Volume 53 - Number 2 - Summer 1987

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

53:20741 Agung, I Gusti Ngurah. Chi-square statistics based on block-triangular tables. [Statistik chi-kuadrat berdasarkan tabel blok-segitiga.] Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 13, No. 26, Dec 1986. iv, 49-60 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper discusses some problems related to a type of incomplete contingency table, called a block-triangular table. Furthermore, this paper also presents an illustration in computing the Pearson Chi-square based on this type of table [as well as] a general formula."
Author's address: Pusat Penelitian Kependudukan, Universitas Gajah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20742 Brillinger, David R. The natural variability of vital rates and associated statistics. Biometrics, Vol. 42, No. 4, Dec 1986. 693-734 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The first concern of this work is the development of approximations to the distributions of crude mortality rates, age-specific mortality rates, age-standardized rates, standardized mortality ratios, and the like for the case of a closed population or period study. It is found that assuming Poisson birthtimes and independent lifetimes implies that the number of deaths and the corresponding midyear population have a bivariate Poisson distribution....It is...suggested that situations in which explanatory variables are present may be modelled via a doubly stochastic Poisson distribution for the number of deaths, with mean proportional to the population size and an exponential function of a linear combination of the explanatories. Such a model is fit to mortality data for Canadian females classified by age and year. A dynamic variant of the model is further fit to the time series of total female deaths alone by year. The models with extra-Poisson variation are found to lead to substantially improved fits."
Author's address: Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

53:20743 Burch, Thomas K.; Madan, Ashok K. A note on the components of Coale's Ig and other indirectly standardized indices. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1986. 151-65 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Some results of elementary linear algebra are used to explore conventional standardized measures. Taking the norm of a rate vector as a summary measure of a set of demographic rates...[the authors] provide an expression for the interaction between rates and structure in standardized measures. Using these results and the Coale-Trussell model of marital fertility, it is shown that Coale's Ig can be factored into three terms measuring a) the scale, b) the pattern of marital fertility and c) an error term due to the arbitrary choice of Hutterite fertility as standard. Some suggestions are made in passing of possible corrections of conventional standardized indices."
Author's address: Population Studies Center, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20744 Day, Richard H.; Kim, Kyoo-Hong. A note on nonperiodic demoeconomic fluctuations with positive measure. MRG Working Paper, No. M8628, Jul 1986. 10 pp. University of Southern California, Department of Economics, Modelling Research Group: Los Angeles, California. In Eng.
"Proofs of the existence of nonperiodic behavior using sufficient chaos conditions leave open the question as to whether irregular fluctuations are probable for initial conditions drawn at random. It is known that in some cases this probability is zero, thus casting doubt on the importance of chaos as a theoretical characterization of the phenomenon of interest. In this note we consider this issue in the context of a classical demoeconomic model. We show that nonperiodic population fluctuations are probable, converging to a limit set with positive measure that is absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesque measure."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20745 Hodge, Robert W. ANOVA based designs for the analysis of survey data. NUPRI Research Paper Series, No. 37, Mar 1987. vi, 28 pp. Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"In this essay, we work out the relationship between dummy variable and multiple classification analysis, showing how one can transform the results obtained from either of these methods to the other. In addition we exhibit computational formula, provide a numerical example derived from a Korean fertility survey, and discuss the relative merits of dummy variable as opposed to effect coding of polytomies."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20746 Kim, Young J. Dynamics of populations with changing rates: generalization of the stable population theory. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 31, No. 2, Apr 1987. 306-22 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A general and complete exposition of the dynamics of populations with changing vital rates is given in the discrete time formulation. Results obtained are stronger than Lopez's or Hajnal's. In addition to the proof of existence of limits, an explicit expression for the age distribution is obtained by considering forward products of population projection matrices, while an explicit expression for the generalized reproductive values is obtained by considering backward products. The forward and backward characteristic equations respectively determine the forward and backward growth rates."
Author's address: Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20747 Mode, Charles J.; Jacobson, Marc E.; Pickens, Gary T. A stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent branching processes. Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 24, No. 1, Mar 1987. 1-13 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
"Algorithms for a stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and random sums of random variables. New algorithms provide a capability for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as variances and covariances, measuring variation about means. Four exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are presented. Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit population projections...are also presented. These formulas show that, in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial population size is large. Further extensions of these formulas to the case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large initial populations."
Author's address: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

