52:10101 Diop-Maes,
Louise-Marie. An attempt to estimate population levels in
Black Africa during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. [Essai
d'evaluation de la population de l'Afrique noire aux XVe et XVIe
siecles.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1985. 855-89 pp. Paris,
France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
An attempt is made to
estimate population levels in sub-Saharan Africa before the coming of
the slave-trade in the seventeenth century using data primarily from
archaeological sources. The author develops the hypothesis that the
African population of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries was both of
considerable size and growing. A commentary by Jean-Noel Biraben (pp.
884-8) argues that the data to support such a hypothesis are inadequate
and that environmental conditions in Africa have always prevented the
development of large and dense population
concentrations.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:10102 Kito,
Hiroshi. Population history of Japan's 2000 years.
ISBN 4-569-20968-8. 1983. 206 pp. PHP Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population trends in Japan over 2,000 years are reviewed. The
focus is on the relationship between socioeconomic and demographic
change. The first three chapters cover the period up to the nineteenth
century. The final three chapters are concerned with the Edo period,
for which considerably more data are available. In these, the author
attempts to reconstruct the demographic outline of a preindustrial
population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10103 Shineberg,
Dorothy. A new look at the historical demography of New
Caledonia. [Un nouveau regard sur la demographie historique de la
Nouvelle-Caledonie.] Journal de la Societe des Oceanistes, Vol. 39, No.
76, Jun 1983. 33-43 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The demographic history of New Caledonia is reviewed. The author
concludes that the official data concerning Melanesians as reported in
nineteenth-century censuses are flawed, thus invalidating most
population trends based on these estimates. The massive depopulation
that, according to the census data, took place during the nineteenth
century did not in fact occur. Reasons for these errors and their
general acceptance are discussed.
Location: Princeton
University Library (PR).
52:10104 Atoh,
Makoto; Itoh, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Shigesato; Ishikawa, Akira.
Re-estimation of the population by age and sex and vital rates in
postwar Japan. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems,
No. 176, Oct 1985. 1-17 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"In this study Japanese population by age and sex was re-estimated
for the postwar years and both fertility and mortality rates were also
re- estimated based on these revised populations." Using the cohort
component method, the authors analyze data from seven censuses
conducted between 1950 and 1980, adjusting for international migration.
The revised population figures are then used to re- estimate age- and
sex-specific death probabilities and to derive life table functions for
the postwar years.
Problems with the reliability of the census data
are emphasized, in particular the under-enumeration of the total
population and of specific subgroups, and the bias in offical birthrate
estimates arising from the procedure for estimating mid-year
populations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10105 Banister,
Judith. The population of Vietnam. International
Population Reports, Series P-95, No. 77, Oct 1985. iii, 43 pp. U.S.
Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
A review of the
current population situation in Viet Nam is presented. Topics covered
include sources of population data; trends in population size and
growth; population density and distribution; minority groups;
international migration; official vital rates and their sources; health
and mortality; marriage, family planning, and fertility; the
reconstruction of population dynamics; and future
prospects.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10106 Bartlema,
Jan; Chackiel, Juan; Hill, Kenneth; Soliz, Augusto.
Fertility and mortality in Bolivia: 1950-1976. In: Fertility
and Mortality in Bolivia and Guatemala. Committee on Population and
Demography Report, No. 28, 1985. 3-62 pp. National Academy Press:
Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population
and Demography: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one of two Latin
American country case studies developed by the Panel on Latin America
of the National Research Council's Committee on Population and
Demography. It consists of a detailed study of fertility and mortality
trends in Bolivia from 1950 to 1976. The data are from censuses,
surveys, and vital statistics. The results indicate continuing high
fertility and infant mortality and declining general mortality; the
increasing rate of natural increase has been largely offset by an
increase in emigration.
For a similar case study concerning
Guatemala by Juan Chackiel et al., published in the same report, see
elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
52:10107 Booth,
Heather. Fertility and mortality in Vanuatu. The
demographic analysis of the 1979 census. Pacific Population Paper,
No. 1, Nov 1985. xv, 75 pp. South Pacific Commission: Noumea, New
Caledonia. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
A demographic analysis of data
from the 1979 census of Vanuatu is presented. Available data sources,
including the 1967 census, vital statistics, and hospital records, are
first reviewed. Next, consideration is given to the quality of the 1979
census data. Chapters are then presented on the estimation of mortality
and fertility. It is noted that, contrary to the situation in most
populations, female mortality appears to be higher than male mortality.
