53:10780 Alonso,
William. Gravity models. Center for Population
Studies Discussion Paper, No. 86-9, Dec 1986. 6 pp. Harvard University,
Center for Population Studies: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The author reviews the gravity model developed by Stewart in the
1940s to describe observed spatial regularities in populations.
Extensions of the model and subsequent applied works are traced, and
the significance of these types of models is
assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10781 Alonso,
William. Systemic and log-linear models: from here to
there, then to now, and this to that. Center for Population
Studies Discussion Paper, No. 86-10, Nov 1986. 32 pp. Harvard
University, Center for Population Studies: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In
Eng.
The author seeks to "make explicit the link between the
systemic formulation of functional models [for analyzing transition
matrices] and an important family of statistical models, namely those
employing a loglinear approach to the analysis of variance." He
proceeds by summarizing the two types of models, integrating them, and
suggesting some applications.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:10782 Beaumont,
Paul M. ECESIS: an interregional economic-demographic
model of the United States. Pub. Order No. DA8505038. 1984. 504
pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The ECESIS model examines the linkages between interregional
economic and demographic models and determines the importance of those
linkages in simulation and forecasting experiments. Structural
econometric models are built for all fifty states plus the District of
Columbia....This interregional economic system is linked to an
interregional cohort-component demographic accounts model. The
accounts model provides age and sex detail for all fifty-one regions
and estimates all state-to-state migration flows." It is found that
"the economic-demographic linkages do not change the qualitative
properties of the model but do have a significant quantitative impact.
It is also found that the system is quite sensitive to differing
migration submodels but not too sensitive to the demographic accounting
system itself. The model is used to examine the impacts of regional
investment tax credits to stimulate growth in depressed areas and
changes in U.S. immigration policy."
This work was prepared as a
doctoral dissertation at the University of
Pennsylvania.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International,
A: Humanities and Social Sciences 46(1).
53:10783 Clairin,
Remy; Conde, Julien. Handbook for estimating demographic
statistics from incomplete data in developing countries.
Development Centre Papers, Pub. Order No. 38.353. Sep 1986. 266 pp.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD],
Development Centre: Paris, France. In Eng.
This manual is designed
to provide the demographer working with incomplete data with
information concerning the basis for the theoretical methods and
techniques at his or her disposal for demographic analysis, the
calculations needed to apply such methods and techniques, and the
mortality models available. The emphasis is on the practical
application of such methods and techniques to actual data. The
publication is in three parts: the first part is concerned with the
mathematical relations involved, the second part with applications to
observed data, and the third part with the main model life tables
available. The geographic focus is on developing countries
This
document is obtainable on request from the Information-Publications
Service, OECD Development Centre, 94, rue Chardon-Lagache, 75016 Paris,
France.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10784 Gray,
Alan. The missing ages: adjusting for digit
preference. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol. 1, No. 2, Feb
1987. 11-22 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
The author sets forth a
method for adjusting age distributions to eliminate the effects of
digit preference and seeks to overcome a bias present in an approach
developed by Zelnik in 1961. Census age pyramids are derived for
Bangladesh, Libya, and the Australian aborigines for the years 1974,
1973, and 1981, respectively.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:10785 Inaba,
Hisashi. On the discrete model of multiregional
demographic growth. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population
Problems, No. 179, Jul 1986. 1-15 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum.
in Eng.
A discrete, one-sex model of multi-regional demographic
growth is developed. The author considers the conditions under which
this demographic process is strongly ergodic.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10786 Isupov,
Arkady. The United Nations manuals for population
analysis. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 19-20,
1987. 90-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Eight manuals on
population analysis, evaluation, and forecasting, published by the
United Nations between 1952 and 1983, are reviewed. A brief overview
of the subject matter of each manual is provided. "The primary purpose
of the manuals was to help countries to obtain population information
and to assess its quality. It was also intended that the manuals might
be used as teaching materials in the training of population
specialists." The author suggests that given developments in
population statistics and techniques of data calculation, revisions and
updating are needed.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:10787 Keilman,
Nico; Gill, Richard. On the estimation of multidimensional
demographic models with population registration data. Working
Papers of the NIDI, No. 68, Feb 1986. vii, 34 pp. Netherlands
Interuniversity Demographic Institute [NIDI]: Voorburg, Netherlands. In
Eng.
