53:20073 Gruder,
Vivian R. A note on the population of France at the end of
the eighteenth century. [Note sur la population de la France a la
fin du XVIIIe siecle.] DH: Bulletin d'Information, No. 48, Mar 1987.
42-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews a number of
contemporary attempts to estimate the population of France in the
period immediately preceding the French Revolution of 1789. Emphasis
is placed on a 1783 estimate prepared by the Controller General,
Calonne.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20074 van der
Haegen, H. The recent demographic evolution in
Belgium. Tijdschrift van de Belgische Vereniging voor
Aardrijkskundige Studies/Bulletin de la Societe Belge d'Etudes
Geographiques, Vol. 55, No. 1, 1986. 103-6 pp. Louvain, Belgium. In
Eng.
Demographic trends in Belgium over the past 20 years are
reviewed. The author notes that the total population began to decline
in 1983 for the first time since the founding of the Belgian state.
Consideration is given to regional differences and to the demographic
contribution of the foreign population. A series of maps illustrating
population dynamics in 1983 is presented
separately.
Location: New York Public Library.
53:20075 Ales,
Milan. Population development of Czechoslovakia in
1985. Demosta, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1986. 11-4 pp. Prague,
Czechoslovakia. In Eng.
The author examines demographic trends in
Czechoslovakia in 1985. Figures are provided on marriage, divorce,
natality and fertility, abortions, mortality, and infant and neonatal
mortality for the years 1983, 1984, and 1985 for the Czech Socialist
Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20076 Bruk, S.
I. The population of the world: an ethno-demographic
inquiry. [Naselenie mira: etnodemograficheskii spravochnik.] Rev.
ed. 1986. 829 pp. Izdatel'stvo Nauka: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is
a revised edition of a reference book presenting demographic data for
the countries of the world. The data are taken both from official
national sources and from official U.N. publications. Initial chapters
describe the current global demographic situation and the current
global ethnic situation. The bulk of the text concerns an analysis of
the demographic and ethnic situations by continent and region. In the
present edition, the emphasis is on data available for the early
1980s.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20077 Canada.
Statistics Canada. Demography Division (Ottawa, Canada).
Population estimation methods, Canada. Pub. Order No. 91-528E.
ISBN 0-660-12028-3. Mar 1987. 117 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng.
The
methods used to produce official population estimates for Canada are
discussed and evaluated. "Individual chapters are organized around
three recurring themes: (1) method; (2) data sources, and; (3) quality
evaluation. In this regard, an attempt is made in each chapter to
answer the corresponding questions: (1) how are the estimates
produced; (2) what are the data and their sources, and; (3) how
reliable are the estimates in light of various validation criteria?"
Separate chapters are included on postcensal population estimates for
the total population and for the population by sex, age, and marital
status, intercensal estimates, internal migration, emigration, local
area population, and family estimates. The publication is also
available in French.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20078 Carrilho,
Maria J. Provisional estimates of the resident population
of Portugal, 1984. [Estimativas provisorias de populacao residente
em Portugal, 1984.] 1985. 11 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica
[INE], Centro de Estudos Demograficos: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Population estimates for Portugal are presented for the end of 1984
using data from official sources, including the 1981 census. The
estimates are provided by district and sex. Summary vital statistics
by district are also included
Publisher's address: 1078 Lisbon
Codex, Portugal.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20079 Donque,
G. The population of the Federal Islamic Republic of the
Comoros. [La population de la Republique Federale Islamique des
Comores.] Madagascar; Revue de Geographie, Vol. 42, Jan-Jun 1983. 9-21
pp. Antananarivo, Madagascar. In Fre.
The demographic situation in
the Comoros, excluding Mayotte, is discussed using data from the 1980
census. Among the topics considered are population characteristics and
spatial distribution, education and marital status, population
movements, employment, and prospects for the future. The islands'
inability to physically support the projected long-term growth trends
underscores the need for family planning
programs.
Location: University of Florida.
53:20080 France.
Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]
(Paris, France). Demographic results for the year
1986. [Bilan demographique de 1986.] Premiers Resultats, No. 82,
Feb 1987. 4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A summary of provisional
vital statistics for France for 1986 is presented. An annual growth
rate of 0.4 percent is indicated, similar to rates of growth recorded
since 1975.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20081 Hobbs,
Frank B. Demographic estimates, projections and selected
social characteristics of the population of India. CIR Staff
Paper, No. 21, May 1986. vii, 148 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center
for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This detailed
study of selected demographic and social characteristics of the
population [of India] focuses on five major topics, namely, internal
and international migration, religion, education, and population
projections. Included are tables on size of population and estimates
of fertility, mortality, and migration. Specifically, annual estimates
of total population and growth rates are shown beginning in 1950.
Adjusted age and sex distributions of the population are given for the
census years 1971 and 1981, followed by projected distributions for
selected years to 2025."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
53:20082 Levy,
Michel L.; Brouard, Nicolas. The population of France in
1985 and 1986. [La population de la France en 1985 et 1986.]
Population et Societes, No. 211, Mar 1987. 4 pp. Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an
overview of selected changes in the dynamics and composition of the
French population in 1985 and 1986. Overall, little change is noted,
with a slight increase in births, virtually the same number of deaths,
and no net migration. Attention is given to trends in births to
unmarried women and to couples of mixed and foreign nationality.
Population pyramids, comparing the actual French population in 1987
with the population under assumptions of unchanging fertility
conditions and comparing French residents in 1987 with those born in
France in order to illustrate migration effects, are
included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20083 Marton,
Adam. Synthetic estimates for small areas: problems and
results of a simulation experiment. Statistical Journal of the
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Vol. 4, No. 1, May 1986.
71-80 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The use of special
estimation techniques to develop small area data is described using
examples from Hungary. The focus is on the use of synthetic, or SPREE,
techniques to increase the reliability of estimates of small-area
characteristics. The techniques are tested using a simulation
experiment. "Ten variables were selected from the 1980 population
census. Their exact values were known. Four different synthetic
estimators were tested and compared with the simple direct estimator.
The ten variables were studied at both a fairly aggregated level (minor
domains) and in great detail (mini domains). The simple direct
estimator with the synthetic or composite synthetic estimators shows an
improvement of average reliability of 40 to 50 per
cent."
Location: Princeton University Library (UN).
53:20084 Nicaragua.
Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas y Censos [INEC] (Managua,
Nicaragua); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia
[CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Nicaragua: estimates and
projections of population, 1950-2025. [Nicaragua: estimaciones y
proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F-NIC, No. 1, Nov
1983. [114] pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San
Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are
presented for Nicaragua from 1950 to 2025. The methodologies used are
first described. Data are from a variety of official sources but are
primarily from the 1971 census. Four alternative projections for the
period 1980-2025 are discussed. Abbreviated life tables for 1950-1955,
1975, and 1980 are also provided. Projections of the economically
active population and of the urban and rural populations are included
for the median variant.
Location: U.N. Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.
53:20085 Sauberer,
Michael. Latest trends of regional population development
in Austria (1971-1984). [Jungste Tendenzen der regionalen
Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Osterreich (1971-1984).] Mitteilungen der
Osterreichischen Geographischen Gesellschaft, Vol. 127, 1985. 81-118
pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The author examines
regional demographic trends in Austria between 1971 and 1984. Two
theses are developed and illustrated. The first is that the decline in
fertility rates experienced in the nation as a whole has had a major
impact on regional population dynamics. The author finds that as a
result of this decrease, "from the regional point of view both the
disparities between Western and Eastern Austria and between urban and
regional areas were reduced." Second, the author suggests that
"regional population redistribution caused by migration is of declining
importance as the migration rates are decreasing....The importance of
qualitative effects of migration represented by a socioeconomic
selection process is increasing. The net migration rates of the big
towns are now in a transition process to an out migration surplus. In
the suburbanized areas the in-migration rates are still growing with a
spatially centrifugal tendency. The net migration losses of the
peripheral areas are declining." The trends are evaluated in light of
the goals of regional development policies.
Location:
Northwestern University.
53:20086 United
Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New
York, New York). Global estimates and projections of
population by sex and age: the 1984 assessment. No.
