54:30067 Correas,
Pilar. Spanish populations of over 5,000 inhabitants
between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. [Poblaciones
espanolas de mas de 5,000 habitantes entre los siglos XVII y XIX.]
Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 6, No. 1, Mar
1988. 5-23 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Data are presented on urban
centers in Spain with populations of over 5,000 in 1600, 1700, 1750,
1800, and 1850.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30068 de
Saint-Moulin, Leon. An attempt to describe the population
history of Zaire. [Essai d'histoire de la population du Zaire.]
Zaire-Afrique, Vol. 27, No. 217, Sep 1987. 389-407 pp. Kinshasa, Zaire.
In Fre.
Population trends in Zaire since 1880 are analyzed.
Consideration is given to regional and subregional differences in
population development from 1938 to 1984. Data are from a variety of
official sources, including the 1984
census.
Correspondence: L. de Saint-Moulin, Faculte de
Theologie, Universite de Kinshasa, BP 127, Kinshasa XI, Zaire.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.
54:30069 Luna
Rodrigo, Gloria. The urban population of Spain,
1860-1930. [La poblacion urbana en Espana, 1860-1930.] Boletin de
la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 6, No. 1, Mar 1988. 25-68
pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Estimates of the urban population of
Spain are provided for selected years from 1860-1930. The data are
presented by province and are from official
sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30070 Snow, Dean
R.; Lanphear, Kim M. European contact and Indian
depopulation in the Northeast: the timing of the first epidemics.
Ethnohistory, Vol. 35, No. 1, Winter 1988. 15-33 pp. Durham, North
Carolina. In Eng.
"In order to estimate prehistoric Indian
population sizes in the New World, it is first necessary to gain a
better understanding of the demographic effects of European-introduced
diseases. To that end we have reexamined the timing of the first
introduction of these diseases into one region, the [northeastern
United States]. A careful reexamination of the ethnohistoric record
combined with a study of the history and process of smallpox has led us
to conclude that this and other such diseases did not enter the
Northeast until the seventeenth century, long after the well-documented
initial epidemics of the Caribbean and Mexico. Reasons for the lag are
suggested."
Correspondence: D. R. Snow, State University of
New York, Albany, NY 12222. Location: Princeton University
Library (PR).
54:30071 Spain.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Madrid, Spain).
The 1591 census of Castile. The lists of population. [Censo
de Castilla de 1591. Vecindarios.] ISBN 84-260-1241-8. 1984. 850 pp.
Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
This publication presents a revised,
corrected, and annotated version of the results of the 1591 census of
Castile, which makes up the major part of present-day Spain. A
commentary on the data by Annie Molinie-Bertrand is included. The data
concern commoners, nobles, and clerics and are presented by province
and local district.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30072 Teng,
Zezhi. Song dynasty's population over one hundred
million. Population Research, Vol. 4, No. 3, Jul 1987. 35-40 pp.
Beijing, China. In Eng.
Using historical data from the twelfth and
thirteenth centuries, the author notes that "the population of the Song
dynasty topped one hundred million. This was not only a significant
event in the history of China's population development but also
[offers] historical evidence of [the] prosperity of the Chinese
nation."
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou
Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 6, 1986.
Correspondence: Z.
Teng, Family Planning Commission of Rongcheng County, Shandong
Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30073 Wagstaff,
J. M. A note on some nineteenth-century population
statistics for Lebanon. British Society for Middle Eastern
Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986. 27-35 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The reliability of various estimates of Lebanon's population in the
nineteenth century is assessed. The author develops the hypothesis put
forward by K. H. Karpat that nineteenth- and early twentieth-century
population statistics were manipulated for political purposes.
For
the study by Karpat, published in 1985, see 51:30598.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).
