Volume 52 - Number 1 - Spring 1986

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

52:10708 Basu, Alaka; Basu, Kaushik. The greying of populations: concepts and measurements. Development Economics Research Centre Discussion Paper, No. 61, May 1985. 20 pp. University of Warwick, Department of Economics, Development Economics Research Centre: Coventry, England. In Eng.
Selected concepts and measurements concerning demographic aging are reviewed. The focus is on the development of accurate measures of demographic aging. Illustrations of the measures suggested are presented using data for India and Japan for the period 1980-2025.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10709 Batina, Raymond G. An overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and intergenerational transfers. Pub. Order No. DA8519235. 1985. 144 pp. Dissertation Abstracts International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The one sector two factor growth model with a representative agent solving a life cycle control problem is extended by allowing the altruistic agent to choose not only an intergenerational transfer optimally, either bequests or gifts, but the number of children produced as well. As a result the family's decisions regarding fertility and the transfer are interlinked through the respective shadow prices." The effect on fertility of changes in policy concerning social security, government debt, land rent taxation, and consumption taxation is explored.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Minnesota.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 46(7).

52:10710 Casady, Robert J.; Nathan, Gad; Sirken, Monroe G. Alternative dual system network estimators. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1985. 183-97 pp. Harlow, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"When there are two or more data systems and none of them enumerates the population at an acceptable completeness level, concern about the bias due to underenumeration suggests an estimator which makes joint use of data compiled by the combined imperfect data systems. Conventional dual system estimators are based on the existence of two separate data collection systems. Dual system network estimators assume a main survey and a follow-up quality check survey. The main survey adopts a multiplicity counting rule that combines two mutually exclusive partial counting rules."
Three dual system network estimators are presented. "One was previously proposed by Sirken (1979) and is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The two other estimators are proposed as potential improvements, although neither of them is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The design effects of the three estimators are compared analytically and empirically with one another, and with those of the single system conventional and network estimators."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10711 Cigno, Alessandro. Dynamic interactions between economic, ecological and demographic variables. Hull Economic Research Papers, No. 131, Aug 1985. 20 pp. University of Hull, Department of Economics and Commerce: Hull, England. In Eng.
"The present paper is intended as an introduction to models of the interaction between economic, ecological and demographic variables." The author shows how changing public perceptions over time have affected the development of such models, from the optimism of the immediate post-World War II period, in which the only constraint on a rise in living standards was conceived as being human technological inventiveness, to the relative pessimism of the 1970s, when growing evidence of natural resource scarcity became increasingly important. "By contrast, the more mature models of the sober eighties show that living standards need not fall and may be enhanced under certain conditions."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10712 Coale, A. J. Estimating the expectation of life at old ages: comments on the article by Mitra. Population Studies, Vol. 39, No. 3, Nov 1985. 507-12 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author comments on a paper by S. Mitra in which an alternative formula for estimating the expectation of life at advanced ages is proposed. A reply by Mitra (pp. 511-2) is included.
For the study by Mitra, published in 1984, see 50:30151.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10713 Dionne, Claude. Variations in the intensity of a mobility matrix. [Variations sur l'intensite d'une matrice de mobilite.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984. 333-7 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
The author presents a formula for incorporating changes in the probabilities of migratory movements into population projections and estimates. The calculations indicate that the formula may also be used to integrate the redistributive effects of external migration into a system of internal migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10714 Ghosh, Dipak. A Lewisian model of dual economy with rural-urban migration. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 32, No. 1, Feb 1985. 95-106 pp. Harlow, England. In Eng.
The author attempts to extend the traditional dual economy model, as developed by Lewis and others, to include migration. The focus is on the situation in developing countries, in which it is assumed that the labor supply in the traditional sector is virtually unlimited.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:10715 Hobcraft, John. Measuring demographic change and its consequences. In: Measuring socio- demographic change. University of Sussex, 9-11 September 1985. Conference papers. ISBN 0-904952- 20-7. 1985. 39-50 pp. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
Some questions concerning the measurement of demographic change in the United Kingdom are considered, with particular reference to the pioneering work of the Central Policy Review Staff and subsequent work by J. Ermisch. The author reviews "some of the issues in classic demographic measurement, such as age, period, and cohort analysis and other recent extensions; [discusses] issues in analyses based upon census and vital registration data; [evaluates] the advantages of various types of individual-level information for studying demographic change and relations to other social variables, with illustrations drawn from recent work; and [finishes] by indicating the major consequences of demographic change for many areas of social policy...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10716 Isserman, Andrew M. Population change and the economy: social science theories and models. ISBN 0-89838-140-1. LC 84-20188. 1986. xvii, 269 pp. Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing: Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
This publication, consisting of papers by different authors, stems from the International Conference on Forecasting Regional Population Change and Its Economic Determinants and Consequences, held in Airlie, Virginia, May 26-29, 1982. The papers focus primarily on the United States and are grouped under four main headings: the economic determinants of fertility and migration rates, regional economic-demographic modeling, interregional economic- demographic modeling, and the challenges ahead.
The conference was part of a larger project jointly sponsored by the American Statistical Association and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The project also included the development of an operational interregional economic-demographic model, ECESIS, which is described in this book.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:10717 Keyfitz, Nathan; Dionne, Claude. A demographic analysis of multiple contingencies. [L'analyse demographique des contingences multiples.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984. 187-214 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Using the multidimensional model developed by Andrei Rogers, the authors formulate a method for analyzing the interaction between and the multiplicity of certain behavior patterns such as migration. "The present article attempts to present a conceptual approach which extends classical demographic analysis to multiple phenomena or which adapts the analysis of mobility to demographic methods."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10718 Ledent, Jacques. Multidimensional mathematical demography: a survey. [La demographie mathematique multidimensionnelle: un survol.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984. 163-86 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its application to the analysis of such changes in life status as marriage, occupation, and migration is discussed. "This article presents an overview of the methods and models specific to this new branch. It stresses (1) their relationship with the methods and models of classical mathematical demography, (2) their field of application, (3) their elaboration, and (4) a few methodological and empirical questions raised by their use."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10719 Mode, C. J. Stochastic processes in demography and their computer implementation. Biomathematics, Vol. 14, ISBN 3-540-13622-3. LC 84-26707. 1985. xvii, 389 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The focus of this book is on the development and implementation of mathematical models designed to aid in the formulation and evaluation of population policies. The book is designed both for the specialist reader and for use as a textbook. The general geographic focus is worldwide.
The first two chapters are concerned with fecundability and human survivorship; the third chapter deals with theories of competing risks and multiple decrement life tables. Topics related to fertility are also discussed, including models of maternity histories and age-specific birth rates, the utilization of computer software design to implement a class of models of maternity histories, and the analysis of a large data set of maternity histories from Taiwan. A chapter is also included on the development of population projection methodologies based on stochastic population processes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10720 Mode, Charles J.; Busby, Robert C.; Jacobson, Marc E.; Pickens, Gary T. Population momentum--a formulation based on a stochastic population process. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 77, No. 1-2, Dec 1985. 157-72 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The momentum of population growth is studied within a unifying framework based on a stochastic population process with time homogeneous laws of evolution. After setting down some general asymptotic formulas for mean functions in Section 2, which involve the Fisherian reproductive value, it is shown in Section 3 that a stable initial age structure leads to formulas describing exponential growth when the time variable t is sufficiently larger. An alternative derivation of Keyfitz's formula for mean asymptotic population size, under a regime of replacement fertility and a stable initial age structure, is given in Section 4."
The authors outline "six computer simulation runs designed to study the momentum of population growth under various conditions. An example is provided whereby a population would continue to grow for about 30 years even if there were an abrupt change to a fertility regime in which mean family size was one offspring."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

