55:40610 Brazzell,
Jan F. The impact of population size and the economy on
welfare caseloads: the special case of welfare reform. Applied
Demography, Vol. 4, No. 3, Summer 1989. 1-7 pp. Alexandria, Virginia.
In Eng.
The economic recession that occurred in the United States
in the early 1980s and its impact on public assistance in Washington
state is examined. The emphasis is on the reasons why welfare
caseloads increase in times of economic decline and vice versa, and how
understanding this relationship can assist in the forecasting of
welfare needs.
This paper was originally presented at the 1989
Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population
Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, p. 405).
Correspondence:
J. F. Brazzell, Department of Social and Health Services, OB-34F,
Olympia, WA 98501. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
55:40611 Burkhardt,
Guy N. Population determinants of social change: an
analysis of the age composition of the United States from 1920 to
1983. Pub. Order No. DA8909915. 1988. 164 pp. University
Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose
of this study is to explain the consequences of a changing age
structure on social change behaviors in the [U.S.] urban environment.
The age composition of the population to be examined is the ratio of
young male adults aged 15-34 to those aged 35-64. This ratio was
selected to focus on what the relationship is between the age
composition of the labor force-aged population to negative and positive
behavior. The indices of social behavior to be examined are homicide,
suicide and certain innovative behavior associated with patent
activity....The implications of this study are that when pressure for
opportunity builds in the population due to a heavy proportion of young
adults, the prevalence of both positive (innovative) and negative
(destructive) behavior increases. These behaviors reflect the need
within society to change and adapt to population requirements."
This
work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Portland State
University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms
International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities
and Social Sciences 50(2).
55:40612 Jackson,
William A. Utilitarian pension and retirement policies
under population ageing. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 2,
No. 1, 1989. 73-8 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Eng.
The author analyzes population aging and its
impact on pension and retirement policies by utilizing a simple
utilitarian model for alternative types of pension finance. Findings
indicate that "when specific adjustments to population ageing are
necessary, changes in the retirement age are preferred to changes in
pensions or contributions." A geographical focus on developed
countries is implied.
Correspondence: W. A. Jackson,
University of York, Department of Economics, Heslington, York Y01 5DD,
England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40613 Jones,
Gavin W. Expansion of secondary and tertiary education in
South East Asia: some implications for Australia. Journal of the
Australian Population Association, Vol. 6, No. 1, May 1989. 57-72 pp.
Carlton South, Australia. In Eng.
The author explores the
increasing number of secondary and tertiary education graduates in
Southeast Asia and discusses the implications for Australia. "Many
interrelated issues arise. One is the need to improve equity of access
to these levels of education. Another is the need to broaden the
employment base for the better-educated...[and] another relates to the
appropriate content of education at these levels, the appropriate rate
of expansion and the ultimate target for the proportion of young people
receiving tertiary education." The impact on education policy and the
possibility of an increase in labor migration of the better-educated
from Southeast Asia are also noted.
Correspondence: G. W.
Jones, Australian National University, Research School of Social
Sciences, Department of Demography, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601,
Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40614 Munz,
Rainer. Can the welfare state still be financed?
[Bleibt der Sozialstaat finanzierbar?] Demographische Informationen
1988/89, [1989]. 73-6, 156 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in
Eng.
The future impact of demographic aging in Austria on
government expenditures for social programs is projected to the year
2051. Three different demographic scenarios and two budgetary
strategies are considered.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:40615 Pampel,
Fred C.; Williamson, John B. Age, class, politics, and the
welfare state. The Arnold and Caroline Rose Monograph Series of
the American Sociological Association, ISBN 0-521-37223-2. LC 88-27028.
1989. xvi, 199 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New
York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In this book the authors analyze
the relative impact of class and status groups versus demographic
composition and political structures on the growth of welfare spending.
Special attention is given to the role of the aged as they are
representative of the importance of ascription and middle-class groups
in welfare growth. Another focus of the study is the effect of welfare
spending on income inequality." The data are primarily from U.N.
sources and concern western developed countries. The authors conclude
that a large aged population, particularly in a democratic system, has
a direct and crucial influence on the level of welfare spending. "A
corollary thesis developed is that the primary beneficiaries of welfare
benefits are not the poor but middle income groups and that income
inequality is reinforced by welfare
spending."
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, Pitt
Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40616 Schmid,
Josef. Demographic development as an indicator of social
changes. [Demographische Entwicklung als Indikator
gesellschaftlicher Veranderungen.] Demographische Informationen
1988/89, [1989]. 15-8, 154 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in
Eng.
The relationship between demographic trends and social change
is discussed using examples from various countries. The need to
integrate the approaches of sociology and political science into
demographic analyses is emphasized.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:40617 Wei,
Jin. Population growth and education development in
China. Population Research, Vol. 5, No. 3, Sep 1988. 39-49 pp.
Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author describes recent trends in
population growth and educational development in China using data from
the 1982 census and fertility sampling survey. Educational levels,
illiteracy, geographic location, and age and sex structure are
discussed. Included is a table on the percentage of the national
budget spent on education for the years 1953-1980. Fertility rates are
analyzed by educational level, and the importance of education in
curbing rapid population growth and promoting social and economic
development is explored.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:40618 Williams,
Linda B. Postnuptial migration and the status of women in
Indonesia. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 51, No. 4, Nov
1989. 895-905 pp. Saint Paul, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This article
explores the relationship between migration at or soon after marriage
and the status of women within the household in rural Central Java,
Indonesia. Determinants of decision-making processes surrounding
contraception, childbearing, resource control, and a variable measuring
overall decision-making power are explored by the method of
ordinary-least-squares regression estimations. It is found that
postmarriage residential mobility can increase women's decision-making
power, as can less frequent contact with parents on both sides of the
family. If a woman moves to a new village early in her marriage,
however, the move may weaken her position within the
household."
Correspondence: L. B. Williams, National Center
for Health Statistics, Family Growth Survey Branch, Room 1-44, 3700
East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:40619 Bennett,
Robert J. Demographic and budgetary influence on the
geography of the poll tax: alarm or false alarm? Institute of
British Geographers: Transactions, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1989. 400-17 pp.
London, England. In Eng.
"The paper examines the influence of
demographic change and the adaptation of local authority budgets on the
level of poll tax between local authorities. The changes introduced by
the Local Government Finance Act [in the United Kingdom] are argued to
make almost all the possible variation between areas depend upon
demography and local decisions on expenditure. Means of assessing
local expenditure need are outlined and a consistent measure is
developed which is used to estimate the relative contributions of
changing need, tax base, new expenditures and grants over the period
1974-85 and up to 1991. 'New realism' in local authority spending is
argued to combine with demographic change to allow radically reduced
potential poll tax levies to be estimated than have been forecast by
other sources. The reductions are particularly significant in inner
London and many metropolitan districts."
Correspondence: R.
J. Bennett, London School of Economics, Department of Geography, London
WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library
(PR).
55:40620 Vranitzky,
Franz. Future population trends as a political
challenge. [Die zukunftige Bevolkerungsentwicklung als politische
Herausforderung.] Demographische Informationen 1988/89, [1989]. 3-6,
154 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
This is the
keynote address from a closed conference held by the Austrian
government in October 1988 to examine the consequences of future
population trends. The focus is on problems for the political system
in general and the federal government in
particular.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40621 Berkman,
Lisa; Singer, Burton; Manton, Kenneth. Black/white
differences in health status and mortality among the elderly.
Demography, Vol. 26, No. 4, Nov 1989. 661-78 pp. Alexandria, Virginia.
In Eng.
"In this article, we present an alternative approach to
characterizing the health and functional status of individuals....The
approach we use, grade of membership (GOM) analysis, blends a
theoretical understanding of the nature of the conditions that define
'health status' and some risk factors related to physical health with
an empirically derived model in which we observe how conditions are
related to one another in a heterogeneous population....Our aim in
selecting these conditions was not only to examine how they clustered
together in different subgroups of the elderly population but to use
profiles comprising various conditions as stratification variables in
mortality analyses. In this way, we can test whether mortality
differences between blacks and whites are influenced by the
distribution and prevalence of many conditions that are known to
influence mortality rates....We illustrate the GOM model using data
from the New Haven Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study
of the Elderly (EPESE), a probability sample of noninstitutionalized
blacks and whites living in New Haven [Connecticut] in
1982."
Correspondence: L. Berkman, Yale University,
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, 60 College Street, New
Haven, CT 06510. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
55:40622 Bideau,
Alain; Plauchu, Henri; Brunet, Guy; Robert, Jacques-Michel.
Epidemiological investigation of Rendu-Osler disease in France: its
geographical distribution and prevalence. Population. English
Selection, Vol. 44, No. 1, Sep 1989. 3-22 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors explore the spatial distribution by geographic
department of Rendu-Osler disease in France. They analyze the
prevalence of this inherited disease and follow its development by
tracing internal migration patterns. Data are from a 1984
survey.
Correspondence: H. Plauchu, Institut Europeen des
Genomutations, 86 rue F. Locard, 69005 Lyon, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40623 Bongaarts,
John. A model of the spread of HIV infection and the
demographic impact of AIDS. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 8, No. 1,
Jan 1989. 103-20 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
A computer
simulation model is developed to project the annual incidence of HIV
infection and AIDS in a given population. "The epidemiological
components of the model use a compartmental approach and they are
described with sets of linear differential equations. The demographic
framework in which the epidemiological components are integrated, is
based on a standard cohort component method of population projection.
The simulated population is stratified by age, gender, sexual
behaviour, marital status and infection/disease status. The concluding
section provides an illustrative application of the model to a Central
African population. In this hypothetical simulation covering the
period from 1975 to 2000, HIV prevalence in the adult population rises
from 0 to 21 per cent. By the end of the projection period mortality
is about double the level that would have prevailed in the absence of
the epidemic, but, owing to the very high birth rates that prevail in
most of Africa, the growth rate of the population remains substantially
positive."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population
Council, Center for Policy Studies, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New
York, NY 10017. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine,
Bethesda, MD.
