F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

54:10233 Ahmed, Ferial A. El-K. Fertility transition in Egypt. Pub. Order No. DA8713996. 1987. 226 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"After declining for about nine years, the crude birth rate (CBR) in Egypt increased from 1972 to 1979. This recent increase occurred despite increasing use of contraceptives....In order to understand the trend in marital fertility in Egypt, I have analyzed the trend in the probability of having a specific birth order in a specific period of time. In order to understand which factors are associated with large family size, I have studied the determinants of cumulative fertility measured by number of children ever born (CEB). A causal model of the determinants of cumulative fertility has been developed and tested....[It is concluded that] the fertility transition has already begun in Egypt. Expanding education and family planning services are the policies most likely to hasten the fertility transition in Egypt."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences (48)3.

54:10234 Alvarez Vazquez, Luisa. General methodological guidelines for the study of fertility in the course of studying the health status of a population. [Orientaciones metodologicas generales para el estudio de la fecundidad en el estudio del estado de salud de la poblacion.] Revista Cubana de Administracion de Salud, Vol. 13, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1987. 293-301 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Methodological aspects of studying a population's health status in relation to the fertility variable are explored in the Cuban context. The focus is on how the available data in Cuba can be used to calculate the various fertility indexes that might be required.
Correspondence: L. Alvarez Vazquez, Calle Serafines No. 40, entre Rabi y 10 de Octubre, Municipio 10 de Octubre, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10235 Anderton, Douglas L.; Tsuya, Noriko O.; Bean, Lee L.; Mineau, Geraldine P. Intergenerational transmission of relative fertility and life course patterns. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 467-80 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper addresses the issue of the relationship of fertility between successive generations over the course of a 19th-century frontier fertility transition. Intergenerational event histories are used to explore the relationships between mothers' and daughters' completed family size. Results suggest that daughters' fertility levels are responsive to their mothers' relative fertility and age at marriage (as compared with mother's contemporaries). Effects of exposure to a number of younger siblings, controlling for cohort biases, are also examined. A multivariate proportional hazard analysis of daughter's age at marriage and parity-specific birth intervals demonstrates the direct and indirect effects of intergenerational fertility associations on fertility timing." Data are from the Mormon Historical Demography project's set of computerized family genealogies.
Correspondence: D. L. Anderton, Department of Sociology, Population Research Center, University of Chicago, 1126 E. 59th Street, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10236 Aziz, K. M. Ashraful; Maloney, Clarence. Life stages, gender and fertility in Bangladesh. ICDDR,B Monograph, No. 3, Dec 1985. xi, 231 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The purpose of this study is "to identify the various life stages of an individual in Bangladeshi culture, to describe the psychosexual development and gender role expectations in the different life stages, to relate these to sexual and reproductive behavior, and in addition, to suggest implications for policy." The data concern the life histories of 65 men and women in rural villages in Matlab thana and were collected during a 1978 anthropological survey. The first four chapters deal with cultural aspects of sex roles, sex socialization, and reproduction. Chapters 5 and 6 examine sex behavior at different ages. Chapters 7 through 11 are concerned with fertility, including family planning, communication, and sex education.
Correspondence: ICDDR,B, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10237 Bachrach, Christine A. Cohabitation and reproductive behavior in the U.S. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 623-37 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relation between unmarried cohabitation and three important determinants of fertility--frequency of sexual intercourse, contraceptive practice, and the expectation to have a child within five years. Analyses based on data from the 1982 [U.S.] National Survey of Family Growth show that formerly married cohabitants are similar to married women with respect to these fertility determinants, but that never married cohabitants may have lower fertility in the short run because of extremely high levels of contraceptive practice. The paper also compares self-reported data on cohabitation with an inferred measure based on household composition."
Correspondence: C. A. Bachrach, Division of Vital Statistics, U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 3700 East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10238 Bailey, Mohamed; Weller, Robert H. Fertility differentials in rural Sierra Leone: a path analysis. Journal of Developing Areas, Vol. 21, No. 2, Jan 1987. 191-207 pp. Macomb, Illinois. In Eng.
The authors examine some of the factors indirectly affecting fertility in Sierra Leone and attempt to disentangle the complex causal relationships into direct and indirect effects. Data are from a fertility and family planning survey carried out in rural areas of Moyamba District in 1979, which covered some 2,000 women aged 15-49. "Information was collected on personal characteristics of the respondent and her husband, fertility behavior, socioeconomic and religious characteristics, family-size intentions, contraceptive use, and attitudes toward and knowledge of family planning."
Correspondence: R. H. Weller, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10239 Bakker, M. L. Fertility in Papua New Guinea: a study of levels, patterns and changes based on census data. 1980 National Population Census Research Monograph, No. 6, 1986. xi, 178 pp. National Statistical Office: Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. In Eng.
"This is the sixth in a series of monographs which present results derived from the data collected in the 1980 National Population Census [for Papua New Guinea]." Earlier reports have dealt with urban boundary changes, urban spatial distribution, internal migration, mortality, and urbanization and urban migration; the present document is concerned with fertility. Attention is given to changes in fertility between 1966 and 1980, including lifetime fertility, current fertility, and various fertility estimates. Fertility patterns and differentials are also discussed.
Correspondence: National Statistical Office, P.O. Wards Strip, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10240 Bartlema, Jan; de Jong, Peter. Marital, extra-marital and overall fertility by age of both parents, the Netherlands. Faculty of Social and Cultural Sciences Working Paper Series, No. 11, Nov 1986. 71 pp. Tilburg University, Faculty of Social and Cultural Sciences: Tilburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Total Fertility Rates [TFR] are given for male as well as female populations [of the Netherlands], decomposing these rates in terms of the Total Marital Fertility Rates, the Total Extra-Marital Fertility Rates and the effect of weighting by proportions married. Two-sex intensities and sex-ratios at birth are calculated." The analysis is for the period 1942-1984. The significance and uses of these two-sex rates as measurements of fertility are favorably assessed. It is found that "although the decrease in TFR has slowed down considerably after 1975, there are no indications of an increase as yet. Intensities in the marital as well as the extra-marital sub-populations are however increasing since about 1975. The shift of persons in childbearing ages from the married to the unmarried subpopulations offsets these increases leading to relatively steady levels of TFR. There is a negative relation between the sex-ratio at birth over the 1942-1984 time-span and age of mother as well as father at birth of the child."
Correspondence: Tilburg University, Faculty of Social and Cultural Sciences, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10241 Batse, Zephyrinus K. M. Interrelationships between infant/child mortality and reproductive behavior: an examination of evidence from Ghana. Pub. Order No. DA8711079. 1986. 277 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study explores some aspects of the interrelationships between infant/child mortality and reproductive behavior among Ghanaian women, using data from the 1979 to 1980 Ghana Fertility Survey....There are substantial differences in infant/child mortality associated with mothers's age at birth, birth order, survivorship of the previous child, parent's education, current residence, region of residence, religion, and ethnic group of mother....Analysis of the effects of infant mortality on subsequent reproductive behavior using conventional life tables and the fate of the preceding two births approach indicates that the probability of a subsequent birth increases significantly following the death of the last child, largely owing to maternal physiological factors."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences (48)2.

54:10242 Boserup, Ester. Shifts in the determinants of fertility in the developing world: environmental, technical, economic and cultural factors. In: The state of population theory: forward from Malthus, edited by David Coleman and Roger Schofield. 1986. 239-55 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author explores the relationship between socioeconomic development and changes in the determinants of fertility in developing countries. Topics considered include the relationship between fertility and occupations, agricultural systems, and development strategies. Different conditions in the various developing regions are examined. Both the factors that induce parents to have more children and those that encourage them to have fewer children are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10243 Caldwell, John C.; Caldwell, Pat. The cultural context of high fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, Vol. 13, No. 3, Sep 1987. 409-37, 569, 571 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Fertility remains high and stable throughout sub-Saharan Africa, and there is no certain evidence of any national fertility decline. The explanation is not solely lack of development or ineffectiveness of family planning programs; almost 20 years ago some countries were relatively well developed and had introduced national population programs. The explanation lies largely in a religious belief system and an accompanying social structure that have accorded both spiritual and economic rewards to high marital fertility. Because of the weakness of the conjugal link, men do not feel the full economic burden of their reproductive decisions, while women are ultimately so dependent on their children that they have good reason to fear having too few. This essay explores the context of high African fertility as well as signs of destabilization in this high-fertility system on both the individual and national level."
Correspondence: J. C. Caldwell, Department of Demography, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, P.O.B. 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10244 Chang, Ming-Cheng; Freedman, Ronald; Sun, Te-Hsiung. Trends in fertility, family size preferences, and family planning practice: Taiwan, 1961-85. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 18, No. 6, Pt. 1, Nov-Dec 1987. 320-37 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article traces major trends in the population of Taiwan's reproductive behavior from 1961 until 1984-85, when the net reproduction rate was below 1.0. For 1961-84 about 35 percent of the fertility decline in Taiwan was due to declining nuptiality. Major declines in fertility at ages over 30, a major factor in the first 15 years, have brought rates at the older ages close to zero. The practice of contraception has almost reached saturation levels, with high use rates in all major population strata. Sterilization has replaced the IUD as the modal method and an increasing majority of the couples now begin practicing contraception to space births. The 'KAP-gap' has virtually disappeared. While preferred family size continues to fall, social differentials in preferences persist. However, few couples are satisfied with only one child. Taiwan's family planning program has attained its demographic objectives of going from high to low birth and death rates, but its social welfare functions continue."
Correspondence: M.-C. Chang, Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning, P.O. Box 1020, Taichung 400, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10245 Chowdhury, Abdur R. The infant mortality-fertility debate: some international evidence. Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 54, No. 3, Jan 1988. 666-74 pp. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to analyze empirically the causal relationship, if any, between infant mortality and fertility in thirty-five developing countries." The focus is on possible relationships between the infant mortality rate and the fertility rate. "The hypothesis that infant mortality causes fertility is tested. The possibility of a 'reverse causation' is also analyzed. A one-sided distributed lag test as proposed by Granger...is employed." The results are analyzed in light of several versions of the mortality-fertility proposition, including demographic transition theory, choice theory, Ricardian theory, and the modern economic theory of population.
Correspondence: A. R. Chowdhury, Bentley College, Waltham, MA 02254. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:10246 Das, Narayan. Sex preference and fertility behavior: a study of recent Indian data. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 517-30 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In many Indian societies couples have consistently reported strong preferences for sons. However, these preferences are not always reflected in either contraceptive use or fertility. Previous studies refer mainly to the period 1961-1970, when contraceptive use was minimal, there was little evidence of conscious control among couples, and the majority had large families. This paper, using samples of rural and urban women interviewed during 1979-1980, shows that the sex of previous children at various attained parities has a significant effect on subsequent fertility. We conclude that son preference now has an effect because family size has decreased and contraceptive use has increases. The disappearance of sex preference would reduce overall fertility modestly."
Correspondence: N. Das, Population Research Centre, M.S. University of Baroda, Faculty of Science, Baroda-390 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10247 De Silva, Soma. Levels and trends of fertility in Sri Lanka: a district-level analysis. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 62-F, 1986. v, 48 pp. U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP]: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This is one in a series of papers concerning fertility levels and trends in selected countries in the ESCAP region. The present report concerns Sri Lanka; the analysis covers the period 1962-1980. "Changes in fertility at the district level are decomposed in terms of two components, the proportions married and the fertility of married couples. This could only be done in a country with a refined system of vital statistics and a series of censuses of high quality." The impact of nuptiality changes on fertility is assessed. Data are from the 1963, 1971, and 1981 censuses and from the vital registration system.
Correspondence: ESCAP, United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10248 Devaney, Barbara L. Delayed childbearing in the United States: final report. Feb 1983. 48 pp. Mathematica Policy Research [MPR]: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report examines the relationship between the trend toward delayed childbearing and a variety of socioeconomic phenomena that have paralleled the temporal variations in U.S. fertility. The basic hypothesis motivating the analysis is that, over time, men and women have become more homogeneous with respect to market earnings potential at the time of marriage." Data are from the National Longitudinal Survey. "The results of the microdata analysis show that both the age at first birth and female labor force participation after marriage are positively related to the degree of sexual equality in earnings at marriage. However, the time series analysis suggests that the postponement of childbearing and increased female employment characterizing the last two decades have occurred despite a fairly sharp decrease in the average earnings of women relative to men at marriage."
Correspondence: Mathematica Policy Research, Suite 550, 600 Maryland Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20024. Location: U.S. National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Bethesda, MD.

