Volume 52 - Number 3 - Fall 1986

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

52:30681 Birg, Herwig; Jaeger, Klaus; Schmahl, Winfried; Schmitt-Rink, Gerhard; Steinmann, Gunter; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Contributions to population economy. [Beitrage zur Bevolkerungsokonomie.] Schriften des Vereins fur Socialpolitik, Neue Folge, Vol. 153, ISBN 3-428-05969-7. 1986. 238 pp. Duncker und Humblot: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This work contains contributions dealing with demographic and economic interrelations. Topics covered include the economic theory of the family; demographic variables in economic growth theory; population development and technical progress; interregional demo-economic models for the Federal Republic of Germany; maximum consumption, population growth, and savings quotients; and the effects of demographic changes on social security for old age, illness, and disability.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:30682 Fabri, Marcel; Kantner, Andrew B. Population in development planning. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 479-99 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The authors discuss the need for and logistics of integrated population and development planning, including the location and function of a population unit, the provision of demographic inputs, the analysis of relationships between population and development, and the use of demographic-economic models. The integration of population variables in sectoral planning (with examples from the fields of agriculture, health, education, housing, and manpower) and in regional planning is also discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30683 Heerink, Nico. Long-term interrelationships between economic development and population growth: a design for a macro-level model. Publicatiereeks van de Werkgroep Ontwikkeling en Veiligheid, No. 15, Dec 1985. 25 pp. Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen, Werkgroep Ontwikkeling en Veiligheid: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
The author attempts to create a framework for analyzing the interrelationships between economic development and population growth. "This paper is concerned primarily with these long-term relationships, i.e. with a lag of 10 years or more. It tries to sketch a concept for a model that can be used for testing the significance of a large number of these postulated relationships. The initial purpose of the model was to test the asserted influence of the personal income distribution on population growth....Another purpose of the paper is to indicate a possible way of extending long-run economic models by means of including a demographic section."
An overview of the model is first presented. "Section 3 is concerned with the possibilities and the problems of estimating the model and its possible uses, and...section 4 will discuss the similarities and differences between the model and some other demo-economic models."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30684 Quibria, M. G. Fertility behaviour under uncertainty: comment. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, Sep 1983. 135-9 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The author critically assesses a model developed by Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury concerning fertility behavior in an uncertain economic environment. He concludes that "mere risk-aversion is not enough to lead to lower fertility with a reduction of uncertainty in future income. One requires a further restriction in the form of decreasing absolute risk-aversion to establish the Chowdhury result. Similarly, a higher marginal return from children does not necessarily lead to higher fertility; nor would a higher current income necessarily induce a lower family-size. To establish these results, one needs to incorporate further hypotheses regarding the structure of the utility function."
For the article by Chowdhury, published in 1981, see 50:20248.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30685 Simon, Julian L.; Steinmann, Gunter. On the optimum theoretical rate of population growth. Jahrbucher fur Nationalokonomie und Statistik, Vol. 200, No. 5, Sep 1985. 508-31 pp. Stuttgart, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Ger.
"The paper seeks intuitively-satisfying models of optimum population growth. The authors build upon Phelps's model of endogenous technical progress plus the Steinmann-Simon extension, which imply that the per-person consumption growth rate depends positively and linearly upon the population growth rate, without bound....They suggest that the consumption rate ultimately turns downwards as population growth increases because of decreasing adoption of available technology as labor cheapens relative to capital, and as high population growth overtaxes people's will and ability to respond. Including a convex-downward function in the model yields sensible results."
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:30686 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Economic recession and specific population groups. No. ST/ESA/156, Pub. Order No. E.86.IV.4. ISBN 92-1-130110-6. 1986. 99 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The effects of international economic stagnation and recession on specific population groups are examined, with particular reference to the periods 1973-1975 and 1981-1983. Consideration is given to changes in global employment, income distribution, and the solidarity of youth and the aged.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

52:30687 Benazzou, Chaouki. Population in Moroccan development planning. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 525-30 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author reviews the Moroccan experience with six development plans implemented during the period 1960-1985. Stages in development planning in Morocco are identified, including awareness of population growth, the first steps toward developing a population policy, difficulties in implementing population measures, emphasis on family planning, the absence of population objectives, and the integration of health and population aspects.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30688 Bilsborrow, Richard E.; DeLargy, Pamela F. Impact of rural development projects on demographic behaviour. Policy Development Studies, No. 9, 1985. 205 pp. United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA]: New York, New York. In Eng.
This is a collection of six papers by different authors concerning the demographic impact of rural development projects. Selected projects in the Philippines, Colombia, Thailand, Nigeria, and Brazil are discussed separately; a final paper deals with methodological issues in assessing the demographic effects of rural development projects. Also included is a brief description of the creation of the International Consortium of Research Centers for the Study of the Population Impact of Development Projects.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30689 Bronfman, Mario; Lerner, Susana; Tuiran, Rodolfo. Socio-economic consequences of mortality change in peasant societies. In: Consequences of mortality trends and differentials. Population Studies, No. 95; ST/ESA/SER.A/95, Pub. Order No. E.85.XIII.3. ISBN 92-1-151149-6. 1986. 43-51 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This chapter explores the relations between demographic changes--particularly the decline in mortality--and changes in agrarian structure. It describes the main transformations in the agrarian sector in Latin America in the past 100 years, with emphasis on the transformation from a non-capitalist economy with a relative lack of labour force into one in which capitalist relations prevail and give way to processes that generate a surplus labour force. It points out the role played by population growth in this transformation, and particularly the effects of the decline in mortality."
