Volume 54 - Number 4 - Winter 1988

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

54:40781 Gartner, Karla. Comparison of methods of analysis using data of the panel study of the Federal Institute for Population Research (BIB). Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 56, 1988. 149-64 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author compares methods of analysis using data from a panel study of the Federal Republic of Germany's Institute for Population Research. "This does not only involve a comparison of the methods as such, but above all also a comparison of the results (of these methods), of their presentation and of the possibilities of interpreting them. The three programmes selected for this paper represent methods for...so-called multivariate analysis, in particular for the analysis of non-metric data as they are included in the panel study...." Data are for a sample of 1,868 women interviewed at least twice and concern women's educational status and the qualities of motherhood.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40782 Inaba, Hisashi. Asymptotic properties of the inhomogeneous Lotka-Von Foerster system. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1988. 247-64, 317 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper, we investigate an extension of the multistate stable population model, which makes allowances for migration. The model is formulated as an inhomogeneous system of first order partial differential equations with integral boundary conditions. First, we construct its classical solution. Next, we reformulate the system as an abstract inhomogeneous Cauchy problem on a Banach space, and give its mild solution by using the population semigroup. Our main purpose is to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the mild solution."
Correspondence: H. Inaba, Institute of Population Problems, 2-2 1-chome, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40783 Johnson, Eric S. Treatment of subjects lost to follow-up in the analysis of mortality studies. Journal of Occupational Medicine, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1988. 60-2 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"In the analysis of retrospective cohort mortality studies, persons lost to follow-up are either withdrawn at the time of loss or are assumed to be alive at the end of the study. It has been advocated that the former method does not give a biased estimate of expected mortality in this group, and is therefore the preferred method. In this paper, it is argued that this approach is not always the best one, and that in certain situations, depending on the method of follow-up used, assuming that persons lost to follow-up are alive may give more accurate results than withdrawing them at the time of loss." The data are from a recent study concerning 28,901 workers in a meat cutters' union in Baltimore, Maryland.
Correspondence: E. S. Johnson, Epidemiology Branch, National Institute of Environmental Health Science, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:40784 Kaul, Samvit S.; Pathak, R. K. Estimation of calendar age from the emergence times of permanent teeth in Punjabi children in Chandigarh, India. Annals of Human Biology, Vol. 15, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1988. 307-9 pp. London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"Gingival emergence data for permanent teeth, obtained from an earlier cross-sectional study of 1,137 Punjabi schoolchildren aged 6-14 years in Chandigarh, India, have been used to calculate the median age and the 10th-90th percentile range of age, for a given number of teeth present. From about 5 years (when the first tooth, on average, emerges) up to the time of emergence of second molars (around 14 years), the total number of permanent teeth emerged can be used to estimate the age of a child, with an error of about 13-34% of the median age for males and about 11-35% for females."
Correspondence: S. Kaul, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, E-1/77, University Campus, Sector 14, Chandigarh 160 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40785 Kondo, Hitoshi. On pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth: a note. European Economic Review, Vol. 30, No. 2, Apr 1986. 439-47 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"It is known that there are pitfalls in the way of attempts to construct an economic theory of population and growth based on formal models of the family of the type developed by Becker. It is shown that these pitfalls can be avoided by going slightly outside Becker's model, modifying the typical family's budget constraint to allow explicitly for the cost of raising children."
Correspondence: H. Kondo, University of New South Wales, Kensington, N.S.W. 2033, Australia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:40786 Lee, Ronald D. Induced population growth and induced technological progress: their interaction in the accelerating stage. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1988. 265-88, 317 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A simple model of Malthusian population growth combined with population-induced technological progress generates accelerating growth. The model may be relevant for a first stage of growth in which natural resource limitations can be overcome through technological progress; it is not applicable to a later stage in which resource constraints are more resistant. Parameter values are roughly inferred from historical experience."
Correspondence: R. D. Lee, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40787 Ma, Yingtong. The effect of standardization and rate decomposition in population analysis. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 5, Sep 29, 1986. 22-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
Two alternative ways of distinguishing between the vital rates of two distinct populations are introduced. In the first method, called direct standardization, the effect of other factors is held constant when the effect of one factor is estimated. The second method, indirect standardization, involves choosing an approximate standard to estimate a specific rate. A method of rate decomposition is also presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40788 Mitra, S. Weighted least square estimates of the parameters of a model of survivorship probabilities. Janasamkhya, Vol. 5, No. 1, Jun 1987. 27-32 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"A weighted regression has been fitted to estimate the parameters of a model involving functions of survivorship probability and age. Earlier, the parameters were estimated by the method of ordinary least squares and the results were very encouraging. However, a multiple regression equation passing through the origin has been found appropriate for the present model from statistical consideration. Fortunately, this method, while methodologically more sophisticated, has a slight edge over the former as evidenced by the respective measures of reproducibility in the model and actual life tables selected for this study."
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40789 Mitra, Samarendranath. Models of birth trajectories with certain patterns of variations in vital rates. Genus, Vol. 43, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1987. 1-14 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
The author seeks "to present a generalized illustration of changes in the net maternity rates that can be incorporated in the so-called integral equation of Lotka's stable population model and can still be solved in the traditional way....As a result, the birth trajectory does not necessarily attain a stable state. For certain patterns of mathematical functions the trajectory eventually becomes stable while for certain others it shows cyclical fluctuations....This information is needed for deriving the long term solutions in addition to the information about the intrinsic rate of growth which is obtained from the traditional integral equation."
Correspondence: S. Mitra, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40790 Namboodiri, Krishnan. Toward a unified approach to expounding demographic indices. Janasamkhya, Vol. 5, No. 1, Jun 1987. 1-25 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"Based on the notion that duration of occupancy of a demographic state is a random variable and defining demographic behaviours in terms of hazard rates or transitional intensities, this review paper shows that a framework of piecewise exponentials can provide a unified approach in expounding demographic indices." The primary focus is on mortality.
Correspondence: K. Namboodiri, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40791 Narayana, K. R. Method of fitting logistic curve. Janasamkhya, Vol. 5, No. 1, Jun 1987. 69-72 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"The paper presents a simple method of fitting the Logistic Curve by estimating the parameters in a different way than the methods known in the literature."
Correspondence: K. R. Narayana, Assistant Director of Census Operations, Karnataka 21/1 Mission Road, Bangalore 560 027, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40792 Nath, D. C. Multiregional two-sex population model. Janasamkhya, Vol. 5, No. 1, Jun 1987. 33-40 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"The theory of stable population has been developed quite thoroughly in the demographic literature, but it deals with single-region populations that are assumed to be undisturbed by migration. Rogers...proposed the stable population model for the case of a multiregional population that experiences internal migration for single-sex. In this paper, considering a birth-function dependent on both sexes, the multiregional stable population model is extended for two-sex population."
Correspondence: D. C. Nath, Department of Statistics, Gauhati University, Gauhati 781 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40793 Newell, Colin. Methods and models in demography. ISBN 0-89862-783-4. LC 88-45079. 1988. x, 217 pp. Guilford Press: New York, New York. In Eng.
This manual, intended for students and researchers, is concerned with the methods used to study population structure and change. The first part of the book "covers the topics conventionally found in introductory textbooks of demographic methods....These topics are the basic measures used in the analysis of fertility, mortality, nuptiality and migration." The second part deals with demographic models. "The models described are those which are in common use for demographic estimation, and thus tend to describe the patterns of mortality and fertility in terms of age. Models used for more theoretical or explanatory purposes..., or the wide range of models of human fecundability, are not covered. Nor is there any mention of models of the migration process."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40794 Roberge, Anne; Morin, Denis. Evaluation of the aging of the population by Coulson's index and the median age. [Evaluation du vieilissement de la population par l'indice de Coulson et l'age median.] Cahiers de Geographie du Quebec, Vol. 29, No. 78, Dec 1985. 383-403 pp. Quebec City, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The efficiency of Coulson's index and the median age in measuring the intensity of demographic aging are examined using data concerning the Canadian province of Quebec. The results suggest that Coulson's index measures demographic aging much more precisely and corresponds accurately to a regional model of aging dominated by the influence of growth and the urbanization level of the municipalities concerned.
Location: New York Public Library.

