Volume 54 - Number 2 - Summer 1988

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

54:20077 Benedict, Philip. The Protestant population of France from 1600 to 1685. [La population reformee francaise de 1600 a 1685.] Annales: Economies, Societes, Civilisations, Vol. 42, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1987. 1,433-65, 1,469 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"Census or parish register information regarding 92 Reformed [Protestant] congregations is used to estimate and account for changes in the size of France's Huguenot minority between the Edict of Nantes and its Revocation. The findings suggest a gradual though irregular decline in the ranks of the community, with significant urban-rural and regional variations. The causes of the decline appear to have been multiple, including high urban mortality rates, demographic stagnation in certain regions of Protestant strength and wartime losses incurred during the revolts of the 1620s as well as conversions to Catholicism."
Correspondence: P. Benedict, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20078 Biraben, Jean-Noel; Levy, Claude. Prehistorical population of France: a calculation using the Peyrony method. [La population prehistorique de la France: essai de calcul par la methode de Peyrony.] Population, Vol. 42, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1987. 999-1,003 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors use the method of estimating historical populations developed by Denis Peyrony to provide estimates of the population of France for various prehistoric periods in time. Problems concerning both the data and the method are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20079 Gooszen, A. J. Population statistics and colonial domination, Indonesia in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. [Bevolkingsstatistiek en koloniaal bewind, Indonesie in de 19e en 20e eeuw.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Dec 1987. 1-22 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This article describes a number of historical-demographical sources on the native population of the Indonesian archipelago in the 19th and 20th centuries. After a short introduction describing the findings of a number of authors on the growth of the indigenous population, various sources are described. Attention is paid to the relationship between the intensity of colonial domination and the method of data-collecting. The conclusion briefly reviews the usefulness of the material for an analysis of population growth, differentiated by time and space."
Correspondence: A. J. Gooszen, Nederlands Interuniversitair Demografisch Instituut, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20080 Ladogorski, Tadeusz. Some observations concerning the population of Polish lands in antiquity and the Middle Ages. [Uwagi o zaludnieniu ziem polskich w starozytnosci i sredniowieczu.] Przeszlosc Demograficzna Polski, Vol. 17, 1987. 13-56 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Ger.
The author presents a critical overview of scientific literature concerning the population of the Polish territories in antiquity, during the migration of the Slavs, and during the times of Boleslaus the Brave. The focus is on the work of Lowmianski and on archeological investigations that have yielded information on population size, density, and type of settlement. Data from the various sources are compared.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20081 Mattmuller, Markus; Kurmann, Fridolin; Schluchter, Andre. The demographic history of Switzerland. Part I: early modern times, 1500-1700. [Bevolkerungsgeschichte der Schweiz. Teil I: Die fruhe Neuzeit, 1500-1700.] Basler Beitrage zur Geschichtswissenschaft, Vol. 154, ISBN 3-7190-0970-X. 1987. xxii, 735 pp. Helbing und Lichtenhahn: Basel, Switzerland. In Ger.
The author analyzes trends in population growth in Switzerland from 1500 to 1700. The present volume begins with a general discussion of population trends; a case study of Lausanne, including the use of economic models; and a discussion of data sources. A study of individual territories, rural areas, and cities follows. Attention is then given to events that check population growth, such as plague, famine, and migration. Retrospective estimates of growth are provided, and demographic and economic aspects are explored.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:20082 Meffert, Peter R. The population and rural economy of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. Pub. Order No. DA8720417. 1987. 910 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Population developments in the Kazakh Republic of the USSR over the past 100 years are analyzed. The focus is on the changing ethnic composition of the Kazakh SSR over time and on the relationship between agricultural development and demographic trends. The author notes that the number of ethnic Russians has declined since the 1950s, the rate of natural increase of the Kazakhs has risen, and the importance of the Republic for the rural economy of the USSR as a whole has increased.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Stanford University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 48(6).

54:20083 Rybakovskii, L. L. Demographic development in the USSR in the past 70 years. [Demograficheskoe razvitie SSSR za 70 let.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1987. 3-10 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
A broad review of population growth over the history of the USSR is presented. Special attention is paid to population losses during the two world wars and the civil war following the 1917 October Revolution and to their impact on sex distribution, age distribution, health conditions, and reduced fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

54:20084 Ales, Milan. Population development in Czechoslovakia in 1986. Demosta, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1987. 9-12 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Eng.
