Volume 53 - Number 1 - Spring 1987

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

53:10095 Arkadiev, Dimitar. The population of Bulgaria during the Middle Ages (seventh to fourteenth centuries). [Naselenieto na Balgariya prez srednovekovieto (VII-XIV v.).] Naselenie, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1986. 3-11 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
An attempt is made to estimate the population of the territories forming modern Bulgaria in the Middle Ages. The author calculates that the population grew from around 1.1 million in the year 700 to 2.6 million in 1365. The ethnic composition of the population in the year 681, at the foundation of the Slavic-Bulgarian state, is also estimated.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10096 Becchia, Alain. The parliamentary milieu and depopulation from 1900 to 1914. [Les milieux parlementaires et la depopulation de 1900 a 1914.] In: Denatalite: l'anteriorite francaise (1800-1914), edited by the Centre d'Etudes Transdisciplinaires, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales. Communications, No. 44, 1986. 201-46 pp. Seuil: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines parliamentary concern during the period 1900-1914 over the decline in the size of the French population using excerpts from parliamentary debates and documents. The creation of two extra-parliamentary commissions to investigate the problem and the support for pronatalist family policies are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10097 Hernandez, Hermogenes. Costa Rica: territorial developments and the principal population censuses, 1502-1984. [Costa Rica: evolucion territorial y principales censos de poblacion, 1502-1984.] ISBN 9977-64-243-5. 1985. xii, 183 pp. Editorial Universidad Estatal a Distancia [EUNED]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
The development of the population of Costa Rica, its history of settlement, and the growth and changes in administrative areas are traced from the beginning of the sixteenth century to the present day using information from the country's censuses.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10098 Janczak, Julian K. Statistics concerning the population of the Kingdom of Poland (1830-1844). [Statystyka ludnosci Krolestwa Polskiego (1830-1844).] Przeszlosc Demograficzna Polski, Vol. 16, 1985. 25-49 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
Population trends in the Kingdom of Poland from 1830 to 1844 are reviewed. The available data primarily concern sex and religion. Despite the inadequacies of the data, the author is able to estimate broad changes in population size and structure during this period at the national level and for most provinces. Particular attention is paid to inconsistencies in the available data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

53:10099 de Beer, J. Demographic estimates for 1986. [Demografische ramingen voor 1986.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 12, Dec 1986. 57-63 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates for the Netherlands for 1986 are presented. These estimates are based on monthly data on demographic events. They are compared with previous official projections. The author notes that the estimate of total population by January 1, 1987, lies somewhere between the medium and high variant of the 1985 forecast.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10100 Donkov, Kiril. Demographic processes and world population numbers. [Demografskite protsesi i broyat na naselenieto v sveta.] Naselenie, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1986. 12-21 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Recent global population trends are reviewed. The author notes the growing divergence in demographic trends between the developed and developing regions. These differences are analyzed in the light of Marxist population theory.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10101 El-Badry, M. A.; Kono, Shigemi. Demographic estimates and projections. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 19-20, 1987. 35-43 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors present a historical review of U.N. involvement in assessing global population growth and preparing demographic projections for the years 1947-1982. They "review the development of those activities at the Population Division from decade to decade, especially with regard to data collection and evaluation, methods of analysis and projection, frequency and refinement of outputs and the utilization of computer technology....The authors recommend several ways in which the United Nations demographic estimates and projections could be further developed, and the role which they may be expected to play in the future."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10102 Garcia, Agustin; Cubilla, Alvaro. Republic of Panama. Evaluation of the 1980 national census of population and population projections by sex and age: 1950-2025. Methodological report. [Republica de Panama: evaluacion del censo nacional de poblacion de 1980 y proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad: anos 1950-2025. Informe metodologico.] May 1983. x, 168 pp. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo: Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
This report, which concerns the population of Panama, is in three parts. The first part presents an evaluation of available data, including vital statistics and the 1980 census, and provides an estimate of the extent of the undercount. In the second part, the authors use these data to analyze population trends during the period 1950-1980, with separate consideration given to fertility, mortality, international migration, and age and sex distribution. The third part presents four alternative population projections by age and sex up to the year 2025.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10103 Grobbelaar, J. A. The population of Natal/KwaZulu, 1904-2010. Natal Town and Regional Planning Report, Vol. 65, ISBN 0-909232-61-X. LC 85-194206. 1985. 80 pp. Natal Town and Regional Planning Commission: Pietermaritzburg, South Africa. In Eng.
The author describes population trends since 1904 and presents projections to 2010 for the Natal-KwaZulu region of South Africa. The dynamics of the various population groups in the region are considered, but no attention is given to spatial distribution. "The report consists of three main sections. Firstly an historical overview of the population of Natal/KwaZulu as enumerated at various census dates. Secondly, forecasts of the population of the region to the year 2010 and finally an overview of a number of socio-economic consequences of the expected population growth in Natal/KwaZulu to the year 2010 and its policy implications."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10104 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). Current population estimates: Peninsular Malaysia, 1986. [Anggaran penduduk semasa: Semenanjung Malaysia, 1986.] [1986]. [13] pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng; Mal.
Population estimates are presented for Malaysia for 1986. A brief analysis of population trends since 1980 is included.
Location: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand.

