55:30084 Dokoupil,
Lumir. Population of the industrial region of Ostrava up
to the census of 1869. [Obyvatelstvo Ostravske prumyslove oblasti
do scitani 1869.] Spisy Pedagogicke Fakulty v Ostrave/Papers of the
Pedagogical Faculty in Ostrava, No. 57, 1986. 132 pp. Statni
Pedagogicke Nakladatelstvi: Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum.
in Eng; Ger; Rus.
Population dynamics in the Ostrava region of what
is now Czechoslovakia from the 1760s to 1869 are analyzed. It is noted
that this period was one of early industrialization, due to the
exploitation of the region's coal resources. The study shows the
importance of in-migration to industrial centers, the existence of
regional differences in fertility, and the growth of an urban
proletariat.
Correspondence: Statni Pedagogicke
Nakladatelstvi, Ostrovni 30, 11302 Prague 1, Czechoslovakia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30085 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). A century
of population growth: from the first census of the United States to
the twelfth, 1790-1900. ISBN 0-8063-0332-8. LC 67-25405. 1989. 303
pp. Genealogical Publishing: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This is a
reprint of a volume originally published in 1909, which presents
analyses of data from the first 12 censuses of the United States. The
major topics covered include the population prior to 1790; the
distribution of the population in the various states and territories,
1790 and after; the population in the counties and subdivisions; the
white and black population; sex and age of the population; the family
in 1790; distribution of surnames in 1790; nationalities of the heads
of families; nationalities of the foreign-born population at different
times between 1790 and 1900; and interstate migration, involving an
analysis of population by place of residence and
birth.
Correspondence: Genealogical Publishing, 1001 North
Calvert Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:30086 United
Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New
York, New York). World population prospects, 1988.
Population Studies, No. 106; ST/ESA/SER.A/106, Pub. Order No.
E.88.XIII.7. ISBN 92-1-151172-0. 1989. xii, 579 pp. New York, New York.
In Eng.
Population estimates and projections up to the year 2025
are presented for the world, its more-developed and less-developed
regions, 7 major areas, 22 regions, and 210 countries and areas. Data
are from the eleventh round of the global demographic estimates and
projections undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat. The estimates and
projections are provided for each quinquennial year or period from
1950-2025. Four variants of the projections are included, based on
four alternative hypotheses concerning fertility. A description of the
methods, data, assumptions, and major findings is included in the first
two chapters.
Correspondence: Department of International
Economic and Social Affiars, United Nations, New York, NY 10017.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30087 Biswas,
Suddhendu; Ebraheem, Nather A. Method of stochastic
prediction of population estimates based on Kendall's birth and death
process. International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 20, No. 2,
1989. 323-9 pp. Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
"An attempt has been
made to incorporate density and time-dependent birth and death rates
into the generalized birth and death process given by Kendall (1948).
The probability generating function of the process has also been
investigated. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the
process has been illustrated in the text. The applicability of the
method for predicting the population of India, starting from the
several deterministic projection figures given for any base year, is
also discussed in the text."
Correspondence: S. Biswas,
Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110
007, India. Location: Princeton University Library (ST).
55:30088 China
(Taiwan). Executive Yuan. Council for Economic Planning and
Development. Manpower Planning Department (Taipei, Taiwan).
Projections of the population of the Taiwan area, Republic of
China, 1986-2011. Jan 1988. iv, 68 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng;
Chi.
Population projections are provided for Taiwan up to the year
2011 using the mid-year 1986 population as a base. High, medium, and
low projections are included. The projections include age
distributions by three broad age groups.
Location:
East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.
55:30089 del Hoyo
Bernat, Juan; Garcia Ferrer, Antonio. An analysis and
forecast of the Spanish population (1910-2000). [Analisis y
prediccion de la poblacion espanola (1910-2000).] Coleccion Estudios,
No. 5, ISBN 84-404-2686-1. 1988. 308 pp. Fundacion de Estudios de
Economia Aplicada [FEDEA]: Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The primary
objective of this work is to estimate the probable development of
Spain's population by age for the period 1980-2000, with particular
reference to developments in the labor force. The relationship between
economic and population growth is first considered. Next, alternative
methods for making population projections are considered. The authors
then examine population trends in Spain from 1900 to 1980 in order to
establish a framework for the forecasts that are presented up to the
year 2000. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence:
FEDEA, Jorge Juan 46, Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:30090 Finland.
Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projection
by municipalities, 1988-2010. [Vaestoennuste kunnittain,
1988-2010/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis, 1988-2010.]
Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1989, No. 3, ISBN 951-47-2763-0. 1989. 128
pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Two
alternative population projections are presented for Finland up the
year 2010, one including and one excluding migration. The projections
are given for the whole country, municipalities, provinces, and
regional planning areas and by single year of age and sex for
provinces.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101,
Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
55:30091
Matthiessen, Poul C. Society, the aging
population--fertility trends and the field of education.
[Samfundet, der aeldes--fodselsudviklingen og uddannelsessektoren.]
Uddannelse, Vol. 21, No. 9, Nov 1988. 495-504 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark.
In Dan.
The author describes demographic changes in Denmark for the
period 1988-2020, with a focus on the consequences these changes will
have in the field of education. He discusses declining fertility,
changing attitudes, increased age of the working population, new
demands on the workforce from expanding industry, and the need for
ongoing training and education. Projections are based on official data
for 1988.
Correspondence: P. C. Matthiessen, Department of
Demography, Copenhagen University, Frue Plads, 1168 Copenhagen K,
Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30092 McNown,
Robert; Rogers, Andrei. Forecasting mortality: a
parameterized time series approach. Population Program Working
Paper, No. WP-88-10, Nov 1988. 43 pp. University of Colorado, Institute
of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper outlines a forecasting strategy that involves the
integration of...[several] traditionally independent approaches to
demographic forecasting: time series methods, demographic accounting,
and explanatory models....It demonstrates the feasibility and accuracy
of the forecasting methodology and indicates how one can extend this
approach to forecasts of mortality by cause. It describes
mathematically the age- and sex-specific structure of mortality, and
the evolution of this structure over time, through the estimation of
parameterized mortality schedules. A major component of this
descriptive analysis is the fitting of parameterized mortality
schedules to historical data, providing a structure to the data,
permitting a relatively concise representation of mortality by age and
sex, and enabling one to compare the structure of mortality at
different points in time." The geographical focus is on the United
States.
Correspondence: Population Program, Institute of
Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30093
Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling
Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population
projections for the Netherlands, 1988-2050. [Bevolkingsprognose
voor Nederland, 1988-2050.] 1989. 69 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
with sum. in Eng.
Population projections for the Netherlands up to
2050 are presented, along with a description of the methodology
employed to prepare them. The projections are presented by sex and
marital status for each year up to 1995 and then for 10-year intervals
from the year 2000.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de
Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30094 Pandjaitan,
Sahala. A review of population projections and the family
planning program in Indonesia 1980-2000 (by the new component method).
Second edition. Part 1. Technical Report Series Monograph, No.
52A, 1987. v, 20 pp. National Family Planning Coordinating Board,
Center for Information and Documentation: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
These are projections of the Indonesian population up to the year
2000, produced using the component projection method with data from the
1985 Intercensal Survey (SUPAS). This second edition is the same as
the first but with errors corrected. The projections include eligible
couples; family planning users; birth, fertility, and gross
reproduction rates; child-woman ratio; death and infant mortality
rates; and dependency ratio.
This was translated from the Indonesian
by Charles Lerman.
Location: East-West Population
Institute, Honolulu, HI.
55:30095 Puerto
Rico. Junta de Planificacion. Area de Planificacion Economica y Social.
Negociado de Analisis Social y Programacion de Recursos (San Juan,
Puerto Rico). Population projections by age, sex, and
municipality: Puerto Rico 1980-2005. [Proyecciones de poblacion
por edad, sexo y municipio: Puerto Rico 1980-2005.] Jun 1986. v, 96, 7
pp. San Juan, Puerto Rico. In Spa.
Population projections for the
period 1980-2005 are presented for Puerto Rico by age, sex, and
municipality. The projections are based on data from the 1980
census.