Demographic trends in Czechoslovakia in 1986 are reviewed. Data are provided separately for the two constituent republics on natural increase, marriage and divorce, induced abortion, mortality and life expectancy, and infant and neonatal mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20085 Canada. Statistics Canada (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual estimates of population by marital status, age, sex, and components of growth for Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1986. [Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population suivant l'etat matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de l'accroissement, Canada, provinces et territoires au 1er juin 1986.] 4th ed. Vol. 4, Pub. Order No. 91-210. Mar 1987. 106 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Population estimates for Canada for 1986 are presented, based on data from the 1981 census. Data are included for 1985 and 1986 and for selected earlier years on age distribution, marital status, sex distribution, internal migration, undernumeration, fertility, mortality, and international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20086 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas [INSIE] (Havana, Cuba). Population by province, municipality, and urban and rural zones, by sex and age group, on December 31, 1986. Provincial and municipal estimates of the working-age population. [Poblacion por provincias, municipios y zonas urbana y rural, segun sexos y grupos de edades, al 31 de diciembre de 1986. Estimaciones provinciales y municipales de la poblacion en edad laboral.] Estudios y Datos sobre la Poblacion Cubana Publicacion, No. 16, May 1987. xix, 217 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This annual publication contains information on the resident population of Cuba on December 31, 1986, at the national, provincial, and municipal levels. Data are included on population by age group, sex, and urban or rural area. In addition, the publication contains municipal and provincial estimates of the working-age population by sex, urban or rural area, and age group, as well as estimates for Cuba and its provinces of the mean population by age group, sex, and urban or rural area.
For the 1983 edition, published in 1984, see 50:40071.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20087 de Beer, J. Demographic estimates for 1987. [Demografische ramingen voor 1987.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 12, Dec 1987. 14-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates are provided for the Netherlands for 1987 based on official monthly data on births, deaths, and international migration for the first seven months of the year. It is indicated that the rate of population growth will increase due to an increase in immigration and fertility as well as a decline in emigration and mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20088 de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. Population estimates by French department between two censuses. [Estimations de population par departement en France entre deux recensements.] Population, Vol. 42, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1987. 881-909 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Estimates of the population of each French department for the years between the 1975 and 1982 censuses are presented, based on data concerning natural increase and estimates of net migration. The results are compared with the 1982 census results, and the observed differences are discussed. Consideration is next given to the application of methods developed in the United States to the available French data. "The method chosen consisted of estimating total migration from school enrolment data. It was assumed that the relation between school enrolment and total migration observed during the previous intercensal period remained unchanged in each departement, and net migration is then estimated. Applying this method to all French departements for the period 1975-82 tended to produce more accurate results than the old method."
Correspondence: C. de Guibert-Lantoine, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20089 Gatrell, A. C. Population distribution on the Isle of Man: the 1986 census. Geography, Vol. 72, Pt. 3, No. 316, Jun 1987. 252-4 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
These are the results of a census conducted in the Isle of Man in 1986. Data are provided on spatial distribution and age and sex structure.
Correspondence: A. C. Gatrell, University of Lancaster, Lancaster LA1 4YW, England. Location: New York Public Library.

54:20090 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Re-estimates of population by age and sex and vital rates in postwar Japan. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 238, Oct 1, 1985. iv, 207 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
This publication provides revised estimates of age and sex distribution and vital rates for Japan from 1947 to 1984. Problems related to the presentation of such estimates are considered, with particular reference to the selection of the appropriate denominator population. Life tables based on these revised estimates are included. The main problem involved in preparing the revised estimates was lack of data on international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20091 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1986. Population Estimates Series, No. 58, [1987]. 85 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates for Japan for 1986 are presented by age and sex, by prefecture and sex, and by five-year age group and sex for prefectures.
For a previous report in this series, published in 1985, see 52:10118.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20092 Liu, Zheng. The age structure and sex ratio of China's population in 1982. Population Research, Vol. 3, No. 3, Jul 1986. 11-5, 49 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
Revised estimates of the age and sex distribution of the population of China are presented. The estimates are based on data from the 1982 census and also take into account available data concerning military personnel.
