K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

K.1. Economic Development and Population

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

56:10569 Bental, Benjamin. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 4, Mar 1989. 285-301 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper carries out a welfare analysis of population growth under an extreme version of the old age security hypothesis. The cost of having children is exogenous and fixed, and the transfer from children to parents is also exogenous and fixed." A Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations model is described in detail, and the optimum population growth rate and capital labor ratio are derived. Some policy implications are considered, and a monetary version of the model is presented.
Correspondence: B. Bental, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management, Haifa 32000, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10570 Blanchet, Didier. Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1988. 183-94 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper reexamines the problem of the relationship between demographic growth and per capita income in neo-classical growth models with age-structured populations. It is suggested that, when they assume a constant rate of capital depreciation, such models overestimate the negative impact of population growth through capital dilution effects. With more realistic depreciation schedules, the ageing of the capital stock which results from lower growth implies a higher overall depreciation rate, which reduces benefits from lower capital dilution. The implications of this observation are examined for the existence of an optimum population growth rate, for models with heterogeneous capital, and for models where capital obsolescence is not fixed but is allowed to vary."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institute National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10571 van Imhoff, Evert. Age structure, education, and the transmission of technical change. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1988. 167-81 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"This paper presents a model of optimal economic growth with exogenous technical change that is embodied in people. That is, newly invented techniques can be used only if the production unit engages labour that has been trained to produce according to this new technique. The model illustrates the negative impact of slower population growth on the rate of technology adaptation. When the growth rate of population is high, the introduction of technological innovations into the production process is primarily achieved through the constant influx of recently educated young people. When the relative share of this influx is reduced, increased education becomes necessary in order to prevent the gap between technology in theory and technology in practice from becoming too large."
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, NL-2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10572 van Praag, Bernard M. S. The notion of population economics. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 1, Jun 1988. 5-16 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
This is a paper presented at the First Congress of the European Society for Population Economics, held in Rotterdam, Netherlands, in September 1987. The author, former president of the Society, discusses population economics and the reasons for having established the Society. "We consider how population may change due to other factors, and how inversely the changes in population will influence demand and supply. This being realized we consider what might be the optimization problem of a central policy maker if population may be influenced. We shall consider more in detail which instruments are available to realize a population policy, provided that we like to have an active population policy. We end with pointing to the fact that everything may be embedded in a market framework with no central planning."
Correspondence: B. M. S. van Praag, Erasmus University, Econometric Institute, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10573 Veron, Jacques. Elements of the population-development debate. [Elements du debat population developpement.] Les Dossiers du CEPED, No. 9, ISBN 2-87762-010-7. Nov 1989. 50 pp. Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author summarizes the main themes of the debate concerning the relationship between population and development. The work contains short introductions to the arguments among Malthusians, anti-Malthusians, and others on aspects of this relationship. Equal consideration is given to economic and noneconomic factors. A bibliography is included.
Correspondence: CEPED, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Medecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

