Volume 52 - Number 2 - Summer 1986

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

52:20710 Blalock, Hubert M. Cross-level analyses. In: The collection and analysis of community data. WFS seminar on collection and analysis of data on community and institutional factors, 20-23 June 1983, edited by John B. Casterline. 1985. 187-206 pp. International Statistical Institute [ISI]: Voorburg, Netherlands; World Fertility Survey [WFS]: London, England. In Eng.
The author seeks to summarize some of the important points from the diverse literature of the social sciences concerning cross-level analyses and, in particular, contextual-effects models. Implications of the methodology for research design are considered. The intent is to make technical, methodological discussions accessible to those conducting empirical research.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20711 de Beer, J. A. A. Turning points in demographic trends. [Omslagpunten in demografische trends.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 2, Feb 1986. 29-33 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A method for estimating demographic turning points using spline functions is described. It involves using a nonlinear least squares method to estimate the points in time at which such turning points occur. "The method is employed for assessing turning points in the trends of the numbers of live births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, emigrants and internal migrants after the Second World War in the Netherlands. In general the trends can be described adequately by specifying three turning points after 1950."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20712 Hakulinen, Timo; Abeywickrama, Kamal H. A computer program package for relative survival analysis. Computer Programs in Biomedicine, Vol. 19, No. 2-3, 1985. 197-207 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
A computer program package that is designed for use in patient survival analyses for chronic diseases based on aggregated data is presented. The central concept in the analysis is the relative survival rate, which measures patient survival adjusted for the effect of mortality attributable to the competing risks of death without using data on causes of death for individual patients. The package can also be used for conventional survival and competing risk analyses.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

52:20713 Hill, Catherine; Laplanche, Agnes; Rezvani, Ali. Comparison of the mortality of a cohort with the mortality of a reference population in a prognostic study. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 4, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1985. 295-302 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
A method of cohort analysis that can be used with either mortality or morbidity data to compare incidence or death rates in a cohort to rates in a reference population is described. An example using data on a cohort of patients with thyroid cancer is given.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

52:20714 Hobcraft, John; Murphy, Mike. Demographic event history analysis: a selective review. Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 1, Spring 1986. 3-27 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
This is a selective review of the literature concerning demographic event history analysis. "We have attempted to emphasize work that we consider to be particularly important or innovative, to note some of the difficulties that may arise with the use of event history analysis, and to point to several substantive areas where research is still poorly developed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20715 Kotowska, Irena. Demographic-economic models and their usefulness. [Modele demoekonomiczne i ich uzytecznosc.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/82, 1985. 73-89 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"The main purpose of the article is to discuss [the] usefulness of demographic modelling for demographic forecasting and for policy making and planning. The considerations concern the chosen group of the models named economic-demographic models. These quantitative models describe economic-demographic interaction in the development process." Problems concerning the use of these models are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20716 Marques, Manuel P. de O. A methodology for estimating the number of graduates. [Metodologia para a previsao de diplomados.] Revista do Centro de Estudos Demograficos, No. 26, 1983-1984. 11-47 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
A methodology for estimating the number of graduates in Portugal is presented. The model is tested using incomplete data available concerning primary education.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20717 Paszek, Barbara. The aggregation of demographic phenomena with respect to concurrence risks. [Agregacja zdarzen demograficznych z uwzglednieniem ryzyk konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/82, 1985. 91-103 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The possibilities of defining net probabilities of concurrence risks for various aggregated demographic phenomena are explored. Formulas that define the probability of the sequence of occurrences of demographic events in the case of aggregated phenomena are derived.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20718 Pollak, Robert A. A reformulation of the two-sex problem. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 2, May 1986. 247-59 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a 'birth matrix' and a 'mating rule.'".
By placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), the author establishes "that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20719 Rogers, Andrei; Willekens, Frans. Migration and settlement: a multiregional comparative study. GeoJournal Library, ISBN 90-277-2119-X. LC 85-25626. 1986. xix, 496 pp. D. Reidel: Dordrecht, Netherlands. Distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, Hingham, Mass. In Eng.
This book is the result of an eight-year project developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, involving a comparative study of multi-regional population dynamics. The project, known as the Migration and Settlement Study, involved both work done at IIASA and in the cooperating countries. The book consists of a series of papers by individual authors. The primary focus is methodological.
The first two chapters describe the organization, methodology, and data and accounting frameworks for the 17 countries and 139 regions included in the study. Chapters are then presented on the components of change, including mortality, fertility, and migration. Next, multi-regional analyses are presented concerning population projections up to the year 2000; case studies of population dynamics in the United Kingdom, the USSR, and Canada; and the relationship between migration and urban change. A final section includes four papers on multi-regional mathematical demography, with chapters included on life tables and spatial population dynamics.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20720 Sivamoorthy, M. A simple proof of the weak ergodicity theorem in demography. Janasamkhya, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jun 1984. 39-43 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.
"The proof of weak ergodicity of the age distribution has been given by Lopez using matrix algebra and also by McFarland using an elementary approach. This paper presents a simple proof of the theorem using the law of averages. The assumptions involved are almost the same as those assumed by McFarland."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20721 Waltisperger, Dominique; Roger, Gilles. Stable and destabilised populations. [Populations stables, populations destabilisees.] Development Centre Papers, Feb 1986. 218 pp. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD], Development Centre: Paris, France. In Eng; Fre.
This report is published in conjunction with a program of the French Groupe de Demographie et du Developpement that was designed to make easily accessible to demographers the various methods currently in use to analyze imperfect statistics. "The purpose of this booklet is to outline two sets of theoretical models which will be used to test the analytical methods: models of stable structures--populations, deaths; [and] models of destabilised structures taking account of declining death or fertility rates, or the simultaneous decline of both. All of these structures were calculated with reference to the mortality models published by the OECD Development Centre in 1980. The predominantly Muslim regional model (Region A) was employed."
This report is "an analytical handbook reviewing the whole range of available methods and techniques, and detailing the demonstrations upon which they are based....As a rule, these methods are based on specific assumptions (stable population, for example) which are rarely corroborated in reality. Our intention is to measure what effect non-conformity with the assumptions has on the results yielded by such methods."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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