K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

K.1. Economic Development and Population

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

52:40689 Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H. World population crisis. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 42, No. 4, Apr 1986. 13-9 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
This is the introductory article to a special issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which is concerned with worldwide population growth. In this paper, the authors present an overview of the current global demographic situation and emphasize the economic and environmental impact of rapid population growth. A table is included containing information for individual countries on population size, population growth rates, per capita GNP, military share of the budget, life expectancy for men and women, adult illiteracy rates, and abortion restrictions for most of the countries of the world.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40690 Gosovic, Branislav. Population-resources-environment-development interrelationships in the United Nations: in search of an approach. CEPAL Review, No. 23, Aug 1984. 135-54 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng.
The relationships among population, resources, the environment, and development are reviewed, with the focus on how such questions are dealt with in the United Nations system. Emphasis is on the complexities of the issues raised rather than on their resolution.
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

52:40691 Preston, Samuel H. Are the economic consequences of population growth a sound basis for population policy? In: World population and U.S. policy: the choices ahead, edited by Jane Menken. ISBN 0-393-02419-9. LC 86-12803. 1986. 67-95 pp. W. W. Norton: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"This chapter will review some of the evidence currently available on the economic consequences of high versus low fertility." The primary focus is on whether the economic consequences of population growth are a sound basis for the development of population policies. The analysis presented uses concepts of welfare economics. The question of whether the combined effects of individual decisions concerning fertility justify the development of policies that go beyond enabling couples to reach their childbearing goals is raised.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40692 Rotberg, Robert I.; Rabb, Theodore K.; Schofield, Roger S.; Wrigley, E. Anthony. Population and economy: population and history from the traditional to the modern world. Studies in Interdisciplinary History, ISBN 0-521-32540-4. LC 85-26945. 1986. 219 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This collection of papers by various authors deals with aspects of the changing relationships between population and the economy during the period of industrialization. Of the eight papers included, seven are concerned with the demographic and economic history of England and one with the Netherlands. These papers were published in the Journal of Interdisciplinary History, Vol. 15, No. 4, Spring 1985; most have been cited individually in Population Index. In each paper, some aspect of the empirical data presented by E. Anthony Wrigley and Roger S. Schofield in their study entitled "The Population History of England, 1541-1871: A Reconstruction" is used to analyze the interactions of demographic patterns and early modern economies.
For the book by Wrigley et al., published in 1981, see 48:10658.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

52:40693 Abegaz, Berhanu. Mass poverty, demography, and development strategy: a selective survey. In: The economic demography of mass poverty, edited by Berhanu Abegaz. Studies in Third World Societies, No. 29, LC 85-073339. Sep 1986. 1-54 pp. College of William and Mary, Department of Anthropology: Williamsburg, Virginia. In Eng.
This article is "a selective survey of the major economic and demographic characteristics of mass poverty. It examines the theoretical issues involved in identifying and aggregating poverty, assesses the extent of international inequality and national poverty, and explores the demography of mass poverty from several theoretical perspectives by focusing on the relationships between income distribution processes and demographic processes. It concludes with a set of general policy implications."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40694 Abegaz, Berhanu. The economic demography of mass poverty. Studies in Third World Societies, No. 29, LC 85-073339. Sep 1986. xiv, 142 pp. College of William and Mary, Department of Anthropology: Williamsburg, Virginia. In Eng.
This issue "is devoted primarily to the analysis of the demographic dimensions of 'mass' poverty in societies undergoing the process of economic development, and in some cases, economic involution....The four papers in this volume discuss various facets of the poverty-demography interaction: the rationale for the desired family size of the poor, the problems of attaining such size, and the effect of family size/structure on household economy and the future well-being of the children of the poor."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40695 Bloom, David E.; Freeman, Richard B. The effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in developing countries. Center for Population Studies Discussion Paper, No. 86-6, Aug 1986. 58, [16] pp. Harvard University, Center for Population Studies: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This article examines the principal effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in the developing economies of the world. On the supply side of labor markets, we discuss the lags between population growth and labor force participation; the independent effects on labor supply of accelerated population growth due to changes in fertility, mortality, and migration; patterns and trends in labor force participation rates; and gender differences in labor supply behavior. On the demand side, we focus on the way in which the nature of labor markets in developing economies, including government and privately induced wage distortions and rigidities, conditions their labor absorption capacity."