52:10721 Rajulton, Fernando; Wijewickrema, Stan. An enquiry into the two basic assumptions of multistate increment-decrement life tables. IPD Working Paper, No. 1985-8, 1985. 42 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The two basic assumptions of population homogeneity and Markovian behavior on which multistate methodology is based, including that used in increment-decrement life tables, are examined. "This paper enquires into the nature of the Markovian condition from the point of view of Stochastic Processes and brings into focus an important point: In order to make the multistate model more realistic, one has necessarily to take into account the distinction between the two concepts of population homegeneity and the Markovian condition and consequently distinguish between the implications of relaxing the one as opposed to the other."
The authors then relax the homegeneity assumption and categorize the population, "with each category following its own Markov process. And it is shown that the sum of the categorized state transition probability matrices, when weighted by status-wise population proportions, yields the probability matrix of the total population. Two complementary procedures are given to illustrate that the sum of Markov processes could yield another Markov process." Finally, the authors suggest a line of distinction between the two conceptually overlapping assumptions.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10722 Tikhomirov, N. P. Statistical methods of analyzing population reproduction. [Statisticheskie metody analiza vosproizvodstva naseleniya.] LC 84-226754. 1984. 230 pp. Finansy i Statistika: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Methods of modeling population change are introduced. Consideration is given to the process of natural increase and to the dynamics of population composition by region, economic sector, and educational status. Special attention is given to the modeling of migration and labor force changes, the utilization of equilibrium and optimization models to plan and manage the reproduction of the population, and the accuracy of population projections. The geographical focus is on the USSR.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

52:10723 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). The application of economic-demographic models to development planning. Population Research Leads, No. 19, 1985. 15 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The advantages and applicability of various economic-demographic models for integrating population factors into development planning are discussed. Specific attention is given to models developed under the auspices of the U.S. government and the United Nations, including the TEMPO models, the LRPM models, the Population Dynamics Group model, the BACHUE models, and the FAO/UNFPA model. Criteria for choosing an appropriate model are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10724 Vlad, Marcel O.; Popa, Vlad T. A new nonlinear model of age-dependent population growth. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 76, No. 2, Oct 1985. 161-84 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A new nonlinear age-structured population model is presented. Within its framework the occurrence of time-persistent age distributions is possible, even if the population sizes are nonstationary. The age distribution as well as the moments of the generation index can be determined analytically. The proposed model is a nonlinear generalization of Lotka's theory of stable populations."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).


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