The authors contend that "in spatial and temporal situations, demographic changes and conditions can impose new arrangements in practices and strategies with a view to ensuring the economic and social reproduction of agrarian production units and of families. The most relevant...conclusion is the need to undertake specific studies in different agrarian contexts to allow a deeper analysis of relations between transformations in agrarian structure and demographic dynamics."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30690 Cambrezy, Luc. The question of overpopulation: the spatial organization and ecology of migration in Rwanda. [Le surpeuplement en question: organisation spatiale et ecologie des migrations au Rwanda.] Travaux et Documents de l'ORSTOM, No. 182, ISBN 2-7099-0742-9. 1984. iii, 292, [11] pp. Office de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique Outre-Mer [ORSTOM]: Paris, France; Institut Francais de Recherche Scientifique pour le Developpement en Cooperation: Paris, France. In Fre.
This study examines the relationships among rapid population growth, internal migration, and agricultural developments in Rwanda in the period since 1948. The data are primarily taken from the censuses of 1948 and 1978. The author examines how population growth has led to the cultivation of land, not only in upland areas but also in the lowland marshes, that was previously uncultivated. He also notes that migration is affected not only by population density but also by the quality of the land in question. The focus of the study is on the future agricultural development options available to the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30691 Cho, Lee-Jay; Kim, Won Bae; Lee, Seon. Urbanization and economic development policy in Korea. Academia Economic Papers, Vol. 14, No. 1, Mar 1986. 77-98 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng. with sum. in Chi.
"This paper has firstly discussed the development strategy and urbanization in [the Republic of] Korea for the period 1960-1980. [This is] followed with an intensive review of the past and recent population redistribution policy of Korea. Finally the authors make some general suggestions which are characterized as an expansion of opportunities and services in the underprivileged areas."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30692 Chowdhury, Osman H. Conditions of fertility decline in developing countries: 1960-1980. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, Sep 1983. 103-34 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This paper aims at analysing the level, trend and conditions of fertility decline in selected underdeveloped countries within the framework of a demand-supply model....The analysis focuses on how much of the observed decline in fertility has been associated with corresponding socio-economic (demand) factors and how much is explained by the effort of their family planning system." Fertility data for 42 developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America for the years 1960-1980 are analyzed. Demand variables include education, health, economic status, and urbanization factors; supply variables refer to program effort, or the strength of family planning programs in a given country. Correlation and regression analyses are used.
"The findings of this paper point to the fact that if any country wishes to reduce its birth rate and marital fertility then strong and motivated family planning programmes can play a decisive role even within a low level of socio-economic development....It is quite evident that level of 'modernization'...[has] a substantial relationship to fertility decline: the better-off countries, particularly those near the top, do better than the less well-off. That is an accepted fact in demographic theory but similarly we also find that family planning programmes have an independent and substantial effect on levels of fertility."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30693 Clausen, A. W. Population growth and economic and social development. Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 16, No. 3, Summer 1985. 167-76 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author presents the argument that rapid population growth is a major development problem for developing countries and outlines the case for effective policies and programs to reduce fertility in such countries. Examples of effective policies and programs are provided.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30694 Di Meo, Guy. The countries of the third world: social and economic geography. [Les pays du Tiers Monde: geographie sociale et economique.] Mementos de Geographie Sirey, ISBN 2-248-01042-7. 1985. vi, 226 pp. Sirey: Paris, France. In Fre.
A social and economic geography of developing countries is presented. The first section describes the situation in the developing world and includes a description of demographic trends. The second section examines the changes occurring in rural areas. The final section deals with the rapid growth of the urban population and urbanization, and with their social and economic consequences.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30695 Duza, M. Badrud. Development and population policies in the third world: practical problems and options. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 533-62 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author discusses population growth and its components in developing countries in terms of a development-oriented population policy. The problem of lack of consensus and articulation concerning the concept of development is first considered. The author then examines how socioeconomic development and related policies influence population phenomena such as fertility, health, mortality, human resources, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30696 El-Deeb, Bothina M. Population and investment: application of a model examining the interrelation between population growth and investment in Egypt. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 69-88 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
After reviewing the impact of rapid population increase on development in Egypt, the author discusses three models that describe the direct association between population growth and investment: the Coale-Hoover model, the Harrod-Domar model, and Sauvy's model. Sauvy's model is then applied to the case of Egypt "to estimate the proportion of population and economic investment in response to different population growth rates and different proportions of total investment." The author concludes with some policy implications.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30697 Fong, Monica S. Population dynamics and rural poverty. Genus, Vol. 41, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1985. 141-55 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
An overview of the relationship between demographic factors and rural poverty in developing countries is presented. The author examines both the micro- and macro-level perspectives of this relationship and the determinants and consequences of population growth. The author notes the prospects for a rapid increase in the rural labor force and considers its implications for the agricultural production structure and the need for institutional change. Consideration is also given to the continuing demand for high fertility at the family level and the role of infant and child mortality in the poverty cycle.
"The paper concludes by drawing attention to the need for developing the mechanism for reconciliation of social and individual optima with respect to family size and population growth." The need for rural development projects that take demographic factors into account is stressed as is the need for effective population programs.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30698 Gupta, Kanhaya L. Foreign capital, income inequality, demographic pressures, savings and growth in developing countries: a cross country analysis. Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 10, No. 1, Jul 1985. 63-88 pp. Richmond, Virginia. In Eng.