The authors find that "despite the unprecedented magnitude of population growth and the existence of imperfections in labor markets, developing economies tended to shift between 1960 and 1980 from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity service and industrial sectors and, albeit with some exceptions, to raise real income per capita. For the remainder of this century, we conclude that forecasted population growth can likely be accommodated provided the developing economies generate human and physical capital investments of comparable relative magnitudes to the past two decades."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40696 Bloom, David E.; Freeman, Richard B. The effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in developing countries. Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1986. 381-414, 611, 613 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article examines the principal effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in developing economies. On labor supply, issues treated include the lags between population growth and labor force participation; the independent effects on labor supply of accelerated population growth due to changes in fertility, mortality, and migration; patterns and trends in labor force participation rates; and gender differences in labor supply behavior."
Concerning labor demand, the focus is on the factors that affect labor absorption capacity. "Despite unprecedented population growth and imperfections in labor markets, developing economies between 1960 and 1980 tended to shift from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity service and industrial sectors and to raise real income per capita. For the remainder of this century, forecast population growth can likely be accommodated, provided the developing economies generate human and physical capital investments of comparable relative magnitudes to the past two decades."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40697 Coale, Ansley J. Population trends and economic development. In: World population and U.S. policy: the choices ahead, edited by Jane Menken. ISBN 0-393-02419-9. LC 86-12803. 1986. 96-104 pp. W. W. Norton: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author reexamines the question of the relationship between population growth and economic development that was raised in the book by Coale and Edgar M. Hoover entitled "Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries." Data on the rate of increase in per capita income from 1960 to 1982 for the major regions of the developing world are presented and compared with the rate of increase in population, the total fertility rate in 1982, reductions in fertility between 1952 and 1982, and the proportion of the population under age 15.
He concludes that, at least with regard to the situation in India and Mexico, "it does seem obvious that the welfare and the prospects of the children who have been born during these [past] thirty years would be better if fertility had declined beginning thirty years ago rather than remaining constant until very recently."
For the book by Coale et al., published in 1958, see 25:1004.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40698 El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. A century of demographic and socioeconomic dynamics in Egypt: a time series analysis. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 215-20 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The purpose of the present paper is to help elucidate the mechanisms and reasons behind demographic changes in Egypt during the century from 1882 to 1981, using the Box-Jenkins time series technique....This paper initiates the application of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) time series analysis, to data on demographic and socioeconomic variables."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40699 Fricke, Thomas E. And another to plough the fields...economy, demography, and the household in a Tamang village of North Central Nepal. Pub. Order No. DA8415555. 1984. 380 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This case study of an agro-pastoral people in the Nepal Himalaya focuses on the role of population in their adaptation to a marginal mountain environment. It provides an example of the integration of household, economy, and fertility among a people at the earliest extreme of the demographic transition....Analysis centers on the overlapping systems of reproduction and production in the context of the household."
Data are from a census of the village of Timling, marriage and fertility histories from 152 Tamang women, household economic histories, life histories, and clan histories. "Analysis shows Timling's fertility to be the result of a combination of social and biological factors, especially marital exposure and breastfeeding. The expression of fertility is then related to the household developmental cycle and its implications for changing household fortunes through time. Finally, population growth is shown to follow from the organization of village economy in an environment that encourages diversification."
This work was presented as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(7).

52:40700 Gregory, Peter. The myth of market failure: employment and the labor market in Mexico. ISBN 0-8018-3343-4. LC 85-45927. 1986. viii, 299 pp. Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland/London, England; World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author challenges the accepted view that Mexican employment conditions have not improved and have even deteriorated over recent years. The focus is on the earnings of workers at the bottom of the nonagricultural wage structure of rural-urban migrants and of urban unskilled workers in general. Estimates are made of the flow of migrant labor to the United States. The effects on employment of the recent economic crisis are also considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40701 Karakhanov, M. K. The noncapitalist way of development and population issues. [Nekapitalisticheskii put' razvitiya i problemy narodonaseleniya.] 1983. 237 pp. Izdatel'stvo Fan Uzbekskoi SSR: Tashkent, USSR. In Rus.