ST/ESA/SER.R/70, 1987. ix, 385 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report presents the estimated and projected sex and age
distributions according to the medium, high and low variants for
1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of
300,000 and over in 1980." Data are from the tenth round of the global
demographic assessments undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat and
represent data available at the beginning of
1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20087 United
Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs.
Population Division (New York, New York). World
demographic trends. [Tendances demographiques mondiales.] World
Health Statistics Quarterly/Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques
Sanitaires Mondiales, Vol. 40, No. 1, 1987. 6-21 pp. Geneva,
Switzerland. In Eng; Fre.
World population trends since 1950 and
projections to the year 2025 are studied using U.N. data. Attention is
given to population size, rate of growth, age and sex distribution,
urbanization, fertility, and mortality. It is noted that "the world
population almost doubled over the period 1950-1985. The rate of
population growth, however, changed its course from the rise in the
1950s and 1960s to the decline in the 1970s and the first half of the
1980s...." Regional comparisons are made, and the age distributions of
developed and developing countries are
contrasted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20088 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). United
States population estimates and components of change: 1970 to
1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population
Estimates and Projections, No. 1006, May 1987. iii, 18 pp. Washington,
D.C. In Eng.
"This report provides estimates of the population of
the United States for each month from January 1, 1950, to January 1,
1987. It also shows estimates of the components of change for the
total population by race for each calendar year and for each year
ending June 30 from 1970 to 1986." Separate consideration is given to
trends in fertility, mortality, and immigration.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20089 University
of Gezira. Population Studies Centre (Wad Medani, Sudan); Sudan.
Department of Statistics. Census Office (Khartoum, Sudan).
Population of the Sudan and its regions: a joint project on
mapping and analysing the 1983 population census data. Project
documentation No. 1. 1983 census. Total populations by region,
province and district. Rev. ed. Oct 1985. 11 pp. Wad Medani,
Sudan. In Eng.
A summary of preliminary results from the 1983
census of Sudan are presented. The data concern population by region,
province, and district.
Location: Encyclopaedia Britannica,
Chicago, Ill. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 70, Feb
1987.
53:20090 University
of Gezira. Population Studies Centre (Wad Medani, Sudan); Sudan.
Department of Statistics. Census Office (Khartoum, Sudan).
Population of the Sudan and its regions: a joint project on
mapping and analysing the 1983 population census data. Project
documentation No. 2. 1983 census. Total population by male, female
and sex ratio for. [1985?]. 14 pp. Wad Medani, Sudan. In Eng.
A summary of preliminary results from the 1983 census of Sudan are
presented. The data concern sex distribution and sex ratio by region,
province, and district.
Location: Encyclopaedia Britannica,
Chicago, Ill. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 70, Feb
1987.
53:20091 Wegman,
Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1985.
Pediatrics, Vol. 78, No. 6, Dec 1986. 983-94 pp. Elk Grove Village,
Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of the vital statistics
of the United States based on official data from the Monthly Vital
Statistics Reports of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).
Global trends are also examined using U.N. published data. Separate
consideration is given to births, marriages and divorces, deaths, and
infant mortality.
Author's address: School of Public Health,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029.
For a previous
review, published in 1985, see 52:20105.
Location: U.S.
National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.
53:20092 Aird, John
S. Future implications of alternative family planning
policies in China. CIR Staff Paper, No. 27, Nov 1986. 18, [10] pp.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research:
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The implications of alternative policies
on fertility control [in China] are explored here by means of a set of
five projections which cover the range of alternatives considered by
the central authorities. The five series differ considerably in the
size of the population totals they generate by 2080; the range is about
700 million, the highest series being almost twice the size of the
lowest. The differences in the degree of aging are not as great; in
the lowest series the proportion aged 65 and over reaches a peak at
27.5 percent in 2050, whereas the highest series peaks at 18.2 percent
in 2040. In all series the proportion of the aged is still high (17 to
19 percent) in 2080." Particular attention is given to projections of
the age distribution and related policy
implications.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20093 Andre,
Robert; Guilmot, Pierre; Pereira Roque, Jose. Regional
demographic projections 1981-2031 in Wallonia. Effects on the labor
force in 2001. [Projections demographiques regionales 1981-2031 en
Wallonie. Effets sur la population active en 2001.] Revue Belge de
Geographie, Vol. 109, No. 3, 1985. 93-122 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In
Fre.
