55:10730 Bergstrom,
Theodore; Lam, David. Recovering event histories by cubic
spline interpolation. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No.
4, 1989. 327-55, 397 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
"If event history data are recorded in discrete
intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted
from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another
unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the
inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by two recent U.S.
censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems
of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to
adjust U.S. age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of
the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970
censuses."
Correspondence: T. Bergstrom, Department of
Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:10731 Hynes, M.;
Jackson, R. W. Demographics in demographic-economic
models: a note on the basic activity-commodity framework.
Environment and Planning A, Vol. 20, No. 11, Nov 1988. 1,531-45 pp.
London, England. In Eng.
The authors present a critique of an early
basic formulation for the development of demographic-economic models by
M. Madden and P. W. J. Batey in 1980. They assert that more attention
needs to be paid to the demographic components of these models and that
"distinctions between household types must be treated more adequately,
and mechanisms for changes in household type must be articulated and
refined." A reply by M. Madden (pp. 1,537-42) is included, as well as a
response by the authors (pp. 1,543-5).
Correspondence: M.
Hynes, Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH
43210-1361. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
55:10732 Inaba,
Hisashi. On the parameter estimation problems in the
multiregional demographic growth model. Jinko Mondai
Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 187, Jul 1988. 29-45 pp.
Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"In this paper, we
critically prove the formulas of Ledent-Rogers-Willekens....Our
procedure does not depend on multi-regional life table technique but on
direct discretization of the continuous-time model. Here our main
purpose is not to provide new results but to clear the conditions under
which these methods for estimating the parameters can be applied.
Finally, we give another method of calculation of parameters, which
makes it possible to do a consistent disaggregated projection when we
have already had an aggregated population
projection."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:10733 Klingberg,
Lars. Bartlett-type correction terms for tests in
intensity regression models. Stockholm Research Reports in
Demography, No. 48, ISBN 91-7820-035-0. Nov 1988. 40, 6 pp. University
of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
This paper is concerned with appropriate correction terms for tests
in intensity regression models. The focus is on their application to
the analysis of life history data in Sweden, and particularly to the
analysis of data on fertility. "The study indicates that the Bartlett
corrected test tends to be too conservative, and that the use of
parameter estimates instead of the true parameter values in the
correction formula makes the test even more conservative....We discuss
the choice of degrees of freedom for likelihood ratio tests for data
sets with practically empty cells. For these cases, we suggest a very
careful use of a chi-square statistic with a decreased number of
degrees of freedom."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
55:10734 Kucera,
Tomas. Quotients, rates and disturbing events in
demography. Acta Universitatis Carolinae: Geographica, Vol. 21,
No. 2, 1986. 87-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Eng. with sum. in
Cze.
Using a cohort analysis of migration and mortality as an
example, the author argues for a refining of quotients and rates in
demographic analysis. A new formula is presented for improving
estimations of such phenomena in future
populations.
Correspondence: T. Kucera, Czechoslovak
Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography, Mendlovo nam. 1, 662 82
Brno, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library
(FST).
55:10735 Rundell,
William. Determining the birth function for an age
structured population. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1,
No. 4, 1989. 377-95, 397 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper deals with an inverse problem in
age-structured population dynamics, namely the recovery of the unknown
birth function from the additional or overposed data consisting of the
total population over a time interval equal to the maximum life span of
the species. Conditions on the data are given to guarantee the
existence and uniqueness of a solution, and the question of continuous
dependence of the birth function on the data is addressed. Some
numerical simulations are presented to indicate that one can in fact
use the methods of the paper to reconstruct the birth
function."
Correspondence: W. Rundell, Department of
Mathematics, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
55:10736 Schoen,
Robert. Practical uses of multistate population
models. Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 14, 1988. 341-61 pp. Palo
Alto, California. In Eng.
"The article provides a nontechnical
description of multistate population models, useful analytical tools
that can reflect changes over time in the characteristics of a closed
group of persons. The multistate life table literature is reviewed,
emphasizing applications of the models to studies of marital status,
family and household status, interregional migration, and labor force
participation and concluding with a discussion of the relationship
between multistate and event history
models."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Department of
Sociology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801.
Location: Princeton University Library (SSRC).
55:10737 Wachter,
Kenneth W. Age group growth rates and population
momentum. Population Studies, Vol. 42, No. 3, Nov 1988. 487-501
pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author challenges an assertion by
Samuel Preston that "the average of the period age-group growth rates
of a population averaged up to the mean generation length is a close
approximation to the intrinsic rate of natural increase. This note
shows that this claim is not true in general and considers what
conditions make it true in special cases. These arguments lead to a
reconsideration of population momentum, in particular to a study of the
existence of a growth-free initial segment of the age pyramid of a
population in transition to stationarity." A reply by Preston is
included (pp. 495-501).
For the article by Preston, published in
1986, see 53:10792.
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter,
Demography and Statistics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont
Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
55:10738 Wachter,
Kenneth W. Elusive cycles: are there dynamically possible
Lee-Easterlin models for U.S. births? Sloan-Berkeley Working Paper
in Population Studies, No. 9, Oct 1988. 63 pp. University of
California, Institute of International Studies: Berkeley, California.
In Eng.
"The performance of formal demographic feedback models like
Ronald Lee's provide a test of whether theories of endogenous fertility
adjustment like Richard Easterlin's can explain the cyclic swings in
U.S. and other births that they were put forward to explain. This
paper shows how the specification of a demographic feed-back model
determines its ability to sustain cycles of a given period and
amplitude observed in data. Only a few of the many versions of
Easterlin-style theories imply formal models which do prove capable of
matching U.S. targets, and then only by narrow margins. The general
methods presented here are suitable for a broad investigation of the
possible role of age-specific feedback in the diversity of more and
less cyclic patterns in birth series in the developed
world."
Correspondence: Sloan-Berkeley Working Group,
Institute of International Studies, c/o Graduate Group in Demography,
2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
