F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

55:30208 Abul-ata, Mohamed F.; Suchindran, C. M. Truncation bias in the first two moments of birth intervals according to data ascertainment method. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 532-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"How truncation bias affects the mean and variance of birth-order-specific birth interval distributions is our focus here. We attempt to shed some light on the magnitude and direction of bias for four ascertainment methods of considering birth interval data....We discuss sensitivity of the mean length of birth interval for detecting changes in fertility levels for each ascertainment method. To this end, stochastic models...are derived based on certain assumptions. The first two moments corresponding to these models are applied to a hypothetical population with assumed fertility parameters. The patterns of variation in the mean and variance of birth-order-specific intervals are then examined for varying fertility levels, birth orders, observation periods (marital durations), and data ascertainment methods."
Correspondence: C. M. Suchindran, Carolina Population Center, University Square 300A, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30209 Adeokun, Lawrence A. Investigating the timing of additional children in non-contraceptive societies. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 127-45 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author examines the relative merits of alternative approaches to fertility analysis in a predominately non-contraceptive population, using data concerning the Yoruba of Nigeria collected during the Next Child Project. He stresses the need to combine qualitative and quantitative approaches and for innovation in the analytical techniques employed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30210 Anderton, Douglas L. Comment on Knodel's "Starting, stopping, and spacing during the early stages of fertility transition" Demography, Vol. 26, No. 3, Aug 1989. 467-72 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The author comments on an article by John Knodel concerning the relative importance of stopping and spacing behaviors in historical fertility declines. He critically examines "Knodel's use of age at last birth and McDonald's decomposition [of spacing and stopping effects, and asserts that they] are inadequate to identify the possible role of spacing in the population and potentially misleading." He illustrates the discussion with "parity-specific mean birth intervals for women with both 6 and 8 children ever born from the 1860 birth cohort of once-married women in Utah [United States]." A response by McDonald and Knodel is included (pp. 471-2).
For the article by John Knodel, published in 1987, see 53:20277.
Correspondence: D. L. Anderton, Department of Sociology, University of Massachusetts, Thompson Hall, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30211 Augustyniak, Hanna. Ethnographic factors in environmental differences in female reproductive attitudes and behavior (studies in the Warmia and Mazury regions). [Czynnik etnograficzny w srodowiskowym roznicowaniu postaw i zachowan prokreacyjnych rodzin (badania na Warmii i Mazurach).] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 286, 1989. 262 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author analyzes the impact of environmental, ethnographic, and regional factors on family formation, reproductive attitudes, and reproductive behavior in Poland. Data are from a 1979 survey of 3,428 married couples in Warmia, Mazury, and Lubawska, regions settled by Poles after World War II. Factors affecting fertility include marriage age, family characteristics, and educational status. Fertility differentials by ethnographic group are noted, although a general trend toward small families is apparent.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30212 Avramov, Dragana. Current population problems in Yugoslavia. [Aktuelni demografsko populacioni problemi u SFRJ.] Demografska Sveska CDI, No. 1, [1988?]. vi, 20, [4] pp. University of Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic Research Centre: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author compares reproductive behavior in Yugoslavia in the 1980s with trends in the more demographically developed European countries. Natural increase, birth rate, and total fertility rate are analyzed by parity and maternal age. Economic conditions, family planning programs, improvements in women's status, changing marital patterns, and women's educational levels are considered as they affect the Yugoslav fertility transition. Internal geographic variations in fertility rates, below-replacement levels, and future implications are discussed. Data are from U.N. population estimates and projections as assessed in 1984.
Correspondence: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Belgrade, Narodnog fronta 45, Postanski fah 927, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30213 Azelmat, Mustapha; Ayad, Mohamed; Belhachmi, Houcine. National Survey on Family Planning, Fertility, and Health of the Population of Morocco (ENPS), 1987. [Enquete Nationale sur la Planification Familiale, la Fecondite et la Sante de la Population au Maroc (ENPS), 1987.] Mar 1989. xxii, 187 pp. Ministere de la Sante Publique, Service des Etudes et de l'Information Sanitaire: Rabat, Morocco; Westinghouse Institute for Resource Development, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Fre.
Results are presented from the 1987 National Survey on Family Planning, Fertility, and Health of the Population undertaken in Morocco as one in a series of Demographic and Health Surveys conducted by Westinghouse's Institute for Resource Development. Following an introductory chapter to the country and the survey, chapters are included on nuptiality and exposure to risk of pregnancy, fertility, contraception, fertility preferences, and mortality and health. Appendixes are included on the organization of the survey and sources of data error.
Correspondence: DHS, IRD/Westinghouse, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 20145. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30214 Barmby, Tim; Cigno, Alessandro. A sequential probability model of fertility patterns. Hull Economic Research Papers, No. 160, Jan 1988. 15 pp. University of Hull, Department of Economics and Commerce: Hull, England. In Eng.
"In the present paper we have adopted a sequential method of estimation [of British fertility patterns] which allows us to make maximum use of available information about individuals (from survey data) and about the economic environment (from aggregate time series and other sources). This estimation procedure mimics the actual sequential decision process of parents, whose actions year by year are conditioned by the realisation of past decisions (actual births) and by new information about the economic environment." Factors affecting fertility decisions include age at marriage, child worth, husband's and wife's income, and women's educational status. Data are from official and other published sources.
Correspondence: Department of Economics, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30215 Bendardaf, Ibrahim B. Socioeconomic modernization and demographic changes in Syria. Pub. Order No. DA 8826581. 1988. 191 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study analyzed empirically, using the Syrian Fertility Survey data, the relationships between socioeconomic modernization, fertility and fertility control....The observed fertility analysis showed that the most important determinants of children ever born are respectively: duration of marriage, the efficiency with which contraceptive methods are used (specially the oral pill), second birth interval, first birth interval and secondary sterility, child mortality, spontaneous abortion, and breastfeeding."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Missouri.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(9).

55:30216 Benz, Ernest J. Fertility in three Baden villages, 1650-1900. 1988. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author studies fertility in three Austrian villages between the years 1650 and 1900. Data are from "reconstituted family histories in local genealogies...as well as economic and political data from municipal and provincial archives. Extensive tables, graphs, and maps document the fertility transition on the densely populated Rhine plain. A measure of the percentage of couples practising family limitation is introduced." Celibacy, illegitimacy, marital fertility rates, contraceptive use, and infant mortality rates, and the variables affecting them are traced through two centuries.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Toronto.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(9).

55:30217 Birg, Herwig. A biographic theory of aging and fertility. [Az oregedes es a termekenyseg biografiai elmelete.] Demografia, Vol. 30, No. 4, 1987. 409-30 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
The concept of a biographic approach to the analysis of the effects of economic change on the life course in modern society is introduced. Particular attention is given to changes in the aging process and their implications for long-term obligations, as well as their impact on fertility. The effect on fertility of changes in the labor force and in employment opportunities is also examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30218 Blau, David M.; Robins, Philip K. Fertility, employment, and child-care costs. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-6, Jun 1988. 38 pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"A sample of labor market and birth histories is used to estimate the effects of child-care costs on employment and fertility decisions. The empirical analysis is reduced form in nature and is based on hazard functions for transitions among various fertility-employment states. Higher child-care costs are estimated to lower the birth rate for nonemployed women, but not for employed women. Higher child-care costs also increase the rate of leaving employment and reduce the rate of entering employment. The results suggest that potential behavioral effects of child care subsidies could be significant and should be taken into account when alternative child-care policies are being debated." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30219 Bonneuil, Noel. Contextual and structural factors in fertility behavior. [Conjoncture et structure dans le comportement de fecondite.] Population, Vol. 44, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1989. 135-57 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author critically examines the concept of cycles in population dynamics as developed by Easterlin. An alternative format for the analysis of fertility trends in European countries since 1931 is proposed using a chaos theory that allows the net reproduction rate to be depicted as a dynamic time-dependent system. This reveals the existence of two periodic cycles separated by an unstable pass. The impact of mortality on these cycles is also considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30220 Bozik, James E.; Bell, William R. Forecasting age specific fertility using principal components. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 396-401 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The authors present a mathematical model that uses principal components to forecast age-specific fertility rates. Data applied to the model concern white women and cover the period 1921-1984. The authors conclude that the "approach appears to have potential for producing reasonable forecasts and forecast intervals for the age-specific rates using a small number of components."
Correspondence: J. E. Bozik, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30221 Bravo, Jorge H. Human fertility and internal migration in contemporary Mexico. Pub. Order No. DA8902042. 1988. 117 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"Economic and extra-economic factors of human fertility and internal migration are analyzed in the context of contemporary Mexico, the data covering mainly the period 1960-1980. The main determinants considered are landholding, geographical location in relation to metropolitan centers, policy and institutional factors."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California at Berkeley.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(11).