The authors summarize the contents of the report "Analyse de
la Population de la Wallonie et Perspectives a l'Horizon 2031", which
was published by the Regional Ministry for Wallonia, the
French-speaking part of Belgium, in 1983-1984. They describe
population projections for the region up to the year 2031 and their
impact on the labor force up to 2001. Data are from the Belgian census
of 1981. The results suggest that the labor force will not decline in
size before 2001, although it will become increasingly older and will
include more females.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress,
Washington, D.C.
53:20094 Argentina.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (Buenos Aires,
Argentina). Population projections, 1970-2025: urban and
rural population and economically active population by sex and age
group. [Proyeccion de poblacion, 1970-2025: urbana y rural y
economicamente activa por sexo y grupo de edad.] Estudios INDEC, No. 4,
1986. 49 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Official estimates
and projections of the population of Argentina are presented for the
period 1970-2015 by sex, age group, economic activity, and rural or
urban residence.
Location: New York Public Library.
53:20095 Birg, H.;
Brock, R. The stochastic variability of population
projections for regions and for population groups--comparison of
alternative simulation models using the example of the city of
Werne. [Zur stochastischen Variabilitat von Bevolkerungsprognosen
fur Regionen bzw. fur Bevolkerungsgruppen--Vergleich alternativer
Simulationsmodelle am Fallbeispiel der Stadt Werne.] IBS-Materialien,
No. 22, ISBN 3-923340-11-7. 1986. 5, 49 pp. Universitat Bielefeld,
Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik: Bielefeld,
Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The
stochastic variability of population projections is analyzed by
comparing the results obtained from two different projection models: a
unified simulation model and a regional or group simulation model. The
models are applied to 1981 data for the town of Werne, Federal Republic
of Germany. The findings indicate that there is greater stochastic
variability with the group simulation model. The differing levels of
accuracy in population projections for various age groups are
stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20096 Bui Dang Ha
Doan. Mortality decline, demographic projections, and
aging of the population. [Baisse de mortalite, projections
demographiques et vieillissement de la population.] Cahiers de
Sociologie et de Demographie Medicales, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1987.
87-96 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines recent changes
in the number of people over age 65 included in the official
projections of France. Reasons for the significant increase in the
number of the elderly in successive projections are examined. Some
consideration is also given to projections for the Scandinavian
countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20097 Chaudhry,
Mahinder. Comparative study of India's population
projections based on the 1981 census. Demography India, Vol. 15,
No. 1, Jan-Jun 1986. 103-25 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author
discusses seven sets of population projections for India, all of which
were based on 1981 census data. The projections were produced by
Indian government agencies, U.N. agencies, the World Bank, and the U.S.
Bureau of the Census. A comparative analysis is presented of selected
projections of total population size, replacement-level fertility,
gross and net reproduction rates, crude birth and death rates, and life
expectancy at birth. Methodologies and underlying assumptions
concerning future fertility and mortality trends are discussed. In
concluding, the author notes that "the burden of evidence indicates
that India will most likely reach replacement-level
fertility...somewhere during the first decade of the next
century....The future demographic changes in India will be strongly
influenced by three inter-related factors: (i) the family planning
program; (ii) age at marriage for females; [and] (iii) the national
educational level in general and of females in
particular."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20098 Cruijsen,
H. Population forecasts for the Netherlands,
1986-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1986-2035.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 2, Feb 1987. 15-21 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Results of the
1986 official population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented,
and the assumptions made in their preparation are described.
Comparisons are made with forecasts for 1985. Three alternative
variations of the forecasts are included.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20099 de Beer,
J.; van Hoorn, W. D. Methods for short-run population
forecasts: an overview. [Methoden voor korte-
termijnbevolkingsprognoses: een overzicht.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 2, Feb 1987. 22-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A survey of methods used in making
short-term population forecasts is presented. The methods are tested
using recent official Dutch data. The authors conclude that ARIMA-type
models appear to be slightly more accurate than the
alternatives.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20100 de Bowman,
Nivia C.; Garcia, Agustin; de Cantillo, Yadira del C.