The author develops a framework for examining the effects of foreign capital resources, income inequality, and rapid population growth on the economic growth of developing countries. "The aim of this paper is to specify and estimate, using international cross-section data for a set of developing countries, a simultaneous equations model in which saving and growth rates and demographic factors are treated as being endogenous variables and which explicitly allows for the role of income inequality through a variety of channels."
The author concludes that "a single equation approach is highly inadequate in order to examine the role of foreign capital, population pressures and income inequality in the growth of developing countries. Our results show that the debate about the role of foreign capital is somewhat exaggerated and that more attention needs to be given to domestic factors like the role of income inequality and investment in human capital."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30699 Hammer, Jeffrey S. Population growth and savings in LDCs: a survey article. World Development, Vol. 14, No. 5, May 1986. 579-91 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature concerning the possible effects of population growth on the aggregate savings rate. The effect is examined from three perspectives: macroeconomic effects of variations in the age structure of the population, choice theoretic models of family decision-making, and market level interactions of variables which determine individual decisions." The geographic focus is on developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30700 Hogan, Daniel J. Demography and the business cycle: methodological reflections. [Demografia e conjuntura: reflexoes metodologicas.] Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Populacao, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1985. 1-7 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
Some methodological problems concerning the analysis of the demographic consequences of the recent economic crisis in Brazil are examined. Consideration is given both to the limitations of existing analytical techniques and to the availability of data. The need to take into account both short- and long-term population dynamics is noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30701 Jones, Gavin W. Asia's demographic transition: successful or stalled? In: Demographic transition in Asia, edited by Gavin W. Jones. ISBN 9971-954-20-6. LC 84-942134. 1984. 1-30 pp. Maruzen Asia: Singapore. In Eng.
A review of the demographic transition that has occurred in Asia since the end of World War II is presented. The heterogeneous nature of the region is noted, and the author points out that the fertility transition has proceeded very far in Eastern Asia, has proceeded significantly in parts of Southeastern Asia, and is still in the initial stages in most of Southern Asia. The programs designed to affect fertility that countries in Asia have introduced are described. Consideration is also given to the momentum of population growth, to future population prospects, and to urbanization.
The author concludes that the Asian experience indicates that, firstly "sharp and sustained declines in fertility can occur in poor, rural populations. Secondly, sharply increased income levels do not necessarily result (without considerable time lags, anyway) in fertility declines. Or, more broadly, the demographic transition is not inexorably linked to economic development." The importance of social policies and programs is stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30702 Kantner, John. Population in India's development. USAID/India Occasional Paper, No. 1, Jan 1986. 84, 4 pp. U.S. Agency for International Development [AID], Office of Population: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the relationship between poverty and population growth in India and specifically with whether a reduction in the rate of population growth would assist the alleviation of poverty. The author first reviews the linkages between demographic and economic factors. The bulk of the report is concerned with prospects for future population growth. Mortality and fertility prospects are analyzed separately. The study concludes with a review of the country's family planning program.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30703 Kelley, Allen C. Population and development: controversy and reconciliation. Journal of Economic Education, Vol. 16, No. 3, Summer 1985. 177-88 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
A "revisionist" approach to the role of the population factor in the development process is presented. The author argues that although population growth in itself is not a major development problem, its indirect effects exacerbate many of the problems faced by developing countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30704 Khan, M. R. Economic development and population policy in Bangladesh. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, Sep 1984. 1-18 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This paper deals with the population growth rate and its policy implications for the economy of Bangladesh....[The author] makes an effort at examining the interaction of population and other development variables in the planning process of Bangladesh." Economic developments and population growth rates are summarized, and experiences with the First Five Year Plan (1973-1978), the Two Year Plan (1978-1980), and the Second Five Year Plan (1980-1985) are discussed. Analyzing the gains from fertility reduction, the author notes that "the cost-benefit ratio of most countries [varies] between 1:10 to 1:30, for Bangladesh it is 1:16." Gains and setbacks in the implementation of family planning programs in Bangladesh are assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30705 Laine, Jean-Pierre. Demographic trends in Thailand (1970-1981) and their consequences. [L'evolution demographique en Thailande (1970-1981) et ses consequences.] Cahiers d'Outre-Mer, Vol. 38, No. 152, Oct-Dec 1985. 385-94 pp. Bordeaux, France. In Fre.
A review of demographic trends in Thailand between 1970 and 1981 and its consequences is presented. Separate consideration is given to urbanization and migration. The negative consequences of population growth discussed include the decrease in available arable land, poverty, and unemployment. Consideration is also given to the health status of the population, including public health, family planning, and malnutrition.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:30706 McCarthy, Michael J. Population density growth: economic effects and mitigation in LDCs. Pub. Order No. DA8528780. 1985. 188 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The author seeks to "provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the economic effects of population density growth....The discussion brings together disparate viewpoints from the economic sub-fields of population, development, and microeconomic theory...." The focus is on developing countries.
"The empirical results of the study show: (1) that across countries population density levels explain low levels of economic development to a much higher degree than previously acknowledged; (2) that variation in per capita income levels and growth rates, both across countries and over time, population density levels held constant, is explained by differences in economic structural and institutional characteristics."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Hawaii.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 46(10).

52:30707 Moyo, N. P. Population policy: do we need it? Prospects and problems. Zimbabwe Journal of Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, Jan 1986. 36-40 pp. Harare, Zimbabwe. In Eng.