55:30222 Callum, Christine; Farid, Samir; Moussa, Mohamed. Child loss and its impact on fertility. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 239-78 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The impact of infant and child mortality on fertility in Egypt is analyzed using data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey. "There was a significantly lower likelihood of contraceptive use in the event of an infant death, which persisted after taking parity and socio-economic status into account. A significant reduction in interval length associated with an infant death was observed among users and non-users of contraception, though it was more pronounced among the former." Regional variations are analyzed. Findings also indicate "that the effect on ultimate parity represents the most striking impact of infant mortality on fertility."
Correspondence: M. Moussa, Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, Solah Salem Road, POB 2086, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30223 Cigno, Alessandro; Ermisch, John. A microeconomic analysis of the timing of births. Hull Economic Research Papers, No. 159, Aug 1987. 45 pp. University of Hull, Department of Economics and Commerce: Hull, England. In Eng.
"An intertemporal microeconomic model of family decisions is developed to analyse the effects of personal characteristics, wage rates and career structures on the time profile of childbearing among married couples [in the United Kingdom]. The effects of the mother's age on the 'quality' of the child, and the financial implications of interrupting the mother's career to care for a child are taken explicitly into account. The demographic consequences of economic policies are also examined." Data are from the Women and Employment Survey, conducted in Great Britain among a sample of women aged 16-59 in 1980.
Correspondence: Department of Economics, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30224 Coale, Ansley J. A reassessment of fertility trends in Egypt, taking account of the Egyptian Fertility Survey. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 21-86 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The data from the Egyptian Fertility Survey were analysed to ascertain the trends just before 1980 in fertility and marriage. The analysis consisted of a detailed examination of tabulations of births and marriages by single years of age and by single years of occurrence prior to 1980....Nothing in the Egyptian Fertility Survey results lends support to the appearance of a large increase in the rate of childbearing in 1979. The fact that this increase implies a sharp rise in duration-specific fertility at all durations supports an interpretation of a change in completeness of registration in 1979 rather than a genuine increase in the birth rate. The occurrence of a substantial decline in fertility between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s is confirmed....There has also been a decline in marital fertility at higher ages and higher durations of marriage."
Correspondence: A. J. Coale, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30225 Cochrane, Susan H.; Farid, Samir M. Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: analysis and explanation. World Bank Discussion Paper, No. 43, ISBN 0-8213-1208-1. LC 89-5792. 1989. xiv, 122 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper presents a detailed analysis of fertility in 10 sub-Saharan African countries for which World Fertility Survey data are available....The analysis indicates that fertility is higher in sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions of the world and that in 7 of the 10 countries it has been rising to some extent over the last 20 years whereas in other parts of the world it has been falling. The high current level of fertility results from a pattern of early and universal marriage and very little use of contraception. Fertility would be even higher if it were not for prolonged and near universal breastfeeding. Low usage of contraception arises from relatively poorer contraceptive knowledge and higher family size preferences and higher infant and child mortality than is generally true in other regions."
Correspondence: World Bank, Publications Department J2190, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30226 Das Gupta, Monica. The use of genealogies for reconstructing social history and analyzing fertility behaviour in a North Indian village. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 88-102 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter experiments with an innovative technique of relating fertility behaviour to its social and economic determinants....An attempt has been made to combine genealogical information with social historical information on the families in the genealogies, in order to test the applicability of some of the widely known theories of fertility behaviour in the context of the experience of successive generations within one village in northern India....Essentially, these theories fall into two groups, which are in no sense mutually exclusive. The first is that children are desired because they are economically valuable, while the second is that they are desired as security assets against the risks their parents face."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30227 Dechering, Wim. Fertility trends on tea plantations in Sri Lanka: a socio-demographic research project among Indian Tamils. [Ontwikkeling van fertiliteit op theeplantages in Sri Lanka: een sociaal-demografisch onderzoek onder Indiase Tamils.] Sociaal Antropoligische Studien, No. 5, ISBN 90-6695-016-1. LC 88-107185. 1987. 305 pp. DSWO Press: Leiden, Netherlands. In Dut.
Demographic trends among the Indian Tamils working on tea plantations in central Sri Lanka are analyzed using data collected by the author between 1978 and 1980. The author notes that since World War II, both fertility and mortality have declined rapidly among this lower-caste, poor, stateless, and relatively isolated population. Consideration is given to the demographic impact of international trends in the tea market, nationalization of the plantations, and the decline of the plantations over time, particularly with regard to age at marriage, infant and child morbidity and mortality, fertility, and family planning.
Correspondence: DSWO Press, Middelstegracht 4, 2312 TW Leiden, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30228 Dewit, David J.; Rao, K. V.; Murty, Komanduri S. Covariates of birth spacing patterns in Panama: a hazard model analysis. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 116-7 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The purpose of the present paper is to examine the importance of non-biological factors on the hazard rate of moving from first to second birth parity. Using data from the Panama World Fertility Survey (1975), this paper examines sources of variation in the spacing of births in the second birth interval among 3,004 Panamanian women in the reproductive ages, 20 to 49....A set of socioeconomic and demographic covariates are entered into a proportional hazards model to observe the effect on the outcome variable survival. To control for age effects, the analysis is carried out on three separate birth cohorts: 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49 years."
Correspondence: D. J. Dewit, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30229 El-Shalakani, M.; Pandey, A. Distribution of births in an abrupt sequence: a stochastic model. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 95, No. 1, Jul 1989. 1-11 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A probability model for the distribution of number of births in a time segment...has been derived. The provision that birth propensities in the process of human reproduction may change over time has been considered." The model is illustrated with data from a demographic survey conducted in 1969-1970 in rural Varanasi, India.
Correspondence: M. El-Shalakani, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:30230 Ford, Kathleen; Huffman, Sandra L.; Chowdhury, A. K. M. A.; Becker, Stan; Allen, Hubert; Menken, Jane. Birth-interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh and maternal weight. Demography, Vol. 26, No. 3, Aug 1989. 425-37 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article reports on the results of a study conducted in rural Bangladesh on the influence of maternal weight on the components of birth intervals, including gestation and intrauterine mortality, the duration of postpartum amenorrhea, and the duration of waiting time to conception (the menstrual interval). When biological factors (including maternal age, parity, and supplementation practices) and behavioral variables, including religion, education, and occupation, were controlled, maternal weight was found to be related to the risk of intrauterine mortality and to the probability of resuming menses in the postpartum period. The implications of these findings for policies and programs in developing countries are discussed." Data are from the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, and cover the period 1975-1980.
Correspondence: K. Ford, Department of Population Planning and International Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30231 Fulton, Duncan; Randall, Sara. Households, women's roles and prestige as factors determining nuptiality and fertility differentials in Mali. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 191-211 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"Through a comparison of two populations we explore the determination of different fertility [and nuptiality] patterns. In particular this paper aims to address the separation of those constraints which operate on the population as a whole from those which affect the decisions and actions of smaller units and individuals....We argue that an examination of roles, interests and decisions involved in marriage and reproduction in the two societies concerned suggests that while differences in marriage patterns are responsible for the observed differences in fertility, it does not follow that fertility strategies are determining marriage." Factors considered include men's and women's status, socioeconomic characteristics, familial relationships, social class, and household structure. The authors incorporate a micro-approach to demographic analysis that uses supplementary data to interpret results. Data are for two rural areas in Mali.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30232 Fux, Beat. Overlying cultural factors: the saturation of tensions as an explanation of fertility decline in Switzerland. [Uberlagerte kulturelle Faktoren: ein Sattigungsmodell zur Erklarung des schweizerischen Geburtenruckgangs.] Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique, Vol. 125, No. 2, Jun 1989. 165-88 pp. Bern, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The purpose of this article is to provide an explanation of the recent decline of fertility in Switzerland with a saturation model. This process, which can be observed in the majority of highly developed countries since about 1965, is part of a long-term process of limitation of births." Factors considered in the model include the segregation between the work place and household, the development of social security systems, excessive consumption, and changing values. The model attempts to show that individuals are experiencing increasing structural and cultural tensions due to an increase in the impact of such factors that lead them to react in a variety of ways, some of which can affect the number and timing of births. The author suggests that both the fertility level and fertility decline have different determinants and concludes that fears of the "dying out" of the Swiss population are premature.
Correspondence: B. Fux, Universitat Zurich, Soziologisches Institut, Birchstrasse 95, CH-8050 Zurich, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:30233 Gorwaney, Naintara. Patterns, trends, and determinants of immigrant fertility: assimilation of the foreign born. 1988. University of Southern California: Los Angeles, California. In Eng.
"'Assimilation', 'disruption', and 'selectivity' perspectives have been used to examine the impact of migration on fertility. The purpose of this research is to describe (a) fertility trends and determinants among immigrants to the United States from different countries in 1980, and (b) to examine the extent to which the observed fertility changes and patterns are compatible with these different perspectives....The data are drawn from 1/100 public use samples of the 1970 and the 1980 United States censuses....This research makes a comparative analysis of migrants to the United States from 13 high- and low-fertility countries and regions from North America and Europe, Latin America and Asia....The analyses of these perspectives suggest that the time dimension of the fertility measure must be taken into consideration. In the short-run, disruption is applicable, and in the long-run, assimilation and/or selectivity perspectives are more applicable."
Correspondence: Micrographics Department, Doheny Library, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0892. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(8).