Republic of Panama. Population projections by urban and rural
area, according to sex and age group: 1980-2000. [Republica de
Panama. Proyecciones de poblacion por area urbana y rural, segun sexo
y grupos de edad: anos 1980-2000.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin, No.
1, Feb 3, 1987. 42 pp. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo: Panama City,
Panama. In Spa.
These are the results of population projections of
urban and rural areas of Panama. The publication consists of sections
on the estimation of demographic components for the period 1970-1980;
estimation of the urban and rural population by sex and age group for
the same period; and projections of the urban and rural population by
sex and age group to the year 2000, including an analysis of the
results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20101 Denton,
Frank T.; Spencer, Byron G. Population change and the
future labour force: a discussion paper. QSEP Research Report,
No. 187, Jan 1987. 53 pp. McMaster University, Faculty of Social
Sciences, Program for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population:
Hamilton, Canada. In Eng.
The authors examine future population
trends in Canada, with particular attention to labor force changes, in
light of the recent decline in the birth rate. "This paper provides
some projections of likely future changes, places them in historical
context, and discusses some of the implications associated with such
changes....We review briefly the record of population and labour force
growth in Canada and its major regions over the past half century,
noting the major changes that have taken place in age-sex composition
as well as in regional composition. Projections of the future
population and labour force are provided and discussed in section 3,
based on a variety of underlying assumptions. Some implications of the
changes that are in prospect are discussed in sections 4 and 5,
followed by suggestions for a research agenda in section 6." Among the
anticipated developments, assuming no return to high fertility, are the
aging of the labor force and an unprecedented decline in its size.
Tables provide alternative projections for the total population to the
year 2036 under assumptions of high and low fertility, high and low
mortality, and high and low immigration. Population pyramids are
included for the entire labor force, for elementary and kindergarten
teachers, and for physicians.
Publisher's address: Hamilton,
Ontario, Canada L8S 4M4.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
53:20102 Exter,
Thomas. How many Hispanics? American Demographics,
Vol. 9, No. 5, May 1987. 36-9, 67 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
An
attempt is made to estimate the size of the U.S. Hispanic population at
five-year intervals up to the year 2010 using data from official
sources. The author's best guess is that the size of the Hispanic
population will surpass that of the black population in 2015 and
comprise 28 percent of the population in 2080.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20103 Gauthier,
Herve. Three projections of population decline for Quebec:
characteristics and implications for the working population.
[Trois scenarios de decroissance de la population quebecoise:
caracteristiques et incidences sur la population active.] Cahiers
Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 181-212 pp.
Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"After a brief
review of various projections of population decline for Quebec, the
author analyses some previous examples of depopulation, and emphasizes
that public opinion will have to change much if immigration is to be
used as a tool for avoiding population decline. He then investigates
four implications of the projected decline: the size of the working
population, its age and sex structure, the labor force participation
ratio, and the economic dependency ratio."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20104 Levy,
Michel L. Demographic projections. [Les projections
demographiques.] Population et Societes, No. 213, May 1987. 4 pp.
Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In
Fre.
A review of the current status of population projections is
presented on the occasion of the Eighth National Demographic Conference
held in Grenoble, France, in May 1987. Consideration is given to the
current situation concerning projections for the world in general as
well as those for France.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
53:20105 Macura,
Milos; Malacic, Janez. Population prospects for
Europe. In: European Population Conference 1987.
Plenaries/Congres Europeen de Demographie 1987. Seances plenieres,
edited by the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population and the European Association for Population Studies. 1987.
1-45 pp. Central Statistical Office: Helsinki, Finland. In Eng. with
sum. in Fre.
