52:30802 Artzrouni,
Marc; Komlos, John. Population growth through history and
the escape from the Malthusian trap: a homeostatic simulation
model. Genus, Vol. 41, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1985. 21-39 pp. Rome,
Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"A Malthusian simulation
model is proposed to describe the growth of human population from the
Neolithic through the Industrial Revolution. The economy is composed
of a subsistence sector and a capital-producing sector. Our model
captures the 'incessant contest' between population growth and the
means of subsistence. When the per capita agricultural output falls
below a biological minimum, the growth rate of the population is
subject, in a random fashion, to perturbations that can take on
disastrous proportions."
It is suggested that "the slow accumulation
of capital (and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing
sector) eventually enables the population to overcome the constraints
of the hostile economic environment. Our simulations (complete with
confidence intervals) yield numerically realistic estimates of the
population that eventually escapes from the Malthusian menace and grows
unhindered during the Industrial Revolution."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:30803 Barkalov,
N. B. Modeling the demographic transition.
[Modelirovanie demograficheskogo perekhoda.] LC 84-226218. 1984. 77,
[2] pp. Izdatel'stvo Moskovskogo Universiteta: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The problems involved in modeling a population that is in a state
of transition, particularly with regard to fertility, are examined.
The practical problems of extrapolating calculations on the basis of
discrete models, the preparation of statistical data, the calculation
of parameters, and the reconciliation of models with aggregated
variables are discussed. The author proposes a trend model of the
dynamics of the distribution of women by number of births that is
reconciled with the model of changes in the age distribution of the
population.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington,
D.C.
52:30804 Haynes,
Stephen E.; Phillips, Llad; Votey, Harold L. An
econometric test of structural change in the demographic
transition. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 87, No. 3,
1985. 554-67 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The structural change
model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others
is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of
structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden,
Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports
the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual
changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of
fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of
transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the
latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired
size."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
52:30805 Jenkins,
Stephen. The implications of 'stochastic' demographic
assumptions for models of the distribution of inherited wealth.
Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1985. 231-44 pp.
Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper extends existing
distributional models to incorporate two sets of 'stochastic'
demographic assumptions: (a) where the number of heirs is randomly
determined, and (b) where the gender of a given child is randomly
determined (but the total number of heirs is non-stochastic). The
consequent increase in heterogeneity of family types might be expected
to increase the inequality of family wealth and reduce the degree of
inter-generational inheritance, relative to the 'deterministic' case,
but it is shown that this conclusion is very much conditional on the
other assumptions made; about the pattern of marriage and estate
division in particular."
Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
52:30806 Kim, Young
J. Examination of the generalized age distribution.
Demography, Vol. 23, No. 3, Aug 1986. 451-65 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"The generalized age distribution for any population in
continuous time obtained by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and
Coale (1982) is derived in the discrete time formulation in the first
part of this paper. Other expressions that follow from the age
distribution in Preston-Coale are also presented in discrete time and
age. Then the Preston-Coale procedure of using these expressions to
estimate mortality when demographic data are defective is critically
examined." A reply by Samuel H. Preston and Ansley J. Coale (pp.
463-5) is included.
This paper was originally presented at the 1985
Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population
Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 422).
For the paper by Preston
et al., published in 1982, see 51:30774.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:30807 McMillen,
David B.; Beaumont, Paul. Demographic-economic models of
population change. In: American Statistical Association, 1984
proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 304-8 pp.
American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
After
reviewing the theoretical literature on demographic-economic
interactions, the authors describe the ECESIS model, developed by the
U.S. Bureau of the Census. This model comprises an economic sector, a
demographic accounting sector, and a migration sector. The
demographic-economic linkages existing in ECESIS, the missing links,
and problems with data quality are discussed. The geographic focus is
on the United States.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:30808 Namboodiri,
Krishnan. An application of the input-output model in
demographic analysis. In: American Statistical Association, 1984
proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 309-13 pp.
American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The
present paper outlines a macro-approach to the study of demographic
phenomena, without reference to individual-level perceptions or
pleasure-pain calculations. For the present purpose, a macro framework
is understood to deal with total societies rather than subsocietal
entities...." A static and a dynamic model for a closed,
low-technology society are presented.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:30809 Pflaumer,
Peter. Stochastic population models for the analysis of
the effects of demographic processes on social security systems.
[Stochastische Bevolkerungsmodelle zur Analyse der Auswirkungen
demographischer Prozesse auf die Systeme der sozialen Sicherung.]
Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1986. 52-74 pp.
Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The aim of this
paper is to describe several methods for quantifying the amount of
uncertainty inherent in population forecasts used to assess the impact
of demographic processes on social security systems. Each method is
briefly outlined, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed.
The primary emphasis is on stochastic population models, and the
geographic focus is on the Federal Republic of
Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
52:30810 Pressat,
Roland. Demographic analysis: concepts, methods,
results. [L'analyse demographique: concepts, methodes, resultats.]
4th rev. ed. ISBN 2-13-037781-5. LC 85-673553. 1983. vii, 295 pp.
Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
This
reference volume concerning quantitative demographic analysis is
organized into four parts. In the first section, fundamental concepts
are outlined using demographic tables and principles of generational
and cohort analyses. The second part is concerned with empirical data
and the calculation of rates. Topics examined in the third part
include mortality, life tables, nuptiality and divorce, fertility,
birth history analysis, and migration. In the final section,
population structure and reproduction, theoretical population models,
and population projections are discussed. The emphasis throughout is
on methodology.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:30811 Schoen,
Robert. The two-sex multiethnic stable population
model. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 29, No. 3, Jun 1986.
343-64 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This paper is concerned with
a variety of rules for determining the ethnicity of intergroup births
in a two-sex multiethnic stable population model based on the
ethnicities of the mother and father. "Numerical examples are
presented for a two-ethnic-group population in cases where intergroup
births are shared equally by the two groups, are all considered members
of one particular group, and are all members of the father's group. A
special case of a more general model, where sons become members of the
father's group and daughters become members of the mother's group, is
also considered."
The results show that where intermarriage is
common, the process by which ethnicity is determined can substantially
influence the ethnic composition of the
population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:30812 Wagner,
Gert. A simulation system for establishing life cycles:
the longitudinal version 82.w of the Sfb 3 microsimulation system.
[Ein Simulationssystem zur Erzeugung von Lebenslaufen: die
Langsschnittversion 82.w des Sfb 3 Mikrosimulationssystems.]
Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1985. 593-623
pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng;
Fre.
"In this paper a special version of the Sfb 3 microsimulation
model is documented and discussed. The longitudinal version 82.w is
developed for the analysis of the actuarial fairness of the statutory
pension insurance funds [in the Federal Republic of Germany]." The
focus is on simulating life cycle phases. Problems in using such
models are examined.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
