Volume 52 - Number 4 - Winter 1986

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

52:40794 Beretta, Carlo. Age structure and population growth. [Struttura per eta e crescita della popolazione.] Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vol. 93, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1985. 405-15 pp. Milan, Italy. In Ita.
The age structure of a population is examined as one of the elements affecting its homogeneity. A theoretical model is developed in order to illustrate the problem.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40795 de Beer, J. Trends. [Trends.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 8, Aug 1986. 24-31 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Trends in live births and immigration in the Netherlands are examined over the period 1976-1985. The focus is on alternative ways to account for seasonal variations. These include the use of quarterly data, the calculation of a three months moving median, the calculation of a moving average after elimination of outliers, the use of a cubic spline function, and fitting a linear function.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40796 Diamond, Ian D.; McDonald, John W.; Shah, Iqbal H. Proportional hazards models for current status data: application to the study of differentials in age at weaning in Pakistan. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 4, Nov 1986. 607-20 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Survival analysis can be used to study the association between a set of explanatory variables and the age at which an event of interest, say weaning, occurs. As retrospectively reported age data often contain serious reporting errors, many analysts prefer to use current status data. In this paper, the authors discuss two approaches to fitting survival models to current status data from the Pakistan Fertility Survey. A generalized linear model approach, using constrained maximum likelihood estimates, proves computationally expensive, so a transformation of the baseline hazard is modeled, using spline function."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40797 Dionne, Claude. The estimation of matrices of mobility at a given moment in time from matrices of resulting mobility. [Estimation de matrices de mobilite du moment a partir de matrices de mobilite resultante.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 14, No. 1, Apr 1985. 121-5 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
Two methods for the estimation of matrices of mobility for a given population in the period preceding a census or survey are presented. The primary concern here is with geographic mobility, or migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40798 Doeve, Wim. Regional population analysis in developing countries: the creation of a database for Thailand. In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 344-66 pp. George Allen and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
The author discusses the problems involved in creating an adequate data base for the application of multistate demographic theory to regional population analysis in developing countries. The criteria and procedure for the establishment of a benchmark integrated data base are described, and some preliminary results from the application of generalized multistate demographic theory to Thailand are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40799 Keyfitz, Nathan. Applied mathematical demography. Springer Texts in Statistics, 2nd ed. ISBN 0-387-96155-0. LC 85-16430. 1985. xxi, 441 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
This book is one in a series of three textbooks on the mathematical development of demography. The focus is on applications to demographic problems rather than on the mathematics involved. Chapters are included on population without age; the life table; variations in the sex ratio of mortality; the applications of stable theory to a fixed regime of mortality and fertility; birth and the intrinsic rate of natural increase; reproductive value, with applications to migration, contraception, and zero population growth; understanding population characteristics; projection and forecasting; some types of instability; the demographic theory of kinship; and micro-demography.
This edition also includes new chapters on the multistate model, family demography, and heterogeneity and selection in population analysis. An epilogue entitled "How do we know the facts of demography?" is also included.
For the first edition, published in 1977, see 44:2037.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40800 Krishnan, Parameswara. On a method of robust standardization. Janasamkhya, Vol. 3, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1985. 67-72 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"The need of summary measures of the incidence of a phenomenon independent of age structure (composition) and other compositional factors is noted in demographic literature. One such index is developed in this paper. A standardized index is defined as robust, if it is least sensitive [to] the age structure of the standard population. The Banerjee-Stuvel price index is shown to have this property by a computer simulation experiment."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40801 Mader, R. A model for the developmental prognosis of the age structure of a population in different phases of health status development. [Model pro prognozu vyvoje vekove struktury obyvatelstva v ruznych fazich vyvoje zdravotniho stavu.] Ceskoslovenske Zdravotnictvi, Vol. 34, No. 5, May 1986. 218-24 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
A model for investigating the impact of alternative age distributions of a population on the availability of health services is presented. The model, MULTISPOM, is used to demonstrate the progressive changes in the health status of a theoretical population over time.
Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

52:40802 Paradysz, Jan. Parameters of the distribution of women according to the number of children in hypothetical birth cohorts. [Parametry rozkladu dzietnosci teoretycznych w hipotetycznej generacji kobiet.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 1/83, 1986. 79-98 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author attempts to prove that "the total fertility rate is the mean in the women distribution by the number of children. Our approach makes it possible to calculate all other parameters describing this distribution such as : median, mode, moments, and the measures of variance, skewness, and excess." The method is tested using official Polish data for the period 1970-1983.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40803 Poirier, Jean; Dagenais, Huguette; Gregory, Joel W. Demography and the feminist approach. A methodological reflection based on research in progress. [Demographie et approche feministe. Reflexion methodologique a partir d'une recherche en cours.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 14, No. 2, Oct 1985. 277-83 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
The authors describe a new approach to the study of the status of women based on experience gained during an interdisciplinary research project conducted in Guadeloupe. The method involves the development of a separate questionnaire to study women's labor force participation in a capitalist developing economy. The relevance of this differential approach by sex for demographic research as a whole is noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40804 Richtering, Jurgen. Modelling fertility and mortality rates in the framework of a demographic-economic model. UNCTAD Discussion Paper, No. 15, 1986. 35 pp. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development [UNCTAD]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"This paper presents a demographic-economic model that is only concerned with the socioeconomic explanations of fertility and mortality levels; it also makes suggestions about the way in which these global demographic indicators can consistently be translated into age-specific fertility and mortality rates. The model does not deal with migration, nor does it have a labour market system. The study is based on data for the mid-1970s, covering 100 countries having a population of over 1 million."
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

52:40805 Slater, Paul B. Large scale data analytic studies in the social sciences. 1986. 153 pp. University of California, Community and Organization Research Institute: Santa Barbara, California. In Eng.
This volume contains 12 studies, "each attempting to discern structural patterns in some large data set of socioeconomic relevance. The methodologies employed, as well as the data sets analyzed, vary widely. The subject matters include housing prices, trade flows, input-output transactions, metropolitan mortality rates, interstate as well as intercounty migration, international migration and air travel, world population distribution and citations between 4,000 scientific journals."
Among the techniques utilized are "analysis of variance; singular decomposition; graphical representations; hierarchical clustering; multidimensional scaling; the max-flow min-cut network algorithm; biplots; entropy measures; and polynomial and spline smoothing. The stress throughout is on the exploration and probing of data."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40806 Wolter, Kirk M. Some coverage error models for census data. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 394, Jun 1986. 338-46 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Alternative models are presented for representing coverage error in surveys and censuses of human populations. The models are related to the capture-recapture models used in wildlife applications and to the dual-system models employed in the vital events literature. Estimation methodologies are discussed for one of the coverage error models."
After a discussion of the theory underlying the methodology, "distinctions are made between two kinds of error: (a) sampling error and (b) error associated with the model. An example involving data from the 1980 U.S. census is presented. The problem of adjusting census and survey data for coverage error is also discussed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).


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