This is a translation of the Chinese article published in 1985 and cited in 54:10825.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20093 Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (New York, New York). Population slowdown in the United States. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 69, No. 2, Apr-Jun 1988. 27-34 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Recent population trends in the United States are summarized using data from official sources. Consideration is given to mortality, age distribution, regional changes, and the effect of changing economic conditions.
Correspondence: Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20094 Short, Kathleen. Indonesia: an overview of selected socioeconomic subjects. CIR Staff Paper, No. 39, Apr 1988. vii, 60, 3 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research, Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania Branch: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is an overview of current and projected demographic and socioeconomic developments in Indonesia based on official data. Particular attention is given to the group aged 15-24 and its impact on internal migration, social, labor force, economic, and political trends. A large number of related tables are provided in the appendix.
Correspondence: Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania Branch, CIR, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20095 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projections, 1950-2025. [America Latina: proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 20, No. 40; LC/DEM/G.58, Jul 1987. 144 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
This publication contains population estimates and projections for Latin America by sex and five-year age group for the period 1950-2025, along with selected demographic indicators for five-year periods between 1950-1955 and 2020-2025. The data are for Latin America as a whole, selected regions, and 20 individual countries.
Correspondence: CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20096 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York); International Labour Office [ILO] (Geneva, Switzerland); Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO] (Rome, Italy). World demographic estimates and projections, 1950-2025: total population, school-age population, economically active population, agricultural and non-agricultural population, urban and rural population. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/79, 1988. vii, 386 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
This is a joint report by several U.N. agencies; it contains demographic estimates and projections for the period 1950-2025. The data are presented for individual countries with populations over 300,000, 24 regions, and 8 major areas. Data are included on agricultural population, rural and urban population, population density, school-age population, sex ratio, median age, birth rate, death rate, total fertility rate, life expectancy, infant mortality, economic activity, and rate of population growth.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20097 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1009, Jul 1987. 7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980, to 1986 for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands of the United States, American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Census counts for 1980 are also shown for each of the areas."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20098 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of the United States to February 1, 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1021, Mar 1988. 2 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The total population of the United States (including Armed Forces overseas) was estimated to be approximately 245,243,000 on February 1, 1988....This report presents estimates for months back to April 1, 1980, of the (1) total population including Armed Forces overseas, (2) resident population, and (3) civilian population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20099 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). South: 1986 population and 1985 per capita income estimates for counties and incorporated places. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population Estimates, No. 86-S-SC, Mar 1988. iii, 115 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report is one of five regional reports containing current [U.S.] population estimates for July 1, 1986, and estimates of per capita income for calendar year 1985 for all general purpose governmental units in each State....The detailed tables show the July 1, 1986, population estimate and the April 1, 1980, census population for each area, along with the numerical and percent change between 1980 and 1986. In addition, they present the 1985 per capita money income estimates, together with the 1979 per capita money income and the percent change between these two figures."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20100 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). United States population estimates, by age, sex, and race: 1980 to 1987. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1022, Mar 1988. iii, 64 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population of the United States by single years of age, sex, and race for each year from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1987; comparable census figures are also shown for April 1, 1980. Estimates are shown for the total population including Armed Forces overseas, the resident population, and the civilian population."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20101 Venezuela. Oficina Central de Estadistica e Informatica (Caracas, Venezuela). Population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] ISBN 980-280-006-6. [1985]. xxxi, 270 pp. Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
This volume contains population estimates for Venezuela for the period 1950-1980 and projections for the period 1980-2025. The data are presented by federal district and for the rural and urban populations separately. Labor force projections are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20102 Yacher, Leon. Peru: the 1981 census. Geography, Vol. 72, Pt. 1, No. 314, Jan 1987. 68-71 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
This is a summary of the final results from the 1981 census of Peru. The data concern population by department for 1972 and 1981.
Correspondence: L. Yacher, Southern Connecticut State University, 501 Crescent Street, New Haven, CT 06515. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

54:20103 Ahlburg, Dennis A. Population forecasts for South Pacific nations using autoregressive models, 1985-2000. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 4, No. 2, Nov 1987. 157-67 pp. Carlton South, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper uses an autoregressive statistical model to forecast population for Fiji, Western Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and compares these forecasts with those obtained from other methods. The growth rate of population is predicted to continue to fall in Fiji and Tonga, rise a little for Western Samoa, and rise considerably in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The implications of the forecasts for recent government development plans are also discussed."