54:30074 Ali,
Abdalla E. Population estimation from aerial photographs:
a case study from Sudan. Geography, Vol. 73, Pt. 2, No. 319, Apr
1988. 132-6 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"Two methods of
estimation of population are used for deriving population data in a
suburb of Khartoum, Sudan. Aerial photos were used in conjunction with
mirror stereoscopes. The results show that a population estimate with
an error of less than 10 per cent can be obtained. This is an
important conclusion for poor countries such as Sudan where resources
allotted for population studies are
scarce."
Correspondence: A. E. Ali, Department of Survey
Engineering, University of Khartoum, P.O. Box 321, Khartoum, Sudan.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
54:30075 Cartier,
Michel. Between two Chinese censuses: the sample survey
of 1987. [Entre deux recensements Chinois: l'enquete par sondage
de 1987.] Population, Vol. 43, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1988. 460-3 pp. Paris,
France. In Fre.
The results of the 1987 demographic survey
undertaken in China are summarized using information from published
Chinese official sources. The survey's function as a clarifier of
recent population trends is noted.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30076 Farah,
Francois. Methods of indirectly estimating the number of
permanent residents (actual population) from average dwelling size:
Lebanon and its communities. [Methodes d'estimation de l'effectif
des residents permanents (population de fait) par le biais de la
dimension moyenne du logement: le Liban, ses communautes.] In: Les
familles d'aujourd'hui: demographie et evolution recente des
comportements familiaux. Colloque de Geneve (17-20 septembre 1984).
No. 2, 1986. 401-12 pp. Association Internationale des Demographes de
Langue Francaise [AIDELF]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Methods for
indirectly estimating the number of permanent residents from statistics
concerning average size of dwelling are described and applied to data
for Lebanon. Estimations of population by major religious group are
provided for Lebanon for August 31, 1983. The author notes that even
though data reliability or availability may not be certain, it is still
possible to estimate the number of permanent residents in a given
area.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30077 Gottschalk,
Helmut. Population development in West Berlin, 1986.
[Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Berlin (West) 1986.] Berliner Statistik:
Monatsschrift, Vol. 42, No. 1, 1988. 2-12 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends
in West Berlin in 1986, and comparisons are made with data from earlier
years. Topics covered include population growth, marriages and
divorces, fertility, mortality, causes of death, internal and
international migration, and population change by district.
Comparative data for the German and foreign populations are provided in
most cases.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30078 Jamison,
Ellen; Johnson, Peter D.; Engels, Richard A. World
population profile: 1987. No. WP-87, LC 87-647922. Dec 1987. vi,
74 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This
report presents summary demographic information for all the countries
and territories of the world with a population of at least 5,000 in
1987. The primary source of data is the latest set of population
estimates and projections prepared for each country or area by the U.S.
Bureau of the Census. In most instances, comprehensive projections
were made by the component method, resulting in distributions of the
population by age and sex and requiring an assessment of probable
future trends of fertility, mortality, and international
migration....Base information comes from national censuses, surveys,
vital registration systems, and related sources as provided by the
individual countries and areas and stored in the International Data
Base of the Center for International Research." Chapters are included
on world population trends, the components of population change,
fertility declines, contraceptive prevalence, and sub-Saharan
Africa.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30079 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.); United States.
Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service (Washington,
D.C.). Rural and rural farm population: 1987.
Current Population Reports, Series P-27: Farm Population, No. 61, Jun
1988. iv, 42 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Estimates are presented of the population of the United States
living in rural areas in 1987, as well as of the population living on
farms. Sections are also included on fertility characteristics by
marital status and farm or nonfarm residence; persons in farm
occupations, 1820-1987; and poverty status by farm or nonfarm
residence.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30080 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). State
population and household estimates, with age, sex, and components of
change: 1981-87. Current Population Reports, Series P-25:
Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1024, May 1988. iv, 83 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains provisional State
estimates of the resident and civilian [U.S.] populations and of
households for July 1, 1987, revised annual population and household
estimates for July 1, 1981, through 1986, and components of population
change for the 1980-87 period....Also shown are annual age estimates
and median age of the resident population of States, 1981-87, by sex
for 10-year age groups and selected broad age
groups."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30081 Wegman,
Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1986.
