54:30654 Halter,
William A.; Hemming, Richard. The impact of demographic
change on social security financing. International Monetary Fund
Staff Papers, Vol. 34, No. 3, Sep 1987. 471-502 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"The relationship between prospective demographic changes and
social security tax rates over the long term is examined for four
countries--the Federal Republic of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom,
and the United States. Through use of a simple projection model it is
shown that, without significant reform, social security programs as
constituted in 1980 would have implied substantial increases in social
security tax rates by the year 2025 in all four countries. The model
is then used to explore how a range of policy options would affect the
evolution of tax rates. Recent policy measures taken in each of the
countries can be summarized in terms of the model, and it is shown that
these measures lead to markedly lower tax rates than with unreformed
programs, although the tax rate in Germany will remain
high."
Location: Princeton University Library (UN).
54:30655 Poulain,
Michel. Population and social welfare: Floreffe.
[Population et aide sociale: Floreffe.] ISBN 2-8041-1044-3. 1988. 95
pp. Fondation Roi Baudouin: Brussels, Belgium; De Boeck Universite:
Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
This is one in a series of reports
analyzing the social, economic, and cultural effects of current
demographic trends at the local level in Belgium, with the aim of
giving local policymakers a basis for decisions concerning
infrastructure, education, and administration. The emphasis of this
report is on the relationship between demography and social welfare,
using the commune of Floreffe as an example. A demographic analysis of
the commune is presented, and the system of social welfare is
described. The relationship between demographic factors and the social
services is discussed, for both the present and the future.
For a
related report by the same author, also published in 1988, see
elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
54:30656 Sembajwe,
Israel. The impact of rapid population growth on school
enrolments in southern Africa. Working Papers in Demography, No.
5, Oct 1985. vi, 38 pp. National University of Lesotho, Department of
Statistics, Demography Unit: Maseru, Lesotho. In Eng.
"This study
illustrates the impact of rapid population growth on school enrolments
in the Southern African states which are members [of the U.N. Economic
Commission for Africa]. It also highlights the importance of
incorporating population variables in planning for education." The
geographical focus is on the states of Botswana, Lesotho, and
Swaziland. The author concludes that "the three Southern African
States have made important steps towards universal primary education
and more expanded secondary and higher education enrolments....but due
to rapid population growth there may still be several thousand children
without access to primary school education by the year
2000."
Correspondence: I. Sembajwe, National University of
Lesotho, Department of Statistics, Demography Unit, P.O. Roma 180,
Maseru, Lesotho. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30657 Wood,
Charles H.; de Carvalho, Jose A. M. The demography of
inequality in Brazil. Cambridge Latin American Studies, No. 67,
ISBN 0-521-35174-X. LC 87-32991. 1988. xii, 303 pp. Cambridge
University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This book examines how transformations in Brazil's social,
economic and political organization affect the demographic behaviour of
people who live in different parts of the country and who occupy
different positions in the social system. The authors review the
history of unequal development and document the concentration of income
and land ownership. Using data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, they
show how the Brazilian style of economic growth unequally affected
different population subgroups. Mortality estimates for white and
nonwhite people measure the consequences of racial inequality on the
life chances of children. Other chapters investigate rural
out-migration, the impact of Amazon colonization schemes on rural
poverty, and the implications of differential rates of population
growth among rich and poor households for future patterns of inequality
and underemployment. The overall perspective places the concept of
inequality at the centre of the study of demographic and structural
change."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30658 Johnson,
Stanley P. China, the United States and the United
Nations. Populi, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1988. 47-69 pp. New York, New
York. In Eng.
The issues surrounding the dispute between China, the
United States, and the United Nations over UNFPA involvement in China's
one-child policy and family planning program are discussed.
Consideration is given to factors leading to the partial withdrawal of
U.S. funding to UNFPA in 1985 and 1986; the effects of China's
population policy on fertility; the general demographic situation in
China today; and the extent to which China's population control
measures could be used by other countries. Data are from official and
other published sources.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
54:30659 Kahn, Joan
R.; Mason, William M. Political alienation, cohort size,
and the Easterlin hypothesis. American Sociological Review, Vol.
52, No. 2, Apr 1987. 155-69 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Easterlin
argues that his cohort crowding explanation of temporal variability in
fertility trends applies to divorce, suicide, crime and political
alienation. Using two commonly employed survey items held to measure
political alienation, we show that Easterlin's argument does not
account for temporal variability in alienation between 1952 and 1980 in
the United States. In addition, we find that a period basis, as
distinguished from an age, cohort, or more elaborate basis, suffices to
describe swings in alienation for the years under consideration....The
issues associated with the rise of political alienation in the 1960s
were primarily political and social, not economic, as would be required
by a generic cohort crowding hypothesis." Data are from official and
other published sources.
