Volume 54 - Number 3 - Fall 1988

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

54:30067 Correas, Pilar. Spanish populations of over 5,000 inhabitants between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. [Poblaciones espanolas de mas de 5,000 habitantes entre los siglos XVII y XIX.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 6, No. 1, Mar 1988. 5-23 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Data are presented on urban centers in Spain with populations of over 5,000 in 1600, 1700, 1750, 1800, and 1850.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30068 de Saint-Moulin, Leon. An attempt to describe the population history of Zaire. [Essai d'histoire de la population du Zaire.] Zaire-Afrique, Vol. 27, No. 217, Sep 1987. 389-407 pp. Kinshasa, Zaire. In Fre.
Population trends in Zaire since 1880 are analyzed. Consideration is given to regional and subregional differences in population development from 1938 to 1984. Data are from a variety of official sources, including the 1984 census.
Correspondence: L. de Saint-Moulin, Faculte de Theologie, Universite de Kinshasa, BP 127, Kinshasa XI, Zaire. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:30069 Luna Rodrigo, Gloria. The urban population of Spain, 1860-1930. [La poblacion urbana en Espana, 1860-1930.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 6, No. 1, Mar 1988. 25-68 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Estimates of the urban population of Spain are provided for selected years from 1860-1930. The data are presented by province and are from official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30070 Snow, Dean R.; Lanphear, Kim M. European contact and Indian depopulation in the Northeast: the timing of the first epidemics. Ethnohistory, Vol. 35, No. 1, Winter 1988. 15-33 pp. Durham, North Carolina. In Eng.
"In order to estimate prehistoric Indian population sizes in the New World, it is first necessary to gain a better understanding of the demographic effects of European-introduced diseases. To that end we have reexamined the timing of the first introduction of these diseases into one region, the [northeastern United States]. A careful reexamination of the ethnohistoric record combined with a study of the history and process of smallpox has led us to conclude that this and other such diseases did not enter the Northeast until the seventeenth century, long after the well-documented initial epidemics of the Caribbean and Mexico. Reasons for the lag are suggested."
Correspondence: D. R. Snow, State University of New York, Albany, NY 12222. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:30071 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica [INE] (Madrid, Spain). The 1591 census of Castile. The lists of population. [Censo de Castilla de 1591. Vecindarios.] ISBN 84-260-1241-8. 1984. 850 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
This publication presents a revised, corrected, and annotated version of the results of the 1591 census of Castile, which makes up the major part of present-day Spain. A commentary on the data by Annie Molinie-Bertrand is included. The data concern commoners, nobles, and clerics and are presented by province and local district.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30072 Teng, Zezhi. Song dynasty's population over one hundred million. Population Research, Vol. 4, No. 3, Jul 1987. 35-40 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
Using historical data from the twelfth and thirteenth centuries, the author notes that "the population of the Song dynasty topped one hundred million. This was not only a significant event in the history of China's population development but also [offers] historical evidence of [the] prosperity of the Chinese nation."
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 6, 1986.
Correspondence: Z. Teng, Family Planning Commission of Rongcheng County, Shandong Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30073 Wagstaff, J. M. A note on some nineteenth-century population statistics for Lebanon. British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986. 27-35 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The reliability of various estimates of Lebanon's population in the nineteenth century is assessed. The author develops the hypothesis put forward by K. H. Karpat that nineteenth- and early twentieth-century population statistics were manipulated for political purposes.
For the study by Karpat, published in 1985, see 51:30598.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

