54:30697 Balicki,
Andrzej. The size of newly established cohorts of workers
in the analysis of labor force fluctuations. [Liczebnosc kohorty
nowo przyjetych pracownikow w badaniu plynnosci kadr.] Studia
Demograficzne, No. 3/89, 1987. 41-9 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.
A model for estimating probabilities among
cohorts is described, and some problems associated with estimation
methods are discussed. Consideration is given to the relationship
between new entrants cohort size and the reliability of sample
estimates. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30698 Baran,
Alina; Gren, Jerzy; Jozwiak, Janina; Laszuk, Jozef; Zimny,
Zdzislaw. Mathematical methods of demographic phenomena
optimization. [Matematyczne metody optymalizacji zjawisk
demograficznych.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 233, 1987. 94 pp.
Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i
Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The
authors describe a methodology for calculating an optimum population in
given circumstances, outline the underlying assumptions, and verify it
using empirical data for Poland. Attention is given to the definition
of demographic optimization and optimization procedures. Two long-term
methods, one developed by Bourgeois-Pichat and one by Valkovics, are
verified, as well as a short-term stochastic control
model.
Correspondence: Instytut Statystyki i Demografii,
Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Al Niepodleglosci 162, Warsaw,
Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30699 Conlisk,
John. Simple bounds for the dominant eigenvalue of a
generalized Leslie matrix. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol.
1, No. 2, 1988. 131-5, 207 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In
Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Simple bounds are presented for the
dominant eigenvalue of the generalized Leslie matrix of a multiregional
demographic growth model."
Correspondence: J. Conlisk,
Department of Economics, University of California, La Jolla, CA 92093.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30700 Gerard,
Hubert; Loriaux, Michel. Beyond the quantitative:
expectations and limits of qualitative analysis in demography. Chair
of Quetelet, 1985. [Au-dela du quantitatif: espoirs et limites de
l'analyse qualitative en demographie. Chaire Quetelet '85.] ISBN
2-87085-152-9. 1988. 670 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut
de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Eng; Fre.
These are the 1985
proceedings of the annual seminar held under the auspices of the
Quetelet Chair at the Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium. The
theme of the conference was qualitative analysis in demographic
studies, with a focus on the examination of the advantages and
disadvantages of the qualitative approach to the study of demographic
problems. Of the 18 papers included here, 15 are in French and 3 in
English. Some disadvantages of the purely quantitative approach are
first outlined. The next four papers illustrate the diversity of the
qualitative approach. Eight papers consider aspects of the application
of the qualitative approach in specific cases. A final section of four
papers is concerned with how to combine the best of both qualitative
and quantitative approaches.
Selected items will be cited in this or
subsequent issues of Population Index.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30701 Hoffman,
Saul D.; Duncan, Greg J. Multinomial and conditional logit
discrete-choice models in demography. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 3,
Aug 1988. 415-27 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Although
discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing
regularity in demographic analyses, McFadden's conditional logit model
is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are
appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function
of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition
to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue
that this feature of conditional logit makes it more appropriate for
estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit
model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial
logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated
with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by
divorced or separated women." Data are from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics and concern white U.S. women under age 45 who became divorced
or separated between 1969 and 1982.
Correspondence: S. D.
Hoffman, Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE
19716. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30702 Horiuchi,
Shiro; Preston, Samuel H. Age-specific growth rates: the
legacy of past population dynamics. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 3,
Aug 1988. 429-41 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Recent developments
in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is
widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth
rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient
for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates
into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains
all of the pertinent features of a population's demographic history
that are required to relate major demographic functions for a
particular period to one another. This article presents an expression
for the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for
age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth
rate is determined by a population's demographic past and present
various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic
scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human
populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth
rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from
information on current demographic conditions."
This is a revised
version of a paper originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of
the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50,
No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 444).
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi,
Population Division, United Nations Building, New York, NY 10017.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30703 Huinink,
Johannes. Methods of exploratory cohort analyses.
[Methoden der explorativen Kohortenanalyse.] Zeitschrift fur
Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1988. 69-87 pp. Wiesbaden,
Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"In
this contribution, two methods of cohort analysis will be presented.