53:10105 Rossi, Peter H.; Wright, James D.; Fisher, Gene A.; Willis, Georgianna. The urban homeless: estimating composition and size. Science, Vol. 235, No. 4794, Mar 13, 1987. 1,336-41 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Although homelessness has been recognized as a serious and growing urban social problem, scientifically acceptable methods for estimating the composition and size of the homeless population have been lacking. A new research approach to estimating the size and composition of undomiciled [U.S.] urban populations is presented, and its utility is illustrated through a description of the literal homeless of Chicago. The homeless in the Chicago sample are unaffiliated persons living in extreme poverty, with high levels of physical and mental disability. Homelessness is interpreted as a manifestation of extreme poverty among persons without families in housing markets with declining stocks of inexpensive dwelling units suitable for single persons."
Author's address: Social and Demographic Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003.
Location: Princeton University Library (SQ).

53:10106 Sautory, Olivier. Regional demographic data, 1982. [Donnees de demographie regionale, 1982.] Collections de l'INSEE, Serie D: Demographie et Emploi, No. 115, Nov 1986. 273 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Demographic indicators are computed for various administrative divisions of France using 1982 census data and vital statistics for 1981, 1982, and 1983. The work is divided into two sections. In the first part, the author provides data on age distribution, fertility, mortality, marital status, natural increase, and migration. The second part contains diagrams and maps illustrating the results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10107 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 997, Nov 1986. 7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Population estimates for the years 1980 through 1985 are presented for Puerto Rico, the United States Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10108 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of the United States, by age, sex, and race: 1980 to 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1000, Feb 1987. iii, 59 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population of the United States by single years of age, sex, and race for each year from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1986; comparable census figures are also shown for April 1, 1980. Estimates are shown for the total population including Armed Forces overseas, the resident population, and the civilian population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10109 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). State population and household estimates to 1985, with age and components of change. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 998, Dec 1986. iii, 40 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains provisional estimates of the resident and civilian populations of [U.S.] States for July 1, 1985, revised population estimates for July 1, 1981, through 1984, and components of population change and revised household estimates for States for the 1980-85 period." Annual intercensal estimates by age for 1971 to 1979 are also presented. "This is the first time that estimates of population and households for States have been included in the same issue of Current Population Reports."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10110 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). World population profile: 1985. Pub. Order No. WP-85. LC 86-600584. Oct 1986. vi, 53 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents summary demographic data for 205 countries and territories of the world with a population of at least 5,000 in 1985; and estimates and projections for the world and its regions. Of the 205 countries and territories, 160 are classified as developing and 45 as developed." The primary sources for the data are censuses, surveys, and vital registration systems, supplemented from other sources and adjusted if appropriate. Sections are included on world population trends, regional population trends, fertility, use of contraception, literacy, infant mortality, urbanization and density, and aging.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

