52:40090 Houdaille,
Jacques. The population of America before Christopher
Columbus. [La population de l'Amerique avant Christophe Colomb.]
Population, Vol. 41, No. 3, May-Jun 1986. 586-90 pp. Paris, France. In
Fre.
Some problems concerning the estimation of the population of
the Americas before the Spanish conquest are reviewed. The emphasis is
on work conducted at the University of California, Berkeley, since the
1940s.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40091 Smolinski,
Zbigniew. Population reproduction during Poland's
millennium. [Reprodukcja ludnosci Polski w okresie tysiaclecia.]
Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 31, No. 2, Feb 1986. 6-10 pp. Warsaw,
Poland. In Pol.
An attempt is made to summarize birth and death
rates as well as population growth, life expectancy, gross reproduction
rates, and theoretical birth rates for Poland during its 1,000-year
history. The author concentrates on estimates for the period from the
year 1000 to 1900, since the rates and coefficients for the twentieth
century are much better documented and are well
known.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40092 Asian
Research Service (Hong Kong). Current data report on
China's human resources. LC 86-113074. 1985. vi, 128 pp. Hong
Kong. In Eng.
This report is designed to complement a map entitled
"China's Human Resources" and contains explanatory notes, maps, and
diagrams. The map and report are based on data from the Chinese census
of 1982. The report presents the statistical data on which the map is
based, provides background information on the population situation, and
highlights the main findings of the census.
Chapters are included
on spatial distribution, population density, urban population, regional
population growth, nationalities, household size and sex ratio,
population by area, educational level and employment, age structure,
vital rates, marital status, population projections, comparisons of
national censuses, and population policy.
This report is available
from Asian Research Service, G.P.O. Box 2232, Hong
Kong.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40093 Carrilho,
Maria J. The resident population of Portugal: intercensal
estimates, 1971-1980. [Populacao residente em Portugal:
estimativas intercensitarias, 1971-1980.] INE Folhas de Divulgacao, Jun
1986. 29 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Centro de Estudos
Demograficos: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Intercensal estimates of
the resident population of Portugal for the period 1971-1980 are
presented. Methodological aspects are first reviewed. Tabular data
are then provided by sex and district, estimated on June 30 and
December 31 for each year of the period studied. Three separate growth
patterns are identified. Also included are a discussion of illegal
migration as well as tabulated data on fertility, mortality, population
growth, migration, and the sex ratio.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:40094 Chile.
Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile).
Population estimates as of June 30 and December 31, 1984, by
region, province, community, and city. [Poblacion estimada al 30
de junio y 31 de diciembre de 1984, segun regiones, provincias, comunas
y ciudades.] Mar 1984. 19 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Official
population estimates for 1984 are presented for
Chile.
Location: New York Public Library.
52:40095 Denmark.
Ministeriet for Gronland (Copenhagen, Denmark). The
population of Greenland, January 1, 1986. [Gronlands befolkning,
1. Januar 1986.] [1986]. 88 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan; Esk.
Population estimates for Greenland are presented for 1986 using
data from the population registers developed by the Danish statistical
authorities. The data concern population by age and sex for towns,
counties, communities, and settlements.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:40096 Felton,
Gilbert R. Evaluation of population estimation procedures
for counties: 1980. Current Population Reports, Series P-25:
Population Estimates and Projections, No. 984, Sep 1986. v, 65 pp. U.S.
Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This is the last in
a series of reports presenting the results of the evaluation of
population estimation procedures used by the [U.S.] Bureau of the
Census during the 1970 decade....[It] covers a summary of earlier
county population evaluations, a discussion of problems with the 1980
estimates evaluation, and suggests changes that should be made for the
1980 decade. Consideration has been given to the problem of relating
the estimates (based on the 1970 census) to a 1980 census count that
appears to have inconsistencies with the 1970 census results.
Evaluations have been made both with and without adjustments to
compensate for the differential coverage of the two
censuses."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40097 Griffin,
Kenneth M. Four methods of estimating small populations:
a comparison. Pub. Order No. DA8429665. 1984. 81 pp. University
Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose
of this study is to examine the efficiency of population estimators
when applied to small populations. Efficiencies of a two-stage simple
unbiased estimate, ratio, difference, and regression estimates were
compared based on ten samples of different sizes drawn from...[an urban
U.S. population in 1973 and 1976]. Results of the samples were also
compared to the known population parameters."