Pediatrics, Vol. 80, No. 6, Dec 1987. 817-27 pp. Elk Grove Village,
Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of trends in vital
statistics in the United States, based on official data from the NCHS
Monthly Vital Statistics Report. Global trends are also reviewed using
published U.N. data, including the Demographic Yearbook and the
Population and Vital Statistics Report.
For a previous review for
1985, published in 1986, see 53:20091.
Correspondence: M.
E. Wegman, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor,
MI 48109-2029. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine,
Bethesda, MD.
54:30082 Al Najjar,
Sa'id; Jaluqa, Kamal. Population forecasts for the benefit
of the city of Amman. Population Bulletin of ESCWA, No. 31, Dec
1987. 45-63 pp. Baghdad, Iraq. In Eng.
The authors examine "a
number of population projections for Jordan and the city of Amman
and...the assumptions and hypotheses on which these projections were
based." The study consists of five sections. "The first part reviews
three population studies that include projections of the size of the
population of the West Bank, the city of Amman and Greater Amman. The
second part reviews the various uses of population projections in the
areas of sectoral planning, population and services. The third part
examines the effect of the inaccuracy of population forecasts on urban
problems relative to work opportunities, the labour force, land usages,
appropriate housing, infrastructural services and social services. The
fourth part analyses the difficulties faced by the researchers in
determining the different demographic factors and the degree of
uncertainty in using the different assumptions on which population
projections are based. Finally, the fifth part points out a number of
areas and recommendations that could enhance population
forecasts."
Correspondence: S. Al Najjar, Planning and
Development Department, Amman, Jordan. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30083 Botswana.
Central Statistics Office (Gaborone, Botswana). 1981
population and housing census. Population projections: 1981-2011.
Publication Series, Vol. 5, May 1987. [viii, 276] pp. Gaborone,
Botswana. In Eng.
Population projections for Botswana up to 2011
are provided based on data from the 1981 census. The assumptions made
concerning fertility, mortality, migration, and the base population are
discussed. The projections are presented separately for the country as
a whole and for individual districts.
Location: Boston
University, African Studies Library. Source: APLIC Census
Network List, No. 87, Mar 1988.
54:30084 Chile.
Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). Chile: population projections by sex and age.
The whole country, 1950-2025. [Chile: proyecciones de poblacion
por sexo y edad. Total del pais 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/CHI, No. 1,
1987. 117 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas: Santiago, Chile. In
Spa.
Population estimates and projections for Chile are presented
using data from official sources, including the 1982 census. The
quality of the available data is first reviewed, followed by an
analysis of past and probable future trends in mortality, fertility,
and migration. The projections and estimates are presented by age and
sex.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas,
Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30085 Corner, Ian
E. Household projection methods. Journal of
Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1987. 271-84 pp. New York, New
York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
"The role of household
projections as a basis for forecasts of households at [the] national
and sub-national level is discussed and a number of criteria for such
projections are outlined. The projection method used by the Department
of the Environment [in the United Kingdom] is examined in the context
of these criteria and it is concluded that it is both practical and
robust. However, it is open to criticism, first because of its failure
to make the best use of the available data and of theoretical
knowledge, and secondly because of its 'black box' nature. An
alternative two-stage strategy is developed. The first stage involves
constructing projections using a new curve-fitting method which takes
account of within cohort life-cycle headship rate changes. The second
is a method of analysing the resulting projections by modelling
transition rates between different household states. Worked examples
of both methods are presented."
Location: Rutgers
University Library, New Brunswick, NJ.
54:30086 Golini, A.;
De Simoni, A.; Ronzoni, S. Three scenarios for the
possible development of the population of Italian regions up to
2025. [Tre scenari per il possibile sviluppo della popolazione
delle regioni italiane al 2025.] Preliminary ed. 1987. [216] pp.