53:10111 Assogba, Messan L. N. Perspectives of the Togolese population, 1971-2006. [Perspectives de la population togolaise, 1971-2006.] Etudes Togolaises de Population, No. 6, 1984. 36, [6] pp. Universite du Benin, Unite de Recherche Demographique: Lome, Togo. In Fre.
Data from the 1970 census are used to make population projections for Togo up to the year 2006. The sources of data and hypotheses used concerning trends in fertility and mortality are first described. Five projections based on different fertility assumptions are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10112 Australia. Bureau of Statistics (Canberra, Australia). Projections of the populations of Australia, states and territories, 1984 to 2021. Pub. Order No. 3222.0. May 1985. viii, 180 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
Population projections for Australia, its states, and territories are presented for the period 1984 to 2021. The methodology and assumptions used in preparing the projections are explained. The projections are provided separately by age group and sex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10113 Beekman, John A. Population and social security projections for Bangladesh. Rural Demography, Vol. 11, No. 1-2, 1984. 1-20 pp. Dacca, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The author presents population projections for Bangladesh using data from the 1981 census, U.N. sources, and other official and nonofficial sources. "Confidence intervals for year 1986 and year 2001 populations for Bangladesh are developed. Rural-urban shifts in population are analyzed through Markov chains, and reveal a significant projected redistribution to urban areas. A study is presented of the actuarial cost of a potential social security program designed to meet the financial needs of an increasing set of urban dwellers....Aggregate projected contributions and benefits for the years 1975, 2005, 2015, and 2025 illustrate the possible program."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10114 Bolivia. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (La Paz, Bolivia); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Bolivia: population estimates and projections. Total for the country, 1950-2025; urban and rural, 1970-2000. [Bolivia: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion. Total del pais 1950-2025, urbana y rural 1970-2000.] Fasciculo F/Bol, No. 1; LC/DEM/R.4, Mar 1985. [105] pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections for Bolivia are presented for the period 1950-2025. The report first considers fertility, mortality, and international migration trends separately as a basis for making such estimates and projections. Population projections are then provided for the country as a whole up to the year 2025. The rural and urban populations are then estimated by age and sex and projected to the year 2000.
Location: Stanford University Libraries.

53:10115 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas [INSIE] (Havana, Cuba). Population projections for Cuba and its provinces, 1991-2000. [Proyeccion de la poblacion de Cuba y provincias, 1991-2000.] Sep 1986. 98 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
Population projections are presented by single year of age and sex for each year from 1991 to 2000 for Cuba and its provinces.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10116 Dinh, Quang-Chi; Labat, Jean-Claude. Projection of the total population of France, 1985-2040. [Projection de population totale pour la France, 1985-2040.] Collections de l'INSEE, Serie D: Demographie et Emploi, No. 113, Nov 1986. 93 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Population projections for France by sex are presented up to the year 2040. They are based on the latest official data concerning mortality, fertility, and migration, including the 1982 census. Two alternative hypotheses concerning fertility are presented, one in which fertility remains at the present level of 1.8 and the other in which it rises to the replacement level of 2.1.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10117 Ecuador. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (Quito, Ecuador). Projections for the population of Ecuador by province, canton, area, and age group (1982-1995). [Proyecciones de la poblacion ecuatoriana por provincias, cantones, areas y grupos de edad (1982-1995).] Nov 1985. v, 77 pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
Population projections for Ecuador are presented by province, canton, and area up to the year 1995. The projections by province are provided by age group. Data are from both the census and vital statistics sources.
Location: New York Public Library.