This monograph is concerned with the experience of the Central Asian republics of the USSR regarding the relationship between population factors and socioeconomic development. The author criticizes Western theorists for ignoring Soviet experience in this area in their analyses of such relationships in developing countries.
Location: State University of New York at Binghamton, N.Y.

52:40702 Khan, Qaiser M. Poverty and household responses in rural Bangladesh. In: The economic demography of mass poverty, edited by Berhanu Abegaz. Studies in Third World Societies, No. 29, LC 85-073339. Sep 1986. 55-71 pp. College of William and Mary, Department of Anthropology: Williamsburg, Virginia. In Eng.
The author "explores the linkages between rural poverty and demographic behavior using 1976-77 data from the Rural Poverty Survey of Bangladesh. He finds that an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between household size and landholdings; that poorer households show a tendency to have greater excess mortality for female children; and that poverty is seen to limit viable options especially for the lowest segments of the poor by trapping them in an abject state of deprivation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40703 Lin, Rui-sui. Relationships among demographic, social, and economic variables and their policy implications in Taiwan. Journal of Population Studies, No. 9, Jun 1986. 35-59 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"Using 1980 census and related demographic data of Taiwan, this study aims to analyze the relationships between demographic parameters and socio-economic development and their dimensions. The results of zero-order correlation and factor analysis show that closed relationships exist between areal characteristics. Three factors are extracted, namely, demographic processes and socio-economic development, population growth and socio-economic burden, and marital maladjustment and secondary industry. The result of one-way analysis of variance indicates that disparity exists among four planned regions. The study reveals some implications of policy."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40704 Mason, Andrew. Population growth, economic development, and family planning. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol. 1, No. 1, Nov 1986. 1-6 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
The relationships among population growth, economic development, and family planning are examined, using examples of Asian countries that have achieved success in economic development, including Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand. The results indicate that "both development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in the countries studied, and that fertility decline stimulated the development process."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40705 Meyer, David R. System of cities dynamics in newly industrializing nations. PSTC Reprint Series, No. 86-12, [1986]. 22 pp. Brown University, Population Studies and Training Center: Providence, Rhode Island. In Eng.
The author develops a conceptualization of the dynamics of the system of cities in newly industrializing countries. "A four-stage synthesis is proposed for the dynamics of the system of cities of a less-developed nation which undergoes industrialization. The synthesis is assessed with evidence from the newly industrializing Asian nations of Korea, Malaysia, and Taiwan."
As an extension to the notion of regional development involving a core-periphery polarization, "the four-stage synthesis suggests that economic development in the periphery may occur even while the primate city maintains its hegemony over control and coordination functions. Peripheral industrial growth does not challenge this hegemony. The growth of industrial cities is, instead, part of a process of regional specialization in which the low cost labor in the periphery becomes an attraction for industry."
This article is reprinted from Studies in Comparative International Development (New Brunswick, N.J.), Vol. 21, No. 1, Spring 1986, pp. 3-22.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40706 Odell, Mary E. Price or production? Domestic economies, household structure, and fertility in a Guatemalan village. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 125-43 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relationship between domestic economies and fertility in the village of Aguacatan in western Guatemala....The relationship between productive strategy and fertility [is] examined using a multiple regression model allowing for the separate evaluation of child cost/utility and income." Data are from a survey of 250 households and field research conducted between 1973 and 1976.
The results "support Easterlin's contention that the transition to controlled fertility depends not only on the desirability of children but on the availability and cost of contraception....[as well as] Caldwell's...observation that in the absence of economic gain from fertility restriction, people will have as many children as behavioral constraints allow."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40707 Osman, Mohamed. Evaluation of the Population and Development Program's impact on family planning in rural Egypt. Pub. Order No. DA8415312. 1984. 205 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose of this dissertation is to assess the impact of the Population and Development Program (PDP) on family planning practice [in rural Egypt]. The PDP is an action program to implement the national population policy by means of integrating development and population programs in rural communities."
