990. 105-17, 161 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper develops a technique for identifying the cohorts that initiated what in the 1950s was designated the population explosion. A numerical example is given for Indonesia, but essentially the same picture appears for many other countries, and for the aggregate of the world. The intercohort increase can be estimated for each age using two successive censuses; the method here developed gives very nearly the same increase whatever age is used for the estimate."
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10700 Kupiszewski, Marek. The use of Rogers's projection model in the study of changes in the location and structure of the population in Poland. [Vyuziti Rogersova projekcniho modelu pri studiu zmen rozmisteni a struktury obyvatelstva v Polsku.] Demografie, Vol. 31, No. 4, 1989. 339-46 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze.
The author describes how the multiregional mathematical demographic techniques developed by Andrei Rogers and others have been applied to the study of changes in the spatial distribution and characteristics of the population in Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10701 Lopez Rios, Olga; Wunsch, Guillaume. Causality, systems, and dynamic models. Three approaches of the explanation in demography. [Causalidad, sistemas y modelos dinamicos. Tres enfoques de la explicacion en demografia.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47, Apr-Aug 1988. 121-34 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The authors compare three methods of demographic analysis: "causal analysis, the transition models and the dynamic models. The purpose of these three approaches is not the same: transition models examine the transformation of a system during a given period; the dynamic model outlines the evolution of a social process through time; the causal analysis describes the mechanism through which the causes produce its effects. The three approaches differ also in the way they take time into account...[In particular,] causal static models are not pertinent in demographic research."
Correspondence: O. Lopez Rios, Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1, Boite 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10702 Moreland, R. Scott. Modeling for population, human resources and equity: selected papers from the Arab and International Meeting on Modeling for Development Planning. ISBN 9973-14-00-1. 1988. vi, 241 pp. League of Arab States, Population Research Unit: Tunis, Tunisia. In Eng.
Selected papers are presented from a meeting on the use of modeling in development planning, held in Rabat, Morocco, in April 1985. The seminar focused on second-generation models involving behavioral relationships. "The main objective of the seminar was to discuss features of these models, their structure, constraints, and results if implemented and to examine what one can expect when people are explicitly incorporated into development models. Another objective was to see how economic-human modeling in the Arab region can benefit accordingly. A third objective was to discuss the contribution of these models to the planning process, and their relevance to the specific economies of the region. Finally, the seminar served as an opportunity for interaction between planners and decision-makers in the Arab world and international and Arab experts specialized in modeling for development planning."
Correspondence: League of Arab States, Population Research Unit, 37 Avenue Khereddine Pacha, Tunis, Tunisia. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

56:10703 Phibbs, Peter. Demographic-economic impact forecasting in non-metropolitan regions: an Australian example. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 150-64 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
Some problems concerning impact forecasts generated by input-output analysis are considered, particularly as they affect changes in service employment. Using the example of the impact of a coal mine expansion in New South Wales, Australia, the author shows how these problems can be overcome by using a simple demographic-economic impact model.
Correspondence: P. Phibbs, University of Sydney, Department of Town and Country Planning, Sydney, New South Wales 2006, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10704 Pitt, Mark M.; Rosenzweig, Mark R. The selectivity of fertility and the determinants of human capital investments: parametric and semi-parametric estimates. Economic Development Center Bulletin, No. 89-9, Oct 1989. 37 pp. University of Minnesota, Department of Economics, Economic Development Center: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"In this paper we assess the importance of heterogeneity and selective fertility in altering estimates and interpretations of the determinants of the human capital of children. We set out a sequential model of human capital investments in children incorporating endogenous fertility and heterogeneity in human capital endowments to illustrate the fertility selection problem and issues of identification. Empirical results based on parametric and semi-parametric estimates of selectivity models applied to data on birthweight and schooling in Malaysia indicate that the hypothesis of no fertility selection is strongly rejected, with mothers having higher birthweight children tending to have substantially lower birth probabilities (negative birth selectivity). As a consequence, the positive association between mother's schooling and birthweight is substantially underestimated and the positive effects of delaying childbearing overestimated when birth selectivity is not taken into account."
Correspondence: M. M. Pitt, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10705 Rodriguez, A. The dependency ratio and optimum population growth. The total utility case. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, Oct 1988. 141-56 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper examines the effects of introducing a variable dependency ratio in Dasgupta's (1969) model. We consider a case in which the probability of dying as well as the rate of participation in the labor force change with age. It is shown that the inclusion of those realistic demographic features slows down the optimal rate of population growth and increases the rate of consumption. In spite of the reduction in the rate of population growth, this rate can still be positive. The sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the demographic parameters of the model is examined."