Correspondence: D. A. Ahlburg, Industrial Relations Center, University of Minnesota, 271 19th Avenue S., Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20104 Atoh, Makato; Ikenoue, Masako. On the reliability of population projections. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 182, Apr 1987. 56-61 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
An attempt is made to analyze the accuracy of the official population projections of Japan. The emphasis is on applying methodology developed by Nathan Keyfitz to projections that have been prepared using 1986 census data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20105 Birg, Herwig; Koch, Helmut. Population decline in the Federal Republic of Germany: long-term population forecasts based on demographic cohort models and the theory of individual fertility. [Der Bevolkerungsruckgang in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: langfristige Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen auf der Grundlage des demographischen Kohortenmodells und der biographischen Theorie der fertilitat.] Forschungsberichte des Instituts fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik (IBS), Universitat Bielefeld, Vol. 13, ISBN 3-593-33872-6. 1987. 213 pp. Campus: New York, New York/Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
A biographic theory of fertility, used in population projections for developed countries, is applied to data for the Federal Republic of Germany. The authors first describe the models and methodological basis for the theory. In a section on trends in fertility, they provide period and cohort measures of fertility, a statistical analysis of reproductive behavior, and an examination of economic and demographic variables pertinent to the biographic theory. A section on mortality is concerned with cohort- and period-specific trends and projects mortality figures for the total and foreign population. In a section on immigration, the authors examine policy and projected rates of migration for German citizens and for foreigners. Excess mortality, the relationship between age structure and net reproduction rate, and implications of a declining population are also considered.
Location: New York Public Library.

54:20106 Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. From the twentieth to the twenty-first century: Europe and its population after the year 2000. [Du XXe au XXIe siecle: l'Europe et sa population apres l'an 2000.] Population, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1988. 9-43 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Various scenarios concerning the future of Europe's populations are described and compared. Current data and projections are also presented for both developed and developing countries. Among the alternatives to the demographic transition model described are U.N. projections involving a turnaround in the fertility decline, a theoretical model of the final stages of the transition in which birth rates remain below replacement level, and a "catastrophic" scenario that leads to the ultimate disappearance of the population. The author "then imagines a new demographic transition in which biologists have succeeded in extending the duration of a woman's reproductive life. They could then engage in two fertile unions during their lifetime, and so save the species."
Correspondence: J. Bourgeois-Pichat, CICRED, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20107 Csernak, Jozsefne; Szabo, Kalman. Family and household projections, 1981-2001. [A csaladok es haztartasok eloreszamitasa, 1981-2001.] Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet Kozlemenyei, No. 59, LC 86-166603. 1985. 125 pp. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet: Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
This publication contains a series of family and household projections for Hungary up to the year 2001.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:20108 Denton, Frank T.; Spencer, Byron G. Changes in the Canadian population and labour force: prospects and implications. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1987. 187-208 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper provides projections of the Canadian population and labour force, and places the projections in historical context. The implications of future demographic changes for the labour force, the macro-economy, and particular industries and occupations are given special attention." The projections are for five-year intervals for the period 1986-2036.