54:10249 El-Faedy, Mahjoub A.; Bean, Lee L. Differential paternity in Libya. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1987. 395-403 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Libya is one of the Middle East nations with very high fertility and data from 1973 suggest the presence of a natural fertility regime marked by the absence of fertility limitation within marriage. Analysis of paternity data by occupation, however, identifies major differences in the level and pattern of childbearing. The Libyan data are compared with fertility and paternity data from an American frontier population to demonstrate that the general patterns observed are consistent with other natural fertility populations, while selected occupational groups may limit family size."
Correspondence: M. A. El-Faedy, Department of Sociology, Garyounis University, P.O.B. 1308, Benghazi, Libya. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10250 Entwisle, Barbara; Mason, William M. What has been learned from the World Fertility Survey about the effects of socioeconomic position on reproductive behavior. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 85-77, Apr 1985. 16 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Lessons from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) concerning the consequences of socioeconomic position for reproductive behavior are examined using comparative studies of WFS data. The authors find that "the WFS has provided the data that have allowed investigators to: (1) confirm the importance of socioeconomic indicators, especially education, for reproductive behavior in a wide variety of social settings; [and] (2) establish the existence of meaningful variability between social settings in the effects of these indicators....We comment on the implications of the patterns observed within and between countries for two explanations of the reproductive consequences of socioeconomic position, one stressing the material bases of that position and the other emphasizing the ideas, values, and attitudes associated with it....We argue that the evidence does not favor the ideational over the structural explanation, but supports them both."
This paper was originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 396).
Correspondence: Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 S. University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10251 Fei, ShiHong. An inquiry concerning the birth model. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1986. 45-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author modifies the parity progression model of fertility by using the parity progression ratio as a control indicator of fertility. A regression equation is used to calculate the total fertility rate for China at parity one.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10252 Grossbard-Shechtman, Amyra. Economic behavior, marriage and fertility: two lessons from polygyny. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 7, No. 4, Dec 1986. 415-24 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper derives and estimates an index of the relative importance of children in marriage by comparing the effect of husband's income on the actual number of wives in the household with the demand for wives derived from the number of children in the household. Moreover, the paper presents the monogamy bias as a possible explanation for often observed low or negative income effects on fertility." The data are from two surveys carried out around 1971 in Maiduguri, capital of the Northeastern state of Nigeria.
Correspondence: A. Grossbard-Shechtman, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:10253 Hogan, Dennis P.; Chamratrithirong, Aphichat; Xenos, Peter. Cultural and economic factors in the fertility of Thai women. Papers of the East-West Population Institute, No. 107, ISBN 0-86638-103-1. LC 87-21459. Sep 1987. vii, 31 pp. East-West Center, Population Institute: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"This study investigates the effects of three aspects of women's status on the fertility of Thai women. These include marriage arrangements, patterns of intrafamilial decision making, and women's human capital skills and economic activities. The analysis is based on data collected in the 1979 Asian Marriage Survey in Thailand. A multiple classification analysis is used to investigate fertility beyond the second birth. Survival tables and multivariate proportional hazards models are used to study differentials in the rate at which women with two children have a third birth. We test the hypotheses that the effects of these women's status variables on fertility are (1) greater in an urban setting than in a rural setting, and (2) increased after the Thai reproductive revolution. We identify cultural differences in fertility decisions between ethnic Thais (who have a bilateral kinship system with uxorilocal residence) and Thai-Chinese (who have a patrilineal, virilocal kinship system)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10254 Hohm, Charles F.; Galloway, Fred J.; Hanson, Carl G.; Biner, Daniel A. A reappraisal of the social security-fertility hypothesis: a bidirectional approach. Social Science Journal, Vol. 23, No. 2, Apr 1986. 149-68 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut. In Eng.
Data for 81 countries are used to develop econometric models in order to test a hypothesis that links social security programs and fertility. "By controlling for economic development and testing the model at different points in time, the social security variable was found to be causally linked to subsequent fertility levels as well as fertility levels being causally linked to subsequent social security expenditures. Furthermore, the appropriate response lag was identified and various nonlinear functional forms were utilized to control for economic development. Finally, a Chow test was employed to show the existence of structural change between the developed and less developed nations."
Correspondence: C. F. Hohm, San Diego State University, San Diege, CA 92182. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:10255 Jejeebhoy, Shireen J.; Kulkarni, Sumati. The economic value of children and fertility behaviour: a cross-sectional analysis in Maharashtra. [1986?]. [vii], 141 pp. Family Planning Association of India: Bombay, India; International Institute for Population Sciences: Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This analysis is an empirical examination of factors relating to the fertility transition in Maharashtra [India]. The study is concerned generally with the mechanisms through which social and economic variables affect fertility behaviour. Specifically, the two major foci of this study are first to establish the levels and trends in fertility, and second, to examine the role of the demand mechanism and related values and disvalues associated with children in both the shifts from natural to regulated as well as from high to low fertility. The analysis is based on data obtained by conducting a fertility survey in Bhiwandi and Wada talukas of Thane district, Maharashtra during 1983-1984." The data are for 3,046 currently married women and their husbands.
Correspondence: S. J. Jejeebhoy, Family Planning Association of India, Bajaj Bhavan, Nariman Point, Bombay 400 021, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10256 Johansson, S. Ryan. Status anxiety and demographic contraction of privileged populations. Population and Development Review, Vol. 13, No. 3, Sep 1987. 439-70, 569, 571 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Despite their great wealth, elite subpopulations in Western Europe experienced long-run demographic contraction. This article argues that their numerical decline was related to their determination to maintain high and undiminished standards of living for themselves and their heirs. Since the proper endowment of more than a small number of elite children threatened the material basis of family status, reproductively active married couples tried to restrict effective replacement (on average) to two married children. Since a large fraction of elite couples (15 to 30 percent) were childless, aggregate demographic decline (in a closed population) was inevitable. Currently, the world's wealthiest countries are also faced with impending demographic contraction. Parallels are drawn between the status-protecting strategies of traditional elites and those of ordinary couples in modern developed populations, whose high-cost, high-risk children have more in common with those raised by elite families than with children in traditional agrarian economies whose labor and insurance value secured, rather than threatened, their parents' status."
Correspondence: S. R. Johansson, Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10257 Katus, K. A. Birth rate trends in Estonia over a 300-year period. [Evolyutsiya rozhdaemosti v Estonii za trista let.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1987. 54-61 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Fertility trends in Estonia, USSR, over the past 300 years are reviewed. Attention is paid to developments since 1900, particularly to the period since World War II, when a substantial migrant population came to Estonia. The author notes that the indigenous population reached a low level of fertility before the migrant population. Recent fluctuations in fertility among both populations are described; it is noted that the fertility of the indigenous population is currently at a replacement level.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10258 Knodel, John; Chamratrithirong, Aphichat; Debavalya, Nibhon. Thailand's reproductive revolution: rapid fertility decline in a third world setting. Social Demography, ISBN 0-299-11050-8. LC 87-8172. 1987. xiii, 251 pp. University of Wisconsin Press: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
The reproductive revolution that has occurred in Thailand in recent years is reviewed. The authors' stated goal is "to present a comprehensive study of this revolution, documenting the nature and extent of the changes that have taken place and explaining them in demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural terms, including an assessment of the role of organized family-planning programs." Both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to examine the proximate determinants of reproductive change. "The authors begin by placing Thailand in comparative perspective within the contemporary Third World context and then detail its population growth and distribution, land availability, and other important social and cultural factors. They go on to explore recent trends in fertility, family size, and demand for children, taking into account desired family size, gender preferences, and religious differentials....The authors conclude by considering the practical and theoretical significance of the Thai experience to Third World population science and policy."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10259 Korea Institute for Population and Health (Seoul, Korea, Republic of). Fertility changes in Korea. May 1987. 544 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Kor. with sum. in Eng.
This volume contains 14 studies by various authors on aspects of fertility change in the Republic of Korea. Topics covered include the current status of fertility control policies, changes in the population structure, internal migration and fertility, nuptiality changes and fertility, differential fertility and contraceptive prevalence, determinants of fertility change, sex preferences, birth intervals, induced abortion, lactation and postpartum amenorrhea, changes in contraception and sterilization, contraceptive failure and continuation, IEC activities and the effect of social support policies on family planning acceptance, and trends and perspectives for the one-child family.
Correspondence: Korea Institute for Population and Health, San 42-14, Bulgwang-dong, Eunpyung-gu, Seoul 122, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library.