"In this paper the estimation of multidimensional demographic
models and their underlying stochastic processes is investigated in
situations where population registration data are available. With this
kind of aggregate data, estimation by traditional methods is not
possible. We look at two versions of the multidimensional model: the
constant intensities model and the linear integration model. Some
logical inconsistencies in the derivation of the latter are discussed.
In particular, we argue that the linear integration model is not
compatible with a Markov process. A new estimation algorithm for the
estimation of the constant intensities model with population
registration data is proposed. Some preliminary results on the
mathematical and statistical properties of this method are given. The
algorithm is applied to Dutch nuptiality data."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10788 Keyfitz,
Nathan. Heterogeneity and selection in population
analysis. Statistics Canada Research Paper, No. 10, Sep 1984. 30
pp. Statistics Canada, Research and Analysis Division: Ottawa, Canada.
In Eng.
"This paper addresses two particular aspects of
heterogeneity which are of considerable direct relevance to social
science and statistical analysis. One is the effect of heterogeneity
on the error structure of data. The other is the relation between
heterogeneity and the representativeness of certain kinds of aggregate
measures." After a discussion of the impact of heterogeneity on the
assessment of error in data, the author considers heterogeneity and
selection over the life course, with attention to mortality and notions
of frailty over time.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
53:10789 Lam,
David. Lorenz curves and inequality comparisons under
changing population composition. Population Studies Center
Research Report, No. 86-92, Apr 1986. 11 pp. University of Michigan,
Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This paper
analyzes the properties of Lorenz curves produced from combinations of
income distributions. The motivation for the analysis is that many
demographic and economic changes can be modeled as the introduction of
new entrants into some base population. The paper shows that when the
sub-populations have equal means, a number of simple conditions govern
the position of the Lorenz curve for the combined population relative
to the Lorenz curves for the two sub-populations. These conditions
become less regular when the means of the sub-populations differ, and
suggest that a combined distribution will almost never Lorenz dominate
an original distribution. The results point out an important source of
ambiguity in intertemporal inequality
comparisons."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10790 Mukerji,
S. Some methodological issues in demography. In:
Dynamics of population and family welfare, 1985, edited by K.
Srinivasan and S. Mukerji. Dec 1985. 41-71 pp. Himalaya Publishing
House: Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author evaluates and discusses
the limitations of four methods frequently used in demographic
analysis. "The first one deals with the application of the regression
method used for the study of selected predictor variables on fertility,
or the couple protection rate, or any other demographic parameter to be
investigated....The second statistical technique, which has been
assessed and commented upon by the author, is the well-known 'recall
lapse theory', originally proposed by R. K. Som and others, and later
used very widely to correct the data of...surveys to adjust for recall
lapse on children reported born by the respondents for the last period
of the reproductive life."
The author then discusses "the
limitations in the use of the concept of [the] infant mortality rate
for the purposes of drawing inferences on comparative health conditions
of the population, or for studying trends in the health conditions over
time." Finally, the author critically evaluates the use of place of
birth data to study internal migration. Data for India are used to
illustrate the arguments.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
53:10791 Naidenova,
Penka. The population problem in global modeling.
[Problemat za naselenieto pri globalnoto modelirane.] Naselenie, Vol.
4, No. 2, 1986. 34-52 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng;
Rus.
Developments during the past 15 years in population modeling
are critically reviewed. The author notes that while population
variables were treated as endogenous in earlier models developed by the
Club of Rome, later models have treated such variables as exogenous.