"The object of this paper is to summarize the key
issues of European population prospects and to provide a basis for
discussion....After a brief introduction and a summary of some earlier
work, there follows a section which will deal with the demographic
implications of the [trend] towards population decline which has
prevailed in Europe for some time. Three further sections deal with
the principal population prospects: they are based on a series of
projections, but focus on two models which depict population
stabilization and population decline respectively. In the last section
we examine some fundamental problems raised by the models and comment
on policies and possible remedies."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:20106 Marc,
Nicole; Marchand, Olivier. Projection of the available
active population, 1985-2010. [Projection de population active
disponible, 1985-2010.] Collections de l'INSEE, Serie D: Demographie
et Emploi, No. 118, May 1987. 51 pp. Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one of three publications presenting projections of the
population of France using data from the 1982 census. The present
publication presents projections of the economically active and
school-age population to the year 2010. The results forecast a slowing
in the rate of growth of the labor force over the next 15 years and a
subsequent decline in numbers.
For a related publication by Quan-Chi
Dinh and Jean-Claude Labat, published in 1986, see 53:10116.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20107 May, John
F. Regional population projections for Fiji
(1976-2001). Departement de Demographie Working Paper, No. 131,
ISBN 2-87085-107-3. 1986. 37 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain,
Departement de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur:
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
Population
projections are presented for Fiji by race and region for the period
1976-2001 based on 1976 census data.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:20108 Mexico.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica [INEGI]
(Mexico City, Mexico); Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO]
(Mexico City, Mexico); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Mexico: population
estimates and projections, 1950-2000. [Mexico: estimaciones y
proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2000.] ISBN 968-809-550-8. Oct 1983. v,
36 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
Population estimates and
projections are presented for Mexico from 1950 to 2000. Data are from
official sources available up to 1981. The estimates for 1950-1980 are
first presented by age and sex, together with summary vital statistics
data and abbreviated life tables. Two alternative projections by year,
sex, and age group are also included. The first alternative involves
fertility estimates under the assumption that national population
policy goals are met; the second involves higher fertility estimates,
assuming that the goals are not achieved.
Location: New
York Public Library.
53:20109
Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling
Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population
projections for the Netherlands, 1986-2035. A supplement to the
population projections for the Netherlands, 1984-2035.
[Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1986-2035. Supplement bij
bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1984-2035.] 1986. 8 pp. Voorburg,
Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Revised population
projections for the Netherlands are presented up to the year 2035.
These projections are a supplement and a revision of those for the
period 1984-2035.
For the projections referred to, published in
1985, see 52:10137.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20110 Panama.
Direccion de Estadistica y Censo (Panama City, Panama).
Republic of Panama: population projections for provinces and
districts, by sex and age: 1980-1990. [Republica de Panama:
proyecciones de poblacion por provincia y distrito, segun sexo y edad:
anos 1980-1990.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin, No. 970, Mar 11, 1985.
102 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
This publication contains
population projections by sex and age for each district and province of
Panama for the period 1980-1990. A brief analysis of the results is
also included.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20111 Poullain,
Genevieve; Bui Dang Ha Doan. Demographic projection of the
corps of doctors in France (1985-2040). [Projection demographique
du corps medical francais (1985-2040).] Cahiers de Sociologie et de
Demographie Medicales, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1987. 3-85 pp. Paris,
France. In Fre.
The author reports the results of projections of
future trends in the number of doctors in France. These projections
were undertaken on behalf of the Ministry of Health in 1985.
Consideration is given to the consequences of different university
recruitment policies. In the second part, consideration is given to
the total numbers of general physicians and medical specialists. In
the third part, the authors examine these projections in the general
context of the health systems of industrialized countries. The
methodology used in making these projections is described in an
annex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20112 Rein,
Detlev B. Population development, economic growth, and the
labor market. Projections in the report on population development in
the Federal Republic of Germany: tasks and limitations.
[Bevolkerungsentwicklung, Wirtschaftswachstum und Arbeitsmarkt.
Modellrechnungen im Bericht uber die Bevolkerungsentwicklung in der
Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Aufgaben und Beschrankungen.] Deutsche
Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft Mitteilungen, Vol. 64, Nov
1984. 80-91 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This article focuses on the population projections developed for an
official report on population trends in the Federal Republic of
Germany. The report was issued in 1980 by the Working Group on
Population Questions. The present article deals with the objectives,
design, limitations, and advantages of the projections, which extend up
to the year 2030.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20113 Saw,
Swee-Hock. New population and labour force projections and
policy implications for Singapore. Research Notes and Discussions
Paper, No. 61, ISBN 9971-988-55-0. 1987. v, 65, [30] pp. Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies: Singapore. In Eng.
