Jan F. The impact of population size and the economy on
welfare caseloads: the special case of welfare reform. Applied
Demography, Vol. 4, No. 3, Summer 1989. 1-7 pp. Alexandria, Virginia.
The economic recession that occurred in the United States in the early 1980s and its impact on public assistance in Washington state is examined. The emphasis is on the reasons why welfare caseloads increase in times of economic decline and vice versa, and how understanding this relationship can assist in the forecasting of welfare needs.
This paper was originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 405).
Correspondence: J. F. Brazzell, Department of Social and Health Services, OB-34F, Olympia, WA 98501. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Guy N. Population determinants of social change: an
analysis of the age composition of the United States from 1920 to
1983. Pub. Order No. DA8909915. 1988. 164 pp. University
Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to explain the consequences of a changing age structure on social change behaviors in the [U.S.] urban environment. The age composition of the population to be examined is the ratio of young male adults aged 15-34 to those aged 35-64. This ratio was selected to focus on what the relationship is between the age composition of the labor force-aged population to negative and positive behavior. The indices of social behavior to be examined are homicide, suicide and certain innovative behavior associated with patent activity....The implications of this study are that when pressure for opportunity builds in the population due to a heavy proportion of young adults, the prevalence of both positive (innovative) and negative (destructive) behavior increases. These behaviors reflect the need within society to change and adapt to population requirements."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Portland State University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 50(2).
William A. Utilitarian pension and retirement policies
under population ageing. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 2,
No. 1, 1989. 73-8 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Eng.
The author analyzes population aging and its impact on pension and retirement policies by utilizing a simple utilitarian model for alternative types of pension finance. Findings indicate that "when specific adjustments to population ageing are necessary, changes in the retirement age are preferred to changes in pensions or contributions." A geographical focus on developed countries is implied.
Correspondence: W. A. Jackson, University of York, Department of Economics, Heslington, York Y01 5DD, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Gavin W. Expansion of secondary and tertiary education in
South East Asia: some implications for Australia. Journal of the
Australian Population Association, Vol. 6, No. 1, May 1989. 57-72 pp.
Carlton South, Australia. In Eng.
The author explores the increasing number of secondary and tertiary education graduates in Southeast Asia and discusses the implications for Australia. "Many interrelated issues arise. One is the need to improve equity of access to these levels of education. Another is the need to broaden the employment base for the better-educated...[and] another relates to the appropriate content of education at these levels, the appropriate rate of expansion and the ultimate target for the proportion of young people receiving tertiary education." The impact on education policy and the possibility of an increase in labor migration of the better-educated from Southeast Asia are also noted.
Correspondence: G. W. Jones, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Rainer. Can the welfare state still be financed?
[Bleibt der Sozialstaat finanzierbar?] Demographische Informationen
1988/89, . 73-6, 156 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in
The future impact of demographic aging in Austria on government expenditures for social programs is projected to the year 2051. Three different demographic scenarios and two budgetary strategies are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Fred C.; Williamson, John B. Age, class, politics, and the
welfare state. The Arnold and Caroline Rose Monograph Series of
the American Sociological Association, ISBN 0-521-37223-2. LC 88-27028.
1989. xvi, 199 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New
York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In this book the authors analyze the relative impact of class and status groups versus demographic composition and political structures on the growth of welfare spending. Special attention is given to the role of the aged as they are representative of the importance of ascription and middle-class groups in welfare growth. Another focus of the study is the effect of welfare spending on income inequality." The data are primarily from U.N. sources and concern western developed countries. The authors conclude that a large aged population, particularly in a democratic system, has a direct and crucial influence on the level of welfare spending. "A corollary thesis developed is that the primary beneficiaries of welfare benefits are not the poor but middle income groups and that income inequality is reinforced by welfare spending."
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Josef. Demographic development as an indicator of social
changes. [Demographische Entwicklung als Indikator
gesellschaftlicher Veranderungen.] Demographische Informationen
1988/89, . 15-8, 154 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in
The relationship between demographic trends and social change is discussed using examples from various countries. The need to integrate the approaches of sociology and political science into demographic analyses is emphasized.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Jin. Population growth and education development in
China. Population Research, Vol. 5, No. 3, Sep 1988. 39-49 pp.
Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author describes recent trends in population growth and educational development in China using data from the 1982 census and fertility sampling survey. Educational levels, illiteracy, geographic location, and age and sex structure are discussed. Included is a table on the percentage of the national budget spent on education for the years 1953-1980. Fertility rates are analyzed by educational level, and the importance of education in curbing rapid population growth and promoting social and economic development is explored.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Linda B. Postnuptial migration and the status of women in
Indonesia. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 51, No. 4, Nov
1989. 895-905 pp. Saint Paul, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This article explores the relationship between migration at or soon after marriage and the status of women within the household in rural Central Java, Indonesia. Determinants of decision-making processes surrounding contraception, childbearing, resource control, and a variable measuring overall decision-making power are explored by the method of ordinary-least-squares regression estimations. It is found that postmarriage residential mobility can increase women's decision-making power, as can less frequent contact with parents on both sides of the family. If a woman moves to a new village early in her marriage, however, the move may weaken her position within the household."
Correspondence: L. B. Williams, National Center for Health Statistics, Family Growth Survey Branch, Room 1-44, 3700 East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Robert J. Demographic and budgetary influence on the
geography of the poll tax: alarm or false alarm? Institute of
British Geographers: Transactions, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1989. 400-17 pp.
London, England. In Eng.
"The paper examines the influence of demographic change and the adaptation of local authority budgets on the level of poll tax between local authorities. The changes introduced by the Local Government Finance Act [in the United Kingdom] are argued to make almost all the possible variation between areas depend upon demography and local decisions on expenditure. Means of assessing local expenditure need are outlined and a consistent measure is developed which is used to estimate the relative contributions of changing need, tax base, new expenditures and grants over the period 1974-85 and up to 1991. 'New realism' in local authority spending is argued to combine with demographic change to allow radically reduced potential poll tax levies to be estimated than have been forecast by other sources. The reductions are particularly significant in inner London and many metropolitan districts."
Correspondence: R. J. Bennett, London School of Economics, Department of Geography, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Franz. Future population trends as a political
challenge. [Die zukunftige Bevolkerungsentwicklung als politische
Herausforderung.] Demographische Informationen 1988/89, . 3-6,
154 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
This is the keynote address from a closed conference held by the Austrian government in October 1988 to examine the consequences of future population trends. The focus is on problems for the political system in general and the federal government in particular.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Lisa; Singer, Burton; Manton, Kenneth. Black/white
differences in health status and mortality among the elderly.
Demography, Vol. 26, No. 4, Nov 1989. 661-78 pp. Alexandria, Virginia.
"In this article, we present an alternative approach to characterizing the health and functional status of individuals....The approach we use, grade of membership (GOM) analysis, blends a theoretical understanding of the nature of the conditions that define 'health status' and some risk factors related to physical health with an empirically derived model in which we observe how conditions are related to one another in a heterogeneous population....Our aim in selecting these conditions was not only to examine how they clustered together in different subgroups of the elderly population but to use profiles comprising various conditions as stratification variables in mortality analyses. In this way, we can test whether mortality differences between blacks and whites are influenced by the distribution and prevalence of many conditions that are known to influence mortality rates....We illustrate the GOM model using data from the New Haven Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE), a probability sample of noninstitutionalized blacks and whites living in New Haven [Connecticut] in 1982."
Correspondence: L. Berkman, Yale University, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06510. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Alain; Plauchu, Henri; Brunet, Guy; Robert, Jacques-Michel.
Epidemiological investigation of Rendu-Osler disease in France: its
geographical distribution and prevalence. Population. English
Selection, Vol. 44, No. 1, Sep 1989. 3-22 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors explore the spatial distribution by geographic department of Rendu-Osler disease in France. They analyze the prevalence of this inherited disease and follow its development by tracing internal migration patterns. Data are from a 1984 survey.
Correspondence: H. Plauchu, Institut Europeen des Genomutations, 86 rue F. Locard, 69005 Lyon, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
John. A model of the spread of HIV infection and the
demographic impact of AIDS. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 8, No. 1,
Jan 1989. 103-20 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
A computer simulation model is developed to project the annual incidence of HIV infection and AIDS in a given population. "The epidemiological components of the model use a compartmental approach and they are described with sets of linear differential equations. The demographic framework in which the epidemiological components are integrated, is based on a standard cohort component method of population projection. The simulated population is stratified by age, gender, sexual behaviour, marital status and infection/disease status. The concluding section provides an illustrative application of the model to a Central African population. In this hypothetical simulation covering the period from 1975 to 2000, HIV prevalence in the adult population rises from 0 to 21 per cent. By the end of the projection period mortality is about double the level that would have prevailed in the absence of the epidemic, but, owing to the very high birth rates that prevail in most of Africa, the growth rate of the population remains substantially positive."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, Center for Policy Studies, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
John C.; Caldwell, Pat; Quiggin, Pat. The social context
of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review,
Vol. 15, No. 2, Jun 1989. 185-234, 394, 396 pp. New York, New York. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Drawing extensively on the primarily anthropological, often scattered, literature and on their own research, the authors argue that sexual activity in sub-Saharan Africa has not been subject to the same moral and religious constraints as in the West. Sexuality has been treated in a more matter-of-fact way, and sexual relations, quite distinct from prostitution, often involve material transactions. The pervasiveness of this transactional element means that sudden changes in sexual networking will lead to the deterioration of the situation of many socially marginal women and their children. The lesser constraints on acceptable sexual activity have resulted in a high level of heterosexual networking, which provides both a considerable risk of HIV transmission and a strong resistance to the control of AIDS through the enforcement of monogamy."