The author challenges the assumptions that population pressure is the primary cause of poverty in Zimbabwe and that a family planning program is the remedy. The roots of rural poverty are traced to the country's colonialist and capitalist history and their impact on land tenure and development. The author goes on to question the effectiveness of family planning programs in reducing fertility levels in general. Solutions to the country's problems are to be found, it is contended, in effective socioeconomic developments efforts.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30708 Nerlove, Marc; Razin, Assaf; Sadka, Efraim. The "old age security hypothesis" reconsidered. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 18, No. 2-3, Aug 1985. 243-52 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"That the introduction of a means for transferring present to future consumption other than children in a developing country will reduce the rate of population growth is shown to depend crucially on the assumption that parents do not care about the numbers or the welfare of the children they have. When parents do care, the conclusion no longer unambiguously follows because the new means for providing for parents' old age leads to a positive income effect."
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:30709 Orubuloye, I. O.; Oyeneye, O. Y. Population and development in Nigeria. ISBN 978-181-032-7. 1983. xiii, 178 pp. Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research: Ibadan, Nigeria. In Eng.
This report is the result of a project, developed by the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER) and funded by Battelle, to examine aspects of the relationship between population and development in Nigeria. It includes papers by different authors on such topics as the current demographic situation, urbanization, educational planning, health planning, housing, environmental pollution, labor force supply, land tenure and food production, income distribution, government expenditures, and the development of a national policy on population.
Location: Population Council Library, New York, N.Y.

52:30710 Payne, Michael R.; Kripalani, G. K.; Tolley, George S. Urbanization in India: an economic-demographic analysis. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 223-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors formulate a general equilibrium economic model and a demographic model in which fertility-mortality interactions are taken into account. Simulation results concerning the rate of urbanization in India and the factors affecting it are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30711 Robinson, Warren C. Public policy, risk and fertility in Bangladesh: a comment. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 11, No. 3, Sep 1983. 39-58 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The author uses information for Bangladesh to examine the argument that development programs aimed at improving employment and income have beneficial side effects in terms of fertility reduction, as they affect the economic value of children and the environment of economic risk in which reproductive decisions are made. First, three sources of economic risk are considered: unemployment, disability, and old age. Following a discussion of the underlying theory and terminology, a model of a direct relationship between fertility and riskiness is tested using data from the 1981 census and the Bangladesh Fertility Survey.
In critically assessing the arguments postulating the beneficial fertility effects of employment programs, the author concludes that "(1) the level of economic well-being which would affect a fertility reduction is not clear in [the] model and there is no reason for supposing it would be a moderate income; (2) the cost to the government of even raising all presently unemployed, disabled or aged indigent persons to slightly above the poverty level would be several times the annual development budget; (3) the logical and theoretical under-pinnings of the model appear confused and at best dubious; [and] (4) the empirical evidence for such a link between risk and fertility is mostly negative."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30712 Sarma, R. S. S.; Sivamurthy, M. Implications of population variables for development. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 107-33 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The authors discuss the development implications of population size, growth, composition, and distribution in the third world. Factors considered include economic growth, savings and investment, labor force and employment, productivity, health conditions, education, food and housing, and communications and transport.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30713 Shrestha, Nanda R. The political economy of economic underdevelopment and external migration in Nepal. Political Geography Quarterly, Vol. 4, No. 4, Oct 1985. 289-306 pp. Guildford, England. In Eng.
The relationship between underdevelopment and emigration in Nepal is examined. The historical background to the country's current dependence on emigration is first reviewed. The author suggests that the country's hill economy is dependent on emigration for survival and that emigration in turn perpetuates the situation of underdevelopment.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:30714 Simon, David. Regional inequality, migration and development: the case of Zimbabwe. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie/Journal of Economic and Social Geography, Vol. 77, No. 1, 1986. 7-17 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The relationship between internal migration and development in Zimbabwe is analyzed. The author suggests that current migration trends can only be understood in the context of the country's colonial past, in which a contrast in levels of development existed between the central areas dominated by European settlement and the peripheral zones of mainly African settlement. Accelerating migration to urban areas following independence and policy changes designed to accelerate the transformation to a more socialist economy are increasing the problems of regional inequality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30715 Soliman, Nadia H. Development and demographic trends in Egypt. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 59-67 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author discusses recent trends in population growth, population structure, population distribution and density, and internal and external migration in Egypt and attempts to assess their impact on development. The information discussed is from published documents and government sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

52:30716 Boyer, Paul L. Demographic dimensions of the world economic crisis. [Dimensions demographiques de la crise economique mondiale.] Mondes en Developpement, Vol. 12, No. 47-48, 1984. 51-62 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author contends that aspects of the world economic crisis and the fertility decline in developed countries have origins in the disequilibrium in the age distribution of the population, caused by World War II and exacerbated by the rigidity of the employment structure. Theories linking the age structures of populations, global equilibrium in supply and demand, and capital accumulation are outlined. The impact of employment conditions on fluctuations in fertility as hypothesized by Easterlin is considered, and a regression model is applied to data for European and North American countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30717 Denton, Frank T.; Spencer, Byron G. Population aging and the economy: some issues in resource allocation. QSEP Research Report, No. 105, Sep 1984. 44 pp. McMaster University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Program for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population: Hamilton, Canada. In Eng.
The authors examine economic effects of population change, with a particular focus on resource allocation and an aging population. Following an introductory section, "Section 2 offers a review of changes in the Canadian population and associated changes in the labour force, and then a look into the...future. Section 3 provides a general discussion of how changes in the population affect the economy and the adjustment problems that result. Some aspects of intergenerational relations are examined in Section 4 by the use of alternative calculations of past and future 'dependency ratios' within the Canadian population."