54:40795 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). General report from a technical working-group on methods for incorporating demographic variables in the planning process using microcomputers. (Santiago, Chile, March 2-5, 1987). [Informe general del seminario tecnico sobre: metodos para incorporar variables demograficas en la planificacion a traves de uso de microcomputadores. (Santiago de Chile, 2 al 5 de marzo de 1987).] CELADE Serie A, No. 180; LC/DEM/G.62, Mar 8, 1988. 53 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This is a report from a working group organized by CELADE concerning the use of microcomputers to incorporate demographic variables into socioeconomic development planning. It includes a general introduction to the subject, a description of the various models available, a review of applications of these models in the region using Latin American data, a discussion of issues and problems, and recommendations from the working group. A list of participants and of papers presented is included.
Correspondence: CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:40796 Venkatacharya, K.; Teklu, Tesfay. Reverse survival methods of estimating birth rates under non-stable conditions. RIPS Working Paper, No. 1/87, [1987]. 40 pp. University of Ghana, Regional Institute for Population Studies [RIPS]: Legon, Ghana. In Eng.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the close similarities in three methods for estimating fertility under non-stable conditions, and to illustrate a robust procedure for estimating the birth rate that can be used with the defective data commonly found in Africa. The methods analyzed include those developed by Coale and Preston and the reverse survival ratio method.
Correspondence: RIPS, University of Ghana, P.O. Box 96, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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