55:30234 Guatemala. Ministerio de Salud Publica y Asistencia Social (Guatemala City, Guatemala); Instituto de Nutricion de Centro America y Panama (Guatemala City, Guatemala); Westinghouse Institute for Resource Development. Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Columbia, Maryland). National Survey of Infant and Maternal Health, 1987. [Encuesta Nacional de Salud Materno Infantil, 1987.] May 1989. xxii, 140 pp. Ministerio de Salud Publica y Asistencia Social: Guatemala City, Guatemala; Westinghouse Institute for Resource Development, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Spa.
Results are presented from the 1987 National Survey of Infant and Maternal Health undertaken in Guatemala as one in a series of Demographic and Health Surveys being conducted by Westinghouse's Institute for Resource Development. Following a general introduction to the country and the survey, chapters are included on infant mortality and health; nuptiality, lactation, and postpartum amenorrhea; fertility levels and trends; knowledge about fertility control and use of contraception; and fertility preferences. Appendixes are included on survey methodology, the sample surveyed, and data quality.
Correspondence: DHS, IRD/Westinghouse, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30235 Halli, S. S. The seasonality of births in Canada. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jul 1989. 321-7 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This study uses the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey data on reproductive history to examine birth and pregnancy seasonalities, and shows that the 'worst' months for births are January and February and the 'best' months are March, April and May. There is no systematic pattern in the seasonality of pregnancies, possibly because effective birth control allows couples to plan the timing of births." Consideration is given to maternal age, climatic and biological factors, and infant mortality.
Correspondence: S. S. Halli, Department of Sociology, University of Manitoba Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30236 Havanon, Napaporn. Rice, labor, and children: a study of peasants' livelihood strategies in northeast Thailand. Pub. Order No. DA8822527. 1988. 245 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study examines the ways in which rural households organize their economic activities and demographic behavior as responses to resource constraints and opportunities in a particular physical and socioeconomic environment. The analysis examines two major aspects of peasants' responses--production and fertility." The data concern rural peasant households in northeast Thailand that grow rice as the staple food and tend to maintain their farm work as the primary source of income. "The findings indicate that the absolute amount of wage income the individual households receive does not have any impact on the demand for children. However, the percentage of total income derived from wage income, net of total household income, does have a positive impact on the demand for children. This finding points to the importance of the structure of household income rather than income level per se in determining the desire for children in rural populations."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Brown University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(8).

55:30237 Hoem, Britta. To what extent have mothers of two children who participated in the Swedish Fertility Survey of 1981 had children at the desired time and what has this meant for third-child fertility? [I vilken utstrackning har tvabarnsmodrarna i den svenska fruktsamhetsundersokningen fran 1981 fatt barnen vid onskade tidpunkter och vad har det betytt for tredjebarnsfruktsamheten?] Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, ISBN 91-7820-038-5. [1989?]. 17, 7 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe.
This report follows up the 1981 Swedish Fertility Survey and concerns family relationships and other factors affecting the timing of the first two children born and the effect of this timing on subsequent fertility. Separate consideration is given to mothers' marital status at the first birth and after the second and to mothers' educational level.
Correspondence: Section of Demography, University of Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30238 Hogan, Timothy D. Granger causality and the link between fertility and female labor force patricipation. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 537-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper presents results of formal tests of the nature of the causal link between fertility and women's labor force participation [in the United States] based upon the econometric conception of causality developed by Granger....This project's results provide evidence to reject the hypotheses that work status determines fertility or that the two decisions are mutually determined. This bivariate analysis does not, however, provide any statistical test of the hypothesis that some other factor/set of factors determine both fertility and work status."
Correspondence: T. D. Hogan, Center for Business Research, College of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4406. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30239 Horne, Amelia D.; El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. Dynamics of childbearing statistics in twentieth century developing and developed countries. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 526-31 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In the present paper, the dynamics of childbearing indices in the twentieth century are presented for 21 developing and 30 developed countries, the latter of which, having completed the demographic transition, make a convenient point of comparison for developing regions. The experience of childbearing over time is measured by projected ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive span, and inter-birth spacing. The extension of the childbearing models...is applied to the 51 countries....Thus, a detailed picture of the timing of fertility for synthetic cohorts of women is obtained....Historical annual data on age-specific fertility rates, required for the calculation of the childbearing statistics presented here, were collected for all developing and developed countries."
Correspondence: M. N. El-Khorazaty, P.O. Box 5835, Manama, Bahrain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30240 Hungary. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal (Budapest, Hungary). Fertility data from the 1984 microcensus (working material). [Termekenysegi adatok az 1984. evi mikrocenzus alapjan (munkaanyag).] ISBN 963-7056-19-X. 1987. 219 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
Fertility data for Hungary from the 1984 microcensus are presented by educational status, occupation, household structure, and housing. The data concern birth order, birth intervals, duration of time living with children, and fertility following remarriage. Additional statistics are provided on health, higher education, commuting, and child-care facilities.
Correspondence: Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly U.5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30241 Impens, K. K. The impact of female unemployment on fertility in Flanders. In: Population and family in low countries VI, edited by R. L. Cliquet, G. Dooghe, J. de Jong-Gierveld, and F. van Poppel. Vol. 18, 1989. 119-40 pp. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands; Population and Family Study Centre [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The authors examine the impact of female unemployment on fertility in Dutch-speaking Belgium. "Parity-specific bivariate life tables and multivariate proportional hazards analyses on the birth and (un)employment history of the NEGO IV sample (3,101 female respondents of the Flemish Region, aged 20 to 44 years, 1982-1983), reveal a significant birth probability reducing impact of unemployment. This effect is parity-specific, direct as well as indirect, and, as far as the first birth timing is concerned, declines with rising educational level. Some implications for fertility theory and social, family and demographic policy are deduced."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30242 Iriso Napal, Pedro L.; Reher, David-Sven. Fertility and its determinants in Spain, 1887-1920. An attempt at an explanation. [La fecundidad y sus determinantes en Espana, 1887-1920. Un ensayo de interpretacion.] Revista Espanola de Investigaciones Sociologicas, No. 39, 1987. 45-118 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Fertility trends in Spain from 1887 to 1920 are analyzed. Using path analysis, the authors first develop a model of rural fertility. Some key factors affecting fertility are examined in detail; these include nuptiality, infant mortality, male labor force activity, illiteracy, and urbanization. The authors then analyze urban fertility in the same way. Consideration is also given to the significance of migration and cultural factors.
Location: University of Pennsylvania Library, Philadelphia, PA.