An economic-demographic model is elaborated in the next section, "as a vehicle for simulating simultaneously the supply and demand effects of population change at the level of the macro-economy. The effects of future population change on government budgets in Canada are then considered, in Section 6. In Sections 7, 8, and 9, further attention is directed to the three most age-sensitive components of public expenditure, namely pensions, health care, and education, making use again of the economic-demographic simulation model."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30718 Hugo, Graeme. Population aging in Australia: implications for social and economic policy. Papers of the East-West Population Institute, No. 98, ISBN 0-86638-078-7. LC 86-9005. Apr 1986. vii, 47 pp. East-West Center, Population Institute: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
The implications of current trends in demographic aging in Australia for economic and social policy are analyzed. "After briefly reviewing the contemporary demographic aging of Australia's population and its likely course over the next two decades, the paper examines the Australian social security system, which differs substantially from others in most developed countries, including the United States, in that it is noncontributory and historically has focused on the alleviation of poverty rather than replacement of earnings."
The author notes that a change has occurred in that elderly people increasingly view the pension as an earnings replacement rather than as a means to alleviate poverty. This change is reflected in modifications in age at retirement, migration, housing, and living arrangments among the elderly. The implications of these changes, particularly for public spending, are assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30719 Leeson, Graham W. Ageing and economic welfare. Genus, Vol. 41, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1985. 157-69 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"The purpose of the present paper is to seek to elucidate the effects of recent and future population development upon the economic welfare of the Danish population as a whole, but especially of the elderly." It is shown that the proportion of the elderly in the total population has increased from 10 percent in 1900 to 20 percent in 1984 and is likely to increase to 21 percent in 2000 and 30 percent in 2025. The consequent increase in the dependency burden on those of working age is examined. The need for greater economic efficiency, higher fertility, and increased labor force participation by the elderly in order for the country to respond to this challenge is noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30720 Lesthaeghe, R. Relations between generations and the future of the welfare state: sociological and demographic considerations. [De verhoudingen tussen generaties en de toekomst van de verzorgingsstaat: sociologische en demografische beschouwingen.] Tijdschrift voor Sociologie, Vol. 5, No. 1-2, 1984. 219-37 pp. Gent, Belgium. In Dut.
The implications of recent changes in European patterns of family formation and dissolution are reviewed. Such changes include a greater level of self-reliance and a diminishing investment in the family. This in turn may lead to a greater dependence on the welfare state at a time when the public sector of the economy is experiencing difficulties and may be unable to meet the increasing demands placed on it. The author estimates that the increase in the size of the aged population and the decrease in the population of working age will not cause serious problems before the turn of the century. However, a crisis is likely around the year 2000, as a shrinking labor force will have to support a rapidly growing number of elderly.
Location: Harvard College Library, Widener Library, Cambridge, Mass.

52:30721 McNicoll, Geoffrey. Economic growth under non-replacement fertility. Center for Policy Studies Working Paper, No. 120, Dec 1985. 39 pp. Population Council, Center for Policy Studies: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This essay explores the economic implications of continuing below-replacement fertility in the developed countries of the West. Effects of low fertility on labor supply, technological change, and investment and consumption are noted, but their economic growth and welfare consequences, it is argued, can for the most part be discounted provided some reasonable degree of institutional adaptability is present."
The author discusses two aspects of the economic consequences of below-replacement fertility. "One is the potential influence of low fertility on income distribution and economic mobility. Social security issues, while properly seen as highly important, are only a subset of an intricate mesh of distributional relationships affected by fertility patterns. The other area is that of international economic relations, given the trend toward demographic inconsequence of the rich countries and the uncertain prospects of their continued technological dominance."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30722 Oskolkova, O. "Zero growth" of population and its consequences for the West. ["Nulevoi rost" naseleniya i ego posledstviya dlya stran Zapada.] MEMO: Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodnye Otnosheniya, No. 8, 1985. 41-54, 159 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The consequences of the decline in fertility in Western Europe and Northern America are analyzed. The author first describes current demographic trends and suggests that the trend toward population decline is probably irreversible. Consideration is given to determinants of fertility such as industrialization, urbanization, women's economic activity, educational standards, health services, social security, demographic policy, and income. Factors affecting Western fertility are identified as inflation, unemployment, and spiritual impoverishment.
The existence of various schools of thought in Western countries concerning the implications of these trends is noted. These include the fear of the environmental impact of further population growth and the fear of the consequences of population decline. The author concludes that a period of stable population growth will mean a decline in the available labor force, an increase in the age of the labor force, an increase in the number of pensioners, a change in the structure of demand, and other problems for capitalist societies.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:30723 Simon, Julian L. Theory of population and economic growth. ISBN 0-631-14427-7. LC 85-28574. 1986. xi, 232 pp. Basil Blackwell: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The long-term effects of population growth on standards of living in the developed world are explored. The author uses the mathematical theory of economic growth and develops the hypothesis that technological change responds in various ways to variations in population size, density, and growth. The main purpose of the book is to provide a practical guide to policy decisions concerning population matters in large developed countries.
"The author reviews the theory from Petty and Malthus to Kaldor, Arrow, and Phelps, and builds upon that base. He provides a formal supply-demand framework for analysing the quantity of technology produced under different demographic conditions, and surveys the relevant empirical evidence. He analyses a learning-by-doing model which shows that more people imply a higher standard of living. And he develops the basic growth-theoretic model which, with realistic parameters, concludes that faster population growth implies higher income within the next century or two."