Correspondence: W. M. Mason,
Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South
University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30660 Rouyer,
Alwyn R. Political capacity and the decline of fertility
in India. American Political Science Review, Vol. 81, No. 2, Jun
1987. 453-70 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"With data from 15 Indian
states, in this study I demonstrate that political capacity, defined as
the ability of government to penetrate society and extract resources,
has a more significant--though indirect--effect on fertility behavior
than does level of economic development. A path-analysis model with
six variables--crude birth rate (the dependent variable),
family-planning-program effort, mean female age at marriage,
physical-quality-of-life index (PQLI), income per capita, and political
capacity--showed a strong indirect effect by the political-capacity
measure on fertility decline through both the PQLI and family-planning
effort. Within the model, income per capita had little effect on birth
rate or any of the intervening variables. The conclusion drawn is that
under conditions of economic backwardness as exist in India, it is
politics, not economics, that is the primary determinant of fertility
patterns."
Correspondence: A. A. Rouyer, Department of
Political Science, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
54:30661 Bogdanov,
Zdravko. Possibilities and problems of studying health
status by means of population censuses. [Vazmozhnosti i problemi
za izuchavane na zdravnoto sastoyanie pri prebroyavaniyata na
naselenieto.] Naselenie, Vol. 5, No. 3, 1987. 100-5 pp. Sofia,
Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Problems concerning the
measurement of the health status of Bulgaria's population are
described. In particular, the author assesses the use of census data
for this purpose. The use of surveys to collect health status data to
supplement census data is also considered.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30662
Breckenridge, Mary B.; Tallia, Alfred F.; Like, Robert
C. Display of small-area variation in health-related data:
a methodology using resistant statistics. Social Science and
Medicine, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1988. 141-51 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford,
England. In Eng.
"We present a methodology based on exploratory
data analysis (EDA) techniques that we have found useful in examining
health-related data for our ambulatory care catchment area. Our
examples use three population characteristics that have major
implications for health care planning for the elderly: 1970-1980
change in population aged 65+; the percent of the population aged 65+
below poverty level; and the percent of single-person households among
households with one or more persons aged 65+....Comparison of maps
based on the EDA techniques and maps based on several traditional
methods of value classing for the same data illustrates the influence
of classing choices on the interpretation of cartographic displays of
health-related data." Data are from the 1980 census and concern 25
municipalities in Middlesex County, New
Jersey.
Correspondence: M. B. Breckenridge, Department of
Family Medicine, UMDNJ Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New
Brunswick, NJ 08903-0019. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
54:30663
Breckenridge, Mary B.; Like, Robert C. Practical
applications of demography in community-oriented primary care. In:
Community-oriented primary care: from principle to practice, edited by
Paul A. Nutting. Pub. Order No. HRS-A-PE 86-1. 1987. 90-108 pp. U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services
Administration: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This chapter, part of a
book on community-oriented primary care (COPC), demonstrates how
demographic information and data analysis techniques can be used by
health-care professionals and administrators. It focuses on
"techniques for making the readily available demographic information
more useful to you as you consider moving into a COPC mode of practice.
The age and sex composition of one New Jersey county's population
provides the examples of simple pencil-and-paper graphics--age
histograms, box-and-whiskerplots, stem-and-leaf displays--that draw
your attention to similarities and differences. The chapter gives
step-by-step instructions for these graphic techniques so you will be
able to apply them to pertinent epidemiological and other
health-related data for a community of your
choice."
Correspondence: M. B. Breckenridge, Department of
Family Medicine, UMDNJ-Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New
Brunswick, NJ 08903-0019. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
54:30664 Hull,
Terence H. Plague in Java. In: Death and disease in
Southeast Asia, edited by Norman G. Owen. Southeast Asia Publications
Series, No. 14, ISBN 0-19-588853-7. 1987. 210-34 pp. Oxford University
Press: Singapore. In Eng.
The spread and eventual containment of
the bubonic plague in Java, Indonesia, is discussed, using official
data for the period 1910-1939. The disease is tracked from its
outbreak in 1910 through a remission period and periods of higher
activity, with an emphasis on the geographic pattern of its spread.