56:10574 Bilsborrow, Richard E. The demographics of macro-economic-demographic models. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 26, 1989. 39-83 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to assess the state of the art regarding economic-demographic models of the interrelationships between population and socio-economic development in low-income countries. The assessment focuses on demographic functions [of fertility, mortality and migration], and on methodological rather than substantive issues, to help identify where different or modified functions and approaches would be both feasible and methodologically superior. Recommendations are made with a view to improving the utility of the models for governmental planners."
Correspondence: R. E. Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square 300A, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10575 Brown, Janet W. In the U.S. interest: resources, growth, and security in the developing world. A World Resources Institute Book, ISBN 0-8133-1053-9. LC 89-48380. 1990. [xii], 228 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
This book is the result of a project undertaken by the World Resources Institute to address the need for north-south cooperation concerning the relationships among population, resources, and the environment. The focus is on the relevance of trends and events in developing countries to U.S. interests and on how important resource management, the control of environmental degradation, and the slowing of population growth are to their economic and political future. Following a general introduction, case studies by various authors are presented on Mexico, the Philippines, Egypt, and Kenya. A final chapter summarizes the implications of the case study findings for future U.S. policy.
Correspondence: Westview Press, 5500 Central Avenue, Boulder, CO 80301. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10576 Feng, Litian; Wang, Shuxin; Meng, Haohan. An analysis of the investment on minor population in Beijing. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 57-68 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
Population investment, or the total cost expended on an individual from birth to age 16, is examined for Beijing, China. The authors focus on the cost of training a minor to become a member of the labor force.
Correspondence: L. Feng, Beijing College of Economics, Institute of Population Economics, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10577 House, William J. Population, poverty, and underdevelopment in the Southern Sudan. Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol. 27, No. 2, Jun 1989. 201-31 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Socioeconomic and demographic trends in the southern region of the Sudan during the period before the second phase of the civil war in 1983 are examined. The author reviews population, poverty, and development conditions including food supply, nutrition, mortality, health, water quality, sanitation, and education. Implications for future social policies and international assistance are discussed.
Correspondence: W. J. House, ILO Population and Human Resources Adviser, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning, Khartoum, Sudan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10578 Kamuzora, C. L. Critical issues in population-development interrelationships and policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review, Vol. 4, No. 1, Jan 1988. 1-15 pp. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
The relationship between population growth and socioeconomic development in Africa is examined. Using the example of Tanzania, the author argues that population growth has had no causal effect on development, although development variables have affected demographic variables. However, it is noted that rapid population growth limits the efforts of government to provide services and is associated with environmental degradation, and that there is a need to control population growth by lowering fertility.
Correspondence: C. L. Kamuzora, University of Dar es Salaam, POB 35091, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10579 Lele, Uma; Stone, Steven W. Population pressure, the environment and agricultural intensification: variations on the Boserup hypothesis. MADIA Discussion Paper, No. 4, ISBN 0-8213-1320-7. LC 89-22728. 1989. 79 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper we explore the relationship among population densities, agricultural production, land, labor, and rural incomes to expand the explanatory base of the Boserup hypothesis, which holds that with increasing population densities, a corresponding shift to greater agricultural production and more intensive use of the land takes place autonomously through the development of market forces." The authors survey existing literature and compile regional data for Cameroon, Tanzania, Senegal, Kenya, Malawi, and Nigeria "to isolate variables in the equation linking the intensity of land use, the increasing opportunity costs of idle or fallow periods, the effects of continuous cropping on the soil, and their policy implications." The authors document several limitations to the original Boserup model and show "that higher yields, better inputs, and larger incomes for small farmers do not axiomatically follow from higher population densities or more frequent cropping of the land."
Correspondence: World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10580 Livingstone, Ian. Structural adjustment: long-term interactions between demographic and economic variables in Africa. School of Development Studies Discussion Paper, No. 201, ISBN 1-871546-31-1. 1987. 38 pp. University of East Anglia, School of Development Studies: Norwich, England. In Eng.
The relationship between demographic factors, particularly population growth, and economic variables in Africa is analyzed. "The rate of population growth in Sub-Saharan countries is not only high, but will increase over the rest of the century....The absolute number of people can be expected to at least double over the next thirty or so years....The potential impact of these numbers...[is assessed by considering] how they will be absorbed into agriculture and...an expanding urban sector." The author focuses on the characteristics of the urban economies that face increasing numbers of rural-to-urban migrants seeking greater income opportunities.
Correspondence: University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10581 Maitra, Priyatosh. Recent approaches to development, and population growth and technological change. Indian Journal of Economics, No. 68, Jan 1988. 299-324 pp. Allahabad, India. In Eng.
"This paper will attempt to study the question of the relationship between population growth and technological change in recent approaches to development." The focus is on the relative merits of the private sector approach to development over the public sector approach. The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: P. Maitra, University of Otago, Department of Economics, Dunedin, New Zealand. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10582 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques (Rabat, Morocco). Socio-demographic variables in Morocco: the interrelationships. [Variables socio-demographiques au Maroc: les interdependances.] Etudes Demographiques, 1989. 215 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This work represents an attempt to integrate selected demographic variables into the socioeconomic development process in Morocco. The first chapter investigates the influence of domestic consumption on such variables as infant mortality, age at marriage and fertility, the rural exodus and rural-urban migration, urbanization, and literacy and education. The next chapter examines how demographic factors affect consumption and household expenditure. The demographic impact of an irrigation project is then analyzed. Chapters are also included on the proximate determinants of fertility in Morocco and on the mortality of young children in relation to the use of available health services and characteristics of the milieu in which the child is raised.
Correspondence: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques, Direction de la Statistique, B. P. 178, Charii Maa El Ainain, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10583 Ominde, S. H. Kenya's population growth and development to the year 2000. ISBN 9966-46-744-0. LC 89-3080. 1988. x, 141 pp. Heinemann Kenya: Nairobi, Kenya; James Currey: London, England. In Eng.
This is a collection of 13 studies by various authors on aspects of the relationship between population and development in Kenya. "The first group [of studies] deals with methodological problems the solution of which has greatly enlarged our capacity to see the future. The second outlines Kenya's demographic and socio-cultural scene and the third explores the role of the family and the status of women. The fourth part...gives us the socio-cultural dimension of future population issues. The final part is an attempt to remind us that the solution of Kenya's population issue in terms of the future calls for an increasing measure of co-operation at the regional and international levels."
Correspondence: Heinemann Kenya, Kijabe Street, P.O. Box 45314, Nairobi, Kenya. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10584 Schubnell, Hermann. The population situation in the least developed countries. [Die Bevolkerungssituation in den am wenigsten entwickelten Landern.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 15, No. 2, 1989. 115-32 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author discusses population trends in the least-developed countries of the world, defined by the United Nations as a subgroup of the less-developed countries. "According to the United Nations criteria 41 countries with altogether 371 million inhabitants or eight percent of the world's population belong to the least developed countries." Family planning, fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality rate, poverty, and economic and social development are described. The author concludes that "the least developed countries not only show the least social and economic development, but also affected by great poverty, high mortality, high birth rates, and a strong population growth. These countries can only solve their problems with the aid of the international community."
Correspondence: H. Schubnell, Steinhalde 95, 7800 Freiburg-Ebnet, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10585 Sosa Lopez, Jose de J. Economic development and urban concentration in Latin America. [Desarrollo economico y concentracion urbana en America Latina.] Comercio Exterior, Vol. 39, No. 9, Sep 1989. 743-50 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The effects of industrialization policies and of the subsequent urbanization and regional development in Latin America are reviewed. The author notes that the process of urbanization in Latin America has not been accompanied by an equal level of industrialization. The significance of regional and social inequalities in the development process is noted.
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10586 Taamallah, Khemaies. Population and employment in Tunisia. Journal of Regional Policy, Vol. 8, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1988. 501-19 pp. Naples, Italy. In Eng.
The relationship between population dynamics and employment in Tunisia since its independence is examined. The main focus is on governmental efforts to cope with the rapid increase in the working-age population.
Correspondence: K. Taamallah, University of Tunis, Department of Sociology, Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur, Rue Beja, Tunis, Tunisia. Location: New York Public Library.

