Volume 52 - Number 2 - Summer 1986

I. Historical Demography and Demographic History

Studies dealing with the demographic events of any given period from the early historical to the modern, defined as being World War I.

I.1. General Historical Demography

Comprehensive surveys, notes of sources, and items on the state of research. Particularly concerned with the period before modern vital registration was introduced and censuses were taken. Historical items that primarily pertain to one specific demographic variable are classified first under the specific heading and then cross-referenced to this heading.

52:20568 Bratescu, Gheorghe. Epidemics and their demographic consequences. [Epidemiile si consecintele lor demografice.] Revista de Istorie, Vol. 37, No. 5, May 1984. 430-8 pp. Bucharest, Romania. In Rum. with sum. in Fre.
The impact of epidemics on mortality in historical demography is reviewed using information concerning Barcelona, Spain, and Brasov, Romania. The author shows the importance of socioeconomic factors, in that each time an epidemic raises mortality, socioeconomic factors quickly attract in-migrants to compensate for any population losses sustained. The author concludes that epidemics alone did not cause population declines in European cities but only reinforced declines that might have been occurring for socioeconomic reasons.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

52:20569 Galenson, David W. Traders, planters, and slaves: market behavior in early English America. ISBN 0-521-30845-3. LC 85-14890. 1986. xiv, 230 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
An analysis of the Atlantic slave trade in the seventeenth century is presented using data from the archives of the Royal African Company. Topics considered include the determinants of mortality during the Atlantic crossing, slave auctions, the demographic composition of the slave trade, and the migration of plantation owners away from the West Indies.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20570 Galloway, Patrick R. Long-term fluctuations in climate and population in the preindustrial era. Population and Development Review, Vol. 12, No. 1, Mar 1986. 1-24, 166, 168 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Advances in climatological history have yielded new evidence to support the view that climate has been an important influence on long-run demographic fluctuations. A model is proposed in which long-term changes in climate affect population growth directly through the effect of variations in temperature on vital rates and indirectly through its effect on food supply. The model is tested using data from western Europe, China, and middle latitude marginal areas. Over the long term, periods of cooling appear to be strongly associated with periods of depressed population growth."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20571 Goldstone, J. A. The demographic revolution in England: a re-examination. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1, Mar 1986. 5-33 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Wrigley and Schofield recently argued that from 1541 to 1841 real wages, acting on nuptiality, determined English fertility, with a lag of roughly 40 years....[In this paper] I first examine the mechanism that Wrigley and Schofield proposed...[and] show that if the wage series is corrected, wages did, indeed, affect fertility, but with a lag of about 15-20 years, and acting only on the proportion marrying. In Section II I show that during the eighteenth century this mechanism was overwhelmed by changes in the age at first marriage that appear to owe little to shifts in the level of real wages."
In the third section "this change is examined in further detail, and it is shown that it marked a dramatic departure from the previous relationship between wages, fertility and mortality in English demographic history. In Section IV an attempt is made to explain this demographic revolution, including an examination of the possible role of proto-industrialization and proletarianization."
For the book by Wrigley and Schofield, published in 1981, see 48:10658.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20572 Hall, Wayne. Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 22, No. 6, 1986. 687-90 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Passengers' chances of surviving the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the sinking."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:20573 Hammel, E. A. Short-term demographic fluctuations in the Croatian military border of Austria, 1830-1847. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 1, No. 2-3, Jul 1985. 265-90 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Crude birth, death and marriage rates are examined for the Croatian military defence zone and cordon sanitaire against Turkey for the period 1830-1847. From 20 to 80 per cent of the variance in medium- and short-term swings in rates can be attributed to epidemics and fluctuations in grain harvest and livestock holdings. Standardization of the data to adjust for extreme ecological variation between micro-regions is essential. The 'Malthusian' status of this late feudal population is established, at the outset of long-term fertility decline."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 447).
For the German version of this paper, also published in 1985, see 52:10569.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20574 Koeslag, Johan H. Population homeostasis during the demographic transition? South African Journal of Science/Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Wetenskap, Vol. 81, No. 2, Feb 1985. 66-72 pp. Johannesburg, South Africa. In Eng.
Reasons for the demographic transition that occurred in Europe are considered. Using historical Swedish data, the author argues that the fertility decline that has occurred in Europe over the past 250 years is the result of homeostatic regulation. He points out that since population growth has not increased as fast as the food supply, poverty and hunger in the developing world are therefore due primarily to the upheavals caused by social change and the obsolescing of traditional forms of livelihood.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

