52:10708 Basu,
Alaka; Basu, Kaushik. The greying of populations:
concepts and measurements. Development Economics Research Centre
Discussion Paper, No. 61, May 1985. 20 pp. University of Warwick,
Department of Economics, Development Economics Research Centre:
Coventry, England. In Eng.
Selected concepts and measurements
concerning demographic aging are reviewed. The focus is on the
development of accurate measures of demographic aging. Illustrations
of the measures suggested are presented using data for India and Japan
for the period 1980-2025.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:10709 Batina,
Raymond G. An overlapping generations model with
endogenous fertility and intergenerational transfers. Pub. Order
No. DA8519235. 1985. 144 pp. Dissertation Abstracts International: Ann
Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The one sector two factor growth model
with a representative agent solving a life cycle control problem is
extended by allowing the altruistic agent to choose not only an
intergenerational transfer optimally, either bequests or gifts, but the
number of children produced as well. As a result the family's
decisions regarding fertility and the transfer are interlinked through
the respective shadow prices." The effect on fertility of changes in
policy concerning social security, government debt, land rent taxation,
and consumption taxation is explored.
This work was prepared as a
doctoral dissertation at the University of
Minnesota.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A:
Humanities and Social Sciences 46(7).
52:10710 Casady,
Robert J.; Nathan, Gad; Sirken, Monroe G. Alternative dual
system network estimators. International Statistical Review/Revue
Internationale de Statistique, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1985. 183-97 pp. Harlow,
England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"When there are two or more data
systems and none of them enumerates the population at an acceptable
completeness level, concern about the bias due to underenumeration
suggests an estimator which makes joint use of data compiled by the
combined imperfect data systems. Conventional dual system estimators
are based on the existence of two separate data collection systems.
Dual system network estimators assume a main survey and a follow-up
quality check survey. The main survey adopts a multiplicity counting
rule that combines two mutually exclusive partial counting
rules."
Three dual system network estimators are presented. "One
was previously proposed by Sirken (1979) and is the natural analogue of
the conventional dual system estimator. The two other estimators are
proposed as potential improvements, although neither of them is the
natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The design
effects of the three estimators are compared analytically and
empirically with one another, and with those of the single system
conventional and network estimators."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10711 Cigno,
Alessandro. Dynamic interactions between economic,
ecological and demographic variables. Hull Economic Research
Papers, No. 131, Aug 1985. 20 pp. University of Hull, Department of
Economics and Commerce: Hull, England. In Eng.
"The present paper
is intended as an introduction to models of the interaction between
economic, ecological and demographic variables." The author shows how
changing public perceptions over time have affected the development of
such models, from the optimism of the immediate post-World War II
period, in which the only constraint on a rise in living standards was
conceived as being human technological inventiveness, to the relative
pessimism of the 1970s, when growing evidence of natural resource
scarcity became increasingly important. "By contrast, the more mature
models of the sober eighties show that living standards need not fall
and may be enhanced under certain conditions."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10712 Coale, A.
J. Estimating the expectation of life at old ages:
comments on the article by Mitra. Population Studies, Vol. 39, No.
3, Nov 1985. 507-12 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author
comments on a paper by S. Mitra in which an alternative formula for
estimating the expectation of life at advanced ages is proposed. A
reply by Mitra (pp. 511-2) is included.
For the study by Mitra,
published in 1984, see 50:30151.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10713 Dionne,
Claude. Variations in the intensity of a mobility
matrix. [Variations sur l'intensite d'une matrice de mobilite.]
Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984. 333-7 pp.
Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
The author presents a formula for
incorporating changes in the probabilities of migratory movements into
population projections and estimates. The calculations indicate that
the formula may also be used to integrate the redistributive effects of
external migration into a system of internal
migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10714 Ghosh,
Dipak. A Lewisian model of dual economy with rural-urban
migration. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 32, No. 1,
Feb 1985. 95-106 pp. Harlow, England. In Eng.
The author attempts
to extend the traditional dual economy model, as developed by Lewis and
others, to include migration. The focus is on the situation in
developing countries, in which it is assumed that the labor supply in
the traditional sector is virtually unlimited.
Location:
Princeton University Library (PF).
52:10715 Hobcraft,
John. Measuring demographic change and its
consequences. In: Measuring socio- demographic change. University
of Sussex, 9-11 September 1985. Conference papers. ISBN 0-904952- 20-7.
1985. 39-50 pp. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]:
London, England. In Eng.
Some questions concerning the measurement
of demographic change in the United Kingdom are considered, with
particular reference to the pioneering work of the Central Policy
Review Staff and subsequent work by J. Ermisch. The author reviews
"some of the issues in classic demographic measurement, such as age,
period, and cohort analysis and other recent extensions; [discusses]
issues in analyses based upon census and vital registration data;
[evaluates] the advantages of various types of individual-level
information for studying demographic change and relations to other
social variables, with illustrations drawn from recent work; and
[finishes] by indicating the major consequences of demographic change
for many areas of social policy...."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10716 Isserman,
Andrew M. Population change and the economy: social
science theories and models. ISBN 0-89838-140-1. LC 84-20188.
1986. xvii, 269 pp. Kluwer-Nijhoff Publishing: Boston,
Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
This publication,
consisting of papers by different authors, stems from the International
Conference on Forecasting Regional Population Change and Its Economic
Determinants and Consequences, held in Airlie, Virginia, May 26-29,
1982. The papers focus primarily on the United States and are grouped
under four main headings: the economic determinants of fertility and
migration rates, regional economic-demographic modeling, interregional
economic- demographic modeling, and the challenges ahead.