54:10260 Lam, David A.; Miron, Jeffrey A. The seasonality of births in human populations. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 87-114, Sep 1987. 58 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper has two objectives. The first is to present a new, comprehensive set of estimates of the seasonal patterns in births. The paper adopts a simple methodology that is then applied to a large variety of countries and time periods. Our estimates show that two main seasonal patterns emerge often (the United States pattern and the European pattern), that these patterns do not occur according to a simple rule across hemispheres, and that the amount of seasonality does not consistently increase or decrease over time. The second purpose of the paper is to examine the consistency of our results with proposed explanations of birth seasonality. We conclude that cross country comparisons of birth seasonality allow us to eliminate only a few of the interesting explanations of birth seasonality....Closer examination reveals that there is a consistent pattern to the type of seasonal fluctuations displayed by a particular country. This pattern strongly suggests the effects of weather as an important determinant of birth seasonality."
Correspondence: Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 S. University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10261 Lesthaeghe, R. Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change. IPD Working Paper, No. 1987-7, 1987. 47 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The author attempts to reintegrate the sociological and economic approaches to the analysis of fertility using a model of joint economic and cultural dynamics. It is argued that "the ingredients of [the] New Home Economic [approach]...are non-redundant, yet insufficient; the classics in both economics and sociology do provide workable and systematized theories about mechanisms of preference formation; attempts to measure cultural change in preferences, values and ideational goals...have come up with patterning worthy of further consideration and integration; [and] the perception of the alleged shortcomings of the other social sciences with respect to developing systematic usable knowledge is connected with the intellectual closure of a branch of contemporary economics to literature in adjacent fields." The main focus is on Europe, excluding Eastern Europe.
Correspondence: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10262 Lesthaeghe, R. On the adaptation of sub-Saharan systems of reproduction. In: The state of population theory: forward from Malthus, edited by David Coleman and Roger Schofield. 1986. 212-38 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the problem of fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. The author presents "a summary of the findings that establish a link between the particular nature of sub-Saharan preventive checks on reproduction and various aspects of the ecosystem and forms of social organization. Here, we shall draw heavily on cross-cultural analyses of associations between organizational variables. The aim of this section is to establish the organizational basis from which a transition is supposed to take off. The following sections deal with changes in this system produced by exogenous factors, such as the introduction of cash crops, agricultural and industrial wage labour and migration, the growth of the urban sectors, the expansion of formal education and the cultural influences of Christianity and Islam. More specifically, we shall argue that the reproductive system of black Africa is adapting in an uneven way, with some ingredients changing at a rapid pace, while others show a high degree of resistance....The data for this exercise stem largely from [official] censuses and demographic surveys."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10263 Lo, Shu-Rei; Chen, Charles H. C. Proximate determinants of fertility in Taiwan. Journal of Population Studies, No. 10, Jun 1987. 29-53 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
The impact of selected proximate determinants of fertility on the total fertility rate (TFR) in Taiwan is examined using data from a 1985 induced abortion prevalence survey of 12,516 married women aged 15-49. "Bongaarts' model of proximate determinants of fertility is applied to the survey data to analyze the relationships among total fertility rate, total fecundity, and the indices of the proximate determinants [of] non-marriage, contraception, induced abortion, and lactation." It is found that the index of contraception and the proportion married had a significant effect on TFR, while induced abortion and lactational infecundability had little effect. Differences by urban or rural residence are noted.
Correspondence: S.-R. Lo, Department of Health, Executive Yuan, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10264 Lodewijckx, E. First intercourse, contraception and first pregnancy in Flanders: changes during the past 30 years. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1987. 439-52 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Changes in sexual activity, contraception, and fertility in the Dutch-speaking part of Belgium are analyzed using data from the NEGO fertility surveys, including the NEGO IV survey carried out in the early 1980s. The results show that for "women in Flanders born between 1931 and 1962...premarital sexual intercourse has become almost general and that the age at the onset of sexual intercourse is steadily declining. Until the 1970s in spite of the improving contraceptive behaviour of youngsters, the number of women experiencing premarital pregnancy increased and first conceptions occurred at an increasingly younger age. The 1970s marked a turning-point: fewer women became pregnant before marriage or in adolescence. From that time, the contraceptive revolution kept pace with the sexual revolution."
Correspondence: E. Lodewijckx, Department of Anthropology and Social Biology, University of Gent (RUG), St. Pietersnieuwstraat 39, 9000 Gent, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10265 Lorenzen, Gunter. Age-specific legitimate birth rates with changing marriage behavior: results of a simulation computation for the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972-1974 to 1980-1983. [Altersspezifische eheliche Geburtenziffern bei sich anderndem Heiratsverhalten: Ergebnisse einer Simulationsrechnung fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1972/74 bis 1980/83.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 13, No. 3, 1987. 303-18 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"A simple model for age-specific marital fertility rates is presented and empirically checked [using data for the Federal Republic of Germany]. By using this model it is shown that--as a rule--age-specific marital fertility rates are not independent of changes in marriage behaviour. Only if marriage frequencies in all age groups change by the same percentage will age-specific marital fertility rates remain unaffected by this change. The 1972/74 and 1980/83 marriage tables were used in order to be able to make statements about the actual change in marriage frequencies. These tables reveal that the marriage frequencies decreased altogether from 1972/74 to 1980/83 and that the average age at marriage increased simultaneously. By using the simulation calculation it is shown that--ceteris paribus--the age-specific marital fertility rates should, in almost all age groups, have...increased (reaching top values of more than fifty percent) as a consequence of this actual change in marriage behaviour."
Correspondence: G. Lorenzen, Institut fur Statistik und Okonometrie, Universitat Hamburg, Von-Melle-Park 5, 2000 Hamburg 13, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10266 Lutz, Wolfgang. Factors associated with the Finnish fertility decline since 1776. Population Studies, Vol. 41, No. 3, Nov 1987. 463-82 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The analysis of annual age-specific fertility rates in Finland over more than 200 years reveals the existence of a significant early fertility decline at the end of the eighteenth century preceding the secular decline that started around 1910. A reconstruction of age-specific proportions married by a simulation model based on Coale's marriage model indicates that the mean age at marriage increased and the proportion of ever-marrying decreased substantially during the period of the early fertility decline. A modification of the index of family limitation applied under certain assumptions to overall fertility rates also indicates that fertility was essentially natural until 1910. Cross-lagged correlation analysis shows that infant mortality does not influence subsequent fertility in the premodern period. Finally, a number of socio-economic indicators are related to fertility, and conclusions are drawn from the Finnish case about several hypotheses in the field of demographic transition."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10267 Mason, Karen O.; Weinstein, Maxine; Laslett, Barbara. The decline of fertility in Los Angeles, California, 1880-1900. Population Studies, Vol. 41, No. 3, Nov 1987. 483-99 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Data from the 1900 U.S. Census of Population show that fertility in Los Angeles, California, declined by more than 50 per cent between 1880 and 1900. Women's mean age at first marriage, which rose by approximately three years, contributed to the decline, but change in marital fertility was more important than change in nuptiality. Although the fertility of in-migrating U.S.-born women was lower than that of California-born women, the decline was not explained by in-migration. The emergence of a class differential in fertility, with couples of higher status having fewer children than those of lower status, and the simultaneous weakening of class differentials in secondary-school attendance, together suggest that the rise of universal secondary schooling probably did not account for the marital fertility decline experienced in middle- and upper-status families."
This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 444).
Correspondence: K. O. Mason, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10268 Mason, William M.; Entwisle, Barbara. Cross-national variability in age at first birth: theory and evidence. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 85-78, Apr 1985. 22, [13] pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper specifies and tests a multilevel theory of age at first birth, specific to less developed countries. The data are at two levels. At the micro level, the data come from 30 World Fertility Surveys (WFSs). At the macro level, the data include global measures derived from international data compendia, and information aggregated from the individual WFSs. The purpose of the theory is to explain how age at first birth (AFB) varies from one country to the next. We specify a micro model in which AFB is a function of wife's education...and type of place of childhood residence....At the country level, the focus is on variability in the coefficients of this model....We examine the implications of cross-national variability in the opportunities for, and alternatives to, marriage (or union) in a multilevel model of AFB. The major task of the paper is to sketch the rationale for this model, which modifies and adapts a framework proposed by Dixon (1971), and to explore its empirical validity in 30 WFS countries."
This paper was originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 448).
For the study by Ruth B. Dixon, published in 1971, see 37:3327.
Correspondence: Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 S. University, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10269 Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (New York, New York). Multiple births: an upward trend in the United States. In: Statistical Bulletin. Vol. 69, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1988. 10-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Recent trends in multiple births in the United States are reviewed. An increase in multiple births since 1980 is noted. In 1985, the ratio of such births reached 21 per 1,000 total live births. Differences by race and age of mother are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10270 Montgomery, Mark R. A new look at the Easterlin "synthesis" framework. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 481-96 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Easterlin's synthesis of the behavioral and biological factors affecting fertility can be condensed into two central concepts: the demand for births, taking contraceptive costs and the likelihood of child survival into account, and a ceiling or upper bound on lifetime fertility, the product of length of exposure to the risk of childbearing and underlying fecundity. The econometric method known as 'switching regression' is well suited to the analysis of lifetime fertility in the presence of a supply constraint. This paper applies the switching regression methodology in an investigation of fertility in Sri Lanka and Colombia."
Correspondence: M. R. Montgomery, Department of Economics, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10271 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Demographiques (Rabat, Morocco). Fertility levels and regional trends in Morocco. [Niveaux et tendances regionales de la fecondite au Maroc.] Oct 1987. 35 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
Recent trends in fertility in Morocco are studied. The focus is on identifying differences in fertility among regions and between rural and urban areas. Data are from the 1979-1980 National Survey on Fertility and Family Planning and the 1982 census. The results indicate significant differences in fertility levels, ranging from 7.96 children in Chefchaouen province to 3.45 in Rabat.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, B.P. 178, Avenue Maa El Ainine, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10272 Nauck, Bernhard. Individual and contextual factors concerning the number of children in Turkish migrant families: an attempt at evaluating findings of population statistics using individual data. [Individuelle und kontextuelle faktoren der Kinderzahl in turkischen Migrantenfamilien: ein Replikationsversuch bevolkerungsstatistischer Befunde durch Individualdaten.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 13, No. 3, 1987. 319-44 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author analyzes the reproductive behavior of Turkish immigrants in the Federal Republic of Germany. He argues against the assumption that reproductive behavior is primarily the result of socialization processes. "After discussing the special problems associated with the use of index numbers in the field of population statistics for the analysis of migration-conditioned changes in the reproductive behaviour, results are replicated on the correlation between the housing context and the number of children using individual data taken from 520 Turkish migrant families." It is found that "the (minimally different) context opportunities of the new (recipient) society do not have a differential effect on the reproductive behaviour accounting for the number of children."
Correspondence: B. Nauck, Staatsinstitut fur Fruhpadagogik und Familienforschung, Arabellastrasse 1/III, 8000 Munich 81, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10273 Nock, Steven L. The symbolic meaning of childbearing. Journal of Family Issues, Vol. 8, No. 4, Dec 1987. 373-93 pp. Newbury Park, California. In Eng.
Explanations for continued low levels of fertility among U.S. women are examined, with attention to studies concerning actual and opportunity costs of children as well as the implications of children for mothers' market and nonmarket employment. The author then argues that "women limit their fertility or remain childless because of the largely symbolic significance of childbearing for them and their lifestyles" and that this significance is related to a woman's views about male-female equality and the role of women in society. Illustrations are drawn from the 1985 NORC Survey.
Correspondence: S. L. Nock, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10274 Poston, Dudley L.; Gu, Baochang. Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 531-51 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Fertility in the People's Republic of China has recently experienced a rapid decline. China's success has been hailed by some as representing an 'induced fertility transition.' Some have argued that the major factor has been the government's birth planning policy, and not the socioeconomic factors instrumental in fertility declines of other countries. Tien...observed, however, that the variability among China's subregions suggests that areas experiencing the greatest reductions in fertility may also be characterized by 'profound changes in socioeconomic structure.' This paper attempts to widen the discussion by examining relationships between socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility among the 28 subregions of China around 1982."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1986 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 3, Fall 1986, p. 424).
Correspondence: D. L. Poston, Population Research Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10275 Pullum, Thomas W.; Casterline, John B.; Shah, Iqbal H. Adapting fertility exposure analysis to the study of fertility change. Population Studies, Vol. 41, No. 3, Nov 1987. 381-99 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Fertility exposure analysis was developed recently by Hobcraft and Little in order to evaluate the relative importance of the various proximate determinants upon levels of current fertility. In the present paper we extend the analysis to the study of changes in fertility between two cross-sectional surveys. We show how to express fertility change as a product of terms which represent changes in the proximate determinants. The model of change is adapted to a log-linear framework, in which the proximate determinants on the one hand, and socio-economic variables such as education, on the other, are considered together. A few simplifications of the method are also suggested so that fewer demands are made on data. The model and its possible interpretations are illustrated with pairs of surveys from Pakistan and Mexico. In each pair, one survey was part of the WFS programme and the other was very similar but conducted five years later."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, pp. 406-7).
For the study by J. Hobcraft and R. J. A. Little, published in 1984, see 50:20261.
Correspondence: T. W. Pullum, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10276 Qiu, Mingshan. An inquiry into expected lifetime fertility. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 5, Sep 29, 1985. 49-53 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author discusses the limitations of two indexes of fertility, lifetime fertility and total fertility. He notes that lifetime fertility concerns only the preceding generation, and total fertility varies from year to year. Particular attention is given to links between parity-specific measures of fertility and lifetime fertility. An index of expected lifetime fertility is developed, and its application is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10277 Rao, K. Vaninadha; Murty, Komanduri S. Covariates of age at first birth in Guyana: a hazards model analysis. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1987. 427-38 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Analysis of data from the Guyana Fertility Survey on the trends and covariates of age at first birth among various birth cohors of women ever in union indicates that an early entry into union is associated with young age at first birth and higher number of children born. Multivariate analysis showed that women with higher education, urban residence, and entry into union at age 20 or older among younger cohorts experienced lower risks for first birth compared to others, and that young women are delaying their first birth for longer durations than older women. Work status of women before first birth and the starting age of union seem to be the two major contributory factors for age at first birth. Noticeably, the role of education has changed and is now more significant among younger cohorts than among older ones for first birth timing."
Correspondence: K. V. Rao, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10278 Rao, N. Rama; Rele, J. R.; Palmore, James A. Regression estimates of fertility for India, 1971 and 1981. Census of India Occasional Paper, No. 3, 1987. v, 85 pp. Office of the Registrar General: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The authors present a new set of estimated vital rates for India, specifically "the total fertility rate (TFR) and crude birth rate (CBR) for all of India, her major states, and urban and rural sub-divisions of those states for both 1971 and 1981." The estimates were prepared using regression methods developed by Palmore. The new estimates are compared with previous estimates using other techniques. The authors conclude that the "new estimates probably provide a reasonably accurate picture of the current fertility situation in India."
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