53:10118 Grobbelaar, J. A. Demographic trends in South Africa: 1980-2015. Institute for Futures Research Occasional Paper, No. 3, ISBN 0-7972-0042-8. LC 85-227079. Sep 1984. 37 pp. University of Stellenbosch, Institute for Futures Research: Stellenbosch, South Africa. In Eng.
Probable population trends in South Africa for the period 1980 to 2015 are reviewed using population projections previously developed by the author.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

53:10119 Heida, H. R. Municipal household forecasts according to the PRIMOS-household model. [Huishoudensprognoses per gemeente volgens het PRIMOS-huishoudenmodel.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 10, Oct 1986. 40-6 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The PRIMOS-household model is described. Its application to the formulation of household projections for the Netherlands is reviewed. Household projections up to the year 2000 are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10120 Kravdal, Oystein. Population projections by sex, age, and marital status, 1985-2050. [Framskriving av befolkningen etter kjonn, alder og ekteskapelig status, 1985-2050.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 86/22, ISBN 82-537-2387-3. 1986. 132 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
Official population projections for Norway are presented by sex, age, and marital status up to the year 2050. The projections were prepared using the MAKE model developed by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 1984. The factors affecting such projections are reviewed, including changes in fertility, the increased occurrence of consensual unions and divorce, the decline in the frequency of marriage, increased age at marriage, and changes in mortality and migration. High, medium, and low alternative projections are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10121 Land, Kenneth C. Methods for national population forecasts: a review. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 396, Dec 1986. 888-901 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Three widely used classes of methods for forecasting national populations are reviewed: demographic accounting/cohort-component methods for long-range projections, statistical time series methods for short-range forecasts, and structural modeling methods for the simulation and forecasting of the effects of policy changes. In each case, the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods are described. Factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts are articulated. Promising lines of additional research by statisticians and demographers are identified for each class of methods and for population forecasting generally."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10122 Mode, Charles J.; Pickens, Gary T. Demographic stochasticity and uncertainty in population projections--a study by computer simulation. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 79, No. 1, May 1986. 55-72 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Measuring uncertainty in projections of future natural and human populations is a problem that has been under consideration at least two decades. Demographic stochasticity, the idea that reproduction and survivorship are governed in part by laws of chance, plays a role in this uncertainty. Computer simulation experiments partially reported here suggested that, in large populations with homogeneity in laws of reproduction and survivorship among members of a population, the impact of demographic stochasticity on this uncertainty could be low. But, if the laws of reproduction and survivorship are heterogeneous among members of a population, then demographic stochasticity could be a significant factor in measuring the uncertainty of a population projection, even for large populations."
Author's address: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

53:10123 Mukerji, S. Population projection. Journal of Family Welfare, Vol. 32, No. 2 [mislabeled 3], Dec 1985. 18-29 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"The paper presents a mathematical method for population projection with the following objectives: (i) No assumption should be made about the base period fertility, mortality and migration rates....(ii) The method should provide the estimates of future population(s) along with its standard deviation....(iii) The method should be applicable uniformly for all subpopulations of the total population....[and] (iv) Information requirements for the projection should not exceed the end product." The method is illustrated using data from the 1971 census for India to project the 1981 population.
Location: Population Council Library, New York, N.Y.