55:30243 Khalifa, Mona A. Determinants of birth intervals in Sudan. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jul 1989. 301-20 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Using individual birth history data from the Sudan Fertility Survey, 1979, parity-related differences in fertility are demonstrated, as well as differences between socioeconomic groups. Rural women, women with no education and those married to uneducated husbands show rapid parity progression and its cumulative effects on fertility which are consistent over all birth intervals. Urban women, women with some education and those married to educated husbands, however, go rapidly through their second and third birth intervals and then more slowly at higher parities."
Correspondence: M. A. Khalifa, Department of Statistics, Cairo University, Khartoum Branch, POB 1055, Khartoum, Sudan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30244 Knodel, John; Pramualratana, Anthony; Havanon, Napaporn. Focus group research on fertility decline in Thailand: methodology and findings. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 41-55 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The authors utilize the technique of focus group research to study the fertility transition in Thailand. They define focus groups, discuss the use of this research method as a means of demographic inquiry, describe its advantages and limitations, and present the methodology for data interpretation. The second part of the paper focuses on Thai reproductive behavior as studied through this qualitative approach. Social change, cultural background, contraceptive use, and family planning services are examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30245 Kravdal, Oystein. Sociodemographic differentials in the number of children: a study of women born 1935, 1945 and 1955. Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 89/7, ISBN 82-537-2766-6. 1989. 138 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng. with sum. in Nor.
This is the first report from a project involving the analysis of recent fertility trends in Norway using data from censuses and the Central Population Register. The focus is on variations in the total number of children at ages 29 and 39 for women born in 1935, 1945, and 1955. Factors considered include marital status, age at marriage, educational status, geographic factors, religion, and occupation.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 Dep., Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30246 Krishnan, Vijaya. The effects of religious factors on childlessness: the Canadian case. Population Research Laboratory Discussion Paper, No. 58, Apr 1989. 24 pp. University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper examines, within the framework of logistic regression analysis, the effects of selected socio-economic and demographic factors (e.g., age at marriage, religious preference, religious assiduity, and wife's wage) on childlessness using data on women who are currently married or living common-law, aged 35-44, from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey. Differential childlessness among two groups of women, classified by generation of Canadian residence, are examined in order to see whether generational status accounts for any observed effect. The findings show that, contrary to earlier assertions, Catholics are more likely than non-Catholics to be voluntarily childless. The evidence, however, suggests that wives who attend church services quite frequently are less predisposed to choose the non-parenthood role. Also, the results indicate that choice of motherhood and wife's participation in the labour force are incompatible; the higher the wage, the more likely she is to remain childless."
Correspondence: Population Research Laboratory, Department of Sociology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30247 Lee, Sang Hun. Trends in birth order in Korea: 1975-1984. Journal of Population and Health Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2, Dec 1988. 201-11 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Kor.
The author examines changes in the birth order distribution in the Republic of Korea from 1975 to 1984, a period of rapid economic growth and fertility decline. Changes are analyzed by age of mother and place of residence. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: S. H. Lee, Korea Institute for Population and Health, San 42-14, Bulgwang-dong, Eunpyung-ku, Seoul 122-040, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30248 Liao, Tim F. Outliers and influential cases in cross-national research: testing the threshold hypothesis of fertility decline. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-5, Oct 1987. 22, [9] pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"Reanalyzing previously published research on the threshold hypothesis of fertility decline, this paper demonstrates the sensitivity to influential cases of cross-national analysis of aggregate data using multiple regression. This sensitivity becomes more crucial if the analysis hinges on the statistical test of one or a few parameter estimates. In such a case, the removal of merely one influential observation from the estimation may reverse the conclusion that would be achieved otherwise." The geographical focus is on Latin America.
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30249 Lord, Evelyn. Fairs, festivals and fertility in Alkmaar, North Holland, 1650-1810. Local Population Studies, No. 42, Spring 1989. 43-53 pp. Matlock, England. In Eng.
The author examines seasonal trends in fertility in Alkmaar, North Holland, for the period 1650-1810. The timing of events such as fairs and holidays is studied "to see what effect these had on the conception level and whether or not any difference can be observed between these and other societies where festivals fell in the early part of the year." Data are from baptismal records of several religious denominations.
Correspondence: E. Lord, Department of English Local History, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30250 McNicoll, Geoffrey. On the local context of demographic change. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 10-24 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author discusses empirical research directions for the micro-approach to the study of fertility. He discusses two things necessary "to make the micro-studies enterprise genuinely productive for the field....First, a much less casual tie between data gathering and theory development than has existed for the most part thus far....And second, research that is informed by immediate and pressing concerns of public policy...." The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30251 Michaels, Gerald Y.; Goldberg, Wendy A. The transition to parenthood: current theory and research. Cambridge Studies in Social and Emotional Development, ISBN 0-521-35418-8. LC 87-32649. 1988. xii, 381 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This is a collection of studies by various authors concerning the transition to parenthood. "Following an introductory chapter that offers perspectives on the transition to parenthood, the chapters in Part I examine typical or normative development during pregnancy and the first year of new parenthood. Factors that promote dimensions of growth and change for individuals, couples, and families are discussed. The chapters in Part II consider biomedical and psychosocial risk factors that affect the parent and infant. Parent risks, such as maternal age, and infant risks, such as premature birth, are discussed in conjunction with adaptive and maladaptive modes of response to risk conditions. The chapters in Part III cover both informal and formal means of assisting prospective and new parents. Interventions suitable for the pre-conception, pregnancy, and postnatal periods are presented, and prescriptive recommendations are offered. A concluding chapter by the editors follows this section." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:30252 Mougne, Christine M. Structural change and fertility decline in a northern Thai community: an historical perspective. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 103-23 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
Anthropological fieldwork was conducted between 1972 and 1974 in the northern Thai village of Ban Pong to investigate the socioeconomic factors affecting the exceptionally positive response of Thai women to family planning. "This chapter will concentrate on two main areas of structural change--land and labour, and marriage and residence--and examine the interaction between such changes and the decline of fertility. The analysis will begin at the time of the most recent settlement of Ban Pong one hundred years ago, and will follow the patterns of socioeconomic and demographic change up to the present day. I will also look briefly at the position of women in the community to highlight the significance of this important cultural factor on changing fertility behaviour."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30253 Murphy, Mike. The progression to the third birth in Sweden. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 52, ISBN 91-7820-039-3. May 1989. 27 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the patterns of progression from second to third birth in Sweden in the period 1960 to 1980 from analysis of the 1981...Swedish Fertility Survey. The approach adopted is the widely-used one of hazards regression which attempts to explain...these patterns of differential progression to the third birth. Within this framework, a number of social, demographic and economic factors which were obtained prior to the third conception are included in a formal regression-type model which quantifies their relative and joint importance. Such techniques are both powerful and appropriate for fitting models to survival [processes] such as this one. However, they are not without their problems, and some of these will be brought out and illustrated in areas relating to: the form of data source, the variables used in the analysis, [and] transformation and interpretation of results."
Correspondence: Demography Unit, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30254 Nawar, Laila; Hobcraft, John. An analysis of determinants of fertility. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 87-100 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to take a summary view of the major determinants of fertility included in the Egyptian Fertility Survey. Our analysis includes both the proximate and the more remote determinants and is particularly concerned to discover how the remote determinants operate through the proximate determinants to bring about observed levels of fertility. The proximate determinants of fertility explicitly identified here include entry into sexual exposure through first marriage, [age at first marriage], the impact of union dissolution, contraception and periods of infecundity following a birth....The remote determinants are the many socio-economic, cultural, institutional and community factors which operate to alter fertility-related behaviour." The authors include a regression analysis of correlates of fertility subsequent to first marriage.
Correspondence: L. Nawar, Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics, Salah Salem Road, POB 2086, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30255 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). The number of children in families. [Barnetall i ekteskap.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 88/21, ISBN 82-537-2689-9. 1988. 39 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
This report provides an overview of married women's fertility using 1980 Norwegian census data. Sections are included on marriages by number of children, number of children by duration of marriage, and number of children within a marriage by residence, employment, and education.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyra, P.B. 8131 Dep., Oslo 1, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30256 Pandey, Arvind; Dwivedi, S. N.; Mishra, R. N. A stochastic model for the study of last closed birth intervals with some biosocial components. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-27, Oct 1988. 31 pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"We present a stochastic model to describe the variation in last closed birth intervals for women of a given marriage duration by parity as well as regardless of parity. The model is derived under some simplified assumptions relating to human reproduction process accounting for the nonexposure period in the beginning of the reproductive life caused by such biosocial components as adolescent sterility and temporary separation between partners, called an inoperative period. We illustrate the model regardless of parity on an observed set of data taken from a rural area of northern India and estimate the risk of conception before and after the first birth."
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30257 Pandey, Arvind; Suchindran, Chirayath M. Modelling fertility with mortality as a competing risk: an application. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-19, Jun 1988. 35 pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"A set of stochastic models is presented to study the human reproductive process with mortality of women at successive ages as a competing risk. Distributions of ages of women at successive births and birth intervals by order and final parity are derived. These models are used to compare the risk of fertility as the function of (1) age only, (2) parity only, and (3) both age and parity. We apply these models using vital statistics data on fertility and mortality of women aged 15-49 in [the] United States for the period 1970."
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30258 Pandey, Arvind; Suchindran, C. M. Probability models of reproductive events. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 515-9 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we derive probability distribution of maternal ages at any specific order of birth, at final parity, and at next-to-last birth from current fertility and mortality experiences of [a] population. From these distributions we obtain the mean maternal ages conditioned on birth order and final parity and the mean birth interval. In addition, we estimate the parity progression ratios and ultimate parity distribution of the population." These concepts are illustrated using U.S. official data for the year 1970.
Correspondence: A. Pandey, University of North Carolina, University Square East 300A, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30259 Pandey, Arvind; Suchindran, Chirayath M. Probability models of reproductive events using vital statistics data. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-3, Aug 1987. 17, [2] pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"A class of analytical models to study the reproductive events of women from current fertility and mortality experiences of a population is presented. Distributions of maternal ages conditioned on specific birth order, final parity, and next-to-last birth have been derived so as to estimate their moments from the data on age-specific fertility and mortality rates. Further, fertility indices, such as mean birth interval, parity progression ratios, and ultimate parity distribution are ascertained." The models are applied to 1970 U.S. vital statistics data.
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30260 Peng, Xizhe. Major determinants of China's fertility transition. China Quarterly, No. 117, Mar 1989. 1-37 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The major determinants of China's fertility transition over the past 40 years are reviewed. The emphasis is on the links between intermediate variables such as socioeconomic and institutional factors and the decline in fertility, as well as on differences among regions. The author concludes that China has succeeded in reducing fertility prior to extensive modernization, due primarily to the development of an effective family planning program. The particular cultural and political factors that enabled such a program to be developed so effectively are noted.
Correspondence: X. Peng, Institute of Population Research, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:30261 Poulain, Michel. A note concerning the comparability of five-year legitimate fertility rates calculated by age groups at marriage. [Note concernant la comparabilite des taux quinquennaux de fecondite legitime calcules par groupes d'ages au mariage.] DH: Bulletin d'Information, No. 53, Nov 1988. 31-40 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Some methodological issues concerning the calculation of five-year marital fertility rates for age groups immediately following marriage are considered. Data for France in the eighteenth century are used to illustrate the issues discussed. The emphasis is on the difficulty of making comparisons between the first five-year period in which the marriage occurred and subsequent five-year periods.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30262 Pullum, Thomas W.; Tedrow, Lucky M.; Herting, Jerald R. Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions. Demography, Vol. 26, No. 3, Aug 1989. 485-98 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980."
Correspondence: T. W. Pullum, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30263 Rao, K. Vaninadha; Balakrishnan, T. R. Timing of first birth and second birth spacing in Canada. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jul 1989. 293-300 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In Canadian society the influence of first birth timing on the subsequent birth interval has been eroded over time, as shown by the Canadian Fertility Survey of 1984. The influence of first birth timing is significant for second births among women married during the baby boom period, but not for those married thereafter. Religiosity, marital status, and place of residence are significant factors in second birth timing in Canada."
Correspondence: K. V. Rao, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30264 Rasevic, Miroslav. The demographic implications of low fertility trends in Proper Serbia. [Demografske implikacije nedovoljnog radanja u SR Srbiji van teritorija SAP.] Statisticka Revija, Vol. 36, No. 3-4, 1986. 160-6 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The implications of current low fertility trends in Proper Serbia (Serbia excluding Kosovo and Vojvodina), Yugoslavia, up to the year 2050 are analyzed. The author notes that past trends resulted in a continued positive rate of population growth up to 1980. However, after 1980 only a significant increase in fertility will prevent population decline. If current fertility trends continue, the population of Proper Serbia will decline from 5.7 to 3.8 million by the year 2050. The need for effective population policies to raise fertility is stressed.
Correspondence: M. Rasevic, Institute of International Politics and Economics, POB 750, Makedonska 25, 11000 Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30265 Schmid, J. The background of fertility behaviour in Europe--new social and psychological aspects. In: Population and family in the low countries VI, edited by R. L. Cliquet, G. Dooghe, J. de Jong-Gierveld, and F. van Poppel. Vol. 18, 1989. 1-16 pp. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands; Population and Family Study Centre [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The recent European fertility decline is examined, with a focus on social, psychological, and behavioral aspects. Decision-making concerning reproductive behavior is discussed, and causes and consequences of decreased fertility are considered. These include changes in family and marriage patterns, economic conditions, wage earning, child worth, women's status, individual independence, and sexual behavior. Implications for fertility research, particularly in developed countries, are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30266 Schmid, J. The background to fertility behavior in Europe--new social and psychological aspects. [De achtergrond van het vruchtbaarheidsgedrag in Europa--nieuwe sociale en psychologische aspecten.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Dec 1988. 1-17 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut.
Changes in the factors affecting fertility and the family in Europe in the twentieth century are reviewed. Factors considered include industrialization, education, contraception, cohabitation, and individualism. The author posits that the cumulative impact of these changes has been to weaken the family and to reduce the level of fertility.
Correspondence: J. Schmid, Lehrstuhl fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Universitat Bamberg, Hornthalstrasse 2, 8600 Bamberg, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30267 Seiver, Daniel A. Seasonality of fertility: new evidence. Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 4, Summer 1989. 245-57 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper presents evidence that the seasonal pattern of American fertility applies to nonwhites as well as whites. The patterns are also changing in the same way over time: the summer trough in births is shrinking in magnitude, and the spread of airconditioning, reducing the heat of summer, can explain this shrinkage. The summer hypothesis is further buttressed by evidence, for the total population, that summer temperature extremes can explain a significant portion of the variation around the seasonal trend, in both the North and South. These temperature-induced variations appear to be offset within seven months of their occurrence."
Correspondence: D. A. Seiver, Department of Economics, Miami University, Oxford, OH 45056. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30268 Shlomowitz, Ralph. Fertility and Fiji's Indian migrants, 1879-1919. Indian Economic and Social History Review, Vol. 24, No. 2, Apr-Jun 1987. 205-13 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
Fertility trends among Indian migrants to Fiji from 1879 to 1918 are analyzed. Consideration is also given to the fertility of Indian migrants to Suriname and Mauritius.
Correspondence: R. Shlomowitz, Flinders University of South Australia, Bedford Park, SA 5042, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:30269 Shulman, Holly B. Investigating lunar cycles in monthly fertility rates. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 471-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"We have attempted to simultaneously model and estimate a deterministic lunar effect in conjunction with a model for monthly general fertility rates....Despite numerous approaches to parameterization of a lunar component, no significant effect was found. Several intrinsic shortcomings of the data may make detection extremely difficult anyway. Hence, there is no need to include a lunar effect in the model for the monthly fertility rates."
Correspondence: H. B. Shulman, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30270 Siu, Yat-ming. Family structure, marriage and fertility in Hong Kong: demographic effects of the changing Chinese family. Pub. Order No. DA8907145. 1988. 200 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The relationship between family structure and fertility is studied using a model that emphasizes the temporal correspondence among variables. It "is tested under two specific conditions: the early post-nuptial period for women aged 21-45 and cumulative experience for women aged 35 to 45....[Findings indicate that] women who lived in extended households had a faster pace of early fertility, and higher cumulative fertility than women in [a] nuclear residence. Age at marriage played an important role in mediating the pronatal effect of the extended family." Data are from 1967 and 1972 Hong Kong family planning surveys.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(12).

