Volume 55 - Number 2 - Summer 1989

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

55:20705 Arjas, Elja; Kangas, Pekka. A discrete time method for the analysis of event histories. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 49, ISBN 91-7820-036-9. Sep 1988. 18 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The paper discusses the application of discrete time regression models to demographic life history data. General conditions are stated under which the likelihood expression obtains a simple Bernoulli product form. As an illustration, such a model with a logistic link function is fitted to Swedish third births data, earlier studied by B. and J. Hoem. We also discuss briefly aspects relating to computation and the necessary software."
For the study by Hoem and Hoem, published in 1987, see 53:20322.
Correspondence: University of Stockholm, Section of Demography, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20706 Balakrishnan, T. R.; Rao, K. Vaninadha; Krotki, Karol J.; Lapierre-Adamcyk, Evelyne. Parametric versus Cox's model: an illustrative analysis of divorce in Canada. Janasamkhya, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 13-27 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on parametric failure time models for event history analysis such as Weibull, lognormal, loglogistic, and exponential models. Also we test the goodness of fit of these parametric models versus the Cox's proportional hazards model taking [the] Kaplan-Meier estimate as base. As an illustration, we reanalyze the [1984] Canadian Fertility Survey data on first marriage dissolution with parametric models."
Correspondence: T. R. Balakrishnan, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20707 Balicki, Andrzej. Non-parametric estimation of the wastage pattern using census data. [Nieparametryczne szacowanie probabilistycznego modelu procesu plynnosci kadr przy uzyciu danych spisowych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/94, 1988. 17-31 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"This paper is a presentation of methods of estimation of probabilistic functions of [a] labour wastage process model, based on three rates, which one can calculate from census data. These are: central wastage rate, transition wastage rate and wastage rate by cohort." These methods of estimation are illustrated using some 1980 data for a firm in Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20708 Barkalov, N. B. Interpolation of demographic data using rational spline functions. [Interpolyatsiya demograficheskikh dannykh ratsional'nymi splain-funktsiyami.] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya, 1988. 44-64 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The author describes the use of symmetrical national spline functions for the interpolation of age coefficients and of numbers surviving, as well as for the construction of a full life table based on average age coefficients.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20709 Bhattacharya, B. N.; Pandey, C. M.; Singh, K. K. Model for interlive birth interval and some social factors. Janasamkhya, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 57-77 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"This paper presents a probability model for inter-live birth intervals which is applicable in situations where practice of abstinence following a child birth and taboos regulating coital frequency during the early part of interval are widespread. A procedure to obtain the estimates of the parameters is also given." The model is tested using data collected in 1978 in the Rural Development and Population Growth sample survey carried out in Varanasi, India.
Correspondence: B. N. Bhattacharya, Population Studies Unit, Indian Statistical Unit, 203 Barrackpore Trunk Road, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20710 Creedy, J. Demographic effects and aggregation in a life cycle model. Metroeconomica, Vol. 39, No. 1, Feb 1988. 67-81 pp. Bologna, Italy. In Eng.
The purpose of this paper is to examine "how the changing distribution of household size with age, and the changing distribution of income with age, can be integrated into a simple life cycle model....The results are useful for the examination of changes in consumption/income ratios over time, and for comparisons among countries. Furthermore, the aggregate consumption functions generally used in applied work do not allow discrimination among alternative theories, and the present approach offers some potential for more extensive tests of the basic life cycle hypothesis."
Correspondence: J. Creedy, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:20711 Dash, A. T.; Cressman, R. Polygamy in human and animal species. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 88, No. 1, Mar 1988. 49-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"An age-structured discrete-time population model is developed that includes sex-dependent survival and fertility rates. Polygamous as well as monogamous mating systems are considered. If adult survival rates are sex independent, it is shown that optimum species growth is attained when the sex ratio at maturity balances the degree of polygamy of the species. Furthermore, if a positive equilibrium occurs when growth rates are density dependent, then stability criteria are established using either Perron-Frobenius theory for non-negative Leslie-like matrices or the Gershgorin Disc Theorem in more general settings."