Data from a 1979 national rural fertility survey are analyzed to examine the relationship between contraceptive prevalence and PDP, having controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The author concludes that "although the apparent impact of the PDP was in the right direction, the size of this impact was so small that our analysis gives little support to the development approach to fertility reduction, at least insofar as this can be measured in the short run."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Cornell University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(5).

52:40708 Peterson, Jeannie. A new Africa dawning. Populi, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1986. 4-19 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The current population situation in Africa is reviewed. The author states that although the continent is relatively underpopulated, rates of food production and socioeconomic growth have not kept pace with population growth. The growing awareness by African countries of the need for population policies is noted, and the need for outside assistance from the UNFPA and others is pointed out.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40709 Preston, Samuel H.; Donaldson, Peter. Population growth and economic development. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 1, No. 2, Jun 1986. 3-12 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to answer eight questions related to the difference that lower fertility would make to various aspects of national development. It suggests that the conventional indicators of economic progress usually will improve faster when population growth slows."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40710 Sirageldin, Ismail. The potential for economic-demographic development: whither theory? Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 1, Spring 1986. 1-42 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
The relationship between economic development and population dynamics is explored. Demographic trends in less developed countries are first examined, with particular reference to Arab countries. Next, consideration is given to various demographic paradigms in order to identify the role of population dynamics in their various structures. The relevance of these paradigms to the Arab experience is then discussed. The article concludes with a review of policy and theory implications.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40711 Suarez, Maria M.; Torrealba, Ricardo; Vessuri, Hebe M. C. Social change and urbanization in Venezuela: recent studies. [Cambio social y urbanizacion en Venezuela: estudios recientes.] 1983. 318 pp. Monte Avila Editores: Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
This book contains eight papers by different authors concerning industrialization and urbanization in Venezuela since 1930. Topics considered include past patterns of spatial distribution, rural-urban migration and changes in employment structure, and social conditions and technological change in Venezuelan agriculture. In addition, case studies for four towns are included, dealing with agricultural laborers, public health and modern medicine, capitalist development and the economy, and government practices and social change.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:40712 Sun, Chenghua; Lan, Yijiang. A preliminary study on the population size of the Xiamen Special Economic Zone. Population Research, Vol. 3, No. 1, Jan 1986. 32-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author discusses population size in relation to economic development of the Xiamen (China) Special Economic Zone. Xiamen is compared with 14 coastal cities in terms of total population, urban population, and labor productivity, and with Hong Kong and Singapore in terms of population density. After reviewing the water resources, electricity supply, and urban area of the Xiamen Special Economic Zone, the authors project population size for the year 2000. They conclude with suggestions on how to increase the population size to meet the needs of economic development.
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 4, 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40713 Wang, Maoxiu. Commodity production and population control in rural areas. Population Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Apr 1986. 9-14 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author focuses on the relationship between population control in rural areas in China and the shift from farming to rural commodity economies involving forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, commerce, transportation, construction, and industry. The need for rural economic development, improved rural education, population programs appropriate to local conditions, and a greater number of qualified family planning workers is considered.
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 2, 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

52:40714 Ben-Porath, Yoram. The entwined growth of population and product: 1922-1982. David Horowitz Research Program on the Israel Economy Discussion Paper, No. 85.03, May 1985. 34 pp. Maurice Falk Institute for Economic Research in Israel, David Horowitz Research Program on the Israel Economy: Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng.
"This paper deals on an aggregate level with the interactions between Jewish immigration and the economic growth of the Jewish sector in Mandatory Palestine and the economy of Israel." The primary focus is on the period from 1922 to the present. "The evidence certainly supports the notion that the economic stagnation of the past decade had a demographic component. After half a century of extraordinarily rapid growth in population, total product, and per capita product, the slowdown in population growth and the stagnation in productivity growth (in spite of continued growth in the capital stock) must have reinforced one another."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40715 Dumont, Gerard-Francois; Chaunu, Pierre; Legrand, Jean; Sauvy, Alfred. Aging France: the conditions for renewal. [La France ridee: les conditions du renouveau.] Collection Pluriel, 2nd rev. ed. ISBN 2-01-012273-9. 1986. 371 pp. Hachette: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a revised edition of a study on demographic aging and its consequences for France. The first chapter describes the process of demographic aging in France. Next, the social, economic, and political consequences of this process are analyzed. The fact that these demographic trends are without precedent is then considered. The reasons why this situation has been ignored are examined, and its causes are reviewed. The book concludes with suggestions for informing the public about the seriousness of current demographic trends and for developing policies to change them.