55:40624 Caldwell,
John C.; Caldwell, Pat; Quiggin, Pat. The social context
of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review,
Vol. 15, No. 2, Jun 1989. 185-234, 394, 396 pp. New York, New York. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Drawing extensively on the primarily
anthropological, often scattered, literature and on their own research,
the authors argue that sexual activity in sub-Saharan Africa has not
been subject to the same moral and religious constraints as in the
West. Sexuality has been treated in a more matter-of-fact way, and
sexual relations, quite distinct from prostitution, often involve
material transactions. The pervasiveness of this transactional element
means that sudden changes in sexual networking will lead to the
deterioration of the situation of many socially marginal women and
their children. The lesser constraints on acceptable sexual activity
have resulted in a high level of heterosexual networking, which
provides both a considerable risk of HIV transmission and a strong
resistance to the control of AIDS through the enforcement of
monogamy."
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Australian
National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population
Health, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:40625 Jose, Marco
V.; Borgaro, Rebeca. Universal history of mortality.
[Historia universal de la mortalidad.] Salud Publica de Mexico, Vol.
31, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1989. 3-17 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with
sum. in Eng.
This is a general history of disease. The author
first notes that such a history is based almost entirely on knowledge
about changes in mortality and life expectancy, since illness and
suffering are difficult to calculate. "From this study we see that the
major lethal diseases were conquered not so much by discovering how to
treat them as by prevention. The decline in mortality began at the
start of the past century, at a time of revolution and reform, and was
greatly accelerated when the causes of many diseases were discovered at
the end of the nineteenth century. Even in the twentieth century, the
greatest improvements are still being achieved by preventive
measurements."
Correspondence: M. V. Jose, Fco. de P.
Miranda 177-5 piso, Unidad Plateros, 01480 Mexico, D.F., Mexico.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
55:40626 Liskin,
Laurie; Church, Cathleen A.; Piotrow, Phyllis T.; Harris, John
A. AIDS education--a beginning. Population Reports,
Series L: Issues in World Health, No. 8, Sep 1989. 32 pp. Johns
Hopkins University, Center for Communication Programs, Population
Information Program [PIP]: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Worldwide
efforts to develop AIDS education programs are described. The report
includes a summary of the current extent of the AIDS epidemic by
continent. A preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of AIDS
information activities on sex and contraceptive behavior is
provided.
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, Center
for Communication Programs, PIP, 527 St. Paul Place, Baltimore, MD
21202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40627 Mesle,
France. Morbidity and causes of death among the aged.
[Morbidite et causes de deces chez les personnes agees.] INED Dossiers
et Recherches, No. 20, Nov 1988. 14 pp. Institut National d'Etudes
Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Trends in morbidity
and in the causes of death among the elderly in France are examined
using data from official sources. The analysis is presented separately
by sex. The results do not confirm the existence of excess morbidity
among women, but do show that excess mortality among men is evident and
is increasing.
Correspondence: INED, 27 rue du Commandeur,
75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:40628 National
Research Council. Committee on Population. Working Group on the Health
Consequences of Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility (Washington,
D.C.). Contraception and reproduction: health
consequences for women and children in the developing world. ISBN
0-309-04094-9. LC 89-63004. 1989. xii, 118 pp. National Academy Press:
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report is one in a series of studies
conducted under the auspices of the National Research Council's
Committee on Population to examine the consequences of changes in
demographic behavior. It is concerned with the health consequences of
different patterns of childbearing and contraceptive use in the
developing world. "This report focuses on the health effects for
mothers and their children of changes in the timing of pregnancies, the
interval between them, and the number of children women have. In
addition, it provides an overview of what is known about the health
risks and benefits of different contraceptive methods used in the
developing world. Throughout, the report focuses on the consequences
that changes in the number and spacing of pregnancies and the ages of
childbearing would have on the health of individual women and children,
their families, and the larger population." The report concludes that
reproductive patterns have an important impact on the health of women
and children and that their health could be significantly improved by
changes in family planning programs.
Correspondence:
National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:40629 Rushton, J.
Philippe. Genetic similarity, mate choice, and fecundity
in humans. Ethology and Sociobiology, Vol. 9, No. 6, Nov 1988.
329-33 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Direct evidence is presented
concerning the correlation of human mating patterns and fecundity with
genetic similarity. The data are from blood antigen analyses of about
1,000 cases of disputed paternity that show that the degree of genetic
similarity within pairs predicts "(1) whether the pair is sexually
interacting or randomly generated, and (2) whether the pair produced a
child together or not. Seven polymorphic marker systems...at ten loci
across six chromosomes were examined. Sexually interacting couples
were found to share about 50% of measured genetic markers, part way
between mothers and their offspring who share 73% and randomly paired
individuals from the same sample who share
43%."
Correspondence: J. P. Rushton, University of Western
Ontario, Department of Psychology, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.