56:10587 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). Frameworks for population and development integration. Volume 1: ESCAP regional perspectives. Proceedings of the regional seminar on frameworks for population and development planning. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 92, Pub. Order No. ST/ESCAP/685. 1988. vi, 242 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This publication is the result of a project on the development of an analytical framework for population and development research and planning. Four countries were selected for investigation: Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand. The publication contains a report of a seminar held in Bangkok, Thailand, in June 1988, and a selection of background papers presenting ESCAP regional perspectives on population and development interrelationships. Topics covered in these papers include poverty, women's development, the welfare of the aged, the environment, education, and health and nutrition. A related volume containing reports of the country studies will be published separately.
Correspondence: ESCAP, Population Information Section, Population Division, United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10588 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). Frameworks for population and development integration. Volume 2: Bangladesh, Nepal, Philippines, Thailand. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 93, Pub. Order No. ST/ESCAP/686. 1989. vi, 413 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This is a report on a project developed by ESCAP to provide information for planning purposes on the relationship between population and development. The report consists of proceedings from a project seminar and consists of two volumes: Volume 1, which is published separately, and the present volume, which includes reports on Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand. The case studies examine such aspects as the relationships among population and health, education, women's status, basic needs, the environment, poverty, nutrition, and old-age security.
For Volume 1, published in 1988, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: ESCAP, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10589 Visaria, Pravin. Population and sustainable development. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 27, 1989. 1-12 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper assesses the feasibility of sustainable development for various low-income countries in the context of prospective population growth. In that context, development that is sustainable is development that does not endanger the natural systems that support life on earth....Emphasis in this paper is placed on an assessment of recent trends in food production and availability, employment and poverty issues, with a focus on India, China and a few other Asian countries on which the author had access to information. In the view of the author, the key to sustained development...lies in technological change and effective use of the human and physical resources in developing countries."
Correspondence: P. Visaria, Gujarat Institute of Area Planning, Pritamrai Marg, Post Bag 2, Ahmedabad 380 006, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10590 Zhang, Zhigang. Population increase and economic development--a research into the relation between the rural population and economy in China from 1949 to 1979. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jun 1989. 1-17 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author reviews the relationship between China's economic development and its population increase. The focus is on agricultural development and rural population growth during the period 1949-1979. The effects of fertility change, income distribution, and socioeconomic factors are considered.
Correspondence: Z. Zhang, People's University of China, Economics Institute, 39 Haidian Road, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