Correspondence: A. Rodriquez, Rutgers University, Department of Economics, New Jersey Hall, New Brunswick, NJ 08903. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10706 Rogers, Andrei. The multistate stable population model with immigration. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-89-4, Jul 1989. 45 pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper outlines the discrete-time and continuous-time formulations of the stable population model with immigration, showing their commonality. It then illustrates how the model can be extended to include multiple interacting populations, and goes on to consider a multistate version of reproductive value that further illuminates the evolutionary dynamics of an 'open' model of multistate population growth and redistribution. Attention is restricted to results arising from a fertility regime that is below replacement level." The models are illustrated using data for the United States.
Correspondence: University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10707 Singarimbun, Masri. Micro-demographic approach: harmonization between demography and anthropology. [Pendekatan mikro demografi: perpaduan antara demografi dan antropologi.] Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 16, No. 31, Jun 1989. 1-15 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses demographic microanalysis, the reasons for using this approach, and the advantages and disadvantages of sampling studies.
Correspondence: M. Singarimbun, Universitas Gajah Mada, Pusat Penelitian Studi Kependudukan, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta 55281, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10708 Stark, O.; Yitzhaki, S. Merging populations, stochastic dominance and Lorenz curves. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, Oct 1988. 157-61 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"In typical comparisons of inequality the condition that the means of the distributions are equal is hardly met. In these cases, the widely used Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for stochastic dominance. It is suggested to replace the Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion with an absolute Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion. The implications of adopting this criterion are discussed in the context of fixed populations and changing populations."
Correspondence: O. Stark, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10709 Townsend, Nicholas; Hammel, E. A. Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: an aid to demographic surveys. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 165-74 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The reporting of children's ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children's teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child's age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children's dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set."
Correspondence: N. Townsend, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10710 Tyler, P.; Rhodes, J. A model with which to forecast employment and population change at the regional and sub-regional level. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 124-49 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
The authors describe current efforts to produce a regional and subregional population and employment forecasting model for the United Kingdom. The project is being developed jointly by the Department of Land Economy at Cambridge University and PA Cambridge Economic Consultants. The model emphasizes the importance of forecasting the growth of labor demand at regional and local levels. The model is illustrated using data for the Southeast of England.
Correspondence: P. Tyler, University of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10711 Ulm, K. A simple method to calculate the confidence interval of a standardized mortality ratio (SMR). American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 131, No. 2, Feb 1990. 373-5 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"In analyzing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), it is of interest to calculate a confidence interval for the true SMR. The exact limits of a specific interval can be obtained by means of the Poisson distribution either within an iterative procedure or by one of the tables. The limits can be approximated in using one of various shortcut methods. In this paper, a method is described for calculating the exact limits in a simple and easy way."
Correspondence: K. Ulm, Technical University of Munich, Institute for Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, 8000 Munich 80, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10712 Venkatacharya, K. Simplified birth rate estimates under nonstable conditions. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 131-47 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The author evaluates Coale's robust birth rate estimate by "using two improved approximations....In Coale's birth rate estimation, the denominator of the birth rate, that is, person years, is adjusted for nonstability. By varying this criterion of adjustment, I show that two new types of Coale robust birth rate estimate can be obtained. These variations in the construction of the birth rate lead to nine forms of Coale's birth rate estimate. Under very general conditions, all of these birth rate estimates are equal to the birth rate obtainable by the reverse survival method. A simplified birth rate estimate is derived that does away with the need to refer to the stable or life table models...." The model is illustrated with data for nine African countries.
For the paper by Ansley Coale, published in 1981, see 48:20268.
Correspondence: K. Venkatacharya, University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10713 Wunsch, Guillaume. Causal theory and causal modeling: beyond description in the social sciences. ISBN 90-6186-282-5. 1988. 200 pp. Leuven University Press: Louvain, Belgium. In Eng.
A number of basic problems of data analysis in the social sciences are addressed in this study, with some emphasis on demography. The author is concerned "with conceptualization, with the assessment of the reliability and validity of indicators, with the congruence of theory with statistical models, and--most prominently--with causal thinking and with causal modeling."
Correspondence: Leuven University Press, Krakenstraat 3, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10714 Zaba, Basia. Relational models: their uses in demography. CPS Research Paper, No. 89-1, ISBN 0-902657-25-9. Aug 1989. iv, 34 pp. University of London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies: London, England. In Eng.
"This paper will review the use which has been made of relational models in demographic analysis, and show how several original ideas of Brass have been copied, built upon and adapted by other demographers, so that his contributions in this field are even wider than the collection of papers which actually bear his name. The simple mathematical ideas underlying the relational models of fertility, mortality and migration are summarised briefly and some of their newer applications are discussed."
Correspondence: University of London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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