55:30271 Smith, R. M. Transactional analysis and the measurement of institutional determinants of fertility: a comparison of communities in present-day Bangladesh and pre-industrial England. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 215-41 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The focus of this paper is influenced, indeed largely determined, by the work that Mead Cain has recently undertaken on 'institutional determinants' of fertility in village-focused research in Bangladesh and India....My own research relates to village-focused economic and demographic analysis of certain pre-industrial English communities....Both display 'natural fertility', for in neither situation is there much evidence to suggest significant amounts of parity-dependent fertility control. Nonetheless, total fertility levels in the two contexts are very different--a difference determined very largely by the age and incidence of marriage....It is a consideration of the institutional forms that relate to certain of these differences which forms the focus of this chapter." Institutions are defined here as "'rules that govern social interaction'...or structures within which social and economic intercourse occur."
For the article by Mead Cain, published in 1983, see 52:30794.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30272 Sugareva, Marta. Natality: status and prospects. [Razhdaemost--sastoyanie i perspektivi.] Naselenie, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1988. 28-34 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Causes and consequences of the current fertility decline in the Lovech area of Bulgaria are examined. Demographic aging of the population and decreased average family size are noted as factors precipitating this decline. The need for implementation of a pronatalist policy is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30273 Sun, Te-Hsiung; Ting, Tin-Yu. Innovation-diffusion or adjustment: the case of Taiwanese fertility transition. Journal of Population Studies, No. 12, Jun 1989. 67-89 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng. with sum. in Chi.
"This paper examines two competing perspectives in demographic transition theory and uses Taiwan as the case for analysis. Five KAP surveys of Taiwanese women's fertility behavior from 1965 to 1980 are adopted in this analysis. Both cross-sectional and pooled-time series analyses are presented to determine the impact of these two perspectives in the process of Taiwanese fertility transition. Findings suggest that both innovation-diffusion and adjustment models were important in explaining this fertility transition. Innovation-diffusion seemed to play a more important role in the early years whereas adjustment showed increasingly significant influence toward the end of the period."
Correspondence: T.-H. Sun, Research, Development, and Evaluation Commission, Executive Yuan, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30274 Tabah, Leon. Modernization and fertility decline in Asia. [Modernisation et baisse de la fecondite en Asie.] Population et Societes, No. 235, May 1989. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent fertility trends in Asia are reviewed. The emphasis is on the relationship between the demographic transition and successful economic development.
Correspondence: INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30275 Teachman, Jay D.; Schollaert, Paul T. Gender of children and birth timing. Demography, Vol. 26, No. 3, Aug 1989. 411-23 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"We address the impact of the gender of children on birth timing [in the United States]. Our findings suggest that a preference to balance the gender of children affects the timing of births, not a preference for either sons or daughters. At parity 2, women with children of the same sex time a third birth more rapidly than women with a boy and girl. At parity 1, women with a boy time second births more rapidly than women with a girl. This seemingly anomalous finding is explained, however, by the fact that women with boys are more likely than women with girls to be married at any point in time and thus less likely to have disrupted fertility careers." Data are from the 1973, 1976, and 1982 rounds of the National Survey of Family Growth.
Correspondence: J. D. Teachman, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30276 Tey, Nai Peng; Tan, Boon Ann; Tan, Poo Chang; Kwok, Kwan Kit. Direct and indirect determinants of fertility in Peninsular Malaysia. 1988. 62 pp. National Population and Family Development Board: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng.
"This paper has attempted to quantify and assess the fertility-inhibiting effects of three main intermediate variables, namely marriage, contraception and breastfeeding for the major [ethnic] subgroups of the [Malaysian] population. It also provides an update on our knowledge of the socioeconomic and demographic factors that effect fertility, and...the channels through which their effects are mediated." Data are from the 1984/85 Malaysian Population and Family Survey.
Correspondence: National Population Family Development Board, No. 22 Jalan Murai Dua, 51100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30277 Thomson, Elizabeth; McDonald, Elaine; Bumpass, Larry L. Couple (dis)agreement and baby boom fertility. CDE Working Paper, No. 88-28, Oct 1988. 23, [5] pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
The authors compare couple contraceptive use and fertility in the United States during the baby boom years and the 1970s. "We argue that...outcomes of [husband-wife] disagreement were a function of two primary features of the contraceptive regime--the behavioral status quo and wives' contraceptive autonomy. The contraceptive regime of the Baby Boom years differed in these two respects from that of the 1970s; many married couples did not use regular, effective contraception, and available methods required couple cooperation for effective use. Under this regime, we hypothesize that fertility disagreement should have had relatively pronatal effects, with wives' and husbands' desires equally likely to prevail. Using couple data from three waves of the Princeton Fertility Surveys, we find that disagreeing couples were as likely as couples who both wanted no more children to use effective contraceptive methods, but that disagreement led to pregnancy outcomes midway between those of couples who did not and did want another child, having average rather than antinatal effects....We discuss the implications of these findings for fertility prediction and the conceptualization and measurement of unwanted fertility."
Correspondence: Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30278 Trussell, James; Vaughan, Barbara; Farid, Samir. Determinants of birth interval length. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 133-58 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The authors evaluate the determinants of birth interval length for Egyptian women using a hazard model and data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey. Variables considered include birth order, previous birth interval, maternal age, breast-feeding behavior, contraceptive use, parental educational status, and residence characteristics. Length of previous birth interval and other biological variables were found to be powerful predictors of birth intervals.
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30279 Turke, Paul W. Evolution and the demand for children. Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, No. 1, Mar 1989. 61-90, 179, 181 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"An interpretation of fertility transition is offered applying facts and theories of evolution to concepts and relationships in the literature on fertility determinants. The discussion is centered on a kin hypothesis involving five propositions....Preliminary support for the kin hypothesis is established with data from the demographic and anthropological literature." The focus of the propositions is on the effect of socioeconomic factors, particularly modernization, on childrearing costs and kinship networks. The author concludes that "as people enter modern economies, kinship networks break down, increasing the opportunity costs of rearing children, while opportunities themselves proliferate. These factors, in combination with a decrease in kin-based corporate control of resources, have been hypothesized to lead to reduced demand for children in modern societies."
Correspondence: P. W. Turke, Evolution and Human Behavior Program, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30280 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Fertility of American women: June 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-20: Population Characteristics, No. 436, May 1989. iv, 71 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Fertility trends among women in the United States in 1988 are analyzed using data from the June 1988 supplement to the Current Population Survey. The data are presented by age, birth order, marital status, labor force participation, and ethnic group. Data are also included on birth expectations.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30281 Upadhyay, R. B. Factors associated with fertility change in India (1971 to 1985) (a path-analysis model). IIPS Newsletter, Vol. 29, No. 4, Oct 1988. 1-12 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author examines the influence of socioeconomic factors on fertility in India. Seven socioeconomic variables and fertility measurements are used in a path analysis model that examines the causal factor of fertility changes for 1971, 1975, 1981, and 1985. Findings indicate that fertility decline has been most influenced by female literacy during the period 1981-1985. Data are primarily from Indian censuses.
Correspondence: International Institute for Population Sciences, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30282 van de Walle, Francine. Birth expectations in Bobo-Dioulasso. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 167-79 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author investigates some proximate determinants of birth intervals and family size expectations using data for 6,000 postpartum women living in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Factors considered include maternal age, breast-feeding, knowledge of contraceptive methods, sexual abstinence, family size expectations, and personal reasons for avoiding pregnancy.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30283 Ventura, Stephanie J. Trends and variations in first births to older women, 1970-86. Vital and Health Statistics, Series 21: Data from the National Vital Statistics System, No. 47, Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 89-1925. ISBN 0-8406-0415-7. Jun 1989. iv, 27 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"Trends and variations in first-time childbearing [in the United States] by women in their thirties and older are presented for the years 1970-86. The report focuses on the decline in childbearing by women in their twenties, particularly well-educated women, and the extent to which these women have delayed motherhood. Maternal and infant health characteristics are also discussed. The information presented is drawn from the live birth certificates of all States and the District of Columbia."
Correspondence: NCHS, 3700 East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30284 Vidal, Jolanda M. K.-T. Spanish integration in Europe: the demographic transition. [Spaniens Integration in Europa: der demographische Ubergang.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1988. 461-78 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author discusses trends in fertility and reproductive behavior during the last 30 years in Spain, with an emphasis on the impact of cultural and socioeconomic modernization. Like other Western European industrialized societies, Spain is experiencing a demographic transition, which the author examines in terms of demographic aging, mortality, life expectancy, nuptiality, women's status, and legalized abortion.
Correspondence: J. M. K.-T. Vidal, Institut fur Soziologie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitat Munchen, Konradstrasse 6, 8000 Munich 40, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30285 Vignikin, Kokou. Agricultural production and migration: the case of southeastern Togo. [Production agricole et migrations: le cas du sud-est Togo.] In: African Population Conference/Congres Africain de Population, Dakar, Senegal, November/novembre 7-12, 1988. Vol. 3, 1988. 6.1.61-76 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The impact of migration in southeastern Togo, Africa, on agricultural productivity and fertility is examined. The author makes a case for increased fertility as a means of compensating for the loss of family members due to migration from rural areas. The strategy developed by the rural household involves increasing fertility in order to provide agricultural workers. The increased family size overcomes the economic burden of providing for a larger household.
Correspondence: K. Vignikin, Unite de Recherches Demographiques, B.P. 12971, Lome, Togo. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30286 Vining, Daniel R. Below-replacement fertility in five regions of the world. Mankind Quarterly, Vol. 29, No. 3, Spring 1989. 211-20 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This study is concerned with fertility trends in developed countries. Specifically, the author presents "(1) a complete empirical treatment of below-replacement fertility in the developed world, including East Asia; and (2) the hypothesis that economic development means demographic decline. My hypothesis is that countries that become developed have below-replacement fertility."
Correspondence: D. R. Vining, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30287 Vishnevskii, A. G. Methods for the quantitative analysis of fertility. [Metody kolichestvennogo analiza rozhdaemosti.] In: Metody issledovaniya, edited by A. G. Vishnevskii. 1986. 45-78, 181-2 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses problems involved in the analysis of fertility. A system of indexes of various aspects of fertility is described that uses both real and simulated data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30288 Vlassoff, Carol. Micro-study of culture and fertility in rural Maharashtra. In: Micro-approaches to demographic research, edited by John C. Caldwell, Allan G. Hill, and Valerie J. Hull. 1988. 74-87 pp. Kegan Paul International: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"The present paper discusses the advantages of incorporating a micro-approach into larger demographic surveys, using a study conducted by the author in rural India as an illustrative case. The study examined the relationship between cultural factors and fertility and family planning among rural Indian women. The main objectives of the research were to explore the nature and degree of traditionalism among these women, and the extent to which cultural attitudes and values influenced fertility and family planning practice." Data are for the period 1975-1976.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30289 Wang, Jiansheng. A microeconomic study of fertility behavior in rural China. Pub. Order No. DA8825071. 1988. 293 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The objective of this study is to design and carry out a field survey in rural China based on the microeconomic theory of fertility and cost-benefit analysis in order to ascertain the impact of the changing economic environment on fertility determinants and desires."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at New York University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(9).