Location: New York Public Library.

52:30724 Tegtmeier, Werner. The demographic transformation--a challenge to labor market and social policies. [Der demographische Wandel--eine Herausforderung an Arbeitsmarkt- und Sozialpolitik.] Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1986. 97-110 pp. Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The implications of future demographic trends for labor market and social policies in the Federal Republic of Germany are discussed. The focus is on how trends such as demographic aging and declining fertility will affect the labor market, employment, and old-age security.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30725 Way, Peter O. Issues and implications of the aging Japanese population. CIR Staff Paper, Dec 1984. vii, 128 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines the implications of demographic aging in Japan. Current demographic trends that are contributing to the rapid aging of the population are described. Comparisons are made with the present and future situations in the United States. Japanese retirement programs are considered, and the implications of current demographic trends for the social security burden on the working-age population and for changes in the traditional social system are reviewed.
This paper was originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, pp. 403-4).
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii. Source: East-West Population Institute, Acquisitions List, Jan-Feb 1986.

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

52:30726 Blaxter, Kenneth. People, food and resources. The R. M. Jones Lectures in the Development of Ideas, ISBN 0-521-32300-2. LC 85-26941. 1986. xii, 118 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the global relationships among population, food, and natural resources. The author begins with the basic theory proposed by Malthus concerning these relationships. Next, he examines the possibilities for increasing the nutritional status of the world's population and the supply of food and other essentials. The moral implications of some of the economic and scientific advances proposed to resolve such problems are also considered. The solution to the problems posed are seen to lie in a combination of population control, population relocation, education, the selective use of modern technology in land reclamation and food production, and the development of industry in rural areas of the developing world.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:30727 Caldwell, John C.; Reddy, P. H.; Caldwell, Pat. Periodic high risk as a cause of fertility decline in a changing rural environment: survival strategies in the 1980-1983 South Indian drought. Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 34, No. 4, Jul 1986. 677-701 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The authors examine demographic behavior in an environment characterized by periodic high risk, with a particular focus on fertility decline in light of defensive strategies for mitigating risk associated with drought-induced famine. The data are for 387 households in nine rural villages in Karnataka, India, surveyed in June and July 1983. Attention is given to the impact of the two-year drought on life and welfare; chief disaster-avoidance strategies at the household level; demographic and social aspects of the drought; and support systems, including sources of loans.
The instability of rural incomes is seen as a chief concern of the Indian families interviewed, and reducing susceptibility to this risk is shown to be a major determinant of individual and family behavior.
The authors conclude that "demographic behavior has changed only because there are new strategies for reducing risk that were not previously available. The major reason for this new availability is economic change, especially in the form of the growth of nonagricultural employment. The government has played a considerable role in reducing rural risk through extending credit facilities, creating work-for-food programs and assisting with food supplies during famine....The government's major contribution to the new risk-aversion strategies and the related decline in fertility has been the provision of rural schooling and, at least in the short term, of the family-planning program."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

52:30728 Duza, M. Badrud. Population, resources, environment, and development: issues and ramifications for the third world. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 33-58 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
This paper provides a general resource and environmental perspective for researchers and other professionals involved in population and development. After reviewing the general issues of population growth, resources, and the environment, the author discusses the supply and demand problem and the carrying capacity of the earth. He concludes with a policy agenda.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30729 Gilland, Bernard. On resources and economic development. Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, No. 2, Jun 1986. 295-305, 377, 379 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The major climatic effects expected from a doubling of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide can be avoided only by phasing out the use of fossil fuels over the next century. The cost of developing nonfossil energy sources and the relationship between growth of agricultural output and increasing use of energy-intensive inputs, when considered in relation to the projected growth of world population, indicate that natural resources will ultimately be a constraint on economic growth as well as population growth."
It is noted that "the constraints operating at present, however, are political and cultural rather than physical."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30730 Liu, Ts'ui-jung. Agricultural change and population growth: a brief survey on the case of China in historical perspective. Academia Economic Papers, Vol. 14, No. 1, Mar 1986. 29-68 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng. with sum. in Chi.
A historical review of the relationship between agricultural change and population growth in China is presented. "This paper will try to discuss four aspects of agricultural change that are related to population growth. They are: (1) expansion of agricultural frontier, (2) changes in cultivation methods and land use, (3) improvements in agricultural technology, and (4) irrigation and water-control. Each of these aspects [is] treated briefly with temporal and spatial perspectives...."
The relevance of the Boserup theory that population pressure leads to agricultural development is considered in the Chinese context. It is found that some evidence supports the theory.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30731 Podhisita, Chai. Peasant household strategies: a study of production and reproduction in a northeastern Thai village. Pub. Order No. DA8528781. 1985. 419 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
The adoption of new agricultural techniques and the limitation of family size are observed among residents of a village in northeastern Thailand. "An analysis suggests that production factors play a dominant role in the relationship between household production and reproduction. The findings allow an interpretation in light of the adaptive model by which productive and reproductive strategies are viewed as 'peasant adaptation'."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Hawaii.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 46(10).

52:30732 Soemarwoto, Otto. A quantitative model of population pressure and its potential use in development planning. Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 12, No. 24, Dec 1985. i-ii, 1-15 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng. with sum. in Ind.
