Volume 54 - Number 1 - Spring 1988

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

54:10789 Kephart, George. Heterogeneity and the implied dynamics of regional growth rates: was the nonmetropolitan turnaround an artifact of aggregation? Demography, Vol. 25, No. 1, Feb 1988. 99-113 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to [U.S.] nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround."
Correspondence: G. Kephart, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10790 Mishra, Pradeep. An open problem in Kendall's population model. Sankhya: Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B, Vol. 49, No. 1, Apr 1987. 68-77 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
"In this paper an open problem by Kendall (1949, 1977) in his population model has been solved. The problem has also been studied in a model which has been modified by the author and made more general." The author's modifications involve the use of alternative marriage rates per unit of time.
Correspondence: P. Mishra, Patna University, Patna 800 005, Bihar State, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10791 Pollak, Robert A. The two-sex problem with persistent unions: a generalization of the birth matrix-mating rule model. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 32, No. 2, Oct 1987. 176-87 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The birth matrix-mating rule (BMMR) model, previously developed by the author to solve the two-sex problem of classical stable population theory by allowing births to adjust to changes in a population's age-sex composition, is generalized in this paper to species that form persistent unions. The existence of equilibrium in the BMMR persistent unions model is established by supplementing the existence proof used in the BMMR model with a fixed-point argument.
Correspondence: R. A. Pollak, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10792 Shen, Jianfa. Estimating the error of random projection of discrete populations. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 6, Nov 29, 1985. 51-2 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author estimates the error of stochastic projection of discrete populations by defining fertility and mortality as stochastic processes. Using Chebyshev's inequality and data for Huzhou City's population, the author estimates random fluctuations of fertility and mortality and develops an equation for estimating the relative error of projection of total population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10793 Vaupel, James W.; Gambill, Bradley A.; Yashin, Anatoli I. Thousands of data at a glance: shaded contour maps of demographic surfaces. IIASA Research Report, No. RR-87-16, ISBN 3-7045-0079-8. Jul 1987. xvi, 80 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This research report presents a bouquet of contour maps to suggest the broad potential of their use in demographic studies. The maps presented range from maps of Italian mortality, French population levels, and U.S. birth rates, to maps of Coale and Demeny's and Brass's model life tables. The value of the maps lies in their substantive import: by giving demographers visual access to population surfaces, the maps can help demographers uncover and understand population patterns. The text of the research report adumbrates some of these patterns and discusses the use of contour maps in exploratory data analyses and model building, including the use of maps of residuals in fitting models to data."
Correspondence: J. W. Vaupel, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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