Correspondence: F. T. Denton, Department of Economics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20109 Hibert, Therese. Summary of the Eighth National Demography Colloquium: demographic projections. [Compte rendu du VIIIe Colloque national de demographie: les projections demographiques.] Population, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1988. 151-60 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an overview of the major themes of a colloquium on demographic projection that was held May 5-7, 1987, in Grenoble, France, and was sponsored by the Centre National de Recherches Scientifiques and the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques. Attention is given to ideologies underlying projections, demographic theories and analysis as a basis for forecasts, the persistence of selected demographic trends, the choice among projected scenarios, limitations and uncertainty, areas of anticipated improvement, the usefulness of projections, and demography and planning.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20110 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Household projections for Japan: 1985-2025. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 249, Nov 10, 1987. vi, 102 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Household projections for Japan are presented up to the year 2025. The projections were prepared using the household ratio method.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, 2-2, 1-Chome, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20111 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). New future population projections for Japan. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 181, Jan 1987. 54-63 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections for Japan by sex and age are presented up to 2025 using data from the 1985 census. Provisional estimates up to 2085 are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20112 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections by prefectures: 1985-2025. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 247, Mar 1, 1987. 121 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections to the year 2025 are presented for the prefectures of Japan by age and sex.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, 2-2, 1-Chome, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20113 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections for Japan: 1985-2085. Institute of Population Problems Research Series, No. 244, Feb 1, 1987. 133 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented by age and sex for Japan up to the year 2085, based on data from the 1985 census. Data are also included on projected trends in fertility, life expectancy, and life tables. Some comparative data are offered for selected developed countries.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, 2-2, 1-Chome, Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20114 Kaneko, Takeharu; Mita, Fusami; Inaba, Hisashi. Population projections by prefectures: 1985-2025. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 182, Apr 1987. 70-8 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
The methodology used to prepare population projections for Japan by prefecture up to 2025 is described. The basic method used is the cohort approach.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20115 Kayani, Ashraf K. Evaluation of international population projections: lessons and experiences. Genus, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1987. 141-50 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The present paper attempts to evaluate the population projections prepared by the United Nations at different points of time. Projections prepared recently fare better than those prepared in the distant past. Short-term projections are found to be relatively accurate and less sensitive to the correctness of the assumed fertility and mortality schedules. On the contrary, long term projections are understandably sensitive to all factors used in projections. The important factors in the projections are found to be in the order of base population, balance of birth and death rates (growth rate), fertility and mortality schedule. Migration is not considered in our study."
Correspondence: A. K. Kayani, College of Allied Medical Sciences, King Saud University, POB 2454, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20116 Long, John F.; McMillen, David B. A survey of Census Bureau population projection methods. Climatic Change, Vol. 11, No. 1-2, 1987. 141-77 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Population projections methods of the U.S. Census Bureau draw upon several different traditions of forecasting: demographic accounting, judgmental, time series, deterministic, and explanatory. This paper reviews each of the forecasting traditions in population projections, describes the U.S. Census Bureau's current methods for national and state population projections, and proposes new hybrid approaches such as demographic-time series methods for national fertility projections and economic-demographic methods for state migration projections. Throughout the article, possible parallels with forecasting in other disciplines are noted."
Correspondence: J. F. Long, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:20117 McGirr, Nancy J.; Rutstein, Shea O. Six microcomputer programs for population projection: an evaluation. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol. 1, No. 5, Nov 1987. 9-17, 22-8 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"This article evaluates six microcomputer-based projection programs according to common criteria after running all the programs with standard data sets." The programs are ones developed for use by Westinghouse, the Population Council, the World Bank, CELADE, the Futures Group, and ESCAP. Information is also included on other microcomputer software for demographic applications.
Correspondence: N. McGirr, Institute for Resource Development, Westinghouse, Columbia, MD 21044. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20118 Mode, C. J.; Pickens, G. T.; Ewbank, D. C. Demographic heterogeneity and uncertainty in population projections. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1987. 223-36 pp. New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Recent developments in a class of stochastic population processes were used to study the impact of demographic heterogeneity on the uncertainty of population projections. Selected for study by computer simulation were population projections for East Africa designed to quantify opinions regarding expected fertility and mortality declines. Since both fertility and mortality declined in these projections, their laws of evolution may be described as time inhomogeneous. The computer simulation studies reported in this paper strongly suggest that randomized laws of evolution should be taken into account in further developments of population projection methodologies designed formally and computationally to accommodate uncertainty. Variability in fecundability, the kind of demographic heterogeneity studied in this paper, is only one aspect of these randomized laws."
Correspondence: C. J. Mode, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:20119 Pflaumer, Peter. Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods. International Journal of Forecasting, No. 4, 1988. 135-42 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting human populations by letting the fertility and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care. Considering the results of the model for the U.S. in 2082, for example, it is shown that the population will number between 255 million and 355 million with a probability of 90 percent."