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla
Popolazione: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Future population trends in Italy
are examined up to 2025. Three alternative hypotheses are considered:
that current trends continue, that fertility continues to decline, and
that fertility begins to increase. The projections are presented by
five-year age group and by sex, and for the country as a whole, 8 major
regions, and 20 autonomous regions.
Correspondence:
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla
Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome, Italy. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30087 Holzer,
Jerzy Z.; Stokowski, Franciszek. Demographic projections
and socio-economic development. [Prognozowanie demograficzne a
rozwoj spoleczno-gospodarczy/Demograficheskoe prognozirovanie i
sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe razvitie.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 184,
LC 86-104792. 1985. 363 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki,
Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Eng; Rus; Pol.
These are the proceedings of an international conference on
population projections and socioeconomic development, held in Jablonna,
Poland, May 22-24, 1984. The papers are in English, Polish, and
Russian; introductory papers are in Polish and Russian; and four
session summaries are in Russian only. The first session focuses on
experiences in projecting the size, age and sex distribution, and
regional distribution of the population, with examples from Poland, the
USSR, the German Democratic Republic, and Hungary, as well as more
general studies. The second session is concerned with projections of
households and contains papers on Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The
third session analyzes the effectiveness of macro-models in making
projections. A final session examines the role of population
projections in the planning process and includes papers on Poland, the
USSR, and Hungary.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30088 Kingkade,
W. Ward. Recent and prospective population growth in the
U.S.S.R.: 1979-2025. Soviet Geography, Vol. 29, No. 4, Apr 1988.
394-412 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report presents
the results and assumptions of a set of projections of the population
of the USSR, 1979-2025. Trends in population size and age-sex
composition as well as fertility, mortality, and emigration are
discussed....The projections show that the population of the USSR will
grow throughout the period to 2025. The working age population will
grow very slowly for at least the next 10 years, and will not recapture
the rapid growth experienced in the 1970s. The pension-age population
will double in size between 1980 and 2025."
Correspondence:
W. W. Kingkade, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
54:30089 Kingkade,
W. Ward. USSR: estimates and projections of the
population, by major nationality: 1979 to 2050. CIR Staff Paper,
No. 41, May 1988. viii, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for
International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report
presents projections of the population of the USSR in 20 nationality
groups from 1979 to 2050. The groups include all 15 union republic
nationalities, the 4 largest non-union republic nationalities (as of
1979), and a residual comprising the remainder of the population."
Data are included on mortality, fertility, international migration, and
age and sex distribution. An analysis of the results and a
bibliography are included.
Correspondence: Center for
International Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C.
20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30090 Leete,
Richard; Fong, Cheng Hong; Simmons, Geoff. People: a user
friendly package for making population projections. User's
manual. Feb 1988. iv, 77 pp. Overseas Development Administration:
London, England; Economic Planning Unit: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In
Eng.
This publication, which includes an IBM-AT diskette, is a
user's manual to PEOPLE, a user-friendly, menu-driven software package
for making population projections, developed for use on IBM, Apricot,
or compatible PCs. It differs from most population projection packages
in that it is "relatively comprehensive and flexible in its
requirements for specifying the assumptions about the components of
population change....[it] can be used to obtain a national population
projection directly or through the summation of different projections
for population sub-groups....[and it] gives the user the option of a
comprehensive range of tables and charts, including comparative reports
where more than one projection has been made." The package was
originally developed for Malaysia.
Correspondence: R.
Leete, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Jalan Dato'
Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30091 Liao,
Qingying. The incidence of multiple births in China and
its significance in population projection. Population Research,
Vol. 4, No. 3, Jul 1987. 41-3 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The
author attempts to reduce errors in population projections by offering
a model for calculating multiple births more efficiently. Data are for
selected years and concern 17 provinces and municipalities in the
People's Republic of China.
This is a translation of the Chinese
article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 5, 1986.
Correspondence: Q. Liao, First People's Hospital,
Longquanyi District, Chengdu City, China. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30092 McGirr,
Nancy J.; Rutstein, Shea O. Comparison of microcomputer
programs for making population projections: an update.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1988. 173-205, 207 pp.