53:20748 Nanjo, Zenji. Practical use of interpolatory cubic and rational spline functions for fertility data. NUPRI Research Paper Series, No. 34, Dec 1986. vi, 13 pp. Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
The author presents a method for obtaining fertility data for single years of age from data concerning births by five-year age groups of mothers. Cubic and rational spline interpolations and an angular transformation formula are applied to data for Japan and Bulgaria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20749 Paszek, Barbara. The net probability of occurrence of demographic events and type of distribution. [Prawdopodobienstwo netto wystepowania zdarzen demograficznych a typ rozkladu.] Studia Demograficzne, Vol. 2, No. 4/86, 1986. 85-90 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"In this paper two methods of calculation of the net probability were analysed thoroughly--[the] Schwartz-Lazar method and [the] Chiang method--in consideration of [the inherent assumptions] in these methods...in reference to examined distributions, and [the] effect of these assumptions on calculated net probability...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20750 Rogot, Eugene; Sorlie, Paul; Johnson, Norman J. Probabilistic methods in matching census samples to the National Death Index. Journal of Chronic Diseases, Vol. 39, No. 9, 1986. 719-34 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
These are the results of a pilot study in which U.S. census files containing 226,000 person records were matched to the 1979 National Death Index. The results of this match were used to generate a probabilistic method to separate the possible matches into categories of true positives, false positives and those of questionable status requiring manual review of the Census record and the death certificate. Of the 5,542 possible matches about one-third were ultimately determined to be true positives and two-thirds false positives. The probabilistic method was validated by replications on subsets of the data and promises to save considerable time in review of records in the large national study of mortality."
Author's address: Division of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

53:20751 Shah, M. Rafiq. A critique of Clogg's method of rates adjustment. IPD Working Paper, No. 1987-4, 1987. 27 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"Clogg (1978) has developed a method for the adjustment of demographic rates by purging the so called undesireable interactions from a saturated multiplicative model. The summary rates of the purged frequencies are known as the adjusted rates. This paper critically examines the proposed method of finding adjusted rates by purging two factor interactions, and relates it to the traditional method of direct standardization by defining the prevalence rates in terms of the parameters of the model. A comparison of the results reveals that unlike directly standardized rates, the adjusted rates carry with them the effects of the confounding factor. The case of finding adjusted rates based on purging both two and three factor interactions is also discussed. The examples quoted by Clogg (1978) are used as numerical illustrations."
For the article by Clifford C. Clogg, published in 1978, see 45:1660.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20752 Sierra Bravo, Restituto. Exploratory data analysis and its application to birth, marriage, and mortality rates in the provinces of Spain. [El analisis exploratorio y su aplicacion a las tasas de natalidad, nupcialidad y mortalidad de las provincias espanolas.] Revista Internacional de Sociologia, Vol. 43, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1985. 635-65 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The concept of exploratory data analysis is described and applied to the analysis of Spanish provincial data concerning fertility, nuptiality, mortality, and natural increase for the years 1979 and 1982. Differences among the provinces are described.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

53:20753 Sora, V.; Hristache, I.; Despa, M. Stable population-reference model in the analysis of the structure by age. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics, Studies and Research, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1986. 33-7 pp. Bucharest, Romania. In Eng.
The authors examine the implications of Romania's current pronatalist policy, which is designed to raise the birth rate to between 18 and 20 per 1,000. The emphasis is on what is defined as instability factors in the age structure of the population. The concept of an instability index is described and applied to Romanian demographic data to identify the generations whose reproduction rates have been the lowest.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

53:20754 Stark, Oded; Yitzhaki, Shlomo. Merging populations, stochastic dominance and Lorenz curves. Migration and Development Program Discussion Paper, No. 29, Mar 1987. 9 pp. Harvard University, Center for Population Studies, Migration and Development Program: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"In typical comparisons of inequality the condition that the means of the distributions are equal is hardly met. In these cases, the widely used Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for stochastic dominance. It is suggested to replace the Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion with an absolute Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion. The implications of adopting this criterion are discussed in the context of fixed populations and changing populations."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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