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, University of Dortmund, D-4600 Dortmund 50, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20120 Steshenko, V. S. On issues concerning the methodology of long-term population forecasting (a global aspect). [K voprosu o metodologii dolgosrochnogo demograficheskogo prognozirovaniya (global'nyi aspekt).] Demograficheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 11, 1987. 3-13 pp. Kiev, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
Theoretical and methodological issues involved in population forecasting are investigated. The interrelationship between population forecasting and population policy is explored. The author encourages the use of historical models of population reproduction as an alternative to demographic transition theory in forecasting population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20121 Sztesenko, V. S.; Piszkunov, V. P. Some methodological problems of long-term demographic projection (a global perspective). [A hosszu tavu demografiai elorejelzes nehany modszertani problemaja (globalis megvilagitas).] Demografia, Vol. 29, No. 1, 1986. 55-63 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
A general study on the problems associated with making long-term population projections is presented. The geographical focus is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20122 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of households, for counties: July 1, 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-23: Special Studies, No. 156, Mar 1988. iii, 70 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of households for 3,138 counties and county equivalents in the United States as of July 1, 1985. County equivalents include census areas and boroughs in Alaska, parishes in Louisiana, the District of Columbia, and independent cities in Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20123 Zachariah, K. C.; Vu, My T. World population projections, 1987-88 edition. Short- and long-term estimates. ISBN 0-8018-3673-5. LC 87-35248. 1988. lvi, 439 pp. Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland/London, England; World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is the tenth in a series of population projections prepared by the World Bank and the third to be published separately. The introduction summarizes the methodology and assumptions and also "presents a brief history of the Bank's projections, delineates the sources of the principal data used, compares the Bank's estimates with those of the United Nations and other organizations, and provides summary demographic information on the new country groupings (by World Bank operational region and department) created by the recent reorganization of the Bank." The projections are given by age group and sex for five-year intervals up to the year 2030 for countries and regions.
For previous projections by My T. Vu, published in 1985, see 52:10141.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

54:20124 Bidegain Greising, Gabriel. Democracy and demographic transition. [Democracia y transicion demografica.] SIC, Vol. 50, No. 500, Dec 1987. 464-7 pp. Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
The causes and socioeconomic implications of the rapid increase in Venezuela's population between 1950 and 1981 are investigated. Trends examined include population growth, fertility and the birth rate, adolescent fertility, differential mortality, spatial distribution and urbanization, and international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20125 Krishnan, Vasantha. Population change in rural towns and less densely settled rural areas 1981-86. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 13, No. 2, Nov 1987. 17-26 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
Population trends between 1981 and 1986 in small rural towns and less densely settled rural areas in New Zealand are investigated using census data. "The analyses show that while the number of people in both rural towns and less densely settled rural areas has been growing, the rate of growth has been considerably higher in rural towns. These national trends, however, have not occurred uniformly throughout the country." Maps showing regional variations are included.
Correspondence: V. Krishnan, Social Reporting Section, Department of Statistics, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20126 Kvasha, A. Ya. Optimal type of population growth: means and prospects of its achievement. [Optimal'nyi tip vosproizvodstva naseleniya: puti i perspektivy ego dostizheniya.] In: Demograficheskoe razvitie v SSSR, edited by L. L. Rybakovskii. Demografiya: Problemy i Perspektivy, 1985. 94-108 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author defines an optimal population growth pattern for the USSR and explores the means and prospects for its achievement. Consideration is given to regional differences in population dynamics. The need for regional population policies to help correct unfavorable demographic characteristics is noted.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:20127 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS] (London, England). Editorial: a review of 1986. Population Trends, No. 50, Winter 1987. 1-12 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This review summarises recent changes in the population size and composition of England and Wales, placing particular emphasis on changes between 1985 and 1986." Separate consideration is given to mortality, marriage and divorce, fertility, and migration.
Correspondence: OPCS, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20128 Vasil'eva, E. K.; Eliseeva, I. I.; Kashina, O. N.; Laptev, V. I. Population dynamics in the USSR, 1960-1980. [Dinamika naseleniya SSSR, 1960-1980 gg.] LC 86-155487. 1985. 176 pp. Finansy i Statistika: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The authors analyze quantitative and qualitative changes in population in the USSR during the period 1960-1980. Characteristics examined include employment, educational attainment, family welfare, ethnic composition, and changes in age and sex distribution. Data are primarily from national population censuses and official statistics.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).


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