Volume 53 - Number 3 - Fall 1987

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

53:30759 Biggins, J. D.; Gotz, Thomas. Expected population size in the generation-dependent branching process. Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 24, No. 2, Jun 1987. 304-14 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"A Malthusian parameter for the generation-dependent general branching process is introduced and some asymptotics of the expected population size, counted by a general non-negative characteristic, are discussed. Processes both with and without immigration are considered."
Author's address: Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

53:30760 Biswas, Suddhendu; Ebraheem, Nather A. A modified quasi stable population technique for a non stable population. SCIMA, Vol. 15, No. 3, 1986. 90-9 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this paper we made an attempt to examine whether Coale's (1972) quasi stable population technique with minor adjustment is appropriate to predict the age distribution of a non stable population which departs from quasi stability...." The technique is applied to Indian census data for 1971. A comparison with official Indian data shows that the method predicts the age distribution of the population reasonably well.
Author's address: Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Delhi, Delhi, India.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30761 Hillion, Alain. Mathematical theories of population. [Les theories mathematiques des populations.] Que Sais-Je?, No. 2258, ISBN 2-13-039193-1. 1986. 127 pp. Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an overview of the most recent and widely used mathematical models of population growth. Following a general introduction to population dynamics and the use of mathematical models, chapters are included on deterministic models in discrete time, deterministic models in continuous time, stochastic models in discrete time, and stochastic models in continuous time.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30762 Jozwiak, Janina. Mathematical models of population. [Matematyczne modele ludnosci.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 176, LC 86-11405. 1985. 167 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
The author presents a number of mathematical models of population reproduction, including the classical population model in which the age distribution is considered, multi-regional models concerning population by age and place, and multistate models dealing with age distribution and other characteristics. In addition to deterministic models, one chapter introduces stochastic elements and shows that the distribution of population is identical in the two types of models. In the last chapter, the distribution of population by sex is introduced, and its consequences are assessed. The problem of aggregation of the reproduction model is also considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30763 Pathak, K. B. An extension of a probability model for closed birth interval. Health and Population: Perspectives and Issues, Vol. 6, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1983. 133-42 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng. with sum. in Hin.
"Based on some simple assumptions regarding [the] human reproduction process, a continuous time probability model for describing variation in any closed birth interval of a woman of a marital duration (t) has been developed. The model incorporates the possibility of the woman being adolescent sterile at the time of consummation of marriage. The estimates for truncation bias in the mean closed birth intervals are also obtained." The model is applied to Indian data from a 1969-1970 survey conducted in Varanasi.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30764 Singh, Laishram L. Impact of sex preference and stopping rules on parity progression ratios. IIPS Newsletter, Vol. 27-28, No. 4-1, Oct-Jan 1986-1987. 1-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This paper describes a methodology for finding the changes in annual births, birth order distribution, expected family size and parity progression ratios when couples adopted certain stopping rules depending on the sex composition of the surviving children. The methodology is illustrated...using birth order data from Census of India, 1981. It is found that in all the three stopping rules considered, annual births have considerably changed and parity progression ratios at higher parities are almost reduced to zero."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30765 Skoglund, Tor; Sorensen, Knut O. An economic-demographic system of models for region analysis. [Et okonomisk-demografisk modellsystem for regional analyse.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 87/10, ISBN 82-537-2503-5. 1987. 58 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
This report is one in a series produced by Norway's Central Bureau of Statistics as part of its effort to develop macroeconomic models for the purposes of national planning and analysis. This work provides overviews of the REGION model and the DROM model system. These models and those used in other countries are compared on the basis of objectives and classification of regions; size of the area covered by the model and variables; relationships among regional, national, and interregional variables; and theory and data base. The future use of models for regional analysis and planning is also discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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