Correspondence: Junta de Planificacion, Division de
Presupuesto y Finanzas, Centro Gubernamental Minillas, Edificio Norte,
Piso 12, Apartado 41119, Santurce, Puerto Rico 00942-9985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30096 Rogers,
Andrei; Woodward, Jennifer. Multiregional projections of
the U.S. population: 1980-2080. Population Program Working Paper,
No. WP-88-5, Jun 1988. 56 pp. University of Colorado, Institute of
Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper reports our current progress in developing a detailed
multiregional population projection model that will simultaneously
forecast the populations of the 50 U.S. states and the District of
Columbia. A preliminary constant-coefficient projection has been
carried out, but it ignores international migration....[Since] data on
international migration are inadequate and inaccurate...our efforts
have turned to improving the quality of such data by means of indirect
estimation...." Comparisons with other published projections are also
included.
Correspondence: Population Program, Institute of
Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30097 Rogers,
Andrei. Parameterized multistate forecasting models of
population dynamics: a time series approach. Population Program
Working Paper, No. WP-88-8, Sep 1988. 46, [22] pp. University of
Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder,
Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper reports on the progress of efforts
over the past several years to develop a population forecasting process
that emphasizes the use of transparent multistate population projection
models which rely on parameterized model schedules for their
inputs....Time series models are used to project the evolution of the
principal parameters of such schedules, and the consequent age-specific
rates are then used to drive the population forecasting models forward
over time....The parameterized schedules condense the amount of
demographic information and express it in a language and a set of
variables that are more readily understood by the users of the
forecasts; and they make feasible a disaggregated focus on demographic
change....To demonstrate the time series forecasting methodology...a
historical time series of one component of change--mortality--is
analyzed and forecasted into the future." Data are from the United
States for the period 1900-1983.
Correspondence: Population
Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado,
Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
55:30098 Sehgal, Jag
M. An introduction to techniques of population and labour
force projections. Background Papers for Training in Population,
Human Resources and Development Planning, No. 4, ISBN 92-2-105623-6.
1986. vi, 78 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva,
Switzerland. In Eng.
"The present paper outlines various techniques
for population and labour force projections, their applications and the
data requirements. Methods for projecting at subnational levels are
also covered, including rural and urban areas." The author also
describes an IBM-compatible microcomputer-based module for making such
projections that is available from the Employment Planning and
Population Branch of ILO in Geneva.
Correspondence: ILO,
Route des Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location:
Princeton University Library (IR).
55:30099 Sutton, G.
F.; Su, T. T. Accuracy and acceptance as competing issues
in population projections in local areas. In: American Statistical
Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987].
388-92 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In
Eng.
"This paper explores some alternative allocation methods of
projecting population for small areas, differences among these
alternatives in levels of ex post predictive accuracy (using the method
of 'historical projection'), and some consideration of the relationship
of 'accuracy' to acceptability."
Correspondence: G. F.
Sutton, MISER, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30100 Wetrogan,
Signe I. Projections of the population of states by
age. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 70, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1989. 3-10 pp.
New York, New York. In Eng.
The projected size and regional
distribution of the population of the United States up to the year 2000
is reviewed based on official data.
Correspondence: S. I.
Wetrogan, Population Projections Branch, U.S. Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:30101 Willekens,
F. J.; van Poppel, F. W. A.; Keilman, N. W.; Eichperger, C. L.; Drewe,
P. MUDEA forecasts of the population of COROP areas and
the four major cities. [MUDEA-prognoses van de bevolking van de
COROP gebieden en de vier grote steden.] Dec 1988. 78 pp.
Rijksplanologische Dienst, Sociaal-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek: The
Hague, Netherlands; Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute
[NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut.
This report describes and
presents results from MUDEA-prognoses, a model for projecting
population in the Netherlands. The model takes into account regional
differences in mortality, fertility, and international and internal
migration. The projections are given for each region and major city
for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2015.
Correspondence:
Rijksplanologische Dienst, Sociaal-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Willem
Witsenplein 6, 2596 BK The Hague, Netherlands. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30102 Avramov,
Dragana. Demographic development in South European
countries: an overview. Demografska Sveska CDI, No. 8, [1987?].