Correspondence: A. T. Dash, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario N1G 2W1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:20712 Figueroa, Ana B. C. de. Demographic analysis as a methodological resource for the study and development of long-distance educational systems in Latin America. [El analisis demografico como recurso metodologico para el estudio y desarrollo de los sistemas de educacion a distancia en America Latina.] Revista de Tecnologia Educativa, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1988. 293-300 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
The author first discusses the concept of long-distance education, a system that involves provision of education to those who, because of age, employment, or geographic location, do not have access to the regular educational system. She then demonstrates how demographic analytical methods can be used to develop such educational services and what has been achieved in this area in Latin America since 1984.
Correspondence: A. B. C. de Figueroa, Direccion de Planificacion Estrategica y Evaluacion Institucional, Universidad Nacional Abierta de Venezuela, Apdo 2096, Caracas 1010, Venezuela. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20713 Gillen, William; Guccione, Antonio. Simon's model of rural-urban migration: a proof of Johansen's conjecture. Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol. 18, No. 3, Aug 1988. 447-50 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In Simon's 1947 model, rankings of industries by income elasticities and by technologically induced changes in input quantities were proven identical. Johansen's conjecture that this does not extend to more than two sectors is confirmed by counter-example."
For the article by H. A. Simon, published in 1947, see 13:1627.
Correspondence: W. Gillen, University of Windsor, Windsor, Ontario N9B 3P4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:20714 Golbeck, Amanda L. Parity progression in the presence of fetal death: transforming central rates into probabilities. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 88, No. 1, Mar 1988. 85-105 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A demographic stochastic fertility model is presented that considers as events two types of outcomes of twenty weeks or more of pregnancy: fetal death and live birth. Intensity functions for these events are a function of the woman's age, her parity, and whether or not she has had any fetal deaths within the parity." Formulas are written for various probabilities concerning live births and fetal deaths and are illustrated using 1980 U.S. census data for the white female population of Minnesota.
Correspondence: A. L. Golbeck, Department of Mathematical Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:20715 Hsieh, John J. An age- and time-dependent birth-death process. In: American Statistical Association, 1986 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1986]. 406-10 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this article, a general age- and time-dependent birth-death process is developed for deriving the probability of a cohort surviving from birth during a calendar time period to a given future time point and the probability of surviving from one age group to another older age group as well as for deriving the expected population size at a given time point."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20716 Martin, David. Mapping population data from zone centroid locations. Institute of British Geographers: Transactions, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1989. 90-7 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author describes the difficulties associated with the use of maps to represent census data. "A review of the problems associated with population mapping is followed by a discussion of [an alternative method known as] a raster method for handling census data, based on population-weighted centroids, and its implications for GIS "[geographic information systems]." The geographical scope is worldwide, with an example provided using data for Wales.
Correspondence: D. Martin, Department of Town Planning, University of Wales, PO Box 906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:20717 Micheli, Giuseppe A. Post-transitional cycles and prey-predator models. [Cycles post-transitionnels et modeles proie-predateur.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 17, No. 2, Autumn 1988. 153-73 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper investigates the logical consistency of the mathematical models used in the analysis of fertility fluctuations since the end of [the] demographic transition. Two main families of models may be distinguished: those related to demographic 'cinematics', including the well known Easterlin model; and those related to the 'dynamics' of the reproduction system, among which Volterra's prey-predator model takes a particular place. The possibilities of operationalizing the latter model are also discussed."
Correspondence: G. A. Micheli, Universita degli Studi, Piazza Marina 61, 90133 Palermo, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20718 Mitra, S. A generalized stable model with fluctuating vital rates. Janasamkhya, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jun 1988. 1-11 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
The author attempts to show that the mathematical principles of a stable population model can be adapted to certain situations in which net maternity rates do not remain invariant, but vary according to certain prescribed rules. Examples of observed and projected net reproduction rates for Hungary, Chile, the United States, and Portugal are presented.