For the first edition, published in 1979, see 45:4041.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40716 Hampe, Peter. Pensions, 2000: long-term financing problems of old-age insurance and approaches to a solution. [Renten 2000: langerfristige Finanzierungsprobleme der Alterssicherung und Losungsansatze.] Akademiebeitrage zur Politischen Bildung, Vol. 14, ISBN 3-7892-7267-1. 1985. 124 pp. Gunter Olzog: Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This publication contains selected papers from a conference on the long-term problems of financing old-age pensions in the Federal Republic of Germany. The emphasis is on problems caused by demographic trends such as the aging of the population and an increasing dependency burden. One of the papers, by Heinz Grohmann, deals specifically with demographic development and the financing of old-age insurance. The author first provides projections of population trends to 2050 and their effects on pensions under unchanged economic and legal conditions. Comparative projections assuming different economic and legal conditions are then presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40717 Islami, Hivzi. Observations on the transformation and socio-demographic structure of the rural population in Kosovo. [Zapazanja o preobrazaju i problemima socijalno-demografske strukture seoskog stanovnistva SAP Kosovo.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 22-23, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1984-1985. 99-114 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the socioeconomic, demographic, and cultural changes occurring in rural Kosovo, Yugoslavia, since World War II. Trends in literacy, urbanization, education, health services, and transportation are described; persistently high infant and child mortality rates are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40718 Isupov, A. Population and development in the USSR. Populi, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1986. 50-60 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The relationship between population and development in the USSR since 1917 is reviewed. The author describes the social policies that have been adopted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40719 Pekevski, Boro. Demographic trends in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia and the influence of socioeconomic development. [Demografska kretanja SR Makedonije pod uticajem drustveno-ekonomskog razvoja u zemlji.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 113-21 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
Population trends in Macedonia, a constituent republic of Yugoslavia, are examined using data from official sources for the period since World War II. Consideration is given to the relationship between population growth and the growth of national income. Comparisons are made between Macedonia and the rest of Yugoslavia, with particular regard to fertility and infant mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40720 Pflaumer, Peter. Population, households, consumption: statistical analysis and forecast. [Bevolkerung, Haushalte, Konsum: statistische Analyse und Prognose.] Campus Forschung, Vol. 507, ISBN 3-593-33674-X. 1986. iv, 218 pp. Campus: New York, New York/Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"In the first sections of this publication the effects of demographic changes on consumer demand are explored, using data of the United States from 1929 to 1979. Procedures of time series analysis, especially spectral and cross spectral analysis, are applied to economic and demographic variables. The results indicate that the coherence is high between both growth in number of households and growth of consumption and between growth in aggregate income and in aggregate consumption. One main finding is that the demographic variable household is at least as important as the economic variable income in explaining variations of consumer demand."
The remaining sections deal with various methods of projecting populations and households. Methods examined include ARIMA time-series models, the Easterlin hypothesis, and a simulation version of the cohort-component method with stochastic vital rates. The methods are applied to data for the United States.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40721 Ross, Eric B. Potatoes, population, and the Irish famine: the political economy of demographic change. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 196-220 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This essay seeks to clarify the political economic dynamics underlying the rise and fall of Irish fertility between 1725 and the late 19th century, which were expressed most dramatically in the Irish Famine of 1845-49...." The author concludes that the Malthusian perspective on this period is erroneous and that the fertility shifts were "responses to major alterations in the character of Ireland's colonial economy...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40722 Wagner, Gert. Comments on the essay of Peter Pflaumer, considering the uncertainty with regard to the capital financing of old-age pensions. [Anmerkungen zum Aufsatz von Peter Pflaumer, die Berucksichtigung der Unsicherheit bei der kapitalgedeckten Finanzierung der Renten.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1986. 153-60 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The author comments on an article by Peter Pflaumer concerning future population trends and rates of old-age pension contributions in the Federal Republic of Germany. A reply by Pflaumer is also included (pp. 157-60).
For the article by Pflaumer, published in 1984, see 51:20632.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

52:40723 Hayden, Brian. Resources, rivalry, and reproduction: the influence of basic resource characteristics on reproductive behavior. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 176-95 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper specifies some relationships between resource availability and population growth." The author discusses the conditions under which cooperation is adaptive and those under which competition emerges using the examples of post-Pleistocene hunter/gatherers, the nineteenth-century Yukon gold miners, and participants in the Industrial Revolution.
He then proposes "that population levels should exhibit slow or minimal growth levels in cooperative societies, whereas in competitive societies there should always be strong pressure to overproduce offspring. The surplus population may then either be held in check via warfare or other cultural means, or if additional resources can be easily acquired, the surplus population may expand rapidly into new areas."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40724 Talbot, Lee M. Demographic factors in resource depletion and environmental degradation in East African rangeland. Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1986. 441-51, 611-3 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"In the developing countries of Africa, rangelands comprise over half the land area and support a large human population dependent on grazing livestock. Increasing populations of pastoralists require larger numbers of livestock, causing overgrazing and range degradation. Additionally, the influx of agricultural peoples reduces the amount of land available to pastoralists for grazing and denies them needed water."
The example of the nomadic, pastoral Masai of East Africa is used to illustrate this process. "While their own population and livestock have increased significantly, half the recent increase in human numbers in the rangeland has come from immigrant farmers. The resultant overgrazing has reduced the carrying capacity for livestock and people, leading to catastrophic famines during the three recent droughts in which 75-90 percent of the livestock and thousands of Maasai died."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

52:40725 Bloom, David E. Women and work. American Demographics, Vol. 8, No. 9, Sep 1986. 24-30 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
The author suggests that the rise in the number of working women is probably the single most important change that has ever taken place in the U.S. labor market. The need for adjustments in the workplace to accommodate this change is emphasized.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40726 Kempeneers, Marianne. When demography considers women's work. [Quand la demographie s'interesse au travail des femmes.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 14, No. 2, Oct 1985. 147-64 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The purpose of this paper is to outline the various approaches to women's work adopted in social sciences, and to suggest that the one developed in demography for studying the interrelationship between work and fertility represents an important methodological contribution." The geographic focus is worldwide. In particular, the author notes the value of the longitudinal approach used in demography.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40727 Lemine, Brahim V. M. Size, structure and dynamics of the labour force in Mauritania, 1977. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 333-56 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author uses 1977 census data for three regions of Mauritania to examine the size, structure, and dynamics of the labor force. Crude, refined, and age-specific employment rates are presented, and the unemployment rate is discussed. The sectoral distribution, employment status, and educational characteristics of the sedentary labor force are analyzed, and an employment life table for males is constructed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40728 Luo, Sheng. An economic appraisement and a comparative study on the Wuxi population of 1980. Population Research, Vol. 3, No. 1, Jan 1986. 19-26, 44 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author uses the life table method to calculate labor force participation and employment life spans of the population of Wuxi, China, and to analyze the difference in labor force participation life span between the Wuxi and Hong Kong populations. Also calculated for the Wuxi population are lifetime income and consumption, the age of economic balance (when cumulative income equals cumulative consumption), and the best economic age (when cumulative net income is largest). Data are from a 1980 pilot census in Wuxi and from published statistics for 1981.