The study concludes by presenting actual estimates of mortality and
fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10108 Brazil.
Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica [IBGE] (Rio de
Janeiro, Brazil); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia
[CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Brazil: population estimates
and projections, 1950-2025. [Brasil: estimaciones y proyecciones
de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/BRA, No. 1; E/CEPAL/CELADE/R.2,
Jul 1984. 85 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]:
Santiago, Chile. In Spa; Por.
Population estimates and projections
for Brazil for the period 1950-2025 are presented in table and graph
form. Data are included on total population, population by age and
sex, mortality, fertility, and life expectancy for the period
1950-1980, as well as projections for the period 1980-2025. The
methodology used is described.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10109 Canada.
Statistics Canada. Demography Division. Population Estimates Section
(Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual estimates of
population by marital status, age, sex and components of growth for
Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1985. Vol. 3: third
issue. [Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population
suivant l'etat matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de
l'accroissement, Canada, provinces et territoires au ler juin, 1985.
Volume 3: troisieme edition.] Pub. Order No. 91- 210. Jan 1986. 102
pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Estimates of the population of
Canada are provided by age, sex, marital status, and province or
territory. Data are also included by age and sex on the components of
population growth, including births, deaths, and international and
internal migration. The data on marriage and divorce provide an
insight into current structural changes in marital
status.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10110 Chackiel,
Juan; Hill, Kenneth; Isaacs, Mario. Fertility and
mortality in Guatemala: 1950-1973. In: Fertility and Mortality in
Bolivia and Guatemala. Committee on Population and Demography Report,
No. 28, 1985. 63-161 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.;
National Research Council, Committee on Population and Demography:
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one of two Latin American country
case studies developed by the Panel on Latin America of the National
Research Council's Committee on Population and Demography. It consists
of a detailed study of fertility and mortality trends in Guatemala from
1950 to 1973. The results indicate continuing high levels of both
fertility and infant mortality; mortality has declined but remains high
in comparison with other Latin American countries. Life expectancy
increased significantly over the period under review.
For a similar
case study concerning Bolivia by Jan Bartlema et al., published in the
same report, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10111 Cuba.
Comite Estatal de Estadisticas (Havana, Cuba). The
population of Cuba has reached 10 million. [La poblacion de Cuba
alcanza los 10 millones de habitantes.] Revista Estadistica, Vol. 7,
No. 14, Dec 1984. 73-87 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This report,
based on data from the 1981 census, notes that the population of Cuba
reached 10 million in August 1984. A review of population trends since
1774 is included.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:10112 Cuba.
Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones
Estadisticas [INSIE] (Havana, Cuba). Principal demographic
aspects of the Cuban population in the year 1984. [Principales
aspectos demograficos de la poblacion cubana en el ano 1984.] Apr 1985.
iv, 57 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This report contains tables,
graphs, and a discussion of data on population growth, population
density, composition by sex and rural and urban residence, spatial
distribution, natural increase, fertility, mortality, internal and
international migration, nuptiality, and divorce in Cuba in 1984.
Appendixes contain information on the Cuban population between 15 and
29 years of age as well as international
comparisons.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10113 Dommen,
Arthur J. Laos in 1985: the year of the census. Asian
Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1, Jan 1986. 112-7 pp. Berkeley, California. In
Eng.
Some preliminary results from the 1985 census of Laos are
presented. Population totals by province and sex are
included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).
52:10114 Findl,
Peter. Current data on population and employment: current
trends in demographic development in the year 1984. [Aktuelle
Daten zur Bevolkerung und Erwerbstatigkeit: aktuelle Trends der
Bevolkerungsentwicklung im Jahre 1984.] Demographische Informationen,
1985. 81-90 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
Information is presented
on population and employment trends in Austria in 1984. Some
comparative data for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered
include changes in population size, the decline in fertility, mortality
and life expectancy, international migration and naturalizations,
marriages and divorces, age structure, the dependency ratio, labor
force participation, and families.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10115 Graham,
John W.; Beller, Andrea H. A note on the number and living
arrangements of women with children under 21 from an absent father:
revised estimates from the April 1979 and 1982 Current Population
Surveys. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 13, No.