56:10591 Anton, F. R. Demographic change: the economic implications of an aging population. Department of Economics Discussion Paper, No. 112, Sep 1988. 39 pp. University of Calgary, Department of Economics: Calgary, Canada. In Eng.
The author examines the economic implications of demographic aging in Canada and the United States. "This study will begin by examining the implications of projected population changes on the level and structure of government expenditure to the year 2025. An attempt will be made to assess the impact of these demographic changes on social outlays for medical care, education, pensions, welfare payments, unemployment insurance, and family allowances....Data [are from] the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economic Council of Canada (ECC) and the Woods Gordon study."
Correspondence: University of Calgary, Department of Economics 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10592 Baran, Alina; Panek, Tomasz; Pustola, Elzbieta. Relations between demographic and socioeconomic processes in selected European countries, 1950-1980. [Powiazania procesow demograficznych i spoleczno-ekonomicznych w wybranych krajach Europejskich w latach 1950-1980.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 253, LC 88-155549. 1987. 178 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This is a comparative analysis of the relations between socioeconomic development and demographic factors in 22 European countries between 1950 and 1980. Two groups of countries were identified in which the relationship was similar, one consisting primarily of northern and western countries, the other of southern and eastern countries. The United Kingdom fell into neither category.
For a related study, also published in 1987, see 53:30673.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

56:10593 Barff, Richard A. Migration and labour supply in New England. Geoforum, Vol. 20, No. 3, 1989. 293-302 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author links changes in regional employment with demographic changes in New England during the relative economic boom that occurred in the region during the 1980s. It is noted that during this period, "New England had a very slow rate of natural population growth. The relatively high rate of growth in jobs coupled with the relatively stable population has produced labour shortages in parts of the region. It is demonstrated that the labour supply has become dependent on migrants from other regions. If the economic expansion continues, the region must significantly increase its net migration gains. If immigration to the region remains sluggish, the revival will be short-lived."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 428).
Correspondence: R. A. Barff, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH 03755. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

56:10594 Bourcier de Carbon, Philippe. Some major effects of demographic aging in France over the last few decades. [De quelques effets majeurs du vieillissement demographique en France au cours des dernieres decennies.] Population et Avenir, No. 595, Aug-Oct 1989. 2-5 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The negative effects of demographic aging in developed countries are analyzed, using the example of France. The author concludes that the growing burden on the working-age population of providing social security for the elderly is causing a decrease in fertility and an increase in unemployment, thereby contributing to the economic problems of developed countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10595 Davies, James B. Family size, household production, and life cycle saving. Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, No. 9, Jan-Mar 1988. 141-65 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Changing family size and labour-leisure choice are introduced into a life cycle model. Saving corresponds with empirical observation in some ways better, and in others worse, as a result. Changing family size reduces aggregate saving and generates substantial dissaving at peak size, indicating that bequests, uncertainty, and liquidity constraints should also be modelled. However, the age profile of consumption is humped, and labour-leisure choice produces a drop in consumption on retirement, both corresponding well with observation."
Correspondence: J. B. Davies, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics, London, Ontario N6A 562, Canada. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

56:10596 Demmer, Kurt. Stability policy problems of population decline in the Federal Republic of Germany. [Stabilitatspolitische Probleme des Bevolkerungsruckgangs in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.] Duisburger Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, Vol. 2, ISBN 3-89161-802-6. LC 88-170945. 1987. iv, 227 pp. Steuer- und Wirtschaftsverlag: Hamburg, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The effects of future population decrease on the stability of the market economy system in West Germany are analyzed. Topics discussed include past and projected demographic trends, the impact of population decline on economic supply and demand and on the stability of the system, and the implications for stability policies.
Correspondence: Steuer- und Wirtschaftsverlag GmbH, Agnesstrasse 60, 2000 Hamburg 60, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