Government response and the effects of the disease on the public health
system are noted, as are the influence of government home sanitation
policies concerning the plague on family health and infant mortality in
subsequent years.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30665 Juliano,
Yara; Novo, Neil F.; Goihman, Samuel; de Paiva, Elias R.; Leser,
Walter. Haenszel's standardized coefficient of lost years
of life: a comparison with the standardized coefficient of general
mortality with regard to its use as a health level indicator for
populations. [Coeficiente padronizado de anos de vida perdidos, de
Haenszel. Comparacao com o coeficiente padronizado de mortalidade
geral, quanto a utilizacao como indicador de nivel de saude de
populacoes.] Revista de Saude Publica, Vol. 21, No. 2, Apr 1987. 108-22
pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
The authors apply
the Lost Years of Life Rate (LYLR) developed by Haenszel in 1950 to
data from various countries, and more specifically to data from the
state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. They conclude that the LYLR is in many
cases a more useful indicator of the health level of a population than
is the Standardized Mortality Ratio.
Correspondence: Y.
Juliano, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva da Escola Paulista de
Medicina, Rua Botucatu 740, 04023 Sao Paulo, Brazil. Location:
U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.
54:30666
Lacoste-Dujardin, C. Fertility and contraception
in the Maghrib. [Fecondite et contraception au Maghreb.] Famille
et Population, No. 5-6, 1987. 37-47 pp. Tunis, Tunisia. In Fre. with
sum. in Eng; Ara.
The cultural and historical factors that have
contributed to poor maternal health in the countries of Northern Africa
are described. The consequent low level of maternal health in the
region is identified as a major obstacle with regard to change in
family planning in the region.
Correspondence: C.
Lacoste-Dujardin, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 295 Rue
Saint Jacques, F-75005 Paris, France. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30667 Ramirez,
Nelson; Duarte, Isis; Gomez, Carmen. Population and health
in the Dominican Republic. [Poblacion y salud en la Republica
Dominicana.] IEPD Estudio, No. 5, Dec 1986. 158 pp. Profamilia,
Instituto de Estudios de Poblacion y Desarrollo [IEPD]: Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic. In Spa.
This study is concerned with the
relationship between health and population factors in the Dominican
Republic. Chapters are included on methodological aspects, the
relationship between population trends and the health situation,
factors affecting health, health service needs from 1990 to 2000, and
conclusions and recommendations. Data are from a variety of local
primary and secondary sources.
Correspondence: IEPD de
Profamilia, Calle Dr. Pineyro No. 160, Apartamento 302, Apartado Postal
1053, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Location: New York
Public Library.
54:30668 Rosenberg,
Michael J. Smoking and reproductive health. ISBN
0-88416-549-3. LC 86-25604. 1987. xvi, 239 pp. PSG Publishing:
Littleton, Massachusetts. In Eng.
This collection of 38 papers by
various authors is the product of the International Conference on
Smoking and Reproductive Health held in San Francisco, California, in
1985. The primary focus is on reproductive problems associated with
smoking. "These problems include contraindication to use of certain
contraceptives, impaired conception and fetal development, and problems
with delivery, infant development, and cancers of the reproductive
system." Secondary considerations include the effectiveness of smoking
prevention programs and the provision of a forum for presenting the
interests of nonsmokers.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
54:30669 Sagan,
Leonard A. The health of nations: true causes of sickness
and well-being. ISBN 0-465-02893-4. LC 87-47518. 1987. 233 pp.
Basic Books: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is a book about
health, about its meaning, and about its sources." The author's theme
is that although the increase in human life expectancy of about 40
years associated with modernization is one of the most remarkable
events in human history, we know very little about the causes of this
increase. He demonstrates that many of the popular beliefs concerning
the causes of increased life expectancy have little or no basis in
fact. He also examines the health experience of the United States,
particularly reasons for the failure of U.S. mortality rates to keep
pace with those of other developed countries. The author concludes
that the modern rise in life expectancy is not due primarily to the
provision of better medical care, nutrition, or clean water. "More
important in explaining the decline in death worldwide is the rise of
hope and the decline in despair and hopelessness." The implications for
the individual and society and particularly for the provision of public
health and research in the United States are
considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
54:30670 Masaki,
Motofumi. The effect of migration on maximum opportunity
for selection. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 20, No. 3, Jul
1988. 337-43 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The effect of
migration on the maximum opportunity for selection is analysed using
koseki data, the Japanese family registration records, of a village
population in a small island. When selection intensity is divided into
two components, migration greatly influences the variance of the
mortality component of the original formula. The difference in
selection intensity, with and without allowance for migration, is
conspicuous in the recent cohort; the intensity, with a migration
component, shows a consistent increase, whereas it declined in the
original formula. The implications of this are discussed in the
context of the genetic structure of a population of small size,
changing rapidly over time."
Correspondence: M. Masaki,
Center for Demographic and Population Genetics, School of Biomedical
Sciences, University of Texas, Houston, TX 77225. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