53:10124 Nelissen, J. H. M.; Vossen, A. P. A short-term population forecasting model evaluated. [Een prognosemethodiek geevalueerd.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, Nov 1986. 17-50 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The authors present an evaluation of forecasting results obtained using a specific short-term population forecasting model that they had developed previously. "The method developed was rooted in the opinion that--contrary to the conventional projections, based on time series analysis and trend extrapolation--population forecasts should find their point of departure in scientific systems of facts (theories, hypotheses) in which the relation between the forecasting object and its demographic, and especially its non-demographic predictors, is explicitly expressed by means of open, multi-variate regression models....The differences between observed and expected numbers of births, first and non-first marriages, and marriage dissolutions in the Netherlands are analysed....The forecasting results are compared with the results of the official national forecast of the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics and also compared with the results of so called naive projections."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10125 Nepal. Central Bureau of Statistics. Population Division (Kathmandu, Nepal). Population projection of Nepal: national, regional and sectoral, 1981-2001. 1986. viii, 83 pp. Kathmandu, Nepal. In Eng.
Four alternative population projections for Nepal are presented for the period up to 2001. These are the first official projections to take into account the effect of internal migration on regional population dynamics and to provide separate projections for rural and urban areas as well as projections of the labor force and school-age population.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii.; Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10126 Nunez, Leopoldo; Moreno, Lorenzo. Mexico: population projections for urban and rural areas, 1980-2010. [Mexico: proyecciones de poblacion urbana y rural, 1980-2010.] 1986. vii, 120 pp. Academia Mexicana de Investigacion en Demografia Medica: Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for urban and rural areas of Mexico up to the year 2010. The first chapter provides population estimates by age, sex, and area of residence for 1980. Chapters are then included on the estimation and prediction of fertility, mortality, internal migration, and international migration. Finally, the method of projection used is described. The projections are presented separately for rural and urban areas and by sex and five-year age group for each five-year interval from 1980 to 2010.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10127 Pflaumer, Peter. Forecasting the German population with Monte Carlo methods. Economics Letters, Vol. 21, 1986. 385-90 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper presents an approach of constructing confidence intervals by means of Monte Carlo simulation. This technique attempts to incorporate the uncertainty involved in projecting the [West] German population by letting the fertility, mortality and net immigration rates vary as a random variable with a specific distribution. Since fertility and migration are by far the most volatile, and therefore, the most critical components to population forecasting, this technique has the potential of accounting for this uncertainty, if the subjective distributions are specified with enough care."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10128 Proebsting, H. Population forecasts, use, methods, reliability and problems. Use of population forecasts. [Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen, Zweck, Methoden, Zuverlassigkeit und Probleme. Zweck von Bevolkerungsvorausschatzungen.] Lebensversicherungsmedizin, Vol. 38, No. 4, Jul 1, 1986. 102-8 pp. Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The purposes of population forecasts and of the assumptions on which they are based are described. The author concentrates on what can be deduced concerning these assumptions if actual population trends differ from forecasted trends. Consideration is given to various aspects of current projections of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany up to the year 2030.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

53:10129 Sinnig-Prusse, Sabine. Population projection for West Berlin and its districts from 1985 to 1995. [Vorausberechnung der Bevolkerung fur Berlin (West) und die Bezirke von 1985 bis 1995.] Berliner Statistik: Monatsschrift, Vol. 40, No. 7, 1986. 118-33 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Population projections for West Berlin and its districts for 1985-1995 are presented and discussed. Methodological aspects are first outlined. Projections of population size, fertility, mortality, migration, nationality structure, and sex and age structure are then examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10130 Srinivasan, K.; Parasuraman, Sulabha. Population projections for India (under alternative strategies for reaching replacement levels of fertility). In: Dynamics of population and family welfare, 1985, edited by K. Srinivasan and S. Mukerji. Dec 1985. 3-40 pp. Himalaya Publishing House: Bombay, India. In Eng.
"This exercise in population projections is based on the age-sex and marital distribution of India's population as obtained in the 1981 Census (5 per cent samples); the latest available estimates of fertility [and] mortality as obtained from the sample registration data for 1980; and future assumptions of trends in mortality, nuptiality and contraceptive use which will affect marital fertility....The projections have been carried out by three alternative assumptions, namely, achieving the replacement level of fertility by the year 2001 (alternative one), by the year 2011 (alternative two) and by the year 2021 (alternative three)."
The first alternative corresponds with the population policy goals set forth in India's Seventh Five-Year Plan. For each of the three projections, the authors provide "data on the age distribution of the population for the two sexes separately and all the important vital rates, such as the crude birth rate, the crude death rate, the general fertility rate, the gross reproduction rate, the net reproduction rate, at five-year intervals from 1981 to 2021."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10131 Uruguay. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (Montevideo, Uruguay); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Uruguay: population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Uruguay: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/URU, No. 1; LC/DEM/R.3, Mar 1985. 101 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Estimates and projections of the population of Uruguay are presented for the period 1950-2025. They are based on data from the censuses of 1963 and 1975, vital statistics, and the 1976 National Survey on International Emigration. Four alternative hypotheses concerning future fertility trends are considered; the median estimate is used in these projections. The projections are presented separately by age and sex and for rural and urban areas. Life tables by sex for the period 1950-1980 are also included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10132 Zimbabwe. Central Statistical Office (Harare, Zimbabwe). Population projections of Zimbabwe: 1982 to 2032. Jan 1986. iii, 59 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
National population projections are presented for Zimbabwe by age and sex for the period 1982-2032. They are based on data from a 10 percent sample of 1982 census results. Three alternative projections are included.
Location: Population Council Library, New York, N.Y.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

