55:20705 Arjas,
Elja; Kangas, Pekka. A discrete time method for the
analysis of event histories. Stockholm Research Reports in
Demography, No. 49, ISBN 91-7820-036-9. Sep 1988. 18 pp. University of
Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The
paper discusses the application of discrete time regression models to
demographic life history data. General conditions are stated under
which the likelihood expression obtains a simple Bernoulli product
form. As an illustration, such a model with a logistic link function
is fitted to Swedish third births data, earlier studied by B. and J.
Hoem. We also discuss briefly aspects relating to computation and the
necessary software."
For the study by Hoem and Hoem, published in
1987, see 53:20322.
Correspondence: University of
Stockholm, Section of Demography, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20706
Balakrishnan, T. R.; Rao, K. Vaninadha; Krotki, Karol J.;
Lapierre-Adamcyk, Evelyne. Parametric versus Cox's model:
an illustrative analysis of divorce in Canada. Janasamkhya, Vol.
6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 13-27 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This
paper focuses on parametric failure time models for event history
analysis such as Weibull, lognormal, loglogistic, and exponential
models. Also we test the goodness of fit of these parametric models
versus the Cox's proportional hazards model taking [the] Kaplan-Meier
estimate as base. As an illustration, we reanalyze the [1984] Canadian
Fertility Survey data on first marriage dissolution with parametric
models."
Correspondence: T. R. Balakrishnan, University of
Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20707 Balicki,
Andrzej. Non-parametric estimation of the wastage pattern
using census data. [Nieparametryczne szacowanie probabilistycznego
modelu procesu plynnosci kadr przy uzyciu danych spisowych.] Studia
Demograficzne, No. 4/94, 1988. 17-31 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.
"This paper is a presentation of methods of
estimation of probabilistic functions of [a] labour wastage process
model, based on three rates, which one can calculate from census data.
These are: central wastage rate, transition wastage rate and wastage
rate by cohort." These methods of estimation are illustrated using
some 1980 data for a firm in Poland.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:20708 Barkalov,
N. B. Interpolation of demographic data using rational
spline functions. [Interpolyatsiya demograficheskikh dannykh
ratsional'nymi splain-funktsiyami.] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya,
1988. 44-64 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The author describes the use
of symmetrical national spline functions for the interpolation of age
coefficients and of numbers surviving, as well as for the construction
of a full life table based on average age
coefficients.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20709
Bhattacharya, B. N.; Pandey, C. M.; Singh, K. K.
Model for interlive birth interval and some social factors.
Janasamkhya, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 57-77 pp. Kariavattom, India. In
Eng.
"This paper presents a probability model for inter-live birth
intervals which is applicable in situations where practice of
abstinence following a child birth and taboos regulating coital
frequency during the early part of interval are widespread. A
procedure to obtain the estimates of the parameters is also given."
The model is tested using data collected in 1978 in the Rural
Development and Population Growth sample survey carried out in
Varanasi, India.
Correspondence: B. N. Bhattacharya,
Population Studies Unit, Indian Statistical Unit, 203 Barrackpore Trunk
Road, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:20710 Creedy,
J. Demographic effects and aggregation in a life cycle
model. Metroeconomica, Vol. 39, No. 1, Feb 1988. 67-81 pp.
Bologna, Italy. In Eng.
The purpose of this paper is to examine
"how the changing distribution of household size with age, and the
changing distribution of income with age, can be integrated into a
simple life cycle model....The results are useful for the examination
of changes in consumption/income ratios over time, and for comparisons
among countries. Furthermore, the aggregate consumption functions
generally used in applied work do not allow discrimination among
alternative theories, and the present approach offers some potential
for more extensive tests of the basic life cycle
hypothesis."
Correspondence: J. Creedy, University of
Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia. Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
55:20711 Dash, A.
T.; Cressman, R. Polygamy in human and animal
species. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 88, No. 1, Mar 1988. 49-66
pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"An age-structured discrete-time
population model is developed that includes sex-dependent survival and
fertility rates. Polygamous as well as monogamous mating systems are
considered. If adult survival rates are sex independent, it is shown
that optimum species growth is attained when the sex ratio at maturity
balances the degree of polygamy of the species. Furthermore, if a
positive equilibrium occurs when growth rates are density dependent,
then stability criteria are established using either Perron-Frobenius
theory for non-negative Leslie-like matrices or the Gershgorin Disc
Theorem in more general settings."