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40625 Jose, Marco
V.; Borgaro, Rebeca. Universal history of mortality.
[Historia universal de la mortalidad.] Salud Publica de Mexico, Vol.
31, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1989. 3-17 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with
sum. in Eng.
This is a general history of disease. The author first notes that such a history is based almost entirely on knowledge about changes in mortality and life expectancy, since illness and suffering are difficult to calculate. "From this study we see that the major lethal diseases were conquered not so much by discovering how to treat them as by prevention. The decline in mortality began at the start of the past century, at a time of revolution and reform, and was greatly accelerated when the causes of many diseases were discovered at the end of the nineteenth century. Even in the twentieth century, the greatest improvements are still being achieved by preventive measurements."
Correspondence: M. V. Jose, Fco. de P. Miranda 177-5 piso, Unidad Plateros, 01480 Mexico, D.F., Mexico. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
Laurie; Church, Cathleen A.; Piotrow, Phyllis T.; Harris, John
A. AIDS education--a beginning. Population Reports,
Series L: Issues in World Health, No. 8, Sep 1989. 32 pp. Johns
Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population
Information Program [PIP]: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Worldwide efforts to develop AIDS education programs are described. The report includes a summary of the current extent of the AIDS epidemic by continent. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of AIDS information activities on sex and contraceptive behavior is provided.
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, PIP, 527 St. Paul Place, Baltimore, MD 21202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
France. Morbidity and causes of death among the aged.
[Morbidite et causes de deces chez les personnes agees.] INED Dossiers
et Recherches, No. 20, Nov 1988. 14 pp. Institut National d'Etudes
Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Trends in morbidity and in the causes of death among the elderly in France are examined using data from official sources. The analysis is presented separately by sex. The results do not confirm the existence of excess morbidity among women, but do show that excess mortality among men is evident and is increasing.
Correspondence: INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Research Council. Committee on Population. Working Group on the Health
Consequences of Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility (Washington,
D.C.). Contraception and reproduction: health
consequences for women and children in the developing world. ISBN
0-309-04094-9. LC 89-63004. 1989. xii, 118 pp. National Academy Press:
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report is one in a series of studies conducted under the auspices of the National Research Council's Committee on Population to examine the consequences of changes in demographic behavior. It is concerned with the health consequences of different patterns of childbearing and contraceptive use in the developing world. "This report focuses on the health effects for mothers and their children of changes in the timing of pregnancies, the interval between them, and the number of children women have. In addition, it provides an overview of what is known about the health risks and benefits of different contraceptive methods used in the developing world. Throughout, the report focuses on the consequences that changes in the number and spacing of pregnancies and the ages of childbearing would have on the health of individual women and children, their families, and the larger population." The report concludes that reproductive patterns have an important impact on the health of women and children and that their health could be significantly improved by changes in family planning programs.
Correspondence: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40629 Rushton, J.
Philippe. Genetic similarity, mate choice, and fecundity
in humans. Ethology and Sociobiology, Vol. 9, No. 6, Nov 1988.
329-33 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Direct evidence is presented concerning the correlation of human mating patterns and fecundity with genetic similarity. The data are from blood antigen analyses of about 1,000 cases of disputed paternity that show that the degree of genetic similarity within pairs predicts "(1) whether the pair is sexually interacting or randomly generated, and (2) whether the pair produced a child together or not. Seven polymorphic marker systems...at ten loci across six chromosomes were examined. Sexually interacting couples were found to share about 50% of measured genetic markers, part way between mothers and their offspring who share 73% and randomly paired individuals from the same sample who share 43%."
Correspondence: J. P. Rushton, University of Western Ontario, Department of Psychology, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.