54:10279 Rashad, Hoda. Analysis of recent fertility trends in Egypt: the life table approach. CDC Occasional Paper, No. 3, 1987. 52 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to identify recent changes in the collective fertility behaviour of Egyptian women." The first section presents a critique of traditional age-based measures for identifying fertility trends. The author then outlines an alternative approach based on life table methods and applies the method to data from the Egyptian Fertility Survey of 1980. It is concluded that traditional methods of analysis have disguised the rapidity and extent of recent fertility declines in Egypt.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10280 Rele, J. R. Fertility levels and trends in India, 1951-81. Population and Development Review, Vol. 13, No. 3, Sep 1987. 513-30, 570, 572 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This paper presents estimates of fertility change in India based on data from the 1981 and previous censuses. At the national level, fertility estimates are given for quinquennial periods for the three decades from 1951 to 1981. Fertility levels and trends are also estimated by urban-rural residence, and for 14 major states for the period 1961-81. As a byproduct of the analysis, estimates of crude death rates are also obtained for India as a whole from 1951 to 1981. The paper discusses a method for estimating fertility levels and trends at national and subnational levels from census data for countries with deficient population and vital statistics."
Correspondence: J. R. Rele, East-West Population Institute, East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10281 Rubin-Kurtzman, Jane R. The socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Mexico: changing perspectives. Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies Monograph Series, No. 23, 1987. iii, 66 pp. University of California, Center for U.S.-Mexican Studies: La Jolla, California. In Eng.
This report, translated from the original Spanish, presents a survey of the literature on the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in Mexico. Following a general introduction, the author discusses the literature dealing with relationships among economic development, social change, and fertility, with separate consideration of studies using census and vital statistics data and those using survey data. The next chapter examines fertility and individual socioeconomic characteristics. A third chapter deals with collective mediating mechanisms, defined by the author as studies that focus on individual reproductive behavior without touching on the usual intermediate variables. The author concludes that certain variables, such as urban residence, higher educational status, female economic activity, and relatively higher income, consistently appear linked to lower fertility.
Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

