52:20568 Bratescu,
Gheorghe. Epidemics and their demographic
consequences. [Epidemiile si consecintele lor demografice.]
Revista de Istorie, Vol. 37, No. 5, May 1984. 430-8 pp. Bucharest,
Romania. In Rum. with sum. in Fre.
The impact of epidemics on
mortality in historical demography is reviewed using information
concerning Barcelona, Spain, and Brasov, Romania. The author shows the
importance of socioeconomic factors, in that each time an epidemic
raises mortality, socioeconomic factors quickly attract in-migrants to
compensate for any population losses sustained. The author concludes
that epidemics alone did not cause population declines in European
cities but only reinforced declines that might have been occurring for
socioeconomic reasons.
Location: Princeton University
Library (FST).
52:20569 Galenson,
David W. Traders, planters, and slaves: market behavior
in early English America. ISBN 0-521-30845-3. LC 85-14890. 1986.
xiv, 230 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge,
England. In Eng.
An analysis of the Atlantic slave trade in the
seventeenth century is presented using data from the archives of the
Royal African Company. Topics considered include the determinants of
mortality during the Atlantic crossing, slave auctions, the demographic
composition of the slave trade, and the migration of plantation owners
away from the West Indies.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:20570 Galloway,
Patrick R. Long-term fluctuations in climate and
population in the preindustrial era. Population and Development
Review, Vol. 12, No. 1, Mar 1986. 1-24, 166, 168 pp. New York, New
York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Advances in climatological
history have yielded new evidence to support the view that climate has
been an important influence on long-run demographic fluctuations. A
model is proposed in which long-term changes in climate affect
population growth directly through the effect of variations in
temperature on vital rates and indirectly through its effect on food
supply. The model is tested using data from western Europe, China, and
middle latitude marginal areas. Over the long term, periods of cooling
appear to be strongly associated with periods of depressed population
growth."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20571 Goldstone,
J. A. The demographic revolution in England: a
re-examination. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1, Mar 1986. 5-33
pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Wrigley and Schofield recently argued
that from 1541 to 1841 real wages, acting on nuptiality, determined
English fertility, with a lag of roughly 40 years....[In this paper] I
first examine the mechanism that Wrigley and Schofield proposed...[and]
show that if the wage series is corrected, wages did, indeed, affect
fertility, but with a lag of about 15-20 years, and acting only on the
proportion marrying. In Section II I show that during the eighteenth
century this mechanism was overwhelmed by changes in the age at first
marriage that appear to owe little to shifts in the level of real
wages."
In the third section "this change is examined in further
detail, and it is shown that it marked a dramatic departure from the
previous relationship between wages, fertility and mortality in English
demographic history. In Section IV an attempt is made to explain this
demographic revolution, including an examination of the possible role
of proto-industrialization and proletarianization."
For the book by
Wrigley and Schofield, published in 1981, see 48:10658.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20572 Hall,
Wayne. Social class and survival on the S.S. Titanic.
Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 22, No. 6, 1986. 687-90 pp. Elmsford,
New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Passengers' chances of surviving
the sinking of the S.S. Titanic were related to their sex and their
social class: females were more likely to survive than males, and the
chances of survival declined with social class as measured by the class
in which the passenger travelled. The probable reasons for these
differences in rates of survival are discussed as are the reasons
accepted by the Mersey Committee of Inquiry into the
sinking."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
52:20573 Hammel, E.
A. Short-term demographic fluctuations in the Croatian
military border of Austria, 1830-1847. European Journal of
Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 1, No. 2-3, Jul 1985.
265-90 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Crude
birth, death and marriage rates are examined for the Croatian military
defence zone and cordon sanitaire against Turkey for the period
1830-1847. From 20 to 80 per cent of the variance in medium- and
short-term swings in rates can be attributed to epidemics and
fluctuations in grain harvest and livestock holdings. Standardization
of the data to adjust for extreme ecological variation between
micro-regions is essential. The 'Malthusian' status of this late
feudal population is established, at the outset of long-term fertility
decline."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented
at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America
(see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 447).
For the
German version of this paper, also published in 1985, see 52:10569.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20574 Koeslag,
Johan H. Population homeostasis during the demographic
transition? South African Journal of Science/Suid-Afrikaanse
Tydskrif vir Wetenskap, Vol. 81, No. 2, Feb 1985. 66-72 pp.
Johannesburg, South Africa. In Eng.
Reasons for the demographic
transition that occurred in Europe are considered. Using historical
Swedish data, the author argues that the fertility decline that has
occurred in Europe over the past 250 years is the result of homeostatic
regulation. He points out that since population growth has not
increased as fast as the food supply, poverty and hunger in the
developing world are therefore due primarily to the upheavals caused by
social change and the obsolescing of traditional forms of
livelihood.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington,
D.C.
52:20575 Kovacsics,
Jozsef. Results and problems of research concerning
encyclopedias of local history. [A helytorteneti lexikonokkal
kapcsolatos kutatasok eredmenyei es problemai.] Demografia, Vol. 28,
No. 2-3, 1985. 279-307 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng;
Rus.