55:30290 Wilson, Chris. The proximate determinants of marital fertility in England 1600-1799. In: The world we have gained: histories of population and social structure, edited by Lloyd Bonfield, Richard M. Smith, and Keith Wrightson. 1986. 203-30 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The method of family reconstitution is used to analyze the proximate determinants of marital fertility in seventeenth- and eighteenth-century England. The data cover 16 parishes and are from reconstitutions carried out by the Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure. Consideration is given to fecundability, the postpartum non-susceptible period including breast-feeding, and other factors that, in the absence of contraception, increased the intervals between births.
Correspondence: C. Wilson, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30291 Xie, Yu. Measuring regional variation in sex preference in China: a cautionary note. Social Science Research, Vol. 18, No. 3, Sep 1989. 291-305 pp. Duluth, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This paper critically examines the issue of measuring regional variation in sex preference in China. It demonstrates that the conclusion of previous research...on this subject is largely an artifact that is due to floor and ceiling effects as well as sampling variability. This paper proposes alternative measures that are combined with statistical models. After correcting for floor and ceiling effects and considering sampling variability, it is shown that while sex preference undoubtedly exists in China, the degree of sex preference does not vary by region. Differentials are evident, however, by educational attainment and urban status."
Correspondence: Y. Xie, Center for Demography and Ecology, 1180 Observatory Drive, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:30292 Yadava, R. C.; Pandey, Arvind. On the distribution of straddling birth intervals. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-1, Jul 1987. 16 pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"Based on some simplified assumptions relating to the human reproduction process, we discuss probability models for the study of straddling birth intervals. One of the models for illustration has been applied to an observed set of data taken from a sample survey on maternity histories of women in Varanasi [India]."
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30293 Yamaguchi, Kazuo. A formal theory for male-preferring stopping rules of childbearing: sex differences in birth order and in the number of siblings. Demography, Vol. 26, No. 3, Aug 1989. 451-65 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Through mathematical deductions, this article shows certain macro-demographic consequences of individually employed male-preferring stopping rules in childbearing [for the United States]. It is shown that male-preferring stopping rules generate differences between boys and girls in birth order and in the number of siblings. Two situations are considered regarding the latent probability of having a boy: population homogeneity and population heterogeneity. The sex difference in the number of siblings exists even under population homogeneity, and the difference remains constant when each couple employs a distinct alternative rule. On the other hand, the sex difference in the birth order exists only under population heterogeneity. Substantive implications of these findings are discussed."
Correspondence: K. Yamaguchi, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30294 Yusuf, Farhat; Rukanuddin, A. R. Correlates of fertility behaviour in Pakistan. Biology and Society, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jun 1989. 61-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The present study analyses some recent data from the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS) on demographic, socioeconomic and family planning correlates of fertility in Pakistan." Average parity is taken as the dependent variable and the independent variables were studied after controlling for variations in the age distributions of women in different categories of these variables. "Finally, an attempt was made to fit a series of multiple regression models. The object was to study the effects of selected independent variables on the cumulative fertility levels in Pakistan, and separately for the rural and urban segments of the national population."
Correspondence: F. Yusuf, School of Economic and Financial Studies, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