The author finds "the
regression method to be superior to the other methods examined in this
study based on relative efficiency. That is, the regression method
produced a smaller variance for a given sample size....Where data are
available in the appropriate form, the regression method should be
considered as an alternative to other population estimating
methods."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at
Louisiana Tech University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts
International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(10).
52:40098 Land,
Kenneth C.; Hough, George C. Improving the accuracy of
intercensal estimates and postcensal projections of the civilian
noninstitutional population: a parameterization of institutional
prevalence rates. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical
Association, Vol. 81, No. 393, Mar 1986. 62-74 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
The authors first note that current official U.S. population
estimates and projections are based on the assumption that certain
characteristics of the institutionalized population remain constant
between censuses. The article "examines the empirical validity of this
assumption by using data from the decennial censuses for 1940-1980 and,
in light of substantial decade to decade changes in the age patterns of
the institutional proportions for sex- and race-specific populations,
seeks to develop alternative methods."
As part of these alternative
methods, "parametric curves are fit to the age-specific institutional
proportions for each population for each decade. A study of the
observed historical variation in the parameters of these curves then
leads to some suggestions about how their shapes can be estimated
between censuses and projected beyond the latest available census to
provide more accurate estimates and projections of the civilian
noninstitutional population."
This is a revised version of a paper
originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall
1984, p. 439).
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
52:40099 Peru.
Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. Direccion General de Demografia
(Lima, Peru). Peru: estimates and projections of the
population by calendar years and single years of age for the period
1970-2000. [Peru: estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion por
anos calendarios y edades simples del periodo 1970-2000.] Boletin
Especial, No. 7, Dec 1984. 54 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population
estimates and projections are presented for Peru for the period
1970-2000. They are organized by sex and single years of age as well
as by five-year age group. Separate data concerning fertility are
provided in an appendix.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40100 Rees,
Philip; Woods, Robert. Demographic estimation: problems,
methods and examples. In: Population structures and models:
developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip
Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 301-43 pp. George Allen
and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
"In this
chapter we have attempted to outline some of the issues the demographic
researcher has to confront when investigating populations that vary
over space, as well as some of the techniques that may be employed in
estimating the data needed for such investigations." Elements
considered include "(a) the concepts used in defining the population
stocks and flows; (b) the age-time frameworks adopted; (c) the spatial
frameworks used; and (d) the temporal and accounting frameworks
employed."
These concepts are applied to two examples. "The [first]
example involves the estimation of external migration flows for 20
United Kingdom regions [for the period 1976-1981]....The second example
concerns regional demographic variation and change in a developing
country, India."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:40101 Smith,
Stanley K. A review and evaluation of the housing unit
method of population estimation. JASA: Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 394, Jun 1986. 287-96 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The housing unit (HU) method is used by
public and private agencies throughout the United States to make local
population estimates. This article describes many of the different
types of data and techniques that can be used in applying the HU
method, and it discusses the strengths and weaknesses of each.
Empirical evidence from four different states is provided, comparing
the accuracy of HU population estimates with the accuracy of other
commonly used estimation techniques. Several conclusions are drawn
regarding the usefulness of the HU method for local population
estimation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
52:40102 Stern,
Mikael. Census from heaven? Population estimates with
remote sensing techniques. Meddelanden fran Lunds Universitets
Geografiska Institution Avhandlingar, No. 99, ISBN 91-7222-989-6. 1985.
128 pp. University of Lund, Department of Geography: Lund, Sweden. In
Eng.
The value of using modern remote sensing techniques to gather
population data is explored using the example of the Kordofan province
in the Sudan. "The basic idea was founded on the assumptions that
people live in villages and that the sizes of the villages are
correlated to the number of inhabitants. Thus, the investigation
demanded data on population and settlement sizes. The former were
collected through field work in Kordofan, whereas the latter were
obtained from Landsat MSS data."
The emphasis of the study is on
the value of automatic as opposed to manual analysis of the images
obtained by remote sensing. The superiority of manual techniques is
stressed. Consideration is also given to the correlation between
settlement size and population.
This study was prepared as a
doctoral dissertation at Lund University.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40103 United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago,
Chile). The school-age population by sex and single year
of age, by country, 1950-2000. [Poblacion en edad escolar segun
sexo y edades simples, por paises, 1950-2000.] Boletin
Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 19, No. 38, Jul 1986. 146 pp.
Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
This issue "presents information on
school age population (between 5 and 24 years) by sex and single ages
for the period 1950-2000, for the 20 countries that form the territory
that is called Latin America...." Data are primarily from official
national sources. A table presenting estimates of the total population
by country for the period 1950-2025 for years ending in zero and five
is also included.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:40104 United
Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New
York, New York). World population prospects: estimates
and projections as assessed in 1984. Population Studies, No. 98;
ST/ESA/SER.A/98, Pub. Order No. E.86.XIII.3. ISBN 92-1-151159-3. 1986.
x, 330 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Global estimates and
projections of population, based on the 10th round of the global
demographic assessments undertaken by the United Nations, are
presented. The estimates are primarily derived from official national
data that have been evaluated and adjusted as necessary. Chapters are
included that describe the methods, data, and assumptions used and
provide a summary of the major findings. The data are presented first
by major subject, including medium, high, and low variants of total
population and annual rate of change by region, country, or area; crude
birth and death rates; fertility rates; life expectancy rate; and
infant mortality rate. The data are then organized by major area and
region and by country.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40105 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates
of the population of the United States, by age, sex, and race: 1980 to
1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population
Estimates and Projections, No. 985, Apr 1986. iii, 56 pp. Washington,
D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population of
the United States by single years of age, sex, and race for each year
from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1985; comparable census figures are also
shown for April 1, 1980. Estimates are shown for the total population
including Armed Forces overseas, the resident population, and the
civilian population."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40106 United
States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.).
Provisional estimates of the population of counties: July 1,
1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population
Estimates, No. 85-52-C, Aug 1986. 19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents provisional estimates of the total population
as of July 1, 1985, for 3,138 counties and county equivalents in the
United States (including census areas in Alaska, parishes in Louisiana,
the District of Columbia, and independent cities in Maryland, Missouri,
Nevada, and Virginia)."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40107 Verhoef,
R.; Tas, R. F. J. Demography of the Netherlands,
1985. [Demografie van Nederland 1985.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 7, Jul 1986. 22-44 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A review of the population situation in
the Netherlands in 1985 is presented based on official data. It is
noted that the Netherlands is the most densely populated Western
country and that the total population will continue to increase until
the year 2004. Topics covered include trends in the foreign population,
fertility, natural increase, international migration, nuptiality, and
demographic aging.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:40108 Abumere, S.
I. The future population of the Federal Capital Territory,
Abuja. Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, Vol. 26,
No. 3, Nov 1984. 287-313 pp. Ibadan, Nigeria. In Eng.
The author
projects population to the years 1990 and 2000 for the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT) of Nigeria and for the region of Abuja. The
methodology used is outlined and seven different projections are
presented, with figures provided separately for regions within the FCT.
The scenarios considered include one assuming a growth rate similar to
the past growth rate of Lagos and one based on growth rates seen in
Brasilia, Brazil. Attention is given to the relative contributions of
natural increase and in-migration.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
52:40109 Alho, Juha
M. Interval estimates for future population. In:
American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social
Statistics Section. [1985]. 44-51 pp. American Statistical Association:
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This paper presents an approach to
describing the accuracy of forecasts of total population size that
"allows for a larger subjective input and applies to populations
disaggregated by age and sex. The same methods can be used to analyse
forecasts of subgroups of a population." Age-specific fertility rates
in the United States, 1957-1979, and their mixed predictions for
1980-1994 are presented, and interval estimates of the 1995 U.S. female
population are calculated.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40110 Attia,
Shadia S. M. Projection of the urban/rural population of
Egypt 1980-2000. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC
annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986.
213-40 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The
author uses the urban-rural growth rate difference and cohort-survival
methods to project the total urban and rural population, the urban and
rural age and sex composition, and the components and corresponding
rates of growth of Egypt by five-year intervals for the period
1980-2000. Data are from the 1960 and 1976 censuses, U.N. and other
projections, and the Coale-Demeny South model life
tables.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40111 Calot,
Gerard. French demographic perspectives. Futures,
Vol. 18, No. 2, Apr 1986. 242-57 pp. Guildford, England. In Eng.
This article, translated from the original French, describes how
official population projections are made in France and outlines
probable developments up to the year 2050. It is stated that mortality
rates are unlikely to change significantly and that assumptions
concerning fertility are critical to future population projections.