52:20575 Kovacsics, Jozsef. Results and problems of research concerning encyclopedias of local history. [A helytorteneti lexikonokkal kapcsolatos kutatasok eredmenyei es problemai.] Demografia, Vol. 28, No. 2-3, 1985. 279-307 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Available sources of data for the study of historical demography in Hungary are reviewed. The information forms part of a larger project involving the development of encyclopedias of local history for counties for the period 1526-1980; this project was the subject of a conference held in 1984. Sections are included on data concerning population estimates, occupations, vital statistics, and housing.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20576 Leboutte, Rene. Data banks: a second wind for demography. [Les banques de donnees: un second souffle pour la demographie.] Population et Famille, No. 57, Nov 1985. 111-24 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The author describes the historical demographic data bases developed in Umea, Sweden, and elsewhere in the Scandinavian countries and their use for the purposes of demographic research and social history. The possibility of developing similar projects in Belgium, which has numerous population registers, is also explored.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20577 Pearce, Carol G.; Mills, Dennis R. Researching in the Victorian censuses: a note on a computerized, annotated bibliography of publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books. Quarterly Journal of Social Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jan 1986. 55-68 pp. Hillsdale, New Jersey/London, England. In Eng.
The authors describe a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for nineteenth- century censuses for England and Wales. The results are currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population. Information is provided on using the data and the computerized bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses of Scotland and Ireland have been added.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:20578 Percy, Michael B.; Reid, Bradford G. Harvest fluctuations, expectations formation and demographic variables: Sweden 1815-1913. Department of Economics Research Paper, No. 85-1, Jan 1985. 24, ii pp. University of Alberta, Department of Economics: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
The authors investigate the relationship between expectations formation and demographic variables in a primarily agrarian economy using data for Sweden for the years 1815-1913. The focus is on the impact of income instability, in the form of harvest fluctuations, on marital fertility and infant mortality. Two models of expectations formation are used, an ARIMA process and a sequential auto-regressive process; harvest fluctuation is analyzed in terms of anticipated and unanticipated components.
According to the authors, "two important conclusions emerge from this analysis. First, evidence is generated in support of 'rationality' in the formation of expectations about future harvest conditions....Second, the empirical analysis demonstrates that for demographic variables arising from a planning process, in this case the married fertility rate, it is important to distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated income movements when attempting to measure the influence of income upon these variables."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20579 Pfister, Christian. Climate in Switzerland from 1525 to 1860 and its significance in the history of population and agriculture. [Das Klima der Schweiz von 1525-1860 und seine Bedeutung in der Geschichte von Bevolkerung und Landwirtschaft.] Academica Helvetica, No. 6, ISBN 3-258-03319-6. 1984. 184, [61]; 163, [10] pp. Paul Haupt: Bern, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The present study has assembled a body of evidence for the history of climate, agriculture and population in Switzerland. It attempts to interpret this evidence and to offer a provisional synthesis that combines climatic changes, productivity patterns, and structural shifts in agriculture, and to correlate them with demographic trends." The study is published in two volumes and covers the period 1525-1860.
In the first volume, entitled "Climatic History of Switzerland, 1525-1860", the methods used to reconstruct past weather patterns from various historical sources are discussed. Climatic patterns are then described. The second volume, entitled "Population, Climate, and Agricultural Modernization, 1525-1860", begins with a section on the problem of measuring climatic influences on agrarian and demographic history. Climatic trends, agricultural modernization, and their consequences for the food margin of the population, mortality, and population growth are then analyzed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

I.2. Methods of Historical Demography

Applications of demographic methodology to the records of the past in order to obtain further demographic information. Relevant items are coded here and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models if of more general interest than to historical demography alone.

52:20580 Bouchard, Gerard. The processing of ambiguous links in computerized family reconstruction. Historical Methods, Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter 1986. 9-19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reports on a computerized system for automatically linking records, which is currently being used in an ongoing family reconstitution project. The project is aimed at reconstructing families through linking 660,000 baptism, marriage, and burial certificates for the Saguenay region of Quebec, Canada, for the years 1842-1971. "This paper deals with a familiar problem encountered in all projects using automatic linkage of name-data: the ambiguities and incompatibilities generated by competing links, in a context of multiple files." The advantages of the proposed linking system in overcoming this type of problem are outlined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20581 De Brou, David; Olsen, Mark. The Guth algorithm and the nominal record linkage of multi-ethnic populations. Historical Methods, Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter 1986. 20-4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors discuss the advantages of the letter-by-letter comparative algorithm proposed by Gloria Guth over language-specific systems for linking records involving surnames in a multi-ethnic population. The paper "begins with a brief description of three language-specific systems--the Russell Soundex Code, the Henry Code, and FONEM--and delineates the inadequacies of these linkage strategies when applied to multi-ethnic populations. The major part of the paper focuses on the Guth algorithm and its application to a multi-ethnic population, the voting electorate of Haute-Ville de Quebec [Canada] from 1814 to 1836."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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