Population and labor
force projections for Singapore are presented based on 1985 official
data. Three separate projections are presented using alternative
hypotheses concerning fertility. The separate assumptions are an
increase in fertility to replacement level as envisaged in Singapore's
current population policy, a continuation of fertility at its present
level, and a further decline of fertility based on past trends. The
author concludes that the achievement of population policy goals will
involve making abortion and sterilization laws more restrictive,
changing policies concerning incentives and disincentives, and altering
the emphasis of the family planning program from demographic to social
welfare objectives.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:20114 United
Nations. Secretariat (New York, New York). Chinese
population growth in a global perspective. Population Bulletin of
the United Nations, No. 17, 1985. 39-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The present paper is intended to discuss how the United Nations
has utilized the 1982 population census (including the 10 per cent
sample tabulations) and other relevant data obtained from China in
order to assess the current and future population growth in the
country, and also to examine how the demographic trends of the world
may change according to the alternative demographic paths China may
take in the future." Following an analysis of the 1981 upturn in
fertility, "three variants of population projections were prepared on
the assumption that the present effectiveness of government
interventions on the reproductive behaviour of the population will
remain unchanged in the future. More specifically, the percentage of
women who already had one child and pledged not to have any more, that
is, 42.3 per cent, was used, in conjunction with parity progression
ratios obtained from the 1982 census, as guidance to project future
fertility trends. In addition, three variants were added to reflect
the possible intensification or relaxation in the implementation of the
population policy by the Government in the
future."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20115 Dumas,
Jean. And then, the dinosaurs disappeared... [Et
puis, les dinosaures ont disparu...] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie,
Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 267-75 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with
sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper starts by putting the present
fertility decline experienced by many industrialized countries, in a
global prospect of social evolution, and shows to what extent this
decline is a new phenomenon. Using a so-called 'infernal' scenario,
wherein Canadian fertility continues to fall, the author then
emphasizes that society would have at its disposal a remarkably long
delay for bending the path leading to extinction, although some forces
may also lead to an acceleration of the demographic
decline."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20116 Henripin,
Jacques; Pelletier, Louis. A quarter of Quebecois born
outside Quebec 100 years from now? [Un quart d'allogenes au Quebec
dans 100 ans?] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct
1986. 227-51 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The authors examine the implications of reliance on immigration to
halt the probable onset of population decline in the Canadian province
of Quebec. The results indicate that achieving a growth rate of either
one percent or zero growth involves a large increase in immigration and
that the percentage of the population born outside the province would
reach a high level in both cases.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:20117 Kamiar,
Mohammad. Population size, distribution and growth in
Iran. Population Geography, Vol. 7, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1985. 1-17
pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The author examines population size,
distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data,
and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper
discusses changes in the size of population through time, population
distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23
provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large
family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the
Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common
practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even
faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into
the national development plans."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:20118 Kowaleski,
Jerzy T. Factors in the increase of the Australian
population, 1911-1984. [Skladniki przyrostu ludnosci Australii w
latach 1911-1984.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/85, 1986. 51-63 pp.
Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author examines
natural increase and migration in Australia from 1911 to 1984. During
this period, with the exception of the years 1949 and 1950, natural
increase contributed more to population growth than did net migration.
Net migration has, however, contributed an increasing amount to total
population growth in Australia since World War II; the author suggests
that if the fertility of recent immigrants is taken into account,
migration may be accountable for more than 50 percent of the population
increase. It is noted that this trend may continue as growing numbers
of immigrants come from regions with traditionally high fertility
levels.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:20119 Teitelbaum,
Michael S. Depopulation: science and politics. [La
depopulation: science et politique.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie,
Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 167-79 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with
sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper is structured around four
propositions about population decline: (1) discussions about
population decline have been plagued with confusion about the very
meaning of the topic, as well as about causes, consequences and policy
measures; (2) the issue is closely tied to political ideologies and
cultural values; (3) demographic data and methods, and some prominent
demographers, have played central roles in the debate; (4) the future
of fertility is even murkier than usual, and therefore the legitimacy
of concerns about population decline is not
obvious."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