Attention is also paid to the impact of demographic aging. The author
"presents a comprehensive view of possible futures for the French
population and, by way of comparison, the demographic evolutionary
paths of other European countries."
For the original French-language
article, published in 1983, see 50:10129.
Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
52:40112 Canada.
Quebec (Province). Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec (Quebec,
Canada). The demographic future of Quebec. [L'avenir
demographique du Quebec.] ISBN 2-551-08976-X. 1985. 219 pp. Quebec,
Canada. In Fre.
An analysis of the most recent population
projections for the province of Quebec is presented. These projections
are based on data from the 1981 census of Canada. The study includes a
review of recent population trends in the province since 1951.
Chapters are included on regional differences, trends in age and sex
distribution, the development of certain subpopulations, spatial
distribution by region, households, and long-term
trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40113 Chaudhry,
Mahinder. Population policy target of net reproduction
rate of unity by 2000: how realistic? Economic and Political
Weekly, Vol. 21, No. 48, Nov 29, 1986. 2,100-5 pp. Bombay, India. In
Eng.
The author examines the likelihood that a net reproduction
rate (NRR) of one can be achieved in India by the year 2000. Noting
the tendency to exaggerate the rate of fertility decline in previous
official population projections, the author critically reviews the
latest of these projections, which was published in March 1984. A
review of other population projections concerning India made by the
World Bank, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the United Nations, and R.
H. Cassen is also presented.
The author concludes that "the elusive
goal of NRR = 1 will be achieved in India during the latter part of the
first decade of the next century when the total national population
will have crossed the billion mark. This conclusion seems contrary to
many repeated assertions that 'India can anticipate a net reproductive
rate of unity by the end of this century'...."
Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
52:40114 Dinh, Quang
Chi; Labat, Jean-Claude. The aging of the French
population is inevitable. [Le vieillissement de la population
francaise est ineluctable.] Economie et Statistique, No. 190, Jul-Aug
1986. 5-15, 87, 89 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Probable population trends in France up to the year 2000 are
explored. "Between now and the year 2000, the French population will
grow by three or four million. There will be 12 million persons over
the age of 60, as compared to 10 million today. The working population
will be more numerous, but older. Only the number of young people is
difficult to estimate, because of the uncertainty concerning the birth
rate." The demographic consequences of alternative fertility trends
are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:40115 France.
Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]
(Paris, France). Projection of the foreign
population. [Projection de la population etrangere.] Premiers
Resultats, No. 65, Jun 1986. 4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
An
attempt is made to project the future growth of the foreign population
resident in France up to the year 2010. A distinction is made between
migrant workers and family members. Data are presented separately by
nationality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40116 Guatemala.
Direccion General de Estadistica (Guatemala City, Guatemala); United
Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa
Rica); Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA] (Ottawa,
Canada). Guatemala: population estimates and projections,
1950-2025. [Guatemala: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion,
1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/GUAT, No. 1; LC/DEM./CR/R.1, LC 85-187794. Jan
1985. vii, 162 pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Estimates and
projections of the population of Guatemala are presented for the period
1950-2025 based on data from the 1981 census and subsequent vital
statistics data. The methodology used is first outlined, and estimates
for the major demographic indicators in the period 1950-1980 are
provided. Four alternative projections to the year 2025 are
included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40117 Hablicsek,
Laszlo; Monigl, Istvan; Vukovich, Gabriella. Some
long-term population trends in Hungary in the period 1880-2001. [A
magyarorszagi nepessegfejlodes nehany hosszu tavu jellemzoje 1880-2001
kozott.] Demografia, Vol. 28, No. 4, 1985. 403-57 pp. Budapest,
Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Some long-term trends in
the dynamics of the population of Hungary from 1880 to 2001 are
examined in order to project possible developments following the year
2000. The emphasis is on the number and characteristics of the
population and on trends in fertility and mortality. The authors note
that the demographic transition is now complete and that the 1990s will
be a period of population decline unless an effective pronatalist
population policy can be developed resulting in a demographic revival.
Even if such a policy is developed effectively, there will be a
significant aging of the population.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:40118 Hugo,
Graeme. Australia's changing population: trends and
implications. ISBN 0-19-554680-6. 1986. x, 354 pp. Oxford
University Press: Melbourne, Australia. In Eng.