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20719 Paszek, Barbara. Competing risks alternative. [Alternatywa ryzyk konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/94, 1988. 33-40 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author proposes a model using a competing risks alternative and compares it to Chiang's model that functions on the assumption that the conjunction of studied risks operates. The model is illustrated using California life table data for 1969 concerning marital status and female deaths.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20720 Praestgaard, Jens. Nonparametric estimators of actuarial values. Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics Working Paper, No. 80, Jan 1989. 30 pp. University of Copenhagen, Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics: Copenhagen, Denmark. In Eng.
A nonparametric mathematical model designed to estimate actuarial values is presented. "As an example, a disability annuity and a death benefit insurance are considered, and asymptotic confidence bands of the estimated actuarial values are derived."
Correspondence: Laboratory of Actuarial Mathematics, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, DK-2100 Copenhagen O, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20721 Singh, U. P.; Singh, V. K.; Singh, O. P. A parity dependent model for the most recent birth interval. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1988. 25-36 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper presents probability models for the most recent birth interval (the interval between last and last-but-one birth prior to survey date) under some simplified assumptions about different factors affecting its distribution." The model is applied to Indian data from the 1969-70 Demographic Survey of Varanasi (Rural) for birth intervals regardless of parity.
Correspondence: U. P. Singh, University of Gorakhpur, Gorakhpur 273 001, UP, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20722 van Tonder, J. L. The PROJUSE simulation model for determining family-planning objectives. Southern African Journal of Demography/Suidelike Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Demografie, Vol. 1, No. 1, Jul 1987. 43-6 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
This is a report on a theoretical model called PROJUSE, which was designed "to determine whether the proposed reduction in the growth rate of the South African population is a viable proposition." The model calculates the number of users of a family planning program needed to achieve certain population targets. An example is demonstrated using the black population in South Africa.
Correspondence: J. L. van Tonder, ISODEM, Human Sciences Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20723 Vano, Boris. A microsimulation model of the population and of households. [Mikrosimulacny model vyvoja obyvatelstva a domacnosti.] Demografie, Vol. 30, No. 4, 1988. 299-304 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The microsimulation model DEMOD is used to develop a profile of households in Czechoslovakia. Marriage, divorce, birth, death, and migration are first modeled and then analyzed for their impact on the present and future structure of households and the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20724 Vlad, Marcel O. The optimal sex ratio for age-structured populations. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 93, No. 2, Apr 1989. 181-90 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A new nonlinear age-dependent model for age-structured sexual populations is introduced, based on two assumptions: (1) the birth function depends on the ages of the two parents; and (2) the death functions of the two sexes are composed of two types of additive terms depending on age and sex and on time evolution of population densities, respectively. Formal arguments are given that suggest that time-persistent age profiles may exist and that the intrinsic rate of growth for the two sexes is the same. If the ratio between the number of newborn females and the number of newborn males is equal to the square root of the ratio of the corresponding per capita birth rates, then the intrinsic rate of growth has an optimal value. The optimal sex ratio for the whole population is equal to the reciprocal value of the sex ratio at birth."
Correspondence: M. O. Vlad, Casuta Postala 77-49, CM Bucharest, Romania. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:20725 Weinstock, Evelyn; Rorres, Chris. Local stability of an age-structured population with density-dependent fertility and mortality. SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, Vol. 47, No. 3, Jun 1987. 589-604 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"The local stability of an equilibrium population configuration of a nonlinear, continuous, age-structured model with fertility and mortality dependent on total population size is investigated. Two demographic parameters, the marginal birth and death rates, which measure the sensitivities of the fertility and mortality of the equilibrium population configuration to changes in population size, are introduced. It is shown that in certain cases the values of these two parameters completely determine the stability classification, while in other cases further information is required. Examples illustrating these results are presented."
Correspondence: E. Weinstock, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (ST).


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