54:10282 Simons, John. Culture, economy and reproduction in contemporary Europe. In: The state of population theory: forward from Malthus, edited by David Coleman and Roger Schofield. 1986. 256-78 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The study is concerned with the cultural and economic factors affecting fertility in Europe (excluding Eastern Europe). "The underlying argument of this essay is that the factors which determine the importance to lifestyle of producing children are those which arise from the religious character of the relationship between individual and society." The author suggests that religion does not lose its force during the process of modernization but rather remains the driving force underlying the belief system of society and its institutions. Consideration is given to the relative importance of Christian fundamentalism and conventionalism regarding fertility, and to the effect on fertility of expectations of future income and lifestyle changes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10283 Singh, K. P. Correlates of fertility behaviour: a study of rural communities in Punjab and Haryana. 1986. v, 205 pp. Concept Publishing: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The main objective of the study is to examine the present levels of fertility among different socioeconomic and religious groups [in northern India] and to examine some of the sociological correlates of fertility behaviour among the rural communities of Punjab and Haryana which are undergoing rapid economic transformation. The uniqueness of the study lies in highlighting the hitherto neglected area of intra-village and inter-village variations and providing explanations for these variations in observed differentials in fertility behaviour. A significant finding of the study is that land-owners have [fewer] births as compared to landless due to the fear of downward mobility and fragmentation of land holdings. Caste status and family structure has been found to be another important factor indicating variations in fertility. Inter-village variations in fertility are quite significant and they seem closely related to the level of socio-economic development of the villages indicating thereby the key role of socio-economic development in the reduction of fertility."
Correspondence: Concept Publishing, H-13 Bali Nagar, New Delhi 110 015, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10284 Singh, S. N.; Singh, V. K.; Burman, D. A continuous time model for first birth in rural environment of India. Rural Demography, Vol. 12, No. 1-2, 1985. 55-62 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"A probability model for the time since marriage to first live birth has been derived which accounts for the intervening foetal losses and assumes the variability of non-susceptible period associated with a foetal wastage among females. The influence of some of the social customs on the first live birth interval of a married female, where early marriage is common, is not lesser than that of biological factors. In this context, the suggested model has been modified for applying it to an empirical distribution. A method for estimating some of the parameters of the model is given."
Correspondence: S. N. Singh, Centre of Population Studies, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10285 Smith, Daniel S. "Early" fertility decline in America: a problem in family history. Journal of Family History, Vol. 12, No. 1-3, 1987. 73-84 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"A striking peculiarity of American demographic history is its comparatively early decline in fertility. Although some of the decrease before the Civil War may be attributed to later and less universal marriage, marital fertility also fell. Past scholarship on the subject has focused on alternative explanations and statistical approaches to cross-sectional variations in the child-woman ratio. After showing the inherent limitations of this approach, particularly at the level of states, this article draws on the findings of historians of political behavior and women's activities to suggest that the understanding of the early decline in marital fertility in the United States may be most profitably pursued through the study of the fertility behavior and values of the principal action-groups of antebellum America: religious, ethnic, and economic. Both the motivations for, and possibly the techniques of, family limitation were transmitted and sustained, this hypothesis contends, through membership and participation in these groups."
Correspondence: D. S. Smith, History Department, University of Illinois, P.O.B. 4348, Chicago, IL 60680. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10286 Stephan, Peter. What are the causes of reduced fertility in human populations in former centuries? [Wodurch wurde die Fruchtbarkeit in menschlichen Populationen fruherer Jahrhunderte reduziert.] Biologisches Zentralblatt, Vol. 106, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1987. 21-32 pp. Leipzig, German Democratic Republic. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
Changes in the seasonal distribution of births over time are analyzed using data from parish registers on 19,124 births occurring in the village of Ditfurt, East Germany, between 1594 and 1964. The relationship between variations in fertility by season over time and the periodic food and energy crises that occurred are noted. The author also observes that fertility was lower during seasons requiring hard labor.
Correspondence: P. Stephan, Judendorf 11, 4320 Aschersleben, German Democratic Republic. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:10287 Trovato, Frank. A macrosociological analysis of Native Indian fertility in Canada: 1961, 1971, and 1981. Social Forces, Vol. 66, No. 2, Dec 1987. 463-85 pp. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
Five hypotheses related to fertility are tested using data on Native Indians from the Canadian censuses of 1961, 1971, and 1981. They are "(1) the modernity thesis of fertility decline; (2) the fertility-enhancing effect of modernization thesis; (3) the characteristics-assimilation hypothesis of fertility; (4) the minority-status insecurities hypothesis; and (5) the pronatalist subculture thesis. Results from descriptive and multivariate analyses provide strong support for Hypotheses (1), (2), (3), and (5), but no support for Hypothesis (4)." The author concludes that traditional pro-natalist influences are likely to result in the persistence of high fertility for a considerable time despite the effects of modernization.
Correspondence: F. Trovato, Sociology Department, 5-12 HM Tory Building, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10288 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Fertility of American women: June 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-20: Population Characteristics, No. 421, Dec 1987. iv, 67 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Data on the childbearing experience and birth expectations of U.S. women are provided based on the June 1986 supplement to the Current Population Survey. Information is included on place of birth and citizenship status; fertility trends among foreign-born and U.S.-born women are analyzed separately. The results show that the fertility rate for the 12 months ending in June 1986 was 70.3 per 1,000 women aged 18-44. Consideration is given to the labor force characteristics of mothers with newborn children.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10289 Venkatacharya, K.; Teklu, Tesfay. On some robust estimates of birth rate under nonstable conditions. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 639-48 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"When populations get destablized, the birth rates derived using stable population theory need adjustments. The most recent adjustment suggested by Coale, which is based on the proportion under 15 for both sexes and [proportion surviving to age 5], is found to be very robust. In this paper an alternative adjustment to stable birth rate estimates using the framework of the generalized stable population equations is derived, and the close agreement between the new adjustment and that given by Coale is illustrated for some African countries. A simpler, more robust estimate of birthrate is also deduced from Coale's adjusted birth rate."
Correspondence: K. Venkatacharya, Regional Institute for Population Studies, University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10290 Volkov, A. G. How they study fertility. [Kak izuchayut rozhdaemost'.] Novoe v Zarubezhnoi Demografii, 1983. 128 pp. Finansy i Statistika: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a collection of papers by different authors concerning the study of fertility. The papers were originally published in either English, French, or Czech. Topics considered include social-psychological determinants of fertility in Turkey, causes of marital dissolution in Czechoslovakia, population growth under conditions of limited childbearing, the timing of first, second, and third births in France, the predictability of fertility in developed countries, new methods of forecasting fertility, and a national conference on French demography.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10291 von Zameck, Walburga. Models of economic theory of population growth. [Modelle der Okonomischen Bevolkerungstheorie.] Jahrbuch fur Sozialwissenschaft, Vol. 38, No. 1, 1987. 55-68 pp. Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"The economic theory of population growth applies the opportunity cost approach to the fertility decision. Variations and differentials in fertility are caused by the available resources and relative prices or by the relative production costs of child services. Pure changes in real income raise the demand for children or the total amount spent on children. If relative prices or production costs and real income are affected together the effect on fertility requires separate consideration."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:10292 Wachter, Kenneth W. Elusive cycles: are there dynamically possible Lee-Easterlin models for U.S. births? Sloan-Berkeley Working Paper in Population Studies, No. 3, Jun 1987. 25, [12] pp. University of California, Institute of International Studies: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
"The performance of formal demographic feedback models like Ronald Lee's provide a test of whether theories of endogenous fertility adjustment like Richard Easterlin's can explain the cyclic swings in U.S. and other births that they were put forward to explain. This paper shows how the specification of a demographic feedback model determines its ability to sustain cycles of a given period and amplitude observed in data. Only a few of the many versions of Easterlin-style theories imply formal models which do not prove capable of matching U.S. targets, and then only by narrow margins. The general methods presented here are suitable for a broad investigation of the possible role of age-specific feedback in the diversity of more and less cyclic patterns in birth series in the developed world."
Correspondence: Sloan-Berkeley Working Group, Institute of International Studies, c/o Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10293 Weinberg, Clarice R.; Gladen, Beth C. The beta-geometric distribution applied to comparative fecundability studies. Biometrics, Vol. 42, No. 3, Sep 1986. 547-60 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A convenient measure of fecundability is time (number of menstrual cycles) required to achieve pregnancy. Couples attempting pregnancy are heterogeneous in their per-cycle probability of success. If success probabilities vary among couples according to a beta distribution, then cycles to pregnancy will have a beta-geometric distribution....The likelihood ratio test can thus be employed in studies of exposures that may impair fecundability. Covariates are incorporated in a natural way. The model is illustrated by applying it to data on cycles to pregnancy in smokers and nonsmokers, with adjustment for covariates."
Correspondence: C. R. Weinberg, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Mail Drop B3-02, Statistics and Biomathematics Branch, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

54:10294 Wong, Yue-Chin. Women's work and the demand for children in Hong Kong. Developing Economies, Vol. 25, No. 2, Jun 1987. 188-99 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
The relationship between fertility demand and work supply among married women in Hong Kong is explored using data from a 10 percent sample of the 1976 by-census. The results indicate that the presence of young children encourages women to seek work but of the kind they can do at home. The existence of this kind of work is also shown to lead to increased fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:10295 Wu, Cangping. A theoretical explanation of the rapid decline in China's fertility. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1986. 10-6 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author postulates that the socialist system in China has created conditions advantageous to a rapid fertility decline and that the highly centralized system facilitates the implementation of China's family planning policy. The data used to illustrate this view are from China's 1982 census and the 1-in-1,000 fertility survey. The author is critical of opposition to China's current family planning policy.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10296 Yang, Zihui. Family planning achievements as suggested by changes in total fertility and parity birth rate. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1986. 17-20 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author examines changes in the total fertility rate and parity progression ratios in China using data from the 1983 1-in-1,000 fertility survey. Particular attention is given to fluctuations in the total fertility rate prior to and since the implementation of China's current population policy. A decline in parity progression ratios since the 1970s is noted, and reasons for these changes are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10297 Zhai, Zhenwu. A new study of the marital fertility model. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1986. 35-41 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The author critically examines the Coale-Trussell marital fertility model, asserting that it is not applicable to the situation in which the marital fertility rate decreases rapidly, such as in the case of China. The limitations of the Coale-Trussell model are outlined and a new model is developed, which is applicable to situations of both rapidly decreasing and moderately decreasing marital fertility rates. Empirical results drawn from an analysis of U.N. data for 1965 and 1981 indicate the greater accuracy and flexibility of the new model as compared with the Coale-Trussell model.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

54:10298 Abeykoon, A. T. P. L. Differentials in fertility and contraceptive behavior in Sri Lanka: the ethno-religious factor. Pub. Order No. DA8712063. 1987. 222 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study focuses on the effects of ethno-religiosity on fertility and contraceptive behavior in the plural society of Sri Lanka. The six ethno-religious groups...are examined using data from the 1982 Sri Lanka Contraceptive Prevalence Survey. The analysis clearly shows that ethno-religious differences in fertility and contraceptive use are substantial. Within each group, however, socio-economic status is negatively associated with fertility." Findings specific to each of the groups studied are also discussed.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Michigan.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences (48)2.