An attempt is made
to forecast future population trends in Australia, with emphasis on the
period up to the year 2001. The analysis is based primarily on data
from the 1981 census. The focus is on likely changes in population
characteristics rather than on total numbers. Separate consideration
is given to mortality, fertility, immigration, internal migration,
demographic aging, family characteristics, ethnic groups, and the labor
force. The purpose of the book is to provide the information needed
for social and economic planning.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:40119 Jayet,
Hubert; Le Jeannic, Thomas. Regional demographic growth:
the disparities are slowly decreasing. [Croissance demographique
regionale: les disparites s'attenuent legerement.] Economie et
Statistique, No. 190, Jul-Aug 1986. 17-27, 87, 89 pp. Paris, France. In
Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Differences in probable population
developments in France by region up to the year 2000 are examined. The
authors note that the West and Southeast of the country will still be
the regions likely to grow more rapidly and that the Northeast and
Ile-de-France will be the regions of slowest growth. However, overall,
such regional differences are likely to become increasingly less
pronounced.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40120 Kennedy,
John M.; De Jong, Gordon F.; Lichter, Daniel T. Updating
local area population projections with current migration
estimates. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 14,
No. 2, Jul 1986. 107-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this
paper, we describe a strategy for generating or updating county level
population projections, using current age-sex-race-specific migration
estimates derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census current population
estimates. Our strategy focuses on projecting local area patterns of
net migration and is illustrated using a cohort-component projection
model for counties in Pennsylvania."
Following a consideration of
the advantages of five-year age-sex-race-specific migration rates
derived from the retrospective question concerning residence on the
1980 census, the authors discuss "the use of middecade 1985 population
estimates as a benchmark for generating updated 1980-1985 migration
rates by age-sex-race for each Pennsylvania county. Finally, we
describe a migration typology, based on changes between 1975-1980 and
1980-1985 in county total net migration patterns, which is used to
generate future population projections to the year
2000."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40121 Louvot,
Claudie. Projections of the number of households,
1985-2010. [Projections du nombre de menages 1985-2010.] Premiers
Resultats, No. 71, Aug 1986. 4 pp. Institut National de la Statistique
et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Projections up to the year 2010 of households in France are
presented. Data are from the 1982 census and other official
sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40122
Matthiessen, Poul C.; Christensen, Hans S.; Svarre,
Anders. Denmark's population trends until the year
2000. [Danmarks befolkningsudvikling frem til ar 2000.] ISBN
87-88099-20-2. LC 85-232664. [1984?]. 80 pp. Rolighed: Skodsborg,
Denmark. In Dan.
These are the proceedings of a conference held in
1984 on future population developments in Denmark. It is noted that
current and recent fertility has been significantly below replacement
levels and that a decline in the population of about 10,000 per year is
forecast by 2050 if current trends continue. The need to develop
policies to encourage childbearing during the next 15 years is
discussed. Such policies would include more day-care centers,
kindergartens, and schools.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40123 Nandy,
Shekhar. Department of the Environment (DOE) household
projections. Statistical News, No. 75, Nov 1986. 20-2 pp. London,
England. In Eng.
"This article briefly describes the basis of the
method of household projections developed by the Department of the
Environment and touches on some of the problems and shortcomings." The
projections concern England and Wales only.
Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
52:40124 Nordisk
Statistisk Sekretariat (Copenhagen, Denmark). Nordic
seminar on projection. Lejondals Palace, Sweden, September 24-27,
1984. [Nordiska seminariet om prognoser. Lejondals slott,
Sverige, 24-27 september 1984.] Tekniske Rapporter, No. 37, ISBN
87-88083-21-7. 1985. 258 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan.
These are
the proceedings of a seminar on aspects of population projection held
in Sweden in September 1984 involving the countries of Denmark,
Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Topics covered include the uncertainties
in population forecasts, projecting social change, labor force
projections, political aspects, the provision of services for the sick
and aged, and the need for better data concerning births, deaths, and
migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40125 Paraguay.
Secretaria Tecnica de Planificacion. Division de Poblacion y Recursos
Humanos (Asuncion, Paraguay); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Paraguay:
population projections by sex and age. Country total, 1950-2025; urban
and rural, 1970-2000; total, urban, and rural economically active
population, 1970-2000. [Paraguay: proyecciones de poblacion por
sexo y edad. Total del pais 1950-2025; urbana y rural 1970-2000;
poblacion economicamente activa total, urbana y rural 1970-2000.]