The
conference was part of a larger project jointly sponsored by the
American Statistical Association and the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
The project also included the development of an operational
interregional economic-demographic model, ECESIS, which is described in
this book.
Location: New York Public Library.
52:10717 Keyfitz,
Nathan; Dionne, Claude. A demographic analysis of multiple
contingencies. [L'analyse demographique des contingences
multiples.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984.
187-214 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Using
the multidimensional model developed by Andrei Rogers, the authors
formulate a method for analyzing the interaction between and the
multiplicity of certain behavior patterns such as migration. "The
present article attempts to present a conceptual approach which extends
classical demographic analysis to multiple phenomena or which adapts
the analysis of mobility to demographic methods."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10718 Ledent,
Jacques. Multidimensional mathematical demography: a
survey. [La demographie mathematique multidimensionnelle: un
survol.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984.
163-86 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The
development of multidimensional mathematical demography and its
application to the analysis of such changes in life status as marriage,
occupation, and migration is discussed. "This article presents an
overview of the methods and models specific to this new branch. It
stresses (1) their relationship with the methods and models of
classical mathematical demography, (2) their field of application, (3)
their elaboration, and (4) a few methodological and empirical questions
raised by their use."
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:10719 Mode, C.
J. Stochastic processes in demography and their computer
implementation. Biomathematics, Vol. 14, ISBN 3-540-13622-3. LC
84-26707. 1985. xvii, 389 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New
York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The focus of
this book is on the development and implementation of mathematical
models designed to aid in the formulation and evaluation of population
policies. The book is designed both for the specialist reader and for
use as a textbook. The general geographic focus is worldwide.
The
first two chapters are concerned with fecundability and human
survivorship; the third chapter deals with theories of competing risks
and multiple decrement life tables. Topics related to fertility are
also discussed, including models of maternity histories and
age-specific birth rates, the utilization of computer software design
to implement a class of models of maternity histories, and the analysis
of a large data set of maternity histories from Taiwan. A chapter is
also included on the development of population projection methodologies
based on stochastic population processes.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10720 Mode,
Charles J.; Busby, Robert C.; Jacobson, Marc E.; Pickens, Gary
T. Population momentum--a formulation based on a
stochastic population process. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 77,
No. 1-2, Dec 1985. 157-72 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The
momentum of population growth is studied within a unifying framework
based on a stochastic population process with time homogeneous laws of
evolution. After setting down some general asymptotic formulas for
mean functions in Section 2, which involve the Fisherian reproductive
value, it is shown in Section 3 that a stable initial age structure
leads to formulas describing exponential growth when the time variable
t is sufficiently larger. An alternative derivation of Keyfitz's
formula for mean asymptotic population size, under a regime of
replacement fertility and a stable initial age structure, is given in
Section 4."
The authors outline "six computer simulation runs
designed to study the momentum of population growth under various
conditions. An example is provided whereby a population would continue
to grow for about 30 years even if there were an abrupt change to a
fertility regime in which mean family size was one
offspring."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
52:10721 Rajulton,
Fernando; Wijewickrema, Stan. An enquiry into the two
basic assumptions of multistate increment-decrement life tables.
IPD Working Paper, No. 1985-8, 1985. 42 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel,
Interuniversity Programme in Demography: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
The two basic assumptions of population homogeneity and Markovian
behavior on which multistate methodology is based, including that used
in increment-decrement life tables, are examined. "This paper enquires
into the nature of the Markovian condition from the point of view of
Stochastic Processes and brings into focus an important point: In
order to make the multistate model more realistic, one has necessarily
to take into account the distinction between the two concepts of
population homegeneity and the Markovian condition and consequently
distinguish between the implications of relaxing the one as opposed to
the other."
The authors then relax the homegeneity assumption and
categorize the population, "with each category following its own Markov
process. And it is shown that the sum of the categorized state
transition probability matrices, when weighted by status-wise
population proportions, yields the probability matrix of the total
population. Two complementary procedures are given to illustrate that
the sum of Markov processes could yield another Markov process."
Finally, the authors suggest a line of distinction between the two
conceptually overlapping assumptions.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10722 Tikhomirov,
N. P. Statistical methods of analyzing population
reproduction. [Statisticheskie metody analiza vosproizvodstva
naseleniya.] LC 84-226754. 1984. 230 pp. Finansy i Statistika: Moscow,
USSR. In Rus.
Methods of modeling population change are introduced.
Consideration is given to the process of natural increase and to the
dynamics of population composition by region, economic sector, and
educational status. Special attention is given to the modeling of
migration and labor force changes, the utilization of equilibrium and
optimization models to plan and manage the reproduction of the
population, and the accuracy of population projections. The
geographical focus is on the USSR.
Location: U.S. Library
of Congress, Washington, D.C.
52:10723 United
Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
[ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). The application of
economic-demographic models to development planning. Population
Research Leads, No. 19, 1985. 15 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
The
advantages and applicability of various economic-demographic models for
integrating population factors into development planning are discussed.
Specific attention is given to models developed under the auspices of
the U.S. government and the United Nations, including the TEMPO models,
the LRPM models, the Population Dynamics Group model, the BACHUE
models, and the FAO/UNFPA model. Criteria for choosing an appropriate
model are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:10724 Vlad,
Marcel O.; Popa, Vlad T. A new nonlinear model of
age-dependent population growth. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol.
76, No. 2, Oct 1985. 161-84 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"A new
nonlinear age-structured population model is presented. Within its
framework the occurrence of time-persistent age distributions is
possible, even if the population sizes are nonstationary. The age
distribution as well as the moments of the generation index can be
determined analytically. The proposed model is a nonlinear
generalization of Lotka's theory of stable
populations."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