56:10597 Ekert-Jaffe, Olivia. Aging and consumption: findings from French household expenditure surveys. [Vieillissement et consommation: quelques resultats tires des enquetes francaises sur les budgets des menages.] Population, Vol. 44, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 561-79 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"In this study an attempt is made to predict the consequences of ageing on household consumption [in France] by considering behaviour which is related to age, independently of income or economic conditions. Information from surveys on consumer expenditure by age of respondent carried out in 1971, 1979 and 1985 make it possible to define consumption patterns which are related to ageing. Excluding expenditure on health care, those aged 70 or over spent less on food, clothing and repairs, but there was an increase with age of expenditure on housing repairs and energy....On the basis of individual expenditure for 1979, and estimating the cost of a child as 40 per cent of that of an adult, projections for the year 2050 showed that consumption per head would rise by a maximum of nine per cent as a result of ageing, if the standard of living of 1979 was to be preserved and fertility continued to be low. This figure agrees with trends observed between 1971 and 1973."
Correspondence: O. Ekert-Jaffe, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10598 Ermisch, John. Intergenerational transfers in industrialised countries: effects of age distribution and economic institutions. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 269-84 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The modest aim of this paper is to estimate the net direction of intergenerational transfers (from younger to older ages or vice versa) in two industrialized societies with different economic and social institutions and life expectancy, contemporary Britain and Japan. These estimates are compared with estimates for the U.S.A., and their sensitivity to different demographic regimes is explored....The analysis strongly suggests that net transfers are from younger to older generations in contemporary industrialized countries....These transfers can constitute an externality to childbearing, and their direction supports a direct relationship between the rate of population growth and lifetime consumption possibilities in industrialized countries, although this may be offset by a capital dilution effect from faster population growth. The estimates show the strength of the transfer effect being higher for Japan than Britain or the U.S.A., primarily because of the longer life expectancy among the Japanese."
Correspondence: J. Ermisch, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London SW1P 3HE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10599 Farber, Gisela. Financial policy problems with a declining population. [Probleme der Finanzpolitik bei schrumpfender Bevolkerung.] Reihe "Wirtschaftswissenschaft", Vol. 4, ISBN 3-593-33934-X. 1988. xiii, 249 pp. Campus: New York, New York/Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The effects of future population decrease on government financial policy in West Germany are analyzed. Population projections to the year 2033 are first presented. The implications for economic growth, the labor market, and government expenditures and revenues are then discussed.
Correspondence: Campus Verlag, Myliusstrasse 15, 6000 Frankfurt am Main, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10600 Hadzivukovic, Stevan. Population growth and economic development. A case study of Yugoslavia. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3, 1989. 225-34 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The relationship between population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia is explored for the period after World War II. The author points out that the country's demographic and economic structure is unique in Europe, in that it contains relatively developed regions that are past the demographic transition and underdeveloped areas where this process is just beginning. Correlation and regression methods are used to analyze this relationship, and a population policy stressing family planning is suggested.
Correspondence: S. Hadzivukovic, University of Novi Sad, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, Faculty of Agriculture, Veljka Vlahovica 2, YU-21000 Novi Sad, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10601 Hohn, Charlotte. Social consequences of population decline. In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 21. bis 24. September 1987 in Rouen. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 62, 1989. 5-26 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The possible social effects of demographic aging and eventual population decrease in West Germany are discussed, with a focus on the long-term effects after the year 2020. Consideration is given to the very aged, including health-care needs, migration, and living arrangements; the middle-aged population's labor force participation and the dependency burden; the young generation; and foreigners. Questions concerning future changes in societal values are also explored.
Correspondence: C. Hohn, Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, D-6200 Wiesbaden, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10602 Kuroda, Toshio. Population aging in the context of urbanization and industrialization. Population Research Leads, No. 33, 1989. 10 pp. U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This is an abridged version of a forthcoming study on demographic aging in the context of urbanization and industrialization. The geographical focus is on Asia and Oceania, with an emphasis on Japan. The author stresses the needs to utilize elderly workers effectively, to adjust the employment system appropriately, to associate elderly workers with technological change, and to develop a comprehensive, integrated, and coordinated policy in this area.
Correspondence: ESCAP, Population Division, Population Information Section, United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10603 Moffitt, Robert. Demographic behavior and the welfare state: econometric issues in the identification of the effects of tax and transfer programs. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 237-50 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The evaluation of the effects of tax and transfer programs on demographic behavior raises a number of difficult econometric issues related to identification of program effects. The main issue concerns whether there exists the true exogenous variation in program parameters necessary to estimate the effects of the program on behavior. This paper provides a discussion of the types of exogenous variation that are commonly available as well as the pitfalls in using potentially endogenous sources of variation. The general points are illustrated with [a model of consumer demand and] an example drawn from the demographic literature in the United States. The paper concludes with a recommendation that the source of exogenous variation in program parameters be carefully examined in any study undertaken."
Correspondence: R. Moffitt, Brown University, Department of Economics, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10604 Mukherjee, S. B. Population growth and urbanization in South and South-east Asia. ISBN 0-7465-0127-7. 1988. 166 pp. Sterling Publishers Private: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The relationship between population and economic factors in Southern and Southeastern Asia is analyzed, with particular attention paid to urbanization. The first chapter summarizes the situation in the 12 countries in the region selected for the study. A demographic profile of those countries is presented, and the socioeconomic correlates of population growth are analyzed. Chapters are also included on the age composition of the population, urbanization and the growth of major cities, and the relative role of in-migration and natural increase in the growth of large cities. A final chapter looks at population policy issues.
Correspondence: Sterling Publishers Private, Sterling House, L-10 Green Park Extension, New Delhi 110 016, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10605 Prosvirnin, V. F. Demographic issues in the USSR: a political-economic analysis. [Problemy narodonaseleniya v SSSR: politiko-ekonomicheskii analiz.] ISBN 5-288-00273-8. 1989. 110 pp. Izdatel'stvo Leningradskogo Universiteta: Leningrad, USSR. In Rus.
The author analyzes some of the principal socioeconomic aspects of contemporary population in the USSR from the perspective of a Marxist-Leninist theory of population. Factors examined include the content and implementation of demographic policies, employment composition, and sources of income.
Correspondence: Izdatel'stvo Leningradskogo Universiteta, Universitetskaya Nab. 7/9, 199034 Leningrad, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:10606 Schulz, Reiner. Population decline and economic development. In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 21. bis 24. September 1987 in Rouen. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 62, 1989. 209-22 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The relationship between demographic and economic development in industrialized countries is examined, with a focus on the effects of population decline and demographic aging on the labor force and the economy. The need for a highly educated and well-trained labor force to assure sufficient rates of technical progress and productivity is stressed.
Correspondence: R. Schulz, Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, D-6200 Wiesbaden, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