First, the classical model approach of the age, period, and cohort
(APC) analysis will be discussed....The APC analysis of the birth rates
for the Federal Republic of Germany of the 1958-1982 period...will
serve as an example. It is an essential deficit of this method that it
does not adequately permit [the identification of] the effects of
interaction of age, period or cohort membership. Therefore, another
simple method of cohort analysis will be presented and explained using
the same demographic example....It will be shown how this approach can
contribute to an explorative overall picture of the structure of
reciprocally conditioned effects of age, period, and cohort
membership."
Correspondence: J. Huinink,
Max-Planck-Institut fur Bildungsforschung, Lentzeallee 94, 1000 Berlin
33, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30704 Hull,
Terence H. Using Brass P/F adjustments in estimates of
Indonesian fertility. Population Today, Vol. 16, No. 7-8, Jul-Aug
1988. 6-7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author discusses some
problems concerning the application of indirect methods of fertility
estimation to the most recent data on fertility from the 1987
Indonesian Prevalence Survey. He cautions that recent estimates of the
total fertility rate may be more a result of methodological problems
than of actual changes in fertility.
Correspondence: T. H.
Hull, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of
Pacific Studies, Australian National University, POB 4, Canberra ACT
2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30705 Johnson,
Robert A.; Woltman, Henry F. Evaluating census data
quality using intensive reinterviews: a comparison of U.S. Census
Bureau methods and Rasch methods. Sociological Methodology, Vol.
17, 1987. 185-204 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper, we
consider Rasch measurement methodology as an alternative to
conventional U.S. Census Bureau methodology for evaluating the quality
of data obtained using different measurements of the same
characteristic. Rather than assuming, like the Census approach, that
respondents have true states corresponding to the categories of a
questionnaire item, the Rasch approach assumes that measuring
instruments and survey respondents vary continuously on one or more
common dimensions called latent traits. Unlike the Census approach,
the Rasch approach requires that the properties of measuring
instruments be invariant across different subclasses of respondents,
generating parameter estimates that are sufficient statistics for
elementary discrete sampling models. The different conclusions that
can be drawn from the Census and Rasch approaches are illustrated by an
evaluation of questionnaire items designed to measure the limitation or
prevention of work because of physical or mental
disability."
Correspondence: R. A. Johnson, U.S. Bureau of
the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton
University Library (SSRC).
54:30706 Ledent,
Jacques; Rogers, Andrei. Stable growth in native-dependent
multistate population dynamics. Mathematical Population Studies,
Vol. 1, No. 2, 1988. 157-71, 207 pp. New York, New York/London,
England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Users of multistate life tables
and projections have recognized that the Markovian assumptions
underlying such models are unduly restrictive and should be relaxed
whenever data permit. Efforts to include the influences of previous
occupancies have included the incorporation of place-of-birth
dependence. This paper addresses the stable growth properties of such
generalized multistate models. It shows how place-of-birth-specific
stable growth measures can be calculated without projection simply by
solving the characteristic equation. An example using Canadian data
illustrates the argument."
Correspondence: J. Ledent,
National Institute for Scientific Research--Urbanization, University of
Quebec, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30707 Paszek,
Barbara. Competitive risks models. [Modele ryzyk
konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/89, 1987. 51-5 pp.
Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Single- and
multiple-variable models are discussed, with a focus on the potential
effects of demographic factors on individuals within a sample
population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30708 Quesnel,
Andre. The objectives and types of the qualitative
approach in demographic studies undertaken in countries with incomplete
statistics. [Objectifs et formes de l'approche qualitative dans
les etudes demographiques menees dans les pays a statistiques
incompletes.] In: Au-dela du quantitatif: espoirs et limites de
l'analyse qualitative en demographie. Chaire Quetelet '85. 1988.
321-45 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In
Fre.
The author explores possible ways of developing a qualitative
approach to demographic research in developing countries. The primary
objectives of such an approach are defined as the improvement of
available demographic data and the identification of the role of human
reproduction in the overall process of social change. The paper
consists primarily of a review of how individual demographers have
resolved such issues in specific cases.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30709 Salvatore,
Dominick. Modeling demographic and economic dynamics.
Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, No. 1, Apr 1988. 162 pp. Society
for Policy Modeling: New York, New York. In Eng.
This special
issue, devoted to modeling demographic and economic dynamics, is the
product of a session on population growth and economic development held
at the 1987 Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association. It
contains six papers by different authors. The primary geographic focus
is on developing countries.
Selected items will be cited in this or
subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: D.
Salvatore, Department of Economics, Fordham University, Fordham Road,
Bronx, NY 10458. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
54:30710 Saxena, P.
C.; Talwar, P. P. Recent advances in the techniques for
demographic analysis. LC 87-900498. 1987. xiv, 456 pp. Himalaya
Publishing House: Bombay, India. In Eng.
This is a collection of
papers originally presented at a workshop on techniques of demographic
analysis, sponsored by the Indian Association for the Study of
Population in Bombay, India, November 2-6, 1982. "In all, 17 invited
papers, included in the volume, have been grouped into three parts. In
Part I (Chapters 1 to 5), the techniques of fertility analysis
developed recently have been discussed. The section includes papers on
the estimation of current fertility and 'birth intervals.' Part II
(Chapters 6 to 9) contains papers which explicitly deal with the
techniques for analysis of mortality data. The first two chapters in
this section focus on the techniques of constructing 'Life
Tables'....The other two papers [examine] the latest techniques for
estimating infant and childhood mortality. Part III (Chapters 10 to
17) contains papers on a variety of topics in Multivariate
Analysis...." The geographic scope is
worldwide.
Correspondence: Himalaya Publishing House,
"Ramdoot", Dr. Bhalerao Marg, Girgaon (Kelewadi), Bombay 400 004,
India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30711 Stoto,
Michael A. Dealing with uncertainty: statistics for an
aging population. American Statistician, Vol. 42, No. 2, May 1988.
103-10 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Uncertainty in statistics
and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes
from four sources: differences in definitions, sampling error,
nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these
uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but
most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining
uncertainty. Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore
uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making. Techniques
for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory,
assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis,
and multiple independent estimates." The primary geographical focus is
on the United States.
Correspondence: M. A. Stoto,
Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution
Avenue, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30712 Stoto,
Michael A. Estimating age-specific transition rates for
population sub-groups from successive surveys: changes in adult rates
of cigarette smoking. Population Studies, Vol. 42, No. 2, Jul
1988. 227-39 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"As an extension of
recent results in generalized stable population theory, in this paper a
new method for estimating age-specific transition rates for population
sub-groups is developed, based on data from two successive demographic
surveys. Simple modifications allow the method to work when the data
are tabulated in irregular age groups and when the surveys are taken at
irregular intervals. A test of the method based on detailed data on
smoking behaviour from the 1976 and 1981 censuses of New Zealand shows
that the method works well, even when the data are aggregated into a
small number of irregular age groups."
This is a revised version of
a paper originally presented at the 1986 Annual Meeting of the
Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 52, No.
3, Fall 1986, p. 415).
Correspondence: M. A. Stoto,
Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution
Avenue, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30713 Stupp, Paul
W. Estimating intercensal age schedules by intracohort
interpolation. Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 2, Summer 1988.
209-24 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"This paper describes a
procedure for estimating intercensal age schedules of rates of
occurrence of demographic events (birth, death, marriage) from
tabulations at two points in time of a status of the population
(average children ever born, persons surviving, proportion ever
married) classified by age." The procedure is called iterative
intracohort interpolation. The paper describes a more general version
than that originally developed by Ansley J. Coale and provides a
probabilistic interpretation of the age-specific rates estimated by the
procedure.
Correspondence: P. W. Stupp, Carolina Population
Center, 123 West Franklin, Room 305, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30714 Volkov, A.
G. Demographic trends and the laws that govern them.
[Demograficheskie protsessy i ikh zakonomernosti.] LC 86-221619. 1986.
191 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a collection of papers
by various authors on demographic modeling. In most cases, the models
discussed are based on stable population theory. The major subject
headings under which the papers are organized are demo-economic
relationships, reproduction and population composition, laws of
fertility, life expectancy, and population reproduction and
migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