The need to link demographic factors to structural changes and economic
growth, in accordance with Marxist-Leninist population theory, is
noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10792 Preston,
Samuel H. The relation between actual and intrinsic growth
rates. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 3, Nov 1986. 343-51 pp.
London, England. In Eng.
"This paper demonstrates that, to a close
approximation, the intrinsic growth rate of a population is equal to
the mean of age-specific growth rates below age T, the mean length of a
generation. This mean is normally close to the growth rate of the
entire population block below age T. Therefore, when a disparity
exists between the intrinsic growth rate and the actual growth rate of
a population (whether or not net migration is included in both rates),
it must be attributable to an unusual growth rate of the population
block above age T. One implication is that the 'momentum of population
growth' is entirely confined to the age span above T, approximately age
28 in developing countries today."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
53:10793 Shah, M.
Rafiq. The use of a piecewise constant proportional
hazards model in issues related to standardisation: a review and some
results. IPD Working Paper, No. 1987-2, 1987. 36 pp. Vrije
Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography:
Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The author examines the piecewise
constant proportional hazards model and its relation to
standardization. "First, the definition of a piecewise constant
proportional hazards model will be followed by the derivation of a
piecewise log-likelihood function (log L). Then it will be shown that
(log L) is equivalent to the one obtained from observations having a
Poisson error structure in a contingency table perspective. Later on,
a log-linear model will be fitted on the data used by Hoem (1979) by
using GLIM (Generalized Linear Interactive Modelling...)for the purpose
of illustration and new interpretation of the parameters of a classical
multiplicative model. Finally, the use of the proposed model will be
commented in the light of various issues of standardisation; in
particular to examine the claim that the proposed model solves the
issues of both direct and indirect
standardisation."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
53:10794 Silcocks,
P. B. S.; Murphy, M. Relative risk estimation from vital
statistical data: validation, a pitfall and an alternative method.
Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol. 41, No. 1, Mar 1987.
59-62 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"A previously described method
of obtaining an estimate of relative risk from routinely available data
was applied to data on cigarette consumption and lung cancer mortality
to test its validity. Some shortcomings of the method were noted and
an alternative approach using weighted logistic regression gave results
closer to those predicted on the basis of other studies, without the
disadvantages of the original technique." The data concern England and
Wales, are from official sources, and pertain to the period
1969-1973
Author's address: Department of Clinical Epidemiology and
Social Medicine, St George's Hospital Medical School, Cranmer Terrace,
London SW17 0RE, England.
For the method referred to, by Valerie
Beral et al., published in 1979, see 46:3848.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10795 Soeradji,
Budi. A sampling frame for population research.
[Kerangka sampling induk untuk penelitian kependudukan.] Majalah
Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 13, No. 25,
Jun 1986. vii-viii, 21-30 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in
Eng.
Questions concerning the selection of an appropriate sampling
frame for the study of population questions in Indonesia are
considered. The author suggests that the sampling frame from the
census is inadequate for reasons of both size and data availability.
It is recommended that using the results of a large demographic survey,
such as the SUPAS Intercensal Survey of 1985, would yield better
results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
53:10796
Vanderhoeft, C. Hidden heterogeneity in composite
link models: further developments. IPD Working Paper, No. 1987-1,
1987. 32 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in
Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The author seeks to provide
an overview of composite link models and the problem of taking into
account unobserved heterogeneity. "Attention is focused mainly on
models for binomial and Poisson data. In Section 2 we discuss an
extension of Thompson and Baker's (1981) composite link model. In
Section 3 we introduce in this model multidimensional hidden
heterogeneity (for binomial and Poisson data). In Section 4 and
Section 5 we discuss approximate models which allow for estimation of
the parameters of the composite link model with hidden heterogeneity.
Section 6 applies the methods in a reanalysis of binomial data used by
Williams (1982) and Poisson data used by Breslow (1984). Finally,
Section 7 introduces a simulation study."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