56:10607 Collomb, Philippe. Demographic transition, transition in nutrition. I.--the economic logic. [Transition demographique, transition alimentaire. I.--la logique economique.] Population, Vol. 44, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 583-612 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
This is the first of a two-part article on the relationship between food supply and population in the developing world. The author notes the growing dependence of developing countries on staple cereals, such as rice and wheat, many of which have to be imported. The role of food aid in cases where countries cannot afford to buy the food required by a growing population is considered.
Correspondence: P. Collomb, 20 Square de la Motte Picquet, 75015 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10608 Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. Too many rich folks. Populi, Vol. 16, No. 3, 1989. 20-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors develop the argument that population growth and overpopulation in the developed world pose the main threat to the global future. Specifically, they contend that "it is not crude numbers of people or population density per se that should concern us; it is the impact of people on the life support systems and resources of the planet. That impact can be conceived as the product of three factors: population size; some measure of affluence or consumption per capita; and an index of environmental damage done by the technologies used to supply each unit of affluence." They conclude that "if the habitability of Earth is to be preserved for all our descendants, we have no choice but to end and reverse population growth, limit our consumption of resources, replace damaging technologies with gentler ones, and attempt to design a better, more sustainable civilization."
Correspondence: P. R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10609 Fargues, Philippe. Subsistence crop deficit and family structure in Sub-Saharan Africa. [Deficit vivrier et structures familiales en Afrique au sud du Sahara.] Population, Vol. 44, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 631-48 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The relationship between the subsistence crop deficit and population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is considered. The author notes that women, aided by their children, are primarily responsible for the cultivation of subsistence crops in Africa; as a result, the spread of the rural exodus to women and children may have led to a decrease in food production. Furthermore, it is possible that the scattering of members of the extended family resulting from such migration without a decline in family ties led to a decline in food available to the market system, since it was being kept for distribution within families.
Correspondence: P. Fargues, Institute National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10610 Luthi, Ambros. Ecological limits to population growth. [Okologische Grenzen des Bevolkerungswachstums.] Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique, Vol. 125, No. 3, Sep 1989. 461-72 pp. Bern, Switzerland. In Ger.
The ecological limits to population growth are discussed, and demographic trends in Europe and developing countries are reviewed. Possibilities for achieving an ecological-demographic balance are then considered.
Correspondence: A. Luthi, Universitat Freiburg, Institut fur Automation und Operations Research, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:10611 Raffestin, Claude. The ecological limits to demographic growth. [Les limites ecologiques a la croissance demographique.] Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique, Vol. 125, No. 3, Sep 1989. 453-9 pp. Bern, Switzerland. In Fre.
The ecological limits to world population growth are discussed. Consideration is given to several types of problems, including food supplies, the physical capacity of global ecosystems, and the territorial distribution of populations within those ecosystems.
Correspondence: C. Raffestin, Universite de Geneve, Centre Universitaire d'Ecologie Humaine et des Sciences de l'Environnement, 9 route de Troinex, 1227 Carouge, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