2, Jul 1985. 209-14 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This note
discusses two problems in the March/April Match Files of the CPS
[Current Population Survey]. One is the overestimate of the population
of [U.S.] women with children under 21 from an absent father and the
consequent underestimate of the proportion of this population awarded,
due, and receiving child support payments. The other is the large
underestimate of the proportion of divorced, separated, and
never-married mothers living as subfamilies. Corrected estimates for
each of these items are obtained."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10116 Hache,
Jean-Guy. A model for estimating the population of census
districts and federal electoral districts. [Modele d'estimation de
la population des divisions de recensement et des circonscriptions
electorales federales.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No.
2, Oct 1984. 339-46 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
A method for
estimating population levels for subgroups when given data for the
larger population is described. The author uses the method to estimate
the population of those age 15-64 in the census districts of Canada for
the intercensal period 1976-1980 using data for the provinces. The
1981 estimates are then compared to the actual 1981 census findings in
order to assess the accuracy of the method.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10117 Hu,
Huanyong. Population geography and population division of
Xinjiang. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1984. 15- 20 pp. Beijing,
China. In Chi.
While the northwest province of Xinjiang is China's
largest province, its 1982 population of 13,080,000 comprises slightly
more than one percent of the nation's total population. A brief
description of Xinjiang's 10 population subdivisions includes data on
total population and density, topography, and arable land. A chart
summarizing this information is also presented.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).; Johns Hopkins University,
Population Information Program, Baltimore, Md.
52:10118 Japan.
Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as
of October 1, 1984. Population Estimates Series, No. 57, 1985. 89
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng; Jpn.
Population estimates for Japan for
1984 are presented by age and sex, by prefecture and sex, and by
prefecture, five-year age group, and sex.
For a previous report in
this series, published in 1984, see 50:30099.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10119 Luxembourg.
Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC]
(Luxembourg). Recent demographic trends. [Evolution
demographique recente.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 31, No. 7, 1985.
178-86 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
The demographic situation in
Luxembourg in 1984 is reviewed. Significant developments include a
continuation of the decline in the number of marriages, a record number
of divorces, and an increase in the number of births to those of
Luxembourg nationality coupled with a decline in the foreign
population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10120 Monnier,
A. Demographic trends: Europe and the developed countries
overseas. [La conjoncture demographique: l'Europe et les pays
developpes d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1985.
749-63 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent data from official and
published sources are presented for 37 selected European and other
developed countries. Information is included on population levels;
numbers of births and deaths; rates of birth, mortality, infant
mortality, fertility, nuptiality, and divorce; numbers of abortions;
and life expectancy at birth by sex.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10121 Polska
Akademia Nauk. Komitet Nauk Demograficznych (Warsaw, Poland).
The 1984 report. The demographic situation in Poland. Natural
movement and migration in Poland in 1983. [Raport 1984. Sytuacja
demograficzna Polski. Ruch naturalny i wedrowkowy ludnosci Polski w
1983 roku.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 2/80, 1985. 67-126 pp. Warsaw,
Poland. In Pol.
This is a report on the population situation in
Poland in 1983 and on likely future developments. It consists of
extracts from a longer report prepared by a government commission
charged with the coordination of research on population policy
issues.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10122 Rallu,
Jean-Louis. The population of New Caledonia. [La
population de la Nouvelle-Caledonie.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 4-5,
Jul-Oct 1985. 725-44 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Developments in the population of New Caledonia since 1853,
particularly recent trends, are analyzed using official statistics.
