Volume 52 - Number 3 - Fall 1986

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

52:30100 Bertrand, Michel. The demography of the Rabinal region from the seventeenth to the nineteenth century. [Demografia de la region de Rabinal del siglo XVII al XIX.] Mesoamerica, Vol. 7, No. 11, Jun 1986. 3-22 pp. South Woodstock, Vermont/Antigua, Guatemala. In Spa.
A review of demographic trends in the Guatemalan region of Rabinal from the seventeenth to the nineteenth century is presented. The author notes that during this period the population recovered from its post-conquest decline and grew in size, primarily due to the growth of a new mixed-race population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30101 Fargues, Philippe. A century of demographic change in Mediterranean Africa, 1885-1985. [Un siecle de transition demographique en Afrique mediterraneenne, 1885-1985.] Population, Vol. 41, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1986. 205-32 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"A reconsideration of the population statistics collected in Egypt and Algeria during the past hundred years produces some evidence which suggests that the commonly held view that the demographic transition in those countries was 'imported' by reason of medical progress introduced by the colonial power is incorrect. There is evidence to suggest that mortality declined earlier and that this development coincided, in the beginning at least, with economic growth during the nineteenth century. As regards birth rates, a secular upward trend gradually gave way to a declining one. Both these are probably caused by a tendency for marriages to have become more stable."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30102 Krishan, Gopal; Kant, Surya. Spurts in India's population growth during the twentieth century: a spatial view. Geoforum, Vol. 17, No. 1, 1986. 57-67 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The demographic transition in twentieth-century India is analyzed using census data. The authors first examine the extent to which 1921 and 1951 can be identified as the two critical points in the demographic transition process. Particular attention is paid to regional differences in the pace of the transition process.
The results confirm the overall validity of the two selected years as critical points in the transition although the timing of the transition was significantly different when examined from a regional perspective. They also indicate that the demographic transition model is appropriate to the Indian experience although the threshold levels at which changes occurred were different.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

52:30103 Moll, Isabel; Segura, Antoni; Suau, Jaume. A chronology of the demographic crises in Majorca, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. [Cronologia de les crisis demografiques a Mallorca, segles XVIII-XIX.] ISBN 84-00-05405-9. LC 84-201460. 1983. 188, [17] pp. Institut d'Estudis Balearics: Palma, Spain. In Cat.
An analysis of population trends in the Spanish Mediterranean island of Majorca in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries is presented. A review of data sources is first presented. The focus of the study is on the demographic swings and associated demographic crises that occurred over time and their causes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30104 Okazaki, Yoichi. Population of Japan in the Meiji-Taishyo era: a reestimation. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 178, Apr 1986. 1-17 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
After reviewing previous estimates of the Japanese population in the pre-censal years from the 1860s to 1920, the author presents a reestimation for this period based on more recent studies in historical demography and on Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. "The most important revision in the present estimation [is] that life-table death rates...for the Meiji-Taishyo era are estimated by Gompertz curves with upper and lower limits in place of the former linear curves."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

52:30105 Demeny, Paul. The world demographic situation. Center for Policy Studies Working Paper, No. 121, Dec 1985. 52 pp. Population Council, Center for Policy Studies: New York, New York. In Eng.
"After a review of long-run global trends in population growth, the paper discusses the contemporary demographic situation and prospective demographic trends in major world regions, drawing upon United Nations estimates and projections and, for more distant prospects, upon World Bank projections. The discussion is set against the background of demographic changes observed since 1950. In addition to population growth and size, the main topics considered are mortality, fertility, and urbanization."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30106 El-Kashef, Samy A. Population, labour force and employment in the economic and social development Five Year Plan of Egypt (1982/83-1986/87). In: Population and development. Proceedings of the symposium held at Cairo Demographic Centre, 3-7 November 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 14, 1986. 501-24 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Objectives and accomplishments of Egypt's Five Year Plan of development are described. Data are included on population projections, 1981-2001; population estimates, 1981-1987; population distribution by educational and working age groups, 1981-1987; labor force estimates, 1981-1987; and employment by sector, 1977-1987.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30107 Groenewold, W. G. F.; de Jong, S. P. The American Samoa Territorial Household Survey of 1985: description, evaluation and preliminary analysis of demographic data. Groningen Demographic Reports, No. 11, 1986. viii, 145 pp. Groningen State University, Geographical Institute: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
An analysis of recent demographic trends in American Samoa is presented using data from a household survey undertaken on the main island of Tutuila and on the neighboring island, Aunuu, in 1985. The data concern approximately 4,754 individuals in over 700 households. The survey methodology and execution are first described, and the quality of data is evaluated. In the analysis, chapters are included on age and sex distribution, marital status, fertility, and mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30108 Hohn, Charlotte; Otto, Johannes. Report on the demographic situation in the Federal Republic of Germany and on world population trends. [Bericht uber die demographische Lage in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und uber die Weltbevolkerungstrends.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1985. 445-518 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
This article consists of two sections. The first deals with the current demographic situation in the Federal Republic of Germany. Topics covered include marriages and divorces, fertility, induced abortion, mortality, international and internal migration, population size and structure, the German and foreign populations, and households and families. The second section focuses on world population trends. Attention is given to population trends in individual world regions, age and sex structure, fertility trends, mortality and life expectancy, marriage behavior, urbanization, international migration, and future global population trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30109 Kadane, Joseph B.; Ericksen, Eugene. Revised estimates of state and central city populations on census day, 1980. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 208-10 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper uses information gathered by the [U.S.] Census Bureau for evaluation of the 1980 Census in order to give improved estimates of the population for 16 central cities and 50 states and remainders of states." The hierarchical model used to estimate the undercount is reviewed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30110 Levy, Michel-Louis. Three island departments. [Trois departements insulaires.] Population et Societes, No. 204, Jul-Aug 1986. 1-4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
An analysis of the demographic situation in the French overseas departments of Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Reunion is presented using data from the 1982 census round.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30111 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Recent demographic trends. [Evolution demographique recente.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1986. 55-9 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
The demographic situation in Luxembourg in 1985 is reviewed. Separate consideration is given to fertility, nuptiality and divorce, mortality, and migration. Significant trends include the continued decline in fertility among the foreign population, a new peak in the number of divorces, and a decline in infant mortality to under 10 per 1,000 for the first time.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30112 Panama. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo (Panama City, Panama). Panama: estimates and projections of population, 1950-2025. [Panama: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/PAN, No. 1, Nov 1983. 98 pp. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo: Panama City, Panama; U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Revised population estimates and projections for Panama are presented based on data from the 1980 census. The first part contains an evaluation of the quality of the data available, estimates of the main demographic parameters for the period 1950-1980, and consideration of likely future trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration. The second part consists of data on population growth from 1950 to 1980 and four alternative projections for the period 1980-2025. An annex includes abridged life tables for 1950, 1960, 1970, and 1979-1980.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30113 Polle, Victor F. L. Population estimation from aerial photos for non-homogeneous urban residential areas. Case studies from Teheran and Colombo. ITC Journal, No. 2, 1984. 116-22 pp. Enschede, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The author describes a method for estimating urban populations in developing countries through the interpretation of aerial photographs. It is noted that "reliable results can be obtained, however, only if the housing areas which are homogeneous with respect to physical characteristics are also homogeneous with respect to population densities. Case studies from Teheran [Iran] and Colombo [Sri Lanka] are used to illustrate different methods in different situations. Standard deviations from census data are approximately 20 percent, but standard deviations of 30 to 50 percent are not exceptional."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30114 Seychelles. Statistics Division (Victoria, Seychelles). Census update 1981-82: district population. Statistical Bulletin, [1984?]. 23 pp. Victoria, Seychelles. In Eng.
Data are presented on the population of districts in Seychelles by age and sex. The data are from the 1981-1982 and 1977 censuses.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30115 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of the United States and components of change: 1970 to 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 990, Jul 1986. iii, 15 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report provides estimates of the population of the United States for each month from January 1, 1950, to January 1, 1986. It also shows estimates of the components of change for the total population by race for each calendar year and for each year ending June 30 from 1970 to 1985."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30116 United States. Hawaii. Department of Planning and Economic Development. Research and Economic Analysis Division (Honolulu, Hawaii). The population of Hawaii, 1980-1985. Hawaii Statistical Report, No. 190, Jul 2, 1986. 12 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
Population trends in Hawaii between 1980 and 1985 are presented. Data are from the U.S. Bureau of the Census and official sources in Hawaii.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30117 Verma, Ravi B. P.; Basavarajappa, K. G.; Bender, Rosemary K. Estimation of local area population: an international comparison. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 324-9 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to discuss the current status of methodology on local area population estimation in five developed countries, Australia, Canada, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the U.S.A....The methods employed are compared with respect to the accuracy and the timeliness of estimates and the consistency of procedures and data sources used for different geographic levels."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30118 Yang, Zihui. A preliminary analysis of negative population growth in Taicang county. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 3, May 29, 1985. 36-40 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
In 1983 Taicang county, Kiangsu province, China, showed a negative population growth rate of -2.75 percent, the first such negative growth recorded for a county in recent years. The significance of this example is discussed. It is noted that Taicang's birth rate was 5.51 per 1,000 and its death rate was 8.26 per 1,000. Factors that may have contributed to this population decline are considered, including the family planning program, late marriages and delayed births, and age structure effects on the death rate.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30119 Zhang, Zhongshen; Yang, Qunsheng; An, Hongsheng; Fang, Di. Characteristics of population development in Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Population Research, Vol. 2, No. 4, Oct 1985. 46-9 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
An analysis of population trends in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone of China, located on the Hong Kong border, is presented. The emphasis is on the characteristics of the population of this special zone.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

52:30120 Akkerman, Abraham. Household and population projections for Quebec: counties, districts and municipalities, 1986-2021. Household and Population Projections Canada, Vol. 1, No. 3, ISBN 0-9690999-5-9. 1985. 129 pp. DemoSystems: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
This is one of a series presenting household and population projections for the provinces of Canada up to the year 2021. The present publication "presents a detailed forecast of population and households to the year 2021 in the 76 Counties, Districts and Municipalities of the province of Quebec. The forecast is presented in a set of Tables in 5-year intervals for 5-year age-groups." Data are from the censuses of 1976 and 1981.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30121 Binet Giannoni, Francoise. An attempt at estimating urban growth in Africa up to the year 2000: population projections. [Essai de quantification de la croissance urbaine en Afrique a l'horizon 2000: projections demographiques.] Etudes et Documents, No. 59, Feb 1984. 402 pp. Ministere des Relations Exterieures, Cooperation et Developpement, Sous-Direction des Etudes du Developpement: Paris, France. In Fre.
This publication presents five-year projections by age and sex for the urban populations of 25 African countries up to the year 2000. Data are primarily taken from censuses conducted between 1970 and 1980. For some countries, lack of adequate data has resulted in restricted projections only. The methodology for preparing the projections is described.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30122 Bourcier de Carbon, Philippe; Chaunu, Pierre. Statistical genocide: looking for 1,893,000 foreigners who have disappeared in the INED computer. [Un genocide statistique: on recherche 1,893,000 etrangers disparus dans l'ordinateur de l'I.N.E.D.] Histoire, Economie et Societe, No. 1, 1986. 159-68 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors note that the official population projections for France prepared in 1980 contained an error that led to the omission of nearly 2 million foreigners in the projections for the year 2015. They note that the incorrect projections were used as the basis for a series of discussions on the implications of immigration during the early 1980s and as a basis for the development of current French population policy.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30123 Bretz, Manfred. Population predictions: statistical bases and problems. [Bevolkerungsvorausberechnungen: statistische Grundlagen und Probleme.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 4, Apr 1986. 233-60, 144*-5* pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This article deals with methodological aspects of population forecasts and projections, with a geographic focus on the Federal Republic of Germany. The statistical basis for projections is first described, and the factors affecting the components of population change are outlined. Problems in making assumptions about these factors are noted, various projection methods are discussed, and the accuracy of projections is considered. Some examples are included showing how different assumptions can affect the results of population projections.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30124 Canada. Quebec (Province). Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec (Quebec, Canada). Description and methodology used in the multi-regional population projections prepared by the Quebec Statistical Bureau, 1981-2006. [Description et methodologie du modele de perspectives demographiques multiregionales du BSQ, 1981-2006.] Statistiques Demographiques, ISBN 2-550-16360-5. 1986. 82 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre.
The methodology used to prepare multi-regional population projections for the Canadian province of Quebec is presented. Separate consideration is given to the treatment in the projections of fertility, mortality, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30125 Chan, M. H. The production of official population projections. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 11, No. 3, Oct 1985. 241-51 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
The author describes the method used by the New Zealand Department of Statistics for producing official population projections, including the identification of the base population, and the formulation of fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. The limitations and use of projections for forecasting purposes, as well as the availability of projection information and services, are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30126 Crothers, Charles. Workshop on population projections: an introduction and an agenda of issues. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 11, No. 3, Oct 1985. 230-40 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
As an introduction to a workshop on population projections organized as part of the 10th New Zealand Demographic Society Conference, the author describes current New Zealand projections--national, subnational, labor force, and housing--and the underlying knowledge base. Methodological issues are briefly discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30127 Daykin, Chris. Projecting the population of the United Kingdom. Population Trends, No. 44, Summer 1986. 28-33 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author provides an overview of the methods and assumptions used by the Government Actuary's Department in producing official population projections for the United Kingdom. Comments directed at users of the projections are also included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30128 de Vries, A. S. W. Projecting the age structure of total and working population and the dependency burden in historical perspective: the Dutch case. Institute for Economic Research Discussion Paper Series, No. 8509/G, Apr 1985. 25, 11 pp. Erasmus University Rotterdam, Institute for Economic Research: Rotterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
This study is concerned with changes in the age structure in developed countries and the dependency burden. The example used is the Netherlands. The changes in the age composition of the population from 1950 to 2030 are first described, and their implications for public expenditure are assessed. Next, the Dutch experience in population forecasting is evaluated by examining eight projections made for the year 1980 and projections of the labor force for 1980 made in 1965. The results are then summarized, and the author concludes that proposed policies to deal with the problems of demographic aging involve increases in the tax rate up to the year 2010 to avoid major increases in tax rates after 2010 due to rapid population aging.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30129 Dinkel, Reiner. Theory and techniques of demographic forecasting. [Theorie und Technik demographischer Prognose.] Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1986. 28-51 pp. Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This paper focuses on theories and techniques for forecasting fertility and mortality. Period and cohort analyses of fertility and mortality in Germany over the past century are first discussed. Alternative techniques for forecasting future trends in these variables in the Federal Republic of Germany are then outlined. The economic and social policy consequences of different mortality and fertility assumptions are also briefly noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30130 Gatzweiler, Hans P. A projection model of regional population development in the Federal Republic of Germany. [Ein Modell zur Prognose der regionalen Bevolkerungsentwicklung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.] In: Geographie als Sozialwissenschaft: Beitrage zu ausgewahlten Problemen kulturgeographischer Forschung, Wolfgang Kuls zum 65. Geburtstag, edited by Franz-Josef Kemper, Hans-Dieter Laux, and Gunter Thieme. Colloquium Geographicum, Vol. 18, ISBN 3-427-74181-8. 1985. 144-79 pp. Ferdinand Dummlers: Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper presents a multiregional model to forecast population by sex, age and nationality (Germans, foreigners) in the Federal Republic of Germany. The model is fundamentally based on 75 functional regions." Two submodels are included: one for fertility and mortality and one for internal and international migration. The model is illustrated by projecting the population to the year 2000 under assumptions of constant regional age-specific fertility and mortality as well as constant age-specific migration rates.
Location: State University of New York Library, Albany, N.Y.

52:30131 Hamalainen, Hannu; Honkanen, Ossi; Kivisto, Mirja. Population projection by municipalities, 1984-2010. [Kunnittainen vaestoennuste 1984-2010/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis 1984-2010.] Tilastotiedotus/Statistisk Rapport, No. VA 1985:10, Dec 31, 1985. 103 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng; Fin; Swe.
Population projections for Finland to the year 2010 are presented. Two alternative projections are presented, one including and one excluding international migration. The projections indicate that the total population will start to decline around the year 2000.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30132 Johnson, Kenneth P.; Friedenberg, Howard L. Regional and state projections of income, employment, and population to the year 2000. Survey of Current Business, Vol. 65, No. 5, May 1985. 39-63 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Regional and state projections for the United States up to the year 2000 of total personal income, earnings, and employment are presented for 13 industries and for population. The data are from official sources for the year 1983. The methodology used in the projections is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

52:30133 Mexico. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica [INEGI] (Mexico City, Mexico); Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO] (Mexico City, Mexico). Population projections for Mexico and its federal divisions: 1980-2010. [Proyecciones de la poblacion de Mexico y de las entidades federativas: 1980-2010.] ISBN 968-809-766-7. 1985. xiii, 134 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
Population projections by age and sex for Mexico and its 32 states are presented up to the year 2010. The data are from official sources, including the 1980 census. Details on the methodology used in preparing the projections are included. Two alternative projections are presented: one assumes that the objectives of the national population policy will be achieved; the other assumes only partial success in achieving them.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30134 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. Direccion General de Demografia. Direccion de Proyecciones e Indicadores de Poblacion (Lima, Peru). Peru: population projections by calendar years, by department, province, and district for the period 1980-1990. [Peru: proyecciones de poblacion por anos calendarios, segun departamentos, provincias y distritos, periodo: 1980-1990.] Boletin Especial, No. 9, Jul 1985. ii, 84 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population projections for Peru are presented by department, province, and district up to the year 1990. A brief review of population trends is first presented, followed by a description of the methodology used.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:30135 Rincon, Manuel. Population estimates and projections. [Estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion.] CELADE Serie B, No. 1010, Mar 1984. v, 132 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
The general principles and methods of calculating population estimates and projections are described, and their utility is outlined. Sections are included on calculations for total populations and on population projections for sex and age groups and for subpopulations by region, occupation, and selected other factors. The methods are illustrated using Latin American data, primarily for Costa Rica.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30136 Rogers, Andrei. Regional population projection models. Scientific Geography Series, Vol. 4, ISBN 0-8039-2374-0. LC 85-50412. 1985. 96 pp. Sage Publications: Beverly Hills, California/London, England. In Eng.
This manual describes how to prepare subnational population projections. The mathematical analysis involved is described and illustrated using actual regional projections. "The examples show how to calculate numerically regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30137 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Projections of the number of households and families: 1986 to 2000. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 986, May 1986. 11 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Projections of the number of households and families are presented for the United States for the years 1986 to 2000. Three alternative projections are provided. Consideration is given to changes in the average size of households and families, households by type, and households by age of householder. The methods and assumptions used in preparing the projections are outlined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30138 Wachter, K. W. Ergodicity and inverse projection. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 2, Jul 1986. 275-87 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In ordinary demographic projection, the starting age structure of a population ceases to matter after a time, whatever changes the birth and death rates undergo within bounds. The inhomogeneous or 'weak' ergodic theorem asserts this eventual independence of starting state. Does the same independence hold true for inverse projection? This paper proves that the answer is 'yes' provided the model life-table family satisfies certain reasonable conditions, but that the answer can be 'no', if more extreme life-table families are allowed." The relevance of these findings for historical demography and the contemporary forecasting of subpopulations subject to constraints is noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30139 Wade, Alice H. Social Security area population projections, 1985. Actuarial Study, No. 95, Pub. Order No. SSA 11-11542. Oct 1985. 81 pp. U.S. Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
These population projections underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance System of the United States. They differ from those prepared by the Bureau of the Census both in some of the assumptions made, and because they include estimates for Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and other U.S. citizens living abroad.
For the 1984 projections, see 50:30130.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30140 Weller, Robert H.; Serow, William J.; Terrie, E. Walter. Projecting the age-sex composition of local areas through the use of census cohort-change rates. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 330-4 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors "test the robustness of the census cohort-change rate methodology for forecasting age-sex composition using census data for counties in Florida during the 1960-1980 interval." The method's performance is favorably assessed, and the error level and the issue of systematic error are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

52:30141 American Enterprise Institute (Washington, D.C.). The birth dearth: depopulation in the West. Does it hurt us economically? geopolitically? Public Opinion, Vol. 8, No. 6, Dec-Jan 1985-1986. 6-20, 53-60 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
These two papers and the accompanying discussion are a product of a symposium organized by the American Enterprise Institute in December, 1985, on the consequences of population decline in the Western developed countries. The first paper, by Ben J. Wattenberg and Karl Zinsmeister, is concerned with the geopolitical consequences of the birth decline. The next paper, by Allen Kelley, examines the economic consequences.
The concluding discussion includes comments by Ray Cline, Murray Feshbach, Edward Luttwak, Alison McIntosh, Geoffrey McNicoll, Michael Novak, Richard Perle, Michael Teitelbaum, and Etienne van de Walle.
Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

52:30142 Pathak, K. B.; Murthy, P. K. A study of growth, concentration and redistribution of population in Orissa. Indian Journal of Social Work, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul 1985. 217-29 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
"In the light of 1981 [Indian] Census results, an attempt has been made to study the growth, concentration and redistribution of population in Orissa. It was revealed that there is a decrease in the growth rate during 1971-81 in almost all the districts of Orissa except in Sambalpur. There is a gradual decline in the concentration and redistribution of population in Orissa from 1901 to 1981. Application of Path analysis shows that the influence of rate of growth on redistribution is very high when compared to the other variables like literacy, urbanisation, density and sex ratio."
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).


Copyright © 1986-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.