54:10299 Belova, V.; Darskii, L. Births in remarriages (using data from sample surveys). [Rozhdaemost' v povtornykh brakakh (po materialam vyborochnykh obsledovanii).] Vestnik Statistiki, No. 7, 1987. 35-43 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Data from sample surveys conducted between 1978 and 1981 are used to examine the fertility of women in second and subsequent marriages in the USSR. The results indicate that women up to age 25 who have been married more than once have higher fertility than women in a first marriage. However, total fertility is higher for women in uninterrupted marriages. The analysis is presented separately for various cohorts and for socioeconomic characteristics such as educational status and rural or urban residence.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10300 Chang, Ming-Cheng. Determinants of cityward migrants' fertility: theory and evidence. Journal of Population Studies, No. 10, Jun 1987. 129-65 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng. with sum. in Chi.
"This study focuses on the determinants of migrant-nonmigrant fertility differentials in Taiwan with particular attention to rural-to-urban migrants. A socioeconomic model is developed in which the fertility determinants are classified into four broad categories: age characteristics, migration status, background characteristics, and current characteristics. The model is evaluated by analyzing data from a large and representative sample of [3,816] Taiwanese wives of childbearing age in 1980 through the use of multiple regression and multiple classification analysis. The fertility of migrants moving from rural to urban area lies in between that of nonmigrants at the place of origin and destination. After adjustment for age or marriage duration and education, the differentials become smaller but still exist. However, the differentials are negligible after further adjustment for current socioeconomic characteristics."
Correspondence: M.-C. Chang, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10301 Chen, Wei. Classification of age-specific fertility and regional differences. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1986. 55-7 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
Differentials in age-specific fertility in China according to economic conditions, culture, and geographic regions are examined using 1982 census data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10302 Chu, C. Y. Cyrus. The dynamics of population growth, differential fertility, and inequality: note. American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 5, Dec 1987. 1,054-6 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
The author presents a critique of an article by David Lam on the relationship between population growth and income distribution. The focus is on Lam's claim that given certain conditions of mobility across income groups, "an increase in the fertility of the poor will unambiguously increase the percent poor in the steady state." It is argued that the mobility condition Lam sets forth "is not sufficient to predict the rise or fall of the percent poor in the steady state as a result of an increase in the fertility of the poor."
For the article by Lam, published in 1986, see 52:40350.
Correspondence: C. Y. C. Chu, Graduate School of Business, National Taiwan University and Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:10303 Dannenhoffer, Raymond P. Differential fertility in human family lines: an historical demographic analysis. Pub. Order No. DA8718530. 1987. 214 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Differences in U.S. fertility rates are analyzed using longitudinal data from 11 lineages, which are based on the records of the Church of Latter-Day Saints' Genealogical Library. "This research demonstrates that there is a significant difference in the reproductive success of human families over time and that this difference is likely the result of a genetic predisposition toward higher fertility."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 48(5).

54:10304 Ferguson, Jane. Reproductive health of adolescent girls. [Les aspects medico-sanitaires de la reproduction chez l'adolescente.] World Health Statistics Quarterly/Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, Vol. 40, No. 3, 1987. 211-3 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng; Fre.
Current trends in adolescent fertility and childbearing worldwide are reviewed. The focus is on the negative aspects of precocious motherhood and premarital sexual activity.
Correspondence: J. Ferguson, Technical Officer, Division of Family Health, World Health Organization, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10305 Lim, Lin Lean; Jones, Gavin W.; Hirschman, Charles. Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1987. 405-25 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Ethnic variations in fertility levels and trends in Malaysia are analyzed using data from official sources, including the 1980 census. "All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analysed. Continuation of current trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace."
Correspondence: L. L. Lin, Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10306 Marsiglio, William. Adolescent fathers in the United States: their initial living arrangements, marital experience and educational outcomes. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 19, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1987. 240-51 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey show that seven percent of young [U.S.] males aged 20-27 in 1984 had fathered a child while they were teenagers, more than three-quarters of them nonmaritally." Differences in the initial living arrangements, marital experiences, and completed educational levels of these fathers are examined with attention to a variety of characteristics, including age, ethnic group, socioeconomic status, religion, urban or rural residence, and characteristics of the family of origin. Multivariate analyses are used.
Correspondence: W. Marsiglio, Department of Sociology, Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH 44074. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10307 Moore, Kristin A.; Simms, Margaret C.; Betsey, Charles L. Choice and circumstance: racial differences in adolescent sexuality and fertility. ISBN 0-88738-062-X. LC 85-20836. 1986. xiv, 165 pp. Transaction Books: New Brunswick, New Jersey/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors focus on the question of "whether the kinds of motivation necessary to prevent early pregnancy vary by race in the United States and might therefore explain race differences in early childbearing. It is our hypothesis that they do. The occupational, educational, and marriage opportunities of black teenagers and their family backgrounds are quite different from those of white teenagers. To the extent that these factors differ by race, we hypothesize that rates of adolescent fertility will also vary by race." The authors review the literature on adolescent sex information and attitudes and on birth control and abortion services for adolescents. In addition, they examine the available literature and data on the relationships among adolescent fertility and education, employment, and marriage.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:10308 Murphy, M. J. Differential family formation in Great Britain. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1987. 463-85 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Fertility differentials in the United Kingdom are analyzed using data from the Family Formation Survey of 1976. "Variables associated with the couple's housing history and the wife's employment career are becoming more strongly associated with demographic differentials among younger cohorts than traditionally-based ones such as religion or region of residence. Cluster analysis techniques show which groups of family formation variables are strongly associated with particular types of non-demographic ones, and a natural grouping of explanatory variables is derived. The implications of these conclusions for data collection in demographic surveys are discussed."
Correspondence: M. J. Murphy, Department of Population Studies, London School of Economic and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10309 Pongracz, Tiborne. On adolescent fertility. [A serdulokori termekenysegrol.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 65, No. 10, Oct 1987. 993-1,005 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
A comparative analysis of adolescent fertility in Hungary is presented. It is noted that, in comparison to 29 other developed countries, the fertility rate of Hungarian women under age 18 is exceeded only by that of black Americans. Factors related to the high rate of adolescent fertility in Hungary include the high proportion of married women aged 15-19, induced abortion, agricultural employment, conservative attitudes toward sexuality, pronatalist policies, high rates of adolescent economic activity, high alcohol consumption levels, and lack of contraceptive knowledge among the young.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10310 Prasithrathsint, Suchart. Ethnicity and fertility in Thailand. Research Notes and Discussions Paper, No. 51, ISBN 9971-988-13-5. LC 86-941925. 1985. xviii, 270 pp. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies: Singapore. In Eng.
This is one in a series of publications dealing with the relationship between ethnicity and fertility in the countries of Southeastern Asia. The present study concerns Thailand. The data are for 858 Thai, 837 Chinese, 838 Thai Muslim, and 587 Southern Thai Muslim couples interviewed in a sample survey. Attention is paid to differences in contraceptive usage as well as to fertility differentials. The results indicate that "ethnicity is unquestionably a significant variable in the study of fertility and family planning in Thailand. Ethnic groups significantly differ from one another not only in the level of fertility and use of effective contraception but also in the variables that significantly affect their fertility and contraceptive behaviour. Population policies and programmes must therefore be carefully formulated and designed for each ethnic group."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10311 Ruggles, Steven; King, Miriam L. Immigration and fertility in 1900: a re-assessment. CDE Working Paper, No. 85-13, 1985. 26 pp. University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology: Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This paper re-examines the basis for Victorian fears of 'race suicide'--the differential fertility of immigrant women, native-born women of foreign parentage, and native-born women of native parentage [in the United States]. The analysis is based upon the cumulative fertility reported by women in the 1900 Public Use Sample, a national random sample of households drawn from the federal census, which includes information on over 100,000 individuals. Our work reports fertility differentials around the turn of the century and explores the determinants of contrasting levels of childbearing." The authors compare their results to those of previous studies and discuss the significance of regional differences and marital status in the study of fertility differentials around the turn of the century.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10312 Stokowski, Franciszek; Jakobiak, Bozena. Regional conditions for differentiation of population reproduction in Poland. [Uwarunkowania regionalnego zroznicowania reprodukcji ludnosci w Polsce.] Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 32, No. 6, Jun 1987. 29-32 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
This study deals with differentials in gross fertility rates and rates of natural population growth by region in Poland. Two models are formulated with the above indicators as dependent variables and the following set of independent variables: population density, percent of nonagricultural population, housing conditions (number of persons per room), percent of population aged 20-29, percent of population aged 65 and over, percent of male population, percent of urban population, percent of population with high school and college education, percent of working women, and percent of married couples. The most significant variables were age 20-29, urban population, working women, sex ratio, and marital status.
Correspondence: F. Stokowski, Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10313 Swicegood, Gray; Bean, Frank D.; Stephen, Elizabeth H.; Opitz, Wolfgang. Language usage and fertility in the Mexican-origin population of the United States. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 1, Feb 1988. 17-33 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article examines the effects of English proficiency and female education on cumulative and recent fertility within the Mexican-origin population in the U.S. To ascertain whether the cultural or the human capital aspects of linguistic variables have the greater salience for fertility behavior, fertility patterns of bilingual women are compared with those of monolingual women speaking English or Spanish. Using the 1980 U.S. Census 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample for ever-married Mexican-origin women aged 15-44, we find that for almost all age cohorts, the effects of English proficiency are negative and increase with rising education. The strength of the interaction is greater in younger age groups. Greater English proficiency is also associated with a more negative impact of education for native- than foreign-born women. Overall, the influence of 'opportunity cost', as opposed to cultural factors, is more important in shaping the fertility behavior of these women."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1986 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 3, Fall 1986, p. 413).
Correspondence: G. Swicegood, Department of Sociology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10314 van Hoorn, W. D. Number of children of Turks and Moroccans in the Netherlands. [Het kindertal van Turken en Marokkanen in Nederland.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 9, Sep 1987. 15-20 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"A multivariate analysis of the 1984 Quality of Life-Survey, which was held among Turkish and Moroccan heads of households in the Netherlands, shows that their fertility is affected by factors concerning their native country as well as by some aspects of life in the Netherlands. A low current number of children is associated with a higher education in the native country, an urban background and no strong commitment to Islam. In addition, the marital status at immigration and the nationality of the woman also show a particular correlation with the fertility. Some socio-cultural characteristics such as the woman's work and house-ownership also have a certain association with the family size." The likelihood of further declines in fertility among Turks and Moroccans living in the Netherlands is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology

54:10315 Figa-Talamanca, Irene; Repetto, Francesca. Correcting spontaneous abortion rates for the presence of induced abortion. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 78, No. 1, Jan 1988. 40-2 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper introduces a method for correcting spontaneous abortion rates by taking into consideration the fact that a number of spontaneous abortions are 'prevented' by induced abortions. This correction may be important in settings of high induced abortion incidence. The method is then applied to the data of the Italian region of Lombardy. The results obtained are compared to those obtained with previous correction methods, and it is concluded that the present method is useful and appropriate when data on induced and spontaneous abortions are available by gestational age."
Correspondence: I. Figa-Talamanca, Dipartimento di Biologia Animale e del'Uomo, Universita di Roma, Piazza A. Moro, 00185 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10316 Kalmuss, Debra S. The use of infertility services among fertility-impaired couples. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 4, Nov 1987. 575-85 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Data from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth are used to assess the prevalence of and sociodemographic characteristics associated with the use of infertility services among fertility-impaired couples in the United States. Logit analysis is used to examine the impact of motivational factors (desire for a child, age, parity, presence of children from a previous marriage) and economic/informational access factors (income, education, race, ethnicity) on infertility service utilization. Results indicate that the decision to use infertility services is a complex one that is affected by issues reflecting access to and motivation for service utilization."
Correspondence: D. S. Kalmuss, Center for Population and Family Health, Faculty of Medicine, Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, New York, NY 10032. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10317 Sheku, Benedict V.-A. Pathological determinants of sterility in rural Uganda. Pub. Order No. DA8714127. 1987. 214 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Data obtained from a 1970 national medical and demographic survey are used to determine the effects of venereal disease (VD) on fertility in Teso and Ankole, two rural areas in Uganda. "Hazard models are used to estimate the effect of VD on fertility. The technique proposed uses event-history data which include, information about the prevalence of VD and estimates of fertility for VD and non VD women given age and/or marriage duration....This technique indicates that the impact of VD and the overall reduction in fertility is by all accounts higher for Teso than for Ankole....It is suggested that the age data provide a substantially truer picture of the estimates of the proportion sterile (or the proportionate reduction in fertility) given VD than do marriage duration based data."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 48(4).

54:10318 Younis, Mohamed N.; El-Tagi, A.; Omara, S.; Aboul-Ela, M. N.; El-Maaddawi, Y. An infertility survey in Suez General Hospital. Dirasat Sukkaniyah/Population Studies, Vol. 13, No. 74, Jan-Mar 1987. 21-32, [37-9] pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng. with sum. in Ara.
"The aim of the present study was to decide the relative magnitude of the different causes of infertility in an Egyptian community (Suez City). The subjects of this study were 333 infertile women [attending] Suez General Hospital out-patient department during the period from September 1984 to March 1986."
Correspondence: M. N. Younis, Obstetrics and Gynecology Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.4. Actions and Activities Directly Affecting Fertility

F.4.1. General Fertility Control and Contraception

54:10319 Aries, Nancy. Fragmentation and reproductive freedom: federally subsidized family planning services, 1960-80. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 77, No. 11, Nov 1987. 1,465-71 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the evolution of the [U.S.] federal family planning program from 1960 to 1980." The competing pressures to develop separate and integrated services are analyzed. The author notes that "neither group prevailed. By 1980, federally supported family planning services were provided in autonomous clinics but also were integrated into existing maternal and child health programs. The debate continues but, under the Reagan Administration, terms and motivations differ from those of the past."
Correspondence: N. Aries, Department of Health Care Administration, Baruch College, Mt. Sinai School of Medicine, City University of New York, 17 Lexington Avenue, Box 313, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10320 Armstrong, Alice K. Access to health care and family planning in Swaziland: law and practice. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 18, No. 6, Pt. 1, Nov-Dec 1987. 371-82 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article investigates the legal aspects of women's access to health care and family planning in Swaziland. First, the background to health care and family planning is discussed, including health care facilities that are available, the extent of contraceptive use and attitudes toward contraceptives, the problem of 'backstreet' or unauthorized abortions, and sterilization for medical reasons and for fertility regulation....It is concluded that the ambiguity of the law--and the divergence of law and practice in those areas where the law is relatively certain--affect women's health adversely by restricting their access to health and family planning. Finally, the question is raised as to whether legislative intervention is possible in a society molded by strong traditions that reflect disapproval of modern contraceptive methods."
Correspondence: A. K. Armstrong, Department of Law, University of Zimbabwe, P.O. Box MP 167, Mount Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10321 Baklaenko, N. G. Organizational principles of fertility regulation in the USSR. A review. Acta Medica Hungarica, Vol. 43, No. 2, 1986. 73-7 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Eng.
The author describes the organization of family planning services in the USSR, including contraception, induced abortion, and treatment for infertility.
Correspondence: N. G. Baklaenko, All-Union Research Centre for Maternal and Child Health Care, Ministry of Health, 4 Oparin Street, 117513 Moscow, USSR. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:10322 Bangladesh Fertility Research Programme (Dhaka, Bangladesh). Proceedings. Conference on contraceptive technology update, 2-3 November, 1986, Hotel Sonargaon, Dhaka. Pub. Order No. 21. Aug 1987. 125 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
This volume contains 15 papers presented at a conference on contraceptive technology, held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, in 1986, with the primary geographic focus on Bangladesh. "The conference aimed to discuss issues which need to be considered in policy formulation and planning of a large program, especially in terms of introduction of a new contraceptive method. One of the objectives was to re-emphasize how policy, training, service delivery and research are interrelated for the success of a program." Chapters cover such topics as maternal mortality; contraceptive safety and effectiveness; various contraceptive methods, including injectables, oral contraceptives, IUD use in Bangladesh and the United States, Norplant use in Indonesia and Bangladesh, and sterilization; family planning program development and implementation; and methods of increasing contraceptive availability.
Correspondence: Bangladesh Fertility Research Programme, 3/7 Asad Avenue, Mohammadpur, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10323 Baraket, Mohamed. Family planning in the rural governorate of Mahdia. [La planification familiale en milieu rural gouvernorat de Mahdia.] Revue Tunisienne de Sciences Sociales, Vol. 23, No. 84-87, 1986. 397-422 pp. Tunis, Tunisia. In Fre.
The author describes demographic and social aspects of three rural areas in the governorate of Mahdia, Tunisia, discusses contraceptive use in this region, and outlines suggestions for the establishment of a family planning program there. Census figures for 1975 and other official statistics for 1981 are used.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10324 Blacker, John G. C. Health impacts of family planning. Health Policy and Planning, Vol. 2, No. 3, Sep 1987. 193-203 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
This paper is concerned with the effects of family planning on morbidity and mortality in women and children. "Rather than attempt to establish the relative importance of child spacing as a cause of decreases in mortality, this paper takes as its starting point that there is a connection, and presents some possible causal mechanisms which explain how short birth intervals and child mortality could be related. In addition the most frequently cited hypotheses--maternal depletion and sibling competition--a third is examined--birth crowding which, it is suggested, influences the pattern of the transmission of infectious diseases and, in turn, mortality....The final section combines parity-specific data on maternal mortality with evidence of changes in fertility patterns brought about by family planning to assess how successful we can hope to be in reducing through birth control the number of women who die in childbirth."
Correspondence: J. G. C. Blacker, Centre for Population Studies, 31 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3EL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10325 Bumpass, Larry L. The risk of an unwanted birth: the changing context of contraceptive sterilization in the U.S. Population Studies, Vol. 41, No. 3, Nov 1987. 347-63 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Life-table estimates indicate that one-quarter of U.S. women intend no more births by age 25, one-half by age 27, and three-quarters by age 30. The resulting long period at risk of unwanted fertility is argued to be an important underlying dimension of the revolution in attitudes to and practice of sterilization. Life-table estimates are then considered of the timing of sterilization after the last wanted birth. Almost one-quarter of all couples select sterilization within the first year after they have had the number of children they desire. Recent experience would imply that four-fifths of all couples will eventually use contraceptive sterilization. In order to examine the determinants of men's and women's sterilization, logistic regression is used with a polytomous dependent variable: sterilization of the woman, sterilization of the man, or no sterilization within four years of the last wanted birth. Covariates considered are age and parity at last wanted birth, year and duration of marriage at last wanted birth, wife's and husband's education, wife's and husband's religion, whether residence is in a central city, region, pill-use history and timing-failure histories before the last wanted birth, and unwanted birth. Large and significant effects are found for most of these variables, and these effects change in interpretable ways between early innovative behaviour and sterilization during the most recent period when it was widely accepted."
Correspondence: L. L. Bumpass, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10326 Chamratrithirong, Aphichat; Stephen, Elizabeth H. Determinants of contraceptive method choice in Thailand. IPSR Publication, No. 98, ISBN 974-586-077-8. Jul 16, 1986. 37 pp. Mahidol University, Institute for Population and Social Research [IPSR]: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The authors investigate the determinants of contraceptive method choice in Thailand, primarily using data from the 1984 national contraceptive prevalence survey. Multivariate analysis is used with three categories of contraceptive choice as the dependent variable and age, urban or rural residence, education, employment status, parity, and a constructed variable representing region, religion, and language as the independent variables. Regression results are described in the text and summarized in tables. Among the findings, the authors note that "Moslems and Southern Thais are continuing to use traditional methods (withdrawal in particular) or no method rather than switching to modern methods....Another subgroup that appears to be resisting modern methods is the women with no education....[At the same time,] by 1984 there were no differences between Bangkok and other urban areas, and between Bangkok and rural areas in the proportion of women using the modern methods. The absence of use of coital methods in rural areas is indicative of the strength of the government programs in providing effective non-coital methods...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10327 de Guertechin, Thierry L.; Pego, Raquel A.; Richa, Arnaldo C.; Souza, Leticia K. N.; Libanio, Padre J. B.; Labra, Maria E.; Bohadana, Estrella. Birth control: family planning in Brazil. [Controle da natalidade: planejamento familiar no Brasil.] 1987. 118 pp. Achiame: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In Por.
This book contains 18 articles by various authors concerning the position of the Catholic church on birth control and the role of women in family planning in Brazil. It is the product of a seminar held in 1982 at the Instituto Brasileiro de Analises Sociais e Economicas. Topics covered include the demographic situation and population policy in Brazil, contraceptive methods, the church's position, women's struggle for contraceptive rights, induced abortion, and family planning practice in Favela da Rocinha.
Correspondence: Edicoes Achiame, Av. Treze de Maio, 13/1010, 20031 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Location: New York Public Library.