54:30074 Ali, Abdalla E. Population estimation from aerial photographs: a case study from Sudan. Geography, Vol. 73, Pt. 2, No. 319, Apr 1988. 132-6 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"Two methods of estimation of population are used for deriving population data in a suburb of Khartoum, Sudan. Aerial photos were used in conjunction with mirror stereoscopes. The results show that a population estimate with an error of less than 10 per cent can be obtained. This is an important conclusion for poor countries such as Sudan where resources allotted for population studies are scarce."
Correspondence: A. E. Ali, Department of Survey Engineering, University of Khartoum, P.O. Box 321, Khartoum, Sudan. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:30075 Cartier, Michel. Between two Chinese censuses: the sample survey of 1987. [Entre deux recensements Chinois: l'enquete par sondage de 1987.] Population, Vol. 43, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1988. 460-3 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The results of the 1987 demographic survey undertaken in China are summarized using information from published Chinese official sources. The survey's function as a clarifier of recent population trends is noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30076 Farah, Francois. Methods of indirectly estimating the number of permanent residents (actual population) from average dwelling size: Lebanon and its communities. [Methodes d'estimation de l'effectif des residents permanents (population de fait) par le biais de la dimension moyenne du logement: le Liban, ses communautes.] In: Les familles d'aujourd'hui: demographie et evolution recente des comportements familiaux. Colloque de Geneve (17-20 septembre 1984). No. 2, 1986. 401-12 pp. Association Internationale des Demographes de Langue Francaise [AIDELF]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Methods for indirectly estimating the number of permanent residents from statistics concerning average size of dwelling are described and applied to data for Lebanon. Estimations of population by major religious group are provided for Lebanon for August 31, 1983. The author notes that even though data reliability or availability may not be certain, it is still possible to estimate the number of permanent residents in a given area.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30077 Gottschalk, Helmut. Population development in West Berlin, 1986. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Berlin (West) 1986.] Berliner Statistik: Monatsschrift, Vol. 42, No. 1, 1988. 2-12 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends in West Berlin in 1986, and comparisons are made with data from earlier years. Topics covered include population growth, marriages and divorces, fertility, mortality, causes of death, internal and international migration, and population change by district. Comparative data for the German and foreign populations are provided in most cases.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30078 Jamison, Ellen; Johnson, Peter D.; Engels, Richard A. World population profile: 1987. No. WP-87, LC 87-647922. Dec 1987. vi, 74 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents summary demographic information for all the countries and territories of the world with a population of at least 5,000 in 1987. The primary source of data is the latest set of population estimates and projections prepared for each country or area by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. In most instances, comprehensive projections were made by the component method, resulting in distributions of the population by age and sex and requiring an assessment of probable future trends of fertility, mortality, and international migration....Base information comes from national censuses, surveys, vital registration systems, and related sources as provided by the individual countries and areas and stored in the International Data Base of the Center for International Research." Chapters are included on world population trends, the components of population change, fertility declines, contraceptive prevalence, and sub-Saharan Africa.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30079 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.); United States. Department of Agriculture. Economic Research Service (Washington, D.C.). Rural and rural farm population: 1987. Current Population Reports, Series P-27: Farm Population, No. 61, Jun 1988. iv, 42 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Estimates are presented of the population of the United States living in rural areas in 1987, as well as of the population living on farms. Sections are also included on fertility characteristics by marital status and farm or nonfarm residence; persons in farm occupations, 1820-1987; and poverty status by farm or nonfarm residence.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30080 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). State population and household estimates, with age, sex, and components of change: 1981-87. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1024, May 1988. iv, 83 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains provisional State estimates of the resident and civilian [U.S.] populations and of households for July 1, 1987, revised annual population and household estimates for July 1, 1981, through 1986, and components of population change for the 1980-87 period....Also shown are annual age estimates and median age of the resident population of States, 1981-87, by sex for 10-year age groups and selected broad age groups."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30081 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1986. Pediatrics, Vol. 80, No. 6, Dec 1987. 817-27 pp. Elk Grove Village, Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of trends in vital statistics in the United States, based on official data from the NCHS Monthly Vital Statistics Report. Global trends are also reviewed using published U.N. data, including the Demographic Yearbook and the Population and Vital Statistics Report.
For a previous review for 1985, published in 1986, see 53:20091.
Correspondence: M. E. Wegman, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

54:30082 Al Najjar, Sa'id; Jaluqa, Kamal. Population forecasts for the benefit of the city of Amman. Population Bulletin of ESCWA, No. 31, Dec 1987. 45-63 pp. Baghdad, Iraq. In Eng.
The authors examine "a number of population projections for Jordan and the city of Amman and...the assumptions and hypotheses on which these projections were based." The study consists of five sections. "The first part reviews three population studies that include projections of the size of the population of the West Bank, the city of Amman and Greater Amman. The second part reviews the various uses of population projections in the areas of sectoral planning, population and services. The third part examines the effect of the inaccuracy of population forecasts on urban problems relative to work opportunities, the labour force, land usages, appropriate housing, infrastructural services and social services. The fourth part analyses the difficulties faced by the researchers in determining the different demographic factors and the degree of uncertainty in using the different assumptions on which population projections are based. Finally, the fifth part points out a number of areas and recommendations that could enhance population forecasts."
Correspondence: S. Al Najjar, Planning and Development Department, Amman, Jordan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30083 Botswana. Central Statistics Office (Gaborone, Botswana). 1981 population and housing census. Population projections: 1981-2011. Publication Series, Vol. 5, May 1987. [viii, 276] pp. Gaborone, Botswana. In Eng.
Population projections for Botswana up to 2011 are provided based on data from the 1981 census. The assumptions made concerning fertility, mortality, migration, and the base population are discussed. The projections are presented separately for the country as a whole and for individual districts.
Location: Boston University, African Studies Library. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 87, Mar 1988.

54:30084 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Chile: population projections by sex and age. The whole country, 1950-2025. [Chile: proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad. Total del pais 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/CHI, No. 1, 1987. 117 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections for Chile are presented using data from official sources, including the 1982 census. The quality of the available data is first reviewed, followed by an analysis of past and probable future trends in mortality, fertility, and migration. The projections and estimates are presented by age and sex.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30085 Corner, Ian E. Household projection methods. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1987. 271-84 pp. New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
"The role of household projections as a basis for forecasts of households at [the] national and sub-national level is discussed and a number of criteria for such projections are outlined. The projection method used by the Department of the Environment [in the United Kingdom] is examined in the context of these criteria and it is concluded that it is both practical and robust. However, it is open to criticism, first because of its failure to make the best use of the available data and of theoretical knowledge, and secondly because of its 'black box' nature. An alternative two-stage strategy is developed. The first stage involves constructing projections using a new curve-fitting method which takes account of within cohort life-cycle headship rate changes. The second is a method of analysing the resulting projections by modelling transition rates between different household states. Worked examples of both methods are presented."
Location: Rutgers University Library, New Brunswick, NJ.

54:30086 Golini, A.; De Simoni, A.; Ronzoni, S. Three scenarios for the possible development of the population of Italian regions up to 2025. [Tre scenari per il possibile sviluppo della popolazione delle regioni italiane al 2025.] Preliminary ed. 1987. [216] pp. Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione: Rome, Italy. In Ita.
Future population trends in Italy are examined up to 2025. Three alternative hypotheses are considered: that current trends continue, that fertility continues to decline, and that fertility begins to increase. The projections are presented by five-year age group and by sex, and for the country as a whole, 8 major regions, and 20 autonomous regions.
Correspondence: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Viale Beethoven 56, 00144 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30087 Holzer, Jerzy Z.; Stokowski, Franciszek. Demographic projections and socio-economic development. [Prognozowanie demograficzne a rozwoj spoleczno-gospodarczy/Demograficheskoe prognozirovanie i sotsial'no-ekonomicheskoe razvitie.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 184, LC 86-104792. 1985. 363 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Eng; Rus; Pol.
These are the proceedings of an international conference on population projections and socioeconomic development, held in Jablonna, Poland, May 22-24, 1984. The papers are in English, Polish, and Russian; introductory papers are in Polish and Russian; and four session summaries are in Russian only. The first session focuses on experiences in projecting the size, age and sex distribution, and regional distribution of the population, with examples from Poland, the USSR, the German Democratic Republic, and Hungary, as well as more general studies. The second session is concerned with projections of households and contains papers on Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The third session analyzes the effectiveness of macro-models in making projections. A final session examines the role of population projections in the planning process and includes papers on Poland, the USSR, and Hungary.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30088 Kingkade, W. Ward. Recent and prospective population growth in the U.S.S.R.: 1979-2025. Soviet Geography, Vol. 29, No. 4, Apr 1988. 394-412 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report presents the results and assumptions of a set of projections of the population of the USSR, 1979-2025. Trends in population size and age-sex composition as well as fertility, mortality, and emigration are discussed....The projections show that the population of the USSR will grow throughout the period to 2025. The working age population will grow very slowly for at least the next 10 years, and will not recapture the rapid growth experienced in the 1970s. The pension-age population will double in size between 1980 and 2025."
Correspondence: W. W. Kingkade, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:30089 Kingkade, W. Ward. USSR: estimates and projections of the population, by major nationality: 1979 to 2050. CIR Staff Paper, No. 41, May 1988. viii, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents projections of the population of the USSR in 20 nationality groups from 1979 to 2050. The groups include all 15 union republic nationalities, the 4 largest non-union republic nationalities (as of 1979), and a residual comprising the remainder of the population." Data are included on mortality, fertility, international migration, and age and sex distribution. An analysis of the results and a bibliography are included.
Correspondence: Center for International Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30090 Leete, Richard; Fong, Cheng Hong; Simmons, Geoff. People: a user friendly package for making population projections. User's manual. Feb 1988. iv, 77 pp. Overseas Development Administration: London, England; Economic Planning Unit: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng.
This publication, which includes an IBM-AT diskette, is a user's manual to PEOPLE, a user-friendly, menu-driven software package for making population projections, developed for use on IBM, Apricot, or compatible PCs. It differs from most population projection packages in that it is "relatively comprehensive and flexible in its requirements for specifying the assumptions about the components of population change....[it] can be used to obtain a national population projection directly or through the summation of different projections for population sub-groups....[and it] gives the user the option of a comprehensive range of tables and charts, including comparative reports where more than one projection has been made." The package was originally developed for Malaysia.
Correspondence: R. Leete, Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister's Department, Jalan Dato' Onn, 50502 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30091 Liao, Qingying. The incidence of multiple births in China and its significance in population projection. Population Research, Vol. 4, No. 3, Jul 1987. 41-3 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author attempts to reduce errors in population projections by offering a model for calculating multiple births more efficiently. Data are for selected years and concern 17 provinces and municipalities in the People's Republic of China.
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 5, 1986.
Correspondence: Q. Liao, First People's Hospital, Longquanyi District, Chengdu City, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30092 McGirr, Nancy J.; Rutstein, Shea O. Comparison of microcomputer programs for making population projections: an update. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1988. 173-205, 207 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"There are many programs for making population projections now available for use with microcomputers. This article reviews six of approximately 15 microcomputer population projection programs. Each program is compared to a standard set of criteria relating to such items as hardware and software requirements, input data requirements and specification of assumptions, methodology and documentation, and summary output indicators. Numerical results from projections of six test data sets reflecting different assumptions about mortality, fertility, and migration are compared. Qualitative comments are included for describing special features and for making an overall assessment of each program."
Correspondence: N. J. McGirr, IRD/Westinghouse, P.O. Box 866, Columbia, MD 21044. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30093 Pflaumer, Peter. Methods of population projections in particular consideration of uncertainty. [Methoden der Bevolkerungsvorausschatzung unter besonderer Berucksichtigung der Unsicherheit.] Volkswirtschaftliche Schriften, No. 377, ISBN 3-428-06368-6. 1988. 138 pp. Duncker und Humblot: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The author describes various methods of population projection using data for the Federal Republic of Germany. Projections to the year 2080 are presented based on official statistics. Topics include traditional and Box-Jenkins time series methods, the cohort-component method, stochastic population models, and the accuracy of population projections. Particular attention is paid to the uncertainty of population projections and to determining the extent to which uncertainty can be quantitatively measured.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30094 Pool, Ian; Pole, Nicholas. The Maori population to 2011: demographic change and its implications. New Zealand Demographic Society Technical Paper, No. 1, Dec 1987. vii, 59 pp. New Zealand Demographic Society: Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"This Technical Report contains the results of an analysis of the size, growth and composition of the New Zealand Maori population between 1981 and 2011." Consideration is given to the problems of defining ethnicity, historical trends in Maori population dynamics since 1800, and the policy implications of probable future growth patterns.
Correspondence: New Zealand Demographic Society, P.O. Box 225, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30095 Rotariu, Traian. The influence of fertility on Romania's population evolution. [Influenta fertilitatii asupra evolutiei demografice a Romaniei.] Viitorul Social, Vol. 80, May-Jun 1987. 241-8 pp. Bucharest, Romania. In Rum.
The author attempts to forecast probable population trends in Romania up to the year 2085, taking into consideration various alternative hypotheses concerning changes in fertility and mortality. The adverse consequences of the low fertility variant on demographic aging are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30096 Simek, Miroslav. Projection of the Czechoslovak population to the year 2010. [Projekce obyvatelstva CSSR do roku 2010.] Demografie, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1988. 18-24 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections by age and sex up to the year 2010, both with and without migration, are presented for Czechoslovakia, its two constituent republics, and the Czech regions and districts.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30097 Smith, Stanley K.; Sincich, Terry. Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 3, Aug 1988. 461-74 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for [U.S.] states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors."
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, College of Business Administration, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30098 Wade, Alice H. Social Security Area population projections: 1987. Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 51, No. 2, Feb 1988. 3-30 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The [U.S.] population projections that underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees [are presented]. The projections start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and marital status and from an estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by analyzing historical data and making three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates."
For a previous projection, published in 1985, see 52:30139.
Correspondence: A. H. Wade, Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration, Washington, D.C. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

No citations in this issue.


Copyright © 1988-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.