Fasciculo F/PAR, No. 1; E/CEPAL/CELADE/L.6, Nov 1983. 116 pp. United
Nations, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago,
Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented
for Paraguay for the period 1950-2025 by sex and age group. The
projections are provided separately for rural and urban populations up
to the year 2000. Projections of the labor force are also included and
are based on data available prior to the 1982 census
results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40126 Pullum,
Thomas W.; Graham, Stephen N.; Herting, Jerald R. How to
forecast public school enrollments. American Demographics, Vol. 8,
No. 10, Oct 1986. 52-4 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
A method of
projecting future levels of school enrollment is presented based on the
experience of the Seattle school district in the state of
Washington.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40127 Rees,
Philip. Choices in the construction of regional population
projections. In: Population structures and models: developments
in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN
0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 126-59 pp. George Allen and Unwin:
Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
The author
investigates the effects of two sources of variation that affect
population projections: "the accounting framework employed in the
population projection, and the way in which the system of regions being
studied is closed. A set of empirical experiments using a United
Kingdom...twenty-zone system [is] used to tease out the significance of
these sources of variation." The resulting projections for the year
2006, including distribution by zone and age distribution, are
presented in tabular form.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:40128 Rogers,
Andrei. Parameterized multistate population dynamics and
projections. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical
Association, Vol. 81, No. 393, Mar 1986. 48-61 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"This article reports progress on the development of a
population projection process that emphasizes model selection over
demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate
population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are
illustrated [using data primarily from a number of developed countries,
particularly Sweden], together with simple techniques that extrapolate
the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such
schedules."
The author notes that "the parameterized schedules
condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a
language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of
the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of
the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and
they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise
would not be feasible."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SM).
52:40129 Scanlon,
Rosemary; Ilan, Amos. A forecast of employment, labor
force and population in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region to
1995. Apr 1986. 47 pp. Port Authority of New York and New Jersey,
Planning and Development Department, Regional Research Section: New
York, New York. In Eng.
An attempt is made to project trends over
the next 10 years in employment, labor force, and population in the New
York-New Jersey metropolitan region. Data are from official U.S.
sources and estimates prepared by the Port Authority. The forecast
indicates that the region's labor force will grow only about
three-quarters as fast as the number of jobs. "About two-thirds of
labor force growth will be accounted for by women, and virtually all
labor force growth will be accounted for by minorities." The
consequences of these trends are discussed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40130 Spencer,
Gregory. Projections of the Hispanic population: 1983 to
2080. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population
Estimates and Projections, No. 995, Nov 1986. v, 85 pp. U.S. Bureau of
the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report presents the first
official projections of the Hispanic population of the United States by
age, sex, and race for the years 1983 to 2080. "These projections are
based on July 1, 1982, population estimates and race definitions and
are projected forward using the cohort-component method with
alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net
immigration. The ultimate levels assumed for these Spanish-origin
components are identical to those of the race groups in the national
projections....Details of the assumptions and methods used in this
report are presented in later sections of this
text."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40131 Szkola
Glowna Planowania i Statystyki. Instytut Statystyki i Demografii
(Warsaw, Poland). Demographic models and projections.
[Modele i prognozy demograficzne.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 126,
1983. 215 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This
work consists of four parts. The first part, by Ryszard Zasepa, Lech
Boleslawski, and Marek Olko, deals with methods for projecting the size
and structure of the population and their application to projections
for Poland. The second part, by Bartlomiej Kaminski, Marek Okolski,
and Marcin Rybicki, presents a simulation model of fertility in Poland.
The third part, by Maria Cieslak, Ireneusz Kuropka, and Stanislawa
Ostasiewicz, examines sequential methods for making projections. A
final part, by Teresa Bazanska and Ryszard Zasepa, considers methods
for projecting the number and structure of
households.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40132 Thailand.
National Economic and Social Development Board. Working Group on
Population Projections (Bangkok, Thailand). Population
projections for Thailand, 1980-2015. Oct 1985. 61 pp. Bangkok,
Thailand. In Eng.
This report contains population projections for
Thailand up to 2015. The projections are presented by age and region
as well as for the population as a whole. The data are taken from the
1980 census, the Survey of Population Change, recent contraceptive
prevalence surveys, and other official sources.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40133 Wu,
Cangping. A preliminary study on the strategy of
population development in China. Population Research, Vol. 3, No.