56:10612 Shaw, R. Paul. Population growth: is it ruining the environment? Populi, Vol. 16, No. 2, Jun 1989. 20-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The effect of population growth on the environment is discussed. The author contends that pollution, warfare, and socioeconomic factors such as trade protection, food pricing policies, and levels of affluence have a greater impact on world environmental problems than does overpopulation. "There is no evidence that limiting population growth by itself, in the absence of other positive development factors, will eradicate poverty or regenerate environments. But population policy can buy invaluable time while we figure out how to dismantle the ultimate causes."
Correspondence: R. P. Shaw, UNFPA, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10613 Straubhaar, Thomas. Are there ecological limits to population growth? [Okologische Grenzen des Bevolkerungswachstums?] Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique, Vol. 125, No. 3, Sep 1989. 473-85 pp. Bern, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"This study concludes that there is not much reason to believe in an absolute (Malthusian) ecological limit of population growth. The growth of population does not itself contribute to the ecological problems. Rather it is the per capita demand for resources and the strong and continuous disregard of the low entropy steady-state that could limit a further growth of population."
Correspondence: T. Straubhaar, Universitat Bern, Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, Vereinsweg 23, 3012 Bern, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

56:10614 Biswas, A. K.; Bauer, J. G.; Rele, J. R. Sectoral distribution of the work force in India: trends and projections. Occasional Paper, No. 3 of 1989, [1989]. vii, 144 pp. Office of the Registrar General: New Delhi, India; Census Commissioner: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This study, which is a result of a cooperative venture between the office of the Registrar General in India and the East-West Center in Hawaii, is an analysis of population and labor force growth in India up to 2001 and includes the sectoral distribution of workers for the country as a whole and the 14 largest states.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, 2/A Mansigh Road, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10615 Breimaier, Paul. A long-term comparison of 1987 population census results concerning employment. [Ergebnisse der Volkszahlung 1987 zur Erwerbstatigkeit im langfristigen Vergleich.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 8, Aug 1989. 499-507 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Labor force data from the 1987 West German population census are presented. Trends since 1950 are also examined using results of the 1950, 1961, and 1970 censuses. The data are analyzed by state, age group, sex, economic sector, and employment status.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10616 Evers, G. H. M. Migration, population and regional labour supply. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 229-45 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
The author argues that changes in the stock of regional labor supply in the Netherlands are due primarily to changes in participation rates and the net effects of interregional migration and commuting, rather than to the natural increase in the population of working age. The interdependency between labor migration and commuting is described and alternative ways of analyzing it are reviewed, including macro- and microeconomic approaches.
Correspondence: G. H. M. Evers, University of Tilburg, Faculty of Sociology, Department of Personnel Management Sciences, PO Box 90153, NL-5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10617 Fichtenbaum, Rudy; Blair, John P. Regional differences in labor demand in the United States. Review of Regional Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter 1989. 72-6 pp. Clemson, South Carolina. In Eng.
The authors "present estimates of the elasticity of demand for labor [in the United States] by region for the manufacturing sector....A brief theoretical framework for analyzing the demand for labor is presented....This framework is used to develop a model that is well suited to analyze interregional differences in the elasticity of demand for labor....[It is] shown that there are significant differences between regions in both substitution and output elasticities. This finding implies that there are significant differences in the total elasticity of demand for labor across regions; therefore, error may be expected when national demand elasticities are used to estimate regional responses to wage and output changes."
Correspondence: R. Fichtenbaum, Wright State University, Department of Economics, Dayton, OH 45435. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10618 Fullerton, Howard N. New labor force projections, spanning 1988 to 2000. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 112, No. 11, Nov 1989. 3-12 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The focus of this article is on the projection of growth of the U.S. labor force for the period 1988-2000 based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Changes in labor force participation by age, sex, and ethnic group are described.
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

56:10619 Keyfitz, Nathan. Putting trained labour power to work: the dilemma of education and employment. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 25, No. 3, Dec 1989. 35-55 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
The author examines the problem of finding suitable employment for the trained labor force in developing countries, with particular attention to the situation in Indonesia. He notes that because the supply of educated labor outstrips the growth of suitable employment, there is a tendency for college and high school graduates to take jobs for which they are overqualified. It is also noted that this trend is reducing the wage premium for education.
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10620 Korpi, Tomas. Women's entry into employment after first birth: the effects of cohort/period and labor force experience. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 57, ISBN 91-7820-044-X. Nov 1989. ii, 32 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
The labor market participation of Swedish women who have recently had their first child is addressed, with an emphasis on the transition to full-time or part-time employment by mothers who remained at home during their entire maternal leave. Differences in age, marital status, child age, and educational level are examined using a hazard regression model that also analyzes the transitions to full- or part-time sectors separately. Findings indicate that "the sectors have limited mobility between them, and most women return to the sector they belonged to before the birth." Data are from the 1981 Swedish Fertility Survey.
Correspondence: University of Stockholm, Section of Demography, Stockholm S-106 91, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10621 Liptak, Julius. Labour force resources in the People's Republic of China and their utilization. [Zdroje pracovnych sil v CLR a ich vyuzitie.] Demografie, Vol. 31, No. 4, 1989. 330-8 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Human resources and labor force participation in China are discussed, with consideration given to policies affecting employment and trends in urbanization.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10622 Personick, Valerie A. Industry output and employment: a slower trend for the nineties. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 112, No. 11, Nov 1989. 25-41 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author projects U.S. industrial output and employment levels for the period 1988-2000. "The U.S. economy is projected to add another 18 million jobs by the year 2000, an average of 1.5 million per year from 1988. This rate of growth is slower than in the past, when annual job gains averaged 2.3 million over a comparable 12-year period. Slower growth is directly tied to the expectation of less labor force expansion over the next decade. The 18 million new jobs are expected to be added primarily in the service-producing sector." Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Correspondence: V. A. Personick, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

56:10623 Santow, Gigi. Employment and family in the lives of Australian women. Australian Family Project Working Paper, No. 9, Oct 1989. 27 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper lays the foundations for a projected series of analyses of trends, correlates and determinants of female employment in Australia. Using life-history data I set out first to chart changes in levels of employment over the last 30 or so years. Next, I quantify the extent to which these movements simply reflect changing population composition across familial situations which either favour or inhibit employment. I also outline the role of part-time work in contributing to changing work activity, and pinpoint calendar periods of major change." Data are from the 1986 Australian Family Project.
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10624 Silvestri, George; Lukasiewicz, John. Projections of occupational employment, 1988-2000. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 112, No. 11, Nov 1989. 42-65 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article discusses projected changes in the occupational structure of [U.S.] employment over the 1988-2000 period. It includes analyses of the impact of industry employment trends, technological change, and other factors on occupational employment; potential worker displacement stemming from occupations projected to decline; and the implications of the projections for education and training needs and for job opportunities for workers in minority groups." Data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Correspondence: G. Silvestri, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

56:10625 Uruguay. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay). Continuous Survey of Households, 1987. [Encuesta Continua de Hogares, 1987.] 1987. 117 pp. Montevideo, Uruguay. In Spa.
This publication contains labor force data from Uruguay's 1987 Continuous Survey of Households. Data are provided in tables and charts for the country as a whole, Montevideo, and the interior. Sections are included on the economically active population, employment and unemployment, average number of hours employed, underemployment, and income. Within each section, data are presented by type of economic activity, category of occupation, age group, educational level, and sex.
Correspondence: Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10626 Uruguay. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay). Continuous Survey of Households, 1988. [Encuesta Continua de Hogares, 1988.] 1988. viii, 115 pp. Montevideo, Uruguay. In Spa.
This publication contains labor force data from Uruguay's 1988 Continuous Survey of Households. Data are provided in tables and charts for the country as a whole, Montevideo, and the interior. Sections are included on the economically active population, employment and unemployment, average number of hours employed, underemployment, and income. Within each section, data are presented by type of economic activity, category of occupation, age group, educational level, and sex.
Correspondence: Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos, Cuareim 2052, Montevideo, Uruguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10627 Villeneuve-Gokalp, Catherine. Keeping her job, looking after her children: an analysis by social category. [Garder son emploi, garder ses enfants: une analyse par categorie sociale.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 18, No. 1, Spring 1989. 87-113 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Factors affecting women's employment in France are explored. In particular, "the author examines how working time may be adjusted according to the socio-occupational category of the mother. Recent French data allow for the identification of those occupations where women have a lower risk to discontinue their activity. The author investigates whether these occupations allow for a time-schedule and working conditions better adapted to family requirements or whether mothers with these occupations have at their disposal more possibilities to find a substitute for maternal care and help in housekeeping activities."
Correspondence: C. Villeneuve-Gokalp, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10628 Wright, Robert E.; Hinde, P. R. Andrew. The dynamics of female labour force participation in Great Britain. CPS Research Paper, No. 88-3, ISBN 0-902657-22-4. May 1988. ii, 24 pp. University of London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies: London, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the dynamics of female labour force participation in Great Britain, stressing the distinction between full-time and part-time employment. A three-state employment model is assumed, the states being 'in full-time work', in 'part-time work' and 'not employed'. The six transitions suggested by the model represent exits from employment, entries into employment and employment 'changes' (or transitions directly from full-time work to part-time work and vice versa). In order to quantify the impact that selected socio-economic factors have on these transitions, hazard regression is employed. The explanatory factors considered are age, birth cohort, education, unemployment levels, marital status and the number of dependent children. The data used are from the 1980 Women and Employment Survey. The results suggest that full-time and part-time employment are states exhibiting major differences beyond the obvious difference in the number of hours worked."
Correspondence: University of London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).