21 pp. University of Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences,
Demographic Research Centre: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
Demographic trends in the southern European countries of Greece,
Portugal, Spain, and Yugoslavia and in Bulgaria are analyzed for the
period 1950-1984. Factors considered include population size and
growth, natural increase, birth rates and fertility, population age
structure, marriage patterns and nuptiality, death rates and mortality,
life expectancy, and international migration. Differences among
countries are noted. Data are from U.N. population estimates and
projections as assessed in 1984.
Correspondence:
Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, University
of Belgrade, Narodnog fronta 45, Postanski fah 927, Belgrade,
Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30103 Avramov,
Dragana. Population development in Southern Europe: an
overview. Demografska Sveska CDI, No. 9, [1986?]. 34 pp.
University of Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic
Research Centre: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
This is an overview
of population development from 1950 to 1985 in Albania, Cyprus, Greece,
Malta, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and Yugoslavia. This group of southern
European countries is distinguished demographically from western Europe
by higher rates of natural increase, fertility, and mortality and by a
younger population. Demographic trends of southern Europe indicate a
transition toward the western European model. Other factors considered
include economic development, women's labor force participation,
educational status, population size and growth, life expectancy,
urbanization, rural-urban migration, international migration, and
return migration. Differences among countries are noted. Data are
from U.N. population estimates and projections as assessed in
1984.
Correspondence: Demographic Research Centre,
Institute of Social Sciences, University of Belgrade, Narodnog fronta
45, Postanski fah 927, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30104 Bouvier,
Leon F.; Simcox, David. Population change in Meso-America:
the tip of the demographic iceberg. Population and Environment,
Vol. 10, No. 4, Summer 1989. 206-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper examines the demographic situation in Mexico and
Central America (Meso-America) and looks at the momentum for growth
implied by recent population shifts. Despite successes in reducing
fertility levels in many Meso-American countries, the dramatic declines
in mortality among infants and children have given rise to a 'death
dearth' that is contributing to a new 'baby boom' in these
countries....The impacts of such population growth on education, the
economy and migration are considered....The anticipated inability of
country economies to provide jobs for the thousands of young adults
entering the labor force in future years could result in significant
increases in the number seeking to migrate in a northerly
direction....The need for a more unified regional approach to some of
the social and economic problems facing these nations is pointed out as
is the need for a more rational immigration policy on the part of the
United States in light of the potential increase in immigration in
future years."
Correspondence: L. F. Bouvier, Department of
Sociology, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30105 Fix, Alan
G. Semai Senoi fertility and population dynamics:
two-census method. American Journal of Human Biology, Vol. 1, No.
4, 1989. 463-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The fertility and
parameters of population growth of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia are
studied by using a two-census method based on nonstable population
theory....Compared with an earlier description of the pre-1969 Semai
population, fertility has increased markedly leading to a nearly
threefold increase in the annual growth rate." Data are from two
censuses conducted among seven Semai settlements in 1969 and
1987.
Correspondence: A. G. Fix, Department of
Anthropology, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30106 Gill, Mehar
S. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.
Population Geography, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1987. 62-72 pp.
Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
Trends in population growth in rural
Punjab, India, for the years 1971-1981 are analyzed. This decade
exhibits the lowest growth rate for a rural area in the
post-Independence period. "The growth rate was characterized by wide
differentials with respect to the scheduled and non-scheduled caste
components of population, different religious communities, and various
[geographic] regions."
Correspondence: M. S. Gill,
Department of Geography, Punjabi University, Patiala 147 002, India.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30107 Keyfitz,
Nathan. The demographic discontinuity of the 1940s.
IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-87-92, Sep 1987. 27 pp. International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In
Eng.
A method for estimating the expansion of the world's
population since the 1940s is offered. The author asserts that
"nothing beyond data on age distributions at five year intervals from
1950 onwards is needed to estimate intercohort increases with small and
measurable error. A check on the process is to proceed backwards, and
apply the calculated average intercohort increases to reconstruct the
original age distributions. Intercohort increase is a net amount that
includes some decrease of mortality, especially infant mortality, and
some increase of fertility. The technique used provides new
information concerning the onset of the so-called population explosion.