2, Apr 1986. 1-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author surveys
several prospective paths of population development in China in the
twenty-first century and assesses alternative strategies and targets.
Comparisons among official Chinese, U.N., and World Bank projections
are presented in a table. In considering appropriate population
policies, the author concludes that "the policy of advocating one child
per one couple is the policy for one generation only, and it is likely
proper to advocate around 2000 no more than two children for one couple
or a gradual recovery of fertility to the replacement level, which will
be kept sustained."
This is a translation of the Chinese article in
Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 5, 1985.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40134 Yusof,
Baharum. Population projection by ethnicity for Peninsular
Malaysia 1985-2015 and some of its implications. In: Studies in
African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research
Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 711-36 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre:
Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author presents projections of the
population of Peninsular Malaysia by ethnic distribution to the year
2015. Vital registration and census data are used to describe the
changes in fertility, 1960-1980, and average life expectancy,
1970-1978, and to make fertility and mortality projections. The
implications of the projections in terms of age structure, infant
mortality, and education are briefly discussed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40135 Ivanova,
Olga. Natural population movement by nationality in the
Socialist Republic of Macedonia in the period 1953-1980. [Prirodno
kretanje stanovnistva u SR Makedoniji po narodnostima u periodu
1953-1980.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983.
148-58 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The
author compares the rates of natural increase in 1971 for the
Macedonian, Albanian, and Turkish populations in Macedonia. Declines
in the crude birth rate and in the mortality rate between 1953 and 1971
are observed. Data for the period 1971-1980 are also
presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40136 Masevska,
Sonja. Trends in natural population movement at the
commune level in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia in the period
1953-1979. [Promene u prirodnom kretanju stanovnistva na nivou
opstina u SR Makedoniji u periodu 1953-1979.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21,
No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 159-78 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
with sum. in Eng.
The author presents vital statistics by commune
for Macedonia for 1953, 1961, 1971, and 1979. Trends in general
mortality, infant mortality, fertility, and natural increase are noted,
and regional variability is discussed.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:40137 McIntosh,
C. Alison; Crane, Barbara B. Population decline: a threat
to the West? Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 5, Sep-Oct
1986. 234-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors comment on
issues recently raised concerning the trend of population decline
observed in the United States and Europe. Particular attention is
given to a paper by Ben J. Wattenberg and Karl Zinsmeister and to
another by Allen Kelley, both of which were presented at a December
1985 American Enterprise Institute symposium; aspects of the discussion
that followed are also covered. Issues in the areas of strategic
demography, population and international power, and appropriate policy
responses to declining fertility are discussed.
The authors'
assessment of the current depopulation discussion is essentially
critical. They "believe that the arguments currently circulating are
alarmist and rest on poorly justified assumptions....[and] question the
value of appeals based on cultural nationalism and fears of other
people's numbers."
For the papers by Wattenberg et al., and by
Kelley, published in 1986, see 52:30141.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40138 Proebsting,
Helmut; Fleischer, Henning. Population trends, 1985.
[Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1985.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 8, Aug
1986. 582-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The authors present official data for the Federal Republic of
Germany for 1985 concerning marriages, births, deaths, and
international migration. Findings include a slight surplus of births
for the foreign population and a continuing birth deficit for the
German population as well as a net in-migration for Germans and a net
out-migration for foreigners. The totals indicate a net decrease of
29,000 for the total population.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PF).
52:40139 Rancic,
Miroljub. Migration, urbanization, and natural population
increase. [Migracije, urbanizacija i prirodno kretanje
stanovnistva.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 22-23, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1984-1985.
5-13 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author
analyzes the interrelationships between reproduction, natural increase,
migration, and urbanization in Yugoslavia between 1920 and 1981. The
implications for population policy are discussed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:40140 Vukotic,
Veselin. Population reproduction in urban areas and other
agglomerations in Montenegro. [Reprodukcija stanovnistva u
gradskim i ostalim naseljima u Crnoj Gori.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21,
No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 99-112 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr.
with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews trends in population
reproduction in Montenegro, Yugoslavia. Data are presented on
fertility, mortality, and natural increase for the period 1961-1981.
The conflict between individual and social reproductive goals is
discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