Correspondence: A. T.
Dash, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph,
Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (SM).
55:20712 Figueroa,
Ana B. C. de. Demographic analysis as a methodological
resource for the study and development of long-distance educational
systems in Latin America. [El analisis demografico como recurso
metodologico para el estudio y desarrollo de los sistemas de educacion
a distancia en America Latina.] Revista de Tecnologia Educativa, Vol.
10, No. 4, 1988. 293-300 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
The author
first discusses the concept of long-distance education, a system that
involves provision of education to those who, because of age,
employment, or geographic location, do not have access to the regular
educational system. She then demonstrates how demographic analytical
methods can be used to develop such educational services and what has
been achieved in this area in Latin America since
1984.
Correspondence: A. B. C. de Figueroa, Direccion de
Planificacion Estrategica y Evaluacion Institucional, Universidad
Nacional Abierta de Venezuela, Apdo 2096, Caracas 1010, Venezuela.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20713 Gillen,
William; Guccione, Antonio. Simon's model of rural-urban
migration: a proof of Johansen's conjecture. Regional Science and
Urban Economics, Vol. 18, No. 3, Aug 1988. 447-50 pp. Amsterdam,
Netherlands. In Eng.
"In Simon's 1947 model, rankings of industries
by income elasticities and by technologically induced changes in input
quantities were proven identical. Johansen's conjecture that this does
not extend to more than two sectors is confirmed by
counter-example."
For the article by H. A. Simon, published in 1947,
see 13:1627.
Correspondence: W. Gillen, University of
Windsor, Windsor, Ontario N9B 3P4, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
55:20714 Golbeck,
Amanda L. Parity progression in the presence of fetal
death: transforming central rates into probabilities.
Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 88, No. 1, Mar 1988. 85-105 pp. New
York, New York. In Eng.
"A demographic stochastic fertility model
is presented that considers as events two types of outcomes of twenty
weeks or more of pregnancy: fetal death and live birth. Intensity
functions for these events are a function of the woman's age, her
parity, and whether or not she has had any fetal deaths within the
parity." Formulas are written for various probabilities concerning
live births and fetal deaths and are illustrated using 1980 U.S. census
data for the white female population of
Minnesota.
Correspondence: A. L. Golbeck, Department of
Mathematical Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA
92182. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
55:20715 Hsieh, John
J. An age- and time-dependent birth-death process.
In: American Statistical Association, 1986 proceedings of the Social
Statistics Section. [1986]. 406-10 pp. American Statistical
Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this article, a general
age- and time-dependent birth-death process is developed for deriving
the probability of a cohort surviving from birth during a calendar time
period to a given future time point and the probability of surviving
from one age group to another older age group as well as for deriving
the expected population size at a given time
point."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto,
Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
55:20716 Martin,
David. Mapping population data from zone centroid
locations. Institute of British Geographers: Transactions, Vol.
14, No. 1, 1989. 90-7 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author
describes the difficulties associated with the use of maps to represent
census data. "A review of the problems associated with population
mapping is followed by a discussion of [an alternative method known as]
a raster method for handling census data, based on population-weighted
centroids, and its implications for GIS "[geographic information
systems]." The geographical scope is worldwide, with an example
provided using data for Wales.
Correspondence: D. Martin,
Department of Town Planning, University of Wales, PO Box 906, Cardiff
CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
55:20717 Micheli,
Giuseppe A. Post-transitional cycles and prey-predator
models. [Cycles post-transitionnels et modeles proie-predateur.]
Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 17, No. 2, Autumn 1988. 153-73
pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper
investigates the logical consistency of the mathematical models used in
the analysis of fertility fluctuations since the end of [the]
demographic transition. Two main families of models may be
distinguished: those related to demographic 'cinematics', including
the well known Easterlin model; and those related to the 'dynamics' of
the reproduction system, among which Volterra's prey-predator model
takes a particular place. The possibilities of operationalizing the
latter model are also discussed."
Correspondence: G. A.
Micheli, Universita degli Studi, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo,
Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20718 Mitra,
S. A generalized stable model with fluctuating vital
rates. Janasamkhya, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 1-11 pp. Kariavattom,
India. In Eng.
The author attempts to show that the mathematical
principles of a stable population model can be adapted to certain
situations in which net maternity rates do not remain invariant, but
vary according to certain prescribed rules. Examples of observed and
projected net reproduction rates for Hungary, Chile, the United States,
and Portugal are presented.
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory
University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:20719 Paszek,
Barbara. Competing risks alternative. [Alternatywa
ryzyk konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/94, 1988. 33-40 pp.
Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author proposes
a model using a competing risks alternative and compares it to Chiang's
model that functions on the assumption that the conjunction of studied
risks operates. The model is illustrated using California life table
data for 1969 concerning marital status and female
deaths.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20720
Praestgaard, Jens. Nonparametric estimators of
actuarial values. Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics Working
Paper, No. 80, Jan 1989. 30 pp. University of Copenhagen, Laboratory of
Actuarial Mathematics: Copenhagen, Denmark. In Eng.
A nonparametric
mathematical model designed to estimate actuarial values is presented.
"As an example, a disability annuity and a death benefit insurance are
considered, and asymptotic confidence bands of the estimated actuarial
values are derived."
Correspondence: Laboratory of
Actuarial Mathematics, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5,
DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:20721 Singh, U.
P.; Singh, V. K.; Singh, O. P. A parity dependent model
for the most recent birth interval. Canadian Studies in
Population, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1988. 25-36 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
"This paper presents probability models for the
most recent birth interval (the interval between last and last-but-one
birth prior to survey date) under some simplified assumptions about
different factors affecting its distribution." The model is applied to
Indian data from the 1969-70 Demographic Survey of Varanasi (Rural) for
birth intervals regardless of parity.
Correspondence: U. P.
Singh, University of Gorakhpur, Gorakhpur 273 001, UP, India.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20722 van Tonder,
J. L. The PROJUSE simulation model for determining
family-planning objectives. Southern African Journal of
Demography/Suidelike Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Demografie, Vol. 1, No. 1,
Jul 1987. 43-6 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
This is a report
on a theoretical model called PROJUSE, which was designed "to determine
whether the proposed reduction in the growth rate of the South African
population is a viable proposition." The model calculates the number
of users of a family planning program needed to achieve certain
population targets. An example is demonstrated using the black
population in South Africa.
Correspondence: J. L. van
Tonder, ISODEM, Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South
Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20723 Vano,
Boris. A microsimulation model of the population and of
households. [Mikrosimulacny model vyvoja obyvatelstva a
domacnosti.] Demografie, Vol. 30, No. 4, 1988. 299-304 pp. Prague,
Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The microsimulation
model DEMOD is used to develop a profile of households in
Czechoslovakia. Marriage, divorce, birth, death, and migration are
first modeled and then analyzed for their impact on the present and
future structure of households and the
population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:20724 Vlad,
Marcel O. The optimal sex ratio for age-structured
populations. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 93, No. 2, Apr 1989.
181-90 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A new nonlinear
age-dependent model for age-structured sexual populations is
introduced, based on two assumptions: (1) the birth function depends
on the ages of the two parents; and (2) the death functions of the two
sexes are composed of two types of additive terms depending on age and
sex and on time evolution of population densities, respectively.
Formal arguments are given that suggest that time-persistent age
profiles may exist and that the intrinsic rate of growth for the two
sexes is the same. If the ratio between the number of newborn females
and the number of newborn males is equal to the square root of the
ratio of the corresponding per capita birth rates, then the intrinsic
rate of growth has an optimal value. The optimal sex ratio for the
whole population is equal to the reciprocal value of the sex ratio at
birth."
Correspondence: M. O. Vlad, Casuta Postala 77-49,
CM Bucharest, Romania. Location: Princeton University Library
(SM).
55:20725 Weinstock,
Evelyn; Rorres, Chris. Local stability of an
age-structured population with density-dependent fertility and
mortality. SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, Vol. 47, No. 3,
Jun 1987. 589-604 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"The
local stability of an equilibrium population configuration of a
nonlinear, continuous, age-structured model with fertility and
mortality dependent on total population size is investigated. Two
demographic parameters, the marginal birth and death rates, which
measure the sensitivities of the fertility and mortality of the
equilibrium population configuration to changes in population size, are
introduced. It is shown that in certain cases the values of these two
parameters completely determine the stability classification, while in
other cases further information is required. Examples illustrating
these results are presented."
Correspondence: E. Weinstock,
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University,
Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University
Library (ST).