54:10328 Demeny, Paul. The economic rationale of family planning programs. Center for Policy Studies Working Paper, No. 133, Aug 1987. 34 pp. Population Council, Center for Policy Studies: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the main rationale for government interest in the provision of contraceptive technology through voluntary family planning programs in less developed countries: that of enhancing economic development. The discussion is organized under headings that identify two distinct if interrelated functions governments aim to perform in this domain: that of promoter of economic growth and that of provider of human welfare. The first function rests on macroeconomic arguments that suggest that slowing aggregate rates of demographic expansion will accelerate economic growth. The second function invokes benefits captured directly by the persons and their families who use the services offered by family planning programs. A concluding section comments on the possible need for government to set the stage for success in performing these functions by acting as an engineer of social change."
Correspondence: Population Council, Center for Policy Studies, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10329 Dryfoos, Joy G. Whither family planning. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 77, No. 11, Nov 1987. 1,393-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the lessons learned from over two decades of federal funding for family planning activities in the United States, with particular reference to the relative merits of categorical and block grants. In view of fiscal and political uncertainties, the author suggests that the safest way to attempt to meet unmet needs for family planning is through a comprehensive approach involving categorical funding.
Correspondence: J. G. Dryfoos, 20 Circle Drive, Hastings-on-Hudson, NY 10706. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

54:10330 Feldman, Shelley. Overpopulation as crisis: redirecting health care services in rural Bangladesh. International Journal of Health Services, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1987. 113-31 pp. Farmingdale, New York. In Eng.
The author asserts that developing an integrated family planning and health program in Bangladesh in an atmosphere of crisis concerning the need to control population growth has had a negative impact on the quality of health services provided. It is suggested that the use of sterilization incentives and the need to meet sterilization targets has undermined people's access to and use of primary health care services. "Findings from three studies, undertaken between 1978 and 1983, support the argument that despite international concern with preventive and promotive primary health care, simultaneous support for and emphasis on population control inhibits meeting the goals of a broad-based rural primary health care service."
Correspondence: S. Feldman, Department of Rural Sociology, Cornell University, 236 Warren Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:10331 Gadalla, Fawzy. Family planning as a primary health care. Dirasat Sukkaniyah/Population Studies, Vol. 13, No. 74, Jan-Mar 1987. 13-20, [33-5] pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng. with sum. in Ara.
The author describes how family planning is currently being developed in Egypt as part of the services offered through primary health care.
Correspondence: F. Gadalla, Community Medicine Department, Faculty of Medicine, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10332 Hayran, Osman; Kocagoz, Tanil; Kocagoz, Sesin. A case study on the fertility and contraceptive practice of urban women. [Kent kadinlarinda dogurganlik ve gebelikten korunmaya iliskin bir ornek olay.] Nufusbilim Dergisi/Turkish Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 9, 1987. 55-62 pp. Ankara, Turkey. In Tur. with sum. in Eng.
"This study analyzes the fertility characteristics and the practise of contraceptive methods among married women aged 15-49 living in Izmit [Turkey] urban area. While the average pregnancies and the number of living children are lower than the average for overall Turkey, the use of contraceptive methods [is] found to be higher. Only [one third] of the women exposed use traditional methods. No significant relation is found between education level or number of living [children] and use of contraceptive methods. 66.5% of all women agree that due to medical or social reasons, legal abortions must be made in hospitals."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10333 Ingoldsby, Bron B.; Stanton, Max E. The Hutterites and fertility control. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1, Spring 1988. 137-42 pp. Calgary, Canada. In Eng.
The authors examine causes of the declining rate of population growth among the Hutterites of North America. Data are from medical records containing contraceptive information obtained in 1985 concerning 48 Hutterite women. The results suggest that Hutterites are currently using contraception and that "12.5% of the women have used oral contraceptives and/or IUDs. An additional 25% have had a tubal ligation and/or a hysterectomy, meaning that over one third of the sample has made use of some form of birth control."
Correspondence: B. B. Ingoldsby, Department of Family Development, Ricks College, Rexburg, ID 83440. Location: Princeton University Library (SSA).

54:10334 Korea Institute for Population and Health (Seoul, Korea, Republic of); China (Taiwan). Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning (Taichung, Taiwan). Comparative study of fertility control experiences in Republic of Korea and Republic of China (proceedings of workshop, 3-10 November 1986, Seoul, Korea). Aug 1987. 247 pp. Chinese Center for International Training in Family Planning: Taichung, Taiwan. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of a cooperative workshop held in Seoul in November 1986 involving a comparative study of fertility control experiences in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. Topics covered include fertility control policies in both countries, prospects for future population growth and its implications, and contraceptive failures and use-effectiveness. Population projections to the year 2025 are presented for both countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10335 Lapham, Robert J.; Simmons, George B. Organizing for effective family planning programs. 1987. xiii, 706 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population, Working Group on Family Planning Effectiveness: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is the report of the Working Group on Family Planning Effectiveness, set up by the National Research Council's Committee on Population, to prepare a scientific assessment of family planning programs in the developing world. It consists of 28 papers by various authors organized under the following topics: environment of family planning programs, program management and program elements, special modes of delivery, client-provider transactions, and methodological issues. The emphasis is on the contribution of various program elements to the effectiveness of organized family planning programs. The consensus is that, firstly, family planning programs have an effect on contraceptive use and fertility independent of the effect of socioeconomic development; and, secondly, that there is empirical evidence on how to make such programs more effective.
Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

54:10336 Medchuk, I. K.; Medchuk, I. I. The orientation of married couples toward family development. [Orientatsiya narechenich na rozvitok ich simei.] Demografichni Doslidzhennya, Vol. 10, 1986. 41-7 pp. Kiev, USSR. In Ukr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author reports on the results of a study of family planning among married couples in Lvov, the Ukrainian SSR. The influences of age, social class, and income level on desired family size are examined. Measures designed to promote the three-child family among those approaching childbearing age are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10337 Olusanya, P. O. Some aspects of family planning programmes and fertility in selected ECA member states. African Population Studies Series, No. 9; E/ECA/SER/A/7, [1987?]. viii, 52 pp. U.N. Economic Commission for Africa [ECA], Population Division, Planning and Policies Section: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
The author assesses the impact of family planning programs on fertility in selected African countries in an attempt to identify the socioeconomic and attitudinal factors associated with family planning acceptance and to identify factors affecting the achievement of program objectives. The countries selected are Kenya, Egypt, Mauritius, and Lesotho. Consideration is also given to fertility trends and determinants.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10338 Pejaranonda, Chintana; Santipaporn, Sureerat. Contraceptive method choice in Thailand: an analysis from the 1985 Survey of Fertility in Thailand. Pub. Order No. E-SuR-Con.Ch-No.1-86. [1986]. [iv], 20, 9 pp. National Statistical Office: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This report, concerning contraceptive method choice, is one in a planned series presenting results from the 1985 Survey of Fertility in Thailand. The authors "assess the role of family planning clinics and socioeconomic variables in contributing to the increase in contraceptive use in general, and in modern methods in particular. The multinomial logit model is used to analyse influences on the choice of contraceptive method." Consideration is given to regional differences in methods chosen.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:10339 Pfister, Ulrich. The origins of birth limiting. A case study (of selected families from Zurich in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries). [Die Anfange von Geburtenbeschrankung. Eine Fallstudie (ausgewahlte Zurcher Familien im 17. und 18. Jahrhundert).] Europaische Hochschulschriften, Reihe III/Publications Universitaires Europeennes, Serie III/European University Studies, Series III, Vol. 256, ISBN 3-261-03497-1. 1985. 292 pp. Peter Lang: New York, New York/Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This is a two-part examination of the origins of decreased marital fertility in Western Europe. In the general study, the author discusses the history of birth limitation, theories concerning reproductive behavior, and contraception. In the empirical section, the author applies the theoretical and methodological formulations developed in the first section to a case study of Zurich, Switzerland. General historical development, the history of fertility in Zurich, the Protestant ethic, differential fertility according to status and position, and other cultural, social, and demographic variables bearing on the control of fertility are studied. The author then presents a model of the determinants of decreased fertility for Zurich up to the beginning of the nineteenth century.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:10340 Pratt, William F.; Bachrach, Christine A. What do women use when they stop using the pill? Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 19, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1987. 257-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Contraceptive methods used after discontinuation of oral contraceptives are examined using data on 7,969 U.S. women aged 15-44 who were interviewed in 1982 in Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth. "The decline in current use of the pill during the 1970s coincided with a marked increase in contraceptive sterilization, but was not the result of a direct switching from the pill to sterilization by individual women. Only 21 percent of women who quit the pill chose sterilization as their next method. The majority--60 percent--switched to nonpermanent methods, the condom being the most popular in all age-groups; the proportions selecting the condom as their next method ranged from 20 percent of 15-19-year-olds to 12 percent of 30-44-year-olds. Nineteen percent of former pill users did not adopt any method after discontinuing the pill."
Correspondence: W. F. Pratt, Family Growth Survey Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Center Building, 3700 East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton