F. Fertility

F.1. General Fertility

52:40241 Ahlburg, Dennis A. A relative cohort size forecasting model of Canadian total live births. Social Biology, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1986. 51-6 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"A model of fertility determination is presented in which current fertility is a nonlinear function of the fertility of previous generations. This model seems to be an adequate representation of post-war fertility in Canada and forecasts a renewal of fertility in the 1980's and 1990's. It would seem that policy decisions based on the unchallenged assumption of a continuance of low fertility may be ill-advised."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40242 Ahlburg, Dennis A. Commodity aspirations in Easterlin's relative income theory of fertility. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1984. 201-7 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This paper presents the preference ordering that underlies Easterlin's relative income theory of fertility. Commodity aspirations are a key component of the theory and the paper explores how the introduction of commodity aspirations into the utility function affects the consumption of commodities and bearing of children. The formation and empirical specification of commodity aspirations are also discussed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40243 Ahmed, Bashir-Ud-Din. Determinants of fertility in Bangladesh: desired family size, natural fertility, and contraceptive use. Pub. Order No. DA8426890. 1984. 199 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study examines the determinants of fertility in Bangladesh, applying multiple linear regression and logit analysis to data from the World Fertility Survey. It is found that "desired family size was influenced by both individual-level and community-level variables....The cumulative level of natural fertility was negatively influenced by age at first birth, second birth interval, breastfeeding in the last closed interval, secondary sterility and pregnancy wastage; it was positively influenced by child mortality. Motivation for fertility regulation, defined as the difference between the potential family size and desired family size, and the cost of regulation were the two important determinants of contraceptive use."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of California, Berkeley.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(9).

52:40244 Al-Osh, Mohamed. Birth forecasting based on birth order probabilities, with application to U.S. data. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 395, Sep 1986. 645-56 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"A model for birth forecasting based on prediction of the so-called 'birth order probabilities' is constructed. The relation between this model and recent models of fertility prediction is derived. Birth forecasts with approximate probability limits for the U.S. for the period 1983-1997 are generated. The performance of the proposed model in predicting future fertility is tested by fitting time series models to part of the available series (1917-1982) and ultimately generating birth forecasts for the remainder of the period, then comparing these forecasts with the actual data."
The accuracy of the fertility forecasts made are compared with those made by other methods.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:40245 Al-Sibai, M. Hisham; Khwaja, Suraiya S. Parity, related sociodemographic factors and contraceptive use in Saudi Arabia. Biology and Society, Vol. 3, No. 3, Sep 1986. 130-5 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Parity and associated sociodemographic factors were studied in 1,250 Saudi female patients. 23.8 per cent of the study group were para 3 or more and a significant relationship between high parity and low education background of the couple was observed. The use of contraception was significantly more in educated and economically healthy multiparous women simply for the reason of spacing the pregnancies."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40246 Alexander, Paul. Labor expropriation and fertility: population growth in nineteenth century Java. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 249-62 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
The author argues against the usual Malthusian perspective in explaining the sharp increase in Java's population after 1830. He presents a labor demand hypothesis suggesting that "the arduous work women began to undertake [as a result of colonial government crop cultivation demands] made it increasingly difficult to breastfeed their children for extended periods. As the average period of breastfeeding fell, the average period of postpartum abstinence declined and fertility increased." Breast-feeding and postpartum abstinence in the contemporary Central Javanese population are briefly discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40247 Anderton, Douglas L.; Bean, Lee L.; Willigan, J. Dennis; Mineau, Geraldine P. Adoption of fertility limitation in an American frontier population: an analysis and simulation of socio-religious subgroups. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1984. 140-59 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This paper investigates a late nineteenth-century fertility transition in a predominantly Mormon population of the western United States. A unique set of longitudinal data composed of 31,500 computerized family genealogies is drawn upon to examine a number of problems identified in reappraisals of fertility transition research....Four subcohorts, differentiated by religious commitment and exposure to urban influences, are examined over the course of the transition."
A model developed by Bongaarts is used to examine the collective effect of changing proximate determinants of fertility. "Despite wide subcohort variation in cross-sectional levels of fertility over time, simulation results suggest a similar absolute longitudinal decline in fertility levels, parity at which contraception was initiated, and maximum birth parities for all four subcohorts. The implications of these results for future analyses and the desirability of individual level data are discussed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40248 Arnold, Fred; Pejaranonda, Chintana; Choe, Minja Kim. Subject report No. 4. Provincial level fertility estimates for Thailand, 1965-1979: an application of the own-children method. Pub. Order No. N-Rep-No. 1-85. [1985?]. [13], 21, 71 pp. National Statistical Office: Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng; Tha.
This is the fourth in a series of reports presenting analyses of the data from the 1980 census of Thailand. It presents an application of the own-children method of fertility estimation. "The estimates of total fertility rates and age-specific fertility rates for all women for the period of 1965-1979 are reported annually for each of the 71 provinces, 4 regions, Bangkok Metropolis, and the Whole Kingdom. The estimates are also reported for municipal areas and non-municipal areas of each province, region, and the Whole Kingdom. In addition, the Coale-Trussell m-index of marital fertility control is estimated for the three 5-year periods preceding the 1980 Census for each changwat (province)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40249 Asociacion Demografica Costarricense. Departamento de Investigaciones Sociodemograficas (San Jose, Costa Rica). Advance results: survey of fertility and health, EFES-86. [Avance de resultados: encuesta de fecundidad y salud, EFES-86.] Jun 1986. [31] pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Some preliminary results from a fertility and health survey carried out between January and April 1986 in Costa Rica are presented. The survey covered approximately 3,500 participants living in rural and urban areas. Data on contraceptive usage are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40250 Athanassenas, Georges A. Seasonal variation of births in Greece. Temporal changes and regional differences over a 24-year period. Chronobiologia, Vol. 12, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1985. 351-7 pp. Milan, Italy. In Eng.
"The seasonal variation of birth rates in Greece was studied for the years 1956-1979. The relatively constant pattern of the period 1956-1974 (with peak in January and February) turned abruptly into a new one (peak in May-July) for the following years. Whereas the seasonal variation of the first period could be explained as an effect of sociocultural (religious) factors on the rate of conceptions, no explanation was found for its change or for the new pattern. Regional differences between NW and SE Greece were also studied. Seasonal factors and their changes were almost similar in both regions."
Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

52:40251 Beck-Gernsheim, Elisabeth. From fertility decline to the new maternalism? On private and political interests in the child. [Vom Geburtenruckgang zur neuen Mutterlichkeit? Uber private und politische Interessen am Kind.] Die Frau in der Gesellschaft, Vol. 3754, ISBN 3-596-23754-8. 1984. 214 pp. Fischer Taschenbuch: Frankfurt am Main, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This book focuses on why the decision to have children has become so problematic for many couples in industrialized countries and why, against a background of fertility decline and unemployment, children have become a political issue. The geographic emphasis is on the Federal Republic of Germany. Chapters are included on the desire for children in modern society, the relationship of women's roles and emancipation to fertility decline, delayed motherhood, different types of research on fertility decline, and recent family policies emphasizing women's roles in the home.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40252 Bhattacharya, B. N.; Nath, D. C. Desired family size--a parity dependent model and its application. Janasamkhya, Vol. 3, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1985. 9-27 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"A model for number of births is developed incorporating the practice of contraceptives and [their] effectiveness, the chances of induced abortion and of undergoing sterilisation following spontaneous or induced abortion or live-birth and the span of time after live birth to undergo sterilisation which varies among females. All these factors are assumed to depend on both parity and desired family size of a female. The model is used for measuring the percentage reduction in total fertility when several family planning programmes are in operation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40253 Bhattacharya, B. N.; Nath, D. C. On some bivariate distributions of number of births. Sankhya: Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B, Vol. 47, No. 3, Dec 1985. 372-84 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
"This paper presents probability models to describe the variation in number of live birth-conceptions to a group of females in two consecutive segments of the reproductive period. In derivation of the models, it is assumed that the parameters considered in the models remain constant in each segment but may differ between the segments. The models utilize the observed distribution of women according to the number of births given in two consecutive segments arranged in a bivariate table, providing more cells with significant number of observations for estimating the fertility parameters. A procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of some of the parameters is given."
The models are applied to data for 977 Indian women surveyed in the 1978 Rural Developments and Population Growth Sample Survey.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40254 Bongaarts, John. The transition in reproductive behavior in the third world. Center for Policy Studies Working Paper, No. 125, Aug 1986. 29 pp. Population Council, Center for Policy Studies: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This is a review of the basic changes in reproductive behavior that occur during fertility transitions. The relatively high pretransitional fertility levels are shown to be well below their potential maximum. This is due to the restraints imposed by biological factors (e.g., sterility and spontaneous abortion) as well as by behavioral factors (e.g., breastfeeding and postpartum abstinence). Chronic malnutrition and poor health are not considered major determinants of fertility." The geographic focus is on the contemporary developing world.
"The timing of the onset of the fertility decline depends on an interaction between changing traditional and modern birth limitation practices. To obtain a sustained fertility decline, the rise in contraceptive practice early in the transition has to more than offset the fertility enhancing effect that arises from the abandonment of breastfeeding and abstinence. Once the transition has been initiated, fertility usually declines substantially, but in a growing number of populations fertility has been leveling off well above the replacement level. Convergence of actual and desired fertility and imperfect birth control are considered to be the main causes of this stalling."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40255 Bongaarts, John. The transition in reproductive behavior in the third world. In: World population and U.S. policy: the choices ahead, edited by Jane Menken. ISBN 0-393-02419-9. LC 86-12803. 1986. 105-32 pp. W. W. Norton: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
The author examines reproductive behavior and fertility patterns and their biological and social determinants in pre-transitional, transitional, and mid-transitional societies. Factors considered include marriage patterns, spontaneous abortions, breast-feeding, and sterility. The chapter concludes with a review of likely future trends in fertility and their implications for contraceptive practice.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40256 Boyle, Kerrie E.; Starr, Thomas B. Survival models for fertility evaluation. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 80, No. 392, Dec 1985. 823-7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Two proportional hazards models for cohort fertility evaluation are constructed. Time-dependent covariates describe sources of heterogeneity between and within women regarding fertility characteristics. In the first model, U.S. birth rates specific to maternal age, race, parity, and birth cohort are used as underlying hazard rates. Covariate effects are estimated by maximizing the full likelihood. In the second model, covariate effects are estimated via Cox regression with stratified underlying hazard rates regarded as unknown nuisance parameters."
The authors illustrate the models "with an evaluation of the fertility histories of the wives of workers at a manufacturing plant with potential for hazardous exposure. Adjustments to the U.S. birth rates for maternal age and parity zero experience are required with the first approach. Then, despite differences in the model-specific estimation procedures, the point estimates of the exposure effect and the estimated standard errors from the two models are practically equivalent."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

52:40257 Brainard, Jean M.; Overfield, Theresa. Transformation in the natural fertility regime of Western Alaskan Eskimo. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 112-24 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper documents fertility trends in four Western Alaskan Eskimo villages for three 10 year time periods: (1) 1945 through 1954, at which time these villages were largely isolated from Western contact; (2) 1955 through 1964, a decade during which Public Health nursing, bottle feeding, generally improved living conditions and a steadier year-round food supply were introduced; and (3) 1965 through 1974, the decade in which birth control information and products were first made available....We shall show that with the changes occurring in the period 1954-1965 infant mortality declined markedly and that fertility increased dramatically and that over the period 1965-1974 fertility has fallen, but without initiating fertility transition."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40258 Cao, Jingchun. The effect of the development of a commodity economy on fertility trends in the countryside. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 4, Jul 29, 1985. 16-9 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The results of a survey concerning the impact of a commodity-oriented economy on fertility trends in China are presented. The survey was conducted in an area consisting of 13 rural counties in Liaoning province. The author concludes that such economic trends will affect fertility by decreasing desired fertility, increasing the educational level of the peasant population, raising women's political and economic status, and improving social welfare.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40259 Centro de Estudios de Poblacion y Paternidad Responsable [CEPAR] (Quito, Ecuador). Fertility in Ecuador: comparative results from the surveys on fertility in 1979 and maternal and infant health and demographic variables of 1982. [Fecundidad en el Ecuador: resultados comparativos de las encuestas de fecundidad de 1979 y materno infantil y variables demograficas de 1982.] Dec 1984. 30 pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
Results of two recent demographic surveys conducted in Ecuador are analyzed and compared with particular reference to the demographic characteristics of Ecuadorian women of childbearing age, reproductive preferences, knowledge of contraceptive methods, practice of breast-feeding, and use of maternal and infant public health services.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40260 Centro de Estudios de Poblacion y Paternidad Responsable [CEPAR] (Quito, Ecuador). Women, employment, and fertility in Ecuador. [La mujer, el empleo y la fecundidad en el Ecuador.] Jul 1985. 116 pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
This is an analysis of the relationship between women's employment and fertility in Ecuador based on a review of the published literature. Consideration is given to the experience of other countries and to the policy implications for Ecuador.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40261 Challier, Marie-Christine. Fertility in France: a microeconomic analysis. [La fecondite en France: analyse microeconomique.] Sciences Sociales, ISBN 2-222-03773-5. 1985. 196 pp. Editions du CNRS: Paris, France. In Fre.
A microeconomic analysis of fertility in France is presented. The first part of the study is concerned with fertility behavior given a known future, a situation in which the couples concerned have a clear grasp of the values of the factors involved in fertility decisions. Consideration is given to decisions about both family size and the timing of births. In the second part, the author discusses the decision-making process when the factors considered are not clearly understood. She examines changing fertility behavior since the ancien regime, individual preferences when the future is unclear, and the timing of births in the framework of an uncertain future. The implications of the analysis for French population trends as a whole are outlined.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:40262 Chu, Hung-Ling; Adamchak, Donald J. Fertility decline in Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong: testing demographic transition theory. Population Review, Vol. 30, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1986. 53-70 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
"The purpose of this research was to review fertility trends over time in three rapidly developing nations (Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong) to see whether their models of fertility transition confirm or reject the proposition of classical demographic transition theory." In addition to structural modernization variables, demographic factors and family planning factors are incorporated to test their direct and lagged effect on fertility.
"The multiple regression analysis confirmed that the combination of modernization, demographic components and family planning application were conducive in reducing the fertility rate rapidly after the transition began. However, the timing and magnitude of the contribution of these dimensions were different. Modernization was a significant pathway to lower fertility in both periods studied. Demographic variables played a more significant role later in the transition, while family planning application added little to explained variance in both periods."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40263 Cleveland, David A. The political economy of fertility regulation: the Kusasi of Savanna West Africa (Ghana). In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 263-93 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes high and increasing fertility among Kusasi intensive cultivators living in Bawku District in the extreme northeastern corner of Ghana....[The author uses a] model developed by John Bongaarts...to show that increasing proportions of married women and decreasing post-partum infecundability contribute to the observed increase in fertility. The most important determinant of increasing fertility has been decreasing postpartum abstinence."
The author discusses changes over the past 50 years in "the political economy, social organization, and agricultural ecology....[He then analyzes] the mechanisms by which these large scale changes have affected individual behaviors and decision-making, and how these in turn have modified the proportion of Kusasi women married, and the length of their postpartum infecundability."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40264 Cliquet, R. L. The fourth Flemish fertility survey (1982-1983): first results--first implications. CBGS Werkdocument, No. 13, 1985. iii, 42 pp. Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudien [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The author summarizes the main issues covered by the 1982-1983 Flemish Survey on Family Development (NEGO IV), in which 3,101 women aged 20-45 were interviewed concerning their sexual and reproductive histories.
"Information is presented about the following themes: mating behaviour, fecundity and related matters, parenthood and child wish, birth control, achieved fertility, and employment and fertility. Implications are discussed about the findings on changes in mating behaviour, contraceptive practice, and fertility. With respect to the last issue attention is given to the discrepancy between desired and achieved fertility, and to the quantitative and the qualitative consequences of present trends in reproductive behaviour."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40265 Crimmins, Eileen M.; Easterlin, Richard A. The estimation of natural fertility: a micro approach. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1984. 160-70 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"The estimation of natural fertility has heretofore been confined to population aggregates. This paper presents a technique for estimating natural fertility at the household level for developing countries with some practice of deliberate family size limitation and applies it to micro-level WFS data for Sri Lanka and Colombia for females aged 35-44 in intact marriages. The technique is based on a proximate determinants equation estimated as part of a model that takes account of the interdependence between use of fertility control and natural fertility."
In order to evaluate the results, "the mean and household level estimates of natural fertility for each country are first compared with actual fertility; then mean estimates for each country are compared with macro-level estimates of natural fertility based on three other methods. Finally, the implications of the analysis for the proximate sources of intercountry and intracountry variations in natural fertility are examined. The results suggest that the present approach yields plausible quantitative estimates of natural fertility and reasonable analytical results."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40266 Crosbie, Paul V. Rationality and models of reproductive decision-making. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 30-58 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the case for rationality in reproductive decision-making." Several rationality models and theories are described and evaluated, and alternatives to rationality arguments are considered. The models are tested using survey data for 221 currently sexually active female college students, 43 married and 178 unmarried. The results "give empirical support to the arguments against the rationality models: while people may hold a priori preferences for their behavior, these preferences do not solely or even largely determine their behavior."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40267 de Beer, J. A. A. Time series models for projecting age-specific fertility rates. [Tijdreeksmodellen voor de extrapolatie van leeftijdsspecifieke vruchtbaarheidscijfers.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 7, Jul 1986. 45-52 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The applicability of two time series models for forecasting age-specific fertility rates in the Netherlands is assessed using official data for the period 1971-1984. These models, the CARIMA and APC-ARIMA models, are shown to project total fertility rates up to five years ahead equally well. However, the CARIMA model is more accurate if parity-specific rates are used.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40268 Dyson, Tim; Murphy, Mike. Rising fertility in developing countries. In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 68-94 pp. George Allen and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
The authors review evidence that increases in fertility levels prior to fertility decline among developing countries have been widespread. They apply reference cycle analysis and partial correlation analysis to crude birth rate series in order to describe common fertility trends. Registration data and data from the World Fertility Survey for selected developing countries are summarized and reinterpreted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40269 Engelen, Theo; Hillebrand, Hans. Changing fertility: a family reconstruction in Breda, 1850-1940. [Vruchtbaarheid in verandering: een gezinsconstructie in Breda, 1850-1940.] Tijdschrift voor Sociale Geschiedenis, Vol. 11, No. 3, Aug 1985. 248-89 pp. Leiden, Netherlands. In Dut.
A family reconstruction approach is used to examine changes in fertility in the Dutch city of Breda over the period 1850 to 1940.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:40270 Even, William E. The relationship between married women's labor supply and fertility decisions. Pub. Order No. DA8428241. 1984. 212 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"Two issues relevant to the analysis of the consequences of family formation for married women's labor market behavior are examined. The first addresses a disparity in the empirical literature regarding the measured effect of children upon married women's labor market behavior. The [disparity is]...between studies which assume fertility decisions are exogenous to the labor supply decision and those which do not." The author develops a model to test the hypothesis that assuming fertility decisions to be exogenous creates simultaneous equations bias.
"The fact that married women's careers are often interrupted immediately following childbirth provides the impetus for the second issue examined. Hazard functions are used to analyze the determinants of variations in the duration of this interruption. Included in the list of factors which are found to play an important role are the woman's prior labor market history, occupation, age, number of children, and husband's income."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Iowa.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(9).

52:40271 Farnos Morejon, Alfonso. The decline of fertility and its future perspectives in the context of demographic trends in Cuba. [La declinacion de la fecundidad y sus perspectivas en el contexto de los procesos demograficos en Cuba.] 1985. 36 pp. Universidad de la Habana, Vicerrectoria para las Ciencias Economicas, Centro de Estudios Demograficos [CEDEM]: Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This is a summary of a doctoral dissertation on the fertility decline in Cuba. An analysis of the fertility decline in 169 municipalities for the periods 1978-1980 and 1980-1982 is presented. The results indicate that approximately 71 percent of municipalities had fertility levels below replacement level.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40272 Ford, Kathleen. The diverse fertility of Caribbean, Central, and South American immigrants to the United States. Sociology and Social Research, Vol. 70, No. 4, Jul 1986. 281-3 pp. Los Angeles, California. In Eng.
An analysis of the fertility of U.S. immigrants from the Caribbean, Central America, and South America is presented using data from the one percent samples of the 1970 and 1980 U.S. censuses and the cohort parity increment method developed by Coale and Trussell. The results indicate that fertility rates of immigrant women were much lower than fertility rates in the sending countries; however, they were higher than fertility rates for women born in the United States.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:40273 Freed, Stanley A.; Freed, Ruth S. Fertility, sterilization, and population growth in Shanti Nagar, India: a longitudinal ethnographic approach. Anthropological Papers of the American Museum of Natural History, Vol. 60, No. 3, Jun 18, 1985. 229-86 pp. American Museum of Natural History: New York, New York. In Eng.
An analysis of population dynamics in a northern Indian village from the late 1950s to 1983 is presented. The data are primarily from ethnographic fieldwork, supplemented by census data and a 1983 survey on sterilization. The focus of the study is on survivorship, defined as the average number of living children per mother, and on the number of children a couple decide to have before undergoing sterilization. "Analysis of the Shanti Nagar data shows that women of completed fertility in the 1970s had more living children than comparable women in the 1950s, and that even the sterilized couples of the 1970s had only slightly fewer children than the almost entirely noncontracepting women of the 1950s."
Although age at sterilization is declining, the average couple accepting sterilization has more than four children. "An analysis of the relationship to fertility of various modernization variables, such as urbanization and enhanced economic status, fails to show any consistent correlation of such variables with reduced fertility." However, there is some indication that female school attendance has the potential to reduce fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:40274 Gasana, Gaspar R. Some aspects of fertility in Nairobi. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 573-607 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The main objectives of the study are as follows: (i) to establish recent levels and patterns of fertility in Nairobi [Kenya]; and (ii) to investigate fertility differentials and determinants." Data are from a 1978 survey conducted by the Cairo Demographic Centre; the limitations of the data are briefly discussed. Current fertility estimates are based on direct estimation from reported live births and on indirect estimation using either the P/F Ratio Method or the Relational Gompertz Model. Fertility differentials are analyzed in terms of nuptiality, sociocultural, migration, and socioeconomic variables. The results of a multiple regression analysis based on some of the variables are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40275 Grundy, Emily. Migration and fertility behaviour in England and Wales: a record linkage study. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 18, No. 4, Oct 1986. 403-23 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"Relationships between migration and fertility are examined, using data from the OPCS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales, including linked information from the 1971 and 1981 Censuses and birth registration data for the period 1971-80. The results showed that the proportion moving between the 1971 Census and the first subsequent birth was higher among tenants than owner occupiers, particularly for women in shared accommodation in 1971."
It is found that "differences in the proportions moving between the censuses were positively associated with fertility in the same period particularly for women in potentially crowded accommodation in 1971. Moving in 1970-71 was not associated with differences in parity progression ratios 1971-81. There were, however, differences in the timing of births, suggesting that long distance migration was associated with a postponement of the first or second child, probably because both longer distance migration and fertility behaviour are associated with other characteristics such as education."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40276 Handwerker, W. Penn. "Natural fertility" as a balance of choice and behavioral effect: policy implications for Liberian farm households. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 90-111 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes data collected during 12 months field research in Liberia in 1977-78....One research objective was to examine fertility parameters among Liberia's principal ethnic components and to compare reproductive patterns in the capital city of Monrovia (population 200,000) with Liberia's farming population."
The author finds that "four variables tended to reduce fertility: (1) a history of gonorrhea, (2) involvement in a polygynous marriage, (3) age at the initiation of sexual activities, and (4) the average length of postpartum abstinence. Five variables tended to increase fertility: (1) increasing age, (2) neonatal mortality, (3) infant mortality, (4) child mortality, and (5) the average length of lactation." It is also found that natural fertility is culturally relative and is the outcome of both intentional and unintentional effects of non-reproductive behavior.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40277 Handwerker, W. Penn. Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. xix, 389 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
This volume includes papers from a conference on culture and reproduction held December 2, 1981, at the University of California, Los Angeles, as well as additional papers. The conference represented an attempt to bring together demographic and anthropological approaches to the world population problem and to investigate cultural and historical determinants of fertility change. The papers are grouped into two sections; the first deals with micro-level issues, the second with the linkages between micro-and macro-level processes and constraints.
The essays "critique two major sets of standard demographic theory--demographic transition theory and the decision models of reproductive behavior that have come to underpin the modernization interpretation of fertility transition. [An] introductory chapter reviews contemporary demographic transition theory,...[identifies] some of the more serious deficiencies of standard theory, and explores the possibility of specifying linkages between the macro-level determinants of fertility and the micro-level processes through which fertility transition works itself out."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40278 Hernandez Castellon, Raul. Cuba: fertility trends in recent decades. [Cuba: la evolucion de la fecundidad en las ultimas decadas.] Revista Cubana de Administracion de Salud, Vol. 11, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1985. 339-54 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Trends in fertility in Cuba during the past 30 years are reviewed. The emphasis is on the impact of the 1959 political revolution on fertility and the effects on such determinants as marriage and divorce, education, and female labor force participation.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40279 Hoem, Britta. Third births among Swedish women born between 1936 and 1950. [Tredjebarnsfodslar bland svenska kvinnor fodda 1936-50.] Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 30, ISBN 91-7820-017-2. Aug 1986. 60 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Swe.
A general decline over time in the number of women having three or more children in Sweden is noted. Women who had their first birth between ages 30 and 34 were particularly unlikely to have more than two children. A reason frequently given by women for avoiding a third birth is that a third birth would cause economic pressures for the woman to work full time. A majority of women are shown to prefer staying at home or working part-time when their children are young, options that they view as being more economically feasible with fewer than three children.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40280 Holian, John. The effect of female education on marital fertility in different size communities of Mexico. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1984. 298-307 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Based on a very large sample of married women aged 15 to 49 from the 1970 census of Mexico, the effect of literacy and education on the number of children ever born in different size communities is investigated. While cumulative marital fertility tends to be inversely related to community size, the overall shape of the education-fertility relationship is generally similar in rural, semi-urban, small urban, and large urban localities. These results combined with those for literacy do not support the hypothesis of an urbanization or a literacy 'threshold' at which women's schooling begins to reduce family size."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40281 Horne, A. Dale; El-Khorazaty, M. Nabil. Trends and regional differentials in the completion of childbearing in Egypt, 1930-1980. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 105-28 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"In the present paper, variations in maternal age at last birth and length of reproductive span are examined for Egypt. First, we look at the trend in these variables for all Egypt over the half-century period from 1930 to 1980. Then, we consider regional variations, i.e., rural/urban and Lower/Upper, during the twenty-year period from 1960 to 1980." The development of models for the estimation of age at last birth and reproductive span is summarized.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40282 Horowitz, Avery M. Determinants of fertility in the United States: an analysis based on the 1980 census of population. Pub. Order No. DA8501139. 1984. 369 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
Race-specific data from the 1980 census grouped by Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA), are analyzed to examine the variables affecting fertility in the United States. "The variables explored include various measures of income, female labor market activity, education, the quality of children, tastes, degree of urbanization, infant mortality, abortion, and the costs of contraception....The paper explores the empirical results of regressions run using all 318 SMSA's for whites and 225 SMSA's for blacks. Despite differences in fertility rates, the same factors prove to be significant determinants of fertility for both races."
The author also reviews the development of modern fertility theory and discusses the issues of quantity versus quality, income effects, and the use of static models.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at City University of New York.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(11).

52:40283 Hughes, Austin L. Reproductive success and occupational class in eighteenth-century Lancashire, England. Social Biology, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1986. 109-15 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Data from parish registers on 182 couples married between 1754 and 1772 in Lancashire, England, were used to compare lifetime reproductive success of farmers and craftsmen. Farmers were expected to be of higher average status and wealth than craftsmen; thus, these data were used to test the hypothesis that status and reproductive success were positively correlated in this society. Farmers raised a significantly higher mean number of children to age 21 than did craftsmen, although mean numbers of children born to farmers and craftsmen were not significantly different. The proportion of children surviving to age 21 was significantly higher for farmers than for craftsmen."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40284 Hutaserani, Suganya. Rural labor markets and fertility in Thailand: an extension of the new household economics to integrate institutional and supply-side aspects. Pub. Order No. DA8608657. 1985. 371 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study extends the New Household Economics (NHE), which is a demand theory of fertility based on [the] neoclassical economic framework, to integrate both supply-side and institutional aspects" in the analysis of the fertility transition and the rural transformation in Thailand.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Hawaii.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 47(2).

52:40285 Jain, Anrudh K.; Nag, Moni. Importance of female primary education for fertility reduction in India. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 21, No. 36, Sep 6, 1986. 1,602-8 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The role that education can play in reducing fertility in India is explored. The authors first review the evidence on the relationship between education and fertility and challenge the conclusion that education, unless completed to a higher level than primary, is not effective in fertility reduction. They suggest that "there is convincing evidence that female education in India monotonically increases the use of contraception and age at marriage, both of which, in turn, decrease fertility."
They also argue "that as far as fertility reduction is concerned, educational policy should give high priority to expansion of female primary education, particularly by reducing the currently high repetition and drop-out rates from primary schools. They also point out that while the Five-Year Plan documents of the Central and state governments have often emphasised the urgency of making female primary education universal in all states, actual budget allocations among different education sectors have not always reflected this emphasis."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40286 Jakob, Richard. Reproductive behavior and family planning in rural regions of Honduras. [Generatives Verhalten und Familienplanung im landlichen Raum von Honduras.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 12, No. 2, 1986. 257-75 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author examines fertility and family planning in rural Honduras and discusses trends in infant and child mortality and their determinants. The absence of a government-sponsored family planning program and the initiatives of private agencies are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40287 Jayachandran, J. Determinants of fertility in two Canadian populations: a causal modelling approach. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 13, No. 1, 1986. 57-82 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A causal model is constructed to show that the demand for children [in Canada] is primarily a function of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socio-economic constraints. Three broad socio-psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first is the couple's level of modern objects scale; the second is life satisfaction and the communication between the husband and wife; and the third is attitudes or tastes of family members towards children."
Several factors, including "husband's education, wife's education and household income, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The proposed model is tested on two independent samples--one in Cold lake, the other in Fort McMurray--using a structural equation model by maximum likelihood methods."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40288 Kanjanapan, Wilawan. Age at first marital union and fertility: evidence from some Asian and Pacific countries. Journal of Population Studies, No. 9, Jun 1986. 79-104 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng. with sum. in Chi.
"This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between age at first union and fertility by cross-country comparisons, using data from the World Fertility Survey. The results show that for all countries under investigation, age at union appears to have a strong negative association with completed fertility because of its effect on duration or longer exposure to risk of childbearing. Examination of the data also reveals that age at union affects the timing of fertility." The data concern selected countries in Asia and Oceania.
The results indicate that women entering union or marriage at older ages are likely to space their children more closely together. However, they also show that "for countries with low levels of contraceptive use and low mean age at marriage, an increase in the legal age at union can be expected to have a negative impact upon childbearing."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40289 Kim, HanGon. Macro analysis of fertility trends among Korean provinces: 1966-1980. Pub. Order No. DA8609525. 1985. 210 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author investigates the determinants of fertility decline in the Republic of Korea and "tests a theoretical model based on modernization and demographic transition theory as explanations for fertility differentials across [11] Korean provinces....The methods include indirect fertility estimation, descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and time series pooling and cross-sectional analyses." Data for 1966, 1970, 1975, and 1980 are used to examine the impact of family programs, communication, transportation, and socioeconomic development on fertility.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Texas at Austin.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 47(2).

52:40290 Koeslag, J. H. On the calculation of actual fertility rates. Human Biology, Vol. 58, No. 4, Aug 1986. 615-23 pp. Detroit, Michigan. In Eng.
The concept of the Actual Fertility Rate (AFR) is introduced, and its merits are compared with those of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Net Reproductive Rate (NRR). The AFR is obtained when the total number of children born during the lifetime of the women belonging to a stated birth cohort is divided by the number of those women who reach the age of 30 years while resident in the community. "When related to cohort survivorship rates (which include the effects of migration) a variety of replacement ratios can be obtained which have the advantage over the NRR (and other traditional replacement rates) in that they assume the purpose of reproduction to be the replacement of the adults in the population, and not the neonates."
The corresponding period AFR "is calculated by dividing the total number of live births in the stated year, by the number of women who reached the mid-point of the reproductive period (taken to be age 30 years) during that year." These rates are illustrated using official Swedish data for the period 1750 to 1980.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40291 Koller-Tejeiro Vidal, Jolanda M. Women and fertility in Latin America: an investigation of the relationship between the status of women and fertility--with special consideration given to Costa Rica and Cuba. [Frau und Fruchtbarkeit in Lateinamerika: eine Untersuchung uber den Zusammenhang zwischen dem Status der Frau und Fruchtbarkeit--unter besonderer Berucksichtigung Costa Ricas und Kubas.] ISBN 3-924346-17-8. 1985. 354 pp. Rainer Hampp: Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The aim of this study, which was originally written as a dissertation, is to show the importance of the social status of women in determining fertility levels. The geographic focus is on Costa Rica and Cuba, and the study is based on a review of the literature as well as secondary analyses of statistical data.
In the initial chapters, theories of fertility are assessed, and the processes of socioeconomic development and demographic transition in Costa Rica and Cuba are reviewed. Theories concerning the status of women, development, and fertility are also discussed. The relationship between the status of women and fertility is then analyzed from the perspective of the patriarchal Latin American family, female education, female employment, and family planning.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40292 Lee, Bun Song; McElwain, Adrienne M. A comparison of alternative measures of cumulative fertility for use in the socio-economic analysis of fertility. Population Review, Vol. 30, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1986. 71-90 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The authors compare measures of cumulative fertility developed by Boulier and Rosenzweig with an alternative measure developed by Schultz using data from the 1971 Korean Fertility-Abortion Survey. "It is argued that this alternative measure, used in conjunction with age-stratified data and/or variables for age differences, also controls for age-patterns of fecundity and exposure to the risk of pregnancy and yields the same results as the B-R [Boulier-Rosenzweig] measure."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40293 Levin, Michael J.; Retherford, Robert D. Recent fertility trends in the Pacific islands. Papers of the East-West Population Institute, No. 101, ISBN 0-86638-083-3. LC 86-16739. Aug 1986. vii, 72 pp. East-West Center, Population Institute: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
Fertility estimates for 17 island groups in the South Pacific region are derived using the own-children method of fertility estimation and census data. In several cases, data from successive censuses provided a basis for checking the consistency of the estimates. "Trend estimates were also calculated for marital fertility and the Coale-Trussell m index of marital fertility control....The own-children fertility estimates are compared with estimates based on vital registration or other sources where available."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40294 Ling, Boling; Kao, Erguang. A survey of fertility in specialized households with one child in the countryside surrounding Tianjin city. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 4, Jul 29, 1985. 20-4 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The results of a 1984 survey of approximately 1,000 selected households with only one child in the rural area surrounding the city of Tianjin, China, are presented. These households were selected for inclusion in the survey because of their level of innovation regarding agricultural and marketing practices. The results show that attitudes and practice concerning fertility have changed for this innovative group. Factors affecting this reduction in fertility include the growing acceptance of the concept of sexual equality, the desire for better education for children, and awareness that prosperity is linked to control of family size. Suggestions for improving the family planning program in such areas are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40295 Lomba, Kongolo. Variations in entry into motherhood and length of effective reproductive life among women in Kenya. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 551-72 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
This study uses data from the 1977-1978 Kenya Fertility Survey "i) to assess the timing of entry into reproduction and associated factors, ii) to estimate effective reproductive life span, and iii) to examine family size variations by length of reproduction." Socioeconomic and cultural variables are considered. Mean ages of entry and exit from reproductive life are given for Kenya and seven other developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40296 Matthiessen, Poul C. Economic and social implications of the decline in fertility in Denmark. [Befolkningsudviklingen, samfundsstrukturen og den offentlige sektor.] Nationalokonomisk Tidsskrift, Vol. 123, No. 3, 1985. 281-97 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan. with sum. in Eng.
"During the last two decades Denmark has experienced a very substantial decline in fertility. At present the average number of live births per woman is only 1.4 compared with 2.6 in the middle of the sixties. The new trend of fertility has been accompanied by very substantial social changes. One of the more spectacular modifications has been the marked increase in the female labour force participation rates. At the same time, the educational level has increased considerably. These changes have reduced the desired number of births in families since they demand a new balance between the time devoted to children and the aspirations of both parents as regards education and participation in the labour force."
The economic and social implications of these demographic trends, such as the rapid acceleration of demographic aging, are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:40297 Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (New York, New York). Changing profile of births in the United States. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 67, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1986. 20-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The changing profile of births in the United States is examined using official data. A continuing increase in the age at childbearing is noted. Consideration is given to live births by age of mother and birth order for 1970, 1980, and 1983.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40298 Miller, Warren B. Proception: an important fertility behavior. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 4, Nov 1986. 579-94 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Proception is a type of instrumental behavior in which the goal is to achieve conception. Data from a three-year prospective study of more than 1,000 [white, English-speaking, U.S.] women are analyzed. Types and patterns of proceptive behavior in married women are described. Multivariate findings demonstrate the important role of proception as an intermediate between childbearing intentions and the occurrence of conception."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40299 Minkov, Minko; Kotzeva, Tatyana; Sugareva, Marta; Rizova, Galina. Family reproductive behavior in the Pernik district. [Reproduktivnoto povedenie na semeistvata ot Pernishki okrag.] Naselenie, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1986. 3-53 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Fertility trends in the Pernik district of Bulgaria are analyzed. Consideration is given to both actual and desired fertility. Factors affecting fertility include social class, social origin, education, place of residence, and number of marriages. An effort is made to identify the factors that make couples decide to have one, two, or three children. Specific recommendations concerning demographic policy are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40300 Mooka, Maitlhoko G. K. Impact of female education on fertility and infant and child mortality in Botswana. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 499-520 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"This study explores the impact of female education on the fertility of women and on the mortality of their offspring in Botswana by examining the differentials in these variables associated with different levels of female education." Tabular data calculated from the 1981 census are presented on children ever born, proportion of childless women, and multiparity by age and educational level; parity by age and marital status; parity, employment status, and urban residence by educational level; and probability of a child's dying in infancy, early childhood, middle childhood, and late childhood by mother's educational level.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40301 New Zealand. Department of Statistics (Wellington, New Zealand). Trends and patterns in New Zealand fertility, 1912-1983. Statistical Bulletin, Pub. Order No. 03010. ISBN 0-477-06453-1. May 1986. 77 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"This bulletin presents an analysis of the trends and patterns in New Zealand fertility during 1912-1983. Over this 72-year period New Zealand's population completed its long-term transition in fertility, from relatively large to small families. The transition began over a century ago, but was interrupted by a 'baby boom', which followed the end of World War 2 and was supported by a pronounced tendency towards younger, and higher rates of marriage, early childbearing, shortening of birth intervals and fewer childless marriages. Annual fertility resumed the downward trend in the early 1960s and since 1978 has been below the intrinsic replacement level."
Consideration is given to annual changes in fertility, trends in cohort fertility, trends in fertility by age, and cohort experiences of age-specific and cumulative fertility rates. Statistical tables are included in an appendix.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40302 Ni Bhrolchain, Maire. The interpretation and role of work-associated accelerated childbearing in post-war Britain. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 2, No. 2, Oct 1986. 135-54 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper examines a variety of data [for the United Kingdom] relating to work-associated differentials in birth-spacing and concludes that these may be interpreted as work-motivated. Two effects of employment on fertility are hypothesized: current work exerting a negative, decelerating influence and prospective employment a positive, accelerating influence. It is argued that the post-war rise in fertility to the mid-60s may have been brought about, in part, by the strong trend in women's labour-force participation." The data concern the United Kingdom and are from the National Survey of Health and Development (1946 Birth Cohort).
The author suggests that "the changing balance of attractiveness between current and prospective economic activity may therefore initially have had an accelerating and later a decelerating impact on birth rates."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40303 Nour, El-Sayed; Suchindran, C. M. U.S. fertility tables for birth cohorts: a note on computational procedures. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 232-4 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors examine the computational procedures used in the construction of the U.S. fertility tables published by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). "Formulas are obtained for the various cohort fertility measures (including some not given in NCHS publications such as age-specific parity progression ratios). Some of these formulas differ from those used in the published tables. The nature of the biases in these tables is discussed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40304 Pantelides, Edith A. The decline of fertility in Argentina, 1869-1947. Pub. Order No. DA8508328. 1984. xiv, 314 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This dissertation is concerned with the decline of fertility in Argentina during the period 1869-1947 as evidenced in six selected jurisdictions. The author first presents an overview of fertility in Argentina and assesses the quality of available data sources. "Chapter 4 is devoted to the analysis of overall and marital fertility trends. Chapter 5 deals with the influence of the foreign-born population on the fertility levels of the six areas."
Attention is given to the timing of the fertility decline, the impact of European immigration on fertility, and differences in the experiences of the various areas.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Texas, Austin.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40305 Rallu, Jean-Louis. French birth rates and parity progression ratios. [Descendance des generations francaises et probabilites d'agrandissement.] Population, Vol. 41, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1986. 763-802 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
An analysis of recent fertility in France is presented using data from the 1982 census, with the focus on parity progression ratios. "As a result of the decrease in marriages and the increase in illegitimate births, a study of order-specific birth rates is particularly interesting. Current trends in birth rates and parity progression ratios show that there is still a significant delay in the birth of the first child related to the fall in nuptiality and the low birth rate among couples living in consensual unions. The probability of proceeding to a second child, remains high, but that of proceeding to a third has stabilized."
The author notes that if parity progression ratios remain constant, the birth rate should rise at the end of the 1980s and during the 1990s.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40306 Robinson, Warren C. Another look at the Hutterites and natural fertility. Social Biology, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1986. 65-76 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"The present note takes off from the interesting but unexplored fact that while the Hutterite TFR [total fertility rate] of 10.9 is high relative to most other extant populations, this rate does not, in fact, represent a maximum biological potential TFR. In other words, some controls do seem to be at work even among the Hutterites. The purpose of this exercise is two-fold: (1) We estimate a modified figure for what Hutterite fertility could be under a truly unconstrained regime and present a revised age pattern of that fertility; (2) We compare this modified Hutterite age-specific fertility-rate pattern to the 'natural fertility' age-specific fertility-rate pattern and look at some broader implications." The geographic focus is on Northern America.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40307 Ross, G. Alexander. Fertility change on the Michigan frontier: Saginaw County, 1840-1850. Michigan Historical Review, Vol. 12, Fall 1986. 69-85 pp. Mount Pleasant, Michigan. In Eng.
The author examines changes in age-specific fertility in Saginaw county, Michigan, from 1840 to 1850, the period that marked the first serious efforts to shape the county into a major center of the lumber industry. The main sources of data are the 1840 and 1850 U.S. census manuscripts, which are used to construct age-specific fertility ratios using the own children technique. The record linkage of individuals in the two manuscripts facilitates the calculation of age-specific fertility ratios for the 1840 census and also permits the examination of fertility changes in light of patterns of migration during the decade.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40308 Rychtarikova, Jitka. Nuptiality and fertility of minors in the Czech Socialist Republic. [Snatecnost a plodnost nezletilych v CSR.] Demografie, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1986. 97-109 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The nuptiality and fertility patterns of those under age 18 in the Czech part of Czechoslovakia are analyzed and compared with those in other developed countries. The author notes that there have been no significant changes since 1970 despite the pro-natalist legislation adopted in the early 1970s. Most marriages at this age are due to pregnancy, with premarital conception more often resulting in marriage than in abortion.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40309 Saleh, Kamal S. Changes in the recent fertility levels and demographic components in Jordan, 1972-1983. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 307-31 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author investigates the contribution of changes in age structure, marital status, and marital fertility to the decline in fertility in Jordan between 1972 and 1983. The contribution of these three components is estimated by the U.N. standardization technique, the Kitagawa decomposition technique, and the Bongaarts intermediate variables technique. The intermediate variables considered are proportion married, contraceptive practice, and lactational infecundability.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40310 Satria, Yurni. The analysis of fertility decline in Java Bali, Indonesia (1971-1980). In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 627-51 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author applies U.N. standardization techniques and the Bongaarts aggregate fertility model to assess fertility changes between 1971 and 1980 in Java-Bali, an area encompassing six provinces of Indonesia. Data from the 1971 and 1980 censuses and from statistics published by the National Family Planning Coordinating Board are used to examine the roles of age structure, marital status, and marital fertility in the fertility changes. Particular attention is given to marital fertility control through contraception.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40311 Saw, Swee-Hock. A decade of fertility below replacement level in Singapore. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 18, No. 4, Oct 1986. 395-401 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This paper discusses fertility trends in Singapore during the decade 1975-84. Fertility first dropped below the replacement level in 1975 when the gross reproduction rate reached 1.006, and fell further to the low of 0.772 in 1984. During the same period all of the three main races, Chinese, Malays and Indians, experienced fertility below replacement level. The shortfall in the number of births required to ensure replacement fertility increased during the decade until it approached one-quarter in 1984."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40312 Schumann, Debra A. Fertility and historical variation in economic strategy among migrants to the Lacandon Forest, Mexico. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 144-58 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the relationship between fertility and variation in economic strategy among a population of Tzeltal Maya migrants to the Lacandon Forest, Chiapas, Mexico....I examine the possibility that fertility in the population I investigated is explained by a direct linkage to the perceived relative value of children. I demonstrate that there is no such linkage in this population....Fertility in this community is primarily a function of the length of time a woman has spent in her reproductive period (ages 15-49). Rather than being determined by variance in economic strategy, fertility has, in part, determined economic strategy." Data are for a sample of 67 ever-married women interviewed between 1976 and 1979.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40313 Singh, U. P.; Singh, V. K.; Singh, O. P. On a distribution of first birth interval with random components. Janasamkhya, Vol. 3, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1985. 91-5 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"In this article a probability distribution for first birth interval has been derived assuming periods of waiting times, non-susceptibility associated with foetal losses and that of physical separation of the spouses as random variables. Application of the model has been shown on a set of observed data [for Varanasi, India]."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40314 Sivamurthy, M. Structural analysis of the age specific fertility rates. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 23-36 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author uses U.N. age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) schedules to answer the following questions: "Can we utilize the observed high correlations between the ASFRs [of successive age groups] to obtain a set of parameters (e.g. factors) which could represent the ASFRs, as in the case of mortality? If yes, how many such parameters (factors) will give a reasonably adequate fit?...Principal Components Analysis has been applied to the ASFR of 71 countries for 1960 or earlier years, without any transformation of the data."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40315 Sombo, N'cho. The Ivory Coast Fertility Survey 1980-1981: evaluation report. [Enquete Ivoirienne sur la Fecondite 1980-1981: rapport d'evaluation.] WFS Scientific Reports, No. 79, Dec 1985. 63 pp. International Statistical Institute [ISI]: Voorburg, Netherlands; World Fertility Survey [WFS]: London, England. In Fre.
In this report, the author presents an evaluation of the data collected in the Ivory Coast Fertility Survey of 1980-1981. Attention is given to the quality of data concerning age, nuptiality, fertility, and infant and child mortality. Findings from the household and individual surveys are compared. In examining age reporting, the author notes the clustering of ages on numbers ending in zero and five.
With regard to nuptiality data, irregularities are noted in the reporting of marriage age among women at older ages and in the reporting of marital status. The assessment of the data on average numbers of children born by age indicates an undercount of children born to women aged 35-39 and 45 and over. Cohort and period fertility rates give evidence of underestimation among women aged 15-19 and 45 and over. While the data on mortality, being retrospective data from women aged 15-50, are biased by eligibility limits, omissions, and poor data recollection, there is substantial evidence of excess female mortality between the ages of 8 and 14 months.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40316 Stamm, Liesa; Tsui, Amy O. Cultural constraints on fertility transition in Tunisia: a case-analysis from the city of Ksar-Hellal. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 159-74 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
The authors examine the cultural context of reproduction and analyze marriage and fertility data using data collected in 1971 and 1972 concerning 87 currently and once-married women in Ksar-Hellal, Tunisia. "To observe the presence of life course effects in marriage and fertility choices and practices [they] compare data from successive marriage cohorts." It is concluded that "cultural change has brought about a decline in cohort fertility....[while] the traditional cultural value of the family has prevented the realization of a completed fertility transition."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40317 Suchindran, C. M.; Koo, Helen P.; Griffith, Janet D. Age at last birth and span of childbearing: estimates using vital statistics data. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 227-31 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In the research reported in this paper, we develop and apply techniques to obtain the distributions of ages at first and last births and the span of childbearing years based on age-specific birth and death rates known from [U.S.] vital statistics [for 1903-1942 cohorts]. We also use this method to project age at completion of childbearing for cohorts [1943-1960] which have not yet passed their reproductive period."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40318 Swidler, Steven. The old-age security motive for having children and the effect of social security on completed family size. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 1986. 15-34 pp. Champaign, Illinois. In Eng.
"If parents depend on their children for security in old age, then a social security program should decrease fertility, ceteris paribus. The main contribution of this article is the use of the choice theoretic calculus to derive a testable model that shows the effect of social security on fertility, private intergenerational giving, and saving. A second part of this article estimates a linear fertility equation suggested by the theory. The results support the conclusion that social security decreased completed family size in the United States over the period 1933-1977, but that the effect was small."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40319 Trent, Katherine. Parity distribution and socioeconomic development in Mexico: implications of the effects of subfecundity on the modernization/fertility relationship. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1984. 208-21 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"The central issue of this analysis is whether the relationship between modernization and fertility is isomorphic across different parities. Results from bivariate and multivariate analyses of the 32 states of Mexico in 1970 reveal parity differentials in the relationship between modernization and fertility. In general, at the bivariate level, significant inverse relationships are obtained between modernization indicators and parities 5 and above. However, at the lower parities both negative and positive, and mostly insignificant results are obtained. Regression analyses reveal that indeed a model based strictly on socioeconomic development is less robust at lower parities, and particularly robust for middle-range parities."
The author finds for both bivariate and multivariate analyses that "the relationship between an aggregated measure of fertility, the average number of children ever born per woman, and modernization appears to be weakened by the mixed and indeterminant behavior of lower parities in response to modernization. We suggest that these mixed and indeterminant results at the lower end of the parity continuum are due to the combined and opposite effects of modernization on subfecundity and social behavior."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40320 Trussell, James. The impact of birthspacing on fertility. International Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1986. 80-2 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The author examines the effects of birth spacing on fertility and population growth. Both cohort and period effects are considered. The impact of changes in birth spacing on population growth is discussed using the example of China.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40321 Tsuya, Noriko O. Japan's fertility: effects of contraception and induced abortion after World War II. Asian and Pacific Population Forum, Vol. 1, No. 1, Nov 1986. 7-13 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
An analysis of the fertility decline that occurred in Japan following World War II is presented. The analysis focuses on the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility as defined by Bongaarts and changes in their relative importance over time. The author concludes that the fertility decline was initially achieved by the use of abortion and contraception and that it has been subsequently maintained at a low level primarily by contraception.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40322 Tsuya, Noriko O. Proximate determinants of fertility decline in Japan after World War II. 1986. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study seeks to explain fertility transition in Japan after World War II by quantifying changes in proximate determinants of total fertility and of the reproductive process. Utilizing the component analysis of changing total fertility rate, an analytic framework by Bongaarts (1978), and a macro-simulation model also by Bongaarts (1977)," the author examines the roles of marital fertility rates, induced abortion, and contraception in fertility decline.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Chicago.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 47(2).

52:40323 Tu, Edward Jow-Ching; Li, Shaomin; Han, Jing-Qing. Fertility in China, 1950-1981, a time-series model. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 205-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors develop a time-series model of fertility change in China subject to the institutional determinants described in a 1980 paper by Geoffrey McNicoll. "We analyze the dynamics of the model and apply its empirical estimates to 1950-1981 fertility rates in China from the 1/1,000 fertility sample survey. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the model in terms of its ability to project future fertility levels."
For the article by McNicoll, published in 1980, see 47:2323.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40324 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). A study on the relationship between fertility behaviour and size, structure and functions of the family: country report of Japan. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 70; ST/ESCAP/418, 1985. iii, 43 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This is the final report from a study on the relationship between fertility and the size, structure, and functions of the family in Japan. It is one of seven country studies being conducted in Asia, which were developed on the principle that social milieu plays an important role in fertility decisions and that the crucial element in that milieu is the couple's family of obligation, defined as family members with whom the couple has reciprocal obligations. "The study, therefore, aimed to identify and determine the couple's family of obligation, the role of the family of obligation and its influence on the fertility regulating behaviour of the couple."
The report includes chapters on the development of a causal model of fertility in Japan, fertility and family control, arranged marriage and fertility, and siblings and family size.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40325 Veres, Pavel. Regional trends in fertility in Slovakia, 1910-1980. [Regionalni vyvoj plodnosti na Slovensku v letech 1910 az 1980.] Demografie, Vol. 28, No. 2, 1986. 110-7 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Regional trends in fertility in Slovakia, Czechoslovakia, are analyzed for the period 1910-1980. The focus is on differences in fertility and in the timing of the transition to lower fertility by region. It is noted that although significant fertility differences occurred over the transition period, there has been a recent trend toward similar fertility levels throughout the area.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40326 Vlassoff, Michael. Trends and differentials in fertility in Latin America: evidence from the World Fertility Survey. [Tendencias y differenciales de la fecundidad en America Latina: un analisis con los datos de la Encuesta Mundial de Fecundidad.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 14, No. 41, Aug 1986. 25-81 pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This study presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of the data gathered in the World Fertility Survey for the 13 participating countries of the Latin America and the Caribbean region. Besides examining recent and cumulative fertility, several other factors are analysed which bear upon the explanation of trends and differentials in fertility. Sections on infecundity and childlessness, infant and child mortality and preferences for the sex of offspring are included...."
A log-linear model is used to examine the socioeconomic determinants of cumulative fertility. "Three proximate determinants of fertility, age at first union, contraception use and lactational infecundity are examined and their contributions to fertility differentials assessed. Finally, the role of socio-economic factors in determining these intermediate variables is analysed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40327 Warren, Charles W.; Gwinn, Marta L.; Rubin, George L. Seasonal variation in conception and various pregnancy outcomes. Social Biology, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1986. 116-26 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"U.S. vital registration data on live births and data on abortions and ectopic pregnancies from a national hospital discharge survey were used to examine the seasonality of conceptions and the influence the conception pattern has on the monthly incidence of abortions and ectopic pregnancies. We found that in the United States, conceptions follow a consistent seasonal pattern with the peak in November and December."
With the pattern for conceptions controlled, it is found that "the monthly variation for abortions and ectopic pregnancies is not significant. Therefore, we find no monthly excess for any of these outcomes of pregnancy over that expected as a consequence of the seasonality of conception. We suggest the monthly variation for the number of each of these pregnancy outcomes will be best explained when the seasonal variation in conceptions is understood."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40328 Wasilewska-Trenkner, Halina; Stokowski, Franciszek; Nadolna-Jakobiak, Bozena; Skretowicz, Biruta. Studies on fertility and human reproduction in Poland. [Studia nad dzietnoscia i reprodukcja ludnosci w Polsce.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 177, 1985. 147 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This work consists of three separate studies on aspects of fertility in Poland. The first, by Halina Wasilewska-Trenkner, presents selected results from a survey on marital fertility undertaken in 1972. The second, by Franciszek Stokowski and Bozena Nadolna-Jakobiak presents a cohort analysis on the relationship between fertility and education using data from the same source. The third, by Biruta Skretowicz, examines factors affecting rural fertility using data from a nationally representative sample of married women of reproductive age collected in 1978. It includes consideration of contraceptive usage.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40329 Weil, Peter. Agricultural intensification and fertility in the Gambia (West Africa). In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 294-320 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines interrelationships among the agrarian production system, fertility rates, and proximate determinants of fertility among the Mandinka of The Gambia to determine why, despite wide-ranging social and economic change over the last 25 years, fertility has remained high and may even have increased." The author uses data from three studies conducted separately by the British Medical Research Council, the author, and Margaret Haswell. He concludes that "high and increasing fertility among rural Mandinka is explained by intentional decreases in post-partum infecundability."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40330 Werner, Barry. Trends in first, second, third and later births. Population Trends, No. 45, Autumn 1986. 26-33 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The rapid increase in the proportion of births in England and Wales which are illegitimate, from 9 per cent in 1975 to 19 per cent in 1985, has meant that information obtained from birth registrations about the birth order (that is, first, second, third births etc) of children within marriage has become increasingly misleading as a guide to the overall or true birth order of children regardless of legitimacy. In this article an account is given of a method in which information from the General Household Surveys of 1979 to 1982 was used to derive estimates of true birth order for an historical series of statistics, compiled from birth registrations for the period 1938-85, which identify legitimacy and legitimate birth order only."
An assessment of the coverage of illegitimate births included in the General Household Survey is presented, and "the derived true birth order statistics are compared with sample data from the Hospital In-patient Enquiry. Examples of applications of the estimated true birth order statistics are given for period and cohort analyses of fertility."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40331 Westoff, Charles F. Fertility in the United States. Science, Vol. 234, No. 4776, Oct 31, 1986. 554-9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Aspects of fertility in the United States, including past trends, the current situation, and the probable future course, are discussed, with particular attention given to fertility regulation, teenage fertility, and differential fertility. The decline of the total U.S. fertility rate in the postwar period from its 1957 peak to the present below-replacement level is outlined, and explanations of the baby boom are summarized.
It is noted that "the low fertility in the United States has been accomplished by a postponement of marriage and by the widespread use of contraception, with heavy reliance on surgical sterilization as a contraceptive method. Judging from the experience of other Western countries and from our own historical experience of two centuries of fertility decline interrupted only by the baby boom, as well as from the absence of social trends that would counteract those contributing to that decline, the prognosis is for a continued low level of fertility in the United States."
Location: Princeton University Library (SQ).

52:40332 Whiteford, Linda M. Economic diversity, family strategy, and fertility in a Mexican-American community. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 237-48 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the determinants of fertility and fertility differentials among Mexican American women in a community in south Texas." The relationship between economic change and fertility is analyzed. Fertility trends among families working in agriculture and those working outside agriculture are compared. Data were collected between 1976 and 1981 in a rural Texas-Mexico border region.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40333 Williamson, Jeffrey G. Did rising emigration cause fertility to decline in 19th century rural England? Child costs, old-age pensions and child default. Harvard Institute of Economic Research Discussion Paper, No. 1172, Aug 1985. 46 pp. Harvard University, Harvard Institute of Economic Research: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper accepts the proposition that fertility is driven by economic forces across the demographic transition. Parents are assumed to make fertility choices conditional on the net rearing costs of children up to marriage age, as well as on the pension value of children in old age. Since the event to be explained is the rural fertility decline in England after the 1870s, we look for sources of that decline in economic events two generations or so earlier." Particular attention is given to child default rates, or the rates at which children emigrated thereby defaulting on their parents' investments, before 1816, in the 1840s, and in the 1860s.
"Section II surveys some views of rural fertility in which rising child default rates might play a significant quantitative role. Section III documents British historical experience with rural emigration up to the 1870s and uses that evidence to infer trends in the default rate. Section IV constructs estimates of the economic value of rural children. With those estimates in hand, Section V explores the impact of changes in the default rate on rural children's asset value."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40334 Yamada, Tadashi. Causality and innovations between fertility and infant mortality. Population Review, Vol. 30, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1986. 31-52 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The relationship between the fertility rate and the infant mortality rate is examined using time series methodology. The data concern the United States, the Netherlands, Japan, and Israel. The results show that a decline in fertility will reduce infant mortality below its normal level.
"It is also shown that fertility and infant mortality are not mutually independent but jointly determined. Therefore, when one constructs a model of the relationship between fertility and infant mortality, it is suggested that one should estimate a fertility equation in which infant mortality rate is an endogenous variable in a simultaneous equations system and vice versa."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40335 Yamada, Tadashi; Yamada, Tetsuji. Fertility and labor force participation of married women: empirical evidence from the 1980 population census of Japan. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 1986. 35-46 pp. Champaign, Illinois. In Eng.
"The authors hypothesize that there exists a simultaneous relationship between fertility and the labor force participation of married women who spend most of their time in the labor market. The major finding of this study, which uses grouped data drawn primarily from the 1980 Population Census of Japan, is that fertility is found to be a significantly negative determinant of the labor force participation of married women in urban Japan--and vice versa."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40336 You, Shuang-Lin. Some aspects of fertility transition in China, 1950-79. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 611-26 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author identifies three major phases of the fertility transition in China during the period 1950-1979 and investigates the measurement and analysis of fertility control for each phase. Data are from the 1982 national 1-in-1,000 fertility survey.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40337 Yusof, Khairuddin; Zulkifli, Siti N. Demographic and fertility characteristics of 4 squatter settlements. Malaysian Journal of Reproductive Health, Vol. 3, No. 1, Jun 1985. 31-45 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng.
The authors discuss fertility trends in four squatter settlements in the Federal Territory in Malaysia, two of which have been part of the Sang Kancil community development project. This project, established in 1978, provides "maternal and child health care, pre-school education and income-generating activities....Analyses of data collected from a census 1982 showed specific distinctions between the Sang Kancil community and the control which placed the Sang Kancil areas and controls into high and low fertility areas, respectively and also mobile and stable populations, respectively."
Findings concerning socioeconomic background and migration in the squatter areas are also compared. "Assessment of contraceptive use showed that the Sang Kancil clinic had promoted overall acceptor rates to a small extent and gained patronage amongst present users. In addition, the practice of abortion as a means of birth-control was identified."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40338 Zhekova, Vetka; Bogdanov, Zdravko. Research into natality in the Burgas district. [Izsledvane na razhdaemostta v Burgaski okrag.] Naselenie, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1986. 54-66 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The results of a study of fertility trends in the Burgas district of Bulgaria are presented. The study was designed to examine reasons for the recent decline in fertility. The authors conclude that an increase in fertility can only be achieved by social changes that would encourage people to have more children.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

52:40339 Bourke, Joanna. Piety or poverty. Catholic fertility in Australia and New Zealand: 1911, 1926, 1936. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 12, No. 1, Feb 1986. 18-31 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
The author examines religious differences in fertility in Australia and New Zealand using census data for the years 1911, 1926, and 1936. The analysis and results are compared with those presented by Lincoln H. Day in a 1983 study.
It is found that "at least before 1936, the willingness to identify oneself in the census as a Catholic did not have a vital influence on fertility behaviour. In the case of Australia, Lutheranism affected fertility to a much greater extent than Catholicism. While the various religious groups maintained distinctive fertility levels, these apparently had a considerable basis in the different rural-urban distribution and social compositions of the populations."
For the book by Day, published in 1983, see 50:20315.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40340 Burt, Martha R. Estimating the public costs of teenage childbearing. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1986. 221-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A formula for making national, state and local estimates of the cost to the public of teenage childbearing is derived from a review of 12 studies. The formula is then applied to U.S. data. The calculations yield a single-year cost for 1985 of 16.65 billion [dollars] paid through three programs--Aid to Families with Dependent Children, food stamps and Medicaid--for women who first gave birth as teenagers."
It is estimated that "the public will pay an average of 13,902 [dollars] over the next 20 years for the family begun by each first birth to a teenager in 1985 and 5.16 billion [dollars] over the same period for the families of all teenagers experiencing a first birth in 1985. If all teenage births were delayed until the mother was 20 or older, the potential savings to the public would be 5,560 [dollars] for each birth delayed and 2.06 billion [dollars] for the entire cohort of teenagers who would otherwise have had a first birth in 1985."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40341 Coward, John. The analysis of regional fertility patterns. In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 45-67 pp. George Allen and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter some general issues in the explanation of spatial demographic patterns are considered and, by way of example, variations in fertility with reference to Trinidad and Tobago, and England and Wales are investigated." Among the themes discussed in this chapter are "the magnitude of spatial variations, a model of demographic divergence and convergence, the identification of regional patterns and their evolution over time and the explanation of spatial patterns. An attempt has been made to demonstrate that the spatial perspective can offer additional insights into the description, analysis and explanation of variations in fertility and mortality...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40342 Dorjahn, Vernon R. Temne fertility: rural continuity, urban change, rural-urban differences, and public policy problems. In: Culture and reproduction: an anthropological critique of demographic transition theory, edited by W. Penn Handwerker. ISBN 0-8133-7199-6. LC 86-5671. 1986. 321-349 pp. Westview Press: Boulder, Colorado/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes rural fertility change, urban fertility change, and rural-urban fertility differences among the Temne of Sierra Leone over the period 1963 to 1976, and interprets the results in light of problems faced by formulators of public policy for such high fertility populations....The rural data are derived from 100% enumerations of what was formerly the chiefdom of Kolifa Mayoso. The urban data are derived from a one in five block sample of the provincial town of Magburaka...." Methodological problems are discussed. The author considers the effects of Bongaarts' intermediate variables and the influence of cultural factors on these variables.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40343 Ehrlich, Lisa M. Women's career orientation, labor supply and fertility behavior. Pub. Order No. DA8422899. 1984. 204 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The central issue in this thesis is whether 'career oriented' women respond differently from 'traditional' women in their childbearing and labor supply behavior to changes in exogenous variables such as wages and husband's income....This is an empirical dissertation with a two-stage model, using the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women."
The author finds "surprisingly little difference in fertility response among different types of women. The labor supply response of career women is found to be more elastic with respect to wage rates than that of traditional women. These findings suggest that standard economic models of fertility, so long as they incorporate socioeconomic status and race variables, are broadly applicable and not merely appropriate for modeling the behavior of traditional women."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(7).

52:40344 Friede, Andrew; Hogue, Carol J. R.; Doyle, Lee L.; Hammerslough, Charles R.; Sniezek, Joseph E.; Arrighi, Henry. Do the sisters of childbearing teenagers have increased rates of childbearing? American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 76, No. 10, Oct 1986. 1,221-4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
In view of the high level of adolescent fertility in the United States, the authors focus on the need to identify teenagers at elevated risk for childbearing if programs to reduce adolescent fertility are to be developed effectively. The authors develop the hypothesis that sisters of childbearing adolescents may represent such a high-risk group. Data for 3,767 teenagers enrolled in the Arkansas Aid to Families with Dependent Children program between 1978 and 1981 are analyzed. The results suggest that the sisters of pregnant teenagers did have elevated rates of childbearing and might therefore represent an important target population for family planning programs.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:40345 Godoy, Ricardo A. Human fertility and land tenure in highland Bolivia. Social Biology, Vol. 31, No. 3-4, Fall-Winter 1984. 290-7 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Basic demographic data of landless and landed peasants from the highlands and valley of Northern Potosi, Bolivia, are compared. Household size and crude birth rates are larger in the highlands than in the valley. Within the highland population, no statistically significant difference was observed between the age-specific fertility of landless and landed women, nor in the survivorship ratio of their offspring. The prevalence of exchange and reciprocity at the village level may be responsible for the absence of important differences in the fertility and mortality patterns of the landed and landless."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40346 Golata, Elzbieta. Regional variations in women's fertility in Poland in 1975. [Terytorialne zroznicowanie plodnosci kobiet w Polsce w 1975 r.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 1/83, 1986. 99-118 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
A correlation regression analysis of differential fertility by geographic area in Poland is presented using 1975 data for the 49 voivodships. Rural and urban populations are analyzed separately. The effect on fertility of such factors as residence, occupation, age, marital status, and educational status are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40347 Jensen, An-Magritt. Do employed women have a different fertility pattern from not-employed women? An illustration of hazard rate methodology. [Har yrkesaktive kvinner et annet fodemonster enn yrkespassive? En illustrasjon av forlopsanalyse.] Tidsskrift for Samfunnsforskning, Vol. 27, No. 4, 1986. 334-56 pp. Oslo, Norway. In Nor. with sum. in Eng.
The relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in Norway is analyzed. The data are from the Women and Work Survey, carried out by the Central Bureau of Statistics in 1980, and concern women born between 1940 and 1959. The focus is on how employment following a birth affects the prospects of having a second child. Other factors considered include marital status, mother's age at first birth, and educational status.
Hazard rate methodology is used. The results show that fertility has declined over time regardless of other factors. Although women generally have a second child regardless of their employment experience, those who are continually employed following a first birth have a reduced level of fertility.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:40348 Kane, Thomas T. The fertility and assimilation of guestworker populations in the Federal Republic of Germany: 1961-1981. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1986. 99-131 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
The author seeks "to examine the fertility trends, levels, and differentials of five guestworker populations residing in the Federal Republic of Germany and to explore the effects of migrant selectivity and assimilation on migrant fertility behavior. Using vital statistics on births by nationality and age of mother, special tabulations of the annual German microcensus, and data from the decennial censuses and German population register, current and cumulative fertility of five foreign migrant groups (Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Turks, and Yugoslavs) are estimated for the 1961-1981 period and compared to native German fertility and fertility in the home countries."
It is found that Turkish migrants are apparently the least assimilated of the migrant groups and that their fertility is inversely related to their knowledge of the German language. "The results of this analysis indicate that the fertility of most migrant groups is rapidly converging toward the German level, although Turkish migrant total fertility was still two and a half times higher than native German fertility in 1981...." It appears that by 1980, the marital fertility rates of Greek, Spanish, and Yugoslav women living in Germany had achieved convergence with native German marital fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40349 Kane, Thomas T. The fertility of guestworker populations in the Federal Republic of Germany. Pub. Order No. DA8425694. 1984. 226 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study...[examines] the fertility trends, levels, and differentials of five guestworker populations residing in the Federal Republic of Germany. The effects of migrant selectivity and assimilation on migrant fertility behavior are explored. Using vital statistics data on births by nationality and age of mother, special tabulations of the annual German microcensus, and data from the decennial censuses and German population register, current and cumulative fertility of five foreign migrant groups (Greeks, Italians, Spanish, Turks, and Yugoslavs) is estimated for the 1961-1981 period and compared to native-German fertility and fertility in the home countries."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Princeton University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(8).

52:40350 Lam, David. The dynamics of population growth, differential fertility, and inequality. American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 5, Dec 1986. 1,103-16 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes the effects of income differentials in fertility on Lorenz curves and standard inequality measures. The role of intergenerational mobility is examined and incorporated into counterfactual simulations based on Brazilian data. Two standard inequality measures move in opposite directions in both the steady state and the transition in response to the elimination of fertility differentials. The counterfactuals confirm the theoretical predictions of misleading intertemporal inequality comparisons in the presence of differential fertility."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40351 Lamur, Humphrey E. A preliminary note on fertility differentials by social class in Suriname. Biology and Society, Vol. 3, No. 3, Sep 1986. 125-9 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines the fertility differentials by social class in Suriname in the 1960s and 1970s, and analyses the sudden stagnation in the decline in fertility that took place between 1962 and 1974." Data are taken from household registers. The results indicate that the primary reason for the slowing in the fertility decline since 1974 is that middle class parents are currently realizing their ideal family size.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40352 Laurenson, I. F.; Benton, M. A.; Bishop, A. J.; Mascie-Taylor, C. G. N. Fertility at low and high altitude in central Nepal. Social Biology, Vol. 32, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1985. 65-70 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"Data are reported on ages of menarche, first marriage and first childbirth, migration, venereal disease, birth control, birth spacing and on completed fertility rate in populations of Central Nepal living at low (8,500 feet) and high altitude (12,400 feet). The high-altitude population reported a significantly lower completed fertility rate which could be partly accounted for by later age at marriage and at first childbirth and increased birth spacing. Longer post-partum amenorrhea and breast feeding did not account for the increased average pregnancy gap."

52:40353 Mahdavi, Saeid. Population and socio-economic development: an empirical analysis of cross-national differentials in fertility, female labor-force participation, and size distribution of income. Pub. Order No. DA8605941. 1985. 305 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study conducts an empirical analysis of cross-national differentials in aggregate fertility rates (GFR) while focusing on interrelations between GFR and two important facets of socio-economic transformation, i.e., the extent of female participation in the labor force (FLPR) and the pattern of the distribution of income (YDIST)." Data from 53 countries are analyzed using an empirical model.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Columbia University Teachers College.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 47(3).

52:40354 Mahmood, Naushin; Khan, Zubeda. Literacy transition and female nuptiality: implications for fertility in Pakistan. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 24, No. 3-4, Autumn-Winter 1985. 589-603 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"This paper is an attempt to examine trends and differentials in education and age at marriage of males and females [in Pakistan] and then relate the two variables to one important aspect of demographic behaviour, namely fertility, and evaluate the implication of these relationships on reduction of fertility in Pakistan." The data are from the 1981 census and the 1979-1980 Population, Labour Force and Migration (PLM) Survey.
"Given the limitations of the survey data which pertain to a sample of ever-married women between the ages of 15 and 49 years, the main conclusions of the study are that a rise in female age at marriage and education at secondary and higher levels are important in affecting fertility levels." Policy implications of the findings are discussed. Comments by Akhtar Hasan Khan are included (pp. 601-3).
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40355 Mhloyi, Marvellous M. Fertility determinants: a comparative study of Kenya and Lesotho. Pub. Order No. DA8417335. 1984. 342 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose of the study is to assess the determinants of fertility and fertility control in Kenya and Lesotho, and of the fertility differences between the two countries, using WFS data. The empirical analysis focuses on continuously once married women aged 35-44 years, who have had at least two children....Parity progression ratios, age-specific marital fertility rates and the index value of fertility control, m, are used. All these measures indicate that both countries are natural fertility populations in a parity-specific sense."
In subsequent chapters, the author examines the proximate determinants of fertility and the determinants of fertility regulation. In the final chapter, "the proximate determinants, and the determinants of use are linked to modernization and cultural variables....Modernization variables explain household fertility better than cultural variables. The determinants of fertility control are more sensitive to modernization variables than the proximate determinants."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Pennsylvania.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(5).

52:40356 Mostert, W. P.; Erasmus, Gerda. Area differences in fertility and contraception among Indian, Coloured, and black South Africans. [Streeksverskille in fertiliteit en kontrasepsie onder Indier-, Kleurling- en Swart Suid-Afrikaners.] RGN.HSRC Navorsingsbevinding, No. SN-253, ISBN 0-7969-0334-4. 1986. ix, 30 pp. Human Sciences Research Council, Institute for Sociological and Demographic Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Afr. with sum. in Eng.
A summary of three fertility surveys conducted in 1981-1982 concerning Indian, Coloured, and black South Africans is presented. The surveys show significant differences in fertility and levels of contraceptive practice not only by race but also by region. Factors affecting these differences include design of health region and macroeconomic factors such as levels of socioeconomic development, modernization, social environment, and political environment. However, levels of black South African contraceptive usage are higher than in other African countries, and desired family size is lower. The critical role of the National Family Planning Programme is stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40357 Mousa, Mohamed. Entry and exit from reproduction: some socio-economic correlates in Sudan. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 359-78 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author investigates fertility differentials among Sudanese women by selected socioeconomic characteristics, variations in first birth intervals, and components of fertility variations, including first birth interval and completed family size differentials. Data are from the Sudan Fertility Survey of 1978-1979, which covered the non-nomadic population of northern Sudan.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40358 Ngondo a Pitshandenge, I. Concerning the nuptiality and fertility of those practicing polygamy: the case of the Yaka of Popokabaka (Zaire). [De la nuptialite et fecondite des polygames: le cas des Yaka de Popokabaka (Zaire).] Annalen, Reeks in-8, Menselijke Wetenschappen/Annales, Serie in-8, Sciences Humaines, No. 109, Pub. Order No. D/1982/0254/07. 1982. [viii], 340 pp. Musee Royal de l'Afrique Centrale: Tervueren, Belgium. In Fre.
The relationship between polygamy and fertility is examined using data from published sources, demographic surveys undertaken in Zaire in 1955-1957 and 1975-1976, and data collected by the author in 1977 concerning the Yaka of the Popokabaka region. The emphasis is on fertility differentials and their causes between women in monogamous and polygamous unions. A review of the published literature is first presented, and the data sources used for this study are reviewed. The author then describes marriage patterns among the Yaka, including the frequency of polygamy and age at marriage.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40359 Singh, Susheela. Adolescent pregnancy in the United States: an interstate analysis. Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 5, Sep-Oct 19