55:30295 Bell, Martin. Spatial variations in fertility in Queensland. APRU Discussion Paper, No. 1/89, Jan 1989. v, 44 pp. University of Queensland, Department of Geographical Sciences, Applied Population Research Unit [APRU]: St. Lucia, Australia. In Eng.
Fertility differentials among the local authority areas of Queensland, Australia, are described using data from official sources. The author also attempts to identify regional empirical regularities in the age profile of fertility. Regression analysis is used to explain the observed differentials in fertility. The implications of the analysis for population forecasting are also considered. This is the first in a planned series of discussion papers.
Correspondence: APRU, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland 4067, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30296 Bondarskaya, G.; Darskii, L. Ethnic differentials in fertility in the USSR. [Etnicheskaya differentsiatsiya rozhdaemosti v SSSR.] Vestnik Statistiki, No. 12, 1988. 16-21 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Ethnic differentials in fertility in the USSR are analyzed using data from official sources. Age-specific and total fertility rates for women of various nationalities are presented by Union republic for selected years from 1945 to 1984.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30297 Boyd, Robert L. Racial differences in childlessness: a centennial review. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-13, Mar 1988. 31, [11] pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"This paper presents an overview of black-white differences in childlessness from the late 1800s to the present [in the United States]. The paper begins with a brief description of past trends and a review of the health and social factors underlying the high rates of black childlessness early in this century. This historical sketch is followed by a discussion of the racial divergence since 1940. Here it is suggested that recent trends in childlessness are largely the result of broad societal changes, including the movement to greater economic opportunity for women and blacks. Finally, the paper offers suggestions for future research."
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30298 Casterline, John B.; Eid, Ismail. Village characteristics and reproductive behaviour. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 575-607 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"In this chapter we have investigated the relationship between village characteristics and reproductive behaviour in rural Egypt....The EFS [Egyptian Fertility Survey] indicates that in rural Egypt little volitional control is exercised over fertility, and hence we have argued that, while village factors might motivate larger or smaller families, there is no reason to expect substantial fertility differentials according to type of village. Thus differentials in fertility aspirations as well as differentials in levels of contraceptive use and recent fertility have been examined. Our approach has been to first develop models of the individual-level predictors of fertility, and then to test for additional effects of village characteristics....It is clear from the findings that motivations for large and small families are influenced by features of the village setting. The emergence of non-agricultural economic opportunities and the modernization of agricultural practice were hypothesized to transform the role of children and, as a consequence, the value placed on having a large number. The results are consistent with this reasoning...."
Correspondence: J. B. Casterline, Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30299 Chamnivickorn, Suchittra. Fertility, labor supply and investment in child quality among white and Asian-American women. Pub. Order No. DA8821005. 1988. 425 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author examines differences in fertility, labor force participation, and investment in child quality among U.S. adult white women and the three largest groups of Asian-American women (Japanese, Chinese, and Filipinos). The results indicate that "the interaction between quantity and quality of children implies greater parental investments in child quality for Japanese immigrant women, less for the Chinese immigrants and least for Filipino immigrant women." Data are from the 1970 and 1980 U.S. censuses.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(8).

55:30300 Chandna, R. C.; Sharma, Dhaneshwari. Education as a determinant of fertility (a case study of Kullu town). Population Geography, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1987. 45-55 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The relationship between fertility and parents' educational status is analyzed using data for 50 percent of the females living in Kullu town, India. Findings indicate a negative correlation between fertility and the educational level of both males and females. However, the impact of female educational attainment is most influential in determining family size.
Correspondence: R. C. Chandna, Department of Geography, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30301 Clerici, Renata. Fertility, employment, and migration. Differential fertility according to migration experience using census data. [Fecondita, lavoro e migrazioni. Fecondita differenziale secondo esperienze di mobilita da dati di censimento.] Studi Emigrazione/Etudes Migrations, Vol. 26, No. 93, Mar 1989. 35-51 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Differential fertility in Italy by occupation is analyzed using census data. The author uses the own-children method to develop retrospective estimates of period fertility for women in 1976 and 1981. The occupational status categories used are "employed in the same sector, employed in a different sector, no longer employed, new employed, never employed. A strong relation appears between work status changes and fertility trends: the women who recently obtained a new job touch the lowest level of fertility, while those who left their job reach the highest level." The impact of migration and nuptiality is also considered.
Correspondence: R. Clerici, Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Largo A. Gemelli 1, 20123 Milan, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30302 Diabira, Talibe. The fertility of the young in Mauritania: an in-depth analysis of data from the National Mauritanian Fertility Survey. [Fecondite des jeunes en Mauritanie: analyses approfondies des donnees de l'Enquete Nationale Mauritanienne sur la Fecondite.] Serie Etudes et Recherches, No. 2, Sep 1988. 57 pp. Direction de la Statistique et de la Comptabilite Nationale, Centre d'Etudes Demographiques et Sociales [CEDS]: Nouakchott, Mauritania. In Fre.
Fertility, particularly unwanted pregnancy, among young women in Mauritania is analyzed using data from the National Fertility Survey of 1981, which was conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey. Consideration is also given to the consequences of adolescent fertility, measures that could be adopted to reduce it, and trends in nuptiality.
Location: New York Public Library.

55:30303 Dietzenbacher, Erik. The dynamics of population growth, differential fertility, and inequality: comment. American Economic Review, Vol. 79, No. 3, Jun 1989. 584-7 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
The author critically examines an article by David Lam in which the relationship between population growth and income distribution was analyzed in an applied model that allowed for both differential fertility across income classes and intergenerational mobility. The author presents a new model and discusses its merits.
For the article by Lam, published in 1986, see 52:40350.
Correspondence: E. Dietzenbacher, Econometrics Institute, University of Groningen, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:30304 Eggebeen, David J.; Uhlenberg, Peter. Changes in the age distribution of parents, 1940-1980. Journal of Family Issues, Vol. 10, No. 2, Jun 1989. 169-88 pp. Newbury Park, California. In Eng.
The authors examine how fertility patterns of U.S. women have changed during the period 1940-1980 and "how these changes have affected the age distribution of parents for successive cohorts of children. We find that the average age of mothers and fathers has declined across cohorts of children. Part of the reason for this decline in mean ages is the precipitous decline in the proportion of black and white children who have mothers and fathers more than 35 years older than themselves. The proportion of white children born to teenage mothers changed very little during this time period. However, the likelihood of black children being born to very young mothers increased rapidly after 1960." Data are from the U.S. census.
Correspondence: D. J. Eggebeen, Department of Individual and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:30305 Garenne, Michel; van de Walle, Etienne. Polygyny and fertility among the Sereer of Senegal. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 2, Jul 1989. 267-83 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The effect of polygyny on fertility in Senegal is examined. The authors find that "although plural marriages are less fertile and the rank order of the wife has an effect, the mechanism appears to operate through the age difference of the spouses and the greater likelihood of temporary separate residence in the case of polygynous marriages. An examination of birth intervals suggests that the lower fecundity of older men, rather than a reduction of the frequency of intercourse, is the main factor. However, there is little relation between the fertility of different wives of the same polygynists." Data are from a longitudinal study conducted during the period 1963-1981.
Correspondence: M. Garenne, Office de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique Outre-Mer, BP 1386, Dakar, Senegal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30306 Haines, Michael R. Social class differentials during fertility decline: England and Wales revisited. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 2, Jul 1989. 305-23 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Differentials [in fertility] across occupational or socio-economic groups have been studied for England and Wales to examine the pace of the adoption of fertility control across groups. Occupation of husband was used to create social-class aggregates. The conclusion...that 'higher' social-class or status groups led the decline, while 'lower' social-class or status groups lagged, although not by many years, [is supported by]...a re-analysis of the 1911 Census of Marriage and Fertility of England and Wales, using alternative aggregations and other measures of socio-economic well-being."
Correspondence: M. R. Haines, Wayne State University, Department of Economics, Detroit, MI 48202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30307 Hernandez, Raul; Gonzalez, Fernando; Catasus, Sonia; Morejon, Blanca; Grove, Rosario; Farnos, Alfonso. Cuba: socioeconomic aspects of fertility differences. A case study. [Cuba: aspectos socioeconomicos de los diferenciales de la fecundidad. Un estudio de casos.] 1988. 175 pp. Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
Fertility differentials in Cuba are analyzed using data from a survey of 3,302 women aged 15-59, which included women from urban, suburban, and rural areas. Attention is paid to the impact on fertility of family characteristics, educational and cultural levels, economic activity, age at marriage, desired family size, birth spacing, and use of contraception and induced abortion.
Correspondence: CEDEM, Universidad de la Habana, Avenida 41, Numero 2003 entre 20 y 22, Playa, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30308 Herold, Joan M.; Westoff, Charles F.; Warren, Charles W.; Seltzer, Judith. Catholicism and fertility in Puerto Rico. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 79, No. 9, Sep 1989. 1,258-62 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors examine the relationship between fertility and religious association in Puerto Rico by applying Bongaarts's proximate determinants framework to data from a fertility and family planning survey conducted in 1982. The survey was a two-stage, disproportionate stratified cluster sample design that resulted in completed personal interviews with 3,175 women aged 15-49. The results show no significant difference between Catholics and non-Catholics with regard to fertility, age at first marriage, contraceptive usage, and breast-feeding.
Correspondence: J. M. Herold, Emory University, International Health Track, Division of Public Health, Woodruff Health Sciences Center, Drawer G, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:30309 Horne, A. Dale; Suchindran, Chirayath M. Maternal age at last birth and reproductive span. In: Egypt: demographic responses to modernization, edited by Awad M. Hallouda, Samir Farid, and Susan H. Cochrane. 1988. 159-75 pp. Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Variations in female age at last birth and length of reproductive span among subgroups of the Egyptian population are presented. Using data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey, the authors evaluate differences among women according to educational status, parity, status of first marriage, number of marriages, and urban or rural residence. Implications for maternal and infant health and population growth are discussed.
Correspondence: A. D. Horne, American University in Cairo, POB 2511, 113 Sharia Kasr El-Aini, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30310 India. Office of the Registrar General. Vital Statistics Division (New Delhi, India). Birth order differentials in India, 1984. [1988]. ix, 213 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
Results are presented of a special survey conducted by units of the Sample Registration System (SRS) in 1984 on differential fertility in India. Separate consideration is given to India and the major states and rural and urban areas. Differential fertility is also analyzed by age, age at marriage, religion, caste, household income, and household expenditure on food.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar General, Vital Statistics Division, West Block 1, R. K. Puram, New Delhi 110 022, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30311 Jia, Zhongke. An inquiry into causes of county-level specific fertility differences in Gansu province. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 3, 1987. 25-9 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
Fertility differentials among the 78 counties of Gansu province, China, are analyzed using data from the 1982 census. Three alternative methods of analysis are applied to the data to identify the social, political, and economic factors that affect fertility differentials. The author also notes that changes in population characteristics are associated with fertility differentials.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30312 Liao, Tim F. Immanence and transcendence: the relationship between patterns of family decision-making and fertility among Catholics and Protestants. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 88-8, Feb 1988. 16, [2] pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"[Guy E.] Swanson attributes the spread of Protestantism and the Reformation vis-a-vis the existence of Catholicism to the form of governance in the European societies....In this paper the author takes up Swanson's theoretical framework, and studies the Catholic fertility differential...in the light of this organizational/patterns of decision-making approach. It is concluded that an American woman living in a sociological setting that used to be conducive to the existence of Catholicism in the old days would have a higher fertility, regardless of being a Catholic and her marital age, though this effect of patterns of decision-making in the family would not be dependent on her religion." Data are from a 1978 survey of 650 women in Detroit, Michican.
Correspondence: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30313 McHorney, Colleen A. Too young, too soon, too fast: rapid repeat pregnancy among inner-city adolescents. Pub. Order No. DA8822561. 1988. 268 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This dissertation...studies repeat pregnancies among [U.S.] adolescents to develop and test a multidimensional model identifying sociological, psychological, cognitive, interpersonal, and behavioral antecedents of subsequent adolescent fertility." Chapters are included on the social context of adolescent pregnancy and parenthood, past conceptualizations of the determinants of adolescent fertility behavior, the development and justification of the model, and the methodological aspects of the study.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Brown University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(8).