For the world as a whole that onset was especially sudden because of
the coincidence of the postwar baby boom in developed countries and the
fall in mortality due to inoculation and antibiotics in the less
developed." Data are presented for continents and
countries.
Correspondence: IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg,
Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30108 Livada,
Svetozar. A contribution to the analysis of population
reproduction. [Prilog analizi reprodukcije stanovnistva.]
Sociologija Sela, Vol. 24, No. 91-94, 1986. 55-62 pp. Zagreb,
Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author critically
analyzes the population decrease in Yugoslavia, which he attributes to
a lack of demographic research and of appropriate social and population
policies in the country. Interdisciplinary study and planning for
Yugoslavia's future are stressed as means of yielding solutions to the
demographic impact of population decline.
Correspondence:
S. Livada, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Zagreb, Trg Marsala
Tita 14, POB 815, 41000 Zagreb, Yugoslavia. Location: Columbia
University Library, New York, NY.
55:30109 Nejasmic,
Ivica. Natural population change in the Croation Socialist
Republic according to type of residential settlement. [Prirodno
kretanje stanovnistva SR Hrvatske prema tipu naselja boravka.]
Sociologija Sela, Vol. 24, No. 91-94, 1986. 13-30 pp. Zagreb,
Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Demographic
characteristics of urban and rural populations in Croatia, Yugoslavia,
are compared, with a focus on trends in the fertility rate, death rate,
and natural increase during the period 1963-1984. Population decrease
is the current trend, with projections to the year 2000 indicating a
negative population growth rate for
Croatia.
Correspondence: I. Nejasmic, Statistical Office of
Croatia, Zagreb, Yugoslavia. Location: Columbia University
Library, New York, NY.
55:30110 Oweiss, I.
M. Economic analysis of population growth in the Islamic
world with special reference to Egypt. Population Sciences, Vol.
8, 1988. 59-68 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Population growth in
predominantly Islamic countries is explored, with a focus on Egypt.
The author finds that "if its current rate of increase
continues...Egypt's population will increase by an average of one and a
half million a year requiring food, housing, education, health
services, and other needs." The case is made for the immediate
implementation of an effective family planning
program.
Correspondence: I. M. Oweiss, Georgetown
University, Department of Economics, Washington, D.C. 20057.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30111 Palloni,
Alberto; Kephart, George; Millman, Sara. The sensitivity
of the natural rate of increase to changing patterns of breastfeeding
and contraception. In: American Statistical Association, 1987
proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 509-14 pp.
American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In
this paper, we estimate the parameters of a model for assessing the
potential magnitude of offsetting effects of changes in contraception
and breastfeeding on the ultimate rate of natural increase. We use data
from the World Fertility Survey for Ecuador and Peru, two Latin
American countries with the highest fertility and mortality levels in
the continent. In Section II we introduce a simple but quite general
model to represent the relations between fertility, infant mortality
and policy variables. In Section III we outline the procedures used
for the estimation of some of the parameters of the model and propose
an algorithm to calculate total fertility rates and infant mortality
rates that are consistent with those parameters. Finally, in Section
IV we examine the results obtained for Ecuador and
Peru."
Correspondence: A. Palloni, Center for Demography
and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:30112 Starsinic,
Donald E.; Forstall, Richard L. Patterns of metropolitan
area and county population growth: 1980-1987. Current Population
Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1039,
Jun 1989. v, 137 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"This report contains population estimates for July 1, 1987,
revised estimates for July 1, 1986, and components of population change
from 1980 to 1987 for individual metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's)
and their component counties....The report also contains census counts
for April 1, 1980, annual summary estimates since 1980 for the
metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population by State, a discussion of
trends since 1980, and comparisons with the 1970's and 1960's. It also
shows 1986 population estimates for MSA central cities. Summaries for
the United States, regions, divisions, and States are presented for the
1987 population inside and outside metropolitan areas and for the 1986
population inside and outside central cities. Selected tables also
include data for groupings of metropolitan areas, such as the
Northeastern Megalopolis, for cities of 100,000 and over, and for
counties."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