An attempt is made to develop a quantitative model of the concept of population pressure, using the example of population pressure on land resources in agricultural societies. "The model shows that environmental quality is tied to population growth and that population pressure does not bear relationship with population density." The implications of the findings for development planning are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30733 Tellier, Luc-Normand. Demographic growth and food production in developing countries: a non-linear model. Ekistics, Vol. 52, No. 313, Jul-Aug 1985. 383-8 pp. Athens, Greece. In Eng.
The systems approach is used to simulate the evolution of the relationships among population growth, food production, agricultural extension, and intensification of cultivation in developing countries. A simple model is developed and applied to data concerning the famine and drought problems in Niger and ecological systems in the Sahel region.
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

52:30734 Bernhardt, Eva M. Women's home attachment at first birth: the case of Sweden. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 2, No. 1, May 1986. 5-29 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The impact of the transition to parenthood on the labour-force activity of Swedish women one year after first birth is studied using data from the 1981 Swedish Fertility Survey. The probability of remaining at home one year after delivery is found to be significantly affected by length of education, marital status, early labour-force withdrawal and duration of union." Data are for a sample of 4,300 women aged 20-44.
This paper is also published as Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 28, Stockholm, Sweden, University of Stockholm, Oct 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30735 Breton, Albert. Marriage, population, and the labour force participation of women. ISBN 0-660-11502-6. LC 84-184530. 1984. x, 33 pp. Economic Council of Canada: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng.
The author constructs a model to explain the differences observed between male and female participation in the labor force. "The explanation (or hypothesis) proposed in this essay rests on some organizational features of marriage markets....I suggest that the difference in the conditions and terms under which men and women participate in the labour force is related to the structure of marriage markets and of the markets in which the commodities produced in marriages can also be purchased--namely, sex, children, security, and so on."
According to the author, "the structure of the marriage market helps to determine the differences between men and women in the volume of schooling acquired, in the type of subjects studied, and in the occupational choices made. These differences, in turn, help to determine the differences in the extent of labour force participation, and in the level and configuration (age profile) of earnings." Policy implications of the model are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:30736 Bubnova, E. M. Demographic waves and labor resources. Problems of Economics, Vol. 29, No. 3, Jul 1986. 61-8 pp. Armonk, New York. In Eng.
The author examines the causes, nature, and socioeconomic consequences of medium-term fluctuations in the sizes of age groups in the Soviet Union, with particular attention to the impact on the dynamics of the nation's labor resources. Developments since World War I are outlined, and projections through the end of the twentieth century are summarized. Changes over time in the age distribution of a small population in a Kama River community are used as an example.
This is a translation of the Russian article in Ekonomika i Organizatsiya Promyshlennogo Proizvodstva, No. 6, 1985, pp. 159-66.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30737 El-Biblawi, Hayam A. Some implications of education on labour force and economic development in Egypt. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 365-96 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The impact of education on the quality and size of the labor force in Egypt is analyzed using data from the 1960 and 1976 censuses and the 1982 Labour Force Sample Survey. The role of education in the utilization of the labor force and its impact on unemployment and underemployment are also considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30738 Elchardus, M.; Martin, A. Labor market commitment of women: the influence of task structure, degree of control, and other job characteristics. [De beroepsverbondenheid van vrouwen: de invloed van de takenstructuur, van de mate van gecontroleerdheid en van andere eigenschappen van de arbeidssituatie.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 3, Dec 1985. 311-35 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The labor force participation of women in the Flemish region of Belgium is examined using data from a probability sample of 1,321 women born between 1930 and 1955. The focus is on the relationship between job characteristics and the continuity of employment. The results indicate that job quality and interest are major factors affecting the continuation of women's labor force participation, particularly after having a child.
"The effects of the quality of the job are mostly direct and have only a small effect on fertility behaviour. Women with interesting jobs do tend to continue their labour market participation, (almost) irrespective of the number of children they get."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30739 El-Tahir, El-Tahir M. Human resources and development in the Sudan. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 397-407 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author discusses various aspects of human resources and development in Sudan. Topics considered include economic activity rates, the occupational and industrial composition of the labor force, unemployment and underemployment, and labor force supply and demand. Labor force projections for the period 1985-2000 are provided.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30740 Faidutti, Anne-Marie. The reorganization of the role of foreigners in the active population of France given the combined effects of the economic crisis and their permanent settlement. [La reorganisation de la place des etrangers dans la population active francaise sous la double influence de la crise et de la sedentarisation.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 2, 1986. 16, 191-6 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
An analysis of the role of foreigners in the labor force of France is presented using data from the 1982 census. The author notes that foreigners made up 8 percent of the male labor force in 1982, compared with 9.3 percent in 1975. Changes in the type of activity performed by foreigners over time are discussed. It is noted that while migrants of Moroccan, Portuguese, and Turkish origin continue to work largely in jobs traditionally filled by immigrants, Italians, Spaniards, and Algerians are found in an increasingly wide range of jobs, indicating the increasing level of their permanent integration into the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30741 Feldman, Jacob J. Work ability of the aged under conditions of improving mortality. In: Consequences of mortality trends and differentials. Population Studies, No. 95; ST/ESA/SER.A/95, Pub. Order No. E.85.XIII.3. ISBN 92-1-151149-6. 1986. 185-91 pp. U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs: New York, New York. In Eng.