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 2, 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40729 Marchand, Olivier. The working population will begin to diminish just after the year 2000. [La population active commence a diminuer juste apres l'an 2000.] Economie et Statistique, No. 190, Jul-Aug 1986. 41-54, 87, 89 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Future labor force trends in France are examined using official data. It is projected that the rate of growth of the labor force will slow over the next 15 years, that the size of the labor force will start to decrease after the year 2000, and that the labor force will become progressively older and have more elderly dependents to support.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40730 Nurkovic, Safet. Regional differences in the level of economic activity of the population of the Socialist Republic of Montenegro in 1981. [Regionalne razlike u nivou ekonomske aktivnosti stanovnistva SR Crne Gore u 1981. godini.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 122-6 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
Changes in population dynamics and the level of economic activity in Montenegro, a constituent republic of Yugoslavia, in 1981 are described using data from the 1981 census and other official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40731 Robertson, Matthew. A longitudinal perspective on the unemployment experience of principal applicant immigrants to Canada: 1977-1981. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986. 37-56 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of the unemployment experience of immigrants to Canada (principal applicants) for the 1977-1981 period. The analysis is based on longitudinal labour force (unemployment insurance) data and operational data relating to the immigration process overseas. The results indicate that immigrants have a structurally similar distribution of post-entry unemployment experience, with the exception of those immigrants with an arranged job who tend to have lower expected unemployment duration."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40732 Saint-Pierre, Marie H. Specificity of female unemployment. [Specificite du chomage des femmes.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 14, No. 2, Oct 1985. 165-83 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author develops the argument that "female unemployment should not be tackled in the same way as male unemployment because women's situation within the family and in the labor market is different. The author proposes a new vision of female unemployment, taking into account the dialectical situation experienced by women because of their double role, in the sphere of reproduction as well as in the sphere of economic production." The primary geographic focus is on the situation in Quebec.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40733 Sommerfeldt, Petra. Regional trends in the labor force participation of women from 1972 to 1978. [Die regionale Entwicklung der Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen 1972 bis 1978.] Raumforschung und Raumordnung, Vol. 44, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1986. 1-14 pp. Cologne, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Trends and regional differences in female labor force participation in the Federal Republic of Germany are examined using data from the 1972 and 1978 micro-censuses. The analysis is carried out for three separate age groups (women aged 15-24, 25-44, and 45-64) and 45 economic regions. The impact of behavioral changes and demographic changes on female labor force potential is also assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40734 Spector, Lee C. The effects on the unemployment rate of changes in the size and composition of the labor force. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 241-5 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to determine whether increases in the percentage of women in the labor force...increase the natural rate of unemployment. The analysis takes place within the context of a complete macroeconomic model that controls for changes in the size of the labor force." The model is estimated using data for the United States for the years 1947-1981.
"The labor force is found to be positively related to the actual and natural rates of unemployment....The percentage of women in the labor force is found to be inversely related to the actual and natural rates of unemployment."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40735 Supple, Terry S. The coming labor shortage. American Demographics, Vol. 8, No. 9, Sep 1986. 32-5 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
The impact of the recent decline in fertility on the U.S. labor force is explored. The author notes that the number of adolescent workers has already decreased and will continue to do so in the near future. The ways in which industry will cope with these trends are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40736 Tovo, Maurizia C. The determinants of female labor force participation: a new model. Pub. Order No. DA8417043. 1984. 255 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author examines female labor force participation and creates "dynamic models that predict at the same time labor force participation, fertility, and attitudes about sex roles and work. Three simultaneous equation models based on a large national sample of women in their twenties (n = 11,387) are analyzed separately for married, never married, and formerly married women to assess the interaction of marital status with other determinants of labor force participation. In addition, race interactions are tested by performing separate analyses for whites, blacks, and hispanics."
The author finds that "marital status and race interactions are present; in particular, fertility has a positive effect on never married white women, no effect on formerly married white women, and a negative effect on the remainders; in all cases, the effect of employment on fertility is stronger than the opposite effect....Finally, an unexpected negative influence of employment on liberality is found."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Vanderbilt University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(5).

52:40737 Urban, Jan. Population trends and employment in the European CMEA countries. Czechoslovak Economic Digest, No. 4, Jun 1985. 42-51 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Eng.
Recent trends in population growth and employment are reviewed for the countries of Eastern Europe and the USSR, which are members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA). The author notes that in the late 1970s and 1980s the population growth rate declined, with a consequent reduction in the rate of increase in the labor force, and even a decline in employment in some countries. Future labor force trends are also considered. The author concludes that increases in productivity will have to compensate for the lack of increase in the size of the labor force.
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.