53:10133 Choe, Ehn-Hyun; Byun, Yong-Chan. An overview of population growth and redistribution in Korea: 1966-1985. Journal of Population and Health Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, Jul 1986. 3-23 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Kor. with sum. in Eng.
Trends in population growth and redistribution from 1966 to 1985 in the Republic of Korea are explored using census data. The results indicate a general concentration of population in the major urban areas, although the volume of internal migration has declined over this period.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10134 Gosal, Gurdev S. Recent population growth in India. Population Geography, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1982. 33-53 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to examine in some detail the spatial patterns of population change in India during 1971-81." The author also describes general trends in rural and urban population growth since 1891 and the socioeconomic implications. Figures from the 1961, 1971, and 1981 censuses as well as maps are used to illustrate the trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10135 Gupta, Kamla. Growth and redistribution of population in Uttar Pradesh: a district level study. In: Dynamics of population and family welfare, 1985, edited by K. Srinivasan and S. Mukerji. Dec 1985. 398-438 pp. Himalaya Publishing House: Bombay, India. In Eng.
"The article describes, on the basis of census data, the changes in the population of Uttar Pradesh [India] at the district level during the period from 1901 to 1981. Factors related to inter-district variations in the population growth, and the redistribution of population due to differential growth in the geographical regions, have been included in the analysis. The data used in the study have been taken from the various censuses, agricultural statistics and statistical abstracts published by the State Government."
The authors examine population redistribution "by noting the changes in the percentage share of each district, by drawing Lorenz curves, and calculating concentration ratios and the redistribution index over the 1901-1981 period of time. Population redistribution has also been studied by noting the changes in the mean centre of population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10136 Krishan, Gopal; Kant, Surya. Spurts in India's population growth during the twentieth century: a spatial view. Population Geography, Vol. 6, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1984. 12-25 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The authors study population growth in India and test the assumption that 1921 and 1951 are critical points in Indian population growth. Using official and other published information, they demonstrate that "while the above generalisation did hold good at the all India level, it was found true for only one-third of the districts at the disaggregated level. The relevance of the demographic transition model to India was also examined. The model did apply, in its essence, to the Indian situation but its quantitative parameters, as derived from the Western experience, were not appropriate."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10137 Sawant, S. B.; Khan, Y. S. Some factors influencing variations in the rate of natural increase of population in Western Maharashtra. Population Geography, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1982. 67-75 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
"The paper analyses the impact of various factors on variations in the rate of natural increase of [the] population in Western Maharashtra [India]....The analysis shows that in Western Maharashtra [the] birthrate is high in response to high death rate and high infant mortality rate. It is also revealed that the rate of natural increase of [the] population declines with [an] increase in [the] proportion of working females...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:10138 Singh, R. N.; Chaturvedi, R. P. Dynamics of population growth. Bundelkhand region: a case study. Population Geography, Vol. 6, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1984. 53-65 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
This report on the Bundelkhand region of India presents a historical survey of population growth over the past 80 years. Decades of decrease (1901-1921), decades of moderate increase (1921-1951), decades of rapid increase (1951-1981), and the distribution of the growth are studied. Growth projections are also included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


Copyright © 1987-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.