55:30314 Mulder, Monique B. Marital status and reproductive performance in Kipsigis women: re-evaluating the polygyny-fertility hypothesis. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 2, Jul 1989. 285-304 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The effects of marital status on fertility and offspring survivorship are examined with data on six marriage cohorts of Kipsigis women, agro-pastoralists of south western Kenya. Neither marriage order, nor the average number of co-wives married to a man during a woman's reproductive years, is associated with completed family size, nor with any of the components of reproductive performance. The mechanisms whereby polygyny might potentially lower the reproductive performance of polygynously married women in the Kipsigis and other populations are discussed in some detail, with particular reference to resource shortages, sexual and economic favouritism, the observance of post partum taboos, disease, husband's age, co-wife co-operation, education, sterility, and age at menarche and marriage."
Correspondence: M. B. Mulder, University of Michigan, Evolution and Human Behavior Program, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30315 Osheba, Ibrahim K. T. Determinants of regional fertility differences in Egypt. Pub. Order No. DA8821633. 1988. 207 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This is a study of both the direct (proximate) and antecedent determinants of the difference in fertility between rural Lower and rural Upper Egypt and between urban Lower and urban Upper Egypt. Data from the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey and the 1976 population census of Egypt are utilized. The methodology used derives from the analysis of covariance, regression decomposition, and the multilevel model." Factors considered include duration of marriage, contraceptive usage, infant and child mortality rates, age at marriage, and educational status.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(8).

55:30316 Ross, G. Alexander. Delaying the fertility decline: German women in Saginaw County, Michigan, 1850-1880. Journal of Family History, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1989. 157-70 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"Using U.S. manuscript censuses from 1850 to 1880, the study examines changes in fertility of women in Saginaw County, Michigan, during the period in which the county became a major center of the lumber industry in North America. The German states were an important source of immigration to Saginaw County during this period and the paper focuses particularly on the fertility of German women in contrast to native-born women and those of other nativity. The comparison reveals that, although other groups of women exhibited a marked decline in fertility, German women sustained a high fertility level to the end of the period of study."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30317 Singh, K. P. Religion and fertility: a study in differentials. Population Geography, Vol. 10, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1988. 18-27 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
Fertility differentials among religious groups in India are examined, with a focus on minority status and on demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. The impact of these factors on acceptance of family planning programs is discussed.
Correspondence: K. P. Singh, Director of Population Research Centre, Panjab University, Chandigarh 160 014, Union Territory, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30318 Weeks, John R.; Rumbaut, Ruben G.; Brindis, Claire; Korenbrot, Carol C.; Minkler, Donald. High fertility among Indochinese refugees. Public Health Reports, Vol. 104, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1989. 143-50 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"From 1975 to 1988, nearly 900,000 Indochinese refugees were resettled in the United States. This paper examines patterns of fertility among these refugees from Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam who have exhibited high levels of reproduction since their arrival. Data are drawn from sample surveys in San Diego and San Francisco [California]. Fertility levels were found to exceed five children per ever-married woman....Fertility levels were significantly higher among rural second-wave refugees than in the more urban first-wave groups." Factors affecting fertility levels were fertility level in sending area; preference for male children; and cultural, financial, and motivational limitations to using family planning. "The data suggest that this refugee population will continue to put pressure on maternal and child health resources, and that continued residence in the United States could lead to desires to limit family size, thus increasing demand for methods of fertility control."
Correspondence: J. R. Weeks, International Population Center, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

55:30319 Ellis, Gary B. New reproductive technologies: medical and social choices. Distinguished Lectures in the Social Sciences, Nov 1988. 14 pp. Northern Illinois University, Social Science Research Institute: De Kalb, Illinois. In Eng.
The author discusses trends in infertility in the United States, with a focus on the size of the affected population, the scope of childlessness, and the personal and societal problems created by it. Possible causes of infertility are examined, and diagnostic and treatment possibilities, including future reproductive technologies, are discussed. The author also addresses some ethical issues raised by the new technologies.
Correspondence: Social Science Research Institute, Northern Illinois University, De Kalb, IL 60115. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30320 Murthy, G. V. S.; Kapoor, S. K.; Reddaiah, V. P.; Nath, L. M. A study on pregnancy wastage in rural area of Haryana. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 10, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1987. 26-34 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
Pregnancies occurring in a rural Indian village from June 1983 to May 1984 are analyzed according to spontaneous or induced abortion, fetal death, live birth, birth order, and maternal parity. Other factors considered that affect pregnancy outcomes are socioeconomic status, caste, and maternal age.
Correspondence: G. V. S. Murthy, Centre for Community Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi 110 029, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

55:30321 Alauddin, M.; VanLandingham, Mark. Young, low-parity women: critical target group for family planning in Bangladesh. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, Mar 1989. 49-58 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The authors examine the need to target young, low-parity women for family planning services in Bangladesh. Although contraceptive prevalence rates have slowly increased in recent years, the highest fertility rate is among young couples just beginning their families. Recommended interventions include "registration of couples, provision of fieldworker and supervisor training focused on this target group, and the expansion of [maternal and child health] services...." The importance of increased availability of temporary contraceptive methods, media campaigns, and promotion of breast-feeding is also noted.
Correspondence: M. Alauddin, Pathfinder Fund, G.P.O. 2721, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30322 Alvarez Vazquez, Luisa; Catasus Cervera, Sonia. A survey on fertility and the prevalence of contraceptive methods: Las Tunas, 1985. General information. [Encuesta de fecundidad y prevalencia de metodos anticonceptivos: Las Tunas, 1985. Informe general.] 1988. 57, [20] pp. Universidad de la Habana, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
These are the results of a 1985 survey on fertility and contraceptive prevalence in the Cuban province of Las Tunas. The survey included 891 urban and 649 rural households; a total of 1,574 women aged 13-44 were interviewed. Characteristics analyzed included age, marital status, educational status, occupation, and ideal age at marriage. A chapter on reproductive characteristics examines contraceptive methods chosen, age-specific fertility, geographic differences in fertility, and characteristics of heads of households.
Correspondence: CEDEM, Universidad de la Habana, Avenida 41, Numero 2003 entre 20 y 22, Playa, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30323 Askew, Ian. Organizing community participation in family planning projects in South Asia. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 20, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1989. 185-202 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper presents the findings from a compar