Available sources of data for the study of historical
demography in Hungary are reviewed. The information forms part of a
larger project involving the development of encyclopedias of local
history for counties for the period 1526-1980; this project was the
subject of a conference held in 1984. Sections are included on data
concerning population estimates, occupations, vital statistics, and
housing.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20576 Leboutte,
Rene. Data banks: a second wind for demography. [Les
banques de donnees: un second souffle pour la demographie.] Population
et Famille, No. 57, Nov 1985. 111-24 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
with sum. in Eng.
The author describes the historical demographic
data bases developed in Umea, Sweden, and elsewhere in the Scandinavian
countries and their use for the purposes of demographic research and
social history. The possibility of developing similar projects in
Belgium, which has numerous population registers, is also
explored.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20577 Pearce,
Carol G.; Mills, Dennis R. Researching in the Victorian
censuses: a note on a computerized, annotated bibliography of
publications based substantially on the census enumerators' books.
Quarterly Journal of Social Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jan 1986. 55-68 pp.
Hillsdale, New Jersey/London, England. In Eng.
The authors describe
a project, begun in 1981, to locate, list, and annotate all the
published work based substantially on the census enumerators' books for
nineteenth- century censuses for England and Wales. The results are
currently available in a computerized file, enabling a variety of
searches by topic, geographical area, and type of population.
Information is provided on using the data and the computerized
bibliography. The authors note that, subsequently, data for censuses
of Scotland and Ireland have been added.
Location: New York
Public Library.
52:20578 Percy,
Michael B.; Reid, Bradford G. Harvest fluctuations,
expectations formation and demographic variables: Sweden
1815-1913. Department of Economics Research Paper, No. 85-1, Jan
1985. 24, ii pp. University of Alberta, Department of Economics:
Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
The authors investigate the relationship
between expectations formation and demographic variables in a primarily
agrarian economy using data for Sweden for the years 1815-1913. The
focus is on the impact of income instability, in the form of harvest
fluctuations, on marital fertility and infant mortality. Two models of
expectations formation are used, an ARIMA process and a sequential
auto-regressive process; harvest fluctuation is analyzed in terms of
anticipated and unanticipated components.
According to the authors,
"two important conclusions emerge from this analysis. First, evidence
is generated in support of 'rationality' in the formation of
expectations about future harvest conditions....Second, the empirical
analysis demonstrates that for demographic variables arising from a
planning process, in this case the married fertility rate, it is
important to distinguish between anticipated and unanticipated income
movements when attempting to measure the influence of income upon these
variables."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20579 Pfister,
Christian. Climate in Switzerland from 1525 to 1860 and
its significance in the history of population and agriculture.
[Das Klima der Schweiz von 1525-1860 und seine Bedeutung in der
Geschichte von Bevolkerung und Landwirtschaft.] Academica Helvetica,
No. 6, ISBN 3-258-03319-6. 1984. 184, [61]; 163, [10] pp. Paul Haupt:
Bern, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The present
study has assembled a body of evidence for the history of climate,
agriculture and population in Switzerland. It attempts to interpret
this evidence and to offer a provisional synthesis that combines
climatic changes, productivity patterns, and structural shifts in
agriculture, and to correlate them with demographic trends." The study
is published in two volumes and covers the period 1525-1860.
In the
first volume, entitled "Climatic History of Switzerland, 1525-1860",
the methods used to reconstruct past weather patterns from various
historical sources are discussed. Climatic patterns are then
described. The second volume, entitled "Population, Climate, and
Agricultural Modernization, 1525-1860", begins with a section on the
problem of measuring climatic influences on agrarian and demographic
history. Climatic trends, agricultural modernization, and their
consequences for the food margin of the population, mortality, and
population growth are then analyzed.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:20580 Bouchard,
Gerard. The processing of ambiguous links in computerized
family reconstruction. Historical Methods, Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter
1986. 9-19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reports on a
computerized system for automatically linking records, which is
currently being used in an ongoing family reconstitution project. The
project is aimed at reconstructing families through linking 660,000
baptism, marriage, and burial certificates for the Saguenay region of
Quebec, Canada, for the years 1842-1971. "This paper deals with a
familiar problem encountered in all projects using automatic linkage of
name-data: the ambiguities and incompatibilities generated by
competing links, in a context of multiple files." The advantages of
the proposed linking system in overcoming this type of problem are
outlined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:20581 De Brou,
David; Olsen, Mark. The Guth algorithm and the nominal
record linkage of multi-ethnic populations. Historical Methods,
Vol. 19, No. 1, Winter 1986. 20-4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The
authors discuss the advantages of the letter-by-letter comparative
algorithm proposed by Gloria Guth over language-specific systems for
linking records involving surnames in a multi-ethnic population. The
paper "begins with a brief description of three language-specific
systems--the Russell Soundex Code, the Henry Code, and FONEM--and
delineates the inadequacies of these linkage strategies when applied to
multi-ethnic populations. The major part of the paper focuses on the
Guth algorithm and its application to a multi-ethnic population, the
voting electorate of Haute-Ville de Quebec [Canada] from 1814 to
1836."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