Particular emphasis is given to differentials in growth rates among the
three main subgroups of the population: the Melanesians, people of
European descent, and other ethnic groups including Indonesians,
Tahitians, and Wallisians. Internal and international migration and
regional differentials are also discussed.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10123 Shaikh,
Kashem; Mostafa, G.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Sarder, A. M.; Molla, Ibrahim;
Wojtyniak, Bogdan. Demographic Surveillance
System--Matlab. Volume fourteen: vital events and migration--tables,
1983. ICDDR,B Scientific Report, No. 64, Dec 1985. 61 pp.
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh:
Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This is the 14th volume of a series of
scientific reports....It presents results of vital events and migration
for the year 1983 of the Demographic Surveillance System (DSS), in the
Matlab area of Bangladesh."
For Vol. 13, also published in 1985 by
Susan Zimicki et al., see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10124 Shaikh,
Kashem; Mostafa, G.; Sarder, A. M.; Wojtyniak, Bogdan.
Demographic Surveillance System--Matlab. Volume twelve: vital
events and migration--tables, 1982. ICDDR,B Scientific Report, No.
62, Aug 1984. 61 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease
Research, Bangladesh: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This is the 12th
volume in a series of scientific reports....It presents results of
vital events and migrations for the year 1982 of the Demographic
Surveillance System (DSS), in the Matlab area of Bangladesh."
For a
previous report, published by Nridul K. Chowdhury et al., see 50:10111.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10125 Starsinic,
Donald E. Patterns of metropolitan area and county
population growth: 1980 to 1984. Current Population Reports,
Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 976, Oct 1985.
iv, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains provisional population estimates for July 1,
1984, for individual [U.S.] metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) and
their component counties and central cities, as defined by the Office
of Management and Budget (OMB) through October 12, 1984. The report
also contains April 1, 1980, census counts and a discussion of trends
since 1980. Summaries for the United States, regions, divisions, and
States are presented for the population in metropolitan areas, inside
and outside central cities, and outside metropolitan areas. Selected
data also appear for counties."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10126 United
Kingdom. Scotland. Registrar General (Edinburgh, Scotland).
1984 population estimates, Scotland. ISBN 0-11-492469-4. 1985.
11 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
"This booklet contains
estimates of the population of Scotland by age, sex and area as at 30
June 1984."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10127 United
States. Hawaii. Department of Planning and Economic Development.
Research and Economic Analysis Division (Honolulu, Hawaii).
Estimated population by age, sex, and counties, 1970-1982.
Hawaii Statistical Report, No. 179, Nov 12, 1985. 20 pp. Honolulu,
Hawaii. In Eng.
"This report presents 1970 to 1979 intercensal
estimates and 1980 to 1982 postcensal provisional estimates of the
resident population of Hawaii by age, sex, and county. The estimates,
prepared by the Population Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census,
are for five-year age groups to age 85 and over."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10128 Australia.
Bureau of Statistics (Canberra, Australia). Projections of
the population of the states and territories of Australia 1981 to
2021. Pub. Order No. 3214.0. May 9, 1983. iii, 24 pp. Canberra,
Australia. In Eng.
"This publication contains summary results of
Australian, State and Territory population projections for the period
1981 to 2021, based on preliminary estimates of the population at 30
June 1981." Projected growth rates, population totals by state and
territory, population distribution, and median ages are
summarized.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10129 Cohen, Joel
E. Population forecasts and confidence intervals for
Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches.
Demography, Vol. 23, No. 1, Feb 1986. 105-26 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.
"This paper compares several methods of generating confidence
intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic
model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in
vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of
population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980
inclusive." Variations in confidence intervals between methods and
historical periods are noted.
"Procedures for estimating a range of
confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is
that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical
understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of
confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches
not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the
estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty."
An earlier version of
this paper was presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population
Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall
1984, p. 443).
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
52:10130 de Beer, J.
A. A. Predictability of demographic changes in the short
run. [Voorspelbaarheid van demografische ontwikkelingen op de
korte termijn.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 33, No. 11, Nov
1985. 46-58 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the value of univariate time series models to
assess the accuracy of official short-term population forecasts in the
Netherlands. "Three time series methods (exponential smoothing,
ARIMA-model and structural time series model) are applied to Dutch data
on live births, deaths, marriages, immigrants and emigrants." The data
concern the period 1979-1984. The methods are also applied to data for
the period 1970-1975 for comparative purposes.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10131 Garcia,
Agustin; Cubilla, Alvaro; Vissuetti, Ali; Medica, Vilma.
Republic of Panama. Population projections by sex and age group:
1980-2025. [Republica de Panama. Proyecciones de poblacion por
sexo y grupos de edad: anos 1980-2025.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin,
No. 903, Apr 29, 1983. 1-23 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Population projections for Panama to the year 2025 are presented.
The estimates are based on official data, including data from the 1980
census. Four alternative projections are
provided.
Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de
Demografia, Santiago, Chile.; Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10132 Germany,
Federal Republic of. Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und
Raumordnung (Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of). Current
data and forecasts of spatial development: population and households
up to the year 2000. [Aktuelle Daten und Prognosen zur raumlichen
Entwicklung: Bevolkerung und Haushalte bis 2000.] Informationen zur
Raumentwicklung, No. 12, 1984. [203] pp. Bonn, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Ger.
This is a collection of papers on regional
population trends and projections for the Federal Republic of Germany
up to the year 2000. The papers are based on recent projections
developed by the Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und
Raumordnung. Individual papers deal with the model used in these
regional projections, projections of private households, spatial
differences in the effects of population trends up to the year 2000,
and selected results of the regional projections.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10133 Keilman, N.
W. Internal and external consistency in multidimensional
population projection models. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 17,
No. 11, Nov 1985. 1,473-98 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this
paper the impact of consistency requirements upon the formulation of
multidimensional population projection models is dealt with." Both
internal and external consistency problems are considered. The paper
provides internal and external consistency algorithms that control for
stock and for flow variables. "Two approaches are discussed: a simple
proportional adjustment for each relevant demographic component and an
approach that minimises deviations in age-specific patterns of the
input rates. Both algorithms are illustrated using data from the
Netherlands."
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).
52:10134 Keyfitz,
Nathan. A probability representation of future
population. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 11, No.
2, 1985. 179-91 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre; Ger.
A method for deriving population projections
that are based on range rather than point estimates is applied to the
case of Indonesia. Input parameters, including the initial conditions
and the future birth, death, and migration rates are determined, and
future fluctuations are assumed to be the same as past variations in
the input parameters. A numerical distribution for the future is
obtained by randomly choosing numbers for each input, basing a
projection on those numbers, and then determining the corresponding
distribution of the significant characteristics of the future
population.
The relative merits and disadvantages of this approach
to population projections are considered. The author's program,
written in BASIC for the IBM PC, is available upon
request.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10135 Land,
Kenneth C. Methods for national population forecasts: a
critical review. Texas Population Research Center Papers, Series
7: 1985, No. 7.001, 1985. 44, [9] pp. University of Texas, Texas
Population Research Center: Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"The purpose of
this paper is to critically survey three widely used classes
of...methods [for forecasting national populations]--demographic
accounting/cohort component projection methods, statistical time series
methods, and structural modeling methods. In each case, [the author
seeks] to identify the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses
of the methods."
The organizing principle of the survey "is an
identification of the typical forecast time horizons associated with
each forecasting method. This leads, in turn, to an articulation of
factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population
forecasts. The paper concludes with recommendations for additional
research in each class of methods and in population forecasting
generally."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10136 Nelissen,
J.; Vossen, A. A short-term population projection
model. [Een bevolkingsprognosemodel voor de korte termijn.]
NPDO-Onderzoeksrapport, No. 16, Oct 1983. 188 pp. Nationaal Programma
Demografisch Onderzoek [NPDO]: Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This
study presents a model for forecasting short-term population trends in
the Netherlands. The arguments for selecting an open,
interdisciplinary approach, in which the dynamics of the population
system are represented cross-sectionally, are outlined. Relationships
among the selected demographic variables are defined using the
GINI-model. Separate consideration is given to fertility, marriage
patterns, and international migration.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10137
Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling
Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population
forecast for the Netherlands, 1984-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor
Nederland 1984-2035.] 1985. 69 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with
sum. in Eng.
Population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented
up to the year 2035. It is noted that the total population will begin
to decline shortly after the turn of the century. The methodology and
assumptions used in the preparation of the forecasts are described.
Consideration is given to changes in age distribution, births, deaths,
international migration, and marriages and
divorces.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10138 Rideng,
Arne; Sorensen, Knut O.; Sorlie, Kjetil. A model for
regional population forecasting. [Modell for regionale
befolkningsframskrivinger.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No.
85/7, ISBN 82-537- 2162-5. 1985. 71 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra:
Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
A detailed description of the
model used for making population forecasts in Norway is presented. The
focus is on regional forecasts and the administrative divisions used
for such forecasts and on changes to be made in these administrative
boundaries for future forecasts.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10139 Smith,
Stanley K. Accounting for migration in cohort-component
projections of state and local populations. Demography, Vol. 23,
No. 1, Feb 1986. 127-35 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This article
is concerned with the problems involved in forecasting migration trends
for purposes of making population projections, with particular
reference to projections for the United States at the state and local
level. The author develops "three different models for projecting
migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates.
Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data
and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations
of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections
are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as
forecasts of population growth."
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
52:10140 Vu, My
T. World population projections 1984. Short- and
long-term estimates by age and sex with related demographic
statistics. ISBN 0-8213-0431-3. LC 84-20932. 1984. xxix, 449 pp.
World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report gives detailed
population projections by age and sex for each country at 5-year
intervals from 1980 to 2025 and at 25-year intervals for a 175-year
period." The implied rates of fertility, mortality, and migration used
in preparing the projections are included. Projections are also
presented by region and by countries grouped by income. The data are
from a variety of official sources, including the United Nations, the
U.S. Bureau of the Census, and the World Bank.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10141 Vu, My
T. World population projections 1985. Short- and
long-term estimates by age and sex with related demographic
statistics. ISBN 0-8018-3322-1. LC 85-23083. 1985. xxvi, 451 pp.
Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland/London, England;
World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is an updated version of
the population projections for 1984 published by the World Bank and
used to provide background data for the Bank's policy work on
population and development. The projections are presented by age and
sex for each country of the world from 1980 to 2025 at 5-year
intervals, and at 25-year intervals from 2130 to 2155, together with
selected demographic indicators. The projections are also presented by
region and by countries grouped by income. The methods and assumptions
on which the projections are based are explained. The data are from a
variety of sources, including the United Nations, the U.S. Bureau of
the Census, the European Community, and the World Bank.
For the 1984
projections, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10142 Craig,
John. Ward population trends 1971 to 1981. Population
Trends, No. 42, Winter 1985. 30-5 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Wards are relatively small areas for which inter-censal population
changes are readily available; they give a detailed, country-wide
insight into patterns and trends. This article shows that although the
total population of England and Wales changed only slightly from 1971
to 1981 there were appreciable shifts at the ward level and analysing
these adds considerably to local authority
analyses."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10143 Japan.
Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan).
Population reproduction rates for all Japan: 1983. Jinko
Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 173, Jan 1985. 74-81
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Changes in population reproduction rates
in Japan from 1925 to 1983 are analyzed using official data. The
results indicate that the fertility rate is currently increasing
slightly, while the death rate continues to
decline.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
52:10144 Teitelbaum,
Michael S.; Winter, Jay M. The fear of population
decline. ISBN 0-12-685190-5. LC 85-3930. 1985. xii, 201 pp.
Academic Press: Orlando, Florida/London, England. In Eng.
This book
provides a survey of the subject of population decline in the context
of the demographic history of the United States and Europe including
the USSR since the mid-1800s. Following an overview of common
misunderstandings concerning population decline, the authors "proceed
in Chapters 2 and 3 to demonstrate the complex ways in which fears of
population decline emerged in the period 1870-1940. In Chapter 4,
[they] describe developments in the period 1945-1965, when these fears
temporarily receded."
Two subsequent chapters deal with aspects of
the observed fertility decline since 1965 and various policy responses.
In the concluding section, the authors "summarize the long debate over
the nature and possible dangers of population decline, and then turn to
the question of likely demographic trends, and what to do about them,
in the foreseeable future." Fertility data and the texts of selected
official policy statements on the subject are included in
appendixes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