New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"There are many programs for making population projections now
available for use with microcomputers. This article reviews six of
approximately 15 microcomputer population projection programs. Each
program is compared to a standard set of criteria relating to such
items as hardware and software requirements, input data requirements
and specification of assumptions, methodology and documentation, and
summary output indicators. Numerical results from projections of six
test data sets reflecting different assumptions about mortality,
fertility, and migration are compared. Qualitative comments are
included for describing special features and for making an overall
assessment of each program."
Correspondence: N. J. McGirr,
IRD/Westinghouse, P.O. Box 866, Columbia, MD 21044. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30093 Pflaumer,
Peter. Methods of population projections in particular
consideration of uncertainty. [Methoden der
Bevolkerungsvorausschatzung unter besonderer Berucksichtigung der
Unsicherheit.] Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, No. 377, ISBN
3-428-06368-6. 1988. 138 pp. Duncker und Humblot: Berlin, Germany,
Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The author describes various methods
of population projection using data for the Federal Republic of
Germany. Projections to the year 2080 are presented based on official
statistics. Topics include traditional and Box-Jenkins time series
methods, the cohort-component method, stochastic population models, and
the accuracy of population projections. Particular attention is paid to
the uncertainty of population projections and to determining the extent
to which uncertainty can be quantitatively
measured.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
54:30094 Pool, Ian;
Pole, Nicholas. The Maori population to 2011: demographic
change and its implications. New Zealand Demographic Society
Technical Paper, No. 1, Dec 1987. vii, 59 pp. New Zealand Demographic
Society: Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"This Technical Report
contains the results of an analysis of the size, growth and composition
of the New Zealand Maori population between 1981 and 2011."
Consideration is given to the problems of defining ethnicity,
historical trends in Maori population dynamics since 1800, and the
policy implications of probable future growth
patterns.
Correspondence: New Zealand Demographic Society,
P.O. Box 225, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30095 Rotariu,
Traian. The influence of fertility on Romania's population
evolution. [Influenta fertilitatii asupra evolutiei demografice a
Romaniei.] Viitorul Social, Vol. 80, May-Jun 1987. 241-8 pp. Bucharest,
Romania. In Rum.
The author attempts to forecast probable
population trends in Romania up to the year 2085, taking into
consideration various alternative hypotheses concerning changes in
fertility and mortality. The adverse consequences of the low fertility
variant on demographic aging are noted.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
54:30096 Simek,
Miroslav. Projection of the Czechoslovak population to the
year 2010. [Projekce obyvatelstva CSSR do roku 2010.] Demografie,
Vol. 30, No. 1, 1988. 18-24 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections by age and sex up to the
year 2010, both with and without migration, are presented for
Czechoslovakia, its two constituent republics, and the Czech regions
and districts.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30097 Smith,
Stanley K.; Sincich, Terry. Stability over time in the
distribution of population forecast errors. Demography, Vol. 25,
No. 3, Aug 1988. 461-74 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"A number of
studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the
production of confidence intervals for population projections. The
critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the
distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this
article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections
for [U.S.] states for a number of time periods during the 20th century,
comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine
forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error
distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and
test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the
distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable
over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful
predictions of future forecast errors."
Correspondence: S.
K. Smith, College of Business Administration, University of Florida,
Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
54:30098 Wade, Alice
H. Social Security Area population projections:
1987. Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 51, No. 2, Feb 1988. 3-30 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The [U.S.] population projections that
underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987
Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees [are presented]. The projections
start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security
Area by age, sex, and marital status and from an estimate of existing
marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate
projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by
analyzing historical data and making three different sets of
assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death
rates."
For a previous projection, published in 1985, see 52:30139.
Correspondence: A. H. Wade, Office of the Actuary, Social
Security Administration, Washington, D.C. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPIA).
No citations in this issue.