The author seeks to clarify some of the issues surrounding the designation of an appropriate retirement age. A primary focus of the discussion is the extent to which improved mortality conditions actually reflect improved health. Data for the United States are presented showing declining death rates and increased work disability rates. Anticipated future developments, including the concept of the compression of infirmity, are mentioned.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30742 Fossett, Mark A.; Galle, Omer R.; Burr, Jeffrey A. Racial occupational inequality, 1940-1980: the impact of the changing regional distribution of the black population on inequality at the national level. Texas Population Research Center Papers, Series 8: 1986, No. 8.012, 1986. 27, [5] pp. University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center: Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"This paper investigates the impact of the changing regional distribution of the [U.S.] black population on trends in occupational inequality between black and white men aged 25-64 at the national level between 1940 and 1980. Standardization techniques are used to estimate the impact of two forces promoting change in aggregate racial inequality. The first is changes in compositional differences between blacks and whites reflected in shifts in the distribution of blacks and whites across age, education, and region categories. The second is changes in the relative occupational opportunities for blacks reflected in shifts in the occupation distributions for blacks and whites with similar characteristics of age, education, and region of residence."
The findings show that "aggregate inequality between blacks and whites declined at the national level in each decade between 1940 and 1980, but the reasons for the declines differed across the decades. In the 1940s and 1950s, changes in the regional distribution of the black population played the dominant role in generating reductions in inequality at the national level, and changes in the relative opportunity structure for blacks served to increase rather than diminish inequality. In contrast, in the 1960s and 1970s, changes in relative occupational opportunities for blacks played the dominant role in generating reductions in inequality, and changes in the regional distribution of the black population had only a minor impact."
This paper was originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 381).
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30743 Kantner, Andrew. Human resources and development. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 319-63 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author discusses the relationship of labor force supply and participation to the structure of social and economic change in developing countries. He presents an agenda of program priorities for human resources development that covers rural development, education, social welfare programs, female economic activity, and population distribution policies.
Tabular data for selected developing countries are included on population and labor force growth, 1970-2000; crude economic activity rates by sex; population density by land area, 1982; percentage of labor force in agriculture, industry, and services, 1960 and 1980; and urban population structure and growth, 1960-1982.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30744 Klauder, Wolfgang. Effects of future population trends on the labor market--analyses based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations. [Auswirkungen der zukunftigen Bevolkerungsentwicklung auf den Arbeitsmarkt--Analysen auf der Grundlage von Modellrechnungen des Instituts fur Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung.] Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1986. 75-96 pp. Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The effects of future population trends, such as demographic aging, declining fertility, and changes in migration, on the labor market in the Federal Republic of Germany are analyzed up to the year 2000. The study is based on projections prepared by the Institute for Research on the Labor Market and Occupations. Topics discussed include demographic trends as a cause of current unemployment, labor market phases and demographic trends since 1950, the projection model used, age-specific projections of the potential labor force, and labor market projections.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30745 Nakano, Eiko; Yamamoto, Chizuko; Inaba, Hisashi. The work career of married women in Japan. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 178, Apr 1986. 33-47 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The work careers of women belonging to the 1960-1964 and 1970-1974 marriage cohorts in Japan are analyzed using retrospective data from a 1984 survey concerning the labor force participation of married women in four areas of the country. Cohort effects and age effects are differentiated, and the characteristics of part-time and full-time employment are assessed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30746 Owen, D. W.; Green, A. E. Modelling population and sectoral employment change in British local labour market areas, 1971-81. Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies Discussion Paper, No. 61, Nov 1984. 38 pp. University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies: Newcastle upon Tyne, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, data on population change from the 1971 and 1981 Censuses of Population [of the United Kingdom], and on manufacturing and service employment change from the 1971 and 1981 Censuses of Employment is used to investigate the relationship between population and employment change over the decade at the Local Labour Market Area (LLMA) scale. The relative importance of selected aspects of urban structure, population and labour market characteristics as causal factors in determining population and employment change is assessed using a series of regression models."
The findings indicate "a clear correspondence between population growth and increasing employment in the service sector, and between declining manufacturing employment and population loss. The overall picture emerging of Britain in the 1970s is one of a declining manufacturing 'heartland', contrasting with rapid population and employment growth in the towns and cities located outside the Metropolitan Regions. It is concluded that, in terms of growth prospects, the division between the 'Old' and 'New' Britain appears firmly established, and likely to persist."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30747 Schettkat, Ronald. Population and employment behavior trends in Austria, Sweden, and the Federal Republic of Germany. [Bevolkerungs- und Erwerbsverhaltensentwicklung in Osterreich, Schweden und der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.] IIM/LMP Discussion Papers, No. 84-12, Jul 1984. 48 pp. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin, Internationales Institut fur Management und Verwaltung: Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper analyses the developments of the registered labour supply (labour force) in Austria, Sweden and the Federal Republic of Germany during the 60s and 70s. The overall change in the labour force is divided into three components: the change in population, the change in age and sex structure and the change in employment behaviour. At first for each country the overall changes in the labour force are shown, then the analysis [goes] into more detail looking at the effects of employment behaviour in age and sex categories."
Location: International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland.

52:30748 Shantakumar, G. Perspective manpower development in Singapore. In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 419-41 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author discusses labor force trends in Singapore from 1957 through 1983, including participation and unemployment rates, labor demand and productivity in various sectors, and occupational distribution. Manpower planning, problems related to the employment of foreign workers and older workers, and strategies for sustained economic growth are also considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30749 Thomson, Peter. Sources of local employment information: a comparison of census of employment data with 1981 population census workplace data. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 13, No. 1, Apr 1985. 39-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The two main sources of data on employment in the United Kingdom, the population census and the census of employment, are compared. The differences in the data they provide are identified, and their respective defects and limitations are outlined. Consideration is given to techniques for estimating employment for small local areas using the example of the West Midlands Region.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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