Volume 55 - Number 3 - Fall 1989

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

55:30719 Bilsborrow, Richard E. The demographics of macroeconomic-demographic models. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-21, Jul 1988. 58, 5, 9 pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to assess the state of the art regarding economic-demographic models of the interrelationships between population and socioeconomic development in low-income countries. The assessment focuses on demographic functions and on methodological rather than substantive issues, to help identify where different or modified functions and approaches would appear both methodologically superior and feasible. Recommendations will also be made with a view towards improving the utility of the models for government planners...." Two families of models, the Bachue and ESCAP models, are applied to data from the 1970s and 1980s for five developing countries.
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30720 Caldwell, John C.; Reddy, P. H.; Caldwell, Pat. Investigating the nature of population change in South India: experimenting with a micro-approach. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 25-38 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The authors investigate the nature of population change in South India for the years 1979-1983 using a micro-approach methodology. Initially the study's focus was on fertility; however, the qualitative approach established that many types of changes affecting fertility are interrelated. The focus was therefore broadened to include socioeconomic change and demographic variables such as family structure, marriage patterns, morbidity, and mortality. The theories of both the macro- and the micro-approach to such research are analyzed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30721 Caldwell, John C.; Hill, Allan G.; Hull, Valerie J. Micro-approaches to demographic research. ISBN 0-7103-0297-5. 1988. xvi, 500 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This volume is a compilation of papers presented at an IUSSP seminar in Canberra, Australia, in September 1984. The focus of the seminar was on supplementing traditional demographic census and survey techniques with field studies, drawing upon both anthropological and small-scale survey methodologies. Chapters are included on micro-perspectives on Asian fertility; the family and fertility in Africa; institutions and intergenerational transfers; studying mortality and morbidity; marriage, household formation, and fertility; migration and urbanization; and indigenous perceptions and theories of reproduction. The geographical focus is on Asia and Africa.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Kegan Paul International, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30722 Caldwell, John C. Micro-approaches: similarities and differences, strengths and weaknesses. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 458-70 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author examines the field methodology utilized by researchers who presented papers at an IUSSP conference on micro-approaches to demographic research, held in September 1984 in Canberra, Australia. He analyzes various aspects of research, including differences and similarities in research design, quantitative and qualitative methodology, data collection and research techniques, interview methods, and reliability. The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30723 Caldwell, John C.; Hill, Allan G. Recent developments using micro-approaches to demographic research. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 1-9 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The authors present a brief review of developments using micro-approaches in the demographic study of the determinants of fertility, mortality, and migration. This serves as an introduction to the research approach featured in the papers presented at an IUSSP seminar in Canberra, Australia, in September 1984.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30724 Caswell, Hal. Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and interpretation. ISBN 0-87893-094-9. LC 89-31516. 1989. xiv, 328 pp. Sinauer Associates: Sunderland, Massachusetts. In Eng.
This book is concerned with matrix population models and their application to the study of the dynamics of populations when individuals are classified by age, size, or developmental stage. It is a textbook intended for the practicing population biologist and emphasizes the construction of models, either from actual data or as an expression of hypotheses about the life cycle, mathematical analysis of the models, and the biological interpretation of the results. No previous experience with matrix models is assumed, and methods and examples of their application have been given a higher priority than has mathematical elegance.
Correspondence: Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, MA 01375. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30725 Cieslak, Maria. The development of demographic-economic modeling. [Rozwoj modelowania demograficzno-ekonomicznego.] Ekonomista, No. 1, 1987. 227-46 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author proposes a definition of a demographic-economic model and examines the demographic and economic components of 17 models. She postulates that new kinds of econometric models should be developed that take into account economic conditions, quality of life, and demographic phenomena and that demographic models should be constructed so as to be consistent with economic models.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:30726 Constantinides, Marietta A. Optimum population, overlapping generations and social security in a model maximizing u(c1, c2, X). Journal of Economics/Zeitschrift fur Nationalokonomie, Vol. 47, No. 1, 1987. 69-75 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author expands on a previous publication in which she "considered the social welfare function u(c, L) which incorporates the size of population as an argument, in addition to per capita consumption, and investigated its implications for optimal population policy within a conventional growth setting....In overlapping generations models, as in dynamic growth models, lifetime utility has been maximized using the per capita approach...and more recently using the total utility approach....Our model, incorporating population externalities, represents an intermediate approach, both in the way it is formulated and in its results. It should be noted that our utility function contains as special cases the model with summing over individual utilities or various models with weighted summation, and models with X absent from the utility function."
Correspondence: M. A. Constantinides, Muhlenberg College, Allentown, PA 18104-5586. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:30727 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. The demographic analysis of biographies. [Analyse demographique des biographies.] Editions de l'INED, ISBN 2-7332-2010-1. 1989. viii, 268 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This work is an introduction to the use of event history analysis to examine interactions among demographic phenomena. The authors use data on the biography of individuals to develop methods for longitudinal analysis of the relationships among demographic, social, and economic factors, taking into account the heterogeneity of the population considered. These methods are illustrated with some practical examples.
Correspondence: INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30728 D'Souza, Stan. Measures of preventable deaths in developing countries: some methodological issues and approaches. In: Differential mortality: methodological issues and biosocial factors, edited by Lado Ruzicka, Guillaume Wunsch, and Penny Kane. 1989. 79-101 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England; Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter will briefly raise some methodological issues and problems related to the development of...[a Preventable Death Index (PDI)]. An application of the index to the situation in selected less developed countries will be made. The index will also be used to describe the epidemiological transition in China." A major focus of the chapter is "the standardization of a mortality index that would indicate changes in mortality levels in a manner which would consider the difficulty involved in mortality control. Once appropriate assumptions have been made regarding local and country settings with regard to what is considered preventable, the formulation of a PDI follows from the standardized mortality index."
Correspondence: S. D'Souza, UNDP, Cotonou, Benin. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30729 Duchene, Josianne; Wunsch, Guillaume. Conceptual frameworks and causal modelling. In: Differential mortality: methodological issues and biosocial factors, edited by Lado Ruzicka, Guillaume Wunsch, and Penny Kane. 1989. 21-35 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England; Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this chapter is to discuss some aspects of [a] three-level model of theory-building. In the first section, we will define the various relationships which can link concepts together, in a general theory. The second section will discuss the passage from concept to indicator, in a conceptual framework approach. The third section considers a causal model specifically designed to take into account both concepts and indicators, that is, covariance structure analysis. We will use throughout Caldwell's theory...on the role of education as a factor in mortality decline as an example."
Correspondence: J. Duchene, Department of Demography, University of Louvain, Naamestraat 22, 3000 Louvain, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30730 Hamerska, Hedvika. Problems of the mutual relationship between basic settlement units and settlements. [K problematice vzajemneho vztahu zakladnich sidelnich jednotek a sidel.] Demografie, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1989. 17-24 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Some problems concerning the changing definitions of settlements in the Czech part of Czechoslovakia over time are considered. The problems such changes pose for longitudinal demographic analysis are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30731 Hammel, E. A.; Mason, Carl; Wachter, Kenneth; Wang, Feng; Yang, Haiou. Microsimulation as a tool in exploring social and demographic interrelationships with an example from China, 1750-2250 or how tradition is achieved by modernity. Program in Population Research Working Paper, No. 27, Apr 8, 1989. 70 pp. University of California, Institute of International Studies, Program in Population Research: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
This study is concerned with how "demographic regimes conspire to shape the availability pool of 'relatives' (kin and affines) from which may be drawn those social actors who have mutual expectations of support under culture-specific conditions." Specifically, it is concerned with how demographic conditions might influence social action by providing more or less genealogical kin. This process is analyzed using microsimulation and the SOCSIM programs of social simulation. The SOCSIM programs are first described and then applied in an exploration of the consequences of irregular population change, particularly in the areas of fertility and mortality, for the structure of kinship networks in China from 1750 to 2150.
Correspondence: Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30732 Hansen, Poul E. Leslie matrix models. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1989. 37-67, 89 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A review of the Leslie matrix model theory and its literature 1941-1987 is presented. The point of view is that of a mathematician who focuses on the parts of the theory which are relevant to demography. Works of a decidedly applied nature are not dealt with."
Correspondence: P. E. Hansen, Department of Mathematics, Royal Veterinary and Agricultural University, Thorvaldsensvej 40, DK-1871 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30733 Hao, Hongsheng. An introduction to the application of the analytic method of mathematical statistics to population studies. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 2, 1987. 51-4 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
Methods of analyzing mathematical statistics and their application in China to population data are examined based on a review of recently published studies in China. Problems identified include a misunderstanding of the relationship between cause and effect, errors in explaining the coefficient in multivariate regression analysis, and errors in dealing with multilinearity problems in multivariate regression analysis.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30734 Hoem, Britta. A simulation study of the distribution of the likelihood ratio for an intensity model in small samples. [En simuleringsstudie av fordelningen till likelihoodkvottestet for en intensitetsmodell med fa observationer.] Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 50, ISBN 91-7820-037-7. [1989?]. 21, 7 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe.
The author attempts to determine the accuracy of approximations in situations where data is relatively unavailable. Results are presented from five simulation experiments using information from the 1981 Swedish Fertility Survey. Simultations are made for separations among married, childless women and for separations among cohabiting, childless women.
Correspondence: Section of Demography, University of Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30735 Hoem, Jan M. Limitations of a heterogeneity technique: selectivity issues in conjugal union disruption at parity zero in contemporary Sweden. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 56, ISBN 91-7820-043-1. Jun 1989. 40 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
The value of using heterogeneity techniques in event history analysis in order to allow for omitted variables is examined. The author reports on a failed attempt to incorporate persistent unobserved heterogeneity into a model for a behavior where it is manifestly present and easily detected by simple procedures. The example involves marital dissolution patterns in contemporary Sweden using data from the Swedish Fertility Survey of 1981.
Correspondence: Demography Unit, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30736 Hull, T. H.; Hull, V. J.; Singarimbun, M. Combining research techniques in the study of fertility and family planning in Java: theory and practice. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 56-73 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The authors combine qualitative and quantitative research techniques to determine the social and cultural context of fertility and family planning in two communities in Java. "A combination of techniques meant that surveys could gather data on demographic and economic parameters while intensive interviews and observations would help to understand the workings of institutions and the processes of the society." Analysis and evaluation of the combined research approach are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30737 Maslova, O. M. The use of the method of inquiries in the study of demographic processes. [Primenenie metoda oprosa v izuchenii demograficheskikh protsessov.] In: Metody issledovaniya, edited by A. G. Vishnevskii. 1986. 22-33, 181 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the use of a method of demographic analysis defined as the method of inquiries. The method is described, and various pilot studies are used to test its effectiveness.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30738 Oppong, Christine; Abu, Katharine. The seven roles framework: focused biographies and family size in Ghana. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 146-66 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter addresses a common conceptual and methodological problem encountered in demographic studies: how changes in the roles of women may be indexed, documented, and linked to lower desired family size and contraceptive innovation. A framework for data collection and analysis is outlined and one micro-technique, the focused biography [is] described. The remainder of the chapter examines some of the empirical evidence from a [1986] Ghanian study using this framework and technique to demonstrate how changes or differences in aspects of women's roles are related to new family size desires and associated practices. Given that the focus of interest is procreation, the discussion centres upon childbirth and child care and the ways in which shifts away from traditional values and practices are linked to changing maternal norms, values and beliefs, as well as changes in other roles."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30739 Popkov, Yu. S. A new class of dynamic macrosystem models with self-reproduction. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 21, No. 6, Jun 1989. 739-51 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The author considers a class of macrosystems where the relaxation time of the distribution process of elements is significantly less than the relaxation time of the self-reproduction process. The proposed model of such macrosystems defines the system of differential equations with nonlinearity generated by the solution of a mathematical programming problem with an entropy objective function. Methods for the structural analysis of this model are considered, and applications to demographic modelling, biological dynamics and chemical kinetics are given."
Correspondence: Yu. S. Popkov, All-Union Institute for Systems Studies, 9 Prospekt 60-Let Oktyabria, 117312 Moscow B-312, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

55:30740 Soroko, E. L. On mathematical models in demography. [O matematicheskom modelirovanii v demografii.] In: Metody issledovaniya, edited by A. G. Vishnevskii. 1986. 119-32, 182 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the use of mathematical models for describing social and demographic changes in a population. Natural increase and migration are used as examples.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30741 Srinivas, M. N. The use of the method of participant observation in the study of demographic phenomena. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 451-7 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author assesses the method of participant observation in the study of demographic processes, with emphasis on the importance of "knowledge of the community's culture, its internal structure and its relations with other groups or communities...." The increased use of micro-approach studies to supplement macro-approach research is recommended. The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30742 Swart, J. H. Stable controls in age-dependent population dynamics. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 95, No. 1, Jul 1989. 53-63 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The classical age-dependent population model is considered, in which mortality depends on total population and fertility is age-dependent. It is shown that in general such systems are not completely controllable with respect to a control variable in the mortality function, but that in certain circumstances a suitable control can be found to hold the population at a specified level."
Correspondence: J. H. Swart, University of Natal, Durban, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:30743 Venkatacharya, K. Robust estimates of birth rate and expectation of life with applications to some African countries. RIPS Working Paper, No. RIPS/WPS/4/88, 1988. 39 pp. University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies [RIPS]: Legon, Ghana. In Eng.
"An examination of the Preston integrated method of estimating simultaneously birth rate and adult mortality [in] some African countries with two censuses is made. For some African countries with defective age-sex data this approach tended to overstate birth rates. Alternative methods are suggested. In these methods first birth rate is estimated using...Coale's approach....With the knowledge on birth rate the adult mortality is estimated using Preston-Coale generalized stable equation. The usefulness of this approach in evaluation of the data is illustrated."
Correspondence: RIPS, University of Ghana, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghaha. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30744 Vishnevskii, A. G. Methods of investigation. [Metody issledovaniya.] Demografiya: Problemy i Perspektivy, 1986. 184 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a collection of articles by different authors concerning methods of demographic investigation and analysis. The geographical scope is worldwide, but a few articles focus on the USSR.
Correspondence: Mysl', Leninskii Pr. 15, 117071 Moscow, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30745 Weinstock, Evelyn; Rorres, Chris. Conditions determining the local stability of populations. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1989. 69-87, 89 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The conditions that determine the local stability classification of an equilibrium population configuration are analyzed. The population investigated is age-structured and density-dependent, where density is determined by an age-weighted population size. Two demographic parameters are introduced: the marginal birth rate and marginal death rate, which describe the marginal density-dependence of the birth and death rates of the equilibrium population. Certain necessary and/or sufficient conditions determining stability are developed, most of them involving the net reproduction rate of the population, and examples illustrating these conditions are presented."
Correspondence: E. Weinstock, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Glassboro State College, Glassboro, NJ 08028. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30746 Wilmoth, John R. On the statistical analysis of large arrays of demographic rates. Pub. Order No. DA8901032. 1988. 158 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author proposes a mathematical model for analyzing large arrays of demographic rates from a descriptive point of view. The model is applied to post-World War II mortality data for males and females in France and Japan. "Various patterns of mortality change over age and time for the four populations are brought out clearly by the additive and multiplicative terms, while in all cases the diagonal portion of the model succeeds in identifying cohorts with a peculiar mortality experience."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Princeton